CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD

Critical Need for Actions to Accelerate the Transition to a Zero Emission Future

July 25, 2019

1

~ CARB

Challenges: Air quality and climate change impacts from transportation

California GHG Emissions (2017) South Coast Air Basin NOx Emissions (2017)

High GWP5%

Recyclingand Waste

3%

All Other Transportation

7%

Industrial 21%

Electric Power 16%

Light-Duty Vehicles

29%

Mobile Sources ~50%

Residential & Commercial

10% Areawide

4% Agriculture

9%

Stationary13%

Light-Duty Vehicles

18%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles… Other Mobile

Sources 30%

Mobile Sources ~80%

CARB

California’s Key Targets N

Ox

Emis

sion

s (to

ns p

er d

ay)

NOx, South Coast, All Sources GHGs, Statewide, All Sources 600 600

500

400

300

200

100

Adopted Programs*

2023 South Coast Target

2031 South Coast Target

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (M

MTC

O2e

) 500

400

300

200

100

Adopted Programs*

1990 Level SB 32 40% Reduction

80% Reduction

Carbon Neutrality 0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

*Adopted through 2017

0

3

2022 2026 2030

CARB ■ ■

r------------------------------· 100% I

I I

I I

I I

I

2034

■

2038 2042 2046 --- ZEV+PHEV Sales Fraction

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2050

~ 0

CJ) Q)

ctl Cf)

> UJ I a.. "'O C ctl

> UJ N ctl ::J C C

<(

What Will It Take?

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Stat

ewid

e O

n R

oad

Popu

latio

nM

illion

s

ICE PHEV ZEV

PHEV

ZEV

Gasoline Vehicles

~ CARB - - -

California Light-Duty ZEV Market Growing 2018:

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Cal

iforn

ia N

ew V

ehic

le M

arke

t Sha

re

Cal

iforn

ia N

ew Z

EV a

nd P

HEV

Sal

es 7.9%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 BEV PHEV FCEV Market Share (As of June)

Sources: Auto Alliance Sales Dashboard, InsideEVs, and CA Auto Outlook 5

■

■

■

■

Light-Duty ZEV Model N

umbe

r of A

vaila

ble

Mod

els

Availability Expanding BEVx 16

14 14 FCEV PHEV 12 BEV 10

8 7

6 5

44

2 2

1

0 2

1 1

2 2 4

1

3 2 2

9

3

1 4

2

1

1

1

1

1

3

4 4

EPA Class Size 6

■

■

~~~ u.<' \'<uc;,'f. d'e9 ~~~ \'<uc;,'f. \'<uc;,'f. o\ '<>us ~e '<>us ,;,,\ ~us \'<~c;,\o'< C~'t9Jo '"~"' ~Q .>'- ~Q ~e\use sc"<'o S"<'u~ ~'(~~ ~ ~'(~

~ CARB

Num

ber o

f Ava

ilabl

e M

odel

s Medium- and Heavy-Duty ZEV Model

Availability Expanding 40

36

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 5

15

8 12

5

12 12

32

4

3

1

1

2

4

5

18

9

12

6

12 14

4

FCEV

BEV

Vehicle Type

u, a, m u, Cl)

(.)

.c a, > (.) -~ -(.) a, a,

cu .c 0 -C) Cl) > ;; m :::J E :::, 0

CARB

6,000,000 -1

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000 -1

2,000,000

1,000,000

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rest of world

■ China

■ Japan

■ Canada

■ United States

Sweden

■ Netherlands

France

United Kingdom

Germany

Norway

6 Million Light-Duty ZEVs Globally Additional Heavy Duty ZEVs: 500,000 Electric Buses 100,000 Heavy Trucks

U.S.

Source: ICCT and EV-Volumes 8

CARB

Regulations Help ensure

ZEVs are produced and that fleets use

them

Incentives Help

encourage consumers and

fleets to purchase and

test ZEVs

Supporting Programs Help provide

fueling infrastructure, education, and best practices

ZEV Programs 9

~ CARB

Light-Duty Vehicle Regulations that Impact ZEVs

• Advanced Clean Cars II (2021 board item) • Requirements on automakers for post 2025 MY • ZEV Regulation • GHG Regulation • Criteria Regulation

• Clean Miles Standard (2020 board item) • Requirements on ride hailing passenger vehicle services • Minimum required electric VMT to be included

10

Innovative

Clean Transit

., -

• •

• "I

Advanced Clean

Trucks

✓

ZE Truck/Trailer ZE Forklifts

2020 '

ZE Truck Fleets,

including drayage

ZE Cargo Handling

Equipment

On-Road

Off-Road

Heavy-Duty On-Road and Off-Road Regulations that Impact ZEVs

Already considered by the Board 11

~ CARB

ZEV Policy Areas 1) ZEV Targets that Lead to a Full Transition to ZEVs

2) Making ZEVs More Financially Feasible • Increased incentive funding to provide purchase incentives with a focus on

priority populations • Pricing strategies (e.g., Feebate or road-usage program that incentivize

ZEVs)

3) Ensuring Fuel Prices Support Transportation Electrification • Accelerate efforts to design electricity rates to support transportation

electrification

12

~ CARB

ZEV Policy Areas 4) Holistically Plan and Invest in ZEV Infrastructure

• Extend alternative fuel funding programs with a focus on zero emission infrastructure

• Prioritize infrastructure investments within or near priority populations, and for high-mileage passenger and delivery services

5) Strengthen Role of Local Governments to Incentivize ZEVs • Enable local jurisdictions to implement pricing and other policies that

encourage ZEVs

13

~ CARB

ZEV Policy Areas 6) Increasing Zero Emission Miles in Fleets

• Adopt zero emission mileage requirements in all high-mileage and new mobility fleets (e.g., delivery services, car sharing)

• Establish ZEV and/or eVMT targets for government fleets

7) Expand ZEV Outreach and Education • Dedicate additional State funding for ZEV consumer and fleet outreach and

education campaigns, and training for gov’t and building officials

8) Support the ZEV Transition Through Workforce Development and Training

14

~ CARB

Role of Fleets in ZEV Expansion 1) Assess current and future fleet needs 2) Understand zero emission options, infrastructure, incentives, and policies 3) Collaborate with internal and external stakeholders 4) Plan fleet and infrastructure roll-out 5) Share your ZEV fleet experiences with others

15

~ CARB

Conclusions • The magnitude and speed of change needed to

achieve California’s goals is unprecedented. • The State has implemented many programs to

promote ZEVs, but new programs and policies will be needed.

• Even under an aggressive scenario, need for significant VMT reductions and renewable fuels.

16