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Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use in EU 27
Meeting EUROSTAT - 7 and 8 October 2010
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The Fertilizers Europe forecast
The crop-based approach.
The « fertilizer consumption parameters »:Basic parameters :
• Crop areas.• Nutrients application rates.• Crop yield (or production).
>> Help to later assess the evolution of the application rates.When relevant : % of crop area fertilized.
>> To extrapolate actual fertilizer consumption from total area, whenonly effective application rates are known.
When collecting crop data:• Focus on main « fertilizer consuming crops », make assessment
when necessary.• Better to assess part of the market with reliable data, then to
extrapolate to 100% of the known fertilizer consumption
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The Fertilizers Europe forecast
The crop based approach (continued).
Main methodologies to achieve crop-based approach :
Agro-economic models adapted when :• Crop data is easily available to « feed » the model.• No major policy change (break in trend) is foreseen.
Expert based approach better adapted when :• Data availability is partial or critical.• Major policy changes are expected during the period.
>> This is often the situation in EU
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The Fertilizers Europe forecast
Particular requirements crop based / expert based
The forecast is made by « projection » and not byextrapolating time series (as in models), therefore :
A sound and solid basis is key :• Data for base year should be as solid (and reliable) as
possible.• Cross the estimated values for current year with known
market fertilizer consumption (sales).
A clear description of the future market conditions is alsoessential :
>> Defining a « scenario for the future » greatly facilitates the « projection » of the crop parameters, and help to justifythe foreseen evolution.
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The objectives, principles and main steps
of Fertilizers Europe methodology
The Fertilizers Europe forecast
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Objectives, principles and main steps of ourmethodology
Objectives & principles
Long term consumption forecast :
Parallel and convergent with sales forecast:« Full convergence » by campaign n-2/n-3.
An expert based approach
A « bottom-up » procedure, step by step :Per country.Crop acreage forecast, considering :
• Global and European Agro-economic trends.• Agricultural policies.
Application rate forecast, considering : • Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices.• Environmental policies.
Short term to long term forecast :5 Campaigns : n-2/n-1, n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10
Based on « scenarios for the future » :General agro-economic trends, global and European.National projections.
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Time schedule
Various stages of the process : an expert approach
1/ Building a scenario : MarchThe « European context », prepared by the leader of the WG :
• Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe.• Agricultural & Environmental policies.
2/ Our scenario for a European agriculture. AprilThe impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG.
3/ Adapting our scenario to national level. MayThe impact of national situation and policies >> the « country report ».
4/ Making the national forecast. May- June
5/ Finalizing the European approach. JuneCritical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario.
6/ Finalizing the EU forecast : integration of all nationals. July
7/ Publishing and circulating the forecast. September
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Assumptions and scenario
Building the EU scenario
Background information :Quantitative
• Global : FAPRI, USDA & FAO-OECD• EU : EU Commission (DG Agri,EEA)
Qualitative• Contact with EU experts (Agri & Env)
Building the scenario :Selecting relevant information for our forecastersProposing a draft scenarioDiscussing the scenario in plenum
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Background information for the EU scenario
Commodity market development in EuropeFertilizers Europe Forecast 2009/2019
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Commodity market development in EuropeFertilizers Europe Forecast 2009/2019
Background information for the EU scenario
EC Prospects for Agric Markets & Income in the EU, 2008-2015
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The National approach
Developing the Expertise
Example: Sources of information for Application rate
Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources).Advisory service, consultants.Publications (scientific, “Farmers weekly”).Your control calculation.Watch “other nutrient sources” (National budget !) :
farmyard manure, slurrysewage sludgeothers
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http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/2007/default.asp
http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/environment/land-manage/nutrient/pdf/bsfp2007.pdf
Statistical yearbook.Newspapers, journals, etc…News agencies e.g. Agra Europe.Press releases :
- Ministry of Agriculture.- Growers associations.- Newspaper / journal for merchants.- International produce traders.- Plant breeders / -associations.
The National approach
Sources of information for Crop area planted :
The Fertilizers Europe forecast
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Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes.National programmes.National / regional limitations.points of discussion (conferences, media).Intensity of discussions (conferences, media).Direct contacts (ministry, NGOs, administration).
The National approach
Sources of information for Environmental policy :
The Fertilizers Europe forecast
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« Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer use in EU »
Three main outputs :
The Fertilizers Europe forecast data book (internal use).
The Fertilizers Europe forecast leaflet (public circulation).
The Fertilizers Europe forecast presentation.
( A new leaflet in project )
The Fertilizers Europe forecast
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Outcome example – Forecast 2009/2019
Forecast changes in farming food crops in EU27
barley
grain maize
rye, oats, rice
potato
wheat
sugarbeet
oilseedrape
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Area (ha)
Yield (q/ha)
Forecast changes : 2018/19 - Ref. **
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0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
N P2O5 K2O
Fertilizer nutrient consumption in the European Union 27
Nutrient (million tonnes)
+ 3.0
- 4.4
- 9.7
Reference Reference
2009 2007
+ 4.1
+ 7.7
+ 3.9
Forecast 2009/2019 – evolution with 2009 and 2007 reference
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Forecast changes in fertilizer use EU15, 2009/2019
Austria
Germany Finland
U K
GreeceItaly
Netherlands
EU 15
EU 12
EU 27
Denmark
France
Spain
Portugal
Sweden
Belgium+ Lux
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium
Forecast changes % in regional fertilizer use
Ireland
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The Fertilizers Europe forecast
Fertilizers Europe Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use,
a reference in EU
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The Fertilizers Europe forecast
Fertilizers Europe Forecast, a reference in EU.
Organizations:IFA and FAOEU Commission: DG AGRI, DG ENV, DG TRENEUROSTATEEAIIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)COPA COGECAEISA (European Initiative for Sustainable development in Agriculture)
Studies, preparation of legislationsCAPRI modelNEC directiveWells to Wheels >> 2008 Directive on Renewable EnergyGothenburg Protocol (UN ECE)Revision ECCP 1