You are invited to the Centre for Urban Resilience ... · Foresight Future of Cities project Government Office for Science . Overview •An additional set of ‘what if’ scenarios

You are invited to the Centre for Urban Resilience & Energy / cities@manchester Forum:

FORESIGHTING a FUTURE

with CITIES ‘How can future-oriented research help 'devo' cities turn austerity to

prosperity’?

Wednesday 24th June 2015

Professor Sir Alan Wilson, UCL (Chair of Lead Expert Group of the GO-Science Foresight on Future of Cities).

FORESIGHT: FUTURE OF CITIES

Image: CASA

4

UK system and city systems

The Foresight Project

Project aim:

Provide central and local government with an evidence base to support decisions in the short term which will lead to positive outcomes for cities in the long term.

Living in Cities

Urban Economies

Urban Metabolism

Urban Form

Urban Infrastructure

Urban Governance

6 KEY THEMES

Spatial scales:

Time horizon:

2065, in the context of contemporary analysis

We continue to engage with a broad range of stakeholders through a series of exercises to develop the evidence base.

Academics

Central Government

Practitioners

Young people

Local Authorities

Major employers

Third Sector

Future Cities Catapult

+ many others

Institutes

Ways of working

5

City visits 19 cities

City futures 6 local projects

City Visions network

Working papers 8 published, 8+ forthcoming,

4+ think pieces

Workshops 14 Whitehall departments

5 expert workshops

Demographic change

6

Demographic change and its distribution:

• Growth, and ageing

• 80M by 2062 (ONS)? • 10M increase in cities by 2040? • where will people live

• the UK balance? • within cities

• need access to good housing, employment

(and hence income), education (as life-long learning), health services, retail, leisure,…

• All require effective connectivity.

Urban economies

7

• unpredictability of technological change

• future of work (and hence income which

will determine ability to pay for goods and

services not provided by the state);

• hollowing out?

• enhancing economic potential, and

preparing for long-run challenges,

demands an integrated ‘offer’

Environment

8

• sustainability: energy, water, waste,…

• climate change, associated low-carbon targets

• some radical thinking needed

Image: Space Syntax

Urban Form

9

• the legacy

– the planning system; green belts

– housing developers’ business models

– town centre/retail structures

– the development of suburbs – polycentric structures but low densities

• the challenges:

– brownfield development vs new garden cities?

– reducing trip lengths, retro-fitting

– while still providing appropriate connectivity

Image: ARUP

Infrastructure systems

1

0

• investment planning is challenging given the diversity of public and private agencies contributing

• most utilities are now paid for by consumers– and hence links with different scenarios on the ‘future of work’

• there are implications for housing and the major services such as health and education

• transport is critical for connectivity

• this is the heart of the smart agenda

Governance and leadership

1

1

• there are strong arguments in play for increased local autonomy

• it is not easy to define ‘local’ in this context because local authority boundaries do not coincide with functional city regions; is beginning to be resolved pragmatically through ‘combined authorities’

• subsidiarity principles needed

Key messages

1

2

Interdependencies in city and regional systems are of crucial

Technology is helping cities to become smart, but this is focused on the present. We need to be smart for the long run

Technological change means that we cannot expect to forecast over 50 year time horizons. What we can do, and will do, is develop scenarios that can be tested

Kathryn Moore, HS2: Landscape Vision for Birmingham, 2012

Summary findings 11 June 2015 (Updated 19th June)

Scenarios-1: projections-based scenarios:

employment-led

Tom Congrave +

Foresight Future of Cities project Government Office for Science

Overview

• An additional set of ‘what if’ scenarios have been

developed for the national system of cities • This adopts an employment-led approach taking into

account different levels of employment growth performance between cities

• It then explores how migration might react

• This approach offers analysis from a different perspective

to the previous population transfer scenarios

Approach – Employment Projections • Developed to reflect the potential alternative pathways of

cities in terms of employment growth in knowledge-based service (KIS) sectors

• Centre for Cities (CFC)’s ‘Century of Cities’ report:

• Reinventors – Those cities that have adapted their economies, creating jobs in new, more knowledge-focused industries to offset losses in more traditional industries; and

• Replicators – Those cities that have struggled to adapt, merely replicating their

economies by replacing jobs in declining industries with lower-skilled, more routinised jobs

Findings - Employment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Milton Keynes Telford Warrington Crawley Reading Northampton Bristol Swindon Leeds

% g

row

th in

em

plo

yme

nt

Top 10 PUAs, % Employment Growth 2011-2037

‘Baseline Employment-led’ Scenario

Findings – Employment

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

London Manchester Bristol Leeds Milton Keynes Reading Crawley Warrington Northampton Bournemouth

Gro

wth

in e

mp

loym

en

t (0

00

s)

Top 10 PUAs, Absolute Employment Growth 2011-2037

‘Baseline Employment-led’ Scenario

Pete Ferguson, Camilo Vargas and Alan Wilson

Scenario Development-2: experiments for London

Experiments for London

• major development in opportunity areas

• new towns beyond the boundaries of the GLA (or other ‘selected’ green belt developments)

• changes in the balance of transport costs

• e.g. minimising car travel; changes in transport technologies

Case Study

15,727,653 Residents

Base - Residential Population (Counts) Data Source: ONS (2011)

Residential Population (Density) Data Source: ONS (2011)

61.4 %

19.5 %

19.1 %

Services

Retail

Industrial

7,727,653 Jobs

Employment Distribution (Counts) Data Source: ONS (2011)

61.4 %

19.5 %

19.1 %

Services

Retail

Industrial

7,727,653 Jobs

Employment Distribution (Density) Data Source: ONS (2011)

Residential

Housing Floorspace (Thousands of m2) Data Source: ONS (2008)

Residential

Housing Floorspace (Density) Data Source: ONS (2008)

Public Transport Network (Train Data Source: OS (2015), Underground Data Source: Wikimedia (2015), and Light rail Data Source: Wikimedia

(2015))

Private Transport Network

(Ordnance Survey Open Roads) Data Source: OS (2015)

Trips residence to workplace

All transport modes Data Source: ONS (2011)

Trips residence to workplace

Trips by car Data Source: ONS (2011)

Trips residence to workplace Trips by bus and coach Data Source: ONS (2011)

Trips residence to workplace Trips by underground, tram and light rail Data Source: ONS (2011)

Trips residence to workplace Trips by train Data Source: ONS (2011)

Some preliminary tests

490,000 Jobs Services

235,000 dwellings Residential

Scenario 1: Development within Opportunity Areas Intensification of employment and housing in designated opportunity areas within

the GLA boundary



the GLA boundary



the GLA boundary

235,000 dwellings Residential


the GLA boundary


the GLA boundary

Output: Change in residents distribution.

Residents Density (Before)


the GLA boundary

Output: Change in residents distribution.

Residents Density (After)


the GLA boundary

Output: Change in residents distribution

Residents Change

Scenario 2: Relaxation of Greenbelt policy Relaxation of Greenbelt planning restrictions with extra supply permitted outside

the GLA boundary but within the London city-regional commuter zone















Scenario 3: Public transport subsidy and road pricing Change in travel flows between residence and workplace by car

(Before)

Scenario 3: Public transport subsidy and road pricing Change in travel flows between residence and workplace by car

(After)

Scenario 3: Public transport subsidy and road pricing Change in travel flows between residence and workplace by train, underground,

and light train

(Before)

Scenario 3: Public transport subsidy and road pricing Change in travel flows between residence and workplace by train, underground,

and light train

(After)

Scenario 3: Public transport subsidy and road pricing Change in travel flows between residence and workplace








Documents

You are invited to the Centre for Urban Resilience ... · Foresight Future of Cities project Government Office for Science . Overview •An additional set of ‘what if’ scenarios