Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change: to what and where?

Manuel Barange Director Fisheries and Aquaculture Division

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Rome, Italy

Manuel.barange@fao.org @Manu_FAO

2015 Paris Agreement includes a long-term adaptation goal, in a manner that does not threaten food production, alongside mitigation goals

• Adaptation is placed and context based

• On-going and iterative

• Adapt to the possible rather than the probable

• Adaptation is not a zero-sum game: it can have very positive results

• Coordinated adaptation essential

• Political commitment + Societal support + Industry leadership

Institutional Adaptation

Livelihoods Adaptation

Risk Reduction and

Resilience

FAO Adaptation Toolbox

• Productivity changes

• Distributional changes

• Seasonality changes

Country climate change indicatorsApproach

Aim:

For the set of countries for which catch potential projections are available, construct an indicator that indicates each country’s relative risk of being negatively impacted by the effect of climate change on its marine fisheries

Climate change risk VulnerabilityImpact on marine

fisheries

Nutritional dependence on fish

Economic dependence on fisheries

Development score

- Fish in diet- Food insecurity

- Fish in GDP- Fish in Trade- Fish in employment

- Social and economic- Governance indicator

Aim:

For the set of countries for which catch potential projections are available, construct an indicator that indicates each country’s relative risk of being negatively impacted by the effect of climate change on its marine fisheries

Climate change risk VulnerabilityImpact on marine

fisheries

Impact on fisheries score is equivalent to the average estimate for % change in catch potential under the projection scenarios outlined in Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture (FAO 2018)

Country climate change indicatorsApproach

Results – DBEM 2050 2.6

Angola

Antigua and BarbudaArgentina

Aruba

Australia

Bahamas

Bangladesh

Barbados

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bermuda

Brazil

Brunei Darussalam

Cabo Verde

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Cayman Islands

Chile

China

Colombia

Comoros

Congo

Congo, Dem. Rep. of the

Cook Islands

Costa Rica

Cuba

Curaçao Côte d'Ivoire

Denmark

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Falkland Is.(Malvinas)

Faroe Islands

France

French Polynesia

Gabon

Gambia

GermanyGhana

Greenland

GrenadaGuadeloupe

Guam

Guatemala

GuineaGuinea-Bissau

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Iceland

IndiaIndonesia

Ireland

JamaicaJapan

Kenya

Kiribati

Korea, Dem. People's Rep

Korea, Republic of

Liberia

Madagascar

MalaysiaMaldives Marshall Islands

Martinique

MauritaniaMauritius

Mayotte

Mexico

Micronesia, Fed.States of

MontserratMorocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

Namibia

Netherlands

New Caledonia

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Nigeria

Norway

Oman

Pakistan

Palau

Panama

Papua New Guinea

PeruPhilippines

Portugal

Russian Federation

Réunion

Saint Helena

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint LuciaSaint Vincent/Grenadines

Samoa

Sao Tome and Principe

Senegal

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Singapore

Solomon Islands

Somalia

South Africa

Spain

Sri Lanka

Suriname

Taiwan Province of China

Tanzania, United Rep. of

Thailand Timor-Leste

Togo

Tonga

Trinidad and Tobago

Turks and Caicos Is.

Tuvalu

United Kingdom

United States of America

Uruguay

Vanuatu

Venezuela, Boliv Rep of

Viet Nam

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0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

Imp

act

sco

re

Vulnerability scoreVulnerability

Imp

act

sco

re

Results – DBEM 2050 2.6

Economic and Nutritional Vulnerability

Results – DBEM 2050 2.6

Potential Maximum Catch Change

Results – DBEM 2050 2.6

Overall Climate Change Risk (on Fisheries)

• Bangladesh• Benin• Cambodia• Cameroon• Gambia• Guinea• Guinea Bissau• Haiti• Kiribati• Liberia• Madagascar• Marshall Is.• Mauritania• Mozambique• Salomon Is.• Sao Tome and Principe• Senegal• Sierra Leone• Timor Leste• Togo• Vanuatu

Climate change riskPriority Countries for Adaptation

Change in M

SY

(%

)

Eastern Caribbean

BenguelaCurrent

Chile

Myanmar

Malawi

GEF-funded Adaptation

FAO and partners Adaptation

St Lucia

S. Africa

Philippines

Bangladesh

NAP support

Kenya

Thailand

Uganda

Uruguay

Viet Nam

Zambia

EAF Nansen Programme

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture – Climate Change Adaptation Portfolio

• Bangladesh• Benin• Cambodia• Cameroon• Gambia• Guinea• Guinea Bissau• Haiti• Kiribati• Liberia• Madagascar• Marshall Is.• Mauritania• Mozambique• Salomon Is.• Sao Tome and Principe• Senegal• Sierra Leone• Timor Leste• Togo• Vanuatu

Climate change riskPriority Countries for Adaptation

Ready to work with positive partners to climate-proof fisheries