Raimundo DuarteManager for Regulatory and Industry Affairs
Nokia do BrasilMultimedia in 221st Century - Porto Seguro, April, 6th - 2001
Mobile MultimediaEvolution from 2G to IMT-
2000
2 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Agenda
•Nokia's vision of the Mobile Information Society
•Present Situation for 2G and 3G•Mobile Services, perspectives•GSM Phenomena in LA•World Technological Division•Evolution Path to IMT-2000•Nokia Solution •Summary
3 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Nokia Vision:The Mobile Information Society
Any TimeAny Location
Any NetworkAny Device
Any ServiceAny Application
4 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
•Current Networks are 2nd Generation – 90% Digital
•Evolution of 2nd Generation – Same bands
•IMT-2000 already specified
•Licenses for 3G granted ~75 to date
Present Scenario
5 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
•GSM 800 - 900 – 1800 - 1900
•CDMA 800 - 1700 - 1900
•TDMA 800 - 1900
•AMPS 800
Standands x Frequency in 2G
6 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
•WCDMA 1900/2100
•CDMA2000 1900/2100
•Number of Licenses•73 WCDMA•2 CDMA2000
Standands x Frequency in 3G
New Frequency Bands for 3G were allocated in WRC-2000
How to use >> Under Big Discussion in ITU
7 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
SMS
E-SMS
m-commerce
m-banking
Entertainment
Current Services
Increase the ARPU – today up to 9%
8 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Mobile data and SMS info on selected operators in Europe
Operator, Country % revs SMS/sub/ Charge SMSfrom data month chat (Euro cents)
Sonera, Finland 9 23 16NetCom, Norway 9 25 1.2Telenor, Norway n/a 30 14TeleDanmark/Denmark 3 40 7OPI, Italy 4.5 18 10TIM, Italy 3 10 12*D1, Germany 6.3 32 8*BT Cellnet, UK n/a 15 18.6Vodafone, UK 6 25 11Orange, UK n/a 33 6.4-16Itineris, France <1* n/a 14*Bouygues, France <1 5 10.6Telefonica, Spain 4 13 15Telecel, Portugal 1 4 10Panafon, Greece 4.6 30 9Libertel, Netherlands 2 n/a 23*Eircell, Ireland <2 30 14
Note: *data as of JanuarySource: company data/Merill Lynch estimates, June 2000
Total Europe, Total Europe, Merill Lynch estimatesMerill Lynch estimates• % Operator revenues% Operator revenues from data: from data:
• 2000: 4%2000: 4%• 2005: 26%2005: 26%• 2010: 50%2010: 50%
• % Operator revenues % Operator revenues from non-access: from non-access:
• 2000: 2%2000: 2%• 2005: 16%2005: 16%• 2010: 33%2010: 33%
9 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
The Philippines Phenomena
Mobile Subscriber Explosion:
220 % growth in 12 months
96% of the new users chose GSM
True Winner :
1 700 000 new users in 12 months
Every subscriber sends 27 text messages every day at cost of 2 US cents per message
50 million messages / day
Daily revenue : 1 M USDDaily revenue : 1 M USD
COMMUNICATIONS, INC.
10 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
•3G will not happen overnight, but in gradual evolutionary steps
•3G is a combination of a wide range of enabling technologies
•For consumers 3G is not discontinuity, but an evolution of handset functionality
3G is an Evolution not a Revolution
3G is one more step of Mobile Internet!
11 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Today's applications will evolve to 3G
Usability of 3G applications require higher bit rates
Thursday Partly cloudy. Temperature 4..8 CFriday Rain
3G is driven by services, not technology
13 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
The Perspective of Mobile Data
14 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Data Over GSM by Technology, Western Europe
1999-2004
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f u
se
rs
UMTS (K)
EDGE (K)
GPRS (K)
HSCSD (K)
CS (K)
SMS (K)
Source: Dataquest (April 2000 estimates)
15 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Mobile Services Revenue in Western Europe — Voice versus Data, 1998-
2004
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000$
Mill
ion
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Data Revenue Voice Revenue
Source: Dataquest (April 2000 estimates)
16 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
SMS Forecast, Worldwide(no. of messages sent)
SMS in 2000 (average)
Continental Europe12 billion
Asia5 billion
Eastern Europe1 billion
South America1 billion
North America0.5 billion
Middle East0.25 billion
• Totally 20 billion SMS per month
• GSM Association estimates 10 billion
SMS on GSM by Dec. 2000
Source: Mobile Lifestreams, June 2000
SMS Forecast 2000-2005 (monthly)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Bil
lio
n
18 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Why this will happen?
19 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Metcalfe’s Law
More manufactures and R&D produce greater range, drives capability up and unit price down
Large range, capability and low price attract more usersMore users create large markets
Large markets attract more manufactures and R&D
Positive Feedback
20 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
GSM countries in 1998:ChileChileFrench French CaribbeanCaribbeanParaguayParaguayVenezuelaVenezuela
GSM Phenomena in Latin America
GSM countries after 2000:Antigua & Antigua & BarbudaBarbudaArgentinaArgentinaBoliviaBoliviaBrazilBrazilChileChileEl SalvadorEl SalvadorFrench French CaribbeanCaribbeanGuatemalaGuatemalaJamaicaJamaicaMexicoMexicoParaguayParaguayPeruPeru SurinameTrinidad & TobagoVenezuelaVenezuela
ColombiaUruguayUruguayEcuadorEcuadorGuyanaGuyana
GSMGSM
Maybe Maybe GSMGSM
TDMA/TDMA/CDMACDMA
22 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Economies of scale
TDMA/GSMCDMA
Infravendors 3/+10~7
Infra market ~4B/~17B~$6B
Subscribers 62M/450M80M
Terminal vendors 5/40 20~60% of world market
+200 M units in 2000Various sources: Nokia, EMC, Ovum
0BUSD
5BUSD
10BUSD
15BUSD
20BUSD
25BUSD
1H99 2H99 1H00 2H00
CDMA
TDMA
GSM
~35% of CDMAsubscribers are in Korea (1/2001)
Source : Global Mobile
23 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
First to the market
• Usually new features come first to GSM - vendors spend most and first of their efforts on the largest market
• SMS (chat, picture messaging, ring tones, logos / icons)• Circuit switched data (9.6 kbps -> 14.4 kbps -> HSCSD x times
14.4 kbps)• WAP• Packet data (GPRS and EGPRS)• Location Based Services (E-OTD, Cell ID & TA, GPS)• Accessories (Handspring visor GSM module, telematics, etc.)• SIM card
• Security• M-commerce• SIM ATK• Control over handset configuration with Class 2 SMS• Distribution
• SyncML, MMS, Java, EPOC terminals
24 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Strong Standardization
• Well defined standards in GSM and WCDMA
• GSM standard is strict, with rigorous Type Approval -> all carriers can utilize the standard terminal
• Other technologies with loose standards present possibility for endless carrier variations increasing the cost for handsets
• Easy to have multiple infrastructure vendors for GSM
• GSM offers worldwide roaming• Value added services available when you roam (SMS, CSD,
WAP, etc.)
25 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Analogue & Digital Technologies
GSM64%
CDMA12%
TDMA9%
PDC5%
Analogue10%
Source: EMC 01/2001
Subscribers worlwide
GSM 455 687 350CDMA 84 620 510TDMA 66 602 540PDC 38 543 700Analogue 68 489 870
Total 713 943 970
26 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
GSM71%
CDMA13%
TDMA10%
PDC6%
Digital Cellular Technologies
Source: EMC 01/2001
Subscribers worlwide
GSM 455 687 350CDMA 84 620 510TDMA 66 602 540PDC 38 543 700Total 645 454 100
27 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
World Cellular Subscriber Division end 2000
Source: EMC 12/00
GSM900/180021%
GSM19002%
TDMA800/19004%
TDMA19000%
TDMA8004%
Analogue10%
PDC7%
CDMA800/19003%
CDMA19002%
CDMA17002%
CDMA8005%
GSM90031%
GSM18009%
28 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
1999 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1H2001 2H20011999 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1H2001 2H2001
WCDMA becoming the dominant 3G
standard
Liechtenstein
SpainUK
JapanNetherlands
GermanyItalyAustria
NorwaySwitzerland
SwedenPortugal
Finland
France
5 x WCDMA
6 x WCDMA
2 x WCDMA1 x CDMA2000
1 x WCDMA
4 x WCDMA
4 x WCDMA
5 x WCDMA
5 x WCDMA
4 x WCDMA
4 x WCDMA4 x WCDMA
6 x WCDMA
S. Korea
5 x WCDMA
2 x WCDMA1 x CDMA2000 [??]
DenmarkGreece
Ireland
Hong KongTaiwan
Czech
Belgium3 x WCDMA
73 WCDMA licences awarded plus more to come… (120 by end 2001)Vs13 CDMA2000 networks planned (out of which 2 already opted for WCDMA)
AustraliaNew Zealand
Singapore
4 x WCDMA
4 x WCDMA
5 x WCDMA
29 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
2 Mbits/s
170 kbits/s
76.8 kbits/s
14.4 kbits/s
43.2 kbits/s
10 Mbits/s
Evolution of Mobile Radio Standards
Estimated Product Availabiliy
EDGE
TDMA (IS-41)
CDPD
384 kbits/s
115.2 kbits/s
GPRSGSM (MAP)HSCSD
PDC/PDC-P
cdmaOne(IS-41)
WCDMA FDD
WCDMAHSDPA
307.2 kbits/s
cdma2000-1X
Standardin
preparation
Standardcompleted
200220012000 2003
WCDMA TDD
200kHz
5MHz
1.25MHz
30kHz
2.4 Mbits/s
2 Mbits/s
Wid
e a
rea c
overa
ge
TD-SCDMA
4,8 Mbits/s
1XEV - DV
1XEV - DO
30 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Nokia UltraSite: solutions that garanty tomorrow operators
today's investement
• Nokia UltraSite Base Station: One unit for all technologies!
• How does it work?• First 'triple-mode BTS' in the world for GSM, EDGE,
UMTS• Data speeds of up to 107,4 kbit/s with GRPS• Data speed of more than 400 kbit/s with EDGE• Data speeds of up to 2Mbit/s with UMTS carriers• Operates on all relevant frequencies
• What are the benefits?• Mobile Multimedia Coverage and GSM Coverage• Enables GPRS, ECSD, EGPRS data services• One platform for all of GSM, EDGE, and UMTS• Secures the operators network investement•
GSM or EDGE
part
WCDMA part
31 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Summary
• TDMA and GSM are converging with a smooth evolution path to 3G
• GSM is the dominate 2G protocol• WCDMA and EDGE will be the dominate 3G protocol• Global economies of scale and global roaming• Better and more cost effective terminal, infra and
application portfolio
• GSM800/1800/1900 enables 3G evolution to TDMA operators
• Common core network for GSM/GPRS -> EDGE/WCDMA
• Triple mode Nokia Ultrasite base station• Multimode and multiband terminalsTerminals will allow roaming Worldwide
(GSM + WCDMA)
32 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD
Thanks!Muito Obrigado!