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YE2019 - Q12020 | Real Estate Market Overview | Greece Athens | May, 2020 | Private & Confidential
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 2 |
1.0
Greece Real Estate Market: Synopsis
Greek Economy 2019 Policy Responses to the Pandemic
Apartment Prices 2019Real Estate Supply
Broad-based recovery led by exports
and public consumption
• GDP continues to increase at positive rate of
1.9% (2019). Data are provisional with a second
estimate expected in October 2020
• Unemployment down to 16.6% (12/2019) from
27.5% in 2013. Euro area unemployment at
7.3% (February 2020)
• Inflation rate is muted and is expected to remain
at low levels (0.9%)
• NPLs-to-Gross Loans down to 42.1% (Sep.
2019) from 46.7% in September 2018
Fiscal Policy expected to do the
heavy-lifting to combat Covid-19
• Fiscal measures announced to support
economy and private sector corporations and
employees. The second wave of budgetary
measures amounts to 3.8 bil. Euros.
• ENFIA tax will be calculated according to
previous status quo and new fair value prices
will kick in 2021.
• European Investment Bank to provide 2 bn
euros liquidity to corporations.
• ECB expected to maintain accommodative
policy and Asset Purchases.
YoY increase of 7.5% compared to
2018
• Apartment prices are increasing but they remain
at low levels
• Relative to Q1-2019, prices of apartments older
than 5 years grew by 4%. New up to 5 yeas
grew at 6.4%
• On a y-o-y basis, apartment prices in Athens
grew by 11% and apartment prices in
Thessaloniki by 5.5%
• Apartment prices are driven by short rent
platforms and “Golden Visa” investors.
Number of building permits increase in
2019
• Total building activity at a country level has
increased by 16.6% (Feb 2019- Jan.2020)
• Production Index of Building Construction which
measures value of construction of buildings
(residential and non-residential) along with site
formation, demolition, and general works for
buildings has dropped by 5.7% y-o-y basis.
Synopsis
Global Economy Q1 2020
Coronavirus pandemic freezes
economic activity
• IMF states that GDP per capita shrinking in 170
countries due to pandemic is now an optimistic
scenario
• According to the IMF, the global economy is
forecasted to shrink by 3% as a base case
scenario and expected to bounce back in 2021
• The recovery is largely dependent on how long
the outbreak will last
• More than 300,000 people have lost their lives
until May 2020.
House Prices 2019
Prices of Dwellings continue to
increase in 2019
• Prices of dwellings increased by 7.5% on a y-o-
y basis
• Percentage change in Q4 -2019 relative to Q1-
2019 comes at 5%
• Domestic demand for houses is expected to
increase as a result of low costs of financing
and reduction of NPL levels on banks’ balance
sheets
Main drivers of growth in 2019 are exports of goods and services and government consumption.
Impact of Covid-19 cannot be quantified yet. Expectations range from 0% to -10% GDP growth in 2020.
1 General Government Gross Debt as a percentage of GDP (2018)
Source: Eurostat
IMF expectations
Source: Eurostat, European Commission Projections
Source: ELSTAT
Key Figures
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 3 |
2.0
Greek Economy grew in 2019. Impact from pandemic estimated at -10% on GDP growth
Greek Economy
GDP Growth
Unemployment
Inflation
Investments (bn), ‘19)
1.9% Expected to shrink
16.6%
0.9%
€ 21.4 5% compared to 2018
Government Debt1 181.1% Expected to increase to 200%
Expected to increase, highly uncertain
Not expected to change in short-run
Source: ELSTAT
-0.3%
-4%-5%
-9%
-7%
-3%
1%0% 0%
2% 2% 2% 2%
-10%-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020
Real GDP Growth
Real GDP Covid Effect
EC Forecast ignoring COVID
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (mil. €)
Dwellings Other buildings and structures
Cultivated biological resources Total Machinery
Transport equipment +weapon systems Information Communication Technology (ICT) equipment
Other machinery and equipment +weapon systems Intellectual property products
49,958
52,86654,845
54,83557,837
55,931
53,059
59,45466,736
6971069,452
66,88963,353
59,91562,130
55,840
54,31761,292
67,218 69728
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Exports/Imports in mn €
Exports Imports
IMF Forecast accounting for COVID
Tourism is one of the leading contributors to GDP with a share of over 20%.
Total arrivals are continuously increasing since 2010 signalling increasing demand for Greek destinations. In dealing with Covid-19 Greece has gained credibility which
should be cashed during the 2021 season.
Source: Insete
*Excludes cruises
Source: Insete
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 4 |
3.0 Tourism Industry
15,00716,427 15,518
17,920
22,03323,599
24,79927,194
30,123
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Arrivals* ('000s)
Source: Insete
*2018 data are provisional
** Cruise data not included
68.6 69.6 71.1 73.170.4
73.9
67.0 67.7 69.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Average Spend/Nightby country of Origin (€)
Eurozone EU countries outside Eurozone
Other Countries Total Border Survey**
22.1 21.8 25.5
47.1
66.8 75.276.8
66.3
22.3 23.6 26.1
52.8
68.1
74.8 76.2
65.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Hotel Occupancy Rates
2017 2018
• Average spend per night has exhibited a modest increase and remains lower than 2015 levels
• Other Countries segment includes US, Australia and Switzerland with 89.1,84.3 and 85.1€ spend
on average per night. From those countries only US tourists spent more in 2018 than in 2017
• 2018 Occupancy rates are fairly stable on a y-o-y basis
• Bank of Greece provisional data for January to March 2019 period showed a surplus of 212 mn € in
balance of travel services, up from 127 mn € surplus in same period for 2018
• UK tourists form a significant share of inbound arrivals. BREXIT negotiations pose a risk for Greek
tourism to the extent of the deal reached. Recent collapse of Thomas Cook will cost the economy
0.5bn€ according to government officials
• For the period of 2019 according to preliminary data, arrivals are estimated at over 30 million and
generating approximately 18 bil euros in revenues
• Hotel units are estimated at 9,917
Greece scores first with 87.9% in hotel satisfaction index (GRI), June 2019 data.
10 Year Greek Benchmark Government Bond yields drop to new lows, 2% on April. Yields increased during the period of lockdown
Investor confidence to Greek economy picked up during 2019, as did the Bank Equity Market Index. The effect of the pandemic is apparent in bank equity sector.
Source: Bloomberg
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 5 |
4.0 Banking Sector
Source: Athens Stock Exchange
NPLs dropped to 42.1% but bad-debt management issue still looms over economy.
49.1 49.1 48.7
47.2
48.647.8
46.7
45.4 45.1
43.6
42.1
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Mar2017
Jun2017
Sep2017
Dec2017
Mar2018
Jun2018
Sep2018
Dec2018
Mar2019
Jun2019
Sep2019
NPL Ratio
Source: Bank of Greece
• Greece’s cost of financing has dropped to low levels, which can be used to finance more growth-
oriented policies and provide stimulus for economic recovery in response to the lockdown
• Confidence to Greek economy seems to cascade down to the financial sector with bank stocks
gaining in price before the lockdown and the prospects of a potential recession
• According to Bank of Greece data, total deposits and repos from private sector stood at 143 bn € , a
6.3% 12-month change (Public Source, December 2019)
• On the downside, Greece is the worst performing country in Euro area in terms of NPL ratio. NPLs
are a drag on banks’ balance sheets and hinder their ability to issue new loans to customers
• Greek banks Tier 1 Capital Ratio was estimated at 15.3% (ECB, January 2019) well above Basel III
minimum requirement of 6%. Greece’s Tier 1 ratio is at the average of Euro Area level
• In dealing with the global pandemic there is uncertainty on the impact of Covid-19 on bank balance
sheets through the management of non-performing loans
• Securitization is brought to halt at least until H2 2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-
15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
10 Year Greek GovernmentBenchmark Bond Yield
785
862
577
440
552
806 829883
344
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
FTSE Bank IndexQuarterly Closing Prices
Source: ELSTAT Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 6 |
5.0 Population (2011 Census)
Total Population per Region
East Macedonia – Thrace
608,182 (6%)
Central Macedonia
1,882,108(17%)
West Macedonia
283,689 (3%)
Epirus
336,856(3%))
Thessaly
732,762(7%)
Ionian islands
207,855(2%)
West Greece
679,796(6%)
Peloponnese
577,903(5%)
Attica
3,828,434(35%)
North Aegean
199,231(2%)
South Aegean
309,015(3%)
Central Greece
547,390(5%)
According to ELSTAT data from 2011 Census, there were approximately 6.4 million regular residential assets in Greece.
Source: ELSTAT, 2011 CensusSource: ELSTAT, 2011 Census
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 7 |
6.0 Residential Assets Demographics
• Data shows that bulk of construction took place during 1960s to 1990s. There is
significant decrease in the years following 2006, signifying more aged properties
• Highest percentage of residential assets is located in Attica region with Central
Macedonia coming in the second place
• Share of assets occupied are in excess of vacant assets, except for Ionian
Islands, Peloponnese, North and South Aegean where shares are almost
equivalent
• We should note that most of the assets are available to rent while available for
sale are less than 1% of total regular assets
Residential market 2011 snapshot.
Source: ELSTAT, 2011 Census
Period of
ConstructionTotal
Detached
House2 floor house
Apartment
BuildingOther
Before 1919 163,759 139,270 18,952 5,016 521
1919 - 1945 318,372 256,942 43,748 16,902 780
1946 - 1960 605,693 393,987 105,838 104,431 1,437
1961 - 1970 1,002,902 385,796 174,220 440,342 2,544
1971 - 1980 1,437,424 382,443 229,831 820,853 4,297
1981 - 1990 1,049,931 357,608 202,350 486,189 3,784
1991 - 2000 806,977 261,589 138,610 403,882 2,896
2001 - 2005 539,009 149,230 76,783 311,497 1,499
after 2006 447,834 130,572 58,669 256,971 1,622
Total 6,371,901 2,457,437 1,049,001 2,846,083 19,380
Country Level 6,384,353
East Mac. Thrace 340,682
Centr.Macedonia 1,076,148
West Macedonia 159,409
Epirus 204,948
Thessaly 397,301
Central Greece 359,236
Ionian Islands 160,298
West Greece 390,609
Peloponese 411,462
Attiki 2,121,155
North Aegean 151,449
South Aegean 229,919
Crete 381,737
Total Residential Assets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Cou
ntry
Lev
el
Eas
t Mac
. Thr
ace
Cen
tr.M
aced
onia
Wes
t Mac
edon
ia
Epi
rus
The
ssal
y
Cen
tral
Gre
ece
Ioni
an Is
land
s
Wes
t Gre
ece
Pel
opon
ese
Atti
ki
Nor
th A
egea
n
Sou
th A
egea
n
Cre
te
Status of Residential Properties
Occupied Vacant For Rent For Sale
Although prices are normalizing, they remain at low levels. Fiscal measures announced by the new government and heightened confidence to the economy are expected to drive real
estate market. The pandemic has shocked global housing prices and the challenge for the Greek real estate market is the level of relative return it can provide to investors.
Source: Bank for International Settlements
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 8 |
6.1 Greece Real Estate Market
Source: Bank of Greece
• House prices have lost over 30% of value compared to peak in nominal terms
• Apartment Indices in Athens and Thessaloniki show that prices are at early stages of recovery
• The impact of the lockdown has not been quantified yet
After 7 years of economy recession, Real Estate market shows signs of recovery.
Source: Bank of Greece
* Region Capital cities except for Athens and Thessaloniki
100.9 96.3
93.2 87.2
76.9
67.5 61.1
57.9 56.8 56.2 57.7 63.8
101.5 95.4 88.4
82.4
71.2 64.7 60.5 57.2 55.3
54.5 55.0
58.850.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Athens and ThessalonikiApartment Index
Athens Thessaloniki
103.3101.3
95.4
91.2
80.7
73.369.7
66.564.6 64.1 64.8
67.8
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other Areas Apartment Index*
96.74 97.52 97.59 99.77 102.51 105.29 108.46 111.94 116.57 118.04
70.26 68.6 67.37 65.58 64.22 63.92 63.56 63.08 63.53 64.51 66.88 70.41
5060708090
100110120
Residential Nominal PricesQuarter Index
Euro Area Residential Nominal Prices (2010=100) Greece Residential Nominal Prices (2010=100)
Golden Visa Scheme has attracted foreign investor interest in channelling funds to Greek residential market. A minimum investment of 250K is required to qualify for the
scheme. The impact of the pandemic and the drop in prices could also be a driver of exogenous demand
Source: Ministry for Migration Policy
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 9 |
6.2 Greece Real Estate Market
Source: Ministry for Migration Policy
• Golden Visa scheme is a driver of demand for residential house prices. Since its inception permits for
individuals seeking to qualify for the scheme have increased at an exponential rate
• Chinese citizens have the lion’s share in residence permits issued and show a preference for residential
assets in the centre of Athens
• On the other hand domestic purchase ability remains weak, predominantly due to lack of access in means
to finance a home purchase
• Fiscal measures announced by the government are expected to increase both domestic demand – in
terms of purchase ability – and foreign demand, as tax burdens on residential properties decrease
Demand for houses is predominantly exogenous, but this is likely to change
Source: Bank of Greece
5.9
8.0
13.6
15.4
12.4
8.06.6
4.5 4.73.3
1.40.7 0.5 0.5 0.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Residential Loans (bn €)
5352
520
379
158
152
120
94
74
64
59
437
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
China
Turkey
Russia
Lebanon
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Ukraine
Jordan
Syria
Other
Residence Permits to InvestorsTop-10 Countries (03/2020)
364781
1267
2226
4107
7187 7414
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20
Residence Permits to InvestorsTImeseries
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 10 |
6.3 Greece Real Estate Market
According to Bank of Greece data, apartments in Athens have continued to
increase in price during the final quarters of 2019. Mean asking prices
during the first quarter of 2020 echo this steady increase which is expected
to come to a halt as transactions freeze and uncertainty risk rises.
On a year on year basis (Q1 2020 to Q1 2019) mean asking prices in
properties in Athens have increased. Piraeus housing market shows signs
of higher demand while prices in Athens are still growing but at lower rates.
Demand for residential properties in Athens remains at high levels
Source: Delfi Analytics, 2020
House Asking Prices (€/sqm)
Q1 2020 Q1 2019 % Change
Athens-Center 1571 1500 5%
Athens North Sub. 2246 2162 4%
Athens South Sub 2593 2500 4%
Athens West Sub 1273 1176 8%
Athens East sub 1518 1450 5%
Piraeus 1444 1302 11%
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 11 |
6.4 Greece Real Estate Market
Rent prices have followed suit but grew at a slower rate than purchase prices. On
average, rent prices continue to exhibit positive slope. Data show that rents have
increased the most in West Suburbs and Piraeus, with rent growth rates showing
mixed signs in different areas of Athens.
During Q1 2020 rent asking prices in Athens centre continue to decrease
compared to Q1 2019 and Q1 2018. Demand for rents picks up steam in other
areas according to table below.
Athens rent prices are also on the upside
Source: Delfi Analytics, 2020
Rent Asking Prices (€/sqm)
Q1 2020 Q1 2019 % Change
Athens-Center 9.44 9.91 -5%
Athens North Sub. 8.39 8 5%
Athens South Sub 10.59 10.7 -1%
Athens West Sub 6.22 5.71 9%
Athens East sub 6.25 5.83 7%
Piraeus 7.6 7 9%
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 12 |
6.5 Greece Real Estate Market
As seen in page 9, apartment prices in Thessaloniki were less convex compared
to Athens prices. Prices in Thessaloniki were more exposed on the downside as
crisis unfolded and slower to bounce back as economy was transitioning to
recovery.
From our data we see mean asking prices at a municipality level increasing at a
staggering 28% on a y-o-y basis. Within the rest of Thessaloniki and its suburbs
growth was at lower rates.
Thessaloniki asking prices grow above national level.
Rent market in Thessaloniki seems less active with rent prices increasing nearly
or above double digits on the regional level.
Highest increase is witnessed outside the Municipality area. Demand for lease
seems to pick up in Rest of Thessaloniki.
Source: Delfi Analytics, 2020
Source: Delfi Analytics, 2020
House Asking Prices (€/sqm)
Q1 2020 Q1 2019 % Change
Thessaloniki - Municipality 1476 1154 28%
Thessaloniki - Suburbs 1120 1037 8%
Rest of Thessaloniki 800 781 2%
Rent Asking Prices (€/sqm)
Q1 2020 Q1 2019 % Change
Thessaloniki - Municipality 7.6 7 9%
Thessaloniki - Suburbs 5.3 4.8 10%
Rest of Thessaloniki 3.8 2.8 36%
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 13 |
6.6 Greece Real Estate Market
The overall map of asking prices shows that on average asking prices in islands
increased but at a slower rate than the national level of 8%, with the exception of
Sporades.
Peak of demand in Corfu is worth noticing as the island is a growing tourist
destination with new hotel investments taking place. Mature primary destinations
such as Cyclades have continued to exhibit positive growth rates.
Asking Prices on Islands are increasing on an average basis.
Source: Delfi Analytics, 2020
House Asking Prices (€/sqm)
Q1 2020 Q1 2019 % Change
Dodecanese 1393 1316 6%
Zante 1536 1500 2%
Corfu 1625 1533 6%
Cyclades 2556 2475 3%
Lesvos 1026 1000 3%
Lefkada 1874 1803 4%
Samos 896 917 -2%
Argosaronikos 1827 1714 7%
Sporades 1750 1473 19%
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 14 |
6.7 Residential Assets Transactions
Transactions are picking up steam after reaching a trough in 2014. Demand is predominantly exogenous and facilitated though the Golden
Visa scheme and the low price levels of Greek residential assets. The line chart below shows a time series of transactions according to
most recent data.
Source:ELSTAT
• Detached Houses Transactions in Attica totalled 1,378 over the past two
years.
• The average Detached House was built in 1974 with a size area of 152
sqm and was sold at 1,146 €/sqm.
• The average House/Apartment was built in 1975 with a size of 73 sqm
and was sold at 687 €/sqm.Source: Ministry of Finance
Includes Houses/Apartments and Detached Houses
Source:Ministry of Finance
* Includes Houses/Apartments and Detached Houses
€ 1,333
€ 479
€ 129
€ - € 200 € 400 € 600 € 800 € 1,000 € 1,200 € 1,400
90th percentile
50th percentile
10th percentile
Transactions Attica RegionResidential Properties* (2017-2018)
Construction Year of
Properties DisposedVolume
Average Price (€)
/Sqm Average Main Area
before 1990 23,490 608 72.40
1990 - 1999 1,117 969 105.40
2000-2019 3950 1,222 95.00
157,978
135,967
117,948
83,665
57,65049,774
43,44354,631
60,54069,826
79,532
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Estate TransactionsCountry Level
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 15 |
6.8 Residential Assets Transactions (2018)
Transactions in Thessaloniki at the Regional and City Level.
Source:Ministry of Finance
• Detached Houses Transactions in Thessaloniki totalled 346 over the
past two years.
• The average Detached House was built in 1979 with a size area of 112
sqm and was sold at 453 €/sqm.
• The average House/Apartment was built in 1977 with a size of 69 sqm
and was sold at 530 €/sqm.Source: Ministry of Finance
Includes Houses/Apartments and Detached Houses in
Region of Thessaloniki
997
426
128
€ - € 200 € 400 € 600 € 800 € 1,000 € 1,200
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Transactions Thessaloniki RegionResidential Properties* (2017-2018)
€ 1,000
€ 429
€ 129
€ - € 200 € 400 € 600 € 800 € 1,000 € 1,200
90th percentile
50th percentile
10th percentile
City of ThessalonikiTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
Source:Ministry of Finance
Construction Year of
Properties DisposedVolume
Average Price (€)
/Sqm Average Main Area
before 1990 6,793 456 68
1990 - 1999 724 673 72
2000-2019 1597 763 81
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 16 |
6.9 Residential Assets Transactions (2018)
Transaction Price/sqm in selected prefectures across Greece. Data include both House/Apartment and Detached
House asset sub-types. (1/2)
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
1,207
576
176
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of ChalkidikiTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
1,044
395
123
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of PiraeusTransaction Price(€)/Sqm
1,411
478
127
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of ChaniaTransaction Price(€)/Sqm
Source: Ministry of Finance
1,555
521
105
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of DodekanisosTransaction Price(€)/Sqm
2,012
684
162
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of CycladesTransaction Price(€)/Sqm
1,308
591
140
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of KerkyraTransaction Price(€)/Sqm
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source Ministry of Finance
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 17 |
6.10 Residential Assets Transactions (2018)
Transaction Price/sqm in selected prefectures across Greece. Data include both House/Apartment and Detached
House asset sub-types. (2/2)
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of FinanceSource: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
834
278
65
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of EvrosTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
748
345
98
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of LarisaTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
946
464
166
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of KorinthiaTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
1,171
386
82
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of MessiniaTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
613
286
56
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of GrevenaTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
638
186
47
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of DramaTransaction Price (€)/Sqm
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 18 |
6.11 Auctions of Residential Assets
E- auctions platform was set up in November 2017 to facilitate auction of properties and reinvigorate the real
estate market by attracting investor bid. Majority of auctioned properties ends up in banks.
E-auctions as of 11/2019 up by 53% compared to 2018, but success rate drops.
Source: E-Auctions platform
• For the year of 2018 Eurobank reported 3,195 properties listed in
auctions, with 45% of them carried out successfully.
• Alpha Bank listed 4,195 properties in auctions (9M2018). During 2018
Alpha Bank created a new unit to facilitate repossession and
management of existing portfolio.
• National bank of Greece auctioned 2,264 properties.
• Piraeus Bank carried out 3,269 auctions during 2018 and seeks to
increase them by 12% according to bank’s financial report notes.
• All banks have their own platform to perform auctions electronically.
Source: E-Auctions platform
0.69
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Auctions Success Rate
Average of 0.65
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
EauctionsMonthly Breakdown
Total Listed Conducted Suspended Canceled
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 19 |
7.0 Greece Office Market
Demand for high-quality office spaces in the centre of Athens or in locations with parking spaces increases.
After a long period of being roughly flat, Office Price index moves towards 2010 levels.
Source: Bank of Greece
• Property and Facility Management is employed in office spaces to retrofit them and adapt them
to modern working environments.
• Projects that were suspended are resuming in support of the view that demand for office spaces
in central locations is increasing. However, new project pipeline is stagnant.
• Rent prices in high visibility areas, such as Kifisias Avenue and Syntagma, are recovering at
faster rate than remaining areas (see Chart) with the exception of assets in Mesogeion Avenue.
• Vacancy rates at prime CBD areas are below 2010 levels.
• The coronavirus impact in office spaces with regards to rents and supply is expected to be
severe. Rent leases are also likely to be affected with companies renting out either smaller
offices (in the scenario of increased employees working from home) or for a shorter time horizon
due to the uncertain impacts of the pandemic on the economy.
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
Source: Bank of Greece
71.4 70.9 71.1 71.0 71.2 71.2 71.0
74.0
76.5
78.9
80.6
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
2014 H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H2 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1
Office Price Index2010=100
72.9
71.7 71.6
70.971.2 71
71.5
72.773.3
73.7
75.5
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
2014 H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H2 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1
Office Rent Index2010=100
26.0
22.0
20.0
18.017.0
16.0 16.5 17.018.0
22.0
18.0
16.0
14.013.0
12.0 12.013.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
14.013.0
11.5 11.010.0 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5
16.015.0
13.5
10.0
18.0
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Office Prime Rent (€/Sqm)
CBD Kifisias Av. Sygrou Av. Mesogeion Av.
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 20 |
7.1 Greece Office Market
Expectation of capital gains does not seem to bring transactions to a halt.
Prime Yields compressing to levels below 7%.
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
• Prime Yields in the last 6 years have compressed by nearly 250 bps.
• In 2019, drop in yields did not always hinder investors from engaging in transactions,
seeking to be compensated by future expected returns from capital gains.
• Due to the coronavirus pandemic there is heightened uncertainty on expected
capital gains from investments in offices.
• Uncertainty is also apparent on how lease contracts will adjust due to the apparent
change in working conditions.
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
Office Market Transactions(2019)
• Trastor REIC
- acquired 372 sqm, 3rd floor space at Othonos str, Athens
- acquired 1,600 sqm office space and retail building in Kifisias Avenue, Chalandri
- acquired 5,070 sqm office building in Mesogeion Avenue, Agia Paraskevi
- acquired 3,386 sqm office building in Marousi
- acquired 4,000 sqm office building in Vrilisia
• Interko REIC
- acquired and leased office building in Marousi with area of 3,589 sqm
- acquired 838 sqm building in Kolonaki
• Briq REIC
- acquired 1,788 office building in Chalandri
- acquired 767 sqm office space in Marousi
- acquired 1,629 sqm building in Kolonaki
Office Market Supply
• Dimand SA completed projects in Kalithea and Piraeus Port Plaza
• Noval’s Orbit building in Kifisias Avenue is under development
• New supply of offices is very limited
9.08.8
8.6
8.3
8.0 7.9
7.0
6.5
6.000
6.500
7.000
7.500
8.000
8.500
9.000
9.500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Office Prime Yields
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 21 |
7.2 Greece Retail Market
Tourism industry has been a driver of growth in certain prime areas, such as Athens (Ermou str).
During 2019, Retail activity picked up in prime areas, while stabilizes in secondary retail areas across
the country.
Source: Bank of Greece
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
• Following a period of long compression, Retail Price Index gains in price along with
the recovery of the economy
• Rents on the other hand remain fairly constant in 2016 levels
• Household consumption is a strong driver of retail revenues. A recession caused by
the Covid-19 will impact retail revenues but it is also likely to disrupt the industry with
e-commerce gaining more ground
• The financial crisis has barely impacted rents in Ermou street. Downward spiral in
prices was of a short duration with prices bouncing back to pre-crisis levels in 2016
and exceeding them in ensuing years
• Highest drop in prices occurred in Kifisia. Rent prices in both Kolonaki and Kifisia are
roughly flat and below pre-crisis levels
Source: Bank of Greece
74.2 74
71.3 71.7 71.2 71.272.1
72.8
74.5
76.779.9
71.4 71.7
69.6 70.169.2 69.1
69.970.6
73.6
77.2
80.8
72.1 72.471.2 70.7
71.6
75.6
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2 2016 H1 2016 H2 2017 H1 2017 H2 2018 H1 2018 H2 2019 H1
Retail Price Index2010=100
General Index Athens Index Thessaloniki Index
71.7
6664.5
62.9 62.6 62.6 62.1 61.9 61.9 61.7 62.4
69.8
64.1
62.561.9 61.8 61.7 61.4
61.561.8
61.2 61.7
76.2
73.5 72.9
69.8 69.1 68.8 68.367.3 66.6 66.3 66.6
55
60
65
70
75
80
2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2 2016 H1 2016 H2 2017 H1 2017 H2 2018 H1 2018 H2 2019 H1
Retail Rent Index2010=100
General Index Athens Index Thessaloniki Index
300.0
250.0230.0
200.0180.0 170.0 160.0 165.0 170.0 180.0
210.0
245.0
280.0 285.0
250.0
220.0
180.0
150.0
110.090.0
80.0
80.0 80.0 85.0 85.0 90.0 90.0
100.0
230.0200.0
130.0115.0 105.0 100.0
90.0
90.0 100.0 105.0 115.0 115.0120.0
180.0
150.0
130.0
100.095.0
100.0
140.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Prime RentHigh Street (€/sqm)
CBD-Ermou CBD-Kolonaki Kifisia Glyfada
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 22 |
7.3 Greece Retail Market
Transactions are focused on prime retail areas, we do not see activity in shopping centers.
Prime Yields compressing to levels below 8%.
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
• Prime Yields in early 2019 have compressed to nearly 6% in Ermou str.
• Economic Sentiment Indicator, a good gauge of economy expectations,
according to Eurostat has further increased in February 2020 to 113.2 from
109.5 in end-2019. In March 2020 ESI dropped to 109.4 (December 2019
levels)
• It is worth mentioning that during the period of 2015 – 2019:
- Super Market retail trade has increased by 2.8%
- Department Stores retail trade has dropped by 11.3%
- Household Equipment retail trade has increased by 7.7%
- FnB dropped by 11.4%
- Retail trade not in stores has increased by 25%
Source: ELSTAT
Retail Market Transactions (2019)
• Pangaea REIC
- acquired 1,608 sqm listed property in Mitropoleos str, Athens
- acquired 736 sqm retail property in Athens
- acquired 2,525 sqm property in Ermou street
- acquired 7,000 sqm office and retail in Sygrou street
• Grivalia REIC
- acquired 4,457 sqm commercial building in Glyfada
• Trastor REIC
- acquired 90 sqm fully leased retail unit in Kifisia
- acquired 1,600 sqm office and retail in Chalandri
- acquired 700 sqm retail property in Chania
7.8
7.6
7.2
76.9
6.5
6.2
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Prime Yields (%)
137.8
127.9
113.9
104.1 103.0100.0
97.999.6
101.7 102.9
98.2
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail TradeOverall Index
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 23 |
7.4 Greece Industrial Market
General Index of Industrial Turnover exhibits increased volatility, driven predominantly by energy sector. We expect an
increase in demand for logistic CRE assets. Sentiment Indicators plummet due to the pandemic.
Prime Yields compressing to levels below 10%.
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
Source: DP Hellas Actual Transaction Data
3.70 3.703.60 3.60 3.60
3.80 3.80 3.803.90
4.00
3.50
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Prime Rent (€) /Sqm
Ag.Stefanos Aspropirgos Koropi Elefsina
Source: ELSTAT
General Index Change – Right Axis
Sectors Change – Left Axis
Source: Eurostat
11.5
11.15
10.75
10.2
9.75
9
8
9
10
11
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Industrial Prime Yields(%)
-4.6
9.8
-5.8
14.4
0.2
-7.7
4.3
-8.2
-0.5
-7.2 -8.0
11.3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-40-30-20-10
0102030
Industrial Turnover Y-o-Y % Change2018-2019
Energy Intermediate Goods Capital Goods
Durable Goods Non Durable Goods General Index
1.70.6 1
1.91.4
22.7
4.5
3.1
-5.6
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Industrial Sentiment IndicatorsMonthly Data
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 24 |
7.4 Commercial Real Estate Transactions
Transactions do not include industrial plot, industrial buildings and special use properties. Transaction price (€) /sqm
ranges are presented for selected areas below.
Ministry of Finance has recorded roughly 5,000 commercial real estate transactions with
an average price of 746 €/ Sqm (2017 – 2018).
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
1,358
476
125
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Athens CRE TransactionPrice (€)/ Sqm
1,020
424
123
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Thessaloniki CRE TransactionPrice (€)/ Sqm
1,574
535
105
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of DodekanisaCRE Transaction Price (€)/ Sqm
Source: Ministry of Finance
957
479
153
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of KorinthiaCRE Transaction Price (€)/Sqm
1,081
395
118
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of PiraeusCRE Transaction Price(€)/Sqm
991
407
100
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
90th Percentile
50th Percentile
10th Percentile
Prefecture of EvvoiaCRE Transaction Price(€)/Sqm
Source: Ministry of Finance
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 25 |
8.0 Greece Infrastructure Projects and Real Estate
Greek Government pledged to complete the project, considering it as vital for the economy.
Hellinikon Project, one of the largest investment projects in Greece, gains pulse
Source: The Hellinikon Project
Project in a Glance
2 million sqm Metropolitan Park
600,000 sqm of common green areas and opens spaces
50 km of path network for pedestrians and cyclists
Facilities will include a Mall, Marina, Sports Facilities,
Seafront area with luxury residences and Luxury Resort
Total investment of 8 bn
10,000 jobs created during construction
75,000 during operation
Expected to attract 1 million visitors
2.4% contribution to GDP
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 26 |
8.1 Greece Strategic Investments and Project Pipeline (2019)
Ministry of Development has granted “Strategic Investment” Status to the following projects:
The pipeline focuses predominantly in the hotel industry and commercial real estate assets.
Killada Hills
• Project Scope: Golf Resort
• Budget: 345 mn €
• Location: Hermioni, Atgolida
• Company: Dolphin Capital Investment
Itanos Gaia
• Project Scope: Hotel
• Budget: 268 mn €
• Location: Crete
• Company: Minoan Group
The following projects have been submitted for “Strategic Investment Status” approval:
Ithaca Odyssey
• Project Scope: Hotel & residential components
• Budget: 650 mn €
• Location: Ithaca
• Company: Smeder LTD
Lentas Resort & Spa
• Project Scope: Tourist complex (317 rooms)
• Budget: 209 mn €
• Location: Gortina,Heraklion Crete
• Company: Atese SA
Cape Tholos
• Project Scope: 5* Hotel with marina
• Budget: 150 mn €
• Location: Gortina,Heraklion Crete
• Company: Amberland SA
Ithaca Resort
• Project Scope: 5* Resort with golf and marina
• Budget: 150 mn €
• Location: Gortina,Heraklion Crete
• Company: Agyia SA
Other projects in pipeline and notable developments include the following:
Scorpio Bay
• Project Scope: Exclusive Club Resort (60 rooms)
• Budget: 165 mn €
• Location: Scorpios
• Company: Mykinai SA
Mitsis Hotel
• Project Scope: Three 5* Hotels (225 rooms)
• Budget: N/A
• Location: Elia, Mykonos
• Company: Mitsis Hotel Group
Retail Mall Gazi
• Project Scope: Redevelop Mall
• Budget: N/A
• Location: Gazi
• Company: Hines (Joint Venture with NBG)
Hotel Acquisition
• Acquiring Co: Blackstone
• Target: Louis Group
• Scope: 5 Hotels in Greece
• Consideration: 178.6 mn €
Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 27 |
10.0 Market Expectations
In the end of 2019 Economic data supported the view of a recovering real estate market. Prices in residential and commercial real estate
assets tagged along GDP growth and exogenous driven demand. Cash transactions showed that the market had still more to give.
Economic activity freezes during lockdown. RE Transactions come to a halt and price impact should be estimated in tandem with the
prolongment of the pandemic and the fear of a second wave of lockdown in winter.
• Projections of a higher than expected recession and lack of monetary policy
tools to counter a prolonged recession
• Travel bans will affect hotels and occupancy rates
• NPL reduction is key to freeing up capital. Not living up to NPL reduction
goals set can limit domestic ability for additional purchase power in
• With regards to fiscal policy intervention economists debate on the potential
inflation risk
• While exiting from the pandemic, Greece has one more arsenal in attracting
capital from abroad: The confidence and credibility it gained while
countering Covid-19
• With house prices remaining even prior to Covid-19 breakout at levels below
peak, the market still remains an attractive candidate for capital allocation
Covid-19 impact on the economy according to economist expectations will
certainly lead to a recession whose severity cannot be safely quantified.
Recession rates estimate from 4% to 10%. To our opinion 10% should be the
baseline.
The impact of the pandemic spirals to global housing prices in an
heterogeneous form. Recovery shape scenarios take more letter forms than U
and V, with the impact on prices having ranges that show the level of the
uncertainty. Inflation levels are expected to remain low. Fiscal and Monetary
Policy mechanisms in the EU are in place, but political will is not strong yet.
Catalysts that can free up real estate market
Domestic demand and more specifically purchase ability with access to
financing is expected to be muted during the pandemic. NPL reduction has
been pushed back by banks at least until H2-2020.
We expect disruptions in the office market due to increase in remote working
and lease term durations. We expect corporations to lease in more flexible
terms with regards to space but also in duration. This should depend on the
ability of employees to work from home at least until a vaccine is found.
Demand for RE assets falls as buyers and sellers wait to see data on the
current status of the market. Opportunities however are still apparent and they
could come in bargain.
Downside risks and opportunities
Delfi Partners & Company | Athens, Greece
Research & Analytics Desk
▪ Greece Office: +30 2169009020
▪ Cyprus Office: +357 22 000060
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The Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its
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As between you and DP, you acknowledge that DP owns or has a license to all title and copyrights in and to the content provided in this presentation. All title and intellectual property rights in and to any licensed content provided in this presentation is
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