Abuja FCT Building a Thriving City that Contributes to Nigeria’s Development Success

Abuja FCT

Building a Thriving City that Contributes to Nigeria’s Development Success

OutlineUrbanization in Nigeria

Abuja FCT Population Dynamics

Population and Development: The Crucial Links

What Can We Do?

Urbanization in Nigeria

Photo by E Herrera

4

Nigeria has experienced and is still experiencing one of the fastest rates of urbanization in the world.

With growth rates in urban areas almost double those in rural areas.

Growth rates are even higher in Abuja FCT, as people flock to the city in search of greener pastures.

Photo by Shiraz Chakera

5World Population Prospects 2009

Nigeria Urban/Rural Population

Urban Population

Rural Population

19501960

19701980

19902000

20102020

20300

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Popu

latio

n (in

mill

ions

)

After 2010, Nigeria became more urban than rural

6

Focusing on the urban population is key to Nigeria meeting its overall economic and development goals.

Nigeria will not be able to meet its MDGs or Vision 2020 without addressing the growing urban population.

Photo by: Bonnie NU

RHI

Presentation by Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Nigeria 2005

Nigeria has a Vision for Urban Development

The National Urban Development Policy calls for: Providing adequate shelter for all Poverty reduction and economic empowerment Ensuring environmental sustainability Good governance and socio economic development

“The Urbanization process is irreversible in Nigeria and must therefore be turned into opportunities for growth”

8

However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.

One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities.

This creates a situation where the government is unable to: Maintain and expand infrastructure Provide adequate, high quality social services Create an environment that is conducive for economic development

Photo by: Bonnie NU

RHI

Abuja FCT’s Urban Population

Photo by E Herrera

10

Let’s focus on 2 urban areas

Current Situation1.4 million total population in these 2 areas

32% of married women use a modern method of family planning

More than 100 maternal deaths per year

On average, each woman has just under 4 children

0–45–9

10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–5970–7475–79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

Percent

Age

in Y

ears

Source:

Abuja Population Structure

12

FemaleMale

38% of population are under age 15

0–45–9

10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–5970–7475–79

80+

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Percent Population

Age

in Y

ears

Source:

Dependency Burden2011 Population of Abuja, projected using the 2006 census

13

Female

Every adult supports 1.5 dependents

Male

Population and Development

Photo by E Herrera

15

A much larger working age population comparedto the population in young dependent ages was akey factor in the Asian development miracle.

As families became smaller, dependency significantly declined.

Greater emphasis on population quality rather than quantity meant increased investments by the state

More and better educational opportunities emerged Greater productivity Investment in modern agriculture

Population and Economic Development are Linked

Photo by Neajjean

.

16

Vicious Circle

High Rates of Fertility

Very Young Population with many Dependent Children

Large Groups of Women Entering Reproductive Age

More Women Having Children

Larger Populations to be Supported

Need for More Infrastructure and Services to Meet the Needs of

the Population

More and More Resources Needed

Struggle to Keep up with Current Services, Inability

to Expand

Lack of Opportunity

Poverty

Gender InequalityPoor Health

Illiteracy

Maternal Mortality

A key component to the success of the Asian tigers was

investment in family planning

This led to improved quality of life and escalated economic development

18Source: NURHI/MLE Household Survey, 2011 and DHS and RHS Surveys

Modern Contraceptive UsePercentage of Married Women using a Modern Contraceptive Method

Abuja FCT Urban Nigeria

Jordan Morocco Indonesia Thailand0

20

40

60

80

100

3226

42

55 57

80

19

1 in 6 of the poorest women have an unmet need for family planning

Only 1 in 5 women want a child in the next 2 years

Only 1 in 6 men want a child in the next 2 years

Almost half of the women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks

Couples in Abuja FCT Want to Space their Births

Photo by Neajjean

.

RAPID

Abuja FCT has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its population

Scenario 1: Maintain Current Trends

What if things continued as they are now?

Scenario 2: Investment in Family Planning

What will happen if there is an investment in family planning and unmet need is met?

2 Potential Futures:

21

Abuja FCT Kaduna Ilorin Ibadan Benin Zaria

NURHI aims to increase family planning by 20 percentage points in each city by providing quality services that couples can access.

Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) is a Project that is Supporting Quality Family Planning in 6 Nigerian Cities:

Photo by Neajjean

.

22

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1,519,648

5,624,6225,093,598

Popu

latio

n in

Tho

usan

ds

Total PopulationsActual and projected total populations of the 2 Abuja FCT areas

Abuja NURHI Scenario

Abuja Base Scenario

Difference of more than half a million people

23Photos by Bonnie NURHI

Impacts on Different Sectors

Health Education Infrastructure

Nigeria National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development: January 2004

“All stakeholders need to appreciate the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like housing, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, gender concerns, food security and the security of lives and property.”

HealthPhoto by Carla G

omo

26

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1408

5393

4903

Num

ber o

f Nur

ses

WHO 1:1,000 Recommendation

Number of Nurses Required


Abuja Base Scenario

Assuming the WHO standard of 1 nurse per 1,000 population

27

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

Heal

th E

xpen

ditu

res (

in b

illio

n Na

ira)

6.7

6.1

Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory 2002

Health Resources RequiredBased on Per Capita Health Spending

Abuja Base Scenario


67.1

mill

ion

Nai

ra s

aved

20

11–2

015

5.9 billion Naira saved 2011–2035

Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory

NURHI Health Savings 2015 & 2035Comparison between actual and recommended per capita spending

Cumulative savings generated by achieving the NURHI Scenario instead of

the Base Scenario

Per Capita Spending in Health

2011–2015 Savings 2011–2035 Savings

Actual:1,200 Naira 67.1million 5.9 billion

Recommended:5,100 Naira 285 million 25.2 billion

“The key challenges to reducing infant mortality include population, declining resources and wide geographic variations.”

Nigeria Millennium Development Goals: Report 2010

Major challenges to reducing maternal mortality include “a dearth of skilled personnel and a shortage of family planning facilities”.

Photo by Bonnie NURHI

Year Abuja Base Projection

Abuja NURHI Projection

2011 62 622015 61 512035 55 46

Risky BirthsPercentage of births with any risk factor

High risk births can result in maternal and infant deaths and are very expensive to attend to at health facilities.

31

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mat

erna

l Dea

ths

321

Maternal Deaths Averted

Abuja Base ScenarioAbuja NURHI Scenario

1,326 Maternal Deaths Averted 2011–2035

72 M

ater

nal

Dea

ths

Aver

ted

201

1–20

15 222

32

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Num

ber o

f Und

er 5

Dea

ths

Under 5 Deaths AvertedAverted Deaths in Children 0-4 years


88,551 Under 5 Deaths Averted 2011–2035

4,11

9 U

nder

5

Dea

ths

Aver

ted

20

11–2

015

13,541

19,427

Infant Mortality RateNumber of deaths to babies less than 1 year old for every 1,000 births

Year Abuja Base Projection


2011 72 722015 70 472035 56 34

Infant Deaths Averted:2,691 between 2011–201543,766 between 2011–2035

Health Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

Reduce the number of maternal, infant and child deaths

Free up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve quality and access to essential health services

Reduce the strain on health staff and infrastructure

Increase in life expectancy

EducationPhoto by Carla G

omo

36

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

230,634

735,144

582,521

Num

ber o

f Prim

ary

Aged

Chi

ldre

nPrimary School Aged ChildrenNumber of Children Ages 6–11


Abuja Base Scenario

37

2011 2020 2030 20350

10,000

20,000

30,000

7,688

24,505

19,417

Num

ber o

f Prim

ary

Teac

hers

Re

quire

d

Based on Ministry of Education standards

Primary Teachers Required


Abuja Base Scenario

38

Grad-uates plus NCE67%

Below NCE18%

15%Unspecified

Previous slide showed the number of teachers required based on this same distribution. It would take additional effort to make sure that all teachers are qualified.

National Bureau of Statistics: Social Statistics in Nigeria 2009

Quality of Primary TeachersAbuja FCT

39

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

354,197

1.2

1.0

Num

ber o

f Bas

ic E

duca

tion

Aged

Ch

ildre

n (in

mill

ions

)Basic Education Aged ChildrenNumber of Children Ages 6–15


Abuja Base Scenario

Education Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

Reduce the strain on teachers and infrastructure

Assist Abuja FCT in meeting the Education Sector goal of universal basic education

Free up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the global economy

Infrastructure

Photo by E Herrera

42

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

0.4

1.41.3

Num

ber o

f Hou

ses R

equi

red

(in m

illio

ns)

Spectrum Projections using data from NURHI/MLE Baseline Data, 2011

Housing RequirementsAverage household size of 4.0 people


Abuja Base Scenario

43

20252026

20272028

20292030

20312032

20332034

20350

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Num

ber o

f New

Jobs

Req

uire

d

Spectrum Projection

New Jobs Required


88,071 fewer new jobs required 2025–2035

44

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

305

1,129.14

1,022,539,799

Annu

al K

ilogr

ams o

f Was

te P

rodu

ced

(mill

ions

)

Annual Production of Waste (in kilograms)

Babayemi et al. 2009


Abuja Base Projection

Solid

Was

te G

ener

ation

Photos by Bonnie NURHI

45

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

122

675611,231,760

Tota

l Wat

er P

er C

apita

Per

Day

(m

il-

lions

)

Urban Water Targets from Vision 2020(80 liters in 2011, 100 liters by 2015, 120 liters by 2020)

Report of the Vision 2020, July 2009


Abuja Base Projection

Photo By: Bonnie NURHI

Wat

er S

uppl

ies


Infrastructure Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

Reduce the strain on housing requirements

Greater likelihood of meeting water and sanitation needs of the Abuja FCT population, thereby improving health and well-being

Slower growth of numbers of new entrants into the working age population so that adequate strategies for job creation can be implemented, reducing the number unemployed

Likely lower the number of people living in temporary housing or slum areas

What Can We Do?

Photo by Neajjean

Couples in Abuja FCT want to space or limit their children, they want family planning


Policy ResponseImproving access and utilization of high quality family planning services will:

Enable couples to space or limit their children…….

Result in improved health of the population and a reduction in maternal and infant deaths…….

Thereby contribute towards Abuja FCT becoming the pace setter in Nigeria’s development.

50

Invest more in family planning and make it a budgeting priority: Sustain the family planning budget line and guarantee the timely

release of the budget.

Ensure the removal of operational bottlenecks to quality FP programmes

Invest in activities that support high quality family planning services

Support family planning by speaking out and encouraging others to do the same Link family planning benefits to other development issues and

programmes

What Steps Can We Take Right Now?

51

Link the benefits of family planning to educational programming Ensure the teaching of the family life and HIV/AIDS

curriculum in all schools

Invest in girl child education This delays early pregnancy and childbirth and reduces

risky births


52

Lend your voice towards supporting family planning

Talk about how family planning contributes towards the ability to provide essential services for the population and meet existing strategic commitments


Documents

Abuja FCT Building a Thriving City that Contributes to Nigeria’s Development Success