Delphi
AED 615
Q. Molina
Objectives
• Become familiar with the social science research method known as Delphi.
Prerequisite Tools
• There are no Prerequisite tools required for the Delphi Research Method
Purpose
• Delphi is a group process for eliciting, collating, and generally directing informed (expert) judgment towards a consensus on a particular topic.
Uses
• Establishing goals and priorities• Identifying the dimensions and the
attributes of a problem• Providing forecasts• Clarifying positions and delineating
differences between group members• Gathering information from a group whose
members do not meet fact-to-face and wish to retain their anonymity
Description
• Delphi is a method in which individuals focus on and debate issues anonymously.
• Typically conducted by mail or e-mail utilizing several rounds of questionnaires.
• Results of each round are collected, collated and analyzed by a design team.
• Questions for the next round are based on the analysis process.
• Generally provides convergence of opinions, but may provide the basis for disagreement.
Advantages within Delphi
• Anonymity
• More accurate representation of an individual’s feelings
• No group meetings are required.
• A large heterogeneous group may participate on an equal basis.
• Allows participants to be geographically scattered.
Limitations within Delphi
• Time may eliminate Delphi as a possibility.
• Is not useful for individuals who have difficulties reading or writing.
• High participant interest and commitment is assumed or the quantity and quality of responses will decrease with each round.
• By design Delphi does not allow for instant communication or intellectual stimulation.
Required Resources
• Level of Effort – design team requirements
• Skill Level – questionnaire written free of bias.
• Time Required – six weeks to complete 4 rounds.
Inputs
• Respondents should:– Have special experience or knowledge to share.– Represent a cross-section of opinions.– Be motivated to participate.
• Questionnaire should:– Be as short as possible– Be adapted to the language most familiar to the
participants area of expertise– Elicit useful responses at the level of abstraction
required
Tool Output
• Is generally a convergence of opinion.
• Frequency distribution
• Ranking of responses to a particular question.
Schedule for Delphi
Delbecq, et al. (1975)
The Recipe • Develop the basis for a Delphi• Design Questionnaire #1• Solicit responses for questionnaire #1• Analyze questionnaire #1• Design questionnaire #2• Solicit responses for questionnaire #2• Analyze questionnaire #2• Design questionnaire #3• Solicit responses for questionnaire #3• Analyze questionnaire #3• Design questionnaire #4• Solicit responses for questionnaire #4• Analyze questionnaire #4• Closure
Design Team Size
• Large = 12 or more people.
• Medium = 2 – 12 people.
• Individual
Audience Size
• Large = 30 or more people.
• Medium = 10 to 30 people.
• Small = Under 10 people.
Theory
• Arguments have been made to support the claim that the Delphi method is superior to conventional uses of groups in problem solving or forecasting. (Gordon and Helmer 1964)
Journal Article
• Journal of Agricultural Education Article Utilizing the Delphi Method
Bibliography
Dalkey, N. “An Experimental Study of Group Opinion.” Futures 1 (June 1969): 282-288.
Delbecq, Andre; van de Ven, Andrew; and Gustafson, David. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi. Chicago, Ill.: Scott Foresman, 1975
Gordon, Theodore J., and Helmer, Olaf. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. Rand Paper P-2982. Santa Monica, CA.: Rand Corporation, September 1964
http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/wcmn203.nsf/LinkView/D7B9E063A2B4FFAFCA25707E00248822EBB2EB2F9035229BCA257091000BF7A6
A Little Short of 25 – 30 Minutes