Food Security and Climate Change

John Ingram Environmental Change Institute

University of Oxford

Why is this attracting such attention?

We know that world population will continue to rise …

Pop

ulat

ion

(bill

ions

)

… but increases in grain production have kept pace with increases in population.

But now we also know that temperatures are rising…

… that climate change will undermine food production in many parts of the world…

Simulated maize yields

2000 2055 (from Jones & Thornton, 2002)

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Agriculture 13%

… and that agriculture contributes significantly to GHG emissions.

But what do we actually understand by “Food Security”?

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)

… is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability • Allocation • Preference

• Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange

Environmental Welfare

•  Ecosystem stocks & flows

•  Ecosystem services

•  Access to natural capital

Social Welfare •  Income •  Employment •  Wealth •  Social capital •  Political capital •  Human capital

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Food System ACTIVITIES

Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …

Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …

Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …

Food System Concept ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(World Food Summit 1996)

LAC 53m

Asia & Pac 642m

SSA 265m

NENA 42m

Developed 15m

Food systems are already failing many: 1.02 billion people hungry in 2009

“In New York City the number of people having trouble paying for food has increased 60%, to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five

of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004”. Economist, Jan 14th 2010

Affordability is critical for food security: When supply goes down, prices go up

Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis

So what’s the link with climate change?

Recall: food security is already very challenging for many…

Crops have critical average temperature thresholds during growing season

Lower Optimum Upper

Potato 5-10 15-20 25

Wheat 0 17-23 30-35

Maize 8-13 25-30 32-37

Rice 7-12 25-30 35-38

(Rötter and van de Geijn, 1999)

(°C)

Rice yield is particularly sensitive to Tmin

Field observations over several years, Philippines

Peng et al, 2004, PNAS

We know that warming projections depend on emissions scenarios …

IPCC (2007)

A2: focuses on economic growth

B1: focuses on environmental sustainability

Van Vuuren and Riahi (2008)

Van Vuuren and Riahi

(2008)

and we know that actual emissions are near the “worst case” emission scenario.

Met Office warns of catastrophic global warming in our lifetimes

Monday 28 September 2009

•  With high emissions: +4°C in 2070s •  Plausible worst case: +4°C by 2060 •  The Arctic could warm by 15°C or more •  Annual precipitation could decrease by 20% or more in

many areas

We also now realise that feedbacks in the carbon cycle are expected to accelerate

global warming

Temperatures will rise further, faster … but with pronounced regional variation

© Crown copyright Met Office!Pattern of warming by 2090s, A1B Mean of “high-end” MOHC

simulations (9 simulations, mean global warming 4.6°C)

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0 0.5

1

-0.5

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Nor

ther

n H

emis

pher

e Te

mpe

ratu

re (°

C)

“Safe” limit

Worst case 2060

(Met Office, 2009)

Glo

bal

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

) by

2100

(IP

CC

, 200

7)

“Little Ice Age” begins 1

0

The Hunters in the Snow: Brueghel, 1565.

“Weather” is also likely to get more extreme

Maybe more cold days

but a lot more hot ones…

So what’s all this mean for food security?

… and how do we know? 1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect

crop growth, yield and quality

1. Experiments, e.g. Temperature Gradient Tunnels (TGT)

So what’s all this mean for food security?

… and how do we know? 1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect

crop growth, yield and quality

3. Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect:

i.  crop growth and yield ii.  regional production iii. global food supply

2.i Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect crop growth and yield

Simulated maize yields (from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2002)

2000 2055

2.ii Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect regional production

% change in average crop yields Crops modelled are wheat, maize and rice. Effects of CO2 are taken into account.

Parry et al. (2005)

3.iii Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions will affect global food supply

2020s

2080s

2050s

So what’s all this mean for food security?

… and how do we know? 1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect

crop growth, yield and quality

3. Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions affect:

i.  crop growth and yield ii.  regional production iii. global food supply

5. Scenarios to consider climate change in the context of socio-economic and political decisions.

3. Scenarios (plausible stories) to consider climate change in the context of socio-economic and political decisions.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , 2006

Order from Strength

Adapting Mosaic

Global Orchestration

TechnoGarden

Globalization Regionalization

World Development En

viro

nmen

tal M

anag

emen

t

Pro

activ

e

R

eact

ive

So we know climate will affect our food security ….

And so what do we need to do about it?

?

We need silver buckshot!

1.  Multiple ways to adapt to anticipated climate change

2.  Multiple ways to mitigate further climate change

Adaptation means

“doing things differently”

Producing food

Processing & packaging food

Distributing & retailing food

Consuming food

=> adapt our Food System

“Activities”

Adapting food producing activities: agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture,

fisheries, …

• Stress-tolerant varieties

• Wider range of food stuffs

• Novel food producing systems

• Insurance for producers

• …

• Opened 2008 • > 4,000,000 samples • -18 oC • “Climate change proof”

Preserving crop varieties for the future

Improving food storage

Reduce losses to pests and damp

Reducing food loss

•  May occur anywhere along the supply chain, from farm to final consumer

•  Difficult to measure •  Globally, 15-50% of

food is lost post-harvest

•  Often unnoticed until too late

Farmers

Processors

Final Consumers

Transporters

Retailers

Input Suppliers

…Meanwhile in Cumbria, families say they are running out of food as many are unable to reach shops after six bridges collapsed.

London Evening Standard 23 November 2009

Re-designing food distribution systems

So we know climate will affect our food security ….

And so what do we need to do about it?

?

We need silver buckshot!

1.  Multiple ways to adapt to anticipated climate change

2.  Multiple ways to mitigate further climate change

Global GHG emission sources

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?@A$B$7A@$

Improving N-use efficiency?

N input – N output in crop

kg N/ha/yr Western Kenya (maize)

-52

USA (maize-soybean)

+10

North China (maize-wheat)

+227

(Vitousek et al, 2009)

China grain production and fertilizer consumption (1980 = 100)

Grain Fertilizer

Considerable food production achievement BUT inefficient use (quantity, timing)

What other Food System ‘Activities’ offer mitigation possibilities?

Producing food

Processing & packaging food

Distributing & retailing food

Consuming food

from Edwards et al., Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009

Reducing food packaging?

Reducing food miles?

Guardian 1 February 2009

Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions (Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)

Modernising supermarket chilling equipment?

The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09

But the industry is “tidying up” Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport

and refrigerants

Accepting less choice?

Tesco Oxford has 25,000 different food lines

What about us as individuals?

Considering novel foods?

Modifying our diets?

=> One of the biggest, most immediate impacts!

Consume less red meat and diary: Eat poultry in place of red meat and consume plant-based food rather than dairy two days per week

105

Waste less food: Reduce consumer food waste by 25%

65

Behavioural Change and Personal Action Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if

adopted by 100% of the US population

Transportation 22%

Recycling and Responsible Consumption 16%

Diet and Food Waste 17%

Household Energy 45%

Pie chart total = 1000 MtCO2e (14% of total US emissions)

•  Every household in the UK wastes between £250 and £400 of food per year

•  Avoidable waste of cereal-based food in the UK and USA could lift 224 million people out of hunger

•  Producing and distributing edible food that goes to waste accounts for around 5% of all UK GHG emissions

Food Ethics Council, 2009

Reducing food waste

Conclusion

We know what we want:

a clever balancing act

between food security

and environment

And we also know what we don’t want!

Food Security and Climate Change

?Mitigation

Adaptation