Abuja FCT
Building a Thriving City that Contributes to Nigeria’s Development Success
OutlineUrbanization in Nigeria
Abuja FCT Population Dynamics
Population and Development: The Crucial Links
What Can We Do?
Urbanization in Nigeria
Photo by E Herrera
4
Nigeria has experienced and is still experiencing one of the fastest rates of urbanization in the world.
With growth rates in urban areas almost double those in rural areas.
Growth rates are even higher in Abuja FCT, as people flock to the city in search of greener pastures.
Photo by Shiraz Chakera
5World Population Prospects 2009
Nigeria Urban/Rural Population
Urban Population
Rural Population
19501960
19701980
19902000
20102020
20300
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Popu
latio
n (in
mill
ions
)
After 2010, Nigeria became more urban than rural
6
Focusing on the urban population is key to Nigeria meeting its overall economic and development goals.
Nigeria will not be able to meet its MDGs or Vision 2020 without addressing the growing urban population.
Photo by: Bonnie NU
RHI
Presentation by Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Nigeria 2005
Nigeria has a Vision for Urban Development
The National Urban Development Policy calls for: Providing adequate shelter for all Poverty reduction and economic empowerment Ensuring environmental sustainability Good governance and socio economic development
“The Urbanization process is irreversible in Nigeria and must therefore be turned into opportunities for growth”
8
However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.
One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities.
This creates a situation where the government is unable to: Maintain and expand infrastructure Provide adequate, high quality social services Create an environment that is conducive for economic development
Photo by: Bonnie NU
RHI
Abuja FCT’s Urban Population
Photo by E Herrera
10
Let’s focus on 2 urban areas
Current Situation1.4 million total population in these 2 areas
32% of married women use a modern method of family planning
More than 100 maternal deaths per year
On average, each woman has just under 4 children
0–45–9
10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–5970–7475–79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent
Age
in Y
ears
Source:
Abuja Population Structure
12
FemaleMale
38% of population are under age 15
0–45–9
10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–5970–7475–79
80+
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent Population
Age
in Y
ears
Source:
Dependency Burden2011 Population of Abuja, projected using the 2006 census
13
Female
Every adult supports 1.5 dependents
Male
Population and Development
Photo by E Herrera
15
A much larger working age population comparedto the population in young dependent ages was akey factor in the Asian development miracle.
As families became smaller, dependency significantly declined.
Greater emphasis on population quality rather than quantity meant increased investments by the state
More and better educational opportunities emerged Greater productivity Investment in modern agriculture
Population and Economic Development are Linked
Photo by Neajjean
.
16
Vicious Circle
High Rates of Fertility
Very Young Population with many Dependent Children
Large Groups of Women Entering Reproductive Age
More Women Having Children
Larger Populations to be Supported
Need for More Infrastructure and Services to Meet the Needs of
the Population
More and More Resources Needed
Struggle to Keep up with Current Services, Inability
to Expand
Lack of Opportunity
Poverty
Gender InequalityPoor Health
Illiteracy
Maternal Mortality
A key component to the success of the Asian tigers was
investment in family planning
This led to improved quality of life and escalated economic development
18Source: NURHI/MLE Household Survey, 2011 and DHS and RHS Surveys
Modern Contraceptive UsePercentage of Married Women using a Modern Contraceptive Method
Abuja FCT Urban Nigeria
Jordan Morocco Indonesia Thailand0
20
40
60
80
100
3226
42
55 57
80
19
1 in 6 of the poorest women have an unmet need for family planning
Only 1 in 5 women want a child in the next 2 years
Only 1 in 6 men want a child in the next 2 years
Almost half of the women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks
Couples in Abuja FCT Want to Space their Births
Photo by Neajjean
.
RAPID
Abuja FCT has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its population
Scenario 1: Maintain Current Trends
What if things continued as they are now?
Scenario 2: Investment in Family Planning
What will happen if there is an investment in family planning and unmet need is met?
2 Potential Futures:
21
Abuja FCT Kaduna Ilorin Ibadan Benin Zaria
NURHI aims to increase family planning by 20 percentage points in each city by providing quality services that couples can access.
Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) is a Project that is Supporting Quality Family Planning in 6 Nigerian Cities:
Photo by Neajjean
.
22
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1,519,648
5,624,6225,093,598
Popu
latio
n in
Tho
usan
ds
Total PopulationsActual and projected total populations of the 2 Abuja FCT areas
Abuja NURHI Scenario
Abuja Base Scenario
Difference of more than half a million people
23Photos by Bonnie NURHI
Impacts on Different Sectors
Health Education Infrastructure
Nigeria National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development: January 2004
“All stakeholders need to appreciate the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like housing, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, gender concerns, food security and the security of lives and property.”
HealthPhoto by Carla G
omo
26
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1408
5393
4903
Num
ber o
f Nur
ses
WHO 1:1,000 Recommendation
Number of Nurses Required
Abuja NURHI Scenario
Abuja Base Scenario
Assuming the WHO standard of 1 nurse per 1,000 population
27
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
Heal
th E
xpen
ditu
res (
in b
illio
n Na
ira)
6.7
6.1
Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory 2002
Health Resources RequiredBased on Per Capita Health Spending
Abuja Base Scenario
Abuja NURHI Scenario
67.1
mill
ion
Nai
ra s
aved
20
11–2
015
5.9 billion Naira saved 2011–2035
Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory
NURHI Health Savings 2015 & 2035Comparison between actual and recommended per capita spending
Cumulative savings generated by achieving the NURHI Scenario instead of
the Base Scenario
Per Capita Spending in Health
2011–2015 Savings 2011–2035 Savings
Actual:1,200 Naira 67.1million 5.9 billion
Recommended:5,100 Naira 285 million 25.2 billion
“The key challenges to reducing infant mortality include population, declining resources and wide geographic variations.”
Nigeria Millennium Development Goals: Report 2010
Major challenges to reducing maternal mortality include “a dearth of skilled personnel and a shortage of family planning facilities”.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
Year Abuja Base Projection
Abuja NURHI Projection
2011 62 622015 61 512035 55 46
Risky BirthsPercentage of births with any risk factor
High risk births can result in maternal and infant deaths and are very expensive to attend to at health facilities.
31
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mat
erna
l Dea
ths
321
Maternal Deaths Averted
Abuja Base ScenarioAbuja NURHI Scenario
1,326 Maternal Deaths Averted 2011–2035
72 M
ater
nal
Dea
ths
Aver
ted
201
1–20
15 222
32
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Num
ber o
f Und
er 5
Dea
ths
Under 5 Deaths AvertedAverted Deaths in Children 0-4 years
Abuja Base ScenarioAbuja NURHI Scenario
88,551 Under 5 Deaths Averted 2011–2035
4,11
9 U
nder
5
Dea
ths
Aver
ted
20
11–2
015
13,541
19,427
Infant Mortality RateNumber of deaths to babies less than 1 year old for every 1,000 births
Year Abuja Base Projection
Abuja NURHI Projection
2011 72 722015 70 472035 56 34
Infant Deaths Averted:2,691 between 2011–201543,766 between 2011–2035
Health Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduce the number of maternal, infant and child deaths
Free up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve quality and access to essential health services
Reduce the strain on health staff and infrastructure
Increase in life expectancy
EducationPhoto by Carla G
omo
36
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
230,634
735,144
582,521
Num
ber o
f Prim
ary
Aged
Chi
ldre
nPrimary School Aged ChildrenNumber of Children Ages 6–11
Abuja NURHI Scenario
Abuja Base Scenario
37
2011 2020 2030 20350
10,000
20,000
30,000
7,688
24,505
19,417
Num
ber o
f Prim
ary
Teac
hers
Re
quire
d
Based on Ministry of Education standards
Primary Teachers Required
Abuja NURHI Scenario
Abuja Base Scenario
38
Grad-uates plus NCE67%
Below NCE18%
15%Unspecified
Previous slide showed the number of teachers required based on this same distribution. It would take additional effort to make sure that all teachers are qualified.
National Bureau of Statistics: Social Statistics in Nigeria 2009
Quality of Primary TeachersAbuja FCT
39
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
354,197
1.2
1.0
Num
ber o
f Bas
ic E
duca
tion
Aged
Ch
ildre
n (in
mill
ions
)Basic Education Aged ChildrenNumber of Children Ages 6–15
Abuja NURHI Scenario
Abuja Base Scenario
Education Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduce the strain on teachers and infrastructure
Assist Abuja FCT in meeting the Education Sector goal of universal basic education
Free up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the global economy
Infrastructure
Photo by E Herrera
42
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
0.4
1.41.3
Num
ber o
f Hou
ses R
equi
red
(in m
illio
ns)
Spectrum Projections using data from NURHI/MLE Baseline Data, 2011
Housing RequirementsAverage household size of 4.0 people
Abuja NURHI Scenario
Abuja Base Scenario
43
20252026
20272028
20292030
20312032
20332034
20350
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Num
ber o
f New
Jobs
Req
uire
d
Spectrum Projection
New Jobs Required
Abuja Base ScenarioAbuja NURHI Scenario
88,071 fewer new jobs required 2025–2035
44
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
305
1,129.14
1,022,539,799
Annu
al K
ilogr
ams o
f Was
te P
rodu
ced
(mill
ions
)
Annual Production of Waste (in kilograms)
Babayemi et al. 2009
Abuja NURHI Projection
Abuja Base Projection
Solid
Was
te G
ener
ation
Photos by Bonnie NURHI
45
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
122
675611,231,760
Tota
l Wat
er P
er C
apita
Per
Day
(m
il-
lions
)
Urban Water Targets from Vision 2020(80 liters in 2011, 100 liters by 2015, 120 liters by 2020)
Report of the Vision 2020, July 2009
Abuja NURHI Projection
Abuja Base Projection
Photo By: Bonnie NURHI
Wat
er S
uppl
ies
Photos by Bonnie NURHI
Infrastructure Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduce the strain on housing requirements
Greater likelihood of meeting water and sanitation needs of the Abuja FCT population, thereby improving health and well-being
Slower growth of numbers of new entrants into the working age population so that adequate strategies for job creation can be implemented, reducing the number unemployed
Likely lower the number of people living in temporary housing or slum areas
What Can We Do?
Photo by Neajjean
Couples in Abuja FCT want to space or limit their children, they want family planning
Photos by Bonnie NURHI
Policy ResponseImproving access and utilization of high quality family planning services will:
Enable couples to space or limit their children…….
Result in improved health of the population and a reduction in maternal and infant deaths…….
Thereby contribute towards Abuja FCT becoming the pace setter in Nigeria’s development.
50
Invest more in family planning and make it a budgeting priority: Sustain the family planning budget line and guarantee the timely
release of the budget.
Ensure the removal of operational bottlenecks to quality FP programmes
Invest in activities that support high quality family planning services
Support family planning by speaking out and encouraging others to do the same Link family planning benefits to other development issues and
programmes
What Steps Can We Take Right Now?
51
Link the benefits of family planning to educational programming Ensure the teaching of the family life and HIV/AIDS
curriculum in all schools
Invest in girl child education This delays early pregnancy and childbirth and reduces
risky births
What Steps Can We Take Right Now?
52
Lend your voice towards supporting family planning
Talk about how family planning contributes towards the ability to provide essential services for the population and meet existing strategic commitments
What Steps Can We Take Right Now?