At river mouths, predicts annual average export of:
Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds
* DIC in prep.
Original models and scenario applications published in 2 special issues of Global Biogeochemical Cycles (>25 papers)
Dissolved Particulate
Inorganic Organic
N DIN DON PN
P DIP DOP PP
C DIC* DOC POC
Si DSi
Nutrient Sources
NaturalN2-FixationP Weathering
AnthropogenicNon-Point
Fertilizer (by crop type)
N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N
PointSewage
(pop.; treatment level)
Water RunoffPrecip. IntensityLand-useSlopeLithology
Hydrology & Physical Factors
Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use
In-River N, P, SiRemoval
Nutrient Loading toCoastal Waters
Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010Seitzinger et al. 2010
Global NEWS Model
Global NEWS modeling Environment (GNE)(Python code that runs NEWS models)
Diffuse sources
Point sources
Hydrology
“Raw”, HeterogeneousGIS Source files
Diffusesources
Pre-processed, homogenizedGIS Input files
Pointsources
Hydrology
Manual steps,Ad-hoc automation Direct
Global NEWSinputs
Basin-scaleInputs tables
Global NEWSoutputs
Model outputs
Papers,Glory,$$$$
GNE
Complicated Variables other than basin means/sums.e.g. dam retention, FQrem, lithology class
Global NEWSmodel(s)
Comparison of Model Predicted vs Measured River Transport
Mod
eled
DIN
expo
rt(k
g N
bas
in-1
y-1)
Measured DI N export(kg N basin- 1 y- 1)
ChangJ iang
RhineMississippi
Elbe
Yukon
KolymaKamkatcha
Susquehanna
R2=0.79
DIN
Measured DOC yield(kg C km-2 yr-1)
Mo
del
ed D
OC
yie
ld(k
g C
km
-2 y
r-1)
Measured DIN export(kg N basin-1 yr-1)
Mo
del
ed D
IN e
xpo
rt(k
g N
bas
in-1 y
r-1)
Colorado
Dnepr
Susquehanna
Gambia
Ganges
Rhine
R2=0.88
Ganges
Disolved Inorganic N
Particulate N
Nitrogen
•Regional variations in watershed yields for all forms•Different spatial patterns for N and P and forms (due to differences in controlling factors)•Difference in dominant forms between N and P
Phosphorus
0
880
110
190
350
570
15
40
70
kg N/km2/yr
> 1220
0
500
10
20
50
100
1
2
5
kg P/km2/yr
> 2000
Dissolved Organic N
Disolved Inorganic P
Particulate P
Dissolved Organic P
Dominant DIN Sources
(Seitzinger & Harrison, 2008)
Millennium Assessment ScenariosGlobal Regional
Reactive
Proactive
OS
AMTG
GO
Integrated Development Scenarios
Nutrient Exportat River Mouth
Nutrient Sources from Food and
Energy
Population and Climate
Policy Options & Costs
DIN yields (kg N/km2/yr)
2030 scenarios vs mean 2030
80
-10
0
10
40
< -250
-80
-40
kg N/km2/yr
> 250
Run 4,5/22/08
N yield change
See legend on slide 1
Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic
Global Orchestration Techno-garden
2030 Average DIN Yield Average Change 2000-2030
(Seitzinger et al., 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)
NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield(kg P / km2 / yr)
NEWS-DIP-2005
NEWS-DIP-HD-2010
(Harrison et al., 2010; GBC)
NEWS-DIN recently applied to CA sub-watersheds
(Goodwin et al., Submitted)
SAC
SJRSAL
COL
MER
FEATUO
STAUSJ
COS
YUBAME
CACBEAORE
CAL
MOK
3
4
5
6
7
3 4 5 6 7
log observed DIN load (kg N/basin/yr)
log
mo
de
led
DIN
loa
d (
kg
N/b
as
in/y
r)
Mayorga et al. 2010 Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2010 - Special section
Seitzinger et al. overviewBouwman et al. agricultureVan Drecht et al. urban wastewaterFekete et al. hydrologyHarrison et al. increased spatial resolutionYan et al. Changjiang riverVanderStruijk & Kroeze South AmericaYasin et al. AfricaGarnier et al. river nutrient export ratiosBillen et al. watershed auto-/heterotrophy
Acknowlegements and for more details
Access to improved
sanitation?
Connection to sewer system?
Removed Via Wastewater treatment?
Population
Urban
Rural
YesYes
No
Yes
No
100%
Human emission
No improved sanitation
Improved sanitation, but not connected to sewer
Discharged to surface waters
Removed via sewage treatment
No
Human Emissions
Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003), Van Drecht et al., (2010) Global Biogeochem. Cycles
0.5 by 0.5 degree grid cell
Upland crops
Wetland rice
Legumes
Grassland
Inputs-Fertilizer-Animal manure-Biological N fixation-Atmospheric deposition
Nsur=Inputs -Nexp-Nvol
Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003)Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (2005)
Nutrient Balances For Diffuse Source EstimatesOutputs-crop/grass N export (Nexp)Incl. Fodder cropsExcl. residue management
SOIL
Outputs-crop/grass N exportIncl. Fodder cropsExcl. residue management-Ammonia volatilization
Energy crops
River transport of DIN to coast (kg N km-2 y-1)
Seitzinger et al. 2005 Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Integrated development scenarios
Nutrient Exportat River Mouth
Nutrient Sources from Food and
Energy
Policy Options & Costs
Millennium Assessment ScenariosGlobal Regional
Reactive
Proactive
OS
AMTG
GO
NEWS-DIN Performance
Measured DIN yield(kg N km-2 y-1)
Modeled DIN yield(kg N km-2 y-1)
N.S.E.= 0.70
CalibrationValidation
(Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)
1970-2050 Projections of River DIN Export
Global Orchestration Scenario
NEWS-DIN-Predicted DIN Yield (kg N km-2 y-1)
(Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)
Project Co-chairsA.F. Bouwman, PBL, NetherlandsJ. Harrison, Washington State U., USA
Other ParticipantsA. Beusen RIVM, The NetherlandsG. Billen UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), FranceD. Breitburg, SERC, USAF. Dentener JRC, Ispra, ItalyR. Diaz, VIMS, USAP. Döll Univ. Kassell, GermanyH. Envoldesen, UNESCO-IOC, DenmarkJ. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), FranceP. Glibert, UMD, USAV. Ittekkot Ctr. Mar. Trop. Ecology, GermanyR. Kudela, UCSC, USAF.T. Mackenzie Univ. Hawaii, USAM. Meybeck UMR Sisyphe, France S. Seitzinger, IGBP, SwedenR. Smith, USGS, USAC. Vörösmarty Univ. New Hampshire, USAW. Yan Chinese Academy Sciences, China N. Caraco, Institute Ecosystem Studies, USAD. Conley, National Envir. Res. Inst., DenmarkJ. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe, FranceC. Kroeze, Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands
Global NEWSGlobal (N)utrient (E)xport from (W)ater(S)heds