1
Bridging long-term scenario and strategy Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: current practice and future analysis: current practice and future directions in environmental policy directions in environmental policy
The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision making
Axel VolkeryScenarios and Forward Studies Group
2
The European Environment AgencyThe European Environment Agency
• A specialised European Agency based in Copenhagen
• 32 member countries
• Mission is to provide ”timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information” on the ”state and prospects of Europe’s environment”
www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios
3
BLOSSOM projectBLOSSOM project
BLOSSOM = Bridging LOng-term Scenario and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods
• Take stock of existing practice • Analyse institutional approaches• Review methodological approaches• Foster information exchange and learning
First phase run in 2008 as a scoping activity together with RAND Europe
4
Direct and indirect forms of scenario Direct and indirect forms of scenario based decision-support…based decision-support…
Indirect Direct
Stimulating wider debate about possible futures
Getting stakeholder buy-in or engagement
Triggering cultural change within the organisation
Clarifying an issue’s importance and framing a decision-making agenda
Generating options for future action
Appraising robustness of options for future action
5
...across the ”cycle of policy-making”...across the ”cycle of policy-making”
More indirect forms
More direct forms
6
Estimating the outcomes/impacts of Estimating the outcomes/impacts of scenarios in public policy makingscenarios in public policy making
Source: draft AoA, UNEP/UNESCO, adapted from Eckley 2001
Influences from scenarios/foresight exercises may take considerable time to become evident (see Mitchell et al. 2006 for a similar assessment of the influence of Global Environmental Assessments)
7
Literature reviewLiterature review
• 54 suitable pieces were identified
• The evaluative literature remains nascent - major gaps identified:
• Factors that influence the effectiveness and efficiency of uptake of scenarios / other foresight tools
• Failure of related exercises• SWOT for institutional arrangements • Case studies beyond the world of business
8
Workshop participants surveyWorkshop participants survey
How important are the following objectives when using scenarios or other futures methods?
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stimulating wider debate about possible futures
Clarifying an issue’s importance and framing adecision-making agenda
Generating options for future action
Appraising robustness of options for future action
Triggering cultural change within the organisation
Getting stakeholder engagement or buy-in
Not important at all Very important
Mean+/- Standard deviation
Not important at all Very important
Mean+/- Standard deviation
1 2 3 4 50
9
How successful is scenario thinking in achieving these objectives?
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stimulating wider debate about possible futures
Clarifying an issue’s importance and framing adecision-making agenda
Generating options for future action
Appraising robustness of options for future action
Triggering cultural change within the organisation
Getting stakeholder engagement or buy-in
Not successful at all Very successful
Mean+/- Standard deviation
1 2 3 4 50
Workshop participants surveyWorkshop participants survey
10
What are the key factors that contribute to achieve the objectives of scenarios and other futures methodologies?
Not important at all Very important
0 1 2 3 4 5
The selection of appropriate and attainable goalsfor the exercise
The selection of the right methodology for the setgoals
The rigor/robustness of the application of themethodology
The flexibility of the methodology to the specificcontext
The skills/experience of those carrying out thescenario exercise
The skills/experience of those using the scenariooutputs
The level of involvement of the user/audience withthe scenario exercise
The resources available for the project
The institutional context of the user/audience
Political factors (e.g. the organisation’s willingnessto take a long-term view)
Mean
+/- Standard deviation
Mean
+/- Standard deviation
Workshop participants surveyWorkshop participants survey
11
Bridging scenario and strategy analysisBridging scenario and strategy analysis
Source: adapted from van der Heijden (2004), Barre (2007)
One-off / ad-hoc(more product-oriented)
Ongoing / permanent(more process-oriented)
Thinking(broadening/opening up)
Making sense Anticipation
Acting(closing)
Optimal strategy Adaptive learning
12
BarriersBarriers
Particular challenges
• Heterogenous nature of objectives and interests faced by governmental agencies
• Weak institutionalisation, silo mentality, unclear benefits
• Different time horizons, but also different attention foci of policy-makers and analysts
• Contradictions between process and product functions
• Contradictions between deliberative and representative democracy
13
Key topicsKey topics
• User and stakeholder participation• Making knowledge useful• Linking strategic planning to the policy cycle /
timing• Skills and capacity• Accountability and incentives• Organisational choices
14
Clustering approachesClustering approaches
Ongoing Ad-hoc
Cross-sector
External UK-ForesightHorizon Scanning CentreFISTERA
Numerous long-term strategic analysis studies
Internal UK-ForesightHorizon Scanning CentreFinland Futures Centre
Centre d’analyse stratégique, France Swedish inter-ministerial foresight network
Sector-based
External UK Climate Impacts Programme Tyndall Centre, UK
Internal Departmental Strategy units (e.g. NL Dept of Agriculture)
UK Meteorological Office IPCCRMNO (NL)
Source: EEA forthcoming
15
Some options to considerSome options to consider
Virtual network or physical location?
Interdep. steering groups
or not?
Centralised or decentralised?
Government funded or
contribution based?
Temporary or permanent?
Formalised inputs or space for discussion?
In-built or outsourced expertise?
Expert-led or stakeholder-driven?
Issue-based network or think tank with
own agenda?
16
Outlook on EEA activitiesOutlook on EEA activities
• Technical report available soon• in 2009: review and compare practice in
greater depth across EEA member countries• More systemic comparison of advantages /
disadvantages of approaches• Build toolbox matrix• Better understanding how to evaluate impacts and
effectivness
• Networking - your cooperation is highly welcome...
17
Thank youThank you
Dr. Axel VolkeryEuropean Environment Agency
Kongens Nytorv 6DK – 1050 Copenhagen K
+45 3336 [email protected]