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NEWS RELEASEProvincial Party Standings, March 2010
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES NARROW NDP LEAD
Manitoba NDP Lose Ground To Progressive Conservatives, ButRemains First Choice For Manitoba Voters
Winnipeg The New Democratic Party remains the most popular party in the
province, yet their lead over the opposition Progressive Conservatives has
narrowed especially since the release of their recent budget, a new Winnipeg
Free Press/Probe Research poll finds.
Premier Greg Selinger and the NDPs lead over the Hugh McFadyen-led
Progressive Conservatives has been cut from 10 percentage points to three
within the past three months. Slightly more than four-in-ten Manitoba voters (42%,
down from 47% in December) now say they would vote for an NDP candidate ifan election were held tomorrow. The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile,
have experienced a slight increase in support (39%, up from 37% in December).
The Liberals under Jon Gerrard presently enjoy the support of just one-in-ten
voters (11%, unchanged from December). Other parties not represented in the
Legislature enjoy the backing of eight percent of decided voters (+4% from
December). Eighteen percent of voters were unable or unwilling to express a
party preference at this time.
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Provincial Party Support
Base: All respondents
1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most likely to support?
(n=1,003)
48%46%
43%41%
46%44%
45% 47%
42%
38%36%
39%
43%
36% 36% 38% 37%
39%
12% 13% 13%
10%
13% 14% 12% 11% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2007 Election June 2008(n=1000)
Sept. 2008(n=1000)
Dec. 2008(n=1000)
Mar. 2009(n=1000)
June 2009(n=1000)
Sept. 2009(n=1000)
Dec. 2009(n=1000)
Mar. 2010(n=1,000)
NDP PC Liberal
NDP Lose Ground After Releasing Budget
An analysis of voter preference taken before and after the release of the March
23rd provincial budget shows slight momentum towards the Progressive
Conservatives and away from the New Democrats following the tabling of the
governments annual spending plan.
Among Manitobans surveyed prior to the release of the budget, the NDP
enjoyed a seven percentage point advantage over their Progressive
Conservative rivals (44%, versus 37% respectively), with the Liberals trailing well-
behind at 12 percent and other parties enjoying eight percent support. Following
the release of the budget on March 23, however, the two main parties moved
into a deadlock with 41 percent support for both the NDP and PCs (post-budget,
Liberal support decreased slightly to 11% and other parties remained unchanged
at eight percent).
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Impact of Recent Manitoba Budget on
Provincial Voting Intentions
Base: All respondents
Given the longstanding popularity of the NDP and the fact the party enjoyed a
significant lead (10%) over the PCs in December, it is not surprising that it
continues to be the first choice among Manitoba voters, commented ProbeResearch president Scott MacKay. However, the PCs seem to have made up
ground and the political landscape in Manitoba might be starting to look more
competitive than it was six months ago.
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Battle Of The Sexes At The Ballot Box
The increase in support for the Progressive Conservatives can be at least partially
attributed to some male voters moving from the NDP and towards the PCs.
Women, meanwhile, continue to favour the New Democrats and prefer this
party over the Progressive Conservatives by a double-digit margin.
Provincial Party Support- By Gender -
Base: All respondents
1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most likely to support?(n=1,003)
0%
20%
40%
60%
NDP PC Liberal
49%
34%
13%
49%
33%
10%
Dec. 2009
Mar. 2010
0%
20%
40%
60%
NDP PC Liberal
45%40%
10%
36%
45%
13%
Dec. 2009
Mar. 2010
WOMEN (N=517)MEN (N=486)
Forty-five percent of male voters (up from 40% in December) now prefer the
Progressive Conservatives. Support for the NDP among men, meanwhile, has
decreased by nine percentage points in the past three months (from 45% in
December to 36% in March).
Nearly one-half of women (49%), on the other hand, voice support for the New
Democrats, which is unchanged from December. Female voter support for the
PCs (33%, -1% versus December) and Liberals (10%, -3% versus December) is also
basically unchanged since our last sounding on this question.
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Other notable variations among the various sub-populations surveyed (which are
highlighted in the table below) reveal:
The NDPs advantage among younger adults has narrowed, with just 38
percent of adults aged 18-34 years (down from 53% in December) now
indicating that they support this party versus 34 percent (+5%) who now
prefer the PCs.
The competition for voters aged 35-54 years also remains tight: 42 percent
of those in this demographic category prefer the NDP compared to 39
percent who back the PCs and nine percent who would cast ballots for
the Liberals. (In December, 43 percent of those aged 35-54 years backed
the PCs, 41 percent supported the NDP and 13 preferred the Liberals).
The Progressive Conservatives have made gains among post-secondarygraduates (40%, up from 34% in December) and middle-income earners
(40% among those earning $30,000-$59,999/year, up from 33%).
Support for the NDP among university and college-educated voters has
decreased in the past three months (44%, down from 52% in December).
PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGSAMONG SELECTED SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS
-- March 2010 --Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most
likely to support?
Total Gender Age
Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+
(Base) (1003)
(%)
(486)
(%)
(517)
(%)
(321)
(%)
(361)
(%)
(286)
(%)
NDP 42 36 49 38 42 49
PC 39 45 33 34 39 41
Liberal 11 13 10 17 9 8
Others 8 6 9 11 10 2
Education Income
HS or Less SomePost-Sec.
Post-Sec.Grad
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Winnipeg Remains A NDP Bastion
While the province-wide gap in support between the Progressive Conservatives
and New Democrats has narrowed, the NDP have retained a significant lead
within the crucial Winnipeg battleground while the PCs have extended their
advantage outside the provincial capital.
Provincial Party Support- By Region -
Base: All respondents
1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most likely to support?
(n=1,003)
0%
20%
40%
60%
Manitoba (n=1,003) Winnipeg (n=603) Non-Winnipeg(n=400)
42%
49%
32%
39%
32%
51%
11% 13%8%
NDP
PC
Liberal
In Winnipeg, the NDP continue to enjoy the support of 49 percent of decided
voters (down only marginally from 52% in December), while the PCs now sit at 32
percent support (+2% versus December) and the Liberals remain at 13 percent
(unchanged). Beyond the Perimeter Highway, meanwhile, fully one-half of rural
voters back the Progressive Conservatives (51%, up from 49% in December),
while support for the NDP has slipped from 39 percent to 32 percent.
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Within the City of Winnipeg, the NDP continue to lead in all neighbourhoods, with
the race between the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives at its most
competitive in southwest Winnipeg (43% versus 40% respectively).
PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGS INRURAL AND URBAN MANITOBA
-- March 2010 --Net Voting Intention Among Decided Voters
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most
likely to support?
Total
Manitoba
Winnipeg Non-
Winnipeg
(Base) (1003)
(%)
(603)
(%)
(400)
(%)
NDP 42 49 32
PC 39 32 51
Liberal 11 13 8
Others 7 7 9
NorthwestWinnipeg
SouthwestWinnipeg
SoutheastWinnipeg
NortheastWinnipeg
CoreArea
(Base)(141)
(%)
(139)
(%)
(93)
(%)
(111)
(%)
(120)
(%)
NDP 54 43 46 52 50
PC 27 40 28 35 25
Liberal 11 16 18 6 14
Others 8 1 8 7 11
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For more information on this survey, please contact:
Scott MacKay
President,Probe Research Inc.
Suite 850-125 Garry Street,Winnipeg, Manitoba
R3C 3P2Tel.: 926-6567
Cell: (204) 955-9777Fax: 926-6566
E-mail:[email protected]
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This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
telephone interviews conducted between March 8th
and March 25th, 2010 among a random
and representative sampling of 1,003 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,003, one can say
with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they
would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-
of-error is higher within each of the surveys population sub-groups. Modified random-digit
dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to
participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this
sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]