Analysis - A Latin America Security Agenda for President Obama

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FPI Analysis: A Latin America Security Agenda for President

Obama

April 13, 2012

Drug traffickers, organized crime elements, and weapons smugglers throughout Latin America

pose a direct threat to the security of the United States. That was the warning issued by Army

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on a four day visit to Brazil and

Colombia last week. General Dempseys comments come at a critical time. Violence across

Central America is on the rise as drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia are increasingly facing

pressure from government forces.

Until now, however, the Obama administration has taken little notice. The Presidents 2012

strategic defense guidelinementions Latin America only once, stating that the Pentagon will

seek to develop innovative, low-cost, and small-footprint approaches to achieve our security

objectives, relying on exercises, rotational presence, and advisory capabilities in Africa andLatin America. With regards to Central America and Mexico, President Obama has done

nothing more than continued the policies implemented by President Bush. The administration

has given little thought to the next phase of a security partnership with Colombia.

This weekend, President Obama will travel to the coastal city of Cartagena, Colombia, for the

annual Summit of the Americas. Against this backdrop, the President should find his voice and

commit to a true security partnership with nations of the region.

Central America

In 1983, President Ronald Reagan warned that the problems and violence in Central American

nations directly affect the security and the well-being of our own people in the United States.

Although the risks that President Reagan warned of have since changed, a new and more

dangerous threat has emerged: ruthless criminal gangs and well financed drug cartels.

Central Americas recent history provides prime ground for narcotics. Government institutions

are weak and often times distrusted. Military and police budgets are underfunded in response to

decades of war and violent dictatorships. Despite progress in the 1990s towards fair elections,

economic development, and government reform, the region has failed to rapidly alleviate

poverty and gross inequalities for millions of inhabitants. With insufficient military and police

funding, security too deteriorated.

Like the infamous Colombian cartels of the 1990s, international criminal groups began by quickly

exploiting these weak central governments. Funded by billions of dollars in illicit profits, and

armed with modern machine guns, rockets, and submarines, militants quickly overwhelmedlocal law enforcement and underfunded local militaries and police.

Today, these criminal groups operate with near impunity across large swaths of the region, most

notably in the Northern Triangle region of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. For the

people of the region, the consequences are dire. Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, chief of the

U.S. Southern Command, says the unprecedented level of violence in the Northern Triangle

is perhaps the highest in the world. Meanwhile, Honduras nowclaimsthe highest per capita

homicide rate in the world at 82.1 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the United
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Nations, and drug traffickers are believed to hold between 40 and 60 percent of Guatemalan

territory.

Regional instability, caused by government corruption, weak state institutions or insecurity, has a

direct impact on U.S. security. All told, this results in increased emigration to the United States,

greater regional instability, and more powerful international criminal networks.

Yet the administrations approach to the regions rising levels of violence remains inadequate.

President Obamas FY2013 budget includes a 16 percentreductionin counter-narcotics

assistance to Latin America. As Jose Cardenaswrotein Foreign Policys Shadow Government

blog, That is hardly the way to win friends and influence people who are risking their lives

against brutal and uncompromising enemies wealthier and better armed than they are. The

administration must make combating drug violence in Central America a priority. Like

Colombia, this approach must be comprehensive, and address not only rising levels of violence,

but long-term problems related to insufficient economic opportunity and judicial corruption.

Colombia

Over the past decade, Colombia has taken great strides in combating powerful insurgent

groups, most notable the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National

Liberation Army (ELN). Violence across the countryincluding homicides and terrorist attacks

has been reduced by over 50 percent from 2002 levels. As a result of increased security,

Colombias economy is booming, major cities are safe, and millions have fled poverty.

While Colombias government, leaders, and people deserve credit for this remarkable

transformation, U.S. assistance was critical. From FY2000 to FY2012, the United States provided

nearly $8.6 billion in economic and security aid through Plan Colombia, a long-term

commitment to help Bogota reestablish government rule across the country.

Established under President Clinton in 1999, and prioritized under President Bush, the approach

prioritized Colombias military transformed in size, strength, and operational capacity. Equally

important, however, is that fact that U.S. financial assistance allowed Bogota to maintain socialwelfare spending while security operations increased.

The FARC no longer threaten the existence of the government as they did in 2001. Indeed,

recent figures show the groups size has decreased from a high of 20,000 a decade ago to just

8,000 today. However, the insurgency continues to target civilians, economic infrastructure, and

government institutions. Amid this continued threat, Bogota has adopted a new

counterinsurgency approach designed to further reduce FARC numbers by half in two years.

According to General Martin Dempsey, Colombian officials have a remarkably coherent vision

of where they are today and where they need to be.

To further aid Bogotas efforts, General Dempsey announced that U.S. commanders will soon

travel to Colombia to share lessons learned from counterinsurgency missions in Iraq andAfghanistan. This is a good first step, but more can be done. Because of Colombias dense

terrain, aerial reconnaissance is critical to government counterinsurgency efforts. To bolster real-

time information gathering, Bogota has requested UAVs from the Pentagon, yet considering the

difficulty NATO allies have had acquiring such technology, it is highly unlikely such a transfer will

occur.

However, that is not to say that Washington cannot help Bogota in other means. First, the

Pentagon should assist Colombian forces with better intelligence software. Second, the
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Pentagon should work with Colombian Special Forces to better train the already advanced

fighting groups. Finally, as Michael OHanlon writes, Washington should grant Bogota

temporary aid increases to support development efforts for violence-prone parts of the

country. This would assist the governments comprehensive counterinsurgency approach of

winning back support of local populations.

Mexico

Powerful transnational criminal organizations are wreaking havoc across Mexico by undermining

democratic governance, eroding local institutions, and endangering public safety. According

to an official governmentreportfrom January 2012, the five-year death toll of the battle has

reached over 47,500.

To date, U.S. efforts to assist the government of Mexico have been organized through the

Merida Initiative, a cooperative agreement signed by President George W. Bush and Felipe

Calderon in 2007. The program has enabled greater cross-border cooperation between

government officials in Washington and Mexico City, killed or captured dozens of high-level

criminal targets, and bolstered various Mexican government intuitions. However, the program

has been plagued by shortfalls, includingand most notablythe slow disbursement of U.S.

funds. Government testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western

Hemisphere last year revealed that of the $1.5 billion appropriated towards the Merida Initiative

since 2008, only $900 million has been dispersed.

The United States has supported Mexicos desire to enhance its security capabilities andcapacities to counter the rising power of drug cartels and transnational criminal organizations.

However, Mexicos decapitation strategy of eliminating senior level cartel leaders, while

successful, has failed to reduce the countrys overall level of violence. According to General

Charles Jacoby, commander of U.S. Northern Command, The decapitation strategytheyvebeen successful at that. Twenty-two out of the top 37 trafficking figures that the Mexican

government has gone after have been taken off the board But it has not had an appreciable

effectan appreciable, positive effect. Time and again, Cartels have shown the ability to

quickly regroup under new leadership. Moreover, the groups continue to wield powerthroughout halls of power, as they are still able to bribe or corrupt individual government,

military, and police officials.

Domestic drug consumption in the United States continues to fuel insecurity throughout Mexico

and Central America. Vice President Joe Biden was correct to reject the notion that drug

legalization is a solution to regional violence last month. However, the administration has done

little to reduce U.S. demand, and President Obama has failed to depict the harmful impact

Americas ongoing demand is having on the region and the United States.

The United States has a direct interest in assisting the government of Mexico in its battle against

drug cartels and transnational crime organizations. The two countries share a borderthe most

heavily cross in the worldthat spans nearly 2,000 miles and bilateral trade in goods andservices totals nearly $350 billion annually. Washington must do more to address domestic

narcotics demand, and Mexico must do more to address institutional corruption. Together, the

two nations must reassess their strategy and do more to combat this dangerous threat.

Conclusion

If the nations across Latin America are to prevail against ruthless criminal gangs and well

financed drug cartels, they will need assistance from the United States. Yet to date, the
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administration has largely ignored this important region. The United States faces a number of

important challenges at home and abroad, but the threats of the Western Hemisphere cannot

be ignored. When it comes to Latin America, it is high time for President Obama to lead.

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Analysis - A Latin America Security Agenda for President Obama