Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change: to what and where?
Manuel Barange Director Fisheries and Aquaculture Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Rome, Italy
[email protected] @Manu_FAO
2015 Paris Agreement includes a long-term adaptation goal, in a manner that does not threaten food production, alongside mitigation goals
• Adaptation is placed and context based
• On-going and iterative
• Adapt to the possible rather than the probable
• Adaptation is not a zero-sum game: it can have very positive results
• Coordinated adaptation essential
• Political commitment + Societal support + Industry leadership
Institutional Adaptation
Livelihoods Adaptation
Risk Reduction and
Resilience
FAO Adaptation Toolbox
• Productivity changes
• Distributional changes
• Seasonality changes
Country climate change indicatorsApproach
Aim:
For the set of countries for which catch potential projections are available, construct an indicator that indicates each country’s relative risk of being negatively impacted by the effect of climate change on its marine fisheries
Climate change risk VulnerabilityImpact on marine
fisheries
Nutritional dependence on fish
Economic dependence on fisheries
Development score
- Fish in diet- Food insecurity
- Fish in GDP- Fish in Trade- Fish in employment
- Social and economic- Governance indicator
Aim:
For the set of countries for which catch potential projections are available, construct an indicator that indicates each country’s relative risk of being negatively impacted by the effect of climate change on its marine fisheries
Climate change risk VulnerabilityImpact on marine
fisheries
Impact on fisheries score is equivalent to the average estimate for % change in catch potential under the projection scenarios outlined in Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture (FAO 2018)
Country climate change indicatorsApproach
Results – DBEM 2050 2.6
Angola
Antigua and BarbudaArgentina
Aruba
Australia
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bermuda
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Cabo Verde
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Cayman Islands
Chile
China
Colombia
Comoros
Congo
Congo, Dem. Rep. of the
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Cuba
Curaçao Côte d'Ivoire
Denmark
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Falkland Is.(Malvinas)
Faroe Islands
France
French Polynesia
Gabon
Gambia
GermanyGhana
Greenland
GrenadaGuadeloupe
Guam
Guatemala
GuineaGuinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Iceland
IndiaIndonesia
Ireland
JamaicaJapan
Kenya
Kiribati
Korea, Dem. People's Rep
Korea, Republic of
Liberia
Madagascar
MalaysiaMaldives Marshall Islands
Martinique
MauritaniaMauritius
Mayotte
Mexico
Micronesia, Fed.States of
MontserratMorocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Netherlands
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Panama
Papua New Guinea
PeruPhilippines
Portugal
Russian Federation
Réunion
Saint Helena
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint LuciaSaint Vincent/Grenadines
Samoa
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Suriname
Taiwan Province of China
Tanzania, United Rep. of
Thailand Timor-Leste
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Turks and Caicos Is.
Tuvalu
United Kingdom
United States of America
Uruguay
Vanuatu
Venezuela, Boliv Rep of
Viet Nam
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1
Imp
act
sco
re
Vulnerability scoreVulnerability
Imp
act
sco
re
Results – DBEM 2050 2.6
Economic and Nutritional Vulnerability
Results – DBEM 2050 2.6
Potential Maximum Catch Change
Results – DBEM 2050 2.6
Overall Climate Change Risk (on Fisheries)
• Bangladesh• Benin• Cambodia• Cameroon• Gambia• Guinea• Guinea Bissau• Haiti• Kiribati• Liberia• Madagascar• Marshall Is.• Mauritania• Mozambique• Salomon Is.• Sao Tome and Principe• Senegal• Sierra Leone• Timor Leste• Togo• Vanuatu
Climate change riskPriority Countries for Adaptation
Change in M
SY
(%
)
Eastern Caribbean
BenguelaCurrent
Chile
Myanmar
Malawi
GEF-funded Adaptation
FAO and partners Adaptation
St Lucia
S. Africa
Philippines
Bangladesh
NAP support
Kenya
Thailand
Uganda
Uruguay
Viet Nam
Zambia
EAF Nansen Programme
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture – Climate Change Adaptation Portfolio
• Bangladesh• Benin• Cambodia• Cameroon• Gambia• Guinea• Guinea Bissau• Haiti• Kiribati• Liberia• Madagascar• Marshall Is.• Mauritania• Mozambique• Salomon Is.• Sao Tome and Principe• Senegal• Sierra Leone• Timor Leste• Togo• Vanuatu
Climate change riskPriority Countries for Adaptation
Ready to work with positive partners to climate-proof fisheries