Enhancing the resilience of acute care facilities against ......VISION STATEMENT The overall goal is to enhance the seismic resiliency of communities through improved engineering and

MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH

Enhancing the resilience of Enhancing the resilience of acute care facilities against acute care facilities against

extreme eventsextreme events

Michel BruneauDirector, Multidisciplinary Center for

Earthquake Engineering Research


VISION STATEMENTVISION STATEMENT

The overall goal is to enhance the seismic resiliency of communities through improved engineering and management tools for critical infrastructure systems (water supply, electric power, and hospitals) and emergency management functions. Seismic resilience (technical, organizational, social, and economic) is characterized by reduced probability of system failure, reduced consequences due to failure, and reduced time to system restoration.


Reference: Reference: “A Framework to Quantitatively “A Framework to Quantitatively

Assess and Enhance Assess and Enhance Seismic Resilience”Seismic Resilience”

Earthquake Spectra Journal Earthquake Spectra Journal Michel BRUNEAU (MCEER/University at Buffalo)

Stephanie CHANG (University of British Columbia)Ronald EGUCHI (Imagecat Inc.)

George C. LEE (MCEER)Thomas D. O'ROURKE (Cornell University)

Andrei M. REINHORN (University at Buffalo)Masanobu SHINOZUKA (University of California at Irvine)

Kathleen TIERNEY (University of Colorado) William A. WALLACE (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute)

Detlof VON WINTERFELDT (University of Southern California)


ResilienceResilience

Framework that quantitatively measuresThe “ends” of robustness and rapidityThe “means” of resourcefulness and redundancy

Dimensions of resilienceTechnical and Organizational (T & O)Societal and Economic (S & E)


Measure of Seismic Resilience Measure of Seismic Resilience Conceptual DefinitionConceptual Definition

100

50

0t0 t1 time

QualityOf

Infrastructure(percent)

100

50

0t0 t1 time

QualityOf


Loss of Resilience

Resilience depends on “4Rs”Robustness, Rapidity, Resourcefulness, Redundancy


Adding Resourcefulness DimensionAdding Resourcefulness Dimension

100

50

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Time

QualityOf


Resources

t0

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t1+

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Resources

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t1+


Adding Redundancy DimensionAdding Redundancy Dimension

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Resources

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Resources

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Resources

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Resources

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Resources

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Resources

t0

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t1+

Hospital #1

Hospital #2

Hospital #n

Linkages100

50

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Time

QualityOf


Resources

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t1-t1

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Hospital #1

Hospital #2

Hospital #n

Linkages


19851985Mexico CityMexico City

9,500 Lives30,000 Injuries$4B Loss

19881988ArmeniaArmenia


19951995KobeKobe


19891989Loma PrietaLoma Prieta

62 Lives3,750 Injuries$8B Loss

19941994NorthridgeNorthridge

57 Lives1,500 Injuries$20B Loss

19991999TurkeyTurkey

17,000 Lives46,000 Injuries$7.8B Loss

19991999TaiwanTaiwan



Research StrategiesResearch Strategies

Observations:

Seismic rehabilitation of existing, under-designed systems is most urgently needed.

Well Executed Disaster Management Could Significantly Reduce the Losses


Research StrategiesResearch Strategies

Nationwide upgrading of existing inventory is not fiscally prudent.

However, protecting critical and essential facilities together with efficient response and recovery is a socio-economically viable national strategy for earthquake loss reduction.


Lifelines: Power Systems


Lifelines: Pipeline Systems


HighwaysHighways


Earthquake Response and Earthquake Response and RecoveryRecovery


SPOT Image of the I-5/14 Interchange Change Detection Map Overlaid onto USGS

after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake Aerial Photo - I-5/14 Interchange

(1/17/94) (Changes represented by brown shaded areas)


Advanced GISAdvanced GIS

Empirical Fragility FunctionsEmpirical Fragility Functions

Experiments/AnalysesExperiments/Analyses

DECISION DECISION SUPPORT SUPPORT SYSTEMSSYSTEMS

forfor

Preparedness, Preparedness, Emergency Emergency

Response, and Response, and RestorationRestoration

To MinimizeTo Minimize••Human SufferingHuman Suffering••Physical DamagePhysical Damage••Restoration TimeRestoration Time••Economic LossEconomic Loss

••Interruption ofInterruption ofSocietal ActivitiesSocietal Activities

0.01 0.1 1PGA(g)Pr

obab

ility

of F

aiilu

re(%

) TransformersCircuit BreakersDisconnect Switches

50.0

90.0

99.0

99.999.99

10.0

1.0

0.1

0.01

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 210 100PGV (cm/sec)

2

3

4

56789

2

3

4

0.01

0.10

Rep

air R

ate

(Num

ber o

f Rep

aris/k

m)

CI

DI

AC

HAZUS

SteelTrunk

SteelDistr.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 100PGV (cm/sec)

2

3456789

2

3456789

2

34

0.001

0.010

0.100

Rep

air R

ate

(Num

ber o

f Rep

airs

/km

)

CIDIAC

Fit Equation (DI):log(Y) = 1.83 * log(X) - 9.39R-squared = 0.73

Fit Equation (AC):log(Y) = 2.26 * log(X) - 11.02R-squared = 0.71

Fit Equation (CI):log(Y) = 1.21 * log(X) - 6.78R-squared = 0.84

SteelDistr.

Fit Equation (Steel Distr.):log(Y) = 0.88 * log(X) - 5.28R-squared = 0.90

Loss Estimation ModelsLoss Estimation Models


Seismic Retrofit of Seismic Retrofit of HospitalsHospitals




#

#

#

OUTIN

#

CEO


System System Diagram Diagram ––(Schematic (Schematic Level of Level of Details) Details)

ResilientCommunity /

System

ResilienceAssessment

Communityand SystemResilience

PerformanceEstimation*

ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Estimation

Sensing &Monitoring

EarthquakeInformation


PerformanceEvaluation*

ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Evaluation

Monitoring &Sensing

Facility Systemand / or

CommunityInformation

Response /Consequences

Information

Decision SupportSystem

Advanced SystemModification

Adv. Response Modification

Rapid Restoration

Repair and Retrofit

Rapid OrganizationalResponse

Recovery Management

Acceptable

PRE-EVENT CONTROL

POST-EVENT CONTROL

Not Acceptable

Conventional System

Conventional System

System Assessment and Actions

Resilience Assessment and Decision System




System System Diagram Diagram ––(Schematic (Schematic Level of Level of Details) Details)


System




ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Estimation

Sensing &Monitoring




ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Evaluation

Monitoring &Sensing




Information




Rapid Restoration

Repair and Retrofit


Recovery Management

Acceptable

PRE-EVENT CONTROL

POST-EVENT CONTROL

Not Acceptable

Conventional System

Conventional System





Conventional SystemConventional System


Current Current StateState--ofof--thethe--Art Art


System




ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Estimation

Sensing &Monitoring




ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Evaluation

Monitoring &Sensing




Information




Rapid Restoration

Repair and Retrofit


Recovery Management

Acceptable

PRE-EVENT CONTROL

POST-EVENT CONTROL

Not Acceptable

Conventional System

Conventional System





System Assessment System Assessment and Actionsand Actions



System




ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Estimation

Sensing &Monitoring




ResilienceCriteria

Component andSystem

Evaluation

Monitoring &Sensing




Information




Rapid Restoration

Repair and Retrofit


Recovery Management

Acceptable

PRE-EVENT CONTROL

POST-EVENT CONTROL

Not Acceptable

Conventional System

Conventional System





Resilience Assessment Resilience Assessment and Decision Systemand Decision System

Knowledge Knowledge Needed for Needed for New New Decision Decision Tools Tools


Resiliency TargetsResiliency TargetsExample: There is a 95% chance that 80% of hospitals can operate at 90% of their capacity within 5 days Communities cannot articulate such resiliency objectives

Tools to support such statements don’t existCommunities do not operate at this level yet

MCEER to develop knowledge needed to create the tools that could provide such formulation (not the numbers themselves)


DeliverablesDeliverables

A methodical framework that can be used to construct decision support system for critical facilities

Lifelines and Hospitals as a stand-alones firstIntegrate into framework for all critical systemsDemonstrate how could work using demonstration projects and specific advanced technologies


Decision Support ToolsDecision Support Tools


Integrity

t

Structural System ConsiderationsStructural System Considerations

to

Fragility functions for initial limit

state,condition at time ti, and time to

recovery also random variables

1

Collapse

2

12

3

3

Serviceability – “clean aesthetic”Threshold of collapseDamage states

Advanced Technologies have the potential to reduce some of these uncertainties


Example of Integrated Research Example of Integrated Research Project to Seismic Resilience of Project to Seismic Resilience of Acute Care FacilitiesAcute Care Facilities


Importance of nonstructural Importance of nonstructural components and contentscomponents and contents


Research Integration Road MapResearch Integration Road Map


MCEER Demonstration Hospitals(A. Whittaker, UB)• West Cost (Southern California)• East Coast (NY State)

MCEER Specific Barrier Ground Motion Model(A. Papageorgiou, UB)• Stochastic Modeling Approach• Magnitude-Distance Scenarios• East and West Coast Ground Motions• Near-Field Effects


Geotechnical Fragilities

GIS Database of Subsurface and Site Characteristics for California Hospital

Facilities (T. O’Rourke, Cornell)


Structural Fragilities

Research on Metallic Dampers (M. Bruneau, UB)

Research on Composite Infill

Panels (A. Aref, UB)

Response of Response of Nonstructural Systems Nonstructural Systems

in Structures with in Structures with Seismic Isolation and Seismic Isolation and

Damping Systems Damping Systems (M. Constantinou, UB)(M. Constantinou, UB)

F req u en cy (H z )

0 .1 1 1 0

Spec

tral A

ccel

erat

ion

(g)

0

2

4

6

1 st F lo o r

2 0

Global Retrofit of Structures by

Weakening and Damping

(A. Reinhorn, UB)

Displacements, D

ORIGINAL

ENHANCEDDAMPING

WEAKENEDBas

e Sh

ear,

V

Displacements, D

ORIGINAL

ENHANCEDDAMPING

WEAKENEDBas

e Sh

ear,

V

Displacements, D

ORIGINAL

ENHANCEDDAMPING

WEAKENEDBas

e Sh

ear,

V

Development of Semi-Active

Control Systems (G. Lee, UB)

Development of Self-Centering

Systems (A. Filiatrault, UB)


Nonstructural Fragilities

Numerical Fragility Numerical Fragility Surfaces for Surfaces for

Distributed Equipment Distributed Equipment (M. Grigoriu, Cornell)(M. Grigoriu, Cornell)

Experimental Fragility Experimental Fragility of Suspended Ceiling of Suspended Ceiling

Systems Systems (A. Reinhorn, A. Whittaker, UB)(A. Reinhorn, A. Whittaker, UB)

Shake Table Testing Shake Table Testing of Piping systems of Piping systems

(M. Maragakis, UNR)(M. Maragakis, UNR)


Resilience Evaluations

Development of Acute Care Hospital Decision Parameters

into Integrated MethodologiesW. Petak, USCD. Alesch, UW

Rehabilitation Decision Analysis

Model

D. Von Winterfeldt, USC


Fragility Based Rehabilitation

Decision Analysis (M. Grigoriu, Cornell,

D. von Winterfeldt, USC)

Adaptive Decision Support Model

(G. Dargush, UBD.Alesch, UW

W. Petak, USC)


1) Global IntegrationResearch IntegrationResearch Integration


1) Local IntegrationResearch IntegrationResearch Integration


Vision Vision

The same approach can be adopted for the development of innovative and integrated solutions to enhance the resilience of infrastructure against extreme events (natural disasters, technological disasters, and acts of terrorism against our society), and is known worldwide for its ability to deliver superior products to its sponsors.


Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance ResilienceSpectrum of NeedsSpectrum of NeedsPre-Event

Risk and vulnerability assessment, including the development of risk and vulnerability assessment methodologies, to prioritize the allocation of limited resources; System analysis and design, to investigate the ultimate behavior of systems and foster capacity-design principles for fail-safe outcomes; Improved materials, devices, or systems, to enhance the ability of infrastructure components and systems to withstand hazards; Retrofitting prior to an event.


Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance ResilienceSpectrum of NeedsSpectrum of Needs

During Event Sensing technologies, for structural health monitoring, with possible applications for detection, surveillance and prevention


Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance ResilienceSpectrum of NeedsSpectrum of NeedsPost-Event

Post-event assessment, including the use of remote sensing (airborne or satellite-based) to rapidly locate areas impacted by a disaster, the type of damage suffered, and rapid assessment of losses; Post-event on-site screening methodologies, to assess safety of structures after an event using simple tools based on expert knowledge; Advanced technologies for repair and restoration following an event;Evaluation test-beds, to test and validate new technologies proposed to achieve above objectives.


Steps to Enhance ResilienceSteps to Enhance Resilience

In that perspective, much research results from the field of earthquake engineering could be modified to contribute to this objective. Earthquake engineering research has provided practical solutions to address a number of needs that are similar (although not identical) for a number of hazards.


Major AccomplishmentsMajor Accomplishments

World Trade Center Research: Comparing and Contrasting Natural and Human-Induced Disasters

Data analysis will advance the conceptualization and quantification of a community’s resilience to disastersEngineering and social science knowledge to address the impact of major urban earthquakes


Major AccomplishmentMajor Accomplishment

Hurricane Charley Reconnaissance Report

Satellite-Referenced Building Damage Information in the Aftermath of Hurricane Charley


ConclusionConclusion

Definition of resilience allows to frame objectives in a global integrated model that focus on key issuesOn-going research important to develop the models and technologies to deliver such a framework for acute care facilitiesSelect advanced technologies and demonstration project will be used to provide quantitative data and benchmark for validation


Thank you!Thank you!

Questions?Questions?

Documents

Enhancing the resilience of acute care facilities against ......VISION STATEMENT The overall goal is to enhance the seismic resiliency of communities through improved engineering and