20,000,000
2,000,000
200,000
20,000
2,000
200
20
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and recoveriesTotal confirmed cases and recoveries
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Confirmed
recoveries
Confirmed
cases
# of people (log scale)
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases for selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
CAN
KOR
FRADEU
BELUSA
Days since 1 case per million
ESP# of people (log scale)
IND
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
3. Europe: COVID-19 deaths versus South KoreaDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
SWE
KOR
Days since 1 death per million
GBR
DEU
BEL
FRA
ESP# of people (log scale)
DNK
NOR
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
4. North America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
CAN
KOR
USA
ESP
BEL
Days since 1 death per million
# of people (log scale)
5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
World
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Canada
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Italy
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
United States
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Germany
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Belgium
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Denmark
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
South Africa
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
India
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Russia
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
South Korea
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Brazil
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
5,000
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
6. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
SWE
QC
Days since 1 case per million
CAN
AB
BEL
BC
ON
# of people (log scale)
USAESP
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
7. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
SWE
QC
Days since 1 death per million
CAN
AB
BEL
BC
ON
# of people (log scale)
USA
ESP
5,000
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
8. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)
MEX
Days since 1 case per million
CAN
BRA
BELPER# of people (log scale)
CHL
ESP
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
9. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)
MEX
Days since 1 death per million
CANBRA
BEL
PER
# of people (log scale)
CHL
ESP
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
China 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03 152.2
Israel 19.9 40.8 4.2 12.9 23.6 83.3
South Africa 0.7 2.4 14.7 37.6 60.2 60.2
Sweden 14.1 55.0 52.5 81.5 109.6 34.5
Switzerland 61.8 50.0 4.8 2.2 2.9 33.1
Japan 0.4 3.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 32.1
Turkey 5.2 42.2 16.7 12.8 16.4 28.6
India 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.6 8.3 26.1
Mexico 0.3 4.7 18.0 28.8 34.2 18.6
Brazil 0.9 12.8 64.9 111.5 123.0 10.3
South Korea 4.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 9.3
United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 65.9 70.9 7.6
Portugal 23.5 57.5 23.6 28.1 29.0 3.4
Norway 27.5 19.0 4.2 2.7 2.6 -4.6
Denmark 15.9 36.2 14.0 7.3 6.9 -5.5
Netherlands 23.7 52.0 13.4 9.9 9.3 -6.1
Austria 36.4 19.5 4.6 3.4 3.1 -6.8
Germany 27.6 36.3 7.9 4.3 3.5 -17.8
Spain 66.2 83.8 18.0 9.3 7.3 -20.7
Italy 55.8 54.9 14.7 6.2 4.9 -21.1
United Kingdom 11.9 71.7 49.2 26.8 19.2 -28.5
France 25.7 58.0 9.9 5.9 4.2 -29.5
Belgium 35.6 102.8 27.4 13.1 8.3 -36.6
Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 18.8 10.5 -44.3
Finland 8.2 21.5 10.9 4.3 2.0 -54.3
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days compared to
28 days (% variation)
10. World, Daily new cases per million population
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
Saskatchewan 5.0 5.8 7.0 2.2 4.2 91.8
Manitoba 2.4 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 50.0
Alberta 5.0 35.2 12.1 6.4 8.2 27.8
British Columbia 6.3 7.2 2.9 2.15 2.66 23.4
New Brunswick 2.9 2.1 0.6 2.0 2.4 18.2
Ontario 4.3 35.0 26.3 22.3 14.0 -37.0
Quebec 15.7 91.3 88.8 39.7 15.4 -61.1
Newfoundland 9.4 6.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -100.0
Nova Scotia 4.9 27.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 -100.0
Prince Edward Island 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 18.8 10.5 -44.3
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days compared to
28 days (% variation)
11. Canada, Daily new cases per million population
¸
12. United States, Daily new cases per million population, selected cities
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
Miami-Dade 25.2 122.0 70.5 95.2 157.5 65.5
Los Angeles 9.7 67.1 102.1 129.4 144.4 11.6
King County (Seattle) 33.3 57.4 27.0 20.3 22.6 11.0
San Francisco 14.5 41.7 39.8 32.3 28.0 -13.2
New York City 71.5 213.1 59.4 30.1 20.7 -31.1
Philadelphia 26.8 276.8 166.2 96.9 63.5 -34.5
Hennepin County (Minneapolis) 5.2 40.4 169.6 129.1 83.6 -35.2
Cook County (Chicago) 28.1 207.2 259.4 136.2 63.0 -53.7
Houston 0.0 7.3 153.1 104.2 -31.1 -129.9
United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 65.9 70.9 7.6
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days compared to 28
days (% variation)
13. United States, Daily new cases per million population
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysHawaii 4.6 9.7 0.8 2.5 6.0 133.7Oregon 5.3 14.4 13.3 20.5 39.2 91.6Montana 6.0 8.0 1.9 5.1 9.2 81.6Florida 10.1 41.8 33.5 58.6 102.1 74.2Arizona 5.7 29.2 54.4 127.7 217.6 70.3South Carolina 6.8 32.4 36.1 78.9 133.1 68.6Oklahoma 4.6 25.7 22.8 30.4 51.3 68.6Wyoming 6.1 25.9 19.2 20.2 33.1 63.9Arkansas 5.6 30.5 42.5 101.8 153.3 50.6Alabama 6.5 41.5 71.5 103.9 155.1 49.3Texas 4.2 28.6 40.0 56.7 83.4 47.1Nevada 11.7 42.6 37.4 51.8 75.9 46.5Alaska 0.8 1.7 0.7 14.4 20.1 40.1Louisiana 36.3 163.1 82.5 102.3 141.5 38.3Idaho 9.3 27.4 15.4 22.5 29.7 32.1Utah 8.8 39.5 51.6 85.0 110.5 29.9North Carolina 4.7 29.3 55.4 90.8 115.2 26.9Washington 23.0 38.9 31.2 36.6 45.6 24.4Tennessee 11.3 40.7 55.8 71.7 87.5 22.1California 6.7 35.4 50.5 69.4 83.5 20.2Georgia 11.9 70.0 63.1 68.0 81.4 19.6Kansas 4.8 45.5 58.5 38.5 43.8 14.0Mississippi 10.2 65.8 94.4 104.1 103.6 -0.5Missouri 6.5 32.7 26.1 31.7 30.7 -3.1South Dakota 3.9 88.2 92.8 75.6 72.0 -4.8Kentucky 4.5 30.4 36.1 38.6 35.6 -7.9Indiana 10.3 77.5 79.9 62.3 56.8 -8.8West Virginia 2.9 17.9 15.9 16.1 14.5 -10.0Ohio 6.1 45.1 48.3 39.7 34.8 -12.3New Mexico 4.8 49.2 65.8 63.8 55.5 -13.0North Dakota 5.2 41.3 63.9 50.2 42.2 -16.0Iowa 5.1 70.2 126.9 100.1 83.0 -17.0Maine 7.3 19.6 29.5 27.0 21.1 -21.7Nebraska 2.9 70.8 163.8 112.8 86.6 -23.2Vermont 15.1 30.6 5.9 10.6 8.0 -24.7Wisconsin 7.8 31.2 64.0 61.6 45.7 -25.8Pennsylviana 12.5 112.0 70.9 45.1 33.2 -26.4Minnesota 3.5 26.6 112.7 86.3 61.5 -28.8Delaware 10.6 151.1 157.8 82.5 56.9 -31.0Connecticut 16.6 71.3 62.1 42.5 29.1 -31.7Maryland 8.9 110.7 165.6 122.0 82.8 -32.1Colorado 28.3 229.7 131.2 64.2 43.4 -32.5New Hampshire 8.5 43.9 59.4 41.2 27.1 -34.2New York 125.7 391.6 110.1 56.5 36.6 -35.2Rhode Island 14.9 255.9 192.1 96.3 61.6 -36.0Virginia 5.3 60.0 108.7 99.1 63.3 -36.1Michigan 24.6 107.6 43.5 32.8 18.8 -42.7New Jersey 67.9 375.1 151.8 68.1 37.9 -44.3Massachusetts 30.9 268.7 162.6 75.1 41.3 -45.0Illinois 15.2 123.3 171.2 95.2 49.0 -48.5United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 65.9 70.9 7.6
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days compared to
28 days (% variation)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
14. New York City: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: June 7 to 13)
Weekly deaths per 100 000 population
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented
During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)
COVID-19
1918 pandemic
# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020
Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in
1918, line represent start of measures in 2020
32.3
46.9
16.1
4.7
23.1
64.0
8.5
4.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths
15. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths
NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)
18.6
39.7
25.8
16.0
0.022.5
16.8
80.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths
Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of June 6)
% %
AgeAge
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Montreal Paris Madrid Rome Stockholm Berlin Miami New York Tokyo
Worst week Current
16. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019, 7 day moving average (last obs.: June 8-14)
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)
Percentage points
-110
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
17. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: June 15)
y/y change
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)
CAN
USA
GBR
DEU
Global
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
18. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
% change from baseline*
SWE
USA
CANITA
GBR
FRA
ESP
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
19. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
% change from baseline*
CA
AB
QCBC
ON
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index
Stdev
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Lehman bankruptcy
and AIG bailout
U.S. government
credit downgrade
and Eurozone
crisis
Fear of Chinese
recession and
petrol supply
shock
COVID-19
outbreak and
OPEC/Russia oil
price war
NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada
Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the
S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.
Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,
minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian
government bond yield.
S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.
USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.
BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Variables Estimation
.
.