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ERTAC EGU Growth ToolStakeholder Rollout
ERTAC Webinar
May 15th, 2013
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Presentation Overview
1. Process Overview and Timelines
2. Inputs
3. Algorithm Details
4. Results
5. Outstanding issues
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1. Process Overview and Timelines
a. What is the ERTAC Growth Committee?
b. Product criteria
c. Committee structure
d. Progress & Timeline
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Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC)
ERTAC convenes ad‐hoc groups to solve specific inventory problems
Collaboration:
– States ‐ NE, Mid‐Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan
– Multi‐jurisdictional organizations
– Industry
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ERTAC EGU Growth
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ERTAC EGU convened 3 years ago
Goal: Build a low cost, stable/stiff, fast, and transparent model to project future EGU emissions
Utility representatives also joined and provided guidance on model design and inputs
• AEP – Dave Long
• AMEREN ‐ Ken Anderson
• RRI – John Shimshock
• NY Energy – Roger Caiz
Helped refine the logic, such as reserve capacity
ERTAC EGU Subcommittees & Co‐Chairs
Committee Co‐chairsLaura Mae Crowder, WV DEP Bob Lopez, WI DE Danny Wong, NJ DEP
Subcommittees and LeadsImplementation/Doris McLeod VA, Mark Janssen, LADCO
Create logic for software
Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WVRegional specific growth rates for peak and off peak
Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CTImprove default data to reflect state specific information
Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny Wong, NJCharacterize programs not already included in growth factors
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State Involvement
• Regional lead identified to coordinate state review of model and inputs
• State Lead identified to QA the input files
• These representatives also review the output to provide guidance
• If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met with known controls, states will indicate what strategy are applied to meet the goal
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How does it work?
Starting point: 2007 CEM data by regionUnits ordered from maximum to minimum hours operated
States provide info: new units, controls & other changes
Regional growth ratesBase – Department of Energy (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)Peak – North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)
Future hourly estimates based on base year activityTemporal profile matches meteorology
Unit demand beyond capacity moved to other units using 2007 ordering
Growth beyond regional capacity results in “Demand Deficit Units”
Test hourly reserve capacity
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Benefits of ERTAC EGU Model
Conservative predictionsNo big swings in generation
No unexpected unit shutdowns
Inputs are completely transparent
Software is not proprietary
Output files are hourly and reflect base year meteorology Hourly emissions reflect HEDD concerns
Quickly evaluates various scenariosRegional and fuel modularity
Can test retirements, growth, and controls
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Progress So Far ....
Model Development:
Methodology created, documentation crafted
Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC)
Developing post‐processing software
Estimating Growth in Generation:
Growth rates and regions defined
Created growth rate inputs using AEO/NERC 2013
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Progress So Far ....Input File Development:
Unit file and future controls file reviewed by statesCap files developed based on CAIR caps Further state input ongoing
Results:Version 1.65 complete for Continental USUsed AEO/NERC 2013 growth factorsImproved output through post‐processorsDistributed to member states for review and comment twice
Sensitivities:Conducted many scenarios with varied input valuesRan alternative growth rate sensitivities(with high coal rates)
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ERTAC TimelineMay , 2013
•Third Generation of “CONUS” test runs Using AEO2013 Growth Rates
•Goal: Demonstrate a “Proof of Concept”
•Review output, revise and rerun
•Present results to Stakeholders for comment
June 28th , 2013
•Identify Sensitivity runs for next round of modeling
•Close comment window for next round of comments on 2011 base year
July‐October, 2013
•Run 8‐12 sensitivity runs and present to full ERTAC Committee
•Goal: Improve inputs and model output processors
•Enhance ERTAC to SMOKE post‐processors and data.
Anticipated Future tasks
•Support states with Transport modeling
•Improve Documentation
•Enhance Software Functionality(needs additional funding)
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Data Importation
a. Inputs
b. Preprocessing
c. Growth Rates
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ERTAC Inputs
• Emission Unit Start Point: Base Year CAMD activity data – Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type, location – Units categorized by:
• Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal]• Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WUMS)]
• States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc
• Energy Information Agency (EIA) AEO growth factors
• NERC peak growth factors
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Preprocessing Functions
• Data Edit Checks
– Unit availability file
– Controls file
– Growth rates file
– Base Year hourly CAMD data
• Removes non‐EGUs
• Determines hourly temporal hierarchy
– Based on regional hourly Gross Load (GL)
– Important for load distribution and growth rates
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Preprocessing Functions
• New units are assigned future hourly usage profile
• Assesses partial year reporting units
• Creates unit hierarchies for generation distribution
• Calculates “hourly load values” by region and fuel/unit type considering:– Retired generation
– New unit generation
– Existing generation
• Calculates “non peak” growth rates
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Growth Rates (GR)
• Hour specific growth rates• Program adjusts unit temporal profile based on regional
and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles– Resulting FY profile might different from BY
• Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic Growth Rate and control programs on air quality
• AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth – Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy– Transition growth – 200‐2000 hours in hierarchy– Non‐peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy out to
8760 hours.
• Combined factor is further adjusted to account for:– Retirements & new units
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The evolution of growth rates from annual to hourly
Transition(hours 201‐2000 in
hierarchy)
AEO2010 (by region/fuel)
Nonpeak Growth(hours 2001‐8760
in hierarchy)
NERC (by region/fuel)
Peak Growth(hours 1‐200 in
hierarchy)
Final Hourly Growth
Adjusted for retirements/new units each hour
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Growth Rates (GR)• Peak GR = 1.07
• Annual GR = 0.95
• Transition hours of 200 & 2,000
• Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)
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Adjusted Future Year Growth Rates (AFYGR), Hour Specific
• For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for:– Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY Gen)
– Total Retired Generation (RetGen)
– Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen)
• Growth Rate for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly Base Yr loads!
AFYGR = (Future Yr Generation – New Unit Generation)
(Base Yr Generation – Retired Generation)
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3. Algorithm Details
a. Regional modularity
b. Adjusted Future Year Growth Rates
c. Excess generation pool
d. New Unit Utilization
e. Demand Deficit units
f. Spinning Reserve
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Regional/Fuel Modularity
• Each ERTAC region analyzed independently
• Reserve analyzed on a regional basis
• Algorithm determines if capacity has been met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type
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Use new units
For all ERTAC Regions
For all Fuel/Type Bins
Analyze capacity versus demand
Assign generation
Spinning Reserve
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Regional and Fuel Modularity
Units assigned to a region/fuel
Growth rates by region/fuel
Growth rates account for:Regional generation transfer
Changes in fuel mix
Renewables and some energy efficiency
Allows modular operation.
With unrealistic growth rates:Results will also be unrealistic
Should we manually balance fuels or regions?
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Updated Regional Map
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Excess Generation Pool
• If unit growth exceeds capacity– Unit is limited to capacity– Demand beyond capacity added to the excess generation pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin
• The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation hierarchy order– Units receive power up to optimal threshold or max capacity in two distribution loops
– Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted or all units are at capacity (Demand Deficit unit must be created to meet demand and run restarts)
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New Unit Utilization• New units mainly receive generation from overall future year power demand. Existing units’ growth rates are adjusted accordingly.– Annual power production limited by default or state input
– Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) —program allows user to change the “mimic” unit
• New units (demand deficit and state supplied) are high in utilization order relative to other similar units because they are assumed to be:– Very efficient– Very clean
• Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable
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New Demand Deficit Units
• Added to meet demand
• Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis
(like new state supplied units)
• Receive unmet demand
• Size/location of Demand Deficit units adjustable
• Future temporal profile assigned by region and fuel/unit type
• If a Demand Deficit unit is added, the allocation hierarchy is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour
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First/next hour in the hierarchy
Does capacity meet demand?
Add Demand Deficit unit
Reallocate unit order
Begin at first hour in the hierarchy
Y
N
Spinning Reserve check
• Following assignment of generation
• Check if reserve capacity is available for each hour in each region
• If in any hour there is not reserve capacity equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised
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Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour
Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ?
Y
NAlert: More capacity needed
First/next hour
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Results
a. Output
b. Examples
c. Runtime
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Output/Results
• Future year hourly activity– Heat input (mmbtu)– Gross load (MW)– SO2 emissions (lbs)– NOx emissions (lbs)
• File includes 8,760 hours for each:– Existing unit that is not retired– New state supplied unit– New Demand Deficit unit created by the code
• Summary files• Post‐projection processing: graphs, more summaries, etc
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Output from ERTAC EGU V1.65
• Unit level
• Overall output
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Unit Level Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MWAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012
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7000
6000
5000
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2000
1000
0
Base Future
Mmbtu/hr
Calendar Hours
Variations in growth rate
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Unit Level Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO2 ControlAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012
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Base Future
Base Year lbs/hr
Calendar Hours
FY lbs/hr
Unit Level Example: Combined Cycle New Unit, 300 MWAnnual GR= 0.904, Peak GR=1.2, Nonpeak GR=0.901
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New units are supplied with temporal variability with grounding in base year meteorology
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Unit Level Example: Simple Cycle Existing Unit, 53 MWAnnual GR=1.39, Peak GR=1.549, Nonpeak GR=1.377
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Post‐projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 1 Example
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Post‐projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 2 Example
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Sum of Base year heatinput (mmbtu)
Sum of Future year heatinput (mmbtu)
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In summary
• The model has been built
• Output has been generated
• Continuing effort to evaluate output and update inputs– Demand Deficit units
– Unit hierarchies
– Exporting to Chemical Transport Models
• Scenarios Will be built to evaluate policies and alternate growth scenarios.
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1200
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2100
2400
2700
3000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Million M
egawatt‐Hours
EIA's AEO Projection of Coal‐based Electricity Generation
AEO2008
AEO2009
AEO2010
AEO2011
AEO2012
AEO2013
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Million M
egawatt‐Hours
EIA's AEO Projection of Gas‐based Electricity Generation
AEO2008
AEO2009
AEO2010
AEO2011
AEO2012
AEO2013