Crude Oil Export Directions from Kazakhstan
Kairgeldy Kabyldin
Deputy General Director
Caspian Pipeline Consortium
2
TransneftBaltic Sea2400 km
TransneftPolish Border
2600 km
CPC Black Sea1500 km
BTC Mediterranean
2800 km
Kazakhstan-China Chinese Border 2800 kmChinese coast 6000 km
Russia/Kazakhstan border –Kazakhstan/China border
1900 km
Diversification of Export Routes from Kazakhstan
Importers of Kazakhstan Crude
3
CPC – main export route
4
CPC Blend value under pressure as volumes grow
-3.500
-3.000
-2.500
-2.000
-1.500
-1.000
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
04 Jan 2016 04 Mar 2016 04 May 2016 04 Jul 2016 04 Sep 2016 04 Nov 2016 04 Jan 2017 04 Mar 2017 04 May 2017
Differentials toNorth Sea Dated
CPC Blend URALS Med (140kt) URALS Med (80kt) Sib Light Med
5
Increase in CPC Blend shipment volumes;
Demand in Europe for CPC Blend is restricted by high mercaptan and aggressive components content;
Larger Suezmax tankers used to ship CPC have restricted number of destinations in Europe as some
European ports accept only smaller vessels;
Demand for CPC in Asia has sharply increased but not enough to support the price of CPC Blend.
Source: Argus
CPC Blend vs Urals crude price relationships
6
CPC blend is going to have a price discount relative to its actual refiningvalue in the Mediterranean market for some time to come.
China Oil Import Prices
Daf AlashankouBrent-5,83
Iranian LightBrent-2,0
NB Urals (Ust-Luga)Brent-7,3
NB CPC: Brent-6,8
Астана
Cif ШанхайIranian Light: Brent+3,67
Girassol: Brent+5,8
ESPO (Fob Козьмино)Brent+1,88
Сковородино
Angola GirassolBrent-0,2 7