Food Security and Climate Change
John Ingram Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford
Why is this attracting such attention?
We know that world population will continue to rise …
Pop
ulat
ion
(bill
ions
)
… but increases in grain production have kept pace with increases in population.
But now we also know that temperatures are rising…
… that climate change will undermine food production in many parts of the world…
Simulated maize yields
2000 2055 (from Jones & Thornton, 2002)
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Agriculture 13%
… and that agriculture contributes significantly to GHG emissions.
But what do we actually understand by “Food Security”?
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)
… is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability • Allocation • Preference
• Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange
Environmental Welfare
• Ecosystem stocks & flows
• Ecosystem services
• Access to natural capital
Social Welfare • Income • Employment • Wealth • Social capital • Political capital • Human capital
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
Food System Concept ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
LAC 53m
Asia & Pac 642m
SSA 265m
NENA 42m
Developed 15m
Food systems are already failing many: 1.02 billion people hungry in 2009
“In New York City the number of people having trouble paying for food has increased 60%, to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five
of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004”. Economist, Jan 14th 2010
Affordability is critical for food security: When supply goes down, prices go up
Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis
So what’s the link with climate change?
Recall: food security is already very challenging for many…
Crops have critical average temperature thresholds during growing season
Lower Optimum Upper
Potato 5-10 15-20 25
Wheat 0 17-23 30-35
Maize 8-13 25-30 32-37
Rice 7-12 25-30 35-38
(Rötter and van de Geijn, 1999)
(°C)
Rice yield is particularly sensitive to Tmin
Field observations over several years, Philippines
Peng et al, 2004, PNAS
We know that warming projections depend on emissions scenarios …
IPCC (2007)
A2: focuses on economic growth
B1: focuses on environmental sustainability
Van Vuuren and Riahi (2008)
Van Vuuren and Riahi
(2008)
and we know that actual emissions are near the “worst case” emission scenario.
Met Office warns of catastrophic global warming in our lifetimes
Monday 28 September 2009
• With high emissions: +4°C in 2070s • Plausible worst case: +4°C by 2060 • The Arctic could warm by 15°C or more • Annual precipitation could decrease by 20% or more in
many areas
We also now realise that feedbacks in the carbon cycle are expected to accelerate
global warming
Temperatures will rise further, faster … but with pronounced regional variation
© Crown copyright Met Office!Pattern of warming by 2090s, A1B Mean of “high-end” MOHC
simulations (9 simulations, mean global warming 4.6°C)
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0 0.5
1
-0.5
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Nor
ther
n H
emis
pher
e Te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
“Safe” limit
Worst case 2060
(Met Office, 2009)
Glo
bal
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
) by
2100
(IP
CC
, 200
7)
“Little Ice Age” begins 1
0
The Hunters in the Snow: Brueghel, 1565.
“Weather” is also likely to get more extreme
Maybe more cold days
but a lot more hot ones…
So what’s all this mean for food security?
… and how do we know? 1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect
crop growth, yield and quality
1. Experiments, e.g. Temperature Gradient Tunnels (TGT)
So what’s all this mean for food security?
… and how do we know? 1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect
crop growth, yield and quality
3. Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect:
i. crop growth and yield ii. regional production iii. global food supply
2.i Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect crop growth and yield
Simulated maize yields (from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2002)
2000 2055
2.ii Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect regional production
% change in average crop yields Crops modelled are wheat, maize and rice. Effects of CO2 are taken into account.
Parry et al. (2005)
3.iii Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions will affect global food supply
2020s
2080s
2050s
So what’s all this mean for food security?
… and how do we know? 1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect
crop growth, yield and quality
3. Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect:
i. crop growth and yield ii. regional production iii. global food supply
5. Scenarios to consider climate change in the context of socio-economic and political decisions.
3. Scenarios (plausible stories) to consider climate change in the context of socio-economic and political decisions.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , 2006
Order from Strength
Adapting Mosaic
Global Orchestration
TechnoGarden
Globalization Regionalization
World Development En
viro
nmen
tal M
anag
emen
t
Pro
activ
e
R
eact
ive
So we know climate will affect our food security ….
And so what do we need to do about it?
?
We need silver buckshot!
1. Multiple ways to adapt to anticipated climate change
2. Multiple ways to mitigate further climate change
Adaptation means
“doing things differently”
Producing food
Processing & packaging food
Distributing & retailing food
Consuming food
=> adapt our Food System
“Activities”
Adapting food producing activities: agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture,
fisheries, …
• Stress-tolerant varieties
• Wider range of food stuffs
• Novel food producing systems
• Insurance for producers
• …
• Opened 2008 • > 4,000,000 samples • -18 oC • “Climate change proof”
Preserving crop varieties for the future
Improving food storage
Reduce losses to pests and damp
Reducing food loss
• May occur anywhere along the supply chain, from farm to final consumer
• Difficult to measure • Globally, 15-50% of
food is lost post-harvest
• Often unnoticed until too late
Farmers
Processors
Final Consumers
Transporters
Retailers
Input Suppliers
…Meanwhile in Cumbria, families say they are running out of food as many are unable to reach shops after six bridges collapsed.
London Evening Standard 23 November 2009
Re-designing food distribution systems
So we know climate will affect our food security ….
And so what do we need to do about it?
?
We need silver buckshot!
1. Multiple ways to adapt to anticipated climate change
2. Multiple ways to mitigate further climate change
Global GHG emission sources
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?@A$B$7A@$
Improving N-use efficiency?
N input – N output in crop
kg N/ha/yr Western Kenya (maize)
-52
USA (maize-soybean)
+10
North China (maize-wheat)
+227
(Vitousek et al, 2009)
China grain production and fertilizer consumption (1980 = 100)
Grain Fertilizer
Considerable food production achievement BUT inefficient use (quantity, timing)
What other Food System ‘Activities’ offer mitigation possibilities?
Producing food
Processing & packaging food
Distributing & retailing food
Consuming food
from Edwards et al., Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009
Reducing food packaging?
Reducing food miles?
Guardian 1 February 2009
Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions (Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)
Modernising supermarket chilling equipment?
The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09
But the industry is “tidying up” Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport
and refrigerants
Accepting less choice?
Tesco Oxford has 25,000 different food lines
What about us as individuals?
Considering novel foods?
Modifying our diets?
=> One of the biggest, most immediate impacts!
Consume less red meat and diary: Eat poultry in place of red meat and consume plant-based food rather than dairy two days per week
105
Waste less food: Reduce consumer food waste by 25%
65
Behavioural Change and Personal Action Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if
adopted by 100% of the US population
Transportation 22%
Recycling and Responsible Consumption 16%
Diet and Food Waste 17%
Household Energy 45%
Pie chart total = 1000 MtCO2e (14% of total US emissions)
• Every household in the UK wastes between £250 and £400 of food per year
• Avoidable waste of cereal-based food in the UK and USA could lift 224 million people out of hunger
• Producing and distributing edible food that goes to waste accounts for around 5% of all UK GHG emissions
Food Ethics Council, 2009
Reducing food waste
Conclusion
We know what we want:
a clever balancing act
between food security
and environment
And we also know what we don’t want!
Food Security and Climate Change
?Mitigation
Adaptation