Engineering our future: design, life cycle and systems thinkingChris McMahon
Introduction
OUR ENGINEERED WORLDConsidering the engineered world as material flows
Energy
Emissions
Our economic
activities generate
material flows from
sources to sinks:
• Energy is the
lifeblood of
these flows
• Many materials
stay in use for
years as
infrastructure
and capital
resources
We have constraints at each end of the flows
http://copperbullion.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/3-ton-nugget.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fe/Evolution_minerai_cuivre.svg
IEA projection of global all-liquids production to 2035.
Miller R G , and Sorrell S R Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2014;372:20130179
©2014 by The Royal Society
2014 actual
“adapting rapidly and peacefully to oil scarcity in a manner that does not
destroy the global environment provides humanity with a formidable challenge”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algal_bloom
http://www.lung.org/assets/images/smog.jpg
http://images.businessweek.com/imageserve/2014-11/7295c9d2e6d8d2bbd01aba4d472902c5-682x512.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCL8kBlWsAAknvC.jpg
We have an urgent need for action
We have an urgent need for action - but we have incommensurate world views:
‘‘Facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent” (Ravetz, 2004)
Ecocentrism Technocentrism
Deep ecology Communalism Accommodation Cornucopian
Green labels
Extreme
preservationist
Resource
preservationist
Resource
conservationist
and managerial
Resource
exploitative and
growth oriented
Type of
economy
Very deep green
economy.
Highly regulated
Deep green
economy.
Steady state
economy
Green economy,
green markets,
economic
incentives
Anti-green
economy.
Unfettered free
markets
Management
Reduced scale of
economy and
population.
Zero economic
and population
growth.
Modified
economic growth.
Primary policy to
maximise growth.
Adapted from Dusch, Crilly and Moultrie, 2010, and Pearce, 1993
We have an urgent need for action
Design is about understanding how things work:
“Design is a funny word. Some people think design means how it looks.
But of course, if you dig deeper, it’s really how it works. To design
something really well, you have to get it. You have to really grok
[understand] what it’s all about.” [Steve Jobs]
Design is about effecting change
“Engineers are not the only professional designers. Everyone designs
who devises courses of action aimed at changing existing situations into
preferred ones”, [Herb Simon]
Design is about synthesis and creation
“A designer is an emerging synthesis of artist, inventor, mechanic,
objective economist and evolutionary strategist”, [R Buckminster Fuller]
These are design issues!
PRINCIPLESHow should we think of the artificial world in design terms?
The artificial world is created
from technologies, which
exploit natural phenomena
[Arthur].
Designers create by
assembling and adapting
these technologies
Design also contributes to
development of useful
artefacts from newly
discovered phenomena
The nature of the designed world
Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking the Public vs. Private Sector Myths. London: Anthem.
http://www.nanotech.dtu.dk/english/samples-newsletter/apr-15/graphene
We concentrate on ‘dominant designs’
We concentrate on ‘dominant designs’
ENGINEERING SYSTEMS
Industrial revolution
Epoch of artefacts and great inventions
Epoch of complex systems
Epoch of engineeringsystems
Automobile Telephone Light bulb
Highways PSTN Electric power
grid
Thermodynamics Electricity
Chemistry Controls
Radio waves New materials
Steam engine
Transportation
systemCommunication
systemEnergy
system
Ships Satellites
Air Rail
Internet Coal Gas Water
Solar Wind NuclearGPS SMS
21
stce
ntu
ry 2
0th
centu
ry 1
9th
centu
ry
Adapted from From De Weck et al., Engineering Systems, 2011
We live in a world of engineered systems
Design is at all
scales from the
infrastructure
system to nano
scale, and at
levels of detail
from whole
architecture to
precision
dimensions and
surface
conditions
Design happens at all scales!
http://www.senodia.com/Public/Front/images/technology_01.jpghttp://www.remsol.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/image1.jpeg
https://inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2010/05/OMA-Roadmap-2050-13.jpg
http://images.books24x7.com/bookimages/id_21477/fig16-11.jpg
http://www.nanotech.dtu.dk/-/media/institutter/nanotech/nyheder/2015/smartdiagnos-illustration.ashx
From De Weck et al., Engineering Systems, 2011
Design considers many viewpoints
MODES OF CHANGEIn what different ways do we design and redesign?
Designers develop and refine
both the formulation of a
‘problem’ and ideas for its
solution.
In doing so they propose
concepts, expressed as
solution principles.
These form design patterns for
reuse.
Design concepts and solution principles
We can reduce impact
without changing
solution principle by
modifying design
parameters, for
example:
• More insulation in a
refrigerator
• Reduced
drag/friction/ other
losses
• Reduced weight
• Optimisation/ design
space search
Fixed solution principle but modified parameters
http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/shell-ecomarathon/_jcr_content/pageHeader/image.img.1600.jpeg/1453291465249/red-and-yellow-car.jpeg
In internal
substitution [Arthur],
we change some
element of a design
pattern:
• Material
substitution e.g.
composite aircraft
• Functional
substitution e.g.
electrical motors
and actuators
Making a substitution within the solution principle
1916
1930s
1980s
2016
In structural
deepening we add to
an existing design
pattern to add
functionality, improve
control, remove
adverse effects etc.
• E.g. Emissions
control on engines
• Improved controls
on heating/lighting
systems
• ‘Smart’ cities and
homes
Adding functionality to the solution principle
Images from http://www.dtu.dk/english/News/2016/03/Dynamo44-Smart-cities
Improving the circularity of the solution principle
We can reduce
resource use and
impacts of waste by
designing for a
circular economy:
• Design for material
recovery
• Design for
remanufacture
• Design for
upgrading
• Design for long life
and easy repair
Compatible materials
Design for
disassembly
Replaceable
wearing
surfaces
Modularity
Open designs/
Standards
Reverse
logistics
We can modify
the operation of
the artefact:
• Speed
reduction
• Improved
load factors
• Operation
and driving
strategies
Modifying the operation of the artefact
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https://tokyodesu.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/tokyo_train_crush.jpg
What is the potential for improvement?
Vary
parameters
Internal
substitution
Add
functionalityImprove
circularity
.Tyndall Centre University of Manchester
Aircraft fuel burn
Solution
principle
Operation
We create the
novel by proposing
new technological
combinations, often
by combining
principles from two
or more existing
technologies
Novel solution principle
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/what-is-a-hyperloop-1.4216469
http://www.uwindsor.ca/engineering/dailynews/2016-03-23/
http://www.iosolar.com/http://www.foronuclear.org/images/floating-nuclear-plant-revised-MIT.jpg © MIT
Servitisation,
product-service
systems (PSS) and
the sharing
economy offer
alternative value
propositions:
• Selling or
sharing the
function of the
product
• Allowing multiple
uses, including
down-cycling
Servitisation and sharing
Transportation Retail
AccommodationServices
Finance
We can use the
design of artefacts to
try to influence user
behaviour:
• Aesthetic and
graphical design
• Social norms
• IT apps and
infrastructure
• Changes to
default options
• Design of public
spaces and
infrastructure
Design for behavioural change
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http://www.newport.gov.uk/images/Environment/
Streetscene/Waste%20%20Recycling/
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http://www.peakapp.eu/
https://www.thelocal.dk/20160620/world-wowed-by-new-copenhagen-bike-path
[In clothes washing in Japan] . . . all colours
are washed at room temperature. Further,
[for some families] after the family members
have all bathed in the same bath water, the
water is transferred to the washing machine
for the clothes wash.
Wilhite et al. (1996). A cross-cultural analysis of household
energy use behaviour in Japan and Norway.
Reframing focuses on
trying to generate a
different view of a
problem situation:
• E.g. Asking rather
than how do we
heat a building,
how do we keep its
occupants warm?
Changing the problem being addressed
We have discarded
many technologies
because the low
cost of fossil fuels
made it cost
effective to do so. It
may be a good time
to revisit them!
Revisiting ‘discarded’ solution principles
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ea/3a/1a/ea3a1ab4e6a86871b543c984c510dd9f.jpg
MIT Senseable City Lab / AMS
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2015/12/fruit-walls-urban-farming.html
PSI theory: spaces in
design:
• The problem space
considers “what is
being designed?”
• The social space
considers stakeholders
and their motivations
and aspirations.
• The institutional
space considers the
institutional context –
e.g. economic, and
regulatory.[Subrahmanian et al 2017]
We must not forget social and institutional factors
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http://cdn.downtoearth.org.in/dte/userfiles/images/cook-stoves.jpg
Rs. 300 a
month is
expensive,
but
Rs. 10 a
day is fine! [Harish
Hande]
https://selcofoundation.org/
SOME IMPLICATIONS
Behavioural or systemic
responses to efficiency gains
and reduced costs may
counterbalance the gains
through the rebound effect
Efficiency gains may prolong
our lock-in to resource-
intensive modes of living
There may be energy and
other costs of increased
complexity and it may lead to
reduced resilience
Some dangers
Fossil fuels pervade
our lives and many of
the technologies that
we use today will not
be available to us in
the future without very
major adaptation.
The ‘extinction of technologies’
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As an example of
institutional factors,
consider regulation:
• For many
businesses it is a
driver for change
• But in many ways
it contributes to
lock-in, for
example in our
urban zoning
regulations
Institutional factors
Google Map data
“‘Success’ today is largely associated with derivative measures of
increasing gross domestic product, profitability, speed or salary.
Yet our value systems are based on integral measures of quality
and stock: reputation, heritage, journeys and relationships. We
need to expand the dialogue of climate mitigation to reflect these
values. Challenging our habits of energy use should be the first
priority of climate policy.”
[Julian Allwood, University of Cambridge, letter to Nature, 2016]
Social and political factors are key
In order to understand how things work and how we might change them
we need:
• Life cycle thinking - deep knowledge of the impacts of our
activities on the world
• Systems thinking – how the systems of the artificial world develop
and interact with those of the natural world
• Design thinking – knowledge of how to change the world and in
what ways, and the courage and will to do so
Start by doing what's necessary; then do what's possible;
and suddenly you are doing the impossible. [Francis of Assisi]
Concluding remarks