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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 1 Industry analysis #4 2017 Mobile data – Q3 2017 Spotting the operators capable of monetising the data usage growth This is tefficient’s 18 th public analysis on the development and drivers of mobile data. It follows on our just-published analysis “More for less” tips the balance that compares 35 countries. We have ranked 124 operators based on average data usage per SIM, total data traffic and revenue per gigabyte. The data usage per SIM grew for all operators. And it grows quickly. But what happens to ARPU? Have operators been able to monetise usage growth following the “more for more” mantra? In an upfront way, our new Christmas tree graph visualises the operators that are delivering on “more for more” – and those that are just following the “more for less” stream.

Industry analysis #4 2017 Q3 2017 Spotting the operators ...media.tefficient.com/2017/12/tefficient-industry-analysis-4-2017... · Have operators been able to monetise usage growth

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Page 1: Industry analysis #4 2017 Q3 2017 Spotting the operators ...media.tefficient.com/2017/12/tefficient-industry-analysis-4-2017... · Have operators been able to monetise usage growth

tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 1

Industry analysis #4 2017

Mobile data – Q3 2017

Spotting the operators capable of

monetising the data usage growth

This is tefficient’s 18th public analysis on the development and drivers of mobile data. It follows

on our just-published analysis “More for less” tips the balance that compares 35 countries.

We have ranked 124 operators based on average data usage per SIM, total data traffic and

revenue per gigabyte.

The data usage per SIM grew for all operators. And it grows quickly. But what happens to ARPU?

Have operators been able to monetise usage growth following the “more for more” mantra?

In an upfront way, our new Christmas tree graph visualises the operators that are delivering on

“more for more” – and those that are just following the “more for less” stream.

Page 2: Industry analysis #4 2017 Q3 2017 Spotting the operators ...media.tefficient.com/2017/12/tefficient-industry-analysis-4-2017... · Have operators been able to monetise usage growth

tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 2

The data usage in the world spans from 0.1 to 16.5 GB per SIM per month

Figure 1 shows the average mobile data usage for a large number of reporting or reported1 mobile operators

globally. Both the usage for the first half year of 2017 and – if available – the usage for the third quarter of

2017 are displayed.

Figure 1. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – all operators

It’s of course near to impossible to read Figure 1 and we will therefore break it down into three regions, but

let’s first use Figure 1 to identify the global data usage leaders.

1 By regulators

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

DN

A, FI

3, AT

Elis

a, FI

Taiw

an M

obile

, TW

FarE

asT

one, TW

*Telia

, FI

Jio, IN

3, D

K

**LG

Uplu

s, K

R

Chunghw

a, TW

**3, U

K

Tele

nor,

SE

3, SE

Telia

, D

K

Plu

s Cyfr

ow

y P

ols

at,

PL

TD

C, D

K

Tele

2, SE

**SK T

ele

com

, KR

Tele

nor,

DK

3 E

uro

pe, G

roup

Ice, N

O

Pla

y, PL

Telia

, N

O

**M

axi

s, M

Y

Zain

, G

roup

Celc

om

, M

Y

Bouygues,

FR

Sw

issc

om

, CH

**Fre

e, FR

**M

1, SG

**Türk

Tele

kom

, TR

Telia

, SE

Bite, LT

**M

egaFon, RU

Tele

2, LT

Telia

, LT

**Sin

gte

l, S

G

**Turk

cell,

TR

Vodafo

ne, TR

U.S

. Cellu

lar,

US

**W

ind 3

, IT

XL, ID

**Tele

2, N

L

Tele

nor,

NO

Vodafo

ne, PT

Movis

tar,

CL

Vodafo

ne, ES

**Beelin

e, RU

Chin

a U

nic

om

, CN

(handse

t)

Movis

tar,

ES

**M

TS, RU

(sm

art

phone)

Vodafo

ne, IT

**Tele

kom

, D

E

**N

OS, PT

Vodafo

ne, U

K

O2, U

K

Vodafo

ne, RO

Vodafo

ne Z

iggo, N

L

Vodafo

ne, D

E

TIM

, IT

Movis

tar,

PE

Chin

a M

obile

, CN

(handse

t)

Vodafo

ne, G

roup

**KPN

, N

L

Chin

a T

ele

com

, CN

(handse

t)

Indosa

t, I

D

**O

range, BE+

LU

**Pro

xim

us,

BE +

Tango, LU

Telk

om

sel, I

D

Movis

tar,

AR

Dia

log, LK

O2, D

E

Viv

o, BR

MEO

, PT

T-M

obile

, CZ

Movis

tar,

CO

**M

TN

Ira

nce

ll, I

R

**TIM

, BR

Movis

tar,

MX

Airte

l, I

N

Vodafo

ne, G

R

Vodafo

ne, EG

Idea, IN

**Kyiv

star,

UA

Vodafo

ne, IN

Robi, B

D

Vodaco

m, G

roup

**VEO

N, PK

**D

jezz

y, D

Z

**M

TN

, ZA

**Beelin

e, U

Z

**Bangla

link, BD

Nce

ll, N

P

**M

TN

, N

G

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM p

er

mo

nth

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 3

Gold DNA Finland with 14.7 GB per SIM and month in 1H 2017 and 16.5 GB in Q3 2017

DNA is back as the usage leader of the world. Most of DNA’s subscriptions – regular ones as well as

data-only subscriptions – have unlimited data volume where the price depends on the chosen

speed tier. 52% of DNA’s subscribers had in September chosen speeds that require 4G: Up to 50,

100 or 300 Mbit/s. DNA isn’t reporting how many subscriptions that had unlimited data volume, but the June

figure for Finland as a whole was 53% of non-M2M SIMs.

Silver 3 Austria with 14.3 GB per SIM and month in 1H 2017

Three (or Drei) Austria was the gold medallist in our last (FY 2016) analysis, but was overtaken by

DNA in the first half of 2017. The usage is still very high, but 3’s competitors T-Mobile and A1 have

in 2017 aggressively targeted a segment that previously was more or less owned by 3: Data-only.

In Austria these subscriptions are used to substitute (slow) fixed broadband. They come with unlimited data

volume but are charged based on speed tiers. In 2016, 3 carried 64% of the Austrian mobile data traffic, but

in 1H 2017, that share had declined to ‘just’ 52%. It suggests that competition has had some success in

this segment in 2017. In our country analysis, we show just how important data-only is for the overall data

usage of a country – and how uniquely positioned Austria is.

Bronze Elisa Finland with 12.2 GB per SIM and month in 1H 2017 and 13.6 GB in Q3 2017

Elisa is synonymous with unlimited data and never stops reminding Finns about it in its

marketing – even though DNA too has had it for a long time and Telia today offers it at lower

price points than Elisa. Like with DNA, Elisa’s price depends on the chosen speed tier. 62% of

Elisa’s voice-also subscriptions had unlimited data volume in September 2017.

The two Taiwanese operators Taiwan Mobile and FarEasTone are close to the podium with 11.8 GB and

11.6 GB per month in 1H 2017.

The remaining Finnish operator, Telia, follows, but we have a newcomer in the seventh position: Jio. The

Indian challenger that only launched in the second half of 2016 became world famous for its free 4G-only

proposition. All of its 139 million subscribers are now charged for data, but they are still using very much:

The average consumption per SIM in the third quarter of 2017 (Jio’s first reported quarter) was a whopping

9.6 GB per month – a level that no other maturing market operator is close to.

An operator that possibly could challenge the world top is Zain. For 2016, it reported an “average daily data

volume”. We have asked Zain’s investor relations team about the definition, but not received a reply. If it

should be understood as a true 365 day average, two of Zain’s affiliates – Kuwait and Bahrain – should be in

the absolute top with 11.8 GB and 10.0 GB respectively. These numbers are for the full year of 2016, but

Zain does not report them for affiliates (only for the group as a whole) during a calendar year.

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 4

Europe: Data usage spans from 0.4 to 16.5 GB per SIM per month

Now to the first of three breakdowns: Europe. The top three operators are the same as in the global

comparison: 3 Austria, DNA Finland and Elisa Finland.

Figure 2. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – European operators

The remaining European operators have customers with significantly lower usage than the top three, but

there are a number of operators that had an average usage above 4 GB per month in the first half of 2017.

These operators are from Finland, Denmark, Sweden, the UK and Poland.

But Europe has a long tail: Operators from five countries – Greece, Czechia, Portugal, Germany,

Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy – hold the ten lowest usage positions.

If comparing the 1H 2017 to the Q3 2017 usage bars, we can see that the usage is growing everywhere

(where reported). Mid-ranked Tele2 Netherlands2 – that introduced an unlimited plan for 25 EUR per month

in May 2017 – has had the fastest usage growth in Q3 2017.

2 15 December, Deutsche Telekom and Tele2 announced that they will seek regulatory approval for a merger between T-Mobile and

Tele2 in the Netherlands. Deutsche Telekom will hold 75% of the merged entity and Tele2 25%.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

DN

A, FI

3, AT

Elis

a, FI

*Telia

, FI

3, D

K

**3, U

K

Tele

nor,

SE

3, SE

Telia

, D

K

Plu

s Cyfr

ow

y P

ols

at,

PL

TD

C, D

K

Tele

2, SE

Tele

nor,

DK

Ice, N

O

Pla

y, PL

Telia

, N

O

Bouygues,

FR

Sw

issc

om

, CH

**Fre

e, FR

Telia

, SE

Bite, LT

Tele

2, LT

Telia

, LT

**W

ind 3

, IT

**Tele

2, N

L

Tele

nor,

NO

Vodafo

ne, PT

Vodafo

ne, ES

Movis

tar,

ES

Vodafo

ne, IT

**Tele

kom

, D

E

**N

OS, PT

Vodafo

ne, U

K

O2, U

K

Vodafo

ne, RO

Vodafo

ne Z

iggo, N

L

Vodafo

ne, D

E

TIM

, IT

**KPN

, N

L

**O

range, BE+

LU

**Pro

xim

us,

BE +

Tango, LU

O2, D

E

MEO

, PT

T-M

obile

, CZ

Vodafo

ne, G

R

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM p

er

mo

nth

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 5

Asia and China: Data usage spans from 0.1 to 11.8 GB per SIM per month

Apart from Jio’s entry, Taiwanese and Korean operators lead the Asia/China ranking, see Figure 3. We

already touched on Taiwan Mobile and FarEasTone in the global comparison. Their incumbent competitor,

Chunghwa, ranks as number five with 7.0 GB, just beaten for fourth place by the Korea’s LG Uplus.

Figure 3. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – Asian and Chinese operators

SK Telecom is sixth with 4.1 GB in 1H 2017, but if you look at the Q3 2017 figures you see that Malaysia’s

Celcom has passed SK Telecom. Celcom’s competitor Maxis is very close to SK Telecom, but still behind.

The three Chinese operators China Unicom, China Mobile and China Telecom are mid-ranked but the

data usage growth is fast – especially for Unicom that is now much ahead of the two others. All three

exclude data-only from their reported data traffic.

Another country with fast data usage growth is Indonesia. Axiata’s XL is having twice the usage (2.2 GB

per month in Q3) of the larger competitors Indosat and Telkomsel but the latter two are speeding up.

The remaining reporting Indian operators – Airtel, Idea and Vodafone – are experiencing dramatic growth

in the data usage. Their Q3 2017 usage levels (0.9 GB, 0.8 GB, 0.6 GB per month respectively) are though

far from that of Jio (9.6 GB).

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Taiw

an M

obile

, TW

FarE

asT

one, TW

Jio, IN

**LG

Uplu

s, K

R

Chunghw

a, TW

**SK T

ele

com

, KR

**M

axis

, M

Y

Celc

om

, M

Y

**M

1, SG

**Sin

gte

l, S

G

XL, ID

Chin

a U

nic

om

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a M

obile

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a T

ele

com

, CN

(handse

t)

Indosa

t, I

D

Telk

om

sel, I

D

Dia

log, LK

Airte

l, I

N

Idea, IN

Vodafo

ne, IN

Robi, B

D

**VEO

N, PK

**Bangla

link, BD

Nce

ll, N

P

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM p

er

mo

nth

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 6

RoW: Data usage spans from 0.1 to 4.3 GB per SIM per month

The rest of world ranking combines North American, Latin American and Russian operators with operators

from Middle East, Africa and reporting international groups, see Figure 4.

It is a pity that none of the major US or Canadian operators report their data traffic or usage. The only

sample in Figure 4 is U.S. Cellular. It’s likely that four larger US carriers Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and Sprint

would have higher data usage – but it is not reported.

Figure 4. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – RoW operators

If we disregard 3 Europe group whose affiliates are represented in the European comparison (Figure 2), it’s

interesting to see how high the average usage of Zain Group is. If looking at Zain’s reported 2016 figures,

the average is lifted by Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia whereas markets like Iraq and Sudan lower it.

Russian and Turkish operators have high average usage. If we look at the Q3 2017 figures, we can also see

that it is growing fast. The Latin American operators have – with the exception of Chile – fairly low average

usage. TIM Brazil has had good growth in Q3 2017.

African operators are – together with operators from Uzbekistan and Ukraine – having the lowest monthly

data usage per SIM in our sample.

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

3 E

uro

pe, G

roup

Zain

, G

roup

**Türk

Tele

kom

, TR

**M

egaFon, RU

**Turk

cell,

TR

Vodafo

ne, TR

Movis

tar,

CL

**Beelin

e, RU

**M

TS, RU

(sm

art

phone)

Movis

tar,

PE

Vodafo

ne, G

roup

Movis

tar,

AR

Viv

o, BR

Movis

tar,

CO

**M

TN

Ira

nce

ll, I

R

**TIM

, BR

Movis

tar,

MX

Vodafo

ne, EG

**Kyiv

star,

UA

Vodaco

m, G

roup

**D

jezz

y, D

Z

**M

TN

, ZA

**Beelin

e, U

Z

**M

TN

, N

G

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM p

er

mo

nth

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 7

Jio emerges as the largest operator in the world – traffic-wise

We have seen that the data usage varies much between customers of different operators in different

countries. If we instead compare total data traffic, the spread will be even wider, see Figure 5.

Figure 5. Total data traffic – all operators

Gold Jio with 3780 PB in Q3 2017

Since Jio reported for the first time in Q3 2017, there is a bit of uncertainty surrounding this gold

medal – but the Indian challenger carried more mobile data traffic in Q3 than China Mobile

carried mobile data handset traffic. How the comparison would have looked in 1H 2017, we don’t

know. With ‘only’ 139 million subscriptions but – as shown in the previous section – very high

usage, the 4G-only operator Jio emerges as the new world leader in total mobile data traffic.

Silver China Mobile with 4831 PB in 1H 2017 and 3320 PB in Q3 2017

With 878 million mobile subscriptions, China Mobile remains the operator with the

largest customer base in the world. But Jio overtook it as the biggest carrier of

mobile data traffic sometime in 2017. China Mobile is however just including

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Jio, IN

Chin

a M

obile

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a U

nic

om

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a T

ele

com

, CN

(handse

t)

**M

egaFon, RU

Telk

om

sel, I

D

**SK T

ele

com

, KR

Airte

l, I

N

**M

TS, RU

(sm

art

phone)

**Beelin

e, RU

XL, ID

**LG

Uplu

s, K

R

Taiw

an M

obile

, TW

FarE

asT

one, TW

Indosa

t, I

D

Chunghw

a, TW

**Turk

cell,

TR

**3, U

K

Idea, IN

Vodafo

ne, IN

**W

ind 3

, IT

Plu

s Cyfr

ow

y P

ols

at,

PL

**Tele

kom

, D

E

Elis

a, FI

Viv

o, BR

**Türk

Tele

kom

, TR

Pla

y, PL

Vodafo

ne, TR

Bouygues,

FR

3, AT

DN

A, FI

**Fre

e, FR

**M

axi

s, M

Y

Celc

om

, M

Y

Vodafo

ne, D

E

*Telia

, FI

Vodafo

ne, IT

O2, D

E

TIM

, IT

O2, U

K

**TIM

, BR

Movis

tar,

ES

**M

TN

Ira

nce

ll, I

R

Vodafo

ne, ES

Sw

issc

om

, CH

Vodafo

ne, U

K

Tele

2, SE

Tele

nor,

SE

Movis

tar,

AR

Movis

tar,

CL

Vodafo

ne, EG

Telia

, SE

Movis

tar,

PE

TD

C, D

K

**VEO

N, PK

3, SE

Movis

tar,

MX

Robi, B

D

U.S

. Cellu

lar,

US

Vodafo

ne, RO

3, D

K

Dia

log, LK

**Sin

gte

l, S

G

Vodafo

ne, PT

**Kyiv

star,

UA

Telia

, D

K

Telia

, N

O

Movis

tar,

CO

Tele

nor,

DK

Tele

nor,

NO

**KPN

, N

L

**M

TN

, ZA

**M

1, SG

**M

TN

, N

G

Vodafo

ne Z

iggo, N

L

**N

OS, PT

**Bangla

link, BD

**Pro

xim

us,

BE +

Tango, LU

Tele

2, LT

MEO

, PT

**D

jezz

y, D

Z

T-M

obile

, CZ

**O

range, BE+

LU

Telia

, LT

Bite, LT

Vodafo

ne, G

R

Nce

ll, N

P

**Tele

2, N

L

**Beelin

e, U

Z

Ice, N

O

Mo

bil

e d

ata

tra

ffic

[P

B]

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 8

handset data in its reported mobile data traffic but it’s unclear if it would make a difference. Noticeably,

China Mobile uses the home-grown Chinese TD-LTE standard for 4G.

Bronze China Unicom with 2533 PB in 1H 2017 and 2169 PB in Q3 2017

Like its larger competitor China Mobile, China Unicom is also just reporting handset data.

When it comes to 4G, China Unicom (as well as fourth-ranked China Telecom) uses the

‘regular’ FDD-LTE standard.

Other operators that are highly ranked are MegaFon from Russia, Telkomsel from Indonesia, SK

Telecom from Korea and Airtel from India. Airtel’s traffic in Q3 was larger than for the first half year of

2017 and it’s thus likely that Airtel will have passed MegaFon, Telekomsel and SK Telecom next time we

update this analysis. If the merger between Vodafone India and Idea is approved, the combined company

will become even larger.

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 9

Europe: Europe’s largest operators are not the usual suspects

First to the European breakdown. Since the highest ranked European operator is just number 18 in our

global rank, we could conclude that the European countries are less populated than the global leaders. But

it’s not the operators that you would suspect (with the largest SIM base) that are in the top of Figure 6.

Based on a reported usage with an unspecified definition3, the largest European carrier of mobile data is 3

UK. Three is known for its high data usage, having offered all-you-can-eat plans for long, but for an

operator that just holds 12% of the UK subscriptions, it’s quite an achievement. The newly formed Wind 3

in Italy is just behind. The third largest operator in Europe is Poland’s Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat4. It uses data-

only as fixed-line substitution – but is now rumoured to be interested in Netia, a fixed operator. Sixth-ranked

Play is also Polish and has a similar approach as Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat.

Figure 6. Total data traffic – European operators

Finland has 5.5 million inhabitants, but Elisa is still ranked as number 5 in Europe. Elisa’s competitors DNA

and Telia are number 9 and 12. They all beat Europe’s largest operator in SIMs – O2 Germany (#14).

3 The media team of 3 UK was asked and answered that the definition is not disclosed. We have assumed it is per active subscription. 4 A bit of reporting uncertainity here as well: The traffic reported for 1H was higher than the traffic reported for the nine months to

September. We have prorated the latter figure, thinking that the 1H figure was wrong.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

**3, U

K

**W

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, IT

Plu

s Cyfr

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, FI

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nor,

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, N

L

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ne Z

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L

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OS, PT

**Pro

xim

us,

BE +

Tango, LU

Tele

2, LT

MEO

, PT

T-M

obile

, CZ

**O

range, BE+

LU

Telia

, LT

Bite, LT

Vodafo

ne, G

R

**Tele

2, N

L

Ice, N

O

Mo

bil

e d

ata

tra

ffic

[P

B]

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 10

Asia and China: Where the traffic figures get really large

We find the four global traffic leaders in the top of the Asian/Chinese comparison: Jio, China Mobile,

China Unicom and China Telecom.

Figure 7. Total data traffic – Asian and Chinese operators

Telkomsel from Indonesia – a quickly growing operator with 190 million subscribers – is number 5 followed

by the Korean market leader, SK Telecom. Airtel from India is, as pointed out, experiencing fast growth in

data traffic and has already passed SK Telecom and Telkomsel in Q3. The other Indian operators in Figure 7,

Idea and Vodafone, have also carried more traffic in Q3 than in the first half of 2017.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Jio, IN

Chin

a M

obile

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a U

nic

om

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a T

ele

com

, CN

(handse

t)

Telk

om

sel, I

D

**SK T

ele

com

, KR

Airte

l, I

N

XL, ID

**LG

Uplu

s, K

R

Taiw

an M

obile

, TW

FarE

asT

one, TW

Indosa

t, I

D

Chunghw

a, TW

Idea, IN

Vodafo

ne, IN

**M

axis

, M

Y

Celc

om

, M

Y

**VEO

N, PK

Robi, B

D

Dia

log, LK

**Sin

gte

l, S

G

**M

1, SG

**Bangla

link, BD

Nce

ll, N

P

Mo

bil

e d

ata

tra

ffic

[P

B]

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 11

RoW: MegaFon larger than 3 Europe Group and Zain Group

Figure 8 collects operators from the rest of the world, but also a few reporting international groups.

Figure 8. Total data traffic – Rest of world operators

The Russian operator MegaFon (#2) is an international giant in mobile data, carrying more traffic than the

whole of 3 Europe Group or the whole group of Zain. Even though MegaFon’s local competitors MTS and

Beeline (VEON) are large too, MegaFon is larger. This can be attributed to MegaFon’s acquisition of the 4G

data-only specialist Yota back in 2013.

Turkish and Brazilian operators follow. A newcomer in our analysis is MTN Irancell, an operator carrying

more mobile data than the whole of Vodacom group.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Vodafo

ne, G

roup

**M

egaFon, RU

3 E

uro

pe, G

roup

Zain

, G

roup

**M

TS, RU

(sm

art

phone)

**Beelin

e, RU

**Turk

cell,

TR

Viv

o, BR

**Türk

Tele

kom

, TR

Vodafo

ne, TR

**TIM

, BR

**M

TN

Ira

nce

ll, I

R

Vodaco

m, G

roup

Movis

tar,

AR

Movis

tar,

CL

Vodafo

ne, EG

Movis

tar,

PE

Movis

tar,

MX

U.S

. Cellu

lar,

US

**Kyiv

star,

UA

Movis

tar,

CO

**M

TN

, ZA

**M

TN

, N

G

**D

jezz

y, D

Z

**Beelin

e, U

Z

Mo

bil

e d

ata

tra

ffic

[P

B]

1H 2017 Q3 2017

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 12

World: Total revenue per GB can be anything between 0.3 and 37.4 EUR

In our country analysis, we have focused on mature markets. The way we calculate revenue per gigabyte –

total mobile service revenue per carried gigabyte – will resonate with mature markets where operators

generally aren’t attempting to monetise voice and SMS based on usage. Instead they have made voice and

messaging allowances unlimited and included them in a flat fee.

In maturing markets, usage-based monetisation is still used to a much higher degree. This is true also for

voice and messaging. With our calculation method, one might conclude that the operators ending up with

the highest effective revenue per gigabyte would thus be operators from maturing markets. Figure 9 is

though showing that this is the case only for a few sub-Saharan operators.

Figure 9. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – all operators5

5 That also report mobile service revenue

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jio, IN

(Q

3 1

7)

DN

A, FI

XL, ID

3, AT

Elis

a, FI

Taiw

an M

obile

, TW

Zain

, G

roup

FarE

asT

one, TW

**M

egaFon, RU

*Telia

, FI

Indosa

t, I

D

Pla

y, PL

Chunghw

a, TW

3, D

K

**3, U

K

Tele

2, LT

**Türk

Tele

kom

, TR

Celc

om

, M

Y

**Beelin

e, RU

Telia

, LT

3 E

uro

pe, G

roup

Telia

, D

K

**M

TS, RU

(sm

art

phone)

**M

axis

, M

Y

TD

C, D

K

Tele

nor,

SE

3, SE

Vodafo

ne, TR

Telk

om

sel, I

D

Chin

a U

nic

om

, CN

(handse

t)

Tele

nor,

DK

**LG

Uplu

s, K

R

**Fre

e, FR

Tele

2, SE

Vodafo

ne, EG

Dia

log, LK

**Kyiv

star,

UA

Airte

l, I

N

**W

ind 3

, IT

Movis

tar,

CL

Bouyg

ues,

FR

Idea, IN

Vodafo

ne, RO

Robi, B

D

**SK T

ele

com

, KR

Ice, N

O

**M

1, SG

Movis

tar,

PE

Vodafo

ne, IN

**M

TN

Ira

nce

ll, I

R

Movis

tar,

MX

Telia

, SE

Movis

tar,

CO

**VEO

N, PK

Telia

, N

O

**Bangla

link, BD

Sw

issc

om

, CH

(Q

3 1

7)

Chin

a T

ele

com

, CN

(handse

t)

Vodafo

ne, PT

**Tele

2, N

L

Chin

a M

obile

, CN

(handse

t)

**Tele

kom

, D

E

Vodafo

ne, ES

Movis

tar,

AR

Vodafo

ne, G

roup

Vodafo

ne, IT

**TIM

, BR

TIM

, IT

Viv

o, BR

**Sin

gte

l, S

G

O2, D

E

MEO

, PT

O2, U

K

Tele

nor,

NO

Vodafo

ne, D

E

T-M

obile

, CZ

**D

jezz

y, D

Z

Vodaco

m, G

roup

Vodafo

ne Z

iggo, N

L

Vodafo

ne, U

K

Nce

ll, N

P

U.S

. Cellu

lar,

US

**Pro

xim

us,

BE +

Tango, LU

**O

range, BE+

LU

**KPN

, N

L

**Beelin

e, U

Z

Vodafo

ne, G

R

**M

TN

, ZA

**M

TN

, N

G

To

tal m

ob

ile

se

rvic

e r

eve

nu

e p

er

Gb

yte

1H

17

[E

UR

]

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators

**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 13

We will – for readability reasons – soon break down Figure 9 in Europe, Asia/China and RoW, but let’s first

look into a disclaimer with regards to operators marked with * or **.

Having explained this, let’s now in Figure 9 identify the operators that get the lowest total mobile service

revenue per gigabyte in the world in the first half of 2017:

1. Jio, India – 0.3 EUR (Q3 2017)

2. DNA, Finland – 0.9 EUR

3. XL, Indonesia – 1.2 EUR

4. 3, Austria – 1.3 EUR

5. Elisa, Finland – 1.3 EUR

6. Taiwan Mobile, Taiwan – 1.4 EUR

7. Zain, Group – 1.6 EUR

8. FarEasTone, Taiwan – 1.7 EUR

9. MegaFon, Russia** – 1.8 EUR

10. Telia, Finland* – 1.9 EUR

11. Indosat, Indonesia – 1.9 EUR

12. Play, Poland** – 2.1 EUR

When reporting mobile data traffic, take inspiration from Vodafone and Telefónica

All graphs in this analysis carry this legend:

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators

**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

There are a number of operators globally that, in their regular easy-to-use Excel sheets, report their total mobile data traffic

quarter by quarter. Of the larger operators groups, Vodafone and Telefónica are two good examples. We encourage all

operators to follow their example.

Some operators are instead reporting – or occasionally indicating – data usage. These are the operators marked with **. The

problem here is that most operators aren’t defining what a user is – sometimes it is all users, sometimes “active data users”

(whatever that is), sometimes smartphone users, sometimes branded smartphone users, sometimes postpaid users. Typically

these usage numbers are stated to impress, i.e. they are representative only for a smaller, high-usage, segment of the subscriber

base. An exception to that operators reporting usage isn’t reporting the number of associated users is VEON Group that reports

the usage per mobile data customer and the number of such mobile data customers (a subset of the total customer base).

The majority of operators are still not reporting anything, though. Orange Group, Telia Company and Telenor Group are

examples of it. And, of course, all large North American carriers. In some cases, country regulators are helpful in reporting a

breakdown per operator. But in most cases, the country regulator is just reporting a total. In such occasions – and if also all other

operators report data traffic or at least usage – we have calculated the country residual and assumed that this traffic equals that

of the non-reporting operator. These are the operators marked with *.

It’s not necessarily so that a regulator and the reporting operators use exactly the same definition when reporting data traffic.

Traffic via MVNOs can e.g. disturb the comparability. Where the error risks to be the largest, though, is in countries where the

country residual has been assigned to a *-marked operator while, at the same time, one or several of the other operators are **-

marked operators, i.e. have not explicitly reported the total data traffic but some type of usage.

So if any operator (*-marked or **-marked) is unhappy with its calculated data traffic, the solution is simple: Start to report your

total mobile data traffic.

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 14

All these operators are either active in high data usage markets (Finland, Taiwan) or have usage leadership

positions. In the mature market focused country analysis you can identify Finland, Taiwan, Austria and

Poland as some of the country markets (of the covered) with the highest revenue per gigabyte so this list

seems plausible.

The operators that get the highest total mobile service revenue per gigabyte in the world are:

1. MTN, Nigeria** – 37.4 EUR

2. MTN, South Africa** - 33.7 EUR

3. Vodafone, Greece – 29.1 EUR

4. Beeline, Uzbekistan** – 27.9 EUR

5. KPN, Netherlands** – 27.3 EUR

6. Orange, Belgium & Luxembourg** – 26.9 EUR

7. Proximus, Belgium & Tango, Luxembourg** – 23.7 EUR

8. U.S. Cellular, US – 23.3 EUR

9. Ncell, Nepal – 21.0 EUR

10. Vodafone, UK – 19.6 EUR

11. Vodafone Ziggo, the Netherlands – 19.5 EUR

12. Vodacom, Group – 19.3 EUR

In the mature market focused country analysis you can identify Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands as

some of the country markets (of the covered) with the highest revenue per gigabyte so this list seems

plausible too.

We conclude that there is a 150-fold difference between the operator with the highest total service

revenue per gigabyte (MTN Nigeria) and the operator with the lowest (Jio India).

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 15

Europe: Greece, the Netherlands and Belgium have the highest revenue per GB

Figure 10 shows the European breakdown. Since European operators played both in the bottom and in top

of the global chart, the spread is almost as large as in the global view. To ease comparability, the scale is

kept intact throughout this section.

Figure 10. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – European operators

The position of 3 is important to point out: In almost each European market where it operates – Austria,

Denmark, the UK, the UK and Italy6 – 3 has revenues per gigabyte which are lower than all of its local

competition. It just in Sweden that 3 isn’t having the lowest revenue, but the difference to Telenor is

marginal. It’s thus fair to say that 3 has done a lot to improve the competitiveness of many European

markets when it comes to mobile data. At the same time, 3 Group has been allowed by the European

Commission to consolidate several European markets; Austria, Ireland and Italy have all gone from four to

three7 MNOs based on initiatives taken by 3’s owner CK Hutchison. The exception is the UK where the

European Commission turned down 3’s request to merge with O2.

6 No data exists for 3 Ireland 7 Italy will come back to four MNOs as a result of the remedies agreed with the EU: Iliad (owner of French operator Free) will use

assets sold by 3 and Wind as basis for a new fourth MNO

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

DN

A, FI

3, AT

Elis

a, FI

*Telia

, FI

Pla

y, PL

3, D

K

**3, U

K

Tele

2, LT

Telia

, LT

Telia

, D

K

TD

C, D

K

Tele

nor,

SE

3, SE

Tele

nor,

DK

**Fre

e, FR

Tele

2, SE

**W

ind 3

, IT

Bouygues,

FR

Vodafo

ne, RO

Ice, N

O

Telia

, SE

Telia

, N

O

Sw

issc

om

, CH

(Q

3 1

7)

Vodafo

ne, PT

**Tele

2, N

L

**Tele

kom

, D

E

Vodafo

ne, ES

Vodafo

ne, IT

TIM

, IT

O2, D

E

MEO

, PT

O2, U

K

Tele

nor,

NO

Vodafo

ne, D

E

T-M

obile

, CZ

Vodafo

ne Z

iggo, N

L

Vodafo

ne, U

K

**Pro

xim

us,

BE +

Tango, LU

**O

range, BE+

LU

**KPN

, N

L

Vodafo

ne, G

R

To

tal m

ob

ile

se

rvic

e r

eve

nu

e p

er

Gb

yte

1H

17

[E

UR

]

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 16

Asia and China: Revenue per GB coming down fast

Figure 11 shows the Asian and Chinese operators. Jio, Indonesian and Taiwanese operators have the lowest

revenue per gigabyte whereas no operator (except Nepal’s Ncell) is having very high revenue. The quickly

growing data usage in China and India has moved the Chinese and Indian operators to the left compared to

our 2016 analysis.

Figure 11. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – Asian and Chinese operators

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jio, IN

(Q

3 1

7)

XL, ID

Taiw

an M

obile

, TW

FarE

asT

one, TW

Indosa

t, I

D

Chunghw

a, TW

Celc

om

, M

Y

**M

axis

, M

Y

Telk

om

sel, I

D

Chin

a U

nic

om

, CN

(handse

t)

**LG

Uplu

s, K

R

Dia

log, LK

Airte

l, I

N

Idea, IN

Robi, B

D

**SK T

ele

com

, KR

**M

1, SG

Vodafo

ne, IN

**VEO

N, PK

**Bangla

link, BD

Chin

a T

ele

com

, CN

(handse

t)

Chin

a M

obile

, CN

(handse

t)

**Sin

gte

l, S

G

Nce

ll, N

P

To

tal m

ob

ile

se

rvic

e r

eve

nu

e p

er

Gb

yte

1H

17

[E

UR

]

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 17

RoW: Revenue per GB spans between 1.6 and 37.4 EUR

Finally Figure 12 which shows the operators in the rest of the world alongside a few groups that separate

out mobile service revenue in their reporting.

Figure 12. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – rest of world operators

Together with Zain Group and 3 Europe Group, operators from Russia and Turkey have the lowest revenue

per gigabyte whereas Latin American operators dominate the middle. Sub-Saharan operators including

Vodacom Group populate the right hand of the graph.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Zain

, G

roup

**M

egaFon, RU

**Türk

Tele

kom

, TR

**Beelin

e, RU

3 E

uro

pe, G

roup

**M

TS, RU

(sm

art

phone)

Vodafo

ne, TR

Vodafo

ne, EG

**Kyiv

star,

UA

Movis

tar,

CL

Movis

tar,

PE

**M

TN

Ira

nce

ll, I

R

Movis

tar,

MX

Movis

tar,

CO

Movis

tar,

AR

Vodafo

ne, G

roup

**TIM

, BR

Viv

o, BR

**D

jezz

y, D

Z

Vodaco

m, G

roup

**Beelin

e, U

Z

**M

TN

, ZA

**M

TN

, N

G

To

tal m

ob

ile

se

rvic

e r

eve

nu

e p

er

Gb

yte

1H

17

[E

UR

]

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 18

Let’s put it all together

Let us now combine the revenue per gigabyte with the usage. Those of you that have read our data usage

and revenue analyses before are familiar with the revenue vs. usage chart. But where it is normally

populated with countries, it is here populated with operators, see Figure 13.

Figure 13. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per Gbyte 1H 2017

With all those markers, we have only been able to highlight the operators that have more extreme positions.

The amber line is not a regression line, but illustrates where 20 EUR of ARPU is earned. Operators above the

line earn more – and operators below the line less than 20 EUR.

Most mature markets operators operate with an APRU of around 20 EUR. Many operators in maturing

markets clutter in the southwest or south parts of the chart.

One could criticise the chart for comparing the number of gigabytes with something that relates to it – the

revenue per gigabyte. Our next chart, Figure 14, is therefore comparing the number of gigabytes with the

revenue per subscription, i.e. the ARPU. And that is perhaps even more interesting.

Telia, SE

Tele2, SE

Telenor, SE3, SE

3, DK

TDC, DK

Telia, DK

Elisa, FI

*Telia, FI

DNA, FI3, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, UK

**3, UK

Play, PL

Vodafone, ITTIM, IT

**Wind 3, IT

**KPN, NLVodafone Ziggo, NL

**Tele2, NL

Vodafone, GR

**Free, FR

Telenor, NO

Telia, NOIce, NO Swisscom, CH (Q3)

Tele2, LT**MegaFon, RU

**Beeline, RU

**MTN, NG**MTN, ZA**TIM, BR

**Singtel, SG

**M1, SG

**SK Telecom, KR

**LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

U.S. Cellular, US

Zain, Group

Ncell, NP**VEON, PK

Jio, IN (Q3)

Telkomsel, ID

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

China Unicom, CN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per Gbyte [EUR]

20 EUR ARPU line

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such, but calculated based on reported usage

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 19

Figure 14. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per SIM 1H 2017

Of the 89 operators in this sample8, there is one – U.S. Cellular – that enjoys much higher total mobile

service revenue per SIM than all other operators. It is interesting that this happens even though the mobile

data usage isn’t particularly high. If comparing to the corresponding graph in the country analysis, we note

that USA and Canada play in this corner. If other US operators – or the Canadian operators – would have

reported their data usage, they would likely have been close to the position of U.S. Cellular. Its position is

thus rather more a reflection of a local market reality (high ARPU, low to medium data usage) than being

unique to U.S. Cellular.

Other markets with high ARPU are Norway, Switzerland, Singapore and Korea.

Korean users consume fairly much data for that high ARPU though.

The most generous operators are found in the upper left corner: Jio India (obviously),

DNA/Elisa Finland, Taiwan Mobile/FarEasTone, 3 Austria, Play Poland, Zain

Group, MegaFon Russia and XL Indonesia.

But there’s hope in Figure 14: The grey regression line suggests that operators with

higher data usage have higher ARPU.

8 All that report both mobile data traffic/usage and mobile service revenue

Telia, SE

Tele2, SE

Telenor, SE3, SE

3, DK

Telenor, DK

TDC, DK

Telia, DK

Elisa, FI

*Telia, FI

DNA, FI

O2, DE

3, AT

Vodafone, UK

**3, UK

Play, PL

**Proximus, BE + Tango, LU

Vodafone, ITTIM, IT

**Wind 3, ITVodafone, ES

**KPN, NL

**Tele2, NL

Vodafone, RO

Vodafone, GR

**Free, FR Bouygues, FR

Telenor, NO

Telia, NOIce, NOSwisscom, CH (Q3)

Tele2, LT**MegaFon, RU

**Beeline, RU

**Türk Telekom, TR

**MTN, ZA

Movistar, CL

**Maxis, MY

**Singtel, SG

**M1, SG

**SK Telecom, KR

**LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

U.S. Cellular, US

Zain, Group

Jio, IN (Q3)

XL, ID

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

R² = 0,3966

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month [EUR]

20 EUR ARPU line*) Data traffic calculated as country total

minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported as such,

but calculated based on reported usage

Operators with

higher data usage

tend to have higher

ARPU

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tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 21 December 2017 rev B 20

To moderate this, one has to realise that the adherence to this line (shown by a R2 value below 1) isn’t

perfect. And we should also remember that the line visualises an international – not a national – trend: It is

quite difficult to find national examples showing that operators with higher data usage enjoy higher ARPU. If

anything, it’s rather the opposite. It’s typically the challenger operator that has the customers with the

highest data usage and challenger operators tend to have lower ARPU than incumbents.

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Dressing the Christmas tree

How many of the operators have been able to deliver on “more for more” i.e. been able to increase ARPU

while increasing data usage? And how many are just following the “more for less” stream, giving users more

data but not being able to charge anything more?

In our mature market focused country analysis, we were disappointed with the asymmetric look of the

Christmas tree. Here it looks more balanced:

Figure 15. Mobile data usage development vs. ARPU9 development – FY 2016 to 1H 2017 or Q3 201710

For every single operator in Figure 15, data usage has grown. But it’s just 53% of the operators that

have managed to use that to grow ARPU. These operators are having branches growing to the right in

the Christmas tree.

There are quite a few good performances here which we soon will highlight. But we need to comment on

the positions of Movistar Argentina and Beeline Uzbekistan where ARPU grew around 40% in local currency.

The explanation can be due to prices rising following a significant depreciation of the local currency (-85% in

9 ARPU is calculated as the reported total mobile service (non-equipment) revenue incl. interconnect & roaming divided with the

average number of reported SIMs. It can differ from the definition of operator reported ARPU. 10 Q3 2017 used if available, otherwise 1H 2017. The same time period is always used for the data usage and the revenue development.

Telia, SE

Tele2, SE

Telenor, SE3, SE

3, DK

Telenor, DK

TDC, DK Telia, DK

Elisa, FI

Telia, FI

DNA, FI

Telekom, DE

3, AT

3, UK

Play, PL

Proximus, BE

Vodafone, IT

TIM, IT

Wind 3, IT

KPN, NLVodafone Ziggo, NL

Tele2, NL

Vodafone, PT

MEO, PT

Free, FR

Bouygues, FR

Telenor, NO

Telia, NOIce, NO

Telia, LTTele2, LT

MegaFon, RU

Beeline, RU

Türk Telekom, TR

Vodafone, TR

Beeline, UZKyivstar, UA

Movistar, ARVivo, BR TIM, BR

Movistar, MX

Maxis, MYCelcom, MY

Singtel, SG

M1, SG

SK Telecom, KR

LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Ncell, NP

Vodafone, INVEON, PK

Airtel, INIndosat, ID

Idea, IN

Unicom, CN

China Mobile, CN

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. FY16-1H/Q317 [local curr.]

1H/Q3 2017

FY 2016

Declining ARPU Increasing ARPU

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Uzbekistan, -24% in Argentina vs. EUR). The position of the two Turkish operators Vodafone and Türk

Telekom is likely also because of the weakened Turkish Lira (-23% vs. EUR).

47% of the operators are on branches facing left. They have had data usage

growth, but still a decline in ARPU. There are a couple of markets standing out

quite negatively here: India, bottom left, is one. Jio’s disruptive entry has not only

increased the data traffic a lot, it has been quite negative for the ARPU development

of Vodafone, Airtel and Idea.

Taiwan is another market with issues: All three major operators – Taiwan Mobile,

FarEasTone and Chunghwa – are experiencing quick ARPU depreciation in spite of

fast expansion of the data usage.

To better be able to analyse the Christmas tree, let’s first highlight the maturing markets and then the

mature markets.

Data usage grows

for 100% of

operators

ARPU grows for

53% of operators

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Maturing markets

After having highlighted only the maturing markets, it becomes quite clear why our operator Christmas tree

looks better than our mature market focused Christmas tree in our country analysis: The contribution from

the maturing market operators is generally positive.

Figure 16. Mobile data usage development vs. ARPU development – FY 2016 to 1H 2017 or Q3 2017 – maturing markets

Let’s identify a few maturing market best practices from Figure 16 – where local currency depreciation

doesn’t seem to be the explanation:

The Malaysian operators Celcom and Maxis have both been able to grow ARPU – also beyond the

depreciation of the local currency (-9% vs. EUR)

The Russian operators Beeline, MTS and MegaFon have all been able to grow ARPU

The Argentinian operator Movistar has been able to grow ARPU – also beyond the depreciation of

the local currency (-24% vs. EUR)

China Mobile has been able to grow ARPU – also beyond the depreciation of the local currency (-7%

vs. EUR)

The Brazilian operators TIM and Vivo have both been able to grow ARPU

MegaFon, RU

Beeline, RU

Türk Telekom, TR

Vodafone, TR

Beeline, UZKyivstar, UA

Movistar, ARVivo, BR TIM, BR

Movistar, MX

Maxis, MYCelcom, MY

Ncell, NP

Vodafone, INVEON, PK

Airtel, INIndosat, ID

Idea, IN

Unicom, CN

China Mobile, CN

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. FY16-1H/Q317 [local curr.]

1H/Q3 2017

FY 2016

Declining ARPU Increasing ARPU

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Mature markets

The mature market tree, see Figure 17, is providing a view with less ARPU growth compared to the maturing

markets. Generally speaking, it seems to be more of a zero-sum game where ARPU overall isn’t growing.

Figure 17. Mobile data usage development vs. ARPU development – FY 2016 to 1H 2017 or Q3 2017 – mature markets

But there are a few best practices also in mature markets:

The Finnish operators DNA, Elisa and Telia have all been able to grow ARPU following the data

traffic growth even though, as said, most of their contracts come with unlimited data volume

Play in Poland has also been able to grow its ARPU

Telia in Norway has also had a good growth in ARPU – in contrast to Telenor that declined

Tele2 in the Netherlands (hiding under Telia Norway) has had a good growth in ARPU – in contrast

to Vodafone Ziggo11 and KPN that both declined

Tele2 Lithuania (and to some extent Telia) have had ARPU growth

Vodafone Italy (and to some extent TIM) have had ARPU growth – at the expense of 3 Wind

Vodafone Portugal has had ARPU growth – at the expense of MEO

Vodafone Greece has – from a low level – been able to increase data usage and ARPU

11 Vodafone sold its fixed business when creating the JV with Ziggo. The ARPU trend is exaggerated as Vodafone included its small fixed

business in its reported service revenue. The mobile service revenue of Vodafone Ziggo is in decline also in 2017 (Q3 vs. Q1 -4.4%).

Telia, SE

Tele2, SE

Telenor, SE3, SE

3, DK

Telenor, DK

TDC, DK Telia, DK

Elisa, FI

Telia, FI

DNA, FI

Telekom, DE

3, AT

3, UK

Play, PL

Proximus, BE

Vodafone, IT

TIM, IT

Wind 3, IT

KPN, NLVodafone Ziggo, NL

Tele2, NL

Vodafone, PT

MEO, PT

Free, FR

Bouygues, FR

Telenor, NO

Telia, NOIce, NO

Telia, LTTele2, LT

Singtel, SG

M1, SG

SK Telecom, KR

LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Gb

yte

pe

r S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. FY16-1H/Q317 [local curr.]

1H/Q3 2017

FY 2016

Declining ARPU Increasing ARPU

1H/Q3 2017

FY 2016

Declining ARPU Increasing ARPU

Vodafone, GR

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Conclusion

Our Christmas tree graph shows that

data usage grows for all operators – and

that 53% of these operators have been

able to turn that into ARPU growth.

Operators in maturing markets – with

India as a clear exception – are generally

faring better in ARPU growth than

operators in mature markets. Even if so,

we have been able to identify around ten

mature market operators that clearly are

delivering on the “more for more”

promise. These are the operators that

have proven their capability to monetise

an increasing mobile data usage.

For 47% of the operators, the reality is different: Data usage increases, sometimes strongly, but

the ARPU still decreases. These operators are following the “more for less” stream.

International telco competitiveness specialist providing operators and suppliers with analysis, benchmarks and go-to-

market preparation. Expertise in quad-play, data monetisation, customer loyalty, Nonstop Retention®, mobile video, Wi-

Fi business models and high margin equipment sales.

www.tefficient.com