MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Enhancing the resilience of Enhancing the resilience of acute care facilities against acute care facilities against
extreme eventsextreme events
Michel BruneauDirector, Multidisciplinary Center for
Earthquake Engineering Research
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
VISION STATEMENTVISION STATEMENT
The overall goal is to enhance the seismic resiliency of communities through improved engineering and management tools for critical infrastructure systems (water supply, electric power, and hospitals) and emergency management functions. Seismic resilience (technical, organizational, social, and economic) is characterized by reduced probability of system failure, reduced consequences due to failure, and reduced time to system restoration.
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Reference: Reference: “A Framework to Quantitatively “A Framework to Quantitatively
Assess and Enhance Assess and Enhance Seismic Resilience”Seismic Resilience”
Earthquake Spectra Journal Earthquake Spectra Journal Michel BRUNEAU (MCEER/University at Buffalo)
Stephanie CHANG (University of British Columbia)Ronald EGUCHI (Imagecat Inc.)
George C. LEE (MCEER)Thomas D. O'ROURKE (Cornell University)
Andrei M. REINHORN (University at Buffalo)Masanobu SHINOZUKA (University of California at Irvine)
Kathleen TIERNEY (University of Colorado) William A. WALLACE (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute)
Detlof VON WINTERFELDT (University of Southern California)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
ResilienceResilience
Framework that quantitatively measuresThe “ends” of robustness and rapidityThe “means” of resourcefulness and redundancy
Dimensions of resilienceTechnical and Organizational (T & O)Societal and Economic (S & E)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Measure of Seismic Resilience Measure of Seismic Resilience Conceptual DefinitionConceptual Definition
100
50
0t0 t1 time
QualityOf
Infrastructure(percent)
100
50
0t0 t1 time
QualityOf
Infrastructure(percent)
Loss of Resilience
Resilience depends on “4Rs”Robustness, Rapidity, Resourcefulness, Redundancy
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Adding Resourcefulness DimensionAdding Resourcefulness Dimension
100
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Infrastructure(percent)
Resources
t0
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t1+
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QualityOf
Infrastructure(percent)
Resources
t0
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t1+
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Adding Redundancy DimensionAdding Redundancy Dimension
100
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Time
QualityOf
Infrastructure(percent)
Resources
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t1+
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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t0
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t1+
Hospital #1
Hospital #2
Hospital #n
Linkages100
50
0
Time
QualityOf
Infrastructure(percent)
Resources
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t1+
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Infrastructure(percent)
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Hospital #2
Hospital #n
Linkages
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
19851985Mexico CityMexico City
9,500 Lives30,000 Injuries$4B Loss
19881988ArmeniaArmenia
25,000 Lives20,000 Injuries$16B Loss
19951995KobeKobe
5,000 Lives26,000 Injuries$120B Loss
19891989Loma PrietaLoma Prieta
62 Lives3,750 Injuries$8B Loss
19941994NorthridgeNorthridge
57 Lives1,500 Injuries$20B Loss
19991999TurkeyTurkey
17,000 Lives46,000 Injuries$7.8B Loss
19991999TaiwanTaiwan
2,300 Lives10,000 Injuries$14B Loss
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Research StrategiesResearch Strategies
Observations:
Seismic rehabilitation of existing, under-designed systems is most urgently needed.
Well Executed Disaster Management Could Significantly Reduce the Losses
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Research StrategiesResearch Strategies
Nationwide upgrading of existing inventory is not fiscally prudent.
However, protecting critical and essential facilities together with efficient response and recovery is a socio-economically viable national strategy for earthquake loss reduction.
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Lifelines: Power Systems
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Lifelines: Pipeline Systems
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
HighwaysHighways
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Earthquake Response and Earthquake Response and RecoveryRecovery
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
SPOT Image of the I-5/14 Interchange Change Detection Map Overlaid onto USGS
after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake Aerial Photo - I-5/14 Interchange
(1/17/94) (Changes represented by brown shaded areas)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Advanced GISAdvanced GIS
Empirical Fragility FunctionsEmpirical Fragility Functions
Experiments/AnalysesExperiments/Analyses
DECISION DECISION SUPPORT SUPPORT SYSTEMSSYSTEMS
forfor
Preparedness, Preparedness, Emergency Emergency
Response, and Response, and RestorationRestoration
To MinimizeTo Minimize••Human SufferingHuman Suffering••Physical DamagePhysical Damage••Restoration TimeRestoration Time••Economic LossEconomic Loss
••Interruption ofInterruption ofSocietal ActivitiesSocietal Activities
0.01 0.1 1PGA(g)Pr
obab
ility
of F
aiilu
re(%
) TransformersCircuit BreakersDisconnect Switches
50.0
90.0
99.0
99.999.99
10.0
1.0
0.1
0.01
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 210 100PGV (cm/sec)
2
3
4
56789
2
3
4
0.01
0.10
Rep
air R
ate
(Num
ber o
f Rep
aris/k
m)
CI
DI
AC
HAZUS
SteelTrunk
SteelDistr.
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 100PGV (cm/sec)
2
3456789
2
3456789
2
34
0.001
0.010
0.100
Rep
air R
ate
(Num
ber o
f Rep
airs
/km
)
CIDIAC
Fit Equation (DI):log(Y) = 1.83 * log(X) - 9.39R-squared = 0.73
Fit Equation (AC):log(Y) = 2.26 * log(X) - 11.02R-squared = 0.71
Fit Equation (CI):log(Y) = 1.21 * log(X) - 6.78R-squared = 0.84
SteelDistr.
Fit Equation (Steel Distr.):log(Y) = 0.88 * log(X) - 5.28R-squared = 0.90
Loss Estimation ModelsLoss Estimation Models
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Seismic Retrofit of Seismic Retrofit of HospitalsHospitals
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
#
#
#
OUTIN
#
CEO
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
System System Diagram Diagram ––(Schematic (Schematic Level of Level of Details) Details)
ResilientCommunity /
System
ResilienceAssessment
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEstimation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Estimation
Sensing &Monitoring
EarthquakeInformation
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEvaluation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Evaluation
Monitoring &Sensing
Facility Systemand / or
CommunityInformation
Response /Consequences
Information
Decision SupportSystem
Advanced SystemModification
Adv. Response Modification
Rapid Restoration
Repair and Retrofit
Rapid OrganizationalResponse
Recovery Management
Acceptable
PRE-EVENT CONTROL
POST-EVENT CONTROL
Not Acceptable
Conventional System
Conventional System
System Assessment and Actions
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
System Assessment and Actions
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
System System Diagram Diagram ––(Schematic (Schematic Level of Level of Details) Details)
ResilientCommunity /
System
ResilienceAssessment
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEstimation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Estimation
Sensing &Monitoring
EarthquakeInformation
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEvaluation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Evaluation
Monitoring &Sensing
Facility Systemand / or
CommunityInformation
Response /Consequences
Information
Decision SupportSystem
Advanced SystemModification
Adv. Response Modification
Rapid Restoration
Repair and Retrofit
Rapid OrganizationalResponse
Recovery Management
Acceptable
PRE-EVENT CONTROL
POST-EVENT CONTROL
Not Acceptable
Conventional System
Conventional System
System Assessment and Actions
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
System Assessment and Actions
Conventional SystemConventional System
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Current Current StateState--ofof--thethe--Art Art
ResilientCommunity /
System
ResilienceAssessment
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEstimation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Estimation
Sensing &Monitoring
EarthquakeInformation
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEvaluation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Evaluation
Monitoring &Sensing
Facility Systemand / or
CommunityInformation
Response /Consequences
Information
Decision SupportSystem
Advanced SystemModification
Adv. Response Modification
Rapid Restoration
Repair and Retrofit
Rapid OrganizationalResponse
Recovery Management
Acceptable
PRE-EVENT CONTROL
POST-EVENT CONTROL
Not Acceptable
Conventional System
Conventional System
System Assessment and Actions
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
System Assessment and Actions
System Assessment System Assessment and Actionsand Actions
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
ResilientCommunity /
System
ResilienceAssessment
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEstimation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Estimation
Sensing &Monitoring
EarthquakeInformation
Communityand SystemResilience
PerformanceEvaluation*
ResilienceCriteria
Component andSystem
Evaluation
Monitoring &Sensing
Facility Systemand / or
CommunityInformation
Response /Consequences
Information
Decision SupportSystem
Advanced SystemModification
Adv. Response Modification
Rapid Restoration
Repair and Retrofit
Rapid OrganizationalResponse
Recovery Management
Acceptable
PRE-EVENT CONTROL
POST-EVENT CONTROL
Not Acceptable
Conventional System
Conventional System
System Assessment and Actions
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
Resilience Assessment and Decision System
System Assessment and Actions
Resilience Assessment Resilience Assessment and Decision Systemand Decision System
Knowledge Knowledge Needed for Needed for New New Decision Decision Tools Tools
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Resiliency TargetsResiliency TargetsExample: There is a 95% chance that 80% of hospitals can operate at 90% of their capacity within 5 days Communities cannot articulate such resiliency objectives
Tools to support such statements don’t existCommunities do not operate at this level yet
MCEER to develop knowledge needed to create the tools that could provide such formulation (not the numbers themselves)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
DeliverablesDeliverables
A methodical framework that can be used to construct decision support system for critical facilities
Lifelines and Hospitals as a stand-alones firstIntegrate into framework for all critical systemsDemonstrate how could work using demonstration projects and specific advanced technologies
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Decision Support ToolsDecision Support Tools
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Integrity
t
Structural System ConsiderationsStructural System Considerations
to
Fragility functions for initial limit
state,condition at time ti, and time to
recovery also random variables
1
Collapse
2
12
3
3
Serviceability – “clean aesthetic”Threshold of collapseDamage states
Advanced Technologies have the potential to reduce some of these uncertainties
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Example of Integrated Research Example of Integrated Research Project to Seismic Resilience of Project to Seismic Resilience of Acute Care FacilitiesAcute Care Facilities
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Importance of nonstructural Importance of nonstructural components and contentscomponents and contents
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Research Integration Road MapResearch Integration Road Map
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MCEER Demonstration Hospitals(A. Whittaker, UB)• West Cost (Southern California)• East Coast (NY State)
MCEER Specific Barrier Ground Motion Model(A. Papageorgiou, UB)• Stochastic Modeling Approach• Magnitude-Distance Scenarios• East and West Coast Ground Motions• Near-Field Effects
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Geotechnical Fragilities
GIS Database of Subsurface and Site Characteristics for California Hospital
Facilities (T. O’Rourke, Cornell)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Structural Fragilities
Research on Metallic Dampers (M. Bruneau, UB)
Research on Composite Infill
Panels (A. Aref, UB)
Response of Response of Nonstructural Systems Nonstructural Systems
in Structures with in Structures with Seismic Isolation and Seismic Isolation and
Damping Systems Damping Systems (M. Constantinou, UB)(M. Constantinou, UB)
F req u en cy (H z )
0 .1 1 1 0
Spec
tral A
ccel
erat
ion
(g)
0
2
4
6
1 st F lo o r
2 0
Global Retrofit of Structures by
Weakening and Damping
(A. Reinhorn, UB)
Displacements, D
ORIGINAL
ENHANCEDDAMPING
WEAKENEDBas
e Sh
ear,
V
Displacements, D
ORIGINAL
ENHANCEDDAMPING
WEAKENEDBas
e Sh
ear,
V
Displacements, D
ORIGINAL
ENHANCEDDAMPING
WEAKENEDBas
e Sh
ear,
V
Development of Semi-Active
Control Systems (G. Lee, UB)
Development of Self-Centering
Systems (A. Filiatrault, UB)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Nonstructural Fragilities
Numerical Fragility Numerical Fragility Surfaces for Surfaces for
Distributed Equipment Distributed Equipment (M. Grigoriu, Cornell)(M. Grigoriu, Cornell)
Experimental Fragility Experimental Fragility of Suspended Ceiling of Suspended Ceiling
Systems Systems (A. Reinhorn, A. Whittaker, UB)(A. Reinhorn, A. Whittaker, UB)
Shake Table Testing Shake Table Testing of Piping systems of Piping systems
(M. Maragakis, UNR)(M. Maragakis, UNR)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Resilience Evaluations
Development of Acute Care Hospital Decision Parameters
into Integrated MethodologiesW. Petak, USCD. Alesch, UW
Rehabilitation Decision Analysis
Model
D. Von Winterfeldt, USC
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Fragility Based Rehabilitation
Decision Analysis (M. Grigoriu, Cornell,
D. von Winterfeldt, USC)
Adaptive Decision Support Model
(G. Dargush, UBD.Alesch, UW
W. Petak, USC)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
1) Global IntegrationResearch IntegrationResearch Integration
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1) Local IntegrationResearch IntegrationResearch Integration
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Vision Vision
The same approach can be adopted for the development of innovative and integrated solutions to enhance the resilience of infrastructure against extreme events (natural disasters, technological disasters, and acts of terrorism against our society), and is known worldwide for its ability to deliver superior products to its sponsors.
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Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance ResilienceSpectrum of NeedsSpectrum of NeedsPre-Event
Risk and vulnerability assessment, including the development of risk and vulnerability assessment methodologies, to prioritize the allocation of limited resources; System analysis and design, to investigate the ultimate behavior of systems and foster capacity-design principles for fail-safe outcomes; Improved materials, devices, or systems, to enhance the ability of infrastructure components and systems to withstand hazards; Retrofitting prior to an event.
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance ResilienceSpectrum of NeedsSpectrum of Needs
During Event Sensing technologies, for structural health monitoring, with possible applications for detection, surveillance and prevention
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance ResilienceSpectrum of NeedsSpectrum of NeedsPost-Event
Post-event assessment, including the use of remote sensing (airborne or satellite-based) to rapidly locate areas impacted by a disaster, the type of damage suffered, and rapid assessment of losses; Post-event on-site screening methodologies, to assess safety of structures after an event using simple tools based on expert knowledge; Advanced technologies for repair and restoration following an event;Evaluation test-beds, to test and validate new technologies proposed to achieve above objectives.
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance Resilience
In that perspective, much research results from the field of earthquake engineering could be modified to contribute to this objective. Earthquake engineering research has provided practical solutions to address a number of needs that are similar (although not identical) for a number of hazards.
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Major AccomplishmentsMajor Accomplishments
World Trade Center Research: Comparing and Contrasting Natural and Human-Induced Disasters
Data analysis will advance the conceptualization and quantification of a community’s resilience to disastersEngineering and social science knowledge to address the impact of major urban earthquakes
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Major AccomplishmentMajor Accomplishment
Hurricane Charley Reconnaissance Report
Satellite-Referenced Building Damage Information in the Aftermath of Hurricane Charley
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ConclusionConclusion
Definition of resilience allows to frame objectives in a global integrated model that focus on key issuesOn-going research important to develop the models and technologies to deliver such a framework for acute care facilitiesSelect advanced technologies and demonstration project will be used to provide quantitative data and benchmark for validation
MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH
Thank you!Thank you!
Questions?Questions?