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Creating Robust, Resilient & Antifragile OrganizationsWhat does it take to be…
…“built to last”?
Presenter:David J. Anderson
Lean Kanban North America
San DiegoMay 2016
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Emotional Motivation for Change
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Nobody wants to lead the next Nokia!
From $56 to $2!
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Motivation for adoption? Kanban has agendas
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What are they afraid of?
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Taleb’s Model for Organizations
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A new way to look at organizations
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Fragile
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Resilient
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Robust
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Antifragile
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Moneyball highlights fragile, resilient & robust
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Fragile
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More Robust Lead Time
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Examples of Lead Time Distributions
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Kanban mitigates risk of fragility
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Examples of fragile entities
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the Greenland Norse were fragile
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Monopoly skischool franchises didn’t survive deregulation in the 1990s
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Squeezes
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Deadlines create squeezes
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Dealing with squeezes
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A better way to deal with squeezes
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Resilient
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Resilient organizations avoid catastrophic failure
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Impact function matter more than likelihood
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Resilient organizations avoid catastrophic failure
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Blocker Clustering helps with resilience
http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html
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Resilient organizations use classes of service
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Resilient organizations use experiments
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Resilience requires a reason to pick yourself up and try again
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Purpose or values weigh more strongly than identity with resilient organizations
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Feedback loops for tactical concerns
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Robust
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Robust organizations…
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Feedback loops for operational concerns
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Leveraging an understanding of fragility, resilience & robustness
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Volatility & Turbulence
Risk is manageable in conditions of stable volatility, i.e. where there is no/very little turbulence. Turbulence implies unmanageable risk Ergo, turbulent systems are fragile systems
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Kano Analysis, Strategy & RiskPerformance
Customer satisfaction
Investment(time, money)
linearexciter
dissatisfier
Fragile
Robust
Antifragile
Call quality as a function of radio spectrum is hard to replicate. Some radio spectrum is therefore worth a lot more than other bandwidths.
Correctly aligning marketing strategy - sell quality, signal robustness, call integrity - with decision to purchase expensive radio spectrum provides a robust differentiated position
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Entropy
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Entropy in a housing neighborhood
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Entropy in a housing neighborhood
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Entropy in a housing neighborhood
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Diversity of housing makes a robust neighborhood
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Without restriction entropy will continue
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Left unchecked a new monoculture develops
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Eventually maximum entropy occurs
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Robustness is fragile – a philosophical dilemma
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Singapore is Robust
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Antifragile
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3M – Minnesota Mutation Machine*
* Collins & Porras, Built to Last
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IBM has a long history of identity change
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John Menzies founded in 1833 as a newsagent in Edinburgh. Identity change in 1998 to distribution &
airport baggage handler
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Microsoft is robust rather than antifragile
Cooperative effort to strengthen the tribePersonal SacrificeSymbols are more importantCommon enemyRituals practiced
“Be Paranoid”
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Microsoft is robust rather than antifragile
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Identities that are looser, wider, broader umbrellas are robust and enable antifragility
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Virgin are robust and may be antifragile so long as they survive the transition from Sir Richard
Branson as their leader
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What is Virgin Group’s Identity ?
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Virgin’s brand
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Feedback loops for strategy
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The Organizational Dilemma
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Organizational Dilemma
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Kanban & Resilience, Robustness & Antifragility
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Capability
OptionalityAdaptability
Agility
Survivability
Out-maneuvered
Unfit for purpose
Kanban enables Antifragility
Antifragility
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The Kanban Method
General Practices
1. Visualize (with a kanban board 看板 )
2. Limit work-in-progress (with kanban かんばん )
3. Manage flow4. Make policies explicit5. Implement feedback loops6. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally
(using models & the scientific method)
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StrategyReview
RiskReview
Monthly
ServiceDeliveryReview
Bi-WeeklyQuarterly
KanbanMeeting
Daily
OperationsReview
Monthly
Replenishment &Commitment
Meeting
Weekly
DeliveryPlanningMeeting
Per delivery cadence
change change
change
change
change
change
change change
change
info
info
info
info
info
infoinfo
info
info
change info
Kanban Cadences
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ChangeRequest
s3
1
Prod.Defects
Maintenance
UsabilityImproveme
nt
2
1
Kanban helps with “einheit” (unity & alignment)
Teams
F
HE
C A
Engin-eeringReady
G
D
GY
PBDE
MN
2
P1
AB
Ongoing
Analysis Testing
Done VerificationAcceptance3 3Ongoing
DevelopmentDone3
Joe
Peter
Steven
Joann
David
Rhonda
Brian
Ashok
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Kanban enables resilience, robustness & antifragility
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Thank you!
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About
David Anderson is an innovator in management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods…He has 30+ years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.David defined Enterprise Services Planning and originated Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.David is Chairman & CEO of Lean Kanban Inc., a business operating globally, dedicated to providing quality training & events to bring Kanban and Enterprise Services Planning to businesses who employ those who must “think for a living.”
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This presentation was inspired by the work of Nassim Taleb on Fragility, Resilience, Robustness & Antifragility in Risk Management and by his 5-day Real World Risk class in New York City, February 2016. None of the content of this talk is taken directly from Taleb nor is it meant to represent (or misrepresent) his work in shape or fashion.
Cover images courtesy of John Menzies PLC, the Scotsman newspaper and the BBC.
Lead time distribution courtesy Andreas Bartel
Volatility & Turbulence data courtesy of Digite, Raymond Keating / CME Group, Andreas Bartel
Acknowledgements
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Appendices
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Books
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2010 – Kanban “blue book”
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2012 Lessons in Agile Management
The heavily under-rated book that underpins the Kanban Coaching Masterclass and most of the theory behind the Kanban Method
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2014 Kanban from the Inside
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Player Stats
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Buster PoseySan Francisco GiantsSalary $17.3M
Ryan HowardPhiladelphia PhilliesSalary $25M
Salvador PerezKansas City RoyalsSalary $1.85M
Average OBP 0.318Fairly Robust 0.350 – 0.400Left skewed (no upside)
Average OBP 0.277Fragile mostly 0.250 – 0.300Left skewed (many 0’fers)
Average OBP 0.280Very Robust above 0.250Right skewed (some hot days)
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