Approaches to aApproaches to aVULNERABILITY AssessmentVULNERABILITY Assessment
Sylvia PrielerSylvia Prieler
May 26, 2004May 26, 2004
Land Use ProjectLand Use Project
IIASAIIASA
Vulnerability approachVulnerability approach
1.1. Define scopeDefine scope
2.2. QualitativeQualitative - - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKgeneral; case specific general; case specific
3.3. QuantitativeQuantitative – – a) Determine INDICATORsa) Determine INDICATORsb) Methodologyb) Methodology
4.4. Strategies to reduce vulnerabilityStrategies to reduce vulnerability
Climatic variability - impact on agricultural
production – vulnerability of the people
Where are people most vulnerable to climatic variability and why?
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Qualitative
PEOPLE’s vulnerability
rural / urban
CLIMATICVARIABILITYa) inter annual variabilityb) extreme events
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
ENVIRONMENTLand availabilitySoil sealing (urbanization)Soil degradation, erosion Water availabilityGroundwater depletionWater pollutionDeforestation
STRESSOR EXPOSURE & Sensitivity
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT& TECHNOLOGYCrop choiceIrrigationInput (fertilizer,…)
ECONOMICGDP/capitarural/urbanAccess to markets
POPULATION STRUCTUREAge distributionEducation
POLICY & INSTITUTIONSInvestment in infrastructureLand tenure
SOCIOECONOMICMacroeconomic impactPolicies (land tenure, irrigation infrastructure)
Key issues Key issues in CONCEPTUAL in CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK
Qualitative
People rural/urban
Agric. Prod. variability
WATERECONOMY
LAND
Climate variability
Policy &INSITUTIONS
People - URBANIZATIONPeople - URBANIZATION
Surplus rural laborestimates are 30% or 120-150 mio.
Income disparity between rural and urban areasper capita annual disposable income: factor 2.2 (1994 and 2000)
Qualitative
MIGRATION to urban areas
Population in 2001:Rural: 796 mio. (62%)Urban: 481 mio. (38%)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
mio
. p
eop
le
rural urban
People - URBANIZATIONPeople - URBANIZATION
Government promotes urbanization WTO membership
Future: increasing urbanization Scenarios: by 2030 at 55 to over 60%
Qualitative
Challenge: loss of cultivated land
good arable land; farmers loose their farmland (estimates at 1.5 mio. every year in last decade)ratio: cultiv. land / rural labor is decreasing
Increasing water demand of urban household
INDICATORSINDICATORS
Proxy indicators for describing agricultural production variability
aridity index; length of growing period; rainfed potential grain production; actual grain production
a) rainfed b) irrigated
Quantitative
INDICATORSINDICATORS
Quantitative
Proxy Indicator VULNERABILITY low ………. …… …. high
PEOPLE urban population share urban…. semi-rural …… rural ECONOMY GDP/capita high ……………………low WATER irrigation irrig. share in cultiv. area high …………………… low water avail. water resources / capita LAND cultivated area
population / cultiv. area rural pop. / cultiv. area rur. labor force / cultiv. area
low …………………….. high
INDICATORS - MethodologyINDICATORS - Methodology
Quantify by ranking across the country Use threshold given by certain ‘sustainability indicators’
cultiv. land / capita (0.4ha/capita)
GIS overlay techniques
formulate relevant questions:LGP < 180 + LGP CV > 5% + irrig.share < 60% + ….Where are these areas?How many people are affected by such conditions?
Quantitative
INDICATORS - MethodologyINDICATORS - Methodology
Total areahyperarid
arid
semiarid
dry subhumid
humid
Agricultural area Population
Quantitative
Distribution of ARIDITY INDEX (average climatic conditions)
Population living in areas classified as Semiarid Environments (0.2<=P/ ET0<0.5)
0.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2
avg
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Are
a [
mio
. sq
km
]
0
5
10
15
20
25
Po
pu
lati
on
[%
]
Area Population
THANK YOUTHANK YOU