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FPI Analysis: A Latin America Security Agenda for President
Obama
April 13, 2012
Drug traffickers, organized crime elements, and weapons smugglers throughout Latin America
pose a direct threat to the security of the United States. That was the warning issued by Army
General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on a four day visit to Brazil and
Colombia last week. General Dempseys comments come at a critical time. Violence across
Central America is on the rise as drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia are increasingly facing
pressure from government forces.
Until now, however, the Obama administration has taken little notice. The Presidents 2012
strategic defense guidelinementions Latin America only once, stating that the Pentagon will
seek to develop innovative, low-cost, and small-footprint approaches to achieve our security
objectives, relying on exercises, rotational presence, and advisory capabilities in Africa andLatin America. With regards to Central America and Mexico, President Obama has done
nothing more than continued the policies implemented by President Bush. The administration
has given little thought to the next phase of a security partnership with Colombia.
This weekend, President Obama will travel to the coastal city of Cartagena, Colombia, for the
annual Summit of the Americas. Against this backdrop, the President should find his voice and
commit to a true security partnership with nations of the region.
Central America
In 1983, President Ronald Reagan warned that the problems and violence in Central American
nations directly affect the security and the well-being of our own people in the United States.
Although the risks that President Reagan warned of have since changed, a new and more
dangerous threat has emerged: ruthless criminal gangs and well financed drug cartels.
Central Americas recent history provides prime ground for narcotics. Government institutions
are weak and often times distrusted. Military and police budgets are underfunded in response to
decades of war and violent dictatorships. Despite progress in the 1990s towards fair elections,
economic development, and government reform, the region has failed to rapidly alleviate
poverty and gross inequalities for millions of inhabitants. With insufficient military and police
funding, security too deteriorated.
Like the infamous Colombian cartels of the 1990s, international criminal groups began by quickly
exploiting these weak central governments. Funded by billions of dollars in illicit profits, and
armed with modern machine guns, rockets, and submarines, militants quickly overwhelmedlocal law enforcement and underfunded local militaries and police.
Today, these criminal groups operate with near impunity across large swaths of the region, most
notably in the Northern Triangle region of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. For the
people of the region, the consequences are dire. Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, chief of the
U.S. Southern Command, says the unprecedented level of violence in the Northern Triangle
is perhaps the highest in the world. Meanwhile, Honduras nowclaimsthe highest per capita
homicide rate in the world at 82.1 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the United
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Nations, and drug traffickers are believed to hold between 40 and 60 percent of Guatemalan
territory.
Regional instability, caused by government corruption, weak state institutions or insecurity, has a
direct impact on U.S. security. All told, this results in increased emigration to the United States,
greater regional instability, and more powerful international criminal networks.
Yet the administrations approach to the regions rising levels of violence remains inadequate.
President Obamas FY2013 budget includes a 16 percentreductionin counter-narcotics
assistance to Latin America. As Jose Cardenaswrotein Foreign Policys Shadow Government
blog, That is hardly the way to win friends and influence people who are risking their lives
against brutal and uncompromising enemies wealthier and better armed than they are. The
administration must make combating drug violence in Central America a priority. Like
Colombia, this approach must be comprehensive, and address not only rising levels of violence,
but long-term problems related to insufficient economic opportunity and judicial corruption.
Colombia
Over the past decade, Colombia has taken great strides in combating powerful insurgent
groups, most notable the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National
Liberation Army (ELN). Violence across the countryincluding homicides and terrorist attacks
has been reduced by over 50 percent from 2002 levels. As a result of increased security,
Colombias economy is booming, major cities are safe, and millions have fled poverty.
While Colombias government, leaders, and people deserve credit for this remarkable
transformation, U.S. assistance was critical. From FY2000 to FY2012, the United States provided
nearly $8.6 billion in economic and security aid through Plan Colombia, a long-term
commitment to help Bogota reestablish government rule across the country.
Established under President Clinton in 1999, and prioritized under President Bush, the approach
prioritized Colombias military transformed in size, strength, and operational capacity. Equally
important, however, is that fact that U.S. financial assistance allowed Bogota to maintain socialwelfare spending while security operations increased.
The FARC no longer threaten the existence of the government as they did in 2001. Indeed,
recent figures show the groups size has decreased from a high of 20,000 a decade ago to just
8,000 today. However, the insurgency continues to target civilians, economic infrastructure, and
government institutions. Amid this continued threat, Bogota has adopted a new
counterinsurgency approach designed to further reduce FARC numbers by half in two years.
According to General Martin Dempsey, Colombian officials have a remarkably coherent vision
of where they are today and where they need to be.
To further aid Bogotas efforts, General Dempsey announced that U.S. commanders will soon
travel to Colombia to share lessons learned from counterinsurgency missions in Iraq andAfghanistan. This is a good first step, but more can be done. Because of Colombias dense
terrain, aerial reconnaissance is critical to government counterinsurgency efforts. To bolster real-
time information gathering, Bogota has requested UAVs from the Pentagon, yet considering the
difficulty NATO allies have had acquiring such technology, it is highly unlikely such a transfer will
occur.
However, that is not to say that Washington cannot help Bogota in other means. First, the
Pentagon should assist Colombian forces with better intelligence software. Second, the
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Pentagon should work with Colombian Special Forces to better train the already advanced
fighting groups. Finally, as Michael OHanlon writes, Washington should grant Bogota
temporary aid increases to support development efforts for violence-prone parts of the
country. This would assist the governments comprehensive counterinsurgency approach of
winning back support of local populations.
Mexico
Powerful transnational criminal organizations are wreaking havoc across Mexico by undermining
democratic governance, eroding local institutions, and endangering public safety. According
to an official governmentreportfrom January 2012, the five-year death toll of the battle has
reached over 47,500.
To date, U.S. efforts to assist the government of Mexico have been organized through the
Merida Initiative, a cooperative agreement signed by President George W. Bush and Felipe
Calderon in 2007. The program has enabled greater cross-border cooperation between
government officials in Washington and Mexico City, killed or captured dozens of high-level
criminal targets, and bolstered various Mexican government intuitions. However, the program
has been plagued by shortfalls, includingand most notablythe slow disbursement of U.S.
funds. Government testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western
Hemisphere last year revealed that of the $1.5 billion appropriated towards the Merida Initiative
since 2008, only $900 million has been dispersed.
The United States has supported Mexicos desire to enhance its security capabilities andcapacities to counter the rising power of drug cartels and transnational criminal organizations.
However, Mexicos decapitation strategy of eliminating senior level cartel leaders, while
successful, has failed to reduce the countrys overall level of violence. According to General
Charles Jacoby, commander of U.S. Northern Command, The decapitation strategytheyvebeen successful at that. Twenty-two out of the top 37 trafficking figures that the Mexican
government has gone after have been taken off the board But it has not had an appreciable
effectan appreciable, positive effect. Time and again, Cartels have shown the ability to
quickly regroup under new leadership. Moreover, the groups continue to wield powerthroughout halls of power, as they are still able to bribe or corrupt individual government,
military, and police officials.
Domestic drug consumption in the United States continues to fuel insecurity throughout Mexico
and Central America. Vice President Joe Biden was correct to reject the notion that drug
legalization is a solution to regional violence last month. However, the administration has done
little to reduce U.S. demand, and President Obama has failed to depict the harmful impact
Americas ongoing demand is having on the region and the United States.
The United States has a direct interest in assisting the government of Mexico in its battle against
drug cartels and transnational crime organizations. The two countries share a borderthe most
heavily cross in the worldthat spans nearly 2,000 miles and bilateral trade in goods andservices totals nearly $350 billion annually. Washington must do more to address domestic
narcotics demand, and Mexico must do more to address institutional corruption. Together, the
two nations must reassess their strategy and do more to combat this dangerous threat.
Conclusion
If the nations across Latin America are to prevail against ruthless criminal gangs and well
financed drug cartels, they will need assistance from the United States. Yet to date, the
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administration has largely ignored this important region. The United States faces a number of
important challenges at home and abroad, but the threats of the Western Hemisphere cannot
be ignored. When it comes to Latin America, it is high time for President Obama to lead.