100326 Provincial Party Standings

8/9/2019 100326 Provincial Party Standings

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NEWS RELEASEProvincial Party Standings, March 2010

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES NARROW NDP LEAD

Manitoba NDP Lose Ground To Progressive Conservatives, ButRemains First Choice For Manitoba Voters

Winnipeg The New Democratic Party remains the most popular party in the

province, yet their lead over the opposition Progressive Conservatives has

narrowed especially since the release of their recent budget, a new Winnipeg

Free Press/Probe Research poll finds.

Premier Greg Selinger and the NDPs lead over the Hugh McFadyen-led

Progressive Conservatives has been cut from 10 percentage points to three

within the past three months. Slightly more than four-in-ten Manitoba voters (42%,

down from 47% in December) now say they would vote for an NDP candidate ifan election were held tomorrow. The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile,

have experienced a slight increase in support (39%, up from 37% in December).

The Liberals under Jon Gerrard presently enjoy the support of just one-in-ten

voters (11%, unchanged from December). Other parties not represented in the

Legislature enjoy the backing of eight percent of decided voters (+4% from

December). Eighteen percent of voters were unable or unwilling to express a

party preference at this time.


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Provincial Party Support

Base: All respondents

1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most likely to support?

(n=1,003)

48%46%

43%41%

46%44%

45% 47%

42%

38%36%

39%

43%

36% 36% 38% 37%

39%

12% 13% 13%

10%

13% 14% 12% 11% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 Election June 2008(n=1000)

Sept. 2008(n=1000)

Dec. 2008(n=1000)

Mar. 2009(n=1000)

June 2009(n=1000)

Sept. 2009(n=1000)

Dec. 2009(n=1000)

Mar. 2010(n=1,000)

NDP PC Liberal

NDP Lose Ground After Releasing Budget

An analysis of voter preference taken before and after the release of the March

23rd provincial budget shows slight momentum towards the Progressive

Conservatives and away from the New Democrats following the tabling of the

governments annual spending plan.

Among Manitobans surveyed prior to the release of the budget, the NDP

enjoyed a seven percentage point advantage over their Progressive

Conservative rivals (44%, versus 37% respectively), with the Liberals trailing well-

behind at 12 percent and other parties enjoying eight percent support. Following

the release of the budget on March 23, however, the two main parties moved

into a deadlock with 41 percent support for both the NDP and PCs (post-budget,

Liberal support decreased slightly to 11% and other parties remained unchanged

at eight percent).


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Impact of Recent Manitoba Budget on

Provincial Voting Intentions


Given the longstanding popularity of the NDP and the fact the party enjoyed a

significant lead (10%) over the PCs in December, it is not surprising that it

continues to be the first choice among Manitoba voters, commented ProbeResearch president Scott MacKay. However, the PCs seem to have made up

ground and the political landscape in Manitoba might be starting to look more

competitive than it was six months ago.


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Battle Of The Sexes At The Ballot Box

The increase in support for the Progressive Conservatives can be at least partially

attributed to some male voters moving from the NDP and towards the PCs.

Women, meanwhile, continue to favour the New Democrats and prefer this

party over the Progressive Conservatives by a double-digit margin.

Provincial Party Support- By Gender -


1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most likely to support?(n=1,003)

0%

20%

40%

60%

NDP PC Liberal

49%

34%

13%

49%

33%

10%

Dec. 2009

Mar. 2010

0%

20%

40%

60%

NDP PC Liberal

45%40%

10%

36%

45%

13%

Dec. 2009

Mar. 2010

WOMEN (N=517)MEN (N=486)

Forty-five percent of male voters (up from 40% in December) now prefer the

Progressive Conservatives. Support for the NDP among men, meanwhile, has

decreased by nine percentage points in the past three months (from 45% in

December to 36% in March).

Nearly one-half of women (49%), on the other hand, voice support for the New

Democrats, which is unchanged from December. Female voter support for the

PCs (33%, -1% versus December) and Liberals (10%, -3% versus December) is also

basically unchanged since our last sounding on this question.


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Other notable variations among the various sub-populations surveyed (which are

highlighted in the table below) reveal:

The NDPs advantage among younger adults has narrowed, with just 38

percent of adults aged 18-34 years (down from 53% in December) now

indicating that they support this party versus 34 percent (+5%) who now

prefer the PCs.

The competition for voters aged 35-54 years also remains tight: 42 percent

of those in this demographic category prefer the NDP compared to 39

percent who back the PCs and nine percent who would cast ballots for

the Liberals. (In December, 43 percent of those aged 35-54 years backed

the PCs, 41 percent supported the NDP and 13 preferred the Liberals).

The Progressive Conservatives have made gains among post-secondarygraduates (40%, up from 34% in December) and middle-income earners

(40% among those earning $30,000-$59,999/year, up from 33%).

Support for the NDP among university and college-educated voters has

decreased in the past three months (44%, down from 52% in December).

PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGSAMONG SELECTED SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS

-- March 2010 --Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most

likely to support?

Total Gender Age

Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+

(Base) (1003)

(%)

(486)

(%)

(517)

(%)

(321)

(%)

(361)

(%)

(286)

(%)

NDP 42 36 49 38 42 49

PC 39 45 33 34 39 41

Liberal 11 13 10 17 9 8

Others 8 6 9 11 10 2

Education Income

HS or Less SomePost-Sec.

Post-Sec.Grad


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Winnipeg Remains A NDP Bastion

While the province-wide gap in support between the Progressive Conservatives

and New Democrats has narrowed, the NDP have retained a significant lead

within the crucial Winnipeg battleground while the PCs have extended their

advantage outside the provincial capital.

Provincial Party Support- By Region -


1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most likely to support?

(n=1,003)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Manitoba (n=1,003) Winnipeg (n=603) Non-Winnipeg(n=400)

42%

49%

32%

39%

32%

51%

11% 13%8%

NDP

PC

Liberal

In Winnipeg, the NDP continue to enjoy the support of 49 percent of decided

voters (down only marginally from 52% in December), while the PCs now sit at 32

percent support (+2% versus December) and the Liberals remain at 13 percent

(unchanged). Beyond the Perimeter Highway, meanwhile, fully one-half of rural

voters back the Progressive Conservatives (51%, up from 49% in December),

while support for the NDP has slipped from 39 percent to 32 percent.


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Within the City of Winnipeg, the NDP continue to lead in all neighbourhoods, with

the race between the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives at its most

competitive in southwest Winnipeg (43% versus 40% respectively).

PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGS INRURAL AND URBAN MANITOBA

-- March 2010 --Net Voting Intention Among Decided Voters

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate would you be most

likely to support?

Total

Manitoba

Winnipeg Non-

Winnipeg

(Base) (1003)

(%)

(603)

(%)

(400)

(%)

NDP 42 49 32

PC 39 32 51

Liberal 11 13 8

Others 7 7 9

NorthwestWinnipeg

SouthwestWinnipeg

SoutheastWinnipeg

NortheastWinnipeg

CoreArea

(Base)(141)

(%)

(139)

(%)

(93)

(%)

(111)

(%)

(120)

(%)

NDP 54 43 46 52 50

PC 27 40 28 35 25

Liberal 11 16 18 6 14

Others 8 1 8 7 11


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For more information on this survey, please contact:

Scott MacKay

President,Probe Research Inc.

Suite 850-125 Garry Street,Winnipeg, Manitoba

R3C 3P2Tel.: 926-6567

Cell: (204) 955-9777Fax: 926-6566

E-mail:[email protected]

- 30 -

This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via

telephone interviews conducted between March 8th

and March 25th, 2010 among a random

and representative sampling of 1,003 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,003, one can say

with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they

would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-

of-error is higher within each of the surveys population sub-groups. Modified random-digit

dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to

participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this

sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

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100326 Provincial Party Standings