CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD
Critical Need for Actions to Accelerate the Transition to a Zero Emission Future
July 25, 2019
1
~ CARB
Challenges: Air quality and climate change impacts from transportation
California GHG Emissions (2017) South Coast Air Basin NOx Emissions (2017)
High GWP5%
Recyclingand Waste
3%
All Other Transportation
7%
Industrial 21%
Electric Power 16%
Light-Duty Vehicles
29%
Mobile Sources ~50%
Residential & Commercial
10% Areawide
4% Agriculture
9%
Stationary13%
Light-Duty Vehicles
18%
Heavy-Duty Vehicles… Other Mobile
Sources 30%
Mobile Sources ~80%
CARB
California’s Key Targets N
Ox
Emis
sion
s (to
ns p
er d
ay)
NOx, South Coast, All Sources GHGs, Statewide, All Sources 600 600
500
400
300
200
100
Adopted Programs*
2023 South Coast Target
2031 South Coast Target
GH
G E
mis
sion
s (M
MTC
O2e
) 500
400
300
200
100
Adopted Programs*
1990 Level SB 32 40% Reduction
80% Reduction
Carbon Neutrality 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
*Adopted through 2017
0
3
2022 2026 2030
CARB ■ ■
r------------------------------· 100% I
I I
I I
I I
I
2034
■
2038 2042 2046 --- ZEV+PHEV Sales Fraction
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2050
~ 0
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ctl Cf)
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What Will It Take?
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Stat
ewid
e O
n R
oad
Popu
latio
nM
illion
s
ICE PHEV ZEV
PHEV
ZEV
Gasoline Vehicles
~ CARB - - -
California Light-Duty ZEV Market Growing 2018:
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Cal
iforn
ia N
ew V
ehic
le M
arke
t Sha
re
Cal
iforn
ia N
ew Z
EV a
nd P
HEV
Sal
es 7.9%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 BEV PHEV FCEV Market Share (As of June)
Sources: Auto Alliance Sales Dashboard, InsideEVs, and CA Auto Outlook 5
■
■
■
■
Light-Duty ZEV Model N
umbe
r of A
vaila
ble
Mod
els
Availability Expanding BEVx 16
14 14 FCEV PHEV 12 BEV 10
8 7
6 5
44
2 2
1
0 2
1 1
2 2 4
1
3 2 2
9
3
1 4
2
1
1
1
1
1
3
4 4
EPA Class Size 6
■
■
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~ CARB
Num
ber o
f Ava
ilabl
e M
odel
s Medium- and Heavy-Duty ZEV Model
Availability Expanding 40
36
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 5
15
8 12
5
12 12
32
4
3
1
1
2
4
5
18
9
12
6
12 14
4
FCEV
BEV
Vehicle Type
u, a, m u, Cl)
(.)
.c a, > (.) -~ -(.) a, a,
cu .c 0 -C) Cl) > ;; m :::J E :::, 0
CARB
6,000,000 -1
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000 -1
2,000,000
1,000,000
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rest of world
■ China
■ Japan
■ Canada
■ United States
Sweden
■ Netherlands
France
United Kingdom
Germany
Norway
6 Million Light-Duty ZEVs Globally Additional Heavy Duty ZEVs: 500,000 Electric Buses 100,000 Heavy Trucks
U.S.
Source: ICCT and EV-Volumes 8
CARB
Regulations Help ensure
ZEVs are produced and that fleets use
them
Incentives Help
encourage consumers and
fleets to purchase and
test ZEVs
Supporting Programs Help provide
fueling infrastructure, education, and best practices
ZEV Programs 9
~ CARB
Light-Duty Vehicle Regulations that Impact ZEVs
• Advanced Clean Cars II (2021 board item) • Requirements on automakers for post 2025 MY • ZEV Regulation • GHG Regulation • Criteria Regulation
• Clean Miles Standard (2020 board item) • Requirements on ride hailing passenger vehicle services • Minimum required electric VMT to be included
10
Innovative
Clean Transit
., -
• •
• "I
Advanced Clean
Trucks
✓
ZE Truck/Trailer ZE Forklifts
2020 '
ZE Truck Fleets,
including drayage
ZE Cargo Handling
Equipment
On-Road
Off-Road
Heavy-Duty On-Road and Off-Road Regulations that Impact ZEVs
Already considered by the Board 11
~ CARB
ZEV Policy Areas 1) ZEV Targets that Lead to a Full Transition to ZEVs
2) Making ZEVs More Financially Feasible • Increased incentive funding to provide purchase incentives with a focus on
priority populations • Pricing strategies (e.g., Feebate or road-usage program that incentivize
ZEVs)
3) Ensuring Fuel Prices Support Transportation Electrification • Accelerate efforts to design electricity rates to support transportation
electrification
12
~ CARB
ZEV Policy Areas 4) Holistically Plan and Invest in ZEV Infrastructure
• Extend alternative fuel funding programs with a focus on zero emission infrastructure
• Prioritize infrastructure investments within or near priority populations, and for high-mileage passenger and delivery services
5) Strengthen Role of Local Governments to Incentivize ZEVs • Enable local jurisdictions to implement pricing and other policies that
encourage ZEVs
13
~ CARB
ZEV Policy Areas 6) Increasing Zero Emission Miles in Fleets
• Adopt zero emission mileage requirements in all high-mileage and new mobility fleets (e.g., delivery services, car sharing)
• Establish ZEV and/or eVMT targets for government fleets
7) Expand ZEV Outreach and Education • Dedicate additional State funding for ZEV consumer and fleet outreach and
education campaigns, and training for gov’t and building officials
8) Support the ZEV Transition Through Workforce Development and Training
14
~ CARB
Role of Fleets in ZEV Expansion 1) Assess current and future fleet needs 2) Understand zero emission options, infrastructure, incentives, and policies 3) Collaborate with internal and external stakeholders 4) Plan fleet and infrastructure roll-out 5) Share your ZEV fleet experiences with others
15
~ CARB
Conclusions • The magnitude and speed of change needed to
achieve California’s goals is unprecedented. • The State has implemented many programs to
promote ZEVs, but new programs and policies will be needed.
• Even under an aggressive scenario, need for significant VMT reductions and renewable fuels.
16