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Mr. A.C. CharaniaSenior FuturistSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)[email protected]
Dr. Hiroshi KanamoriSpace & Robot System GroupInstitute of TechnologyShimizu [email protected]
EXTENSIONS OF NASA'S EXPLORATION ARCHITECTURE:Performance Capabilities and Market Economics of a Lunar Propellant Production Facility
25th ISTS (International Symposium on Space Technology and Science) | Kanazawa, Japan | 04-11 June 2006ISTS 2006-k-13Revision A | 08 June 2006
Contents
IntroductionBackgroundProcessResultsConclusions
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Introduction
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About SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)
Overview:- Engineering services firm based in Atlanta (small business concern)- Founded in 2000 as a spin-off from the Georgia Institute of Technology- Averaged 130% growth in revenue each year since 2001 - 85% of SEI staff members hold degrees in engineering or science
Core Competencies:- Advanced Concept Synthesis for launch and in-space transportation systems- Financial engineering analysis for next-generation aerospace applications and markets- Technology impact analysis and quantitative technology portfolio optimization
Including:- 2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation single-stage and two-stage Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) designs (rocket, airbreather, combined-cycle)- Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) infrastructures including Space Solar Power (SSP)- Launch assist systems- In-space transfer vehicles and upper stages and orbital maneuvering vehicles- Lunar and Mars transfer vehicles and landers for human exploration missions- In-space transportation nodes and propellant depots- Interstellar missions- In-space and surface human habitats
Concepts and Architectures
Image sources: SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) / Georgia Institute of Technology
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Recent Exploration Experience
Including:- NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Concept Exploration and Refinement (CE&R) Study Subcontractor- NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Economic Development of Space (EDS) Project- NASA MSFC exploration architecture trade studies (launch vehicles, in-space stages, lunar landers)- NASA MSFC Prometheus follow-on study: Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) mission to Pluto/Kuiper Belt- NASA LaRC Lunar Lander Preparatory Study Phase 1 Concept Design for NASA JSC - Rocketdyne propulsion technology assessment on lunar exploration architectures- Mission Scenario Analysis Tool (MSAT) architecture optimization tool development- Moonraker in-space stage and habitat sizing tool development- In-space trajectory tool development- Lunar exploration economic and life cycle cost analysis
Image sources: NASA
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Sample Economic Analyses Performed by SEI
Human Exploration Cost Estimates Scenarios of Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Price Sensitivity
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per Y
ear]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per Y
ear]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
25
30
35
40
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per Y
ear]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
25
30
35
40
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per Y
ear]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
Oper
atio
ns C
ost R
educ
tion
DDT&E AND TFU COST REDUCTION25% 75%
25%
75%
Components of LCC (FY06)
Other (Robotic/ISS/Shuttle)
CEV/CM
CLV
LSAM
CaLV-HLLV
EDS + CEV/SM
Technology Maturation Surface Systems
Facilities, Operations, and Flight Tests
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
$M
$111.3 B (2006-2018) $53.4 B (2019-2025)$164.7 B
NASA FY06 Exploration-Related Budget
See: http://www.sei.aero/library/technical.html for more information and technical papers on above analyses
Space Tourism Economic Modeling International Space Station (ISS) Support Market
-100M
-50M
0M
50M
100M
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Disc
ount
ed C
umul
ative
Ca
sh F
low
(US
$)
Project Year
Effect of Competition
Higher-End Operator
In Competition with Higher-End
Lower-End Operator
Effect of Market Entry Date
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Project Year
-40M-20M
0M20M40M60M80M
-60M-80M 2 Year Market Delay
4 Year Market Delay
Higher-End Operator
Lower-End Operator
5 Commercial Competitors + min. 2 CEV/Yr + Russian Competition
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About Shimizu Corporation
Overview:- Head Office: Tokyo, Japan- History: Founded in 1804, Incorporated in 1937- Business: Engineering & Construction- Major Areas: Buildings (Habitat, Office, Hospital, School, Industrial Facilities), Bridges, Dams, Tunnels, Development- Employees: 11,680 (Apr. 2004)- Net Sales: 1,295,300,000,000 (2003) (US$ 11,000,000,000.-)- Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan (East Side)- Researchers: 200
Space Focus:- Future scope on construction engineering & technology- Apply Shimizu technology into space programs- Get spin-off technology from following space programs - Develop commercial space programs
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Shimizu Corporation and Projects in Space
Establishment1987
- “Space Project Office” for Future Business Challenge - “CSP-Japan” for Space Business Consulting Company - jointed with CSP Associates (Boston)
Concept Development1988
- Lunar Base Concept Development
1989- Space Hotel Concept, Space Robotics – Carnegie Mellon Univ.
Research & Development on Engineering/Technology1990
- Lunar Base - Collab. w/ McDonell Douglas Space Systems Co.- Living in Space - Collab. w/ Martin Marietta
1991- Lunar Oxygen Production Collab. w/ Carbotek (Houston) - Inflatable Structure - Collab. w/ Binistar (Napa)
Involved in Governmental Space Programs1994
- Orbital Robotics Experimental Project (NASDA & NAL)
1995- Production of Lunar Soil Simulant- Study on Lunar Concrete
Current Research on Domestic Space Programs1996~
- Space Tourism- Lunar Water Production- Lunar Soil & Excavation- Lunar Rover- Solar Power Satellites
Construction Systems
Lunar Resource Utilization
Human Habitation
Large-Scale Structures
Robotics
Space Port
Commercial Space
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Background
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United States of America (USA) National Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)
Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond
Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations;
Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and
Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.
THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE
EXPLORATION PROGRAM
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Components of Lunar Return: NASA’s Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)Image sources: NASA, ESAS Report: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/exploration/news/ESAS_report.html
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EARTH
MOON
Earth Orbit
LunarOrbit
Earth To Orbit (ETO) Launch No. 1:Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV)Shuttle-Derived Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV)Earth Departure Stage (EDS) + Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM)
Earth To Orbit (ETO) Launch No. 2:Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV)Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) with new Upper StageCrew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Command Module (CM) +Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Service Module (SM) + Launch Escape System (LES)
LEO Rendezvous
Earth Arrival
Transfer to Moon (TLI + LOI) Return to Earth (TEI)EDS
(Performs TLI)Two-Stage LSAM
(Performs LOI + Descent + Ascent)CEV/SM
(Performs TEI) CEV/CM
Note: Notional representation of lunar exploration architecture. Architecture elements may not be in scale.
Lunar Descent Lunar Ascent
5 x RS-25f [LOX/LH2]2 x 5 segment SRB
2 x J-2S+ [LOX/LH2] 4 x RL-10+ [LOX/LH2] - Descent1 x New [LOX/CH4] - Ascent
1 x 4 segment SRB
1 x RS-25e [ LOX/LH2] 1 x LES SRM
1 x New [LOX/CH4] – Same as LSAM
Notional Representation of NASA ESAS Lunar Exploration Architecture (circa late 2005)
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ESAS Baseline Lunar Lander Total Mass: 45.9 MT Apollo LM Total Mass: 16.5 MT
Apollo Lunar Lander vs. ESAS Lunar Lander
“The ESAS team recommends the deployment of a lunar outpost using the “incremental build” approach. Along with the crew, the lander can deliver 500 kg of payload to the surface, and up to 2,200 kg of additional payload if the maximum landed capacity is utilized. This capability opens the possibility of deploying an outpost incrementally by accumulating components delivered by sortie missions to a common location. This approach is more demanding than one that delivers larger cargo elements. In particular, the habitat, power system, pressurized rovers, and some resource utilization equipment will be challenging to divide and deploy
in component pieces. The alternative to this incremental approach is to develop a dedicated cargo lander that can deliver large payloads of up to 21 mT.”Source: NASA's Exploration Systems Architecture Study -- Final Report, August 2005, URL: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/exploration/news/ESAS_report.html, p.25.
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Process
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Task Overview
Multiple governments, specifically the United States of America, are interested in human exploration of cis-lunar space.
These space exploration architectures could potentially utilize new commercial products (e.g. space hotels, propellant depots, orbital tourism)
What would an actual scenario for lunar commerce look like, what products could be produced and what price points would exist that make companies financially viable?
An economic analysis is performed of a commercially operated lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) facility providing propellant to a government customer
- Development of ISRU system (Shimizu Corp.), economic analysis (SEI) using Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM)
- Monte Carlo simulation on several key engineering and business parameters- The commercial company is assumed to be responsible for the development and
construction of the ISRU plant but is not responsible for development of the transportation architecture to send the plant to the lunar surface
- The commercial company is assumed to pay the transportation cost to the lunar surface to the government
- Initial development starts in 2014, with Initial Operating Capability (IOC) in 2022, for this analysis only one propellant plant is assumed to be operational
- The commercial company has revenue-generating operations for 10 years
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Notional Elements of Lunar Propellant Plant and Depot-Lunar Surface (PPD-LS)
Excavator
Water / SoilSeparator
Transporter Water / IceStorages
Electrolyzer / Dryer Radiators
Liquefiers / Radiators
LOx / LH2Storage
Tanker Loader
Solar Panels
Storage Habitats
* Scale is not strict
Nuclear PowerPlant
+ Construction Machines (Wheel Loader, Wheel Crane)
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Lunar PPD Size for 21 MT Lunar Lander
20.94Lunar PPD Systems Total
----------Lunar Habitat Module
0.07D8.6x0.45Solar Panels
2.15D1.6x4.3Storage LH2
1.23D1.6x2.1Storage LOX
0.585x3x0.3Radiators LH2
0.215x3x0.1Radiators LOX
0.420.5x1x1Liquefiers LH2
0.130.6x0.7x1Liquefiers LOX
0.043x3.1x0.05Dryer Radiators
1.081x1x1Electrolyzer
5.91PPD-LS
5.40D8.6x2Nuclear Power Station
4.802.5x1.6x2Wheel Crane
----------Wheel Loader
----------WTM Loader
1.43D2.0x1.7Water Storage
1.606x0.15x0.15Transporter
0.80D0.6x3Seperator
1.002x0.1x0.1Excavator
15.03Soil and Water Management
Mass [MT]Size(stowed) [m]Components
The ISRU facility is envisioned to be delivered by the government’s transportation architectureThis facility is sized to fit on the lunar lander and arrive with no habitatThe facility is constrained to be less than 21 MT (the capability of a notional lunar lander similar to that described by NASA's recent Exploration Systems Architecture Study)Accessible lunar polar water ice 1 wt.% water concentration in lunar regolithTechnologies available
- Bucket wheel excavator- Water separation by heating Method- Nuclear power plant for heat source- Assembly of lunar facilities by semi-
autonomous systemThe propellant production rate is on average 20.0 kg/hourIf such a plant were operating continuously over a lunar 10 day period (approximating daylight operation) then that would equate to 4.8 MT/month or 57.6 MT/year of propellant (LH2 and LOX)
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Monte Carlo Simulation: Triangular Distributions for Various Uncertainty Parameters
+5%-20%57.6ISRU Propellant Production Capability [MT/year]*+50%-10%$30 MMission Operations Cost [$M/year, FY2005]
+25%-10%
$1,397 M$540 M$208 M$649 M
Transportation Cost to Lunar Surface [$M, FY2005]Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV)**Earth Departure Stage (EDS)***
Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM)***
+75%-25%
$310 M$65 M$193 M$53 M
Acquisition Cost [$M, FY2005]Nuclear Power Plant*
Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility Cost*Mass of Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility*
+75%-25%
$930 M$195 M$578 M$158 M
DDT&E Cost [$M, FY2005]Nuclear Power Plant*
Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility Cost*Mass of Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility*
MaximumMinimumDeterministic/Most LikelyParameter
Notes:United States Dollars FY2005 unless otherwise noted, any errors due to rounding* - Source: Shimizu Corporation (75% development cost, 25% acquisition cost)** - Source: Charania, A., "The Trillion Dollar Question: Anatomy of the Vision for Space Exploration Cost," AIAA-2005-6637, Space 2005, Long Beach, California, August 30 - September 1, 2005.*** - Source: Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) Draft Report, Section 12.
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Results
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Cash Flow for Deterministic Baseline Case (WACC = 21.7%, Price = $17,286/kg)
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Year
US
$M
Total Cost (w/o Financing)Total Cost (w/ Financing)Discounted Value (Before Interest), WACCNet Income After Taxes
WACC: A company’s assets are financed by either debt or equity. WACC is the average of the costs of these sources of financing, each of which is weighted by its respective use in the given situation. A firm's WACC is the overall required return on the firm as a whole and, as such, it is often used internally by company directors to determine the economic feasibility of expansionary opportunities and mergers. Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp
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Propellant Price Frequency Distribution (WACC = 21.7%, 1,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
14,1
79
14,7
75
15,3
71
15,9
68
16,5
64
17,1
60
17,7
56
18,3
53
18,9
49
19,5
45
20,1
42
20,7
38
21,3
34
21,9
30
22,5
27
23,1
23
23,7
19
24,3
15
24,9
12
25,5
08
26,1
04
26,7
01
27,2
97
27,8
93
28,4
89
Lunar Surface Propellant Production Price [$/kg, FY2005]
Occ
uran
ces
Mean = $19,912/kgstd dev. = 2998
90% Certainty <= $24,415/kg
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Delivered Propellant Price for Required Return (1,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Luna
r Sur
face
Pro
pella
nt P
rodu
ctio
n Pr
ice
[$/k
g, F
Y20
05]
Probabilistic Price: Mean Probabilistic Price: 90% Confidence (<=) Deterministic Price
Baseline WACC = 21.7%Price = $17,286/kg
WACCProbabilistic Price: Mean
Probabilistic Price: 90%
Confidence (<=)Deterministic
Price5.0% $5,473/kg $6,411/kg $4,762/kg
10.0% $8,294/kg $9,883/kg $7,226/kg15.0% $12,349/kg $14,885/kg $10,668/kg20.0% $17,832/kg $21,842/kg $15,369/kg21.7% $19,913/kg $24,416/kg $17,286/kg25.0% $25,227/kg $30,367/kg $21,672/kg30.0% $34,846/kg $43,024/kg $29,993/kg35.0% $47,157/kg $58,740/kg $40,831/kg
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Conclusions
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Observations and Concluding Remarks
- This analysis used the baseline ESAS lunar lander payload constraints to design an ISRU propellant production facility and consider its economics
- Such a facility as designed here can produce about 58 MT of propellant per year for 10 years and could achieve a return for a commercial company if prices were above $15,000-20,000/kg for propellant delivered at the lunar surface
- A baseline WACC was of 21.7% was arrived at using a traditional comparison amongst multiple industries, debt-equity assumptions, risk free rates, and market risk premiums
- For the baseline case were WACC was equal to 21.7%, the price for propellant to a customer on the lunar surface was $17,286/kg (single price was used for either hydrogen or oxygen)
- The 90% certainty value is over $4,000/kg more than the mean with a slightly skewed output distribution, since most of the triangular distributions were skewed towards the maximum, the probabilistic (mean and 90% confidence) values are higher for each WACC value than the deterministic price
- For the baseline WACC of 21.7%, the mean value was higher ($19,913/kg) than the deterministic value and 90% of the Monte Carlo output prices were less than $24,416/kg
- Work presented here was part of a larger study performed by Shimizu Corporation and CSP Japan, Inc. for SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) under the project entitled: “Economic Development of Space (EDS): Examination and Simulation.”
- The authors would like to acknowledge technical assistance on the economic modeling portion of this analysis from Mr. Hideki Kanayama, Aerospace Policy and Industry Team Leader, CSP Japan, Inc., Tokyo, Japan. The authors would also like to acknowledge support from Mr. Yoshida Tetsuji, General Manager, Space And Robotics Systems (SARS) Group, Institute of Technology, Shimizu Corporation, Tokyo, Japan.
- Sponsorship and financial support (including support for the international partners on the team) for the EDS project was provided by a contract from NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESR&T) office at NASA Headquarters.
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