Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
Chapter 15
Trade and Policy Reform
in Latin America
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-2
Chapter Objectives
• Discuss the long-run performance of the economies of Latin America
• Examine the origins and extent of Latin America´s economic crisis of the 1980s
• Discuss the economic reforms of the late 1980s and 1990s
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-3
TABLE 15.1 Population and GDP for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2005
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-4
TABLE 15.2 Average Annual Growth in Real GDP, 1960–2000
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-5
Import Substitution Industrialization
• Reliance on import substitution (ISI) policies from the 1930s to the debt crisis of the 1980s– Raúl Prebisch of ECLA argued that Latin America
experienced declining terms of trade (TOT): (index of export prices)/(index of import prices)
– In effect, Latin America would be marked by export pessimism—each unit of exports would earn a declining unit of imports
– ISI would boost industries that produce substitutes for imported goods
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-6
Problems with Import Substitution
• Government involvement in production decisions caused a misallocation of resources
• Exchange rate overvaluation
• Policies were too biased in favor of urban areas
• Income inequalities worsened
• ISI fostered rent-seeking and corruption
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-7
Macroeconomic Instability and Economic Populism
• Latin America has experienced macroeconomic crises over the past 50 years
– Crises are often attributed to populist policies: political movements using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies without regard of inflation risks, budget deficits, and foreign exchange constraints
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-8
Three Conditions of Populism
• Deep dissatisfaction with the status quo (slow growth)
• Rejection of the traditional constraints of macro policy
• Promises to raise wages while freezing prices and restructuring the economy by expanding domestic production of imported goods
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-9
Stages of Populist Policies
• Economic stimulus through government expenditures and printing money
• Creation of bottlenecks • Increase in prices and budget deficit• Acceleration of inflation • Pervasive shortages become pervasive• Capital flight and decline in wages• Resort to IMF help
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-10
Debt Crisis of the 1980s
• Causes: Collapse of world oil prices (Mexico particularly affected) and increase in international interest rates in the early 1980s
• Longstanding political mismanagement• High rates of lending in 1974–1982
• Let’s analyze these in greater detail…
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-11
TABLE 15.4 Inflation Rates, 1982–1992
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-12
Resolving the Debt Crisis
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicolas Brady engineered the Brady Plan in 1989: Latin American countries required to reform their economies to obtain debt relief
• Capital flows began to return to Latin America
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-13
Economic Policy Reform
• In the late 1980s, Latin America launched economic policy reforms
– The region adopted a neoliberal model—favoring free markets and minimal government intervention in the economy
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-14
Three Aspects of Neoliberal Reforms
• Implementation of stabilization plans to stop inflation and control budget deficits
• Privatization of state-owned enterprises
• Protectionist trade policies were scrapped
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-15
The “Washington Consesus”
• Macroeconomic reforms:
– Avoid large budget deficits
– Spend public money on health, education, and basic services
– Cut taxes, but tax a wider range of activities and improve collection
– Make certain real interest rates are positive; limit the use of preferential rates
– Make the exchange rate competitive and credible
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-16
The “Washington Consesus” (cont.)
• Microeconomic reforms:
– Use tariffs instead of quotas, and gradually reduce them
– Encourage foreign direct investment
– Privatize state enterprises in activities where markets work
– Remove the barriers to firm entry and eliminate restrictions on competition
– Guarantee the security of property rights
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-17
TABLE 15.5 Average Tariff Rates in Latin America
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-18
Stabilization Policies to Control Inflation
• Some Latin American countries adopted the orthodox model—cutting government spending, reforming the tax system, limiting the creation of new money
• Others adopted the heterodox model—same as orthodoxy but also freezing of wages and prices
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-19
Structural Reform and Open Trade
• In the 1980s, Latin American countries began reducing both tariff and nontariff barriers (NTBs)
• Regional integration schemes were revived: Central American Common Market (CACM), the Andean Pact, Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
• New regional integration schemes were created: NAFTA, Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR)
• Individual countries, especially Chile and Mexico, started negotiating bilateral free trade agreements
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-20
TABLE 15.6 Openness Indexes, 1985 and 2004
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-21
Current Issues after the Reforms
• Neoliberalism is viewed negatively by many Latin American citizens because it has not resulted in stable economies, falling prices, or greater equality
• A second generation of reforms are underway to create more inclusionary economic systems
• A few Latin American countries, including Mexico and Chile, have become the most open and outward oriented of countries anywhere, but the results elsewhere have been disappointing.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
Chapter 15
Additional Chapter Art
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-23
TABLE 15.3 Debt Indicators at the Onset of the Debt Crisis, 1983
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-24
TABLE 15.7 Regional Trade Blocs
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-25
Latin America
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15-26
Latin America: Trade Blocs