The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energypd-symposium.org/archive/2017/files/csfd/03. CSFD-Stiesdal.pdftons to 10.000 tons for 7 MW class turbines • Construction methods from shipbuilding

Stiesdal

© Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 1

The Future Challenges

of

Sustainable Energy

Henrik Stiesdal, 10.11.17

Stiesdal


Why work in sustainable energy?

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Source: NCDC, NOAA

The key driver is mitigation of climate change

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Glo

bal

Te

mp

era

ture

An

om

aly

(de

g.C

.)

Monthly 5-year average

+0.017 deg.C per year

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Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us!

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Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us!

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Predicted temperature rise in 50 years

Source: NCDC, NOAA

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On a personal level we may learn to adapt to some of the effects …

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… Other effects will no be so easy to adapt to

Stiesdal residence

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One of the results will be hundreds of millions of climate refugees

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We know what the problem is ...

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... And we know the solutions!

Source: Siemens, First Solar

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The global scene - development in new power generation capacity

Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016

Cru

de

oil

pri

ce (

$/B

arre

l)

New

cap

acit

y, (

$B

n)

Renewables

Fossil

Large hydro

Nuclear

Crude oil

53.5% of new invstments

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The global scene - development in new power generation capacity

Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016

Cru

de

oil

pri

ce (

$/B

arre

l)

New

cap

acit

y, (

$B

n)

Renewables

Fossil

Large hydro

Nuclear

Crude oil

53.5% of new invstments

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Distribution of new renewables capacity, 2015, $Bn

2

3

4

6

110

161

0 50 100 150 200

Geothermal

Biofuels

Small hydro

Biomass

Wind

Solar

Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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The future looks better than before –

Source: IEA

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But we are far from done yet!

Source: IEA

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The global wind market development

Source: GWEC, IEA

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cu

mu

late

d in

stal

lati

on

s (M

W)

An

nu

al in

stal

lati

on

s (M

W)

Annual Cumulated

$110 Bn.

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Making renewables happen

A preferred source of electricity must be

able to deliver the desired electric energy -

• to the necessary extent,

• without destroying the climate,

• without excessive public opposition,

• at an affordable cost, and

• when it is needed

Let us check it out for wind power

?????

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To the necessary extent ...

- Det var osse meget sjovere, dengang vi selv producerede varmen.

Politiken, 25.08.89Miljøminister Lone Dybkjær oplyser, at de vandsenge, der findes rundt om i Danmarks sovekamre, bruger lige så meget strøm, som alle danske vindmøller fremstiller

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To the necessary extent ...

Source:

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Win

d p

rod

uct

ion

re

lati

ve t

o lo

ad

Wind power share in Denmark

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Area use for offshore wind at 100% of load (pre-Brexit!)

Area use. Denmark

• DK load: 35 Bn. kWh/year

• Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year

• Area required: 1115 km2

• Corresponds to one offshore wind

farm measuring 35 km x 35 km

Area use, EU

• EU load: 2.800 Bn. kWh/year

• Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year

• Area required: 90.000 km2

• Corresponds to nine offshore wind

farms, each measuring 100 km x

100 km

Still plenty of sea available for

shipping and fishing!

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?????

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Without destroying the climate …

820

490

4824 12 12 11

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Coal Gas (CC) PV(utility)

Largehydro

Wind off Nuclear Wind on

Life

cycl

e C

O2

, g/k

Wh

Source: Energinet.dk

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?????

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Without creating unnecessary public opposition ...

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How the opponent sees the wind farm!

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A typical modern offshore wind farm as seen from the beach

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?????

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Disruptive 2016 cost reductions in bottom-fixed offshore wind

Source: Berkeley National Lab

Vattenfall near-costal

Shell Borssele III-IV

DONG Borssele I-II

Vattenfall KriegersENEL, Morocco

DONG + EnBW, DE

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The message is sinking in!

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?????

?

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A classical picture of production and load

Source: EMD

Load

Central

Decentral

Wind

Spot

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• We need to expand low-cost offshore

wind power

• We need to develop energy storage, and

• We need to be able to finance this effort

????

÷

?

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Willy ”Slick” Sutton

Source: FBI

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Sutton’s Law

When asked why he robbed banks, Sutton said:

“Because that is where the money is!”

Reality – from Sutton’s memoir

“I never said it. The credit belongs to some enterprising reporter…

Why did I rob banks? Because I enjoyed it. I loved it. I was more alive

when I was inside a bank, robbing it, than at any other time in my life.”

Source: Sutton W, Linn E: Where the Money Was: The Memoirs of a Bank Robber. Viking Press (1976)

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Sutton’s Law

The incarnation of Focus

“Because that is where the money is!”

So – where is the money?

• Research

• Invention

• Innovation

• Industrialization

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The most spectacular piece of innovation in this century

1st iPhone

Released January 2007

The Apple phone was widely discussed prior to release –yet the “full package” was truly new

1st iPod

Released October 2001

The iPod and iTunes dramatically changed the music business, and the way we interact with music players

The iPad introduced an entirely new PC product line;reshaping centuries-old traditions of paper-based reading

1st iPad

Released

April 2010

Number of defendable patents:

Zero

Source: Apple

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The effects of the iPhone

Source: Vatican

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Innovation in wind power - growth in turbine size

Source: Siemens

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The first Bonus turbine – 30 kW, Tambohuse, 1981

Status

▪ Grid connected October 1981

▪ Still operating in its 35rd year

▪ Annual energy 18,500 kWh

▪ Total Energy 630,000 kWh

Source: Siemens

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The most recent Siemens turbine, 6 MW, Westermost Rough

Status

▪ Commissioned 2015

▪ Calculated lifetime 24 years

▪ Annual Energy 25.000.000 kWh

▪ Will in 10 days produce same energy

as the first turbine spent 35 years

producing

Source: Siemens

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The Siemens 8 MW rotor

Source: Siemens

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The 75 m blade for the Siemens 8 MW

Picture credit: Siemens

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The effect of the larger rotors on DK wind productivity

Source: Naturlig Energu

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cap

acit

y Fa

cto

r

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The money is also in industrialization!

Source: Ford Motor Company

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The learning curve, Li-ion batteries and crystalline PV modules

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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Floating wind power

Picture credit: Statoil

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The US offshore wind potential

Source: NREL

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The Japan offshore wind potential

Sources: JWPA

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Existing floating wind concepts

Picture credits: Siemens, Principle Power, Hitachi, U.Maine, MHI, Mitsui

Shared characteristics

• Very heavy – from 2500 tons to 10.000 tons for 7 MW class turbines

• Construction methods from shipbuilding and offshore oil and gas

• Fabrication typically at port of floater launch

• Build times typically measured in months

• Tens of thousands of man-hours per foundation for steel cutting, fitting, welding, handling, etc.

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First Floating Wind Farm, Statoil’s Hywind Scotland

Sources: Statoil

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The TetraSpar floating concept

• Offers disruptive reduction in Cost of Energy from

floating offshore wind

• Combines benefits from known floater concepts

• Is suitable for genuine industrialization

• Applies proven technologies

• Can be configured for installation at water depths

from 10 m to more than 1000 m

• Facilitates local manufacturing and truly global

application

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• Offers disruptive reduction in Cost of Energy from

floating offshore wind

• Combines benefits from known floater concepts

• Is suitable for genuine industrialization

• Applies proven technologies

• Can be configured for installation at water depths

from 10 m to more than 1000 m

• Facilitates local manufacturing and truly global

application

Solution element #2 - industrialization

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Taking advantage of a world champion …

The humble wind turbine tower

• Probably the world’s lowest cost per kg of

any large steel structure

• High quality welds and surface protection

• More than 20,000 towers manufactured

annually in highly industrialized processes

How did we get there?

• Separation of fabrication and installation

• Modularization and standardization

• No IP of any significance – costs kept low

through open competition

Picture credit: Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association

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The keyword for TetraSpar – Industrialization the onshore way

Mindset

• Conventional thinking

• We have designed this structure – now,

how do we build it?

• TetraSpar thinking

• We need to manufacture this way –

now, how do we design it?

Concept

• Modular – all components factory-made,

transported by road

• Components assembled at quayside with

bolts (not exposed to sea water)

• Turbine mounted in harbor and towed to

site, no installation vessels

• Weight 1000-1500 t for 8 MW turbine

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How an assembly and installation area might look

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Launching floater using land-based crane

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Target cost trajectory for TetraSpar

Source: DoE, NREL, IEA

TetraSpar

50

-10

0

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Getting floater ready, wind generator and turbine in background

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Testing

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wind power



????

÷

?

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Thermal Battery Storage system

• Energy storage system based on storage

of thermal energy

• Storage medium crushed rock (basalt) in

insulated tanks

• Charging and discharging with compressor

and turbine, using thermodynamic

processes

• Charging: Heat pump cycle (150% eff.)

• Discharging: Brayton cycle (40% eff.)

• Round-trip efficiency: 60&

1 Motor

2 Compressor

3 Turbine

4 Cold storage tank

5 Hot storage tank

6 Recuperator

7 Cooler (not used during charging)

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Thermal Battery compared with known storage technologies

Topic Li-ion Pump H2O CAES Hydrogen SST

Technology readiness

charge-discharge

Mature Mature Mature Development

stage

Mature

Technology readiness

storage unit

Mature Mature Mature Mature Development

stage

Round-trip efficiency 90% 85% 40-60% 30-50% 35-65+%

Round-trip energy

cost

High Low Low Medium Low

Energy density High Low Low High High

Footprint Small Large Small Small Small

Scalability, power 0.01-25 MW 50-1000 MW 5-100 MW 1-1000 MW 1-1000+ MW

Scalability, energy 0.01-25 MWh 100-10.000

MWh

10-1000

MWh

1-100.000

MWh

1-100.000

MWh

Location requirement None Special

topography

Special

geology

Special

geology

None

Raw material use High None None Moderate

(electrolyzer)

None

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Storage costs depend on charging costs

6099 119 99

395 409

703 693

95131

195

127

420 440

735 725

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Co

st o

f En

erg

y fr

om

Sto

rage

, $/M

Wh

Charge @ $0/MWh Charge @ $20/MWh

• 24 h storage capacity• 1 charge-discharge

cycle per day• DoD 50%

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Google pumped-heat energy storage system

Source: Bloomberg

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wind power



????

÷

?

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The Stanford Analysis

Source: Stanford

Three related challenges, confront

scaling up clean energy spending in

line with the IEA’s 450 Scenario:

• The Quantity Problem

• The Quality Problem

• The Location Problem

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Source: Stanford

The Quantity Problem

• The annual investments needed to

keep global warming under 2

degrees C would absorb a very

significant portion of the world’s

total annual investible capital;

• On average, institutional investors

put to work $3.4 trillion annually

• The IEA’s 450 Scenario depends

on investors purchasing clean

energy stocks and bonds, or

directly lending to (“debt”) and

investing in (“equity”) clean energy

projects for $2.3 trillion annually.

Sustainable energy requires 2/3 of

all annual investments

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Source: Stanford

The Quality Problem

• The key generation technologies

(wind and solar) have reached

universal bankability at western-

world utility scale.

• However, many applications of

wind and solar, and many

supporting technologies (electricity

networks, other low-CO2

technologies, energy savings,

etrc.) are seen as having higher

risk profiles

• A large part of the investment

money available is substantially

very risk averse

The risk profiles don’t match

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Source: Stanford

The Location Problem

• We must triple global clean energy

spending within an annual global

pool of investible capital that is

mostly held in OECD nations.

• Much of the investments will have

to be spent in the non-OECD

developing world to deploy clean

energy where it is most needed,

with all the attendant risk.

The investments are needed where

the money isn’t

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The future trajectory - the Lazard LCoE Analysis

Source: Lazard

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The Lazard LCoE Analysis

Source: Lazard

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Lazard’s LCoE Values for Wind and PV, 2012-2016

Source: Lazard

10

100

1000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LCO

E [$

/MW

h]

Wind Solar PV

Gas reference

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We are up against a lot of inertia …

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… But we have a bright future in sustainable energy!

Status

• We have beaten coal and are beating gas on good wind and solar sites

• We will ultimately beat gas on all relevant sites

The biggest challenges are

• Inertia

• Investment constraints

What we need to continue is

• Innovation, also on finances

• Industrialization

If we succeed

• The question across the world will change from

• “How can we afford it”

• to

• “How can we afford not to?”

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Disruption – 5th Avenue, New York City, Easter 1900

Source:New York City Library

Spot the car!

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Disruption – 5th Avenue, New York City, Easter 1913

Spot the horse!

Source:New York City Library

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Your moment of Zen

Siemens 8 MW wind turbine

▪ The future offshore workhorse

▪ Annual Energy Production 25

million kWh at an offshore site

▪ 50 pcs. 8 MW at an offshore

site have an AEP equal to the

annual electricity consumption

of the 290.000 households in

Copenhagen

▪ Likely to be the lowest cost

source of green electricity from

2020 onwards

▪ Designed and built in Denmark

That is kind of OK!

Stiesdal


Thanks for your attention

Henrik Stiesdal

[email protected]

Documents

The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energypd-symposium.org/archive/2017/files/csfd/03. CSFD-Stiesdal.pdftons to 10.000 tons for 7 MW class turbines • Construction methods from shipbuilding