Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key Information Other InformationCompany Public company: NYSE
2013 Revenue: $1.8B+2013 EBITA: $540M+
Symbol: IHSPeople: 8,000+EPS: $4.75+
Business Focused on information servicesOffices worldwideAcquires leading companies
Many industries31 countries7-12 per year
Industries Aerospace & DefenseAutomotiveConstructionElectronics & Media (iSuppli)GovernmentMetals & MiningOil & GasShipping & Transportation
AgricultureChemicalsConsumer & RetailFinancialHealthcareMilitary & SecurityPower & UtilitiesRenewable Energy
IHS Overview
2
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key Information Other InformationProducts & Services
Auto sales by brand & modelAuto production: brand & modelAuto ownership databaseAuto history by VINAuto technology information
Countries & worldwidePlant, OEM, countriesUSA & other countriesMostly USA (Polk)Infotainment & ADAS
Auto Tech Focus: Infotainment & ADASModel Year feature availabilityForecasts by segments & OEMInfotainment system portalAuto software & services portalDriver assist/ADAS portalInfotainment usability portal
Databases & forecastsOnline databaseSupplier market shareAudio, navi & othersTelematics, apps, otherACC, LDW, PA, BSDYouTube channel*
IHS iSuppli (E&M)
Focus: Semiconductor industryInfotainment component portalPortables & LBS portalAuto system tear-downsCE & PC system services
Including auto semiAudio, navi & othersPND, smartphonesBOM cost estimatesGrowing auto impact
IHS Automotive Products & Services
VIN=Vehicle Identification Number; ACC=Adaptive Cruise Control; PA=Park Assist; LDW=Lane Departure Warning; BSD=Blind Spot Detection; BOM=Bill of Materials; LBS=Location Based Services
* http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB07AC4A0233D85AD
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
#M
2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2019 2022
ProdSales
WW Auto Production & Sales
2012-22 CAGR: Production 3.1%; Sales 3.2%
IHS July2013 data
Light Vehicles
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
#M
2012 2013 2014 2016 2019 2022
USAAmericasEuropeEMEAJapanChinaRest of AP
Auto Production: Regions
IHS July2013 data
EU growth starting in 2014 Light Vehicles
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
#M
2009 2012 2019
ToyotaVWGMR-NH-KFordFiat-ChrHondaPSASuzukiBMWDaimler
Top 12 WW Share: 80.7% 80.8% 77.0%
Includes Joint Ventures in China Light Vehicles
Auto Production: Top 12 OEMs
IHS July 2013 data: Light Vehicles
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
#
USA Br Ru In Cn De Fr
199520002005201020152020
Light Vehicles
Motorization: Autos In-Use per 1000 People
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key Impact Other InformationRegulation Emission & fuel efficiency
Ownership (some cities)Safety rules
CO2, MPG & othersSingapore, Beijing, othersESC, eCall,
Car Use Issues
Operational costsTraffic jams & congestionParking search
Gas, parking, toll etc.Delays & costHassle, delays & cost
Consumer Electronics
Connected consumersSmartphone appsCloud info & services
Want car connections tooWant apps in car use tooWant car use too
Information Tech
Lower emissionsBetter fuel-efficiencyBetter safety systemsAutonomous systems
Computer-based systemsComputer-based controlDriver assist systemsNCAP inclusion emerging
Competing Tech
Mass transit systemsCar-sharingInfo tech substitution
Train, subway, bus, etc.Businesses & private (apps)Web meetings, shopping, etc.
Automotive Industry: External Forces
MPG=Miles Per Gallon; ESC=Electronic Stability Control; NCAP=New Car Assessment Program;
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics Driving Forces
Engine & Powertrain
Environmental Issues
• Mandate driven
Higher fuel economyLower emissionsLess congestion
Auto Systems
Chassis & Body
Driver/Passenger Comfort
Driver/Pass Infotainment
Driving Forces
Issues
Accident Avoidance and/or Mitigation
• Mandates emerging
Connected Car & Cloud
Computing• Customer pull
ADAS=Advanced Driver Assist Systems; ICE=Internal Combustion Engine; PHEV=Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Driver distractionDriver warningsDriver error fixes
More distractionUsage restrictionsApps & services
System Solutions
ADAS & Driver Assist
V2V & V2I Self-Driving
PHEV & EV ICE Advance
Telematics: eCall & Others
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Auto Industry ICT Product Flow
ST Micro
NXP
Volkswagen
GM
Ford
Renault
Vehicle OEMs
Value Chain Company Examples
TI
Freescale
Hardware Products Software Products
Elektrobit Vector
Microsoft QNX
Valeo Mobileye
Paragon Parrot
Bosch Continental
Visteon Magneti
MicrocomputersMemory chipsSensor chipsOther chips
Device Interface Software
Operating SystemAuto MiddlewareSoftware Tools
Application SWHMI Software
Electronic SystemsSub-SystemsECU Modules
Sensor Modules
Network SystemsElectronic Systems
ECU ModulesSensor Modules
System IntegrationApplication SW
Operating SystemHMI Software
BMW
Toyota
Electronic SystemsECU Modules
Sensor Modules
Application SWOperating System
HMI Software
Product Flow
Tier 1 Suppliers
Software Suppliers
Tier 2 & 3Suppliers
Silicon Providers
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Definition System ExamplesInfotainment Includes navigation functions and all
audio, video, human-machine interfaces and control electronicsMay include dashboard system
Head-unit, premium audio & RSENavigation, telematics & appsSmartphone apps integrationInstrument cluster
Powertrain Includes systems for engine control, fuel supply, starters, alternators, batteries, engine or transmission cooling, transmission control and environmental controls
Engine controlTransmission controlFuel & valve controlStarter & alternatorBattery management
Chassis & Safety
Includes systems for controlling the speed & braking, where car is goingIncludes passive and active safety systems such as driver assistAutonomous function control
Brakes (ABS) & Suspension (ESC)Steering (power, steer-by-wire)Tire pressure monitoring (TPMS)Airbag & seat-belt controlDriver assist (ACC, LDW, PA, BSD)
Body Electronics
Includes systems for controlling doors, windows, wipers, lights, signals, mirrors etc.
Lighting controlDoor & window controlWiper & mirror control
Comfort & Convenience
Includes electronics related to providing comfort and convenience
Climate controlSeat control
Auto Electronics Systems
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Global Auto Electronics Value: OEM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$B
2008 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017
Electronics
2012-17 CAGR: Electronics 6.0%; Auto Sales 4.5%
Revenue is sales to auto OEM
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Global Auto Electronics Value by Segment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
$B
2012 2013 2015 2017
InfotainmentPowertrainSafety-ChassisComfortBodyOthers
2012-17 CAGR
Revenue is sales to auto OEM
Info: 5.6%PT: 5.0%S-C: 9.4%
Comfort: 5.6%Body: 4.2%
Others: 4.1%
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Communication Links
What Is Telematics? Big Picture
Telematics Platform:Hardware & Software
Services & Apps to Car
• Car centric• Driver centric• Passenger centric
Telematics is a Platform for Connected Car Apps and Services
OEM• Embedded Modem
• Smartphone
Aftermarket• Embedded Modem
• Smartphone
Services & Apps based on
Multiple Cars• V2V & V2I• Autonomous cars
Services & Apps based on Car Data• Car centric• Driver centric• Cargo centric
Post-2020
V2V=Vehicle-to-Vehicle; V2I=Vehicle-to-Infrastructure
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2000 2010 2020
Safety & Security
Cable or Cradle
DSRC-802.11p
Embedded Cellular
Driver Phone
Data Plan & AppsSW Updates-FOTA
Remote Diagnostics
How is the Car Connected?
Smartphone Apps
Bluetooth HFI
Driver Centric
V2V & V2I Apps
Real-time Data
Core auto Centric
Off-board Navi & LBS
OEM or AM Cellular Dongle
Data Plan to Wi-Fi
Multi-Device Data Plan
Infotainment Centric
SP Multi-Device Data Plan
1 wireless connection Multiple connections
HFI=Hands-Free Interface; FOTA=Firmware Over The Air
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Time
Auto Wireless Systems
Cellular Systems
Broadcast Signals
AM Radio
Bluetooth
Analog-1G
Short-Range Wireless
FM Radio
Satellite Radio
Digital Radio: HD; DAB-DMB
Wi-Fi: 802a/b/g/n
BT 3.0+HS
Mobile TVGPS
Keyless RF DSRC-V2X5.9 GHz band
NFC; BT 4.0
2G-2.5G
3G-3.5G
4G LTE
802ac/ad
Mobile TV primarily in Japan, Korea & ChinaSatellite Radio primarily in N. America
4.5G
5G
White SpaceUnused TV Spectrum
Competition for data
going to the car
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
What Content Goes To & From a Car?Segment Key Information Comments
Car Electronics & Sensors(VRM)
Remote diagnosticsECU software correctionsECU software updatesECU software functional upgradesLocation data: Event or regular useSensor data: Event or regular use
On-demand or monthlyEmerging applicationFuture app: 1-3 times/yearFuture app: fee-basedTraffic probe, SVT, ACNEmerging apps
Driver
(Distraction Issues)
Safety & security services & appsRemote controlNavigation & LBSEntertainmentVoice-communicationInformation servicesText-based communicationSmartphone apps interactions
Mostly rare, undesirable eventsConvenience & cost savingsOn-board & Off-boardMusic-centricPhone call-centricNews, sport, business, etc.SMS & email-centricCar-related & general apps
Passenger Most driver services & appsRear-seat entertainmentFront-seat entertainment
Minimal distraction issuesGames, audio, videoAudio, games
VRM=Vehicle Relationship ManagementACN=Automatic Collision Notification
ECU=Electronic Control UnitSVT=Stolen Vehicle Tracking
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Functionality
Fixed Function Head-Unit
• AM/FM Radio• Music player
Pre 1990 2000 2010 2020
Infotainment Evolution
Car-phone
Multi-Function Head-Unit
• Emb telematics• AM/FM radio• Music player• Premium audio• IV navigation
Connected H-U• Emb telematics• MD telematics• Smartphone HFI• AM/FM/Sat radio• Digital music• Premium audio• IV navigation• Smartphone navi
Cloud ConnectedHead-Unit
•Embedded & MD data plan telematics•Smartphone Apps Integration•AM/FM/Sat/Digital•Digital music•Premium audio•SW navi w/SP & cloud augmentation•Cloud content galore
IV=In Vehicle; MD=Mobile Device; SW=Software
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Bluetooth HFI
Navi & Services
Com Link
Head-Unit Platform
BT & Wi-Fi Data Plan
Bluetooth & Data Plan
Smartphone Auto Impact TrendsSmartphone as Head-Unit
Mobile Navi• On/Off-board• Traffic info
Embedded tied to Smartphone Data Plan
LBS Apps• Dest download• Mobile search
2010 2015 2020
HMI & Interfaces
USB/iPod/BTSpeech/Touch
Apps Integration
Voice & Music
Text & Email
SP Platform as Head-Unit
Multi-touch Gesture HMI
HMI for Apps Integration
EV & RC
Interactive Navi• HMI integrated
• Service suite
Internet Radio
iPod Out, SpeechBT 3.0 + HS
H-U Apps Integration
Cloud Info & Apps
EV=Electric Vehicle; RC=Remote Control; HMI=Human Machine Interface; BT=Bluetooth
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Auto Focused
Smartphone Connected Car: Big Picture
Car OEMs & Regions
IVI Systems
Comm Links
Content & Apps
Telematics System
Travel Content
Entertainment Focused
Telematics SPs
Service Providers
Cellular SPs
Smartphone App Stores
Music Content
Connected RSE; Pad
Connected Head-Unit
Smartphone Voice & HFI
Bluetooth & Wi-Fi
Head-Unit & Smartphone
Video Content
LBS Content
Other Content
Auto App Stores
Cloud/Web Auto Focus
Cloud/Web Suppliers
Smartphone Data Plan
How will the blocks be connected and which block will lead?Which content and apps will be most important?How will OEMs deploy systems/services by regions?
Which Hardware/Software platforms will lead?What is the deployment timeframe? By OEM and Region?
North AmericaFord, GM, Honda,
BMW,VW, Hyundai, M-B, Nissan, Toyota
EU & MEABMW, M-B, PSA, VW, Fiat, Hyundai, Ford, GM, SAIC
Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Volvo
Asia-PacificHonda, Nissan, Toyota, SAIC, Hyundai, BAC, BMW, M-B,
PSA, VW, Fiat, Ford, GM
QNX Platform
HW/SW Platforms
Genivi Platform
Android Platforms
Other Platforms?
Microsoft Platform
Pad Platforms?
USB & Aux In
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key InformationQuestion Smartphones already have thousands of auto-related apps:
Navigation (onboard and off-board), traffic info & LBSInternet radio and digital music storageCommunication apps (texting, email)Social network appsTelematics apps (remote control, vehicle location)Entertainment apps
Do we still need in-vehicle infotainment apps?Answer Yes, key in-vehicle apps are needed to provide a user interface
that focus the driver’s hands and mental power on driving tasksSome IVI apps use auto data for advanced functionality and needs to be built-in into an IVI systemBut the majority of Smartphone apps can be used in the car with apps integration software between H-U and Smartphone
Why Driver distraction issues require an auto HMI that is better than what a Smartphone can provideMandates that limit driver distraction from mobile devices are likely to be introduced sooner or later
IVI Apps vs. Smartphone Apps
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
IVI SystemIVI Apps PlatformSoftware Platform
Middleware PlatformOS Platform
Hardware PlatformMCU Platform
Infotainment Platform-ization
IVI AppsHMI SW
APIsMiddleware
OS SWHMI HW
MCU/Memory
New IVI Architecture
Infotainment System
• Proprietary HW
• Proprietary SW
Old IVI Architecture
• Competition at system level
• Low SW re-use• Low HW re-use
• Competition at every level
• High SW re-use• High HW re-use
Similar trend for core auto ECUs via AUTOSAR
SW Layers
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Fixed Function Apps Head-Unit
Head-UnitFixed Function
Design
Smartphone Apps Integration
SoftwareRadio
ReceiverCD Music
Player
2005-2010 2015-2020
Optional Navigation
Apps Head-UnitSoftware-based Platform Design
Smartphone Apps
Built-in Head-Unit Apps
3G-4G Com Link & Data Plan
1000s of Car Apps
Digital Radio & MP3 Player
10-20 AppsOEM ChosenDriver Chosen
Main HMI•Natural speech•Multi-touch gesturing display
• ICD HMI overlap•Text-to-Speech•SWC
Main HMI•Switches-Knobs•Center display•Rotary haptic•SWC•Limited speech
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Control Input
IVI HMI Technology: Big Picture
Information
Input Hardware
Alert/Feedback Information
MicrophoneStereo mics
Keyboard or Simulation
DisplaysICD
Head-unitHUDMirror
Speakers
Touch displayMulti-touchTouch pad
Switch, KnobMulti-switches
Rotary SwitchRotary Haptic
SensorsCameraRadar
ProximityGesture
LightsSound
Vibration
Output HardwareHMI Software
SoftwareDevice driversRadio controlCD controlSpeech recText-to-speechMulti-touchBT ProfilesHFI Software1-shot addressPattern reciPod controlInternet radioSMS & email via SR/TTS
InterfacesUSBSD
iPodAuxiliaryBluetooth
Wi-Fi
Haptic Output
InterfacesUSBSD
iPodAuxiliaryBluetooth
Wi-Fi
HMI must only take a fraction of the driver’s mental power, eye & hand activities
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
IVI Apps
IVI Apps Platform
Software PlatformMiddleware Platform
OS PlatformHardware Platform
MCU Platform
Auto Apps Approaches
IVI AppsHMI SW
APIsMiddleware
OS SWHMI HW
MCU/Memory
IVI System
Auto OEM HU Browser•Built-in auto HMI•For HTML5/Web apps•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: BMW Internet
Auto OEM SDK•APIs for auto HMI•To develop HU apps•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: GM
Auto OEM SDK•APIs for auto HMI•To develop SP apps•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: Ford AppLink
SP Apps Integration•Tailor SP app to auto HMI•To run SP apps from HU•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: MirrorLink, Aha, others•OEMs: BMW, Toyota, Audi Note: SDK may be open
or only for partners
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Hardware Abstraction Layer• Equivalent to BIOS in PCs
IVI Apps: Big Picture
IVI Hardware Platform• Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?
IVI HMI Hardware• Input, Output & Control
IVI Software Platform• OS Kernel & Middleware
IVI HMI Software Platform• Auto OEM specific
IVI Apps• Downloaded apps• Driver chosen
IVI Apps• Built-in apps• OEM chosen
IVI Apps• Apps integration• OEM chosen
Smartphone Apps & Content
• Genivi• Microsoft • QNX• Android
Platforms• Android• iPhone 5• WP8• BlackBerry 10
Current Standards• MirrorLink• Aha Radio• Pioneer Zypr• Airbiquity Choreo• Livio Connect• VNC, Google OAP• HTML5 interpreter
• Music apps• Navi-LBS apps• Telematics apps• Search apps• CRM apps• Remote diagnostics• SP remote control
• Travel & LBS• Eco apps• Social network apps• Entertainment apps• Car-centric apps• PAYD-PHYD
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Information CommentsMainframe Computer Apps
Initially IBM produced most SW3rd party apps became important
In the 1960sIn the 1970s until today
Minicomputer Apps
Suppliers only did system SW3rd parties did nearly all apps
In the 1970s and 1980sPCs killed market in 1990s
Personal Computers
Suppliers only did system SW3rd parties did nearly all apps
OSS also did system SWIn the 1980s until today
Smartphone Apps
Suppliers only did system SW3rd parties did nearly all apps
OSS also did system SWApp stores speeded this up
Auto Apps Tier 1s did system SW and appsIn future 3rd parties will do apps
Open API will change thisWhy will auto be different?
Summary & Lessons
3rd parties always lead in appsLargest platforms usually winDevelopment tools are crucialStandards can change marketsWin-win business model is key
Largest innovation poolFirst mover is importantOpen source tools importantWatch for HMI API standardsAvoid organizational barriers
Historical Perspectives on Apps
OSS=Open Source Software
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key InformationContent Platform
Platform for content: From text & graphics to multimediaVast improvements from previous versionsHTML5 can handle all types of content
Web Apps Platform
Cross-browser platform for web applicationsWithout browser plug-insImproved security compared to previous browser versions
Smartphone Apps Platform
Platform for Smartphone applicationsCross-platform for portability across all Smartphone platforms
SW Portability Platform
Cross-platform for portability across hardware platformsCross-platform for portability across OS platformsHMI will require some customization, but new Device Location APIs will help for some device segments
Summary Any device accessing web & cloud content need HTML5 capabilities—ASAPHTML5 based apps will compete strongly with native application in majority of cases
HTML5 IVI Impact
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2010 2015 2020
Unknown Future Apps
Embedded Car Apps
Car Controlled SP Apps
IVI Apps• Navigation• Telematics
• Digital Music
Future of Auto Apps
SP Apps Integration• Auto API SDKs
• Open/Partner-only
Cloud Apps & Services
Cloud Service• Web Browser• HTML5 apps
IVI SW Platforms
Connected Car
Auto HMI APIs
Car-Centric Apps• IVI apps & others• HTML5 run-time
Auto Data APIs
Required innovation
Most innovative new apps will be here
Many new apps will leverage APIs and be here
Smartphone apps for car HMI. Any apps innovation?
Cloud apps for car HMI. Any apps innovation?
Car Apps• New apps • Car-centric• Innovation
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
A Long-Time Problem, Long-Term Solutions
Accident Costs• USA Cost 2000: $230B+• USA cost 2010: $300B+; 2%+ of GDP• EU Costs 2010: $280B+; 2% of GDP• Accident rates slowly declining• Cost decline: “Not so much”•Over 90% of accidents are caused by driver errors
Autonomous Cars•Multiple approaches:•ADAS & V2X vs. Standalone vs. ?•Technology: Solvable•Price: Starts high, declines rapidly•Drivers: Can be convinced with safety + efficiency + convenience arguments•Legal: Hardest issue due to distribution of risk & liability
The Problem
The Long-Term SolutionDriver Assist & ADAS
• Park assist & Self parking• Adaptive cruise control• Lane departure/lane keep assist• Side object/blind spot detection• Forward collision warning• Automatic braking• Growth for all systems• From luxury to mid-range models
Current Solutions
V2V & V2I• V2V has network effect• V2V need mandate for max impact• V2V will be inexpensive system• V2I has large infrastructure costs• USA: V2I comes after V2V• EU & Japan: V2I comes first• Deployment timing uncertainties
Mid-Term Solution
35
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key InformationADAS Overview
Advanced Driver Assist Systems warn about driving dangersMay improve driving skills and may have autonomous operationADAS functions are focused on avoiding most common accidents
Park Assist Systems
Ultrasonic PA is most popular system worldwide—lowest priceCamera PA is on a growth path in USA due to future mandateAutonomous PA & Top-Down PA are growing segments
Adaptive Cruise Control
ACC is mostly radar-based and primarily for luxury segmentForward Collision Warning & Autonomous Braking features addedACC improves traffic flow with 10% plus penetration
Lane Assist Systems
Camera-based platform for lane assist: LDW, LKA & othersFCW, Traffic Sign Recognition & High Beam Assist
Side Object Detection
SOD or BSD are radar or camera-based systemsNewest system, but showing strong growth
Take-away ADAS are on a trajectory from luxury autos to entry autosADAS are entering mid-range autos in a major way by 2015ADAS mandates are likely to emerge: Camera rear park is first
ADAS: Big Picture
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Driver Assist Trends – Adding AutonomyPlatform Adding Functionality Adding Autonomy
Adaptive Cruise Control
Full Speed Range, Stop & GoCity ACC
Longitudinal distance controlAutonomous emergency braking
Collision Warning, Avoidance & Mitigation
Avoidance brakingCollision-Imminent Mitigation BrakingPedestrian DetectionSensor fusion
Integration with ACC platformFull autonomous brake powerMore data higher confidencegreater and more effective autonomy
Lane Departure Warning
Active Lane Keep AssistIntegration with forward-sensing
Autonomous lateral controlLongitudinal + lateral autonomy = Super Cruise
Side Object Detection
Active object avoidance interventionSensor fusion, park assist integration
Autonomous lateral controlLow-speed automatic braking
Park Assist Fully Autonomous Park AssistMoving Object Detection software
Autonomous steering + acceleration/brakeLow-speed automatic braking
Vision-Based ADAS
Traffic Sign RecognitionDriver MonitoringAdaptive Front Light, High Beam Assist
Automatic situational awarenessSafeguard when drivers choose to driveVisual assistance for driver or vehicle
Location-Enabled ADAS
Traffic Sign RecognitionSpeed Curve AlertEnhanced Map Data
Confirmation and/or detectionAutonomous speed safety adjustmentsAutomatic optimization of powertrain
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Functionality
ADAS Systems• Predictive collision avoidance• Autonomous ADAS functions
Passive Driver Assist• Sensor-based warning• Ride/handling control assist
Active Driver Assist• Proactive control systems• Collision impact mitigation
Autonomous Driving• ADAS & V2X• Semi Full autonomy
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Driver Assist Trends
Reactive Safety• Seatbelts• Airbags• Anti-Lock Brakes
Vehicle Dynamics• Traction Control• Electronic Stability Control
V2V & V2I• V2V has network effect• V2V need mandate
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
V2V and V2I Applications
V2I Applications• Intersection safety• Turning safety• Merging safety• Eco/fuel-saving apps• 15+ applications
Infotainment Link• Information to driver• Info to passengers• Info to mobile devices• Telematics applications
V2V2I: Communication links for many applications & services
V2V Applications• Emergency warnings• Enhanced driver assist• Collision avoidance• New driver assist apps• 20+ applications
V2V & V2I- Broadband com link- IEEE 802.11p; DSRC- IEEE 1609 WAVE- SAE J735 Messages- Other com links
Transport Efficiency• Traffic management• ETC & other payments• Traffic info flow: 2-way• Road condition info
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key InformationV2X Overview
V2V is inexpensive system with many safety-related applicationsV2I has similar apps, but requires complex network infrastructuresGrowing driver distraction requires technology solutions like V2X
V2V versus V2I
V2V can address 75% plus of all accident (non-impaired drivers)V2I can address most remaining accidents categoriesV2V2I as a primary countermeasure in 81% of all accidentsV2I has many ITS and eco-related applications
Technology Issues
Most V2V apps require response times that cellular cannot meetNetwork features of consumer Wi-Fi has problems for V2V appHence a V2X tailored Wi-Fi version, 802.11p, is being tested
V2V versus ADAS
V2V and ADAS have overlapping functionalityLong-term vision: Combine V2V & ADAS into autonomous driving
Deployment Issues
V2V is only useful if nearby autos also have V2V (network effect)Hence a mandate for all new cars is best deployment strategyAftermarket V2V devices further increases the V2X value & ROI
Take-away V2V is probably least costly way to lower accident costsUSA is expected to deploy a V2V mandate due to its network effectUSA V2I investments are politically unrealistic and will be delayedEU is expected to deploy V2X on a voluntary basis post-2016
V2V & V2I: Big Picture
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key InformationWhat Is It? Autos with technologies that allow operation without driver control
Autonomous driving or self-driving cars or robotic carsWhat tech is needed?
Sensors to spot all moving and fixed objects in path of travelSoftware to interpret all the sensor data—360 degree viewSoftware & hardware to control the direction & speed of the carOverall algorithms and software implementation of a skilled driver
Approaches ADAS: Only partial autonomous drivingPlatooning/Cooperative ACC: Group of cars with only 1 “driver”Sensor-based only: Google, DARPA Grand ChallengeSensors & V2X: No examples yet, but likely to be most important
What are the key challenges?
Technology: Hardware & software is emerging and are solvableCost: Very high today, but price will decline rapidlyLegal: Likely hardest problem due to economic risk distributionROI: Society’s ROI is assured; Auto OEM’s ROI-not so much
Takeaway Self-driving cars is a when question; not an if questionSometime between 2020 and 2025, self-driving cars are likely to be commercially available
Autonomous Driving Overview
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Requirements ImplicationsTech Advances
Navigate from current location to destinationFollow all traffic rulesFollow lanes, road and routeAvoid crashes with pedestrians, surrounding traffic & obstaclesControl all driving systemsControl handoff to and from carUp-to-date informationMinimal failure impactImproved use of driver’s time
High resolution maps and positioning Read all road signsSpecial navi systemSensors and vast computing powerSensors, compute powerUser interfacesContinuous updatesReliability & redundancyDriving not a distraction
Cost Luxury cars: $5,000 to $10,000Entry cars: $500-$1,500
Rapid cost declinesLater deployment
Others Laws for self-driving carsInsurance for self-driving carsBuyers for self-driving cars
New laws requiredRisk-liability assignmentsCar enthusiasts: No?
What Is Needed for a Self-Driving Car?
42
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key InformationSelf-Driving Car Electronics Costs: R&D
R&D self-driving car projects have very high costsGoogle’s LIDAR systems are in the $70K rangeTotal cost of Google’s sensors are in the $250K rangeThe price of the car is in addition to the electronics costs
Self-Driving Electronics Car Costs: Production
Speculative to estimate the cost of self-driving electronicsHence a few scenarios will be presented in next slideThese are incremental costs for self-driving electronics costs, but includes V2X and at least part of ADAS products
Cost scenarios 3 electronics cost levels: $25K, $15K and $10K2 average yearly cost declines: 15% and 20%Project the cost after 3, 5, 8, 10 and 15 years
Self-Driving Car Cost Perspectives
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Self-Driving Car:Electronics Price Decline Scenario
Autonomous Electronics
Cost% Yearly Decline Year 3 Year 5 Year 8 Year 10 Year 15
15% 15,353 11,093 6,812 4,922 2,184$25,000 20% 12,800 8,192 4,194 2,684 880
15% 9,212 6,656 4,087 2,953 1,310$15,000
20% 7,680 4,915 2,517 1,611 52815% 6,141 4,437 2,725 1,969 874
$10,00020% 5,120 3,277 1,678 1,074 352
Cost Takeaway:• Self-driving car electronics cost are likely to decline rapidly• With a starting cost of $10K, the cost will reach an affordable range within 5 years• With higher starting cost it will take a few more years
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2005 2015 2025 2035
Fully Self-Driving CarsNHTSA: L4
Partial AutonomyNHTSA: L2
Limited Self-DrivingNHTSA: L3
Self-Driving Car Evolution
Self-Driving Car EraPoint-to-Point, Multi-Approaches
Selective Autonomous DrivingHighways, Traffic Jams, Road Trains
Autonomous FunctionsAutonomy Combinations
NHTSA=National Highway Traffic Safety Administration45
Limited AutonomyNHTSA: L1
Autonomous FunctionsACC, Self-Park, Braking
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Key Information Other InformationFocus Set ECU software standards
Decouple HW & SW designLower development cost-time
Layered software architectureReusable SW & HW componentsEnhanced quality & efficiency
Members 153 members (8/2013)Core: 9 membersPremium: 42 membersAssociate: 81 membersDevelopment: 21 members
In four groups7 OEMs & 2 Tier 1s9 OEMs & 8 Tier 1s, others8 OEMs & 10 Tier 1s, othersMostly software companies
Who are the leaders?
German OEMs & Tier 1sEU & USA software firmsEuropean OEMs & Tier 1sUSA OEMs & Tier 1sJapan OEMs & Tier 1sOther OEMs & Tier 1s
BMW, Daimler, VW, Conti, BoschVector, dSpace, EB, ETAS, MentorPSA, Fiat, Renault, MagnetiFord, GM, Delphi, TRWJASPAR, Toyota, Honda, DensoHyundai, Great Wall, SAIC, Chery
Status Decade of developmentFour versions released
Mostly European OEMsMultiple upgrades: Latest is 4.1.1
Opportunity 2013: 50M Autosar ECUs*25% of ECUs in 2016*Every auto ECU by 2025
2016: 300M Autosar ECUs*7 Core OEMs: 47% WW shareExcluding infotainment ECUs
AUTOSAR: Auto ECU Driving Force
*Source: AUTOSAR; Core OEM partners only
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Application Layer
Runtime Environment
(RTE)
Basic Software (BSW)
Microcontroller
AUTOSAR Layered Software Architecture
Overview
Autosar OS is an extension of OSEK
Application Layer•Applications software components (1,2 .. n)•Autosar interface (for each component)
Runtime Environment (RTE)•Traditional RTE software functions•RTE implements Virtual Function Bus (VFB)•VFB is HW independent communication between apps software components
BSW Layers:•Service layer (System incl. Autosar OS, Memory, Communication Services)•ECU Abstraction (Onboard devices, Memory HW, Communication HW, I/O HW)•MCU Abstraction (MCU drivers, Memory drivers, Communication drivers, I/O drivers)
Microcontroller (MCU)
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autosar-Compliant ECU Growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
#M
2010 2014 2020
Autosar ECUs
05
101520253035404550
%
2010 2014 2020
Autosar Share of ECUs
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Features 2020 Changes*Propulsion System Mix
ICE: Gasoline engineICE: Diesel engineHybrid ICE & PHEVBattery EV
From 77% share to 70-75%From 22% share to 25%-28%From 2%+ share to 5-8%From <0.2% share to 1-2%
Engine Control
Engine management systemElectronic GDI (direct injection)HCCI (emerging injection tech)Electronic valve control-EVCElectronic turbo controlCylinder-on-demandThrottle-by-wire
From 97% share to 100%From <10% share to 50-60%From 0% share to 20-30%From <1% share to 20-35%From <1% share to 10-15%From <1% share to 10-15%From <5% share to 50-70%
Transmission Control
Electronic transmissionTransmission-CVTMPE road geometry/attributes
From 60% share to 90-100%From <1% share to 10-20%From <1% share to 20-30%
OEM Linked Functions
Remote diagnosticsECU software fix/upgrade
From 5%+ share to 80%+From <1% share to 50%+
Powertrain Trends
*Varies by region
GDI=Gasoline Direct Injection; HCCI=Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition; MPE=Map & Position Engine
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Features 2020 Changes*Brake & Stability
• ABS• Electronic brake assist• Brake force distribution• Brake-by-wire• Traction control• Electronic stability-ESC• Tire pressure-TPMS
• From 60% share to 85-100%• From <1% share to 30-40%• From <5% share to 35-45%• From 0% share to 30-50%• From 30% share to 80-90%• From 25% share to 75-90%• From 40% share to 65-75%
Steering • Electric power steering• 4-wheel steering• Steer-by-wire
• From 26% share to 80-95%• From <1% share to 10-15%• From 0% share to 30-50%
Suspension • Electronic suspension• Active suspension• Suspension-by-wire
• From 38% share to 85-95%• From <2% share to 10-15%• From 0% share to 40-60%
Other • Event data recorder• Electronic Toll Collection-ETC
• From 25%+ share to 50-60%• From 7% share to 35-45%
OEM Linked Functions
• Remote diagnostics• ECU software fix/upgrade
• From 5%+ share to 80%+• From <1% share to 50%+
Chassis Function Growth
*Varies by region
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Features 2020 Changes*Dashboard-Instrument Cluster
Analog/digital displayMultifunction digital displayHead-up displaySpeech input controlSteering wheel controls
From 30%+ share to 65-70%From <2% share to 15%-25%From 1% share to 10-15%From 30% share to 60-70%From 30% share to 90-100%
Lighting Systems
LED-HID controlAdaptive front lighting
From <14% share to 20-25%From <1% share to 10-15%
Security Systems
Alarm systemImmobilizer systemStolen vehicle tracking
From <15% share to 35-45%From 80% share to 85%From <15% share to 45-55%
Comfort Systems
Electronic window controlElectronic seat controlElectronic HVAC controlRain sensitive wipersKeyless/passive entry
From 85/65% share to 90/70%**From <20% share to 35-50%From <15% share to 30-40%From <5% share to 55-70%From 62% share to 65-70%
OEM Linked Functions
Remote diagnosticsECU software fix/upgrade
From 5%+ share to 60%+From <1% share to 50%+
Body & Comfort Trends
*Varies by region; **Front/Rear Windows
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends
Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact
ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Data Consumption
Embedded Telematics• Safety & Security• Remote Diagnostics• 2.5G modem
2005 2010 2015 2020
Connected Car Evolution
Smartphone Data Plan• Streaming music/video• Telematics service• Apps & cloud content• 3G & 3.5G
VRM=Vehicle Relationship Management
SP & Multi-Device Data Plan• Streaming music/video• Telematics service• Auto apps & cloud content• 3.5G & LTE; Wi-Fi augmentation
Embedded Telematics• Streaming music• Auto apps & cloud content• S&S; VRM• LTE modem & Data Plan
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Connected Car Cost PerspectivesTrends 2020 Perspectives
Development Costs: HW
More complex systemsHW-SW platform architectureSystem-on-Chip growth
Better tools & building blocksAdvanced features & capabilitiesSignificant cost decline per system
Development Costs: SW
Largest development partSW platform required to lower development cost
Pre-configured software platformsAdvanced tools & middlewareSignificant cost decline per system
Development Costs: OEM Apps
IVI has limited volumeH-U vs. SP apps integrationSP vs. H-U apps: 80%-20%?
Advanced HMI platforms & tools100s of native H-U appsSteep H-U cost decline per app
Manufacturing Cost: HW
Less cost per functionSoC growth & importance
Declining system entry costSubstantial BOM cost decline
Manufacturing Cost: SW
IP & royalty costs growingOSS save small portion
Share of cost will growOSS will grow in importance
Apps Mfg Cost IP & royalty costs growing Share of cost will growService Costs Many new services likely Share of cost will growData Costs Multi-device plans emerging
Data volume & cost will growShare of cost will growLikely the most expensive portion
IP=Intellectual Property; OSS=Open Source Software
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020 Connected Car
Auto OEM
Cloud Content
Other Autos
Core Auto ECUs ADAS ECUs
Convenience ECUs
Infotainment ECUs
SmartphoneApps &
Data Plan
Devices in & around
Car
Key Fob
BT 4.0 and/or NFC
Wi-Fi Direct w/wo Router
BT 3.0 HS
Wi-Fi or USB
4G
Smartphone AppsBT 4.0
Embedded
3.5G or 4G
Roadside ITS
V2V
DSRC
V2I
DSRC
Embedded3.5G or 4G
Embedded links may be a shared connection; with or without a data plan
Tablet-based RSE
BT 3.0, Wi-Fi or USB
• SW upgrades via Ethernet network to all ECUs in car?
• Secure, ECU software distribution system
RSE=Rear Seat Entertainment
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Analog Car EraAnalog control systems
Analog-Digital Car EraDigital control system growth
Digital Car EraPlatform architectureRe-usable software
Self-Driving CarSoftware-defined carAutonomous driving
ECUs
Software-Defined Car Evolution
20 Year Hardware Improvements•MCU performance: 400 times•Memory chip: 32,000 times
The car is the most complex product in volume production!
AUTOSARRemote DiagnosticsSoftware APIs
Connected CarRemote SW UpgradesSoftware security
Questions?
Egil Juliussen, Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS,
IHS AutomotiveSeptember 9, 2013