Economy & Rates
September 2015 (figures and charts updated on 9 September 2015)
Bruno Cavalier - Chief Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.81.35
Fabien Bossy - Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.85.38
The sun is rising in the West, the fog thickens in the East (*)
Tables of forecasts pages 15-16
Statistical and chart appendix pages 18-42
(*) For more details, see our Economy Report published under the same title
Strictement confidentiel
2
• In the West, the US economy is getting closer to its growth cycle peak, whereas the recovery in the Eurozone is ongoing and expanding. In the East,
China continues to slow, a little more so than expected not so long ago. This is severely affecting commodity-producing countries. As a result,
commodity prices are falling and emerging market currencies are depreciating. All this raises the degree of uncertainty and makes the markets more
nervous. World growth is not collapsing (this is not at all like September 2008) but it is not managing to top 3%, as was generally expected.
• China is a source of concern for good and bad reasons. It is the bad reasons that have received most attention in recent weeks. The bursting of the
stockmarket bubble is not the start of a systemic crisis but an epiphenomenon that will have very few repercussions on the economy. The alleged
“devaluation” of the yuan is nothing of the sort. It is not a declaration of “currency war”, nor the precursor of a repeat of the Asian crisis of 1997
(external debt crisis, followed by a series of industrial and banking collapses).
• The good reasons to pay attention to what is happening in China lie in two areas. First, the transformation of its growth model. Second, the conduct of
its economic policy. Since the start of 2015, industrial activity has slowed sharply and it is not impossible that the “Manchurian” region (the north-east)
is in recession. Over-capacities exist, putting heavy pressure on investment, the traditional growth driver. Services continue to grow, but there is no
guarantee that this rebalancing is always well controlled. The country’s economic authorities have also contributed to the recent anxiety by taking
contradictory decisions about the stockmarket or obscure ones about the currency. The Chinese central bank and government do not lack tools to
stabilise the economic and financial situations, but the challenge posed by the transition of their growth model is unprecedented in view of the country’s
size.
• What should one think about an economy that is growing above its potential rate, whose unemployment rate has just fallen to its full employment level,
whose car sales are at a ten-year high and whose residential construction is at a eight-year high, and whose budget deficit is falling effortlessly thanks to
higher tax revenues, all this without visible strains on prices or wages? That it is in fine shape, of course. And that its central bank would be fully
justified in making its monetary policy a little more normal in the near future. This is a precise description of the US.
• The dramatisation of Greece’s problems throughout the first half of the year has not downgraded the Eurozone’s economic outlook in any way. The
spike in market volatility and concerns about emerging countries have not weakened confidence. The external environment is admittedly not a negligible
factor (especially in Germany’s case), but the ongoing recovery is domestic, driven by household consumption. Nearly everything has come together for
growth to continue gathering pace and for inflation to exit the danger zone. Demand is benefiting from several reflationary shocks, either external in
origin (weakness of oil prices and the euro) or internal (loosening of the policy mix, recovery of the credit cycle).
Summary The sun is rising in the West, the fog thickens in the East
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
3
Markets What extreme concerns were expressed by recent corrections (stockmarket, FX, commodities)?
Sources: Thomson Reuters, WEF, Oddo Securities.
• Concern no.1: global financial crisis
• Recession in China Collapse in demand for commodities, fall in
prices, global deflation, etc.
• Concern no.2: currency war
• Devaluation in China chain reaction in the rest of the world,
tensions between China and the US, China and Japan…
• Concern no.3: quantitative tightening
• FX intervention in China sale of US securities, risk of a bond
market crash
• Exit from the ZIRP in the US
10
12
14
16
18
20
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP World liquidity in US dollars *
* US monetary base + world FX reserves in USD
trend 07-13
25
35
45
55
65
75
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
trl $ World equity market capitalisation
-35 trl
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
BrazilRussia
MalaysiaTurkey
S.AfricaIndonesia
MexicoThailandS.KoreaTaiwan
Sing.India
Philip.China
last 2 months FX changes against the USD (in %)
depreciation (-) appreciation (+)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
4
World growth Hopes for an acceleration of world growth in 2015 are dead
Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF, Oddo Securities.
• Growth has fallen below the post-crisis new-normal of 3%
• In H1 2015, world GDP grew by ≈2.5% on an annualised basis
• Aside from Russia and Brazil, there has been no collapse to date.
• The acceleration hoped for in 2016 is compromised
• China is an unknown
• The adjustment of consensus macro forecasts is still to come
• Last July, the IMF was still forecasting world growth of 3.3% in 2015
(vs. 3.4% in 2014) and 3.8% in 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
09 10 11 12 13 14 15
q/q% (annual rate)
World real GDP quarterly growth
Q1 2
009:
-5%
0
3
6
9
12
10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Real GDP growth: developed vs emerging countries
Developed countriesEmerging countries ex-ChinaChina
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Real GDP growth: Russia & Brazil
Russia*
Brazil
* Q2 2015 is estimated
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
5
China (1) The Chinese economy is slowing because it is undergoing a rebalancing
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• (False) debate about the measurement of growth
• Official figures are imprecise
• Official figures eliminate the volatility of the growth cycle
• Official figures are not necessarily false
• A multi-speed economy
• “Manchurian” recession (industry)
• Refocusing on services
• The Chinese economy is undergoing a transformation
• Tertiary sector bigger than secondary sector since 2012
• Urbanisation rate barely above 50% 0
5
10
15
20
25
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Real GDP growth (official) Li Keqiang Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% China: nominal GDP growth
"Manchuria" (30% of total)
Rest of China (70% of total)
8
11
14
17
20
23
30
35
40
45
50
55
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% total% total China nominal GDP: breakdown by sectors
Secondary sectorTertiary sector
Primary sector (rhs)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
6
China (2) The priorities of the economic policy are unclear (stockmarket, FX).and this creates anxiety
Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF, Oddo Securities.
• Stockmarket: contradictory decisions by the authorities
• Difficulty in accepting market forces
• Foreign exchange: confusion about the authorities’ motives
• There has been no Chinese “devaluation”.
• Intervention tools have not been exhausted but the
economic message is confused
• Where does the economic reform programme really
stand in the Chinese government’s agenda?
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14
1USD = …CNY
devaluation (33% O/N)
end of peg
Asian crisis
Greatrecession
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
12 13 14 15
1US$ = …CNY (renminbi)
CNY weaker vs USD
0
10
20
30
40
50
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
% Chinese FX reserves (% GDP)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% G4* monetary policy rate China policy rate
*G4 = Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
7
China (3) Implications of the Chinese slowdown
Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF, Oddo Securities.
• Domestic implications
• Transition of the growth model
• Reform agenda (SOE, market deregulation)
• Overcapacity/domestic debt
• International implications
• Despite its weight, China does not explain everything
• Exposure to Chinese demand
• Exposure to commodity prices
• The Chinese slowdown and drop in commodity prices are having
opposing macro effects in many countries
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Commodity price index China PPI (rhs)
ChinaIndia
Indo.
Korea
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
PolandEMERGING
US
EMU
Japan
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
avg. growth Q2 13-Q2 15
avg. growth 2000-2007
Real GDP growth: pre-crisis vs current
below the 45 line, growth weaker than pre-crisis
% total % GDP % total % GDP
Korea 26.8 8.9 30.1 12.2
Australia 11.5 1.5 34.7 5.8
Africa 6.2 2.0 13.8 5.4
Japan 19.3 2.3 23.8 3.6
South Africa 3.5 0.7 11.7 3.0
Germany 3.4 1.1 6.3 2.3
Indonesia 8.4 2.1 11.6 2.3
World 6.2 1.3 9.4 2.2
Russia 6.3 1.7 7.8 2.1
Brazil 6.4 0.9 19.5 1.9
Latin America 3.4 0.7 9.6 1.8
India 10.3 1.1 8.4 1.3
European Union 2.2 0.6 3.8 1.2
Canada 1.9 0.6 4.6 1.2
US 6.2 0.4 10.2 0.9
20142004
Exports to China (mainland + HK) for selected countries/regions
Strictement confidentiel
8
Oil The fall in prices is reflationary for the US and Europe
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• Excess supply in the oil market
• Demand factor: slowdown in China + emerging countries
• Supply factor: OPEC vs shale, Iranian nuclear agreement
• Different macro effects according to the time horizon and country
• Negative immediate impact on prices
• Transfers of resources from producers to consumers
• See our Economy Report of January 2015: “Black gold. Green light for
growth. Red alert on inflation”
PPP $ Current $
Some winners % GDP
- US 16.3 22.4 0.9
- EMU 12.0 17.1 1.5
- China 16.5 13.3 1.3
- Japan 6.8 6.1 2.1
- India 6.8 2.6 2.8
- S.Korea 1.7 1.9 3.6
Some losers
- Russia 3.3 2.7 -8.1
- Canada 1.5 2.3 -2.1
- Mexico 2.0 1.7 -1.5
- S.Arabia 1.5 1.0 -25.6
- Nigeria 1.0 0.8 -8.0
- Norway 0.3 0.7 -7.2
- Iran 1.2 0.5 -7.6
* based on supply/demand balance of petro leum products (US EIA data)
Net gain/loss*
(w ith current oil price drop)
% world GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% World inflation *World inflation *
*current $ GDP-weighted
oil >140$/b
oil<40$/boil<50$/b
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2014 2015
Brent price ($/b)
2014
2015
January June December
-55% -50%
?
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
9
US (1) The US economy has passed its mid-cycle
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• Unemployment has fallen back to its equilibrium level
• Improvement in all measures of under-employment
• Consumer spending is dynamic
• Growth in employment
• Growth in real incomes (oil effect)
• No fiscal restriction
• The specific features of this expansion phase
• Numerous soft patches (Q4 2012, Q1 2014, Q1 2015)
• Ultra-accommodative monetary policy
23 22 3996
27 31 5096
75
0
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
1855-1900 1900-1945 1945-1983 1983-2007 current cycle
months Duration of US expansions over the following periods...
median duration
average duration
maximum duration
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% labor force US unemployment rate
Fed's long-term equilibrium rate
CBO's NAIRU
25
50
75
100
125
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
index Auto sales Core retail sales (real) New home sales*
* 9mma
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
10
US (2) Neither the Fed nor the housing market threaten to curtail the expansion
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• Is monetary tightening a concern?
• The real level of short-term rates is abnormally low
• Symbolic impact of the Fed’s first rate hike
• The tightening cycle looks set to be slower than usual
• Are housing market bubbles a concern?
• No excess leverage by households
• No overvaluations
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 12 24 36
bp
months
Fed : Fed funds rate in tightening cycles
Cycle 1 (start = Feb.94)
Cycle 2 (start = June 99)
Cycle 3 (start = June 04)
Next cycle (FOMC f'cst)
(0 = month before tightening)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
% Fed funds rate in real terms (nominal rate - inflation*)
mean
* 5YMA of CPI inflation
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
years US : households' housing net worth / disposable income
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
11
US (3) A robust real economy with vulnerabilities at the financial level (markets, dollar)
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• Is a financial crisis a concern?
• Volatility shock (market tantrum)
• Market valuations (equities/bonds)
• Slowdown in the earnings cycle
• Is an external shock a concern?
• Appreciation of the dollar
• Weight of US exports: 13% of GDP
• Destination of US exports: 1) Canada ≈20%, 2) Mexico ≈15%,
3) Eurozone ≈13%... China represents ≈10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
%%
Other currencies
Yuan/HKD
EUR-YEN-GBP-CHF
*Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, Canada, UK
Share in dollar index (rhs)Contributions to dollar rise since sept. 2014 (lhs)
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % Pre-tax profits (national accounts) EPS (S&P 500)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
index dollar index (against 26 currencies)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
12
Eurozone (1) Monetary conditions and the policy mix have rarely been so accommodative
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• The euro’s depreciation has been preserved despite its summer rally
• The euro has stabiized against the leading currencies
• The ECB’s policy
• QE is legal and operational
• The ECB is maintaining an accommodative bias
• Lag of several years vs. the Fed’s cycle
• Fiscal policy
• The austerity phase is over
80
85
90
95
100
105
10 11 12 13 14 15
index EUR vs EM currencies EUR vs DM currencies
EM: emerging market; DM: developed market
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
14 15 16
bn€ CBSPP3 (covered bonds) ABSPP (ABS) PSPP (govies)
extrapolated at current pace of purchase
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP EMU: government budget balance
Maastricht threshold
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
13
Eurozone (2) The credit recovery is gaining strength and boosting internal demand
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• Reconvergence of economies within the eurozone
• Relative success of “internal devaluation” policies
• Reversal of centrifugal forces (aside from Greece’s case)
• Revival of the credit cycle
• Ongoing defragmentation of loan conditions
• Recovery in demand for credit (falling unemployment)
• Acceleration in the origination of bank loans
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y%%GDP EMU credit impulse to non-financial corporate*
EMU business investment (rhs)
* credit impulse is the change in new borrowings (as a % of GDP)
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn€ EMU : loans to the private sector (m/m flows)* y/y% (rhs)
*adjusted for sales and securitization
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bp EMU: loans' rates to non-financial corporations *
Spread Periphery-vs-Core
* credit up to 1M€, maturity<5 years
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
14
Eurozone (3) Political risk is unlikely to derail the economy
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
• Greece: confrontation, capitulation, cooperation
• Near-death experience for the economy and banks
• The third aid plan has stabilised the situation
• Uncertainty about the outcome of elections and the success of
reforms
• Other risks
• The Greek experience is discouraging Eurosceptic temptations
• Elections in Portugal: right and left are pro-UE
• Elections in Spain (where the economy has taken off again):
Podemos will not gain power, but there is uncertainty about the
formation of the next government. Unrest in Catalonia.
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn EUR Greece : deposits of private sector in MFI *
*MFI: monetary financial institutions
financial crisis
debt crisis
haircut
politicalcrisis
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev Greece: economic sentiment index*
* normalised index at 0 over 1990-2007
financial crisis
debt crisis haircut
politicalcrisis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
14 15
% Spain: opinion polls for Dec.2015 general election
Far left Podemos Center-left
Citizens Center-right Regionalists
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
15
Table of forecasts (1)
Source: Consensus Forecasts, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016
World 3.4 3.0 3.0
US 2.4 2.5 2.5 0.6 3.7 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.7
EMU 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.8
- Germany 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.4 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.0
- France 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.7 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.6
- Italy -0.4 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.2
- Spain 1.4 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6
UK 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5
Japan -0.1 0.7 1.1 4.5 -1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.7
China (y/y%) 7.4 6.6 6.0 7.0 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.7
* y/y or q/q annualised rate **10 August 2015
FORECASTS - REAL GDP GROWTH*
Consensus**Average 20162015
High Low 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Policy rate
Fed funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.35 1.21
ECB Refi 1.50 0.05 1.25 0.88 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.05
10Y rate
US T-note 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.8
German Bund 3.4 0.2 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.2
French OAT 3.7 0.4 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.5
Forex
EUR/USD 1.45 1.08 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.12 1.14
USD/JPY 124 77 80 80 98 106 121 120
USD/RMB 6.67 6.05 6.47 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.28 6.39
*monthly average
6.40
Target
3M 12M
-
-
2.3
0.8
0.50
120
3.3
1.5
-
1.12
119
6.37
2.1
0.7
0.25
1.15
FORECASTS - RATES & FX
0.05
Actual
07/09/2015
Last 5 years* Average
0.05
1.25
0.05
1.0 1.1 1.8
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
16
Table of forecasts (2)
Source: Oddo Securities.
2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States
Real GDP 2.4 2.5 2.5 0.6 3.7 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Private Consumption 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.7 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Nonresidential Investment 6.2 3.7 5.1 1.6 3.2 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Residential Investment 1.8 8.3 6.5 10.1 7.8 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 2.6 2.9 2.8 1.7 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.2 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -1.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Inflation (CPI, % yoy) 1.6 0.2 1.8 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.2
Unemployment rate (%) 6.2 5.3 4.5 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2
Euro area
Real GDP 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Private Consumption 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Investment 1.3 2.2 3.4 5.6 -1.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8
Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 0.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Inventories (contribution, %pt) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Exports (contribution, %pt) 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.7 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.4 0.1 1.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.8
Unemployment rate (%) 11.6 11.0 10.2 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9
France
Real GDP 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.7 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Private Consumption 0.7 1.9 1.7 3.7 0.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Investment -1.2 -0.6 1.6 0.2 -1.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.6 0.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.5 0.0 0.3 -1.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.6 0.2 1.5 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.9
Unemployment rate (%) 9.9 10.0 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7
* y/y or q/q annualised rate
FORECASTS - KEY MACRO DATA for US, EMU, & France *
Average 20162015
Strictement confidentiel
Recently published Oddo Economic Research Visit our new Economic Research website: https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy
Eco notes
Black box and fixed points (August 24, 2015)
The he euro is dead. Long live the euro 2.0! (July 9, 2015)
The bright side of rising bond yields (June 12, 2015)
Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)
Give credit to the European recovery (April 17, 2015)
Buy Europe (March 13, 2015)
Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)
Black gold – Green light for growth – Red alert on inflation (Jan.15, 2015)
Reflation: passing the baton (September 11, 2014)
Manufacturing in a low pressure world (June 5, 2014)
A low pressure economy (May 14, 2014)
What could trigger a recession in the US in the coming year? (Sept. 3, 2015)
Can the euro’s recent appreciation incite the ECB to action? (Sept. 1st, 2015)
China: a closer look at some received ideas (August 27, 2015)
Impact of euro depreciation on tourism in Europe (July 24, 2015)
Buy Europe (part two) (July 21, 2015)
Convergence in Europe: we can't see the woods for the Greek tree (July 8, 2015)
Bitter victory for the Greek government (July 6, 2015)
In reality, Grexit has already started (June 29, 2015)
Which speedometer should we use to measure US growth? (June 24, 2015)
Athens, Venezuela? (June 19, 2015)
For whom is the ECB conducting its zero interest-rate policy? (June 18, 2015)
Eurozone: time to ramp up equipment investment (June 4, 2015)
The ECB’s QE: the questions in debate (May 28, 2015)
European growth: traction and extension (May 13, 2015)
Greek default: the contagion channels are blocked (April 22, 2015)
A brief history of the Fed’s “mistakes” (April 14, 2015)
Economy & Rates (monthly)
Economic Report
Economic calendar (weekly)
17
Focus France (twice a month)
France: overcoming the pull of inertia (August 28, 2015)
Business climate in France back to normal (July 22, 2015)
What reflection of the Greek crisis in France? (July 1st, 2015)
French economy in the face of interest-rate risk (June 16, 2015)
French growth desperately lacking employment (June 2, 2015)
Demography: one of France’s economic strengths (May 19, 2015)
Focus US (weekly)
Fed’s rate hike: technical considerations (September 4, 2015)
US: market bears and Fed doves (August 28, 2015)
Fed: beyond a reasonable doubt (August 21, 2015)
US: a golden era for employees? (July 31, 2015)
Duration of the US business cycle and monetary policy (July 24, 2015)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
18
Statistical and chart Appendix
List of appendices
1. Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)
2. Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries
3. Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China
4. Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)
5. Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)
6. Industrial production: G7 + emerging countries (selection)
7. Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China
8. Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)
9. Unemployment rates: G7 countries
10. Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries
11. Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)
12. Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil
13. Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)
14. Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)
15. Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)
16. Currency reserves: world and principal holders
17. Current account balances: G7 countries + China
18. Current account balances: emerging countries (selection)
19. Exchange rates against the EUR or USD: major currencies
20. Government debt (as % of GDP): European countries (selection)
21. Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)
22. Bank financing by the Eurosystem
23. Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)
24. 10-year government bond yield
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
19
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 1 Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)
GDP 2014
bn $ current $ PPP $
% % Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
World * 77362 100.0 100.0 0.14 -1.53 -1.26 1.50 1.45 1.41 1.54 1.54 1.14 1.27 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.90 0.92 0.70 0.75 0.62 0.78 0.97 1.06 0.84 0.69 0.86 1.13 0.58 0.66 0.63Developed countries 42094 54.4 37.6 -0.56 -2.08 -2.17 0.04 0.30 0.86 0.59 0.97 0.67 0.44 -0.04 0.30 0.53 0.47 0.40 0.06 0.05 -0.11 0.32 0.40 0.53 0.55 0.20 0.39 0.57 0.47 0.35 0.50
Asia excl.Japan 16559 21.4 30.9 1.25 0.05 0.81 2.54 2.48 2.16 2.78 2.18 1.93 2.17 2.16 1.97 1.79 1.26 1.67 1.62 1.66 1.60 1.36 1.60 1.89 1.61 1.42 1.61 1.72 1.43 1.34 1.40
US 17419 22.5 16.1 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.9
EMU 13168 17.0 11.8 -0.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3- Germany 3860 5.0 3.4 -0.4 -2.0 -4.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4
- France 2847 3.7 2.4 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0
- Italy 2148 2.8 2.0 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3
Japan 4616 6.0 4.4 -1.1 -3.3 -4.0 1.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.9 -0.7 2.7 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -2.0 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.3
UK 2945 3.8 2.4 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7
Switzerland 712 0.9 0.4 0.4 -1.8 -1.5 -0.2 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 -0.2 0.2
Canada 1789 2.3 1.5 0.7 -1.1 -2.2 -0.9 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.2 -0.1
Australia 1444 1.9 1.0 0.7 -0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.2
China 10380 13.4 16.3 1.5 0.9 1.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.7
India ** 2050 2.6 6.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.8
Korea 1417 1.8 1.6 0.9 -3.3 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.4 2.2 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3
Indonesia ** 889 1.1 2.5 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.2
Taiwan 530 0.7 1.0 -3.6 -5.1 -1.2 3.6 2.6 4.9 1.9 2.7 0.8 0.8 2.7 0.5 -0.5 -1.3 2.5 -0.2 1.7 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.6 -1.7
Thailand 374 0.5 0.9 0.2 -2.6 -3.0 2.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 -0.4 0.6 0.4 2.2 -1.4 1.6 -6.3 9.6 1.8 0.8 2.4 0.2 -0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4
Malaysia ** 327 0.4 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.7 2.6 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 -0.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0
Philippines 285 0.4 0.6 2.2 0.0 -2.3 1.3 1.7 1.3 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.7 0.5 2.5 0.4 1.8
Singapore 308 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -3.6 -2.3 4.4 4.4 -0.5 8.2 5.6 -2.3 2.8 3.1 -0.1 1.6 0.0 2.3 0.6 -1.3 1.9 1.2 2.2 0.1 1.8 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 -1.0
Brazil 2353 3.0 3.0 1.8 -3.9 -1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.0 -0.2 0.7 -1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.9
Chile 258 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -1.7 -1.2 0.5 1.7 1.5 -1.3 4.5 2.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.7 1.8 0.7 1.9 1.3 -0.1 1.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0
Mexico 1283 1.7 2.0 -0.1 -1.9 -3.9 -1.0 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 -1.2 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5
Russia ** 1857 2.4 3.3 -0.9 -4.8 -5.1 -0.4 1.5 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.3 -0.7 1.2 0.1 -0.3 -3.0 -1.4 e
Poland 547 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.4 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9
Turkey 806 1.0 1.4 -0.5 -6.1 -5.6 5.1 4.1 1.3 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.6 2.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 -0.3 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.5 e
South Africa 350 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 -0.3
* as usual, w orld w eighting is based on real GDP at PPP exchange rate (IMF data)
** for those countries, seasonaly-adjusted f igures by Oddo Securities
2013 2014 2015
Weights 2014 Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
20
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 2 Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries
Pre-crisis Crisis Post-crisis
1999-2007 Q3 08-Q2 09 2010 to date Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
US
Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.0 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.9
- Inventories 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
- Net exports -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.1
- Final demand 0.8 -1.1 0.5 -0.7 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.8
Japan
Real GDP qoq % 0.3 -1.7 0.3 -1.1 -3.3 -4.0 1.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.9 -0.7 2.7 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -2.0 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.3
- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 1.3 -1.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.5 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.2
- Net exports 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -1.7 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -1.2 1.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.4
- Final demand 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 -0.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.6 -3.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 -0.1
Germany
Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.7 0.5 -0.4 -2.0 -4.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4
- Inventories 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 1.1 -0.6 1.6 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.4
- Net exports 0.2 -0.8 0.1 -1.0 -1.4 -2.5 1.7 0.0 1.3 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.8
- Final demand 0.2 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.2 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.3 -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0
France
Real GDP qoq % 0.5 -0.9 0.2 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0
- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.2 1.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4
- Net exports -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.7 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3
- Final demand 0.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.1
Italy
Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.8 -0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3
- Inventories 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.5 0.4
- Net exports 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.2
- Final demand 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
EMU
Real GDP qoq % 0.6 -1.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3
- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
- Net exports 0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3
- Final demand 0.5 -0.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1
UK
Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.5 0.5 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7
- Inventories 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 -1.2 -2.3 3.9 -1.3 0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.7 0.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 1.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1
- Net exports -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -1.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.2 -1.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.7 0.8 -0.6 1.0
- Final demand 0.9 -1.8 0.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.3 -4.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.3 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 -0.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.8
* do not sum up exactly due to roundings
2015
Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %) + contributions to growth *
201420092008 20132010 2011 2012
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
21
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 3 Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China
-10
-5
0
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% US : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% EMU : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
0
5
10
15
20
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% China : real GDP growth
q/q % (annual rate)
y/y%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Japan : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.) y/y%
Fukushima
VAT shock
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Germany : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% France : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% UK : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
Olympics
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Canada : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%-15
-10
-5
0
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Italy : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
22
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 4 Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)
0
5
10
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% India : real GDP growth
y/y%
new methodology from 2012
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% South Korea : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Indonesia : real GDP growth
q/q % (annual rate)
y/y%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Taiwan : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Philippines : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Singapore : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Australia : real GDP growth
q/q % (annualised rate)
y/y%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Malaysia : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Thailand : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%floods (-23%)
+45%
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
23
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 5 Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Brazil: real GDP growth
q/q % (annual rate)
y/y%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Turkey : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Mexico : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Russia : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Poland : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.) y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% South Africa : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.) y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Switzerland: real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Chile: real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Hungary : real GDP growth
q/q % (a.r.)
y/y%
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
24
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 6 Industrial production (index): selected countries
80
90
100
110
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07US : industrial production index
80
90
100
110
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07EMU : industrial production index
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07China : industrial production index
60
70
80
90
100
110
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07Japan : industrial production index
80
90
100
110
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07Canada : industrial production index
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07South Korea : industrial production index
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07Taiwan : industrial production index
80
90
100
110
120
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07Brazil : industrial production index
80
90
100
110
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
100=Jan.07Mexico : industrial production index
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
25
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 7 Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% EMU : CPI inflation
y/y%
target ECB
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% China : CPI inflation
y/y%
official target
-4
-2
0
2
4
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Japan : CPI inflation
y/y% target BoJ
VAT rate hike
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Germany : CPI inflation
y/y%
target ECB
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% France : CPI inflation
y/y%
target ECB
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% UK : CPI inflation
y/y%
target BoE
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Canada : CPI inflation
y/y%
target BoC
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% US : CPI inflation
y/y%
target Fed
-2
0
2
4
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Italy & Spain : CPI inflation
Italy
Spain
target ECB
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
26
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 8 Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)
0
5
10
15
20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% India : CPI inflation
y/y%
0
2
4
6
8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% South Korea : CPI inflation
y/y%
target BoK
0
5
10
15
20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Indonesia : CPI inflation
y/y%
-5
0
5
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Taiwan : CPI inflation
y/y%
-5
0
5
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Thailand : CPI inflation
y/y%
0
5
10
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Turkey : CPI inflation
y/y%
2
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Brazil : CPI inflation
y/y%
target BCdoB
0
2
4
6
8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Mexico : CPI inflation
y/y%
0
4
8
12
16
20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Russia : CPI inflation
y/y%
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
27
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 9 Unemployment rates: G7 countries
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% US : unemployment rate
"threshold " for ending ZIRP
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Japan : unemployment rate
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% EMU : unemployment rate (harmonised)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Germany : unemployment rate (harmonised)
7
8
9
10
11
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% France : unemployment rate (harmonised)
6
8
10
12
14
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Italy : unemployment rate (harmonised)
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% UK : unemployment rate (harmonised) *
* last 2 points are estimated
based on alternative job data
"threshold " for ending ZIRP
5
6
7
8
9
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Canada : unemployment rate
5
10
15
20
25
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Spain : unemployment rate (harmonised)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
28
Source : Markit, Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 10 Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points US ISM index
manufacturing
non manuf.
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points EMU : PMI index
manufacturing
services35
40
45
50
55
60
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points China : PMI index (manufacturing)
HSBC/Caixin index
NBS index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points Japan : PMI index
manufacturing
services
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points Germany : PMI index
manufacturing
services
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points France : PMI index
manufacturing
services
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points UK : PMI index
manufacturing
services
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points other EMU : PMI index
Italy (composite)
Spain (composite)30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
points other BRIC : PMI index
Brazil (composite)
India (composite)
Russia (composite)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
29
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 11 Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. US: consumer confidence
Univ.of Michigan
Conference Board
0= 1990-2007 avg
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. EMU: consumer confidence
0= 1990-2007 avg
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. Japan: consumer confidence
0= 1990-2007 avg
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. UK: consumer confidence
0= 1990-2007 avg
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. Germany: consumer confidence
0= 1990-2007 avg-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. France: consumer confidence
0= 1990-2007 avg
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. Italy: consumer confidence
0= 1990-2007 avg
sample change
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. Spain & Portugal: consumer confidence
Spain
Portugal
0= 1990-2007 avg
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
st.dev. Netherlands & Belgium: consumer confidence
Netherlands Belgium
0= 1990-2007 avg
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
30
Source : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 12 Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s US: monthly car sales *
*light trucks included
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s China: monthly car sales
100
200
300
400
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s Japan: monthly car sales
200
250
300
350
400
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s Germany: monthly car sales
100
150
200
250
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s France: monthly car sales
100
150
200
250
300
350
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s Brazil: monthly car sales
0
50
100
150
200
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s Spain: monthly car sales
100
150
200
250
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s UK: monthly car sales
50
100
150
200
250
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
'000s Italy: monthly car sales
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
31
Source : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 13 Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% World: weighted-average policy rate*
*current GDP weighted
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Japan: O/N rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% UK: base rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Canada: O/N rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Switzerland: policy rate*
*middle of the target rangefor the 3M LIBOR rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Sweden & Norway: policy rates
Sweden
Norway
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Australia & New Zealand: policy rates
Australia
New Zealand
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% EMU: ECB refi rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% US: Fed funds rate
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
32
Source : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 14 Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)
4
5
6
7
8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% China: 1-year lending rate
5
7
9
11
13
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Brazil: SELIC rate
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Russia: policy rate
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% India & Indonesia: policy rates
India
Indonesia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% South Korea: policy rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Poland & Hungary: policy rates
Poland
Hungary
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Taiwan: policy rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Chile: policy rate
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Mexico: policy rate
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
33
Source : Thomson Reuters, Fed, ECB, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 15 Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP G6: total assets of central banks*
*US, EMU, Japan, UK, Canada, Switzerland
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn $ Fed: total assets
QE programmes other
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Fed: total assets
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP ECB: total assets
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Bank of England: total assets
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Swiss National Bank: total assets
CHF/EUR peg
0
2
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Bank of Canada: total assets
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Bank of Japan: total assets
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn € ECB: total assets
QE programmes other
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
34
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 16 Currency reserves (in US$): world and principal holders
6000
8000
10000
12000
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ World: FX reserve assets
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ China: FX reserve assets
800
1000
1200
1400
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ Japan: FX reserve assets
700
900
1100
1300
1500
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ OPEC: FX reserve assets
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ Asia ex-China/Japan: FX reserve assets
300
400
500
600
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ Russia: FX reserve assets
RUB free float
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ Latin America: FX reserves assets
200
250
300
350
400
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ EMU countries: FX reserve assets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bn$ Switzerland: FX reserve assets
SNB targets CHF
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
35
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 17 Current account balances (% of GDP): G7 countries + China
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP US : C/A balance
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP EMU*: C/A balance
* sum of EMU countries
-2
0
2
4
6
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Japan : C/A balance
4
5
6
7
8
9
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Germany: C/A balance
-4
-2
0
2
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP France: C/A balance
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP UK : C/A balance
-4
-2
0
2
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Canada: C/A balance
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Italy/Spain : C/A balance
Italy
Spain
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP China : trade balance & C/A balance
trade balance
C/A balance
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
36
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 18 Current account balances (% of GDP): emerging countries (selection)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP India : C/A balance
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Brazil : C/A balance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Russia : C/A balance
-4
-2
0
2
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Indonesia : C/A balance
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Mexico : C/A balance
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Turkey : C/A balance
6
8
10
12
14
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP Taiwan : C/A balance
-2
0
2
4
6
8
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP South Korea : C/A balance
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%GDP South Africa : C/A balance
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
37
Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 19 Exchange rates vs. EUR or USD: major currencies
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1€ = … US$
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1£ = … US$
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1US$ = … JPY
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1US$ = … RMB (renminbi)
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1€ = … CHF
CHF/EUR peg
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1US$ = … KRW (won)
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1US$ = … BRL (real)
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1US$ = … AUD & CAD
AUD
CAD
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1US$ = … RUB (Russian ruble)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
38
Source : Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 20 Government debt (as a % of GDP) : European countries (selection)
60
65
70
75
80
85
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Germany: government debt
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP France: government debt
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Italy: government debt
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Spain: government debt
80
90
100
110
120
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Belgium: government debt
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Greece: government debt
haircut
2030405060708090
100110120130
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Ireland: government debt
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP Portugal: government debt
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% GDP EMU: government debt
budget balance (rhs)
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
39
Source : Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 21 Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale France rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IGS&P cut
Moody's cut
Fitch cut
S&P cut Fitch cut
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Germany rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk status
investment grade
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Belgium rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IG
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Italy rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IG
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Spain rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IG
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Ireland rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IG
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Portugal rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IG
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale Greece rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1junk status
investment grade
08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15
scale UK rating (avg S&P, Moody's, Fitch)
AAA / Aaa
BB+ / Ba1
junk
IG Moody's cut
Fitchcut
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
40
[Date]
40
Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 22 Bank financing by the Eurosystem
0
100
200
300
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Germany: ECB refinancing
LTRO
MRO
0
25
50
75
100
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Netherlands: ECB refinancing
MRO + LTRO
0
50
100
150
200
250
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR France: ECB refinancing
LTRO
MRO
MRO+LTRO0
100
200
300
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Italy: ECB refinancing
LTRO
MRO
0
100
200
300
400
500
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Spain: ECB refinancing
LTRO
MRO
0
25
50
75
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Portugal: ECB refinancing
LTRO
MRO
0
50
100
150
200
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Ireland: ECB/NCB refinancing
ELA
LTRO
MRO
0
5
10
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Finland: ECB refinancing
LTRO
MRO
0
50
100
150
200
09 10 11 12 13 14 15
bnEUR Greece: ECB /NCB refinancing
ELA
LTRO
MRO
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
41
[Date]
41
Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.
Appendix 23 Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)
-3
0
3
6
9
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Germany: loans to the private sector
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% France: loans to the private sector
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Italy: loans to the private sector
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Spain: loans to the private sector
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Ireland: loans to the private sector
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Netherlands: loans to the private sector
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Finland: loans to the private sector
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Greece: loans to the private sector
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y% Portugal: loans to the private sector
Strictement confidentiel
[Date]
42
Appendix 24 10-year government bond yield
Source : Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% US: 10Y government bond yield
2000-2009
2010-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Japan: 10Y government bond yield
2000-2009
2010-2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Portugal/Ireland: 10Y government bond yield
Ireland
Portugal
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Germany: 10Y government bond yield
2000-2009
2010-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% UK: 10Y government bond yield
2000-2009
2010-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% France: 10Y government bond yield
2000-2009
2010-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Netherlands: 10Y government bond yield
2000-2009
2010-2012
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Spain: 10Y government bond yield
2000-09
2010 -2012
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Italy: 10Y government bond yield
2000-09
2010 -2012