Y first half 2020 - Tefficient...tefficient AB 3 September 2020 2 27 operators above 10 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020 Figure 1 shows the average mobile data usage for 116 reporting

tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 3 September 2020 1

Industry analysis #3 2020

Mobile data – first half 2020

40% more gigabytes in spite of the pandemic

But revenue negatively affected: -0.5%

Tefficient’s 28th public

analysis on the

development and drivers of

mobile data ranks 116

operators based on

average data usage per

SIM, total data traffic and

revenue per gigabyte in

the first half of 2020.

The data usage per SIM

grew for basically every

operator. 42% could turn

that data usage growth

into ARPU growth.

It’s a bit lower than in our previous reports and COVID-19 is to blame; many operators did

report negative revenue development in Q2 2020 when travelling stopped and many prepaid

subscriptions expired.

Mobile data traffic continued to grow, though: +40%. Although operators in certain markets

were giving mobile data away to mitigate the negative consequences of lockdowns, most of the

global traffic growth is true, underlying, growth. Data usage actually grew faster in Q2 2020

than in Q1 2020 even though lockdowns mainly affected Q2.

Our industry demonstrated resilience, but now needs to fill the data monetisation toolbox with

more or sharper tools.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Y-o

-y g

row

th in

mo

bil

e d

ata

usa

ge

Average +51% Average +54%


27 operators above 10 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020

Figure 1 shows the average mobile data usage for 116 reporting or reported1 mobile operators globally with

values for the first half of 2020 or the full year of 2019.

Figure 1. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – all operators

As it’s not easy to read Figure 1 we will break it down into three regions of the world, but let’s first identify

the global data usage podium – see Figure 2.

With 33.1 GB2, DNA from Finland reclaims the gold medal. Unlimited, speed-tiered, plans –

both for smartphones and data-only – form a key component of the Finnish market logic. DNA

doesn’t report how large share of its base that has unlimited plans, but for Finland as a whole, that

share was 74% of non-M2M SIMs in December 2019. The Finnish operators all launched 5G in 2019.

1 By regulators – if reported by 3 September 2020 2 Telenor acquired DNA in 2019 and is applying a stricter standard when reporting subscription base than what DNA previous did. This

has elevated the average usage per subscription somewhat. We have applied Telenor’s reporting also retroactively.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

DNA, FI

3, AT

Zain, KW

Elisa, FI

FarEasTone, TW 1)

**LMT, LV

Taiwan Mobile, TW 1)

Nova, IS

Zain, SA

Chunghwa, TW 1)

Zain, BH

**Maxis, MY

**Digi, MY

*Telia, FI

Zain, JO

3, DK

Celcom, MY

Bite, LT 1)

Jio, IN

Telia, LT 1)

**dtac, TH

3 Europe, Group

Telia, DK

**Optus, AU

**AIS, TH

3, SE

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

Plus Cyfrowy Polsat, PL

**Free, FR

Telenor, SE

China Unicom, CN

3, ID

Magenta, AT

Tele2, SE

Tele2, LT 1)

**Play, PL

Vodafone, IT

TDC, DK

Zain, Group

Airtel, IN

**Bouygues, FR

Síminn, IS

China Telecom, CN

Telenor, DK

*A1, AT

*3, UK

China Mobile, CN

Swisscom, CH

**Starhub, SG

Vodafone, TR

SK Telecom, KR

**Entel, CL

XL, ID

**Turkcell, TR

Ice, NO

Indosat, ID

Vodafone, ES

MTS, RU (smartphone)

T-Mobile, NL

***Wind 3, IT

**Beeline, KZ

**MTN Irancell, IR

**Beeline, RU

Orange, PL

Vodafone, IS

Vodafone Idea, IN

Telia, NO

*Iliad, IT

**Türk Telekom, TR (4G-only)

Movistar, CL

Telia, SE

Movistar, ES

Vodafone, PT

Telkomsel, ID

Vodafone, UK

*T-Mobile, PL

Vodafone, RO

**TIM, IT

Movistar, PE

**TIM, BR

**Singtel, SG

**Kyivstar, UA

Smart, PH

Telenor, NO

Vodafone, Group

**Djezzy, DZ

*KPN, NL

Vodafone, DE

Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1)

*Telenet BASE, BE

O2, UK

Dialog, LK

Telenor, Group

O2, DE

**Telekom, DE

**Proximus, BE

**Orange, BE

**VEON, PK

Globe, PH

T-Mobile, CZ

**Beeline, UZ

Vivo, BR

Movistar, AR

Robi, BD

Movistar, MX

Vodafone, GR

**Banglalink, BD

**Grameenphone, BD

**MTN, ZA

Vodafone, EG

Movistar, CO

**MTN, NG

Vodacom, Group

Zain, IQ

Ncell, NP

Zain, SD

GB per reported SIM per month

1H 2020 FY 2019

*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage

***) Traffic calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020


Drei (3) Austria takes the silver medal this time with 29.8 GB. The company carried 41% of

Austria’s total mobile data traffic in Q1 20203. The Austrian home internet plans were pretty much

invented by Drei and come with unlimited, speed-tiered, data. Hybrid routers are now offered

by all operators (A1, Magenta and Drei) to speed up the slow fixed internet that is characteristic for Austria.

Unlimited smartphone plans are though a relatively new thing in Austria – Magenta and A1 (and finally also

Drei) introduced these in 2019. All three have launched 5G; Drei and Magenta in 2019 and A1 early this

year.

Figure 2. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – top 19 operators

The bronze medallist, Zain Kuwait, was our FY 2019 gold medallist, as Zain doesn’t report

mobile data traffic for its affiliates more than once a year4. Zain’s 27.7 GB per SIM per month

in 2019 grants it the third place now that DNA and Drei both exceeded that level for the first half of 2020.

We suspect that if Zain would have reported 1H 2020 too, its usage could have granted it a higher position.

If so, Zain Kuwait might take back the lead when we sum up the full year of 2020. Zain launched 5G in June

2019 and sells smartphone plans with massive buckets – up to 2 TB per month with 5G. Zain is also offering

data-only 5G plans with buckets up to 6 TB – and one truly unlimited 5G data-only plan for 100 KWD per

month (that’s a whopping 277 EUR).

3 Q2 2020 stats not yet available from the regulator, RTR 4 Zain reports traffic for the whole group more frequently, though: In 1H 2020, traffic rose 46%

33,1

29,8

26,2

24,5

23,4

18,6

16,2

14,0

13,2

12,2

11,7

27,2

24,8

27,7

20,7

20,6

24,2

20,1

19,6

19,4

15,5

16,5

11,8

12,0

13,9

13,8

13,6

10,3

8,4

11,4

DNA, FI

3, AT

Zain, KW

Elisa, FI

FarEasTone, TW 1)

**LMT, LV


Nova, IS

Zain, SA

Chunghwa, TW 1)

Zain, BH

**Maxis, MY

**Digi, MY

*Telia, FI

Zain, JO

3, DK

Celcom, MY

Bite, LT 1)

Jio, IN


1H 2020 FY 2019

*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020

1

2

3

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-fy-2019/


Below the podium we find Elisa from Finland (26.2 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020). The Taiwanese

operator FarEasTone is fifth with 24.5 GB in Q1 2020. Latvia’s LMT is #6 based on a communicated

growth figure for 2019, but as LMT’s press department didn’t respond to our question on how the release

should be interpreted, the position of LMT could be exaggerated. Taiwan Mobile (23.4 GB in Q1 2020) is

#7 with Iceland’s unlimited challenger Nova #8 (19.6 GB in 2019). Zain in Saudi Arabia follows as #9. The

top ten ends with Taiwan’s Chunghwa that has significantly lower usage (18.6 GB in Q1 2020) compared to

FarEasTone and Taiwan Mobile.


Europe: Nordic & Baltic operators and ‘3’ dominate the top

Now to the first of three breakdowns: Europe. The number 1 and 2 of the world, DNA Finland and Drei (3)

Austria, top this chart with Elisa being third.

Figure 3. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – European operators

LMT from Latvia is ranked as number 4 (see caveat in previous section). Nova from Iceland is number 5

based on the latest available 2019 data. Telia from Finland follows. Since Telia doesn’t report its mobile

data traffic, we have assigned the country residual to Telia (after having deducted Elisa’s and DNA’s

reported traffic). 3 Denmark is number 7. The two Lithuanian operators Bite and Telia have had strong

usage growth in Q1 2020 and come in as number 8 and 9. Telia Denmark ends the top ten.

The bottom eleven operators are from the low usage markets5 of Greece (Vodafone), Germany (Telekom,

O2, Vodafone), Belgium (Orange, Proximus, Telenet), Czech Republic (T-Mobile) and the Netherlands

5 See our latest country data usage report: https://tefficient.com/arpu-doesnt-follow-usage-upwards-if-we-cant-monetise-gigabytes-

then-what/

33,129,8

26,2

12,211,4

9,99,7

8,98,88,8

8,0

7,1

6,3

4,44,2

3,83,7

2,92,8

2,52,42,32,2

2,01,5

24,219,6

13,913,6

10,710,3

9,69,09,0

8,7

7,67,47,37,3

6,6

5,85,6

5,15,1

4,94,8

4,64,4

4,1

3,13,0

2,82,8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

DNA, FI

3, AT

Elisa, FI

**LMT, LV

Nova, IS

*Telia, FI

3, DK

Bite, LT 1)

Telia, LT 1)

Telia, DK

3, SE


**Free, FR

Telenor, SE

Magenta, AT

Tele2, SE

Tele2, LT 1)

**Play, PL

Vodafone, IT

TDC, DK

**Bouygues, FR

Síminn, IS

Telenor, DK

*A1, AT

*3, UK

Swisscom, CH

Ice, NO

Vodafone, ES

T-Mobile, NL

***Wind 3, IT

Orange, PL

Vodafone, IS

Telia, NO

*Iliad, IT

Telia, SE

Movistar, ES

Vodafone, PT

Vodafone, UK

*T-Mobile, PL

Vodafone, RO

**TIM, IT

Telenor, NO

*KPN, NL

Vodafone, DE


*Telenet BASE, BE

O2, UK

O2, DE

**Telekom, DE

**Proximus, BE

**Orange, BE

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, GR


1H 2020 FY 2019

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage

***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020

https://tefficient.com/arpu-doesnt-follow-usage-upwards-if-we-cant-monetise-gigabytes-then-what/https://tefficient.com/arpu-doesnt-follow-usage-upwards-if-we-cant-monetise-gigabytes-then-what/


(Vodafone Ziggo, KPN). O2 UK whose parent company Telefónica stopped reporting mobile data traffic in

2020 completes the bottom eleven.

Who is having the fastest usage growth in Europe? It’s Telia Lithuania

with 130%6 – from just 4.9 GB per month in 1H 2019 to 11.4 GB per

month in Q1 2020. In the last years, Telia launched new propositions that

encourage mobile data usage: It offers a premium unlimited plan, but is

also selling time-limited unlimited: 4 EUR for a day or 9 EUR for a

week – on top of your regular plan. In addition, customers on the FMC plan, Telia One, get their bucket

allowance doubled. Although the mobile data usage of Telia’s Lithuanian competitors also is growing fast –

Bite 68% and Tele2 44% between 1H 2019 and Q1 2020 – Telia’s growth was much faster.

Other European operators with fast usage growth are T-Mobile Czech Republic with

117%, Vodafone Spain with 81%, Vodafone Italy with 78% and Vodafone

Portugal with 67%. Introductions of unlimited mobile data are behind all of these.

We find it interesting that Vodafone’s speed-tiered unlimited model – see current

offering from Vodafone Spain below – seems to have spiralled usage in South Europe

particularly. In the UK, where it also has been introduced, Vodafone’s usage grew

50%.

6 In their case from 1H 2019 to Q1 2020 as Telia doesn’t report mobile data traffic and the regulator has not yet reported Q2 2020

Vodafone’s speed-

tiered unlimited

drives usage


Asia and China: Taiwan fills the podium – but Malaysia on the move

As in out last report, the three Taiwanese operators FarEasTone, Taiwan Mobile and Chunghwa7 hold

the top three usage positions in Asia and China. A total of five operators offering very cheap unlimited plans

continue to drive Taiwan’s traffic. 5G has just been launched a few months ago, but the operators are

rolling out coverage very fast and it’s likely that the Taiwanese usage leadership will remain in 2020.

Malaysia’s leading operators Maxis, Digi and Celcom follow. Unlimited plans are becoming more common

in Malaysia taken to the market by the fourth operator, U Mobile8. 5G is however not yet available in

Malaysia after a licensing hiccup in 2020.

India’s Jio is now number 7.

Figure 4. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – Asian and Chinese operators

The Asian/Chinese operators with the fastest growth in mobile data usage in 1H 2020 are:

VEON Pakistan +105%

7 The operators aren’t reporting their mobile data traffic themselves; it is being reported by the regulator with a certain delay. There are

two other Taiwanese operators, T Star and Gt, but they are just reported together as ’other’ and hence not shown here. 8 Regretfully not reporting

24,5

23,4

18,6

16,2

14,0

13,2

11,7

11,2

10,4

10,3

10,1

9,6

9,1

8,1

7,4

7,2

7,0

6,7

6,3

4,9

4,3

3,5

3,2

2,6

2,2

2,1

1,7

1,3

1,3

0,7

6,8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

FarEasTone, TW 1)


Chunghwa, TW 1)

**Maxis, MY

**Digi, MY

Celcom, MY

Jio, IN

**dtac, TH

**Optus, AU

**AIS, TH

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

China Unicom, CN

3, ID

Airtel, IN

China Telecom, CN

China Mobile, CN

**Starhub, SG

SK Telecom, KR

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

Vodafone Idea, IN

Telkomsel, ID

**Singtel, SG

Smart, PH

Dialog, LK

**VEON, PK

Globe, PH

Robi, BD

**Banglalink, BD

**Grameenphone, BD

Ncell, NP


1H 2020 FY 2019

**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020


Ncell Nepal +83%

Smart Philippines +82%

Dialog Sri Lanka +77%

Airtel India +73%

The slowest growth is with Jio – just 5%. Having said that, Jio is still top-ranked in

India with 11.7 GB per month. Airtel had 8.1 GB and Vodafone Idea 4.9 GB. But

competition is coming closer: Airtel’s growth was 73% and Vodafone Idea’s 69%.

Usage generally

grows quickly in

Asia and China –

except for Jio


RoW: Zain dominates the top

The rest of world ranking combines Latin American and Russian/CIS operators with operators from Middle

East, Africa and reporting international groups, see Figure 5.

Figure 5. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – RoW operators

The world number 3, Zain Kuwait, tops this chart. Actually all of the top four operators are Zain

operations. Zain Group is though just ranked as number 6, showing that two Zain operations, Iraq and

Sudan, pull that group average down significantly. Two thirds of the subscriptions in Zain Group are in these

two countries.

3 Europe Group is ranked as number five and it’s easy to see why; in the European comparison (Figure 3),

several operations of ‘3’ are top-ranked: Austria, Denmark and Sweden.

Russian and Turkish operators have relatively high usage and the growth is still good. The Latin American

operators have – with the exception of Entel Chile9 – fairly low average usage.

It is a pity that none of the US or Canadian operators report their data traffic or usage. If they did, their

usage would have been shown in this chart.

9 Thanks to Joaquin Guerrero for hinting that Entel Chile could be added to our analysis

10,8

8,4

6,9

6,8

6,7

6,1

5,6

5,4

5,1

4,8

3,6

3,3

3,1

3,0

2,0

1,2

1,2

1,0

0,8

27,7

19,4

16,5

13,8

4,8

3,6

2,5

1,9

1,9

1,6

1,2

0,8

0,7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Zain, KW

Zain, SA

Zain, BH

Zain, JO

3 Europe, Group

Zain, Group

Vodafone, TR

**Entel, CL

**Turkcell, TR


**Beeline, KZ

**MTN Irancell, IR

**Beeline, RU


Movistar, CL

Movistar, PE

**TIM, BR

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, Group

**Djezzy, DZ

Telenor, Group

**Beeline, UZ

Vivo, BR

Movistar, AR

Movistar, MX

**MTN, ZA

Vodafone, EG

Movistar, CO

**MTN, NG

Vodacom, Group

Zain, IQ

Zain, SD


1H 2020 FY 2019

**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage


African operators are – together with Zain Iraq and Movistar Colombia – having the lowest monthly data

usage per SIM in our sample.

These are the RoW operators with the fastest growth in mobile data usage in 1H 2020:

MTN Nigeria +109%

Djezzy Algeria +104%

Vodacom Group +83%

MTN Irancell Iran +77%

Kyivstar Ukraine +75%

Turkcell Turkey +75%

MTN South Africa +75%

Usage grows

quickly in sub-

Saharan Africa,

Algeria, Iran and

Turkey


Traffic growth continued in the midst of the pandemic

We have seen that the data usage varies much between customers of different operators in different

countries. If we instead compare the total data traffic, the large population differences between the

countries make the spread even wider, see Figure 6.

Figure 6. Total data traffic – all operators

As it’s difficult to read Figure 6 we will in a bit break it down into the three regions of the world, but let’s first

identify the global data traffic leaders – see Figure 7.

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

China Mobile, CN

Jio, IN

China Unicom, CN

China Telecom, CN

Airtel, IN

Vodafone Idea, IN

Vodafone, Group

Telkomsel, ID

Telenor, Group


**AIS, TH

3 Europe, Group

Zain, Group

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

3, ID

SK Telecom, KR

**Beeline, RU

**MTN Irancell, IR

**Turkcell, TR

Smart, PH

**dtac, TH

**TIM, BR

Chunghwa, TW 1)

Zain, SA

FarEasTone, TW 1)


Vivo, BR

Globe, PH

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

Vodafone, IT

Vodafone, TR

**Maxis, MY

**Digi, MY

***Wind 3, IT

**Bouygues, FR

**VEON, PK

**Free, FR


**TIM, IT

**Telekom, DE

**Play, PL

O2, DE


Celcom, MY

**Optus, AU

Elisa, FI

Movistar, ES

Orange, PL

Zain, KW

*3, UK

**Grameenphone, BD

3, AT

DNA, FI

O2, UK

Vodafone, DE

Vodafone, ES

Robi, BD

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, UK

Magenta, AT

Zain, JO

Movistar, PE

*T-Mobile, PL

*Telia, FI

Vodacom, Group

**MTN, NG

**Entel, CL

Movistar, MX

**Beeline, KZ

Movistar, CL

Vodafone, EG

*A1, AT

Swisscom, CH

Tele2, SE

Movistar, AR

T-Mobile, NL

**LMT, LV

**Banglalink, BD

**Djezzy, DZ

Telia, SE

TDC, DK

Dialog, LK

**MTN, ZA

Vodafone, RO

Telenor, SE

3, SE

*Iliad, IT

Movistar, CO

*KPN, NL

3, DK

Vodafone, PT

**Beeline, UZ

**Starhub, SG

**Singtel, SG

Telia, DK

Telenor, NO

Tele2, LT 1)


**Proximus, BE

Telia, LT 1)

T-Mobile, CZ

Ncell, NP

**Orange, BE

Zain, IQ

Telenor, DK

Zain, BH

Telia, NO

Zain, SD

*Telenet BASE, BE

Bite, LT 1)

Vodafone, GR

Ice, NO

Nova, IS

Síminn, IS

Vodafone, IS

Mobile data traffic [Petabyte]

1H 2020 FY 2019




Figure 7. Total data traffic – top 16 operators

China Mobile has 947 million mobile subscribers (of which 70 million on 5G plans) and is,

by far, the largest operator in the world in mobile data traffic. Its total handset traffic grew

38% from 1H 2019 to 1H 2020 – which actually is a slowdown.

The Indian challenger Jio is now the operator with the largest subscriber base in India – 398 million.

Jio’s data traffic growth in 1H 2020 was 32%. Airtel India had a traffic growth of 73% whereas the

Vodafone Idea had 40%. As shown in the previous section on usage, Jio’s usage per SIM didn’t grow much

in 1H 2020 – just 5%. Jio’s traffic growth is instead mainly coming from growth in subscription base.

China Unicom is the Chinese operator with the highest average usage per subscription.

Compared to China Mobile, Unicom’s subscription base is small, though: Just 310 million. Even

China Telecom has a larger base now (346 million). The total handset data traffic of Unicom grew slower

than China Mobile’s and China Telecom’s: 23% in 1H 2020. A side remark is that China Unicom, unlike its

two competitors, hasn’t started reporting its 5G subscription base yet.

Note that Vodafone Group (excluding India) only comes in as number 7 even though it consists of about

20 countries. It says something about the size of the Chinese and Indian operations.

41140

27040

18026

15119

13693

8613

4872

4255

2846

2572

2560

2445

2274

2217

1760

65890

44560

31621

24369

18273

13452

7214

6715

5500

4397

3753

4054

3744

3400

3211

2637

China Mobile, CN

Jio, IN

China Unicom, CN

China Telecom, CN

Airtel, IN

Vodafone Idea, IN

Vodafone, Group

Telkomsel, ID

Telenor, Group


**AIS, TH

3 Europe, Group

Zain, Group

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

3, ID


1H 2020 FY 2019


1

2

3


Europe: Italy, France and Poland take the first six positions

First to the European breakdown: Since the highest ranked European operator is just number 31 in our

global rank, we could generally conclude that the European countries are less populated than the global

leaders – but also that growth is significantly faster outside of Europe. And it’s not the operators that you

necessarily would suspect (with the largest SIM base) that are in the top of Figure 8.

Figure 8. Total data traffic – European operators

Of reporting operators, Vodafone Italy is now Europe’s largest operator in total data traffic. Its competitor

Wind 3 is no longer reporting but based on our calculation for 201910 we think Wind 3 could be the actual

leader, but here shown as number 2 to encourage the company to start reporting again. Italy has had an

explosion in mobile data usage ever since the new fourth operator, Iliad, launched 30 GB for 5.99 EUR in

May 2018 – and all of competition copied.

10 CK Hutchison has taken over the full ownership of Wind 3 and as it was their previous shareholder VEON that reported data usage,

we miss input from Wind 3. In this analysis we have for 2019 assigned the residual traffic of 3 Europe Group after having subtracted

the calculated traffic of UK, Denmark, Austria, Sweden and Ireland.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Vodafone, IT

***Wind 3, IT

**Bouygues, FR

**Free, FR


**TIM, IT

**Telekom, DE

**Play, PL

O2, DE

Elisa, FI

Movistar, ES

Orange, PL

*3, UK

3, AT

DNA, FI

O2, UK

Vodafone, DE

Vodafone, ES

Vodafone, UK

Magenta, AT

*T-Mobile, PL

*Telia, FI

*A1, AT

Swisscom, CH

Tele2, SE

T-Mobile, NL

**LMT, LV

Telia, SE

TDC, DK

Vodafone, RO

Telenor, SE

3, SE

*Iliad, IT

*KPN, NL

3, DK

Vodafone, PT

Telia, DK

Telenor, NO

Tele2, LT 1)


**Proximus, BE

Telia, LT 1)

T-Mobile, CZ

**Orange, BE

Telenor, DK

Telia, NO

*Telenet BASE, BE

Bite, LT 1)

Vodafone, GR

Ice, NO

Nova, IS

Síminn, IS

Vodafone, IS


1H 2020 FY 2019




The two French operators Bouygues and Free follow11. The Polish operator Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat is

number 5 and Italy’s TIM number 6. The mobile data usage reporting of Telekom Germany is dubious12,

but our calculations suggest that Telekom is narrowly ahead of Play from Poland, O2 Germany and Elisa

from Finland.

The operators with the fastest traffic growth in Europe are:

T-Mobile Czech Republic +118%

Vodafone Spain +79%

Vodafone Portugal +65%

Vodafone Italy +64%

O2 Germany +58%

11 Orange and SFR could have been high-ranked as well, but aren’t reporting data traffic or usage 12 Telekom reports usage only for its highest usage segment, T-branded B2C subscriptions, but as both competitors Vodafone and O2

do report mobile data traffic, we can check against the German total, as reported by the regulator BNetzA, every year

Vodafone’s speed-

tiered unlimited

drives fast traffic

growth in Spain,

Portugal and Italy


Asia and China: Quick traffic growth

We find the six global traffic leaders in the top of the Asian/Chinese comparison: China Mobile, Jio, China

Unicom, China Telecom, Airtel and Vodafone Idea. The 1H 2019 to 1H 2020 growth rates have come

down a bit for these operators (23%-73%).

Figure 9. Total data traffic – Asian and Chinese operators

The Indonesian operators (Telkomsel, XL, Indosat and 3) and the Thai operator AIS follow.

The fastest growth in mobile data traffic in Asia/China is with these operators:

VEON, Pakistan +119%

Smart Philippines +104%

Dialog Sri Lanka +88%

Ncell Nepal +82%

Airtel India +73%

Grameenphone Bangladesh +73%

Banglalink Bangladesh +72%

Robi Bangladesh +72%

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

China Mobile, CN

Jio, IN

China Unicom, CN

China Telecom, CN

Airtel, IN

Vodafone Idea, IN

Telkomsel, ID

**AIS, TH

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

3, ID

SK Telecom, KR

Smart, PH

**dtac, TH

Chunghwa, TW 1)

FarEasTone, TW 1)


Globe, PH

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

**Maxis, MY

**Digi, MY

**VEON, PK

Celcom, MY

**Optus, AU

**Grameenphone, BD

Robi, BD

**Banglalink, BD

Dialog, LK

**Starhub, SG

**Singtel, SG

Ncell, NP


1H 2020 FY 2019


Fastest traffic

growth in Pakistan,

Philippines, Sri

Lanka, Nepal and

Bangladesh – and

Airtel India


RoW: MTS larger than 3 Europe Group and Zain Group

Figure 10 collects operators from the rest of the world, but also a few reporting international groups.

Figure 10. Total data traffic – Rest of world operators

Vodafone Group and Telenor Group are number 1 and 2 in this RoW ranking. The other two groups, 3

Europe and Zain, are ranked as number 4 and 5. (Vodacom Group is number 18, but also part of Vodafone

Group).

The Russian operator MTS is number three whereas Beeline (#6) has significantly lower traffic. Turkish,

Brazilian and Saudi operators follow – together with MTN Irancell.

The operators with the fastest growth in mobile data traffic in 1H 2020 are:

MTN Nigeria +137%

MTN Irancell Iran +86%

Djezzy Algeria +85%

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Vodafone, Group

Telenor, Group


3 Europe, Group

Zain, Group

**Beeline, RU

**MTN Irancell, IR

**Turkcell, TR

**TIM, BR

Zain, SA

Vivo, BR

Vodafone, TR


Zain, KW

**Kyivstar, UA

Zain, JO

Movistar, PE

Vodacom, Group

**MTN, NG

**Entel, CL

Movistar, MX

**Beeline, KZ

Movistar, CL

Vodafone, EG

Movistar, AR

**Djezzy, DZ

**MTN, ZA

Movistar, CO

**Beeline, UZ

Zain, IQ

Zain, BH

Zain, SD


1H 2020 FY 2019



How much money can you make on mobile data?

The way we calculate revenue per gigabyte – total mobile service revenue per carried gigabyte – will

resonate with mature markets where operators generally aren’t attempting to monetise voice and SMS

based on usage. Instead they have made voice and messaging allowances unlimited and included them in a

flat fee.

In maturing markets, usage-based monetisation is still used to a higher degree. This is true also for voice

and messaging. With our calculation method, one might think that the operators ending up with the highest

effective revenue per gigabyte would thus be operators from maturing markets. You do find Zain Iraq in the

lower part of Figure 11 – but otherwise the operators with the highest revenue per GB are from six

European countries: Greece, Belgium, Norway, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK.

Figure 11. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – all operators13

We will – for readability reasons – soon break Figure 11 down into Europe, Asia/China and RoW, but let’s

first look into a disclaimer with regards to operators marked with * or **.

13 That also report mobile service revenue

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Jio, IN

Airtel, IN

3, ID

Indosat, ID

**MTN Irancell, IR

Vodafone Idea, IN

XL, ID

**LMT, LV

**Beeline, KZ

DNA, FI

China Unicom, CN


FarEasTone, TW 1)

Smart, PH

**Digi, MY

3, AT

**VEON, PK

Telkomsel, ID

**AIS, TH

**dtac, TH

Telia, LT 1)

Elisa, FI

Zain, JO


**Maxis, MY

Chunghwa, TW 1)

**Kyivstar, UA

China Telecom, CN

Robi, BD

Vodafone, TR

Globe, PH

**Beeline, RU

Celcom, MY

Tele2, LT 1)

China Mobile, CN

**Banglalink, BD

**Play, PL

Zain, Group


**Beeline, UZ

Bite, LT 1)

Magenta, AT

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, KW

Orange, PL

Dialog, LK

**Djezzy, DZ

**TIM, BR

3, DK

Movistar, PE

**Grameenphone, BD

**Free, FR

*Telia, FI

**Entel, CL

Telenor, Group

3 Europe, Group

**Optus, AU

Vodafone, IT

Movistar, CL

*T-Mobile, PL

Telia, DK

***Wind 3, IT

3, SE

*Iliad, IT

Vodafone, RO

Movistar, MX

**Bouygues, FR

Tele2, SE

TDC, DK

*A1, AT

Telenor, SE

*3, UK

**Starhub, SG

Zain, SD

Ncell, NP

Telenor, DK

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

Vodafone, EG

Vodafone, ES

**TIM, IT

Vodafone, Group

T-Mobile, NL

Movistar, AR

Movistar, CO

SK Telecom, KR

Vivo, BR

Ice, NO

Vodafone, UK

O2, DE

**MTN, NG

Vodafone, PT

Telia, SE

**MTN, ZA

**Singtel, SG

**Telekom, DE

T-Mobile, CZ

Swisscom, CH

Vodacom, Group

Vodafone, DE

*Telenet BASE, BE

**Proximus, BE

O2, UK


Telia, NO

*KPN, NL

Zain, IQ

Telenor, NO

**Orange, BE

Vodafone, GR

Total mobile service revenue per GB [EUR]

1H 2020 FY 2019*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators

**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Traffic calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations

1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020


Having explained this, let’s now in Figure 11 identify the ten operators that get the lowest total mobile

service revenue per gigabyte in the world:

1H 2020 FY 2019

1. Jio, India 0.1 EUR 0.1 EUR

2. Airtel, India 0.2 EUR 0.3 EUR

3. 3, Indonesia 0.3 EUR 0.3 EUR

4. Indosat, Indonesia 0.3 EUR 0.4 EUR

5. MTN Irancell, Iran** 0.3 EUR 0.6 EUR

6. Vodafone Idea, India 0.3 EUR 0.4 EUR

7. XL, Indonesia 0.3 EUR 0.4 EUR

8. LMT, Latvia** n/a 0.4 EUR

9. Beeline, Kazakhstan** 0.5 EUR n/a

10. DNA, Finland 0.5 EUR 0.6 EUR

These operators are either active in mature high data usage markets (Finland, Taiwan) or in highly

competitive maturing markets (India, Indonesia). You also find MTN Irancell, LMT Latvia and Beeline from

Kazakhstan in the list.

When reporting mobile data traffic, take inspiration from Vodafone – but no longer from Telefónica

Most graphs in this analysis carry this legend:

*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators


There are a number of operators globally that, in their regular easy-to-use Excel sheets, report their total mobile data traffic

quarter by quarter. Of the larger operators groups, Vodafone is a good example. We encourage all operators to follow it.

Telefónica reported traffic too, but that good practice was regretfully abandoned entirely in 2020.

Some operators are instead reporting – or occasionally indicating – data usage. These are the operators marked with **. The

problem here is that many operators aren’t defining what a user is – sometimes it is all users, sometimes “active data users”

(whatever that is), sometimes smartphone users, sometimes branded smartphone users, sometimes postpaid users, sometimes

4G users. Typically these usage numbers are stated to impress, i.e. they are representative only for a smaller, high-usage,

segment of the subscriber base. Exceptions to that operators reporting usage aren’t reporting the number of associated users are

e.g. VEON Group, MTN Group and AIS that report the usage per mobile data customer and the number of such mobile data

customers (a subset of the total customer base). Well done.

The majority of operators are still not reporting anything, though. Orange Group and Telia Company are such examples. And, of

course, all North American carriers. In some cases, country regulators are helpful in reporting a breakdown per operator. But in

most cases, the country regulator is just reporting the total. In such occasions – and if also all other operators report data traffic or

at least usage – we have calculated the country residual and assumed that this traffic equals that of the non-reporting operator.

These are the operators marked with *.

It’s not necessarily so that a regulator and the reporting operators use exactly the same definition when reporting data traffic.

Traffic via MVNOs or roaming traffic can e.g. disturb the comparability. Where the error risks to be the largest, though, is in

countries where the country residual has been assigned to a *-marked operator while, at the same time, one or several of the

other operators are **-marked operators, i.e. have not explicitly reported the total data traffic but some type of usage.

So if any operator (*-marked or **-marked) is unhappy with its calculated data traffic, the solution is simple: Start to report your

total mobile data traffic. We will cheer when Telefónica starts with it again,


The ten operators that get the highest total mobile service revenue per gigabyte in the world are:

1H 2020 FY 2019

1. Vodafone, Greece 9.9 EUR 11.6 EUR

2. Orange, Belgium** 8.2 EUR 10.8 EUR

3. Telenor, Norway n/a 8.1 EUR

4. Zain, Iraq n/a 6.4 EUR

5. KPN, Netherlands* n/a 6.3 EUR

6. Telia, Norway n/a 6.1 EUR

7. Vodafone Ziggo, Netherlands 1) 5.8 EUR 7.0 EUR 1) 1H 2020=Q1 2020

8. O2, UK n/a 5.7 EUR

9. Proximus, Belgium** 5.3 EUR 7.3 EUR

10. Telenet BASE, Belgium* n/a 4.9 EUR

In our mature market focused country analysis you can identify Belgium, Germany, Greece, Norway and the

Netherlands as some of the country markets (of the covered) with the highest revenue per gigabyte so this

list seems plausible.

We conclude that there in 1H 2020 there was 70x difference between the operator with the highest total

service revenue per gigabyte (Vodafone Greece) and the operator with the lowest (Jio India).

https://tefficient.com/usage-up-but-monetisation-falters/


Europe: Wide spread in the revenue per GB

Figure 12 shows the European breakdown. Since European operators played both in the bottom and in top

of the global chart, the spread is almost as large as in the global view. To ease comparability, the scale is

kept intact throughout this section.

Figure 12. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – European operators

As pointed out in the global section, Greek, Belgian, Norwegian, German, Dutch and UK operators play in the

bottom of the graph – where the total service revenue per consumed gigabyte is high. In the other end of

the scale – where the revenue per gigabyte is low – we find operators from Latvia, Finland, Austria,

Lithuania and Poland.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

**LMT, LV

DNA, FI

3, AT

Telia, LT 1)

Elisa, FI

Tele2, LT 1)

**Play, PL

Bite, LT 1)

Magenta, AT

Orange, PL

3, DK

**Free, FR

*Telia, FI

Vodafone, IT

*T-Mobile, PL

Telia, DK

***Wind 3, IT

3, SE

*Iliad, IT

Vodafone, RO

**Bouygues, FR

Tele2, SE

TDC, DK

*A1, AT

Telenor, SE

*3, UK

Telenor, DK

Vodafone, ES

**TIM, IT

T-Mobile, NL

Ice, NO

Vodafone, UK

O2, DE

Vodafone, PT

Telia, SE

**Telekom, DE

T-Mobile, CZ

Swisscom, CH

Vodafone, DE

*Telenet BASE, BE

**Proximus, BE

O2, UK


Telia, NO

*KPN, NL

Telenor, NO

**Orange, BE

Vodafone, GR


1H 2020 FY 2019

*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage

***) Traffic calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) FY 2020 = Q1 2020


Asia and China: Revenue per GB decreasing, but not as fast as before

Figure 13 shows the Asian and Chinese operators. Indian and Indonesian operators have the lowest revenue

per gigabyte whereas no operator is having very high revenue.

Figure 13. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – Asian and Chinese operators

The erosion in revenue per gigabyte in Asia/China is no longer as quick as it has been in our previous

reports. In most cases, data usage has reached new highs – of these operators, only Nepal’s Ncell was

below 1 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Jio, IN

Airtel, IN

3, ID

Indosat, ID

Vodafone Idea, IN

XL, ID

China Unicom, CN


FarEasTone, TW 1)

Smart, PH

**Digi, MY

**VEON, PK

Telkomsel, ID

**AIS, TH

**dtac, TH

**Maxis, MY

Chunghwa, TW 1)

China Telecom, CN

Robi, BD

Globe, PH

Celcom, MY

China Mobile, CN

**Banglalink, BD

Dialog, LK

**Grameenphone, BD

**Optus, AU

**Starhub, SG

Ncell, NP

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

SK Telecom, KR

**Singtel, SG


1H 2020 FY 2019



RoW: Big drop in revenue per GB in certain maturing markets

We are ending this section with Figure 14 – showing the operators in the rest of the world alongside a few

groups that separate out mobile service revenue in their reporting.

Figure 14. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – rest of world operators

MTN Irancell, Beeline Kazakhstan, Russian operators, Kyivstar from Ukraine, Turkish operators and Zain’s

Middle East operations dominate the top of the chart where revenues are the lowest per gigabyte. Latin

American operators clutter below the middle of the chart whereas sub-Saharan operators and Zain Iraq

populate the bottom of the graph.

MTN Nigeria, Djezzy from Algeria, MTN Irancell and MTN South Africa had very significant drops (around

50%) in the revenue per gigabyte in 1H 2020.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

**MTN Irancell, IR

**Beeline, KZ

Zain, JO


**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, TR

**Beeline, RU


**Beeline, UZ

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, KW

**Djezzy, DZ

**TIM, BR

Movistar, PE

**Entel, CL

Telenor, Group

3 Europe, Group

Movistar, CL

Movistar, MX

Zain, SD

Vodafone, EG

Vodafone, Group

Movistar, AR

Movistar, CO

Vivo, BR

**MTN, NG

**MTN, ZA

Zain, IQ


1H 2020 FY 2019



The revenue per GB vs. usage chart

Let us now combine the revenue per gigabyte with the usage. Those of you that have read our data usage

and revenue analyses before are familiar with the revenue per GB vs. usage chart, see Figure 15.

Figure 15. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per Gbyte

With all those markers, we have not been able to highlight all operators. The amber line is not a regression

line, but illustrates where 15 EUR of ARPU is earned. Operators above the line earn more – and operators

below the line less than 15 EUR.

Most mature markets operators operate with an APRU of around 15 EUR. Many operators in maturing

markets clutter in the southwest or south parts of the chart.

Elisa, FI

DNA, FI

Vodafone, DEO2, DE

3, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, UK

**Proximus, BE **Orange, BE

Vodafone, IT

**TIM, IT

Vodafone, ES


Vodafone, GR

Vodafone, PT

**Free, FR

**Bouygues, FR

Swisscom, CH

Bite, LT 1)

MTS, RU**Beeline, RU

Türk Telekom, TR

**Beeline, UZVodafone, EG

**Djezzy, DZ

**MTN Irancell, IR

**MTN, NG**MTN, ZA

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**LG Uplus, KR 1)

LG U+, KR 1)

FarEasTone, TW 1)

Chungwha, TW 1)


Vodafone, Group

3 Europe, Group

Vodacom, Group

Zain, Group

Ncell, NP

Vodafone Idea, IN

**Grameenph, BD

**VEON, PK

**Banglalink, BD

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Telkomsel, ID

XL, ID

Robi, BD

Dialog, LK

Indosat, ID

3, ID

China Telecom, CN

China Unicom, CN

China Mobile, CN

Smart, PH

**AIS, TH**dtac, TH

**Digi, MY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GB

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

, 1

H 2

02

0

Total mobile service revenue per GB, 1H 2020 [EUR]

15 EUR ARPU line

*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Traffic calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020


The ARPU vs. usage chart

One could criticise the previous chart for comparing the number of gigabytes with something that relates to

it – the revenue per gigabyte. Our next chart, Figure 16, is therefore comparing the number of gigabytes

with the revenue per subscription, i.e. the ARPU. And that is perhaps even more interesting.

Figure 16. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per SIM

Of all the operators there are two14 – Swisscom and LG U+ – that enjoy much higher total mobile service

revenue per SIM than all other operators. In the case of LG U+ the data consumption is also quite high.

Swisscom’s subscribers – although many are on speed-tiered unlimited plans – are not using particularly

much data, but the ARPU is the highest – by far – in this group of reporting operators.

In the middle top of the graph there is a cluster of operators with very high average data usage but

moderate ARPU of about 15-20 EUR. Here we find the Finnish and the Taiwanese operators together with

Drei (3) Austria and Malaysian operators.

14 Of the operators that have reported data usage and mobile service revenue in 1H 2020. This leaves out high ARPU operators in e.g.

Canada, USA and Norway as not reported.

Elisa, FI

DNA, FI

Vodafone, DE

3, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, UK

**Play, PL

**Proximus, BE **Orange, BE

Vodafone, IT

**TIM, IT

Vodafone, ES


Vodafone, GR

Vodafone, PT

**Free, FR

**Bouygues, FR

Swisscom, CH

Telia, LT 1)

Bite, LT 1)

Tele2, LT 1)

MTS, RU

Türk Telekom, TR

Vodafone, TR

**Beeline, UZ

**Beeline, KZ

**Djezzy, DZ

**MTN Irancell, IR

**MTN, ZA

**Entel, CL

**TIM, BR

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**Starhub, SG

LG U+, KR 1)

FarEasTone, TW 1)

Chunghwa, TW 1)


**Optus, AU3 Europe, Group

Vodacom, Group

Zain, Group

Ncell, NP

Vodafone Idea, IN

**VEON, PK

**Banglalink, BD

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Telkomsel, ID

XL, ID

Robi, BD

Dialog, LK

Indosat, ID

3, ID

China Telecom, CN

China Unicom, CN

China Mobile, CN

Smart, PH

**AIS, TH

**dtac, TH

**Digi, MY

R² = 0,2041

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

GB

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

, 1

H 2

02

0

Total mobile service revenue per SIM per month, 1H 2020 [EUR]

15 EUR ARPU line*) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Traffic calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020


And then there’s Jio. Its ARPU isn’t the lowest, but considering an average data usage of almost 12 GB per

month, Jio is still the affordability leader of the world.

The grey regression line suggests that operators with higher data usage have

higher ARPU.

To moderate this, one has to realise that the adherence to this line (shown by a R2

value below 1) isn’t perfect. And we should also remember that the line visualises an

international – not a national – trend: It is quite difficult to find national examples

showing that operators with higher data usage enjoy higher ARPU. If anything, it’s

rather the opposite. It’s typically the challenger operator that has the customers with

the highest data usage and challenger operators tend to have lower ARPU than

incumbents.

International trend:

Operators with

higher data usage

tend to have higher

ARPU


Dressing the Christmas tree

Absolute ARPU aside, how many of the operators have been able to deliver on

“more for more” i.e. been able to increase ARPU while increasing data usage? And

how many are just following the “more for less” stream, giving users more data but

not being able to charge anything more?

This isn’t the prettiest Christmas tree you’ve seen, but it is relatively well balanced

given the influence of the pandemic: When data usage increased, 42% of

operators could grow ARPU (with branches growing to the right) – 58% could

not.

Figure 17. Mobile data usage development vs. ARPU15 development – 1H 2019 to 1H 2020

15 ARPU is calculated as the reported total mobile service (non-equipment) revenue incl. interconnect & roaming divided with the

average number of reported SIMs. It can differ from the definition of operator reported ARPU.

Elisa, FI

DNA, FI

3, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, UK

Play, PL

**Proximus, BE

Vodafone, IT

**TIM, IT

Vodafone, ES

Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1)Vodafone, RO

Vodafone, GR

Vodafone, PT

**Free, FR

**Bouygues, FR

Swisscom, CH

Telia, LT 1)

Bite, LT 1)

Tele2, LT 1)

MTS, RU

**Beeline, RU Türk Telekom, TR

Vodafone, TR

**Kyivstar, UA

**Beeline, KZ

Vodafone, EG

**Djezzy, DZ

**MTN Irancell, IR

**MTN, NG**MTN, ZA

**Entel, CL

**TIM, BR

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**Starhub, SG

LG U+, KR 1)


Chunghwa, TW 1)

FarEasTone, TW 1)

Ncell, NP

Vodafone Idea, IN

**VEON, PK

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Telkomsel, ID

XL, ID

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

3, ID

China Telecom, CN

China Unicom, CN

Globe, PH

**AIS, TH**dtac, TH

**Digi, MY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

GB

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM p

er

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. 1H19-1H20 [local currency]

1H 2020

1H 2019

Decreasing ARPU Increasing ARPU


Data usage grew

for almost 100% of

operators

ARPU grew for

42% of operators


Let’s highlight a few best practices of successful “more for more” operators:

The Finnish operators DNA has been able to grow ARPU thanks to more customers upgrading to

faster (and more expensive) speed tiers on their unlimited plans. DNA launched 5G for modems late

2019 and for smartphones this year.

Digi in Malaysia could increase ARPU in 1H 2020 in spite of a fall in subscriber base. The two

competitors Maxis and Celcom both lost subscribers and ARPU.

Free in France isn’t growing its total mobile base much any longer – but are gradually increasing the

share of customers who subscribe to their premium unlimited 4G16 plans, thereby lifting ARPU. Local

competitor Bouygues is also growing its data usage, but with a falling ARPU.

All three Lithuanian operators Tele2, Telia and Bite could once again turn usage growth into ARPU

growth.

All three Indian operators Jio, Airtel and Vodafone Idea could turn usage growth into ARPU growth

(albeit from a low level).

The three Indonesian operators XL, 3 and Indosat could turn usage growth into ARPU growth,

something the market leader Telkomsel couldn’t.

58% of the operators are on the branches facing left. They had data usage growth, but anyhow a decline

in ARPU. There are a few operators standing out quite negatively here:

Taiwan where the three incumbent mobile operators Taiwan Mobile, Chunghwa and, to some

extent, FarEasTone all continued to experience decreasing ARPU in spite of growing data usage.

Singtel and Starhub Singapore17 whose ARPU collapsed as a result of the entry of the fourth MNO,

TPG, who launched in March 2020 but since December 2018 offered free unlimited data during a

trial phase.

TIM Brazil where the pandemic on top of the recession handling caused large fluctuations in the

currency rates.

Proximus Belgium where the loss of incoming roaming due to the pandemic significantly worsened

the ARPU.

All the three Chinese operators – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom – have

experienced significant growth in data usage while ARPU has been falling 8% to 10%.

Finally MTN Irancell where data usage grew but ARPU collapsed when sanctions worsened the

country’s financial crisis.

The fact that just 42% of the operators managed to turn data usage growth into APRU growth is a

deterioration compared to our 2019 report – but given the pandemic, actually a bit better than expected.

It’s especially for Q2 2020 that the pandemic is visible in the reported figures of our operators. Revenues

shrunk when travel habits changed overnight and prepaid top-ups didn’t happen as usual. Subscriber bases

decreased when many prepaid subscriptions expired when not being topped up. The data usage was

16 Unlimited in conjunction with a Freebox (triple-play) subscription – otherwise limited to 50 or 100 GB 17 Most likely also M1, but the company is no longer reporting. You can read more about the Singapore situation in our latest country

report: https://tefficient.com/arpu-doesnt-follow-usage-upwards-if-we-cant-monetise-gigabytes-then-what/

https://tefficient.com/arpu-doesnt-follow-usage-upwards-if-we-cant-monetise-gigabytes-then-what/


surprisingly resilient though; the narrative that no mobile data would be used

when people stay at home (and on Wi-Fi) during lockdowns hasn’t proven right.

Figure 18 shows that for the operators where we have a breakdown of the 1H data

for both Q1 and Q2 for 2019 and 2020, there was generally as good growth in

data usage in Q2 as in Q1.

If comparing the averages for these 59 operators, the growth was even slightly

higher in Q2 than in Q1 – 54% vs. 51%. Most of the lockdowns started by the end of

Q1 and continued into Q2.

Figure 18. Mobile data usage development (each bar represents one operator) y-o-y, Q1 vs. Q2 2020

To some extent, mobile operators have supported this by, mainly during Q2, giving data away in an

attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of lockdowns. The effect of these giveaways should not be

exaggerated on a global scale, though. It is instead our view that most of the global usage growth is true,

underlying, growth.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Y-o

-y g

row

th in

mo

bil

e d

ata

usa

ge

Average +51% Average +54%

The narrative that

no mobile data

would be used

when people stay

at home hasn’t

proven right


Conclusion

In this analysis, we have presented fourteen updated ranking charts and three updated correlation

plots and we hope these are useful for you in understanding how mobile data usage, traffic

and service revenues develop globally. Generally speaking, data usage and traffic grew – while

service revenue was flat. If summing up all our studied operators, they carried 40% more

gigabytes in 1H 2020 compared to 1H 2019 – when revenue fell 0.5%.

If this would have been a normal half year, we would now criticise our industry for not being able

to turn usage growth into revenue growth. But given the pandemic and the associated lockdowns,

we instead say that our industry has demonstrated resilience. The narrative that no mobile

data would be used when people stay at home (and on Wi-Fi) didn’t prove right.

Our darling graph, the

Christmas tree, shows that

data usage grew for

basically all operators – but

that less than half of these

operators were able to turn

that into ARPU growth; 42%

delivered on a “more for

more” promise. This is a

lower share than in our two

previous operator reports.

We believe that operators’

generosity with mobile data

during the pandemic has

affected this somewhat –

but that the main reason is the negative effects lockdowns had on roaming revenue, on prepaid

top-up revenue and prepaid subscriber base.

Pandemic or not, effective monetisation of data usage is a key parameter for the business

sustainability of mobile operators. The demand is there – even during a pandemic – but the

monetisation toolbox might need to be filled with more or sharper tools. As specialists in mobile

data monetisation, we can help you to understand what works.

International telco competitiveness specialist providing operators and suppliers with analysis, benchmarks and go-to-

market preparation. Expertise in data monetisation, customer loyalty, Nonstop Retention®, FMC, mobile video, fibre, Wi-

Fi and 5G business models.

www.tefficient.com

Elisa, FI

DNA, FI

3, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, UK

Play, PL

**Proximus, BE

Vodafone, IT

**TIM, IT

Vodafone, ES

Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1)Vodafone, RO

Vodafone, GR

Vodafone, PT

**Free, FR

**Bouygues, FR

Swisscom, CH

Telia, LT 1)

Bite, LT 1)

Tele2, LT 1)

MTS, RU

**Beeline, RU Türk Telekom, TR

Vodafone, TR

**Kyivstar, UA

**Beeline, KZ

Vodafone, EG

**Djezzy, DZ

**MTN Irancell, IR

**MTN, NG**MTN, ZA

**Entel, CL

**TIM, BR

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**Starhub, SG

LG U+, KR 1)


Chunghwa, TW 1)

FarEasTone, TW 1)

Ncell, NP

Vodafone Idea, IN

**VEON, PK

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Telkomsel, ID

XL, ID

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

3, ID

China Telecom, CN

China Unicom, CN

Globe, PH

**AIS, TH**dtac, TH

**Digi, MY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

GB

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM p

er

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. 1H19-1H20 [local currency]

1H 2020

1H 2019

Decreasing ARPU Increasing ARPU

http://www.tefficient.com/

Documents

Y first half 2020 - Tefficient...tefficient AB 3 September 2020 2 27 operators above 10 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020 Figure 1 shows the average mobile data usage for 116 reporting