Approaches to aApproaches to aVULNERABILITY AssessmentVULNERABILITY Assessment

Sylvia PrielerSylvia Prieler

May 26, 2004May 26, 2004

Land Use ProjectLand Use Project

IIASAIIASA

Vulnerability approachVulnerability approach

1.1. Define scopeDefine scope

2.2. QualitativeQualitative - - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKgeneral; case specific general; case specific

3.3. QuantitativeQuantitative – – a) Determine INDICATORsa) Determine INDICATORsb) Methodologyb) Methodology

4.4. Strategies to reduce vulnerabilityStrategies to reduce vulnerability

Climatic variability - impact on agricultural

production – vulnerability of the people

Where are people most vulnerable to climatic variability and why?

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Qualitative

PEOPLE’s vulnerability

rural / urban

CLIMATICVARIABILITYa) inter annual variabilityb) extreme events

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

ENVIRONMENTLand availabilitySoil sealing (urbanization)Soil degradation, erosion Water availabilityGroundwater depletionWater pollutionDeforestation

STRESSOR EXPOSURE & Sensitivity

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT& TECHNOLOGYCrop choiceIrrigationInput (fertilizer,…)

ECONOMICGDP/capitarural/urbanAccess to markets

POPULATION STRUCTUREAge distributionEducation

POLICY & INSTITUTIONSInvestment in infrastructureLand tenure

SOCIOECONOMICMacroeconomic impactPolicies (land tenure, irrigation infrastructure)

Key issues Key issues in CONCEPTUAL in CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK

Qualitative

People rural/urban

Agric. Prod. variability

WATERECONOMY

LAND

Climate variability

Policy &INSITUTIONS

People - URBANIZATIONPeople - URBANIZATION

Surplus rural laborestimates are 30% or 120-150 mio.

Income disparity between rural and urban areasper capita annual disposable income: factor 2.2 (1994 and 2000)

Qualitative

MIGRATION to urban areas

Population in 2001:Rural: 796 mio. (62%)Urban: 481 mio. (38%)

0

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

mio

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rural urban

People - URBANIZATIONPeople - URBANIZATION

Government promotes urbanization WTO membership

Future: increasing urbanization Scenarios: by 2030 at 55 to over 60%

Qualitative

Challenge: loss of cultivated land

good arable land; farmers loose their farmland (estimates at 1.5 mio. every year in last decade)ratio: cultiv. land / rural labor is decreasing

Increasing water demand of urban household

INDICATORSINDICATORS

Proxy indicators for describing agricultural production variability

aridity index; length of growing period; rainfed potential grain production; actual grain production

a) rainfed b) irrigated

Quantitative

INDICATORSINDICATORS

Quantitative

Proxy Indicator VULNERABILITY low ………. …… …. high

PEOPLE urban population share urban…. semi-rural …… rural ECONOMY GDP/capita high ……………………low WATER irrigation irrig. share in cultiv. area high …………………… low water avail. water resources / capita LAND cultivated area

population / cultiv. area rural pop. / cultiv. area rur. labor force / cultiv. area

low …………………….. high

INDICATORS - MethodologyINDICATORS - Methodology

Quantify by ranking across the country Use threshold given by certain ‘sustainability indicators’

cultiv. land / capita (0.4ha/capita)

GIS overlay techniques

formulate relevant questions:LGP < 180 + LGP CV > 5% + irrig.share < 60% + ….Where are these areas?How many people are affected by such conditions?

Quantitative

INDICATORS - MethodologyINDICATORS - Methodology

Total areahyperarid

arid

semiarid

dry subhumid

humid

Agricultural area Population

Quantitative

Distribution of ARIDITY INDEX (average climatic conditions)

Population living in areas classified as Semiarid Environments (0.2<=P/ ET0<0.5)

0.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2

avg

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Area Population

THANK YOUTHANK YOU