Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
Juba Regions
Post GU 2011
17th August 2011
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
Information for Better Livelihoods
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
- Food security field analysts had a full access into all livelihoods of
both regions
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro pastoralists) Southern Agropastoral in Middle Juba (Sakow /Salagle ) are more crop dependent, while
southern agropastoral in L. Juba (Afmadow/Hagar) are more livestock dependent. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases
Lower Juba Agro pastoral: more livestock-dependent; main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.
South-East Pastoral (cattle, goat /sheep): mainly situated in Lower Juba (38,810 people - 68%), but also have significant numbers in Middle Juba (18,232 people – 32%).
Riverine (M. and L. Juba): the livelihood is situated along the Juba river and extends to both regions but most of it is in Middle Juba (Sakow, Buale and Jilib districts – 57% of population; 43% in L. Juba disticts of Jammame and Kismayo). Main source of income of poor: crop sales, wage labor, self-employment (collection of bush products); main sources of food of poor: own production and market purchase
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists)
Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products
Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel (SIP), cattle
(SEP), sheep/goat
• Start of Season: Generally, started late, 3rd Dekad of April, ended early in 2nd Dekad of May with intermittent dry period in both regions.
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity, ended early in 2nd of May 2011.
• Normal rains: In localized areas in terms of amount (pastoral livelihood in Afmadow) but poor frequency and distribution.
• Poor rains: whole districts of Sakow/Salagle in M. Juba, Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe in L. Juba experienced poor rainfall.
• Hagaa rains: late Hagaa rains received along the coastal strip of L. Juba (Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe) in 3rd dekade of July 2011
ClimatePerformance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
ClimateVegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Security Situation:• Remains highly volatile • Military skirmishes along the Kenya
/Somalia border
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
• Restricted trade movement across the borders from Somalia (Kismayo) to Kenya and vice versa.
• Limited population movement• Restricted pastoral mobility,
particularly in Diif, Tabata, Qooqaani and Jiira grazing lands in Afmadow district
Civil Insecurity
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends in Juba regions
Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Total CerealGu 2011 as
% of Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu
PWA(1995-2010)
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year
average(2006-2010)
Maize Sorghum
Afmadow 20 1 21 5% 6% 10%
Hagar 8 3 11 2% 3% 5%
Badhaadhe 0 0 0 0% 0% 0%
Jamaame 245 0 245 11% 7% 14%
Kismaayo 45 0 45 3% 6% 9%Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2011 Total
318 4 321 6% 6% 11%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates
DistrictsGu 2011 Production in MT
Total CerealGu 2011 as %
of Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA(1995-2010)
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year
average(2006-2010)
Maize Sorghum
Bu'aale 180 12 192 8% 10% 13%
Jilib 175 0 175 5% 4% 6%
Saakow 200 0 200 3% 6% 5%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2011 Total
555 12 567 5% 6% 7%
Agriculture Gu 2011 Off season Maize in Juba regions
Districts Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010
Middle Juba 400 6%
L. Juba 50 3%
Total 450 5%
AgricultureGu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M
Juba)
Regions
Gu 2011, Cash Crop Production in MT
Rice Cowpea Sesame OnionsOff-Season
CowpeaOff-Season
SesamePepper Total
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
0 140 0 0 70 200 0 400
Juba Hoose (Lower)
0 20 5 0 250 1,800 0 2,080
TOTAL 0 160 5 0 320 2,000 0 2,480
M.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production
Agriculture
L.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production
Agriculture
M. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011
Agriculture
AgricultureL. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011
Maize Crop Failure. Janbarow , Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011
Poor Maize Crop. Buale, M.Juba, FSNAU, July 2011
AgricultureGu 2011 Assessment Photos
AgricultureGu 2011 Assessment Photos
.
Failed crop Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, July 2011
Crop failure. Yontoy, Kismaayo, L. Juba, July 2011
Empty underground storage Pit.Qed cajuso –Sakow July 2011
Juba regions receive maize from Kenya via Dhobley and Kismayo port as well as from
Ethiopia (Somali Region) through Gedo region.
AgricultureGu 2011 Local Cereal Flow
AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions
Regional Trend in Cereal Prices
(maize), main markets in Middle Juba
Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main
markets in Lower Juba
Factors influencing sorghum prices:
• Crop failure in riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods
• Maize inflow from Kenya and Ethiopia
• High demand for cereals
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability
Factors influencing labor wage rates in agricultural districts:
•Limited agricultural activities following the poor Gu season performance
•Low labour demand
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
Regional trends in purchasing
power in Middle Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize):
3kg in Jul ‘11 vs 15kg in Jul ‘10
Factor Affecting ToT decline:
• Significant increase in maize prices.
•Decrease of daily wage rate
Regional trends in purchasing
power in Lower Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize):
4kg in Jul ‘11 vs 17kg in Jul ‘10
LivestockRangeland Conditions and
Livestock Migration, July 2011
• Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions except riverine livelihood
• Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of coastal, pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods except river banks
• Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep.
• High in-migrations that caused depletion of pasture
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region Livelihoods Conception (Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11)
Milk production (Gu ‘11)
Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)
Livestock species
Juba Southeast Pastoral Cattle: none to lowSh/goat: medium
Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: low
very low
Cattle: none Sh/goat: medium
Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: decreased (Below Baseline)
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: lowSh/goat: medium
Camel: mediumSh/goat: low
average for camel
Camel: lowSh/goat: medium
Camel: Increasing trend ( as Baseline)
Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline)
Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: none to lowSh/goat: medium
Cattle: low Sh/goat: low
very low
Cattle: none Sh/goat: medium
Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline)
LivestockGu 2011 Assessment Photos
Poor cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Lower Juba, July 2011
Poor cattle body condition. Litila Sakow, Middle Juba, July 2011.
LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions
Regional Trend in cattle Prices
in Middle Juba (Jilib , Buale) : • Cattle prices are 40% of June 2010
and 161% of January 2011.
Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in
Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo): • Declining trend: 49% compared to
same month last year, and 103% of January 2011
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
Influencing factors: poor body condition, poor demand, high supply, poor condition on marketing route, prolonged drought )
Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions
Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize:
107kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 715kg/head in Jul ‘10
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize:
105kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 358kg/head in Jul ‘10
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Factors Influencing Commercial price Increases for imported commodities (last six months):
• Increased taxation on commercial imports
• High food and fuel prices on international markets
• Low local cereal supply leading to increased consumption of imported cereals, causing elevation in prices
Markets
Region Nutrition Surveys (March – July 10)
Rapid MUAC Screening
(% <12.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key
driving factors
Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ’09/10
Juba
Juba PastoralGAM =39.0 (35.2-42.9) SAM = 18.9 (16.0-22.3% (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)
Juba RiverineGAM = 45.3 (41.0-49.7)and SAM = 21.7 (18.7-25.0) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)
Juba Agro-pastoralGAM = 34.4 (30.3-38.6) and SAM = 12.3 (9.5-15.8) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)
MUAC <12.5=19
MUAC <11.5=5
High and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood s but decreasing in the riverine livelihoods’ facilities ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS Data , Jan-June’11 R=3)
OTP admission show mixed trends, with high and fluctuating number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP in pastoral and agro-pastoral, but low and fluctuating trends in the riverine facilities ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS Data , Jan-June’11 R=3)
Aggravating factors-High morbidity with pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine samples reportedly ill.-Limited access to health and feeding facility due to distance and insecurity-Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water -Suboptimal child care/feeding
Mitigating factors- No mitigating factors has been noted
Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration
JubaRiverine: Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration
Juba Agro-pastoral Very Critical – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011
JUBA Nutrition Situation Estimates
Aggravating factors Limited food access due to impact of drought on crop production and cattle and sheep Poor humanitarian access limiting delivery of health and nutrition services High morbidity and poor health seeking behaviors Limited access to safe water, sanitation & health facilities Poor infant and young child feeding
Mitigating factors Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral community (mainly camel) Increased income from sale of fodder in riverine charcoal burning for income generation with long-term negative
impact on the environment Limited nutrition interventions on going
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)
JUBASummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes
Urban Population: Middle Juba: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLCLower Juba: 75%P in HE; 25%P and 50%M in AFLC
Rural Population:L& M Juba Southern Agropastoral (25% P-Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M -HE; 50% M –
AFLC); L. Juba Agropastoral (25% P- Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M – AFLC); Juba Riverine (50% P -Famine and 50%P-HE; 100%M –HE); Juba South East Pastoral (100% P-HE; 100% M- AFLC ); Juba Southern Inland Pastoral (75% P- AFLC)
Acute malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorateFood Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below
2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day while lacking entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping
Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day -human usage only); AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)
Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing)
Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation
JubaMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors: Late start of Gu 2011 rains with very poor, localized coverage and intensity; Significant decrease in cereal production in riverine (maize) and complete failure in agropastoral
(sorghum): L. Juba (321MT; 6% of PWA); M. Juba (567MT; 6% of PWA); Absence of stocks following two consecutive seasons of crop failure Poor pasture across the region except in the river banks that are infested with tsetse flies; Shortage of water in the key pastoral areas due to poor rains and early depletion following the high
livestock in-migration mainly from Kenya and Gedo region; Decreased herd sizes and livestock holding (cattle, sheep/goat); Poor livestock body conditions and decline in livestock production and reproduction (cattle, sheep &
goats); Significant increase in maize prices from a year ago (93% ); Unstable security situation- mainly along the border with Kenya – Dobley ,Kulbiyow and Diif of
Afmadow district – affecting trade movement Low livestock prices (mainly for cattle) due to poor body conditions and poor access to Garissa market
(shortage of pasture and water along the trekking routes and civil insecurity) Increased taxation on commercial imports by local administration, contributing to food price increases; Weak purchasing power: ToT of 4kg maize/labour wage (66% decline) and 25kg maize/local goat (72%
decline) compared to June 2010; Increased distress coping strategies (charcoal production, indebtedness);
Mitigating Factors: Sustained baseline levels of camel holdings and availability of milking animals in pastoral areas; Hagaa off-season cash and cereal crop productions: L/M Juba (cowpea, sesame and maize); Charcoal production despite low prices; Limited food assistance, mainly from ICRC Social support
JubaRural Population in Crisis by District
Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Famine
Middle Juba Bu'aale 45,901 8,000 9,000 7,000 26,000 5,000
Jilib 83,464 12,000 13,000 11,000 37,000 7,000
Saakow/Salagle 54,773 10,000 8,000 9,000 26,000 5,000
SUB-TOTAL 184,138 30,000 30,000 27,000 89,000 17,000
Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 7,000 3,000 14,000 14,000 2,000
Badhaadhe 32,828 7,000 2,000 12,000 11,000 1,000
Jamaame 106,734 12,000 17,000 7,000 45,000 10,000
Kismaayo 77,334 9,000 6,000 20,000 22,000 4,000
SUB-TOTAL 261,108 35,000 28,000 53,000 92,000 17,000
GRAND TOTAL 445,246 65,000 58,000 80,000 181,000 34,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 123,000 295,000
JubaRural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone
Affected Regions and Livelihood ZoneEstimated Population
of Affected Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HEDeyr 2010/11 GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Famine
Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0 0
Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 3,000 6,000 0 12,000 3,000
Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 2,000 1,000 2,000 4,000 1,000
South-East Pastoral 18,232 4,000 1,000 10,000 5,000 0
Southern Agro-Past 46,816 12,000 4,000 13,000 26,000 4,000
Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 0 2,000 0 0
Southern Juba Riv 59,304 9,000 18,000 0 42,000 9,000
SUB-TOTAL 184,138 30,000 30,000 27,000 89,000 17,000
Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0 0
Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 14,000 7,000 19,000 34,000 7,000
South-East Pastoral 38,810 9,000 3,000 21,000 12,000 0
Southern Agro-Past 11,637 3,000 1,000 3,000 6,000 1,000
Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 0 10,000 0 0
Southern Juba Riv 57,005 9,000 17,000 0 40,000 9,000
SUB-TOTAL 261,108 35,000 28,000 53,000 92,000 17,000
GRAND TOTAL 445,246 65,000 58,000 80,000 181,00034,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 123,000 295,000
JubaUrban Population in Crisis
DistrictUNDP 2005
Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of
Urban population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of
Urban population
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Bu'aale 59,489 13,588 0 7,000 52 0 7,000 52
Jilib 113,415 29,951 0 15,000 50 0 15,000 50Saakow/Salagle 65,973 11,200 0 4,000 36 0 4,000 36
Sub-Total 238,877 54,739 0 26,000 47 0 26,000 47Juba Hoose (Lower) Afmadow/Xagar 51,334 7,122 2,000 0 28 1,000 2,000 42
Badhaadhe 38,640 5,812 2,000 0 34 1,000 2,000 52
Jamaame 129,149 22,415 8,000 0 36 2,000 6,000 36Kismaayo 166,667 89,333 16,000 0 18 8,000 23,000 35
Sub-Total 385,790 124,682 28,000 0 22 12,000 33,000 36Grand Total
624,667 179,421 28,000 26,000 30 12,000 59,000 40
The End