You are invited to the Centre for Urban Resilience & Energy / cities@manchester Forum:

FORESIGHTING a FUTURE

with CITIES ‘How can future-oriented research help 'devo' cities turn austerity to

prosperity’?

Wednesday 24th June 2015

The panel

• Keynote: Professor Sir Alan Wilson, UCL (Chair of Lead Expert Group of the GO-Science Foresight on Future of Cities).

• Prof. Karel Williams (MBS), • Mark Tewdwr-Jones (Newcastle), • David Waite (Cardiff), • Nicola Headlam (Liverpool), • Ian Miles (MBS) • Sally Randles (MBS), • Colin Talbot (MBS), • Mark Atherton (AGMA), • Nicola Kane (TFGM), • Cllr Derek Antrobus (Salford), • Saska Petrova (CURE), • Stefan Bouzarovski (CURE), • Andrew Karvonen (Cities),

The question

‘How can future-oriented research help 'devo' cities turn

austerity to prosperity’?

ISSUES INCLUDING -

• Update on city foresight activities

• Concepts, methods, tools

• Policy applications

• Ways forward – ‘how can future-oriented research’...

Professor Sir Alan Wilson, UCL (Chair of Lead Expert Group of the GO-Science Foresight on Future of Cities).

(Presentation in separate file)

Prof. Karel Williams (MBS)

The contribution of research? identifying blockages + reframing probs.

• Austerity to prosperity? but what does it mean + who will deliver it? where does research fit in?

• The mainstream polit. classes are terminally challenged: victims of events eg didn’t see financial crisis coming and haven’t

regulated credit creation or organised money

sponsors of Pollyanna projects eg Osborne’s “ march of the makers” + “Northern power house” (while house property is the consumer ATM)

• Can’t predict political mobilisation as the economy disappoints or falls apart (the DFP vs Barcelona)

• Understand something by analysing current blockages + proposing reframing, ex 2014 Guardian manifesto http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/sep/24/manifesto-fairer-grounded-city-sustainable-transport-broadband-housing

Reframing (1) from redistribution to reorganisation • Post 1979 Europe combines (a) structural reform +

deregulated labour market with (b) social democ legacy of redistribution through services + income support financed ex progressive taxes )

• UK result = “New Speenhamland” uncontrolled increase in social bill for subsidising low wages eg in UK nearly 40% of working households receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes; entitlements cut as voters can’t pay + firms won’t pay

• Need to reframe the problem: need to shift towards reorganising material provision because we can’t get a fairer city by pressing redistribution of income +.

• Revive early and mid 20th century city building which gave us clean water + social housing; we still need housing and now we need new kinds of adult care which is not solved by equity release to fund beds in PE owned residential chains

Reframing (2) from compet’n to foundational economy

• In post ‘79 imaginary, cities must be competitive ie compete economically vs other cities for mobile firms + investment (ex skills + infrastructure)

• Resulting fixation with part of the economy ie the competitive tradeable goods sector + high tech as the way to jobs and GVA ( with infrastructure as an instrumentality)

• Corollary = neglect of the foundational economy where 40% of every city workforce is engaged in the production of mundane goods and services (health, education, welfare, pipe and cable utilities, transport + food distribution) which are important in themselves

• Reframe the problem from compet. city to grounded city which reviews individual deficiencies and then provides a larger number of its citizens with the basic goods and services that provide the material basis for social life

Old school measures and a new agenda for social innovation

• Old school: revisit pre GDP measures of material welfare; remembering Beveridge’s objective of “abolishing want” was built on Rowntree’s calculation of the subsistence minimum

• New agenda: for social innovation which is more politically adversarial + financially literate (because the post ‘79 UK experiment to deliver competn + markets instead entrenched private trade interests and organised money):

adversarial vs obstructive private interests : reinventing adult care is not like fair trade coffee or the OU

financially literate vs the alibis of the private sector + mobilising resources to build for steady low returns

• Will change research even if it does not change the world: need for an activist practice with partners not scholarly introspection

Prof. Mark Tewdwr-Jones (Newcastle)

Professor Mark Tewdwr-Jones Professor John Goddard

Two separate knowledge communities…

Domain: Education and Research

Focus: University as an institution

Seeking: International Academic Excellence

Domain: Territorial Development

Focus: City and regional development

Seeking: Answers to societal ills

THE CITY

THE UNIVERSITY

Establishment of Partnerships based on Shared Interests

What are we doing?

• Newcastle Foresight Project 2065, part of UK Future of Cities

• Workflows:

– Co-ordination with other forward looking projects

– Integration within city council and university governance: live policy developments

– Mixed methods approach

– Initial desk-based evidence gathering. Finding forward looking research addressing issues faced by Newcastle City Region

– Series of stakeholder meetings with reps of 50 organisations to understand the scenarios and processes driving the future development up to 2065

Overview of Newcastle Urban Futures

• Project partnership between Newcastle University, Newcastle City Council and Newcastle Science City Board

• Lead Expert Group drawn from the three partners and includes representatives from Northumbria University

• Stakeholder Group – a wide range of interests from private and public sector, academia and the third sector

• Using 7 methods to achieve a comprehensive picture: 1. Baseline evidence – the current picture 2. Newcastle City region research and literature database 3. Stakeholder Workshops 4. Delphi Survey 5. Newcastle City Futures Exhibition – an Urban Room 6. Scenario building

City Futures Development Group

CFDG aims

• A collaborative arrangement between universities and Newcastle City Council, the NELEP, and other policy organisations.

• This partnership is a first in Newcastle but also is innovative for northern core cities.

• The purpose is to provide a one-stop shop for the universities, Council, LEP & industry to discuss emerging and new areas of research that could be of benefit to the city, to identify ongoing research being undertaken at the universities and colleges that could be disseminated to a policy audience, and to hear of city intelligence needs to inform future research project bids.

CFDG agenda

• CFDG is committed to:

– Improving services, quality of life and economic growth utilising existing academic & industry excellence

– Creating opportunities for research & product development by facilitating access to infrastructure & residents

– Ensuring that Newcastle is seen as a test-bed for innovation, providing further chances for research, investment & business growth

– Developing partnership and joint working between

academia, industry & the public sector.

Newcastle related research projects • Newcastle Urban Foresight 2065 (MTJ)

• Foresight Future of Cities Research Network (MTJ)

• Digital Civics (Olivier)

• National Health Service Alliance, Connected Health Cities (Day)

• National Institute for Ageing Science & Innovation (Robinson)

• Urban Science Building, Science Central (Fitzgerald)

• Neptune Centre for Excellence, subsea cluster (Wright)

• Cloud Innovation Centre (Watson)

• Smart Grid Laboratory (Lyons)

• Compass4D, DriveLab, automated transport systems (Blythe)

• iBUILD, infrastructure development (Dawson)

• Urban Water Infrastructure facility (Dawson)

• Policing Research Partnership (Clark)

• Alcohol and young people, city spaces (Townshend)

• Impact of the Bedroom Tax (Moffatt)

Future ideas • Identify potential projects that focus on

ageing, digital, infrastructure, NEETs

• Develop new collaborative arrangements across experts and organisations

• Sharing intelligence, data and ideas in brainstorming conversations

• Disseminating work and initiating conversations

• Utilising visualisations to inform and educate citizens of developments and changes

David Waite (Cardiff)

Policy by Template or

Blueprint

• “Best practice” – many advocates and proponents at present

• Geographers are keen on (critiquing) the idea of “policy transfer” – “look what they are doing; we could do that here”

• Tractable policy or policy gimmickry? What other approaches can we take?

Framing Future-Oriented

Perspectives

• Emphasise local context – get under the skin of local systems – think about how, and in what form, change might emerge (from local ruptures to big secular changes)

• Universities have a role to play in mediating a knowledge system - in conjunction with, and often led by, partners - in order to cultivate an understanding of local context

• Recognising the complexity of urban systems, and taking inter-disciplinarity as core

Transitioning from Austerity …

• No easy prescription

• A lot of emphasis on devolution in existing policy narratives – but big questions about ad hocery and pay back (if not “earn back”!)

• Regardless of the policy trajectories, a grounded and updated knowledge base is essential

• We can learn from others, certainly … but let’s not be too scripted about it!

Starting Points/References

• Docherty I and McKiernan P (2008) Scenario

planning for the Edinburgh city region.

Environment and Planning C: Government and

Policy, 26(5): 982–997

• Turok I (2009) The distinctive city: pitfalls in the

pursuit of differential advantage. Environment and

Planning A, 41: 13-30.

Nicola Headlam (Liverpool)

Prof. Ian Miles (MBS)

Sally Randles (MBS)

Framings and frameworks of rri/RRI: 6 Grand Narratives :

Sites of Normative Contestation and Institutionalisation Narrative

A Autonomy of Science :Traditional interpretation of Research Excellence & the responsible conduct of research. Self-regulation inc Ethics Committees (Iron triangle? State/Univs/Researchers)

B Science with/for ‘in the service of’ society. Societal relevance. Challenge to the ‘traditional’ understanding of Research Excellence. Techniques and methods of governance: deliberative democracy, inclusion, engagement, in particular ‘upstream’ inclusion of civil society or ‘3rd sector’. EC SWAFs. Rome Declaration.

C Responsible governance of new and emerging technologies & technology controversies. Techniques and methods of governance : CTA, STIR, TA, mid-stream modulation, ELSI, Foresight.

D Responsible Business and industry .CSR/RRI/Industry standards and reporting, triple bottom line, Business Codes of Ethics.

E Responsible Innovation Systems :distributed governance across all actors inc responsible value chains. Techniques and governance instruments: labels/accreditation schemes.

F Orienting R & I systems to societal problems and challenges inc social innovation, sustainability. 36

Mark Atherton (AGMA / New Economy)

GM Low Carbon Project Pipeline

Resource Efficiency

Heat Networks

Travel Choices

NDEE

Domestic retrofit

Wind

Cycling Infrastructure

Public Transport

Energy from Waste

PV

Public Sector: Planned and Potential

Forecasting and Measuring

a Low Carbon Future:

• Online Monitoring – ability

to capture real time metrics

on carbon emissions,

planned and potential

savings

• Intelligence over

knowledge – predictive

tools to assess pathways

and longer term outcomes

• Added Value – socio-

economic cost benefit,

value for money and

income modelling

Behaviour change and energy use

Key factors that drive behaviour:

• Energy literacy – understanding of

energy use/costs and how actions

contribute to energy consumption

• Knowledge of behaviour –

understanding of the different ways to

reduce energy use

• Beliefs about outcome – assurance

that taking action will make a

difference e.g. reduce fuel poverty

• Self ability – the confidence to

change behaviour

• Importance - belief that reducing

energy is relevant e.g. cost and health

• Social and household norms –

making energy reduction normal and

socially desirable

Systems Mapping Increasing use of open source GIS:

• Cities viewed as interacting

systems – better understanding and

modelling of interacting systems to

link value to services

• Open source to allow data

integration – overcoming institutional

barriers to information sharing.

• Risk avoidance – better prediction of

risks and communication of

hazards/events to accelerate recovery

• Mapping tools – enhanced analysis,

overlay cause and effect, assess

vulnerability and opportunities,

potential economies and savings.

Flood Risk Map - Manchester

Nicola Kane (Transport for GM)

Our 2040 Vision

Drivers of Future Travel Demand

Technology & Innovation

Technology & Innovation

Futuring Exercises

DISPERSED GROWTH

BUSINESS-FRIENDLY REGIONAL CAPITAL

GREEN GROWTH

WORLD CITY

Diverse Economy

High-carbon growth in GM

City of knowledge and creativity

Low-carbon growth in GM

Lessons learnt and next step challenges

• Foresighting not easy but focuses minds

• Only ever a best guess

• Start with a Vision and desired outcomes

• Identify external future drivers

• Then consider potential disruptors/risks

• Regular horizon scanning

Cllr Derek Antrobus (Salford)

(Em)powering cities from below

Dr Saska Petrova

To start…

Cities - key drivers of global energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions Cities - sites for innovation and knowledge production (Bulkeley et al, 2015) Cities - ‘embattled sites’ of resistance to power overflowing of ‘multiple practices...[and] alternative possibilities’ (Harvey, 2012: xvii)

The collapse of state support has raised the expectation that local communities – including voluntary and private-sector organizations – will deliver services that were previously provided by the state. Laissez-faire localism and social commitment (Deas and Doyle 2013) led to the (re)emergence of a communal ethos and various neighbourhood ‘experiments’ (Seyfang et al. 2014; Anastasopoulos 2013) Austerity urbanism (Peck, 2012) as creator of multiple-precarities, but also a trigger for collective political resistance and economic alternatives

Theory

Limited evidence how self-organized groups reshape the economic parameters of everyday urban life (Erdem 2014) Multiple and contested collective actions: ephemeral and post-political (Swyngedouw, 2010) When the capitalist economy is seen as the real, dominant and or most powerful form of economic life, the alternative economy is usually seen as idealistic, inferior and powerless (Healy, 2009)

Challenges

Prof. Stefan Bouzarovski (CURE)

Low carbon transitions in cities Equity matters

• Extensive transformation of urban energy systems currently

underway

• Political and spatial aspects of the process far less understood than

technological dimensions

• Multiple transitions framework (Sykora and Bouzarovski) posits that

systemic urban reconfigurations are sequential and involve material

aspects

• Transitions create vulnerabilities: there are always winners and losers

Locational aspects

Both creates and is

contingent upon uneven development

Results in landscapes of vulnerability

Multi-scalar policies

generate their own

territorialities

Path dependent in

socio-technical

terms

Energy vulnerability through a spatial transitions lens

Implications •The contradictions embedded in low-carbon transitions are inherent to the nature of capitalism (Huber 2008)

•Urban transitions are generators of wider social, political, spatial and environmental reorderings and vulnerabilities

•Vulnerability embodies multiple scales, temporalities and environments

•An agent’s vulnerability is related to their socio-spatial position within a transitioning energy system

Andrew Karvonen (Cities)