XX Strategic Importance of Baluchistan

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THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF BALOCHISTAN

by

J ason R. Mur t ha

J une 2011

Thesi s Advi sor : Anshu Chat t er j eeSecond Reader : Fer oz Khan


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Bal ochi st an, t he sout hwester n pr ovi nce of Paki st an, i s t aki ng on i ncr eased i mport ancei n r egi onal af f ai r s. Wi t h t he di scover y of vast f i el ds of nat ur al gas, al ong wi t hot her val uabl e mi ner al s, t he r egi on i s exper i enci ng i ncreased i nt er est f r om f or ei gni nvest or s and devel opers. Al ong wi t h t hi s, t he t er r ai n of Bal ochi st an makes i t a pr i mel ocat i on f or t he devel opment of r oads, r ai l r oads and pi pel i nes t o connect t he Mi ddl eEast , Cent r al Asi a and Sout h Asi a. To augment t hi s devel opment , t he const r uct i on of adeep- wat er por t at Gwadar has t he pot ent i al of br i ngi ng gl obal i zat i on to t he regi on i nan exponent i al manner . I n t he f ace of t hi s devel opment and growt h are t he Bal och whosecont i nued i nsurgenci es have cr eated an unst abl e envi r onment . Al t hough deter r i ng l arge-scal e gr owt h, i nt er est i n t he r egi on cont i nues t o gr ow, and wi t h i t , t he t hr eat ofi nt er nat i onal pol i t i cs and agendas col l i di ng i n a vi ol ent manner as Bal ochi st an gr ows.As such, t he st r at egi c i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an l i es i n i t s pot ent i al t o ei t her t aket he f or ef r ont i n devel opment i n Sout h Asi a, or be the epi cent er of t he next l arge- scal emul t i nat i onal conf l i ct. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Paki st an, Bal ochi st an, I nsur gency, Aut onomy,Ener gy, Ter r ai n, Cul t ur e, St r at egi c, Chi na , Nat ur al Gas, Gwadar

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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF BALOCHISTAN

J ason R. Mur t haMaj or , Uni t ed St at es Mar i ne Cor ps

B. S. , Okl ahoma St at e Uni ver si t y, 1996

Submi t t ed i n par t i al f ul f i l l ment of t her equi r ement s f or t he degr ee of

MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES

(Mid East, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa)

f r om t he

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

June 2011

Aut hor : J ason R. Mur t ha

Appr oved by: Anshu Chat t er j ee, PhDThesi s Advi sor

Fer oz KhanSecond Reader

Harol d A. Tr i nkunas, PhDChai r , Depar t ment of Nat i onal Secur i t yAf f ai rs


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ABSTRACT

Bal ochi st an, t he sout hwest er n pr ovi nce of Paki st an, i s

t aki ng on i ncreased i mpor t ance i n r egi onal af f ai r s. Wi t h

t he di scover y of vast f i el ds of nat ur al gas, al ong wi t h

ot her val uabl e mi ner al s, t he r egi on i s exper i enci ng

i ncreased i nt er est f r om f or ei gn i nvest or s and devel oper s.

Al ong wi t h t hi s, t he t er r ai n of Bal ochi st an makes i t a

pr i me l ocat i on f or t he devel opment of r oads, r ai l r oads and

pi pel i nes t o connect t he Mi ddl e East , Cent r al Asi a and

Sout h Asi a. To augment t hi s devel opment , t he const r uct i on

of a deep- water por t at Gwadar has t he pot ent i al of

br i ngi ng gl obal i zat i on t o t he r egi on i n an exponent i al

manner . I n t he f ace of t hi s devel opment and gr owt h are t he

Bal och, whose cont i nued i nsur genci es have cr eat ed an

unst abl e envi r onment . Al t hough det er r i ng l ar ge- scal e

gr owt h, i nt er est i n t he r egi on cont i nues t o gr ow, and wi t h

i t , t he t hr eat of i nt er nat i onal pol i t i cs and agendas

col l i di ng i n a vi ol ent manner as Bal ochi st an gr ows. As

such, t he st r at egi c i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an l i es i n i t s

pot ent i al t o ei t her t ake t he f or ef r ont i n devel opment i n

Sout h Asi a, or be t he epi cent er of t he next l ar ge- scal e

mul t i nat i onal conf l i ct .


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION ............................................1

A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION ............................1

B.

IMPORTANCE .........................................2C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES ............................5

1.

PROBLEMS ......................................5

2. HYPOTHESES ....................................6

D. LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................7

E. METHODS AND SOURCES ...............................13

F. CHAPTER OVERVIEW ..................................14

II. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF HUMAN AND NATURAL TERRAIN ..15

A. INTRODUCTION ......................................15

B. THE CROSSROADS OF COMMERCE ........................16

C. HUMAN TERRAIN .....................................18

1.

The Baloch ...................................19

D. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ..................................211.

Pipelines ....................................22

2. Road Networks ................................25

3. Rail Networks ................................29

E. CONCLUSION ........................................31

III. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF RESOURCES ..................33

A. INTRODUCTION ......................................33

B. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF GWADAR PORT TO

PAKISTANI ECONOMICS ...............................33

C. REGIONAL COMPETITION: GWADAR AND CHABAHAR .........39

D.

THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE INSURGENCY .................44

E. THE EFFECTS OF THE INSURGENCY .....................49

F. THE BENEFITS OF GWADAR ............................50

G. CONCLUSION ........................................53

IV. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF MOTIVE AND AGENDAS .........55A.

INTRODUCTION ......................................55

B. AUTONOMY AND THE PRESERVATION OF CULTURE ..........56

C. INDIRECT APPEALS FOR SUPPORT ......................59

D. DIRECT APPEALS FOR SUPPORT ........................65

E. INCONSISTENT MESSAGES .............................67

F. CONCLUSION ........................................69

V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION .................................71

A. CHAPTER SUMMARY ...................................71

B. READING THE TEA-LEAVES ............................74

LIST OF REFERENCES ..........................................77

INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ...................................91


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LIST OF FIGURES

Fi gur e 1:

Map of Gr eat er Bal ochi st an Wi t h I nset ofGwadar Por t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Fi gur e 2:

Pr oposed and Exi st i ng Nat ur al Gas Pi pel i nes i nSout h Asi a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Fi gur e 3: Exi st i ng and Pr oposed Road Network i nBal ochi st an. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Fi gur e 4: Cur r ent Rai l way Net wor k of Bal ochi st an. . . . . . . . . . 30Fi gur e 5:

Cur r ent and Proposed Gas and Oi l Pi pel i nes Fr omCent r al Asi a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Fi gur e 6:

St r at egi c l ocat i on of Gwadar and Possi bl e Oi lLi nes Through t he Regi on. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Fi gur e 7: Chi na' s St r i ng of Pear l s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Fi gur e 8: Casual t y Fi gur es i n Vi ol ent I nci dent s i n

Paki st an, J anuar y 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62


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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

For Mandy,Your l ove and encouragement pushes me t o r each new hei ghts,

maki ng us a t r ul y unst oppabl e t eam

For Logan, Bai l l ey and Ai den,Thank you f or r emi ndi ng me t o l augh and enj oy t he wor l d

ar ound me


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1

I. INTRODUCTION

A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION

The ar ea of present - day Bal ochi st an i n Paki st an hasbeen at t he cr ossr oads of conquer or s, expl or er s, set t l er s

and t r ader s f or al l of r ecor ded hi st or y. I t s l ocat i on i s

i deal l y sui t ed f or t r avel al ong t he coast f r om t he Mi ddl e

East t owar d I ndi a and beyond, as wel l a cr i t i cal hub f or

goods t o and f r om Paki st an, Cent r al Asi a and poi nt s nor t h.

As a maj or cr ossr oad, i t i s cur i ous t hat t he ar ea shoul d be

so uni nhabi t ed, a deser t of myst ery and unknown.

Pr i or t o Par t i t i on, t he Br i t i sh used i t as a buf f er

st at e, whi ch means t hey admi ni st er ed i t i ndi r ect l y t hough

t r i bal l eader s and chi ef s, a pr act i ce t hat cont i nued af t er

t he creat i on of t he Paki st ani st at e despi t e sever al

i nsur gent out br eaks. 1 Cur r ent l y, t he Paki st an gover nment

str uggl es t o cont r ol i t i n or der t o mai nt ai n t er r i t or i al

sover ei gnt y al ong wi t h t he newf ound mi neral and ot her

r esour ces. The Bal och have si nce 1947 l aunched f i ve r evol t s

agai nst t he cent r al gover nment .

However , i t s i mpor t ance has come i ncr easi ngl y i nt o

f ocus, due t o t he wor l d s changi ng pol i t i cal and economi c

si t uat i on because, as Kapl an poi nt s out , compet i t i on i s

becomi ng f i ercer wi t h di mi ni shi ng amount s of new or

emer gi ng mar ket s. 2 The cur r ent conf l i ct t hat i s t aki ng

pl ace i n Af ghani st an al so poi nt s t o t he i mpor t ance of t hi s

1 St anl ey Wol per t , A New History of India ( Oxf or d: Oxf ord Uni ver si t yPr ess, 2000) , 2- 5.

2 Rober t D. Kapl an, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future ofAmerican Power ( New Yor k Ci t y: Random House, 2010) , 4- 5.


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r egi on as i t ser ves as t he ent r y poi nt f or mi l i t ar y and

r el i ef l ogi st i cs headi ng i nt o t he combat zone. As combat

oper at i ons i nt ensi f y, Bal ochi st an i s i ncreasi ngl y becomi ng

a saf e haven f or NATO s enemi es, whi ch t hr eatens t o br i ng

t he nei ghbor i ng war t o the Bal och door st ep. 3 These i ssues,

al ong wi t h a hi st or y of domest i c t r oubl es wi t h t he cent er ,

ar e pot ent i al i ndi cat or s of f ut ur e concer n t hat r equi r es

mor e at t ent i on. Wi t h i ncr easi ng pr essur es f r om r egi onal

and i nt er nat i onal act or s i n t hei r bi ds f or power and

i nf l uence, and wi t h i t s pr i me l ocat i on al ong mul t i pl e sea

and l and r out es t o mul t i pl e bar el y t apped mar ket s, what i s

t he st r at egi c i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an?

B. IMPORTANCE

Number s of secur i t y i ssues of gl obal di mensi ons are

l i nked t o what i s t aki ng pl ace i n Paki st an. Saf e havens

f or t er r or i st s, ext r emi st s and gun and dr ug smuggl er s al ong

i t s west er n bor der i nvi t e pr essur es f r om t he Uni t ed St at es

and i t s al l i es. Ener gy i ssues, not onl y i n Sout h Asi a, but

al so Eur ope, Russi a and Chi na, have br ought i ncr eased

i nt er est i n t he r egi on. Wi t h pl ans f or pi pel i nes t o car r y

nat ur al gas and oi l t hat ei t her or i gi nat e or t r ansi t

Paki st an, and mor e speci f i cal l y Bal ochi st an, t he secur i t y

of t he r egi on and paci f i cat i on of t he Bal och t akes on

i ncr eased i mport ance. 4 To t he east i s t he endur i ng secur i t y

di l emma wi t h I ndi a t hat has become mor e t enuous now t hat

bot h count r i es ar e nucl ear - ar med. I nt er nal l y, var i ous

3 Pepe Escobar , Balochistan is the Ultimate Prize, May 9, 2009,ht t p: / / www. at i mes. com/ at i mes/ Sout h_Asi a/ KE09Df 03. ht ml .

4 UNPO, "Bal ochi st an: I t s I mport ance For The I r an- Paki st an- I ndi a GasPi pel i ne, Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization, March 23,2010, ht t p: / / www. unpo. or g/ ar t i cl e/ 10894.


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f act i ons ar e vyi ng f or cont r ol at t he l ocal , r egi onal and

nat i onal l evel , r equi r i ng t he gover nment t o exer t const ant

mi l i t ar y i nt er vent i on agai nst t hei r own peopl e. For

i nst ance, t he mi l i t ar y s pr esence i n FATA ar eas i s assur ed

f or year s t o come wi t h i t s hal f - hear t ed ef f or t s and

shi f t i ng pr i or i t i es. 5 Shor t ages of nat ur al r esour ces and

st r at egi c l ocat i on ar e pr i me f act or s f or addi t i onal

i nt er nat i onal pr essures pl aced on t he gover nment .

I r oni cal l y, t hese same resour ces ar e the reason why t he

Paki st ani cent r al gover nment cannot af f or d t o deal wi t h t he

i nsur gent s demands. Wi t h t he vi t al necessi t y of t he

r esour ces, as wel l as t he secur i t y of t he r egi on f orext r act i on and di st r i but i on, whi l e t he Bal och have mor e

i ncent i ve t o f i ght , t he cent r al gover nment has

exponent i al l y mor e r eason t o f or t he r ut hl ess cr ushi ng of

t he i nsur gency. 6

Gi ven t hi s cont ext , Bal ochi st an s i mpor t ance t o t he

var i ous power br oker s i n t he r egi on i s appar ent despi t e t he

f act t hat i t was sol el y a nat i onal concer n f or year s.

I nstabi l i t y i n Bal ochi stan i s not l i mi t ed t o Paki stani

pol i t i cs, nor can i t be di smi ssed as a r egi onal I sl ami c

i ssue, as t he Bal och, whi l e Musl i m, ar e secul ar i n t hei r

pol i t i cs. Wi t h r epeat ed cl ai ms f or gr eat er l evel s of

aut onomy f or t he Bal och, t hi s i s l ar gel y a nat i onal i st i c

movement . For t he Paki st ani government , who has deal t wi t h

var i ous spl i nt er f act i ons, t hi s i s anot her i nsur gency t hat

5 Ahmed Rashi d, "Renewed St r ai ns Bet ween I sl amabad and Washi ngt on, "BBC News South Asia, J une 25, 2010, ht t p: / / www. bbc. co. uk/ news/ 10375056.

6 Dr . Rober t J . Wi r si ng, "Bal och Nat i onal i sm and t he Geopol i t i cs ofEner gy Resour ces: The Changi ng Cont ext of Separat i sm i n Paki st an, Strategic Studies Institute: United States Army War College, Apr i l2008,ht t p: / / www. st r ategi cst udi esi nst i t ut e. army. mi l / pubs/ summary. cf m?q=853


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cannot succeed, as i t woul d add f uel t o ot her cl ai mant s

al ong si mi l ar l i nes; t her e cannot be anot her Bangl adesh.

Pr i or t o t he di scover y of nat ur al r esour ces, t hi s was a

l ocal pr obl em t hat was r ar el y pai d at t ent i on t o by ot her

nat i ons unt i l t he Sovi et i nvasi on of Af ghani st an. Har r i son,

f or i nst ance, f i r st pr edi ct ed a wor st - case scenar i o

i nvol vi ng a Sovi et war i n Af ghani st an, t he r eact i on of t he

r egi on and t he st r at egi c si gni f i cance of Bal ochi st an. 7 When

t hi s hypot het i cal si t uat i on became a r eal i t y i n 1979,

Harr i son expanded upon hi s ear l i er work showi ng a Sovi et

bi d f or a deep- water port on t he I ndi an Ocean, and

speci f i cal l y t he r ol e t hat t he Bal och pot ent i al l y hel d i nt hi s endeavor . 8

Cur r ent l y, t he i nt er nat i onal pl ayer s i nt er est ed i n t he

r egi on have expanded. Secur i t y i ssues i n t he r egi on i nvol ve

gl obal pl ayer s such as Chi na, I r an, and I ndi a i n t he

pol i t i cs and t he f ut ur e of Bal ochi st an. 9 The st at e i s

i deal l y si t uat ed f or access t o Sout h and Cent r al Asi a, t he

Mi ddl e East and t he east coast of Af r i ca. I t i s posed f or

over l and t r avel t o Russi a, as wel l as a mar ket pl ace f or

East and Sout heast Asi an goods. I t has pl ent y of r eal

est at e f or ext ensi ve bui l di ng pr oj ect s, al ong wi t h access

t o a cheap l abor pool . Thi s unski l l ed l abor , however ,

creat es addi t i onal pr obl ems, as t echni cal pr oj ect s r equi r e

augment at i on f r om ski l l ed Punj abi l abor . Mi l i t ar i l y, i t i s

i mpor t ant f r om a l ogi st i cal st andpoi nt as i t pr ovi des a

7 Sel i g S. Har r i son, "Ni ght mar e i n Bal uchi st an, Foreign Policy,Autumn, 1978: 136- 160, 137.

8 Sel i g S. Har r i son, In Afghanistan's Shadow: Baluch Nationalism andSoviet Temptations ( Washi ngt on, D. C. : Carnegi e Endowment f orI nt er nat i onal Peace, 1981) .

9 Kapl an, Monsoon, 10.


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l ocat i on f or t he rapi d bui l dup of power and onwar d

depl oyment and resuppl y t o each of t he af orement i oned

l ocat i ons. From a def ensi ve st andpoi nt , an advanced ai r

f or ce and navy oper at i ng f r om Bal ochi st an can al so exer t

cont r ol over t he St r ai t s of Hor muz as wel l as t he shi ppi ng

l anes t r ansi t i ng across t he I ndi an Ocean. Fi nal l y, t he

pl et hor a of val uabl e nat ur al r esour ces di scover ed i n

Bal ochi st an has made t hi s ar ea al l t he mor e cr i t i cal i n t he

compl ex st r at egi c i nt er est s of mul t i pl e st at es. Because of

t hese reasons, t he l ocat i on and r i ches of Bal ochi st an have

t aken a dr amat i c r i se i n i mpor t ance t o t he r egi onal and

i nt er nat i onal communi t y.

C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES

1. PROBLEMS

Why shoul d we care what i s happeni ng i n Bal ochi st an?

As descr i bed, t he i mpor t ance of t he r egi on i s due i t s

l ocat i on and t he pr esence of r esour ces, and not t he Bal och

t hemsel ves, al t hough t hey ar e deepl y af f ect ed r ai si ng t he

i ssue of human r i ght s. 10 As nat i onal economi es expand i nt o

var i ous mar ket s and compet i t i on f or val uabl e resour ces

i nt ensi f i es, Bal ochi st an due t o i t s l ocat i on and r esour ces

st ands t o be caught i n t he cr ossf i r e of mul t i pl e agendas.

The Bal och have i l l ust r at ed t hat t hey ar e wi l l i ng and abl e

t o put up f i er ce r esi st ance i n or der t o pr eser ve t hei r

homel and and way of l i f e. Di st r ust of not onl y f or ei gn

gover nment s, but al so t hei r own Paki st ani gover nment i sappar ent . Cer t ai n oppor t uni st s i n t he var i ous Bal och

10 Raza Rumi , "Paki st an: Separ at i sm and i t s Di scont ent s, HumanRights Watch, December 30, 2010,ht t p: / / www. hr w. org/ en/ news/ 2010/ 12/ 30/ paki st an- separat i sm- and- i t s-di scont ent s.


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r esi st ance movement s at t empt s t o pl ay i nt er nat i onal

i nt er est s agai nst Paki st an i n hopes of gai ni ng i ndependence

or hi gher l evel of aut onomy. For exampl e, Paki st an has

accused I ndi a of hel pi ng t he Bal och wi t h t hei r

i nsur genci es, i ncl udi ng t he cur r ent st r uggl e. 11 These

ef f or t s have t hus f ar not amount ed t o any t angi bl e resul t s

except cause mi l i t ar y i nt er vent i on i n t he st at e; however ,

as i nt er est i n t he ar ea i ncreases, t her e i s t he pot ent i al

f or gr eat powers t o maneuver agai nst each ot her pushi ng

Bal och i nt er est s asi de. Gi ven t hat , t he quest i on t hat

gui des t hi s t hesi s i s why i t i s st r at egi cal l y cr i t i cal t o

sol ve t he l ong- l ast i ng pr obl em of Bal ochi st an and whypossi bl e sol ut i ons have t o i nvol ve t he i nt er nat i onal

communi t y.

2. HYPOTHESES

The t hesi s i s gui ded by t he r ecent hi st or y of t he

Bal och who ar e adamant about mai nt ai ni ng thei r way of l i f e

and cont r ol l i ng t hei r own r esour ces, an obst i nacy t hat l ef t

unchanged wi l l keep t hem wr apped i n conf l i ct wi t h t he

cent r al aut hor i t i es. Al so i t s gr owi ng i nt er nat i onal

i mpor t ance i s cr i t i cal f or under st andi ng what l i es i n i t s

f ut ur e, gi ven t he f act t hat mer el y 30 year s ago, onl y

sur r oundi ng r egi onal power s, such as I ndi a and I r an, car ed

about what was occur r i ng i n t he st ate. However , I argue

her e t hat t he changes i n t he i nt er nat i onal and r egi onal

set t i ng mean t hat a negl ect ed Bal ochi st an may t ur n i nt o thenext ser i ous gl obal conf l i ct , whi ch can be aver t ed t hr ough

11 ANI , "' Undeni abl e' evi dence r egar di ng I ndi a' s i nvol vement i nBal och i nsur gency: Mal i k, OneIndia News, March 23, 2010,ht t p: / / news. onei ndi a. i n/ 2010/ 03/ 23/ undeni abl eevi dence- r egar di ng- i ndi as-i nvol vement - i nbal oc. ht ml .


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t i mel y acti on. I n addi t i on, I ar gue t hat i t i s i mpor t ant

f or t he i nt er nat i onal communi t y t o get i nvol ved gi ven t he

hi st or y of cent er - st at e r el at i ons and t he r egi onal secur i t y

concer ns. Fi nal l y, wi t h i t s st r at egi c l ocat i on at the

crossroads of count r i es wi t h et hni c t ur moi l , l ogi st i cal

access and pl ent y of pl aces t o hi de, Bal ochi st an i s i deal l y

sui t ed as a f ut ur e saf e- haven f or t er r or i st s.

D. LITERATURE REVIEW

The i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an appears t o ebb and f l ow

wi t h t he t i mes and t he cur r ent l ocal and r egi onal power

str uct ur e. What i s al so cl ear f r om t he avai l abl el i t er at ur e i s t hat t he Bal och have an uncanny resi st ance t o

change. Wi t h l i t t l e i n t he way of wr i t t en r ecor ds kept by

t he Bal och, t he ear l i est account s are f r om t he conquer or s

and t r ader s t hat i nt er act ed wi t h t he Bal och. Al t hough

i nt er est i ng, t her e i s no r eal det ai l pr ovi ded unt i l t he

t i me of t he Br i t i sh occupat i on, and i t i s f r om t hese

wr i t i ngs t hat we f i r st begi n t o gai n an under st andi ng of

t he peopl e and t he l andscape.

I n t he 1840s, a deser t er f r om t he Br i t i sh mi l i t ar y

wr i t i ng under t he pseudonym Char l es Masson, descr i bed hi s

j ourneys t hrough Bal ochi st an and t he sur r oundi ng ar eas. 12

These wor ks pai nt a pi ct ure of l i f e wi t h t he nomads. I t

al so poi nt s out t he i mpor t ance of t he Sar dar i ( t r i bal )

syst em t hat wi l l pl ay so pr omi nent l y i n Bal och i nsur gency a

cent ur y l at er . Al t hough not maki ng any mi l i t ar y orpol i t i cal cl ai ms about t he i mpor t ance of t he r egi on or t he

peopl e, out si de of casual obser vat i ons r egar di ng f er t i l i t y

12 Char l es Masson, Narrative of Various Journeys in Balochistan,Afghanistan and the Panjab ( London: Ri chard Bent l ey, 1842) .


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of t he r egi on and wat er , Masson s wr i t i ngs spur r ed i nt er est

i n t he r egi on t hat woul d l ead t o mi l i t ar y and pol i t i cal

deci si ons. Thi s i nt er est was i n l ar ge par t due t o t he

Gr eat Game bet ween Br i t ai n and Russi a, especi al l y as

Russi a gai ned domi nance i n Cent r al Asi a wi t h an eye toward

t he I ndi an Ocean and t he vast market s al ong the l and and

sea Si l k Roads. 13

The gener al t hemes r egar di ng t he r egi on echo ear l i er

anal yses of a har sh l andscape devoi d of anythi ng usef ul .

I n 1882, Si r Char l es Met cal f e MacGr egor vi si t ed

Bal ochi st an, ar r i vi ng at Gwadar and t r avel l i ng al ong t he

coast bef or e t ur ni ng i nl and. 14 Wi t h t he Gr eat Game i n f ul l

swi ng and the domi nance of t he Br i t i sh Navy, a passi ng

r emar k i s made as t he sui t abi l i t y of Gwadar as a por t , but

i s l ar gel y di smi ssed due t o t he l ack of r esour ces or

f i ni shed goods t o buy, or any si gni f i cant si zed popul at i on

t o sel l t o. The i mpor t ance of t he r oad net wor ks connect i ng

I ndi a wi t h Af ghani st an and Cent r al Asi a and I r an ar e

comment ed on, but t he mai n argument cent er s agai n on t he

l ocat i on as a usef ul buf f er zone f r om f or ei gn at t acks f r om

t he west or t he nor t h, as wel l as t he usef ul ness of t he

Bal och i n f i ght i ng any t r ansgr essor s t o t he r egi on.

I n 1904, Mansel Longwor t h Dames wr ot e about t he Bal och

peopl e, 15 agai n mi r r or i ng many of t he observat i ons al r eady

made. Wr i t t en f r om an ant hr opol ogi cal vi ew, i t demonst r at es

13 Davi d Fr omki n, "The Gr eat Game i n Asi a, Foreign Affairs, Spr i ng1980, ht t p: / / www. f or ei gnaf f ai r s. com/ ar t i cl es/ 33619/ davi d- f r omki n/ t he-gr eat - game- i n- asi a.

14 Si r Charl es Met cal f e MacGr egor, Wanderings in Balochistan ( London:W. H. Al l en and Co. , 1882) .

15 Mansel Longwor t h Dames, The Baloch Race: A Historical andEthnological Sketch ( London: Royal Asi ati c Soci et y, 1904) , 34- 40.


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t he uni t y and power exer t ed by t hi s t r i bal peopl e,

especi al l y i n r el at i on t o t he Sar dar . I n t hi s wor k, mor e

emphasi s i s pl aced on t he Sardar as t he rol e model and

voi ce of t he peopl e, observat i ons t hat woul d have pr oven

benef i ci al i n j ust a f ew shor t decades at Par t i t i on.

Taken i ndi vi dual l y, t hese account s ar e i nt er est i ng

di ver si ons about l i f e i n an ear l i er t i me. However , t her e

are some ver y tel l i ng poi nt s t hat can be dr awn out of t hem

t hat ar e si gni f i cant t oday. Fi r st i s t he l ack of mat er i al

r esour ces. Eur opeans wr i t e t he books t hat we have wi t h a

f ocus on t he Gr eat Game, l eadi ng to a r epet i t i ve account of

t he l ack of r esour ces, t ough peopl e and val ue as a buf f er

st at e. Fol l owi ng Par t i t i on i n 1947, t her e r emai ns ver y

l i t t l e wr i t t en about t he r egi on out si de of comment s about

t he l at est i nsur gency t hat Paki st an has t o deal wi t h.

Al t hough t her e i s a smal l f l ur r y of act i vi t y when East

Paki st an br eaks of f and becomes Bangl adesh, Bal ochi st an i s

st i l l wi del y i gnor ed by t he r est of t he wor l d despi t e

ext ensi ve mi l i t ar y act i vi t y i n t he r egi on under Zul f i kar

Bhut t o. Dur i ng t he per i od f r om 19721977, he di sbanded t he

Bal ochi st an gover nment , sent r oughl y 30, 000 t r oops i nt o

Bal ochi st an and ki l l ed an est i mat ed 9, 000 mi l i t ant s and

ci vi l i ans. Thi s exempl i f i ed t he br oader pr obl ems i n

Paki st an f ol l owi ng Bangl adesh i ndependence as I r an assi st ed

t he Paki st ani cent r al gover nment mai nt ai n cont r ol whi l e

I r aq and t he Sovi et s wer e cover t l y suppl yi ng t he Bal och

r ebel s i n what coul d be per cei ved as a pr ecur sor of Sovi et

ambi t i ons l eadi ng up t o t he Sovi et / Af ghan War al ong wi t h

br oader regi onal r i val r i es. I t i s not unt i l t he ear l y

1980 s wi t h t he di scover y of copper and coal , al ong wi t h

t he nat ur al gas al r eady bei ng ext r act ed, t hat Bal ochi st an


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begi ns gai ni ng l ar ger i nt er est , namel y f r om I ndi a and I r an

and t he pr oposed I r anPaki st anI ndi a ( I PI ) pi pel i ne, wi t h

di scussi ons al so begi nni ng wi t h Cent r al Asi a, Russi a and

Chi na f or addi t i onal pi pel i nes or spur s of f of t he I PI . 16

Wi t h t hese new f i nds and t he war next - door i n f ul l

swi ng, Bal ochi st an i s not l ooked at i n l ar ger st r at egi c

i mpor t ance out si de of spor adi c bi l at er al or t r i l at er al

di scussi ons bet ween gl obal power s and t he Paki st ani cent r al

government . Fur t hermore, al t hough human r i ght s and povert y

l evel s ar e ci t ed by l eadi ng NGOs, t he r het or i c has f ai l ed

t o cause act i on, r epr i sal or sanct i ons agai nst Paki st an.

Aut hors l i ke Meht ab Al i Shah, among many ot her s, poi nt t o

t he i mpact of mi l l i ons of r ef ugees ar r i vi ng i n Bal ochi st an

dur i ng t he Sovi et / Af ghan War af t er 1979. 17 Many of t hese

account s al so t i e i n t he Tal i ban and cross- bor der at t acks,

whi ch ar e not surpr i si ng as t hey were encour aged and f unded

by nat i ons i nvol ved i n t he Sovi et cont ai nment pol i cy of t he

Col d War , and t her ef or e car r y l i t t l e r el evance. Pet er

Bl ood argues t hat t he Sovi et s wer e t r yi ng t o woo t he Bal och

i nt o anot her r evol t agai nst t he cent er and t hat such

act i ons woul d be rewarded wi t h aut onomy f ol l owi ng t he

Sovi et vi ct or y i n Af ghani st an. 18 Ot her aut hors such as

Shaheen Khan have f ocused on Bal ochi st an as i t r el ates t o

r egi onal conf l i ct resol ut i on. He poi nt s t o t he pr obl ems

16 Ar i el Cohen, Li sa Cur t i s, and Owen Gr aham, "The Pr oposed I r an-Paki st an- I ndi a Gas Pi pel i ne: An Unaccept abl e Ri sk to Regi onal

Secur i t y, The Heritage Foundation,

May 30, 2008,ht t p: / / www. her i t age. org/ r esear ch/ r eport s/ 2008/ 05/ t he- pr oposed- i r an-paki st an- i ndi a- gaspi pel i ne- an- unaccept abl e- r i sk- t o- r egi onal - secur i t y.

17 Meht ab Al i Shah, The Foreign Policy of Pakistan: Ethnic Impacts onDiplomacy 1971 1994 ( New Yor k Ci t y: I . B. Taur us and Co Lt d, 1997) ,32- 35.

18 Pet er R. Bl ood, Pakistan: A Country Study ( Washi ngt on, D. C. :Feder al Resear ch Di vi si on, Li br ary of Congr ess, 1995) , 4- 5.


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t hat Paki st an has wi t hi n i t s bor der s as wel l as wi t h i t s

i mmedi at e nei ghbor s, as t he real r easons t hat Paki st an has

not exper i enced mor e growt h. 19 Hi s argument s are present ed

wel l ; however , t hey are mi r ed i n obvi ous observat i ons and

r egi onal bi ases and l ack any possi bl e wor kabl e sol ut i ons.

Mary Ann Weaver s pr ovi des a good account of t he l i f e

and pol i t i cs of t he moder n Bal och as i t r el at es t o t he

Paki st ani gover nment , i nt er - t r i bal r el at i onshi ps and t he

r egi onal i mpact of I r ani an, I ndi an and Af ghani st an

pol i t i cs. 20 Her conver sat i ons pr ovi de i nsi ght i nt o what

must be assumed i s gener al sent i ment by t he Bal och about

t he gover nment ( bot h l ocal and nat i onal ) , t hei r nei ghbor s

and t he r esour ce ext r act i on. I f t hi s i s t he ever yman

opi ni on of Bal ochi st an, t han i t l ends credence t o t he

over al l subj ugat i on and mani pul at i on of t he Bal och peopl e

by not onl y nat i onal and i nt er nat i onal pl ayer s, but adds

t he i nt er nal compl exi t y of a gr owi ng di ssent among t he

Bal och t owar d t hei r Sar dar s. I f t hi s i s t he case and a

l eader emer ges t hat i s abl e t o gal vani ze t he peopl e, t hen

ci vi l war i n Bal ochi st an coul d al so be on t he hor i zon t hat

has t he pot ent i al t o dwar f ear l i er conf l i ct s i n t he ar ea.

Thi s asser t i on i s based of f seemi ngl y accepted account s

f r om aut hor s such as Ni na Swi dl er t hat i nsi nuat es t hat t he

compl ex f ami l i al t r i bal syst em i s an endur i ng way of l i f e

and sour ce of cont i nui t y f or t he Bal och ever - changi ng

pol i t i cal l andscape. 21

19 Shaheed Raf i Khan, Regional Trade Integration and ConflictResolution, ( New Yor k Ci t y: Rout l edge, 2009) , 22.

20 Mar y Ann Weaver , Pakistan: In the Shadow of Jihad and Afghanistan( New Yor k Ci t y: Far r ar, St r aus and Gi r oux, 2002) , 29- 30.

21 Ni na Swi dl er , "Kal at : The Pol i t i cal Economy of a Tri bal Chi ef dom, American Ethnologist, August 1992, 553- 570.


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I n t er ms of ext r a- i nt er nat i onal i nt er est i n Bal och,

more r ecent l y, Geof f r ey Kemp22 and Rober t Kapl an23 have

wr i t t en about t he r i si ng r ol e of Chi na s i nvol vement i n

Paki st an. I n t hei r wor ks, t hey begi n t o show a br oader

i nt er nat i onal cont ext r egar di ng Bal ochi st an s si gni f i cance

i n wor l d af f ai r s. Kemp poi nt s t o t he out pour i ng of money

by t he Chi nese t hr oughout Sout h Asi a as t hey at t empt t o

pl ace t hemsel ves i n economi c or di st r i but i on cent er s i n an

at t empt t o cor ner t he gl obal market . 24 Kapl an al so

descr i bes t he st r at egi c i mport ance of Gwadar Por t i n

Bal ochi st an, as wel l as pl anned r oad and pi pel i ne net wor ks

t hat or i gi nat e or t r aver se Bal ochi st an i n a br oadereconomi c cont ext . He f ur t her expr esses how t hese

i ni t i at i ves have t he abi l i t y t o br i ng peace and st abi l i t y

t o t he r egi on as gover nment s pur sue economi c vi ce

i deal i st i c pol i ci es. 25 Thi s t hes i s wi l l ef f ect i vel y t i e al l

of t hese pi eces t oget her t o i l l ust r at e t he gl obal st r at egi c

i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an. I t i s cl ear t hat t he

gover nment s of Paki st an, t he r egi on and i nt er nat i onal l y

have l i t t l e r egar d f or t he Bal och si nce most of t he

r ef er ences ci t ed t hus f ar have f ocused on t he economi c

advant ages of Bal ochi st an. I hope t o show t he i mport ance

and need of a humani t ar i an sol ut i on al ong economi c and

pol i t i cal ones f or a l ong- l ast i ng agr eement or an accor d.

As more i nt er nat i onal act ors begi n t o descend upon t he

r egi on, t he Bal och st and t o be f ur t her mar gi nal i zed wi t hi n

22 Geof f r ey Kemp, The East Moves West: India, China and Asia'sGrowing Presence in the Middle East ( Washi ngt on D. C. : Br ooki ngsI nsti t ut i on Press, 2010) , 4.


24 Kemp, The East Moves West, 6 .



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t hei r own pr ovi nce, a r eact i on t hat has hi st or i cal l y pr oven

t o r esul t i n ar med conf l i ct . I t i s ent i r el y possi bl e t hat

one of t hese upr i si ngs coul d i nvol ve l arge enough number s

of casual t i es f r om f or ei gn count r i es as t o spar k an ar med

r esponse of t hei r own. Wi t h Paki st an s hi st or i cal

accept ance of f or ei gn mi l i t ar i es oper at i ng f r om bases i n

Paki st an, most notabl y t hat of t he Amer i cans whi ch began as

ear l y as 1957, 26 as wel l as l ack of r eper cussi ons when these

mi l i t ar i es ki l l Paki stani ci vi l i ans and mi l i t ar y per sonnel ,

coul d wel l l ead t o a Wi l d West scenar i o. Wi t h i ncr easi ng

number s of count r i es i nvest i ng i n and oper at i ng f r om

Bal ochi st an, t her e i s i ncr eased r i sk of seemi ngl y mi nori nci dent s escal at i ng i nt o i nt er nat i onal i nci dent s t hat

t hr eat en not onl y t he Bal och, but al so al l of Sout h Asi a,

wi t h t he added possi bi l i t y of encompassi ng al l of t he

gl obal i zed power s.

E. METHODS AND SOURCES

The backgr ound i nf or mat i on f or t he f r amewor k of wi l l

come l ar gel y f r om books and j our nal ar t i cl es f r om

hi st or i cal and soci al st udi es sour ces. Addi t i onal l y,

hi st or i cal anal ysi s of var i ous pr i nt medi a f r om t he r egi on

i s needed al ong wi t h Amer i can, Russi an and Chi nese sour ces,

t o get a bet t er i dea of how t he regi on not onl y vi ews

i t sel f , but al so how t hey ar e vi ewed by some of t he maj or

cont ender s i n t he r egi on. Fi nal l y, al t hough a l ack of

academi c r esear ch exi st s i n descr i bi ng t he r egi ons,compar i ng si mi l ar vei ns of t hought f r om var i ous ext r emi st s

26 Aamj ad Syed Al i , Glimpses ( Lahor e: J ang Publ i sher s, 1992) , 32.


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gr oups i n Bal ochi st an may pr esent a pat t er n t hat coul d

pr ovi de cl ues t owar d possi bl e sol ut i ons t o an ongoi ng

pr obl em.

F. CHAPTER OVERVIEW

The second chapt er wi l l i l l ust r at e t he si gni f i cance of

Bal ochi st an due t o i t physi cal geogr aphy i n r el at i on t o

t r anspor t at i on oppor t uni t i es. Namel y, how i t i s i deal l y

si t uat ed f or r oad, r ai l and pi pel i ne t r anspor t at i on of

goods and servi ces t hr oughout t he r egi on as wel l as t he

Mi ddl e East , Cent r al Asi a/ Russi a and Sout h Asi a. The t hi r d

chapt er wi l l show t he si gni f i cance of t he vast , l ar gel yunt apped, nat ur al r esour ces i n Bal ochi st an and how t he

Gwadar Por t pr oj ect t i es i nt o thi s as a means f or

pr opel l i ng Paki st an i nt o gl obal i zat i on. The f our t h chapt er

wi l l show how t he st ated goal s of t he Bal och r un count er t o

di spl ayed agendas and how cont i nued i nsur gency t hr eat ens

t he st abi l i t y of t he r egi on. Fur t her , as t he pur sui t of

t hei r goal s ent er s i ncreasi ng l evel s of i nt er nat i onal

i nvol vement , t he pot ent i al f or i nt er nat i onal i nt er vent i on

al ong wi t h pol i t i cal agendas can t hr ust t he r egi on i nt o

chaos. The f i nal chapt er wi l l t i e t oget her al l of t he

pi eces, showi ng how t he st r at egi c i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an

l i es i n t he vast r ewards avai l abl e to whomever can mast er

t he regi on, and danger s i nvol ved dependi ng on t he l engt hs

t hat count r i es wi l l go t o i n or der t o secur e t hese r i ches.


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II. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF HUMAN AND NATURALTERRAIN

Under t he agr eement , Paki st an r ecogni zes Kal at as

an i ndependent sover ei gn st ate wi t h a st atusdi f f er ent f r om t hat of t he I ndi an state. Anannouncement f r om New Del hi sai d t hat Kal at , aMusl i m st at e i n Bal ochi st an, has r eached anagr eement wi t h Paki st an f or f r ee f l ow ofCommuni cat i ons and Commer ce and woul d negot i at ef or deci si on on Def ense For ei gn Af f ai r s andCommuni cat i ons. 27

A. INTRODUCTION

The st r at egi c i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an l i es i n i t s

combi nat i on of l ocat i on, r esour ces and t he peopl e. I n

addi t i on, t hese f act or s ar e not mut ual l y excl usi ve.

I nst ead, t he way t hese f act or s r el at e t o each ot her causes

t hem t o become of st r at egi c i mpor t ance when taken as a

col l ect i ve. I n t hi s chapt er , t he f ocus i s on t he geogr aphi c

aspect of t hi s t r i ad. Her e, I i l l ust r at e how t he nat ur al

t er r ai n pl aces Bal ochi st an at t he cr ossr oads of ani ncr easi ngl y i mpor t ant t r ade i nt er sect i on bet ween t he

Mi ddl e East , Cent r al Asi a and Sout h Asi a. By l ooki ng at

t he physi cal t er r ai n i n conj unct i on wi t h t he human t er r ai n,

Chapt er I I wi l l demonst r ate how t hey conver ge i n a way t hat

sets t he f r amewor k f or t he cur r ent st r uggl es, and mor e

i mpor t ant l y, t he pot ent i al f or i nt ense escal at i on of

vi ol ence i n Bal ochi st an.

27 Waseem Al t af , "Accessi on at gunpoi nt , Viewpoint, Apr i l 8, 2011,ht t p: / / www. vi ewpoi nt onl i ne. net / accessi on- at - gunpoi nt . ht ml .


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B. THE CROSSROADS OF COMMERCE

Accordi ng t o t he CI A Wor l d Factbook est i mates, 28 t her e

ar e appr oxi mat el y 187 mi l l i on peopl e i n Paki st an, wi t h t he

Bal och account i ng f or 3. 5% ( ~6. 7 mi l l i on) of t he

popul at i on, l i vi ng i n a pr ovi nce t hat composes roughl y 44%

of t he nat i on. The shaded ar ea of Fi gur e 1 di spl ays t he

r egi on r ef er r ed t o by t he Bal och as Gr eat er Bal ochi st an, as

i t encompasses t he Bal och l i vi ng i n Paki st an, I r an and

Af ghani st an. Hi st or i cal or al t r adi t i on al ong wi t h

ar cheol ogi cal suppor t st at es t hat t hi s i s one of t he ol dest

set t l ement s i n t he wor l d. 29 Al t hough i t i s ar guabl e t hat

t he peopl e t hat l i ved i n t he area 15, 000 year s are t he

di r ect ancest or s of t he cur r ent popul at i on, 30 t hi s rhet or i c

i s used t o r al l y suppor t f or t he cont i nued asser t i on f or

gr eat er aut onomy f r om t he cent r al Paki st an gover nment .

Quot es such as t he Bal och who are i nherent l y l ovi ng and

peacef ul peopl e, have been f or ced t o f i ght back f or t hei r

exi st ence and nat i onal i dent i t y t hr oughout cent ur i es 31

exempl i f y t hi s r het or i c by dr awi ng upon the passi ons andpr i de of ancest r al st r uggl es.

Wi t h at l east si x ar med i nsur genci es i n Paki st an and

one i n I r an al ong wi t h t he cont i nued suppor t of t he Af ghani

Bal och, t he i dea of Gr eat er Bal ochi st an t r anscends nat i onal

pol i t i cs and exempl i f i es t he porous nat ur e of manmade

28 Cent r al I nt el l i gence Agency, "Sout h Asi a: : Paki st an, The World

Factbook, Mar ch 8, 2011, ht t ps: / / www. ci a. gov/ l i br ar y/ publ i cat i ons/ t he-wor l d- f act book/ geos/ pk. ht ml .

29 Sar baz, "Hi st or y of Bal ochi st an, Balochwarna, 2009,ht t p: / / www. bal ochwarna. com/ modul es/ mast op_publ i sh/ ?t ac=More_On_Bal och.

30 Bal ochwarna, "More on Bal och Hi st ory, Balochwarna, 2009,ht t p: / / www. bal ochwarna. com/ modul es/ mast op_publ i sh/ ?t ac=More_On_Bal och.

31 I bi d.


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bor der s. I n much t he same way as t he Korean Conf l i ct and

t he Vi et nam War showed t he f ut i l i t y of i nser t i ng f or ei gn

obj ect i ves ont o r evol ut i onary or i ndependence movement s,

t he cur r ent i deol ogy of gl obal i zat i on, wher eby t r ade and

t he pur sui t of weal t h t r anscends l ocal pol i t i cs, has t he

pot ent i al f or si mi l ar out comes.

Fi gur e 1: Map of Gr eat er Bal ochi st anWi t h I nset of Gwadar Por t . 32

32 Zaman, Ar shad. "New Gr eat er Bal ochi st an Map. "I mage. May28, 2009,ht t p: / / www. t heat l ant i c. com/ past / docs/ i mages/ i ssues/ 200905/ paki st an- map. j pg.


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C. HUMAN TERRAIN

Human ter r ai n def i ned i n mi l i t ar y t er ms i nvol ves

pr oper syst emi c i dent i f i cat i on, f r ami ng, and bal ance of t he

act ual human t er r ai n' s soci al , pol i t i cal , or economi c

pr obl ems i n t he par t i cul ar ar ea of i nt er est i n di r ect

cor r el at i on t o goal out comes. 33 I t i s a way i n whi ch

anal yst s ar e abl e t o st udy the human aspect s of a r egi on t o

determi ne t hei r r ol e and i mpor t ance and how var i ous

soci et i es, wi t h t hei r uni que cust oms and pr act i ces wi l l

r eact t o out si de st i mul i . I n t hi s way, pol i t i cal and

mi l i t ar y aut hor i t i es can bet t er f or mul at e appr oaches t o

i nt er act wi t h t he l ocal popul at i on i n a way t hat i s

conduci ve and i deal l y i nvol ves a l evel of wi n- wi n f or al l

par t i ci pant s. I n t hi s case, t he subj ect popul at i on i s

pr i mar i l y t hat of t he Bal och who have occupi ed t he area now

r ef er r ed t o as Bal ochi st an f or much, i f not al l , of

r ecor ded hi st or y. Al so of si gni f i cance i s t hat t he Bal och

do not l i mi t t hei r r egi on t o t he bor der s cont ai ned wi t hi n

Paki st an, but i nst ead t hey see al l of t hei r ancest r al l and

ext endi ng i nto modern- day sout hern Af ghani st an and

sout heast er n I r an as par t of t hei r cul t ur al and pol i t i cal

her i t age. Thi s asser t i on has l ed t o cont ent i on wi t h t he

af or ement i oned gover nment s, and whi l e t hi s i s i mpor t ant ,

f al l s out si de of t he scope of t hi s t hesi s.

33 I r r egul ar War f ar e Cent r e, "Unconvent i onal Sol ut i ons f or I r r egul arConf l i ct , The Irregular Warfare Centre, 2009,ht t p: / / www. i r r egul ar war f ar e. or g/ .


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1. The Baloch

The t r i be i s a sel f - cont ai ned wor l d. At i t scent r e i s t he Sar dar or chi ef of t he t r i be.Tal l , f ul l - bearded, i n f l owi ng cl ot hes and heavyt ur ban, t he Sar dar i s not unl i ke Sean Conner ypl ayi ng a t r i bal chi ef . He symbol i zes Bal ochcustom and t r i bal t r adi t i on. Honor , hospi t al i t y,and br aver y ar e di spl ayed i n hi s behavi or . Thet r i be r evel s i n hi s gl or y. The wor d of t heSar dar i s l aw, hi s aut hor i t y t ot al . I n an ar eat hr eat ened by nat ur e and, of t en, i nvadi ng t r i besuni t y under t he Sar dar became the key t osur vi val . The Bal och have a sayi ng, t he Bal ochwi l l swear on t he Hol y Qur an but never on t hehead of t he Sardar . 34

The Bal och ar e a t r i bal soci et y and ar e the maj or i t y

et hni c i nhabi t ant s of t he r egi on of Bal ochi st an i n t he

sout heast cor ner of t he I r ani an pl at eau i n Sout hwest Asi a,

i ncl udi ng par t s of I r an, Af ghani st an, Oman and Paki st an. 35

Each t r i be i s headed by a Sardar who hol ds absol ut e power

over hi s t r i be and sub- t r i bes. Such l ocal f or m of

pol i t i cal or gani zat i on has exi st ed f or hundr eds of year s,

and as common wi t h t r i bal soci et i es, t her e i s i nt ense

i nt er - t r i bal r i val r y and f eudi ng. 36 I n spi t e of t hi s

i nf i ght i ng, i t never r eached t he scal e t hat woul d change or

abol i sh t he syst em or f r act ur e t he soci et y as a whol e. As

wi t h many of t he t r i bes i n t hi s r egi on, t he basi c

phi l osophy of hospi t al i t y, f ami l y and r evenge exi st , wi t h

34 Akbar S Ahmed, Pakistan Society: Islam, Ethnicity and Leadershipin South Asia ( Kar achi : Oxf or d Uni ver si t y Pr ess, 1986) , 188.

35 Mi r Ahmad Bal och, "Bal och Hi st ory, Jimdo, 2010,ht t p: / / shohaz. j i mdo. com/ bal och- hi st or y/ .

36 J ohn Pi ke, "Bal uchi st an Tr i bal System, Global Security, March 7,2009, ht t p: / / www. gl obal secur i t y. or g/ mi l i t ar y/ wor l d/ paki st an/ bal och-t r i bes. ht m.


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i nt ense l oyal t y t o t he Sar dar . 37 Thi s f i nal not e i s

poi gnant f or t he Paki st ani gover nment i n t hat i t i s t he

Sar dar s who ar e at t he hel m of r esi st ance, conver sel y, al so

t hr ough t he Sardars l ays t he r oad t o compr omi se. 38

Thi s t hesi s l eads of f wi t h t he human t er r ai n because

i t i s an under l yi ng f oundat i on of a syst em t hat i s

i mpor t ant f or ever y chapt er and subchapt er of t hi s t hesi s.

As t he Bal och mai nt ai n t hei r cl ai ms of aut onomy and

vi gor ousl y f i ght f or t he at t ai nment of t hi s goal ,

advancement and devel opment ar e r et arded i n t he r egi on.

Wi t h over whel mi ng odds agai nst t hem, t hi s appear s t o be a

cl assi c case of cut t i ng of f t hei r nose t o spi t e t hei r

f ace ment al i t y si nce t he Paki st ani gover nment i s unl i kel y

t o gr ant f ul l aut onomy and i n t he f ace of i nsur gency.

Equal l y unl i kel y i s t hat t he gover nment wi l l pur sue gr owt h

and devel opment i n t he pr ovi nce as i t woul d pr ovi de

f i nanci al suppor t t o t he r ebel s whi l e al so pr ovi di ng

i ncreased t ar get s f or at t ack. Wi t h i ncreasi ng i nt er est i n

t he r egi on by t he i nt er nat i onal communi t y and advanci ngmethods of spr eadi ng t hei r message, t he Bal och are more

det er mi ned t han ever t o mai nt ai n t hei r cul t ur e and achi eve

aut onomy t hrough more dr ast i c measur es and i n a hi ghl y

var i ed manner . 39

37 Dr . Nasi r Dast hi , "A Br i ef Hi st or y of Bal ochi st an, " BalochHomeland, J une 15, 2009, ht t p: / / www. bal ochhomel and. com/ homel and-ar t i cl e2. ht m.

38 Dast hi , A Br i ef Hi st or y of Bal ochi st an. 39 Char l es Ti l l y, Social Movements, 1768-2004,( Boul der : Paradi gm

Publ i sher s, 2004) , 54. Soci al Movement Theor y cont ends t hat peopl emobi l i ze t hr ough cl ai ms of i dent i t y, pol i t i cal st andi ng, and goal s.Cent r al t o t hi s t heme i s t he chari smat i c l eader who can or gani ze andmobi l i ze. Test ament t o t he st r engt h of t he cause i s i ndi cated t hr oughcont i nued suppor t f ol l owi ng the passi ng of cont r ol of t he gr oup to anew l eader.


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D. PHYSICAL TERRAIN

The l and of Bal ochi st an i s exceedi ngl yi nhospi t abl e; geol ogi st s have even compared t hel andscape wi t h Mars. A Pakht u expr essi on,r ef l ect i ng on et hni c r el at i ons as wel l as ongeogr aphy, descr i bes Bal ochi st an as t he dumpwher e Al l ah shot t he r ubbi sh of cr eat i on. 40

The pr i mar y r eason f or t he i ncr easi ng i nt er est i n

Bal ochi st an l i es i n i t s geogr aphi cal l ocat i on. Br acket ed

on t he east and west by hi gh r ugged mountai n ranges ( t he

Zagr os i n I r an and t he Toba Kakar i n Paki st an/ Af ghani st an) ,

Bal ochi st an i s canal i zed and ser ves as t he easi est l and

r out e t o west er n Af ghani st an and t he r i ch ener gy r eserves

and emer gi ng mar ket s of Cent r al Asi a. As a f l at pl ai n,

Bal ochi st an has l onged ser ved as t he i deal cr ossr oads f or

mer chant s and mi l i t ar i es f or cent ur i es t r avel l i ng bet ween

t he Mi ddl e East and Sout h Asi a.

I n addi t i on t o i t s advant ages f or over l and t r avel , t he

bl ue- wat er access at Gwadar has been of hi st or i cal

i nt er est , pr i mar i l y by t he Sovi et s/ Russi ans. So much was

t hi s t he case, t hat t he Br i t i sh ensur ed t he l oyal t i es of

t he Bal och dur i ng the 1860s and 1870s, as not onl y buf f er

agai nst expandi ng Per si an i nf l uence, but al so t o st op t he

expandi ng Russi an Empi r e f r om r eachi ng the I ndi an Ocean,

t hus t hr eateni ng t he Br i t i sh commer ci al domi nance i n t he

r egi on. 41 More r ecent l y, t he Sovi et s agai n made a bi d f or

t hi s r egi on when t hey cour t ed t he Bal och dur i ng t he

40 Punj abi cs, "Bal och Ri ght s or Sar dar s Ri ght s?, Punjabics, 2010,ht t p: / / www. punj abi cs. com/ Punj abi csBal ochi st anFor um/ Bal och_Ri ght s_Or _Sardar s_Ri ght s. ht ml .

41 Mehr ab Sar j ou, "The demands f or i ndependent Bal uchi st an no l ongercan be i gnored, Balochwarna, May 4, 2011,ht t p: / / www. bal ochwar na. com/ modul es/ ar t i cl es/ ar t i cl e. php?i d=2216.


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Sovi et / Af ghani st an War i l l ust r at i ng t he ongoi ng i mpor t ance

of t hi s crossr oads r egi on. 42 Wi t h t he quagmi r e t hat t he war

became f or t he Sovi et s, t hi s r el at i onshi p never f ul l y

devel oped, but i t i nt er est i ng t o ponder what t he r egi on

mi ght l ook l i ke t oday i f t he Sovi et s had been successf ul i n

expandi ng i nt o Af ghani st an and t hen i nt o Bal ochi st an.

Due t o al l of t he advant ages of t he physi cal geogr aphy

of Bal ochi st an, a number of pr oj ect s have been i ni t i at ed or

pl anned by var i ous nat i onal and ext r a- nat i onal act or s.

These i ncl ude hi gh- speed r oad networ ks, r ai l r oads and

pi pel i ne t hat wi l l make t he t r ansi t of goods and ser vi ces

t hr oughout t he r egi on more ef f i ci ent and cheaper . On one

hand, t hi s coul d be a boon f or t he Bal och as mi l l i ons of

dol l ar s i n i nf r ast r uct ur e and devel opment ar e of f er ed up by

mul t i - nat i onal or gani zat i on and sur r oundi ng count r i es.

I nst ead, t hi s compet i t i on i s mor e l i kel y t o i nt ensi f y

concer ns and conf l i ct as t he Bal och f ace i ncr easi ng

pr essur es f r om t he Paki st ani gover nment t o head of f t he

l oss of t hese r evenues. Wi t h I r an, t he Cent r al Asi ancount r i es, Russi a, I ndi a and Chi na al l l ooki ng t o make

i nr oads and pr of i t f r om t hese pr oj ect s, t he del i cat e

bal ance of power of Sout h Asi a i s t hr eatened by the Bal och.

1. Pipelines

The pr i mar y r eason t hat Bal ochi st an has gai ned

i nt er nat i onal at t ent i on i s because of t he vast nat ur al gas

f i el ds di scover ed t her e i n 1952. 43 Al t hough cont r ol of t he

nat ur al gas f i el d st ar t ed i mmedi at el y, i t i s due t o t he

42 Har r i son, In Afghanistan's Shadow, 43- 44.

43 Punj abi cs, Bal och Ri ght s or Sar dar s Ri ght s?


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vast gr owt h i n i ndust r y and moder ni zat i on i n Sout h Asi a and

associ ated i ncr ease i n ener gy demand t hat l ed t o l arge-

scal e pi pel i ne pr oj ect s. 44 As Fi gur e 2 depi ct s, t her e ar e

t wo maj or pr oposed pi pel i nes wi t h mul t i pl e sponsors wi t hi n

t he r egi on, al ong wi t h t he Chi nese, t hat wi l l t r ansi t

Bal ochi st an car r yi ng nat ur al gas f r om I r an t o I ndi a and

Turkmeni st an t o Paki st an, wi t h bot h pi pel i nes st oppi ng at

Gwadar Por t . As pr evi ousl y di scussed, t her e ar e al so

si gni f i cant gas r eser ves i n Bal ochi st an t hat ar e supposed

t o be pumped i nt o t hi s pi pel i ne l ar gel y f or consumpt i on i n

east er n Paki st an or i nt er nat i onal l y.

A 2005 st udy i l l ust r at i ng t he i mpor t ance of t hese

pi pel i nes i n t he regi on shows t hat I ndi a s mar ket f or

nat ur al gas i s est i mat ed t o be 105 Mi l l i on St andar d Cubi c

Meters per Day ( MSCMPD) , yet i t s own nat ur al r esour ces can

onl y pr ovi de r oughl y 65 MSCMPD. Fur t hermore, t he st udy

est i mates t hat by 2020, I ndi a s demand wi l l cl i mb t o 400

MSCMPD, of whi ch 100 t o 150 can be provi ded domest i cal l y. 45

I n addi t i on t o t he obvi ous ener gy i ssues, I r an i s keenl yi nt er est ed i n i ncreased r el at i ons wi t h I ndi a as a way t o

i ncrease pol i t i cal suppor t f r om I ndi a, and t hr ough t hem,

i mpr oved gl obal st andi ng. 46 As an added advant age, cheaper

gas and a f r i endl y I r an wi l l gr eat l y i ncrease I ndi a s

44 Gal Luf t , "I r an- Paki st an- I ndi a Pi pel i ne: The Bal och Wi l dcar d, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, J anuar y 12, 2005,ht t p: / / www. i ags. org/ n0115042. ht m.

45 Har i Sud, "Paki st an as Network Headquar t er f or Natur al Gas Suppl yt o I ndi a, South Asia Analysis Group, Apr i l 3, 2005,ht t p: / / www. southasi aanal ysi s. org/ %5Cpaper s13%5Cpaper 1277. html .

46 Luf t , I ran- Paki stan- I ndi a Pi pel i ne.


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domi nance i n Sout h Asi a, swi ngi ng t he bal ance of power wi t h

Paki st an even mor e i n i t s f avor . 47

Wi t h agr eement s f r om I ndi a wi t h I r an and Tur kmeni st an

f or pi pel i nes t o f i l l t hi s gap, a stabl e Bal ochi stan i s

r equi r ed, a st abi l i t y t hat i s yet t o be r esol ved as

evi denced by t he const ant at t acks agai nst t he pi pel i nes and

const r uct i on cr ews. 48 Wi t h t he cur r ent i nst abi l i t y i n

Bal ochi st an, count r i es such as I ndi a ar e bei ng f or ced t o

consi der al t er nat e t r anspor t at i on of nat ur al gas vi a

mar i t i me shi ppi ng t hat wi l l cost mor e and wi t h l ess

ef f i ci ency, but mor e r el i abi l i t y. 49 Thi s opt i on al so t i es

i nt o I ndi aI r an cooper at i on i n t he Chabahar Por t pr oj ect as

wel l as t he M- 6 r oad pr oj ect di scussed l at er i n t hi s

chapt er . Wi t h nat ur al gas r equi r ement s est i mat ed t o

i ncrease f or t he ent i r e r egi on as gl obal i zat i on expands

i nt o t he new mar ket s of Cent r al Asi a and t he sur r oundi ng

r egi on, al ong wi t h t he i mpor t ance of gai ni ng access t o

t hese mar ket s, I ndi a serves a cl ear exampl e of pi pel i ne

i mport ance.


48 Or dons News Team, "Thr ee mor e gas pi pel i nes bl own up i nBal ochi st an" Ordons News, Febr uary 13, 2011,ht t p: / / www. ordons. com/ asi a/ sout heast - asi a/ 10200- t hr ee- more- gas-pi pel i nes- bl own- up- i n- bal ochi st an. ht ml .



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Fi gur e 2: Pr oposed and Exi st i ng Nat ur al Gas Pi pel i nes i nSout h Asi a. 50

2. Road Networks

The l ack of i nf r ast r uct ur e i n Bal ochi st an ext ends t o

t he r oad net wor k as wel l . I n or der t o f ul l y capi t al i ze on

t he t r anspor t of goods and servi ces t o nei ghbor i ng mar ket s,

adequate r oad and r ai l net works need t o be i n pl ace. To

addr ess t hi s i ssue, Paki st an has embarked on a number of

pr oj ects t o t r ansf or m l ar gel y r ur al , di r t r oads i nt o moder n

50 Pakal ert , Destabalizing Baluchistan, Fracturing Pakistan.November 5, 2009,ht t p: / / pakal er t . wor dpr ess. com/ 2009/ 11/ 05/ dest abi l i zi ng- bal uchi st an-f ract ur i ng- paki stan/ .


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t hor oughf ar es capabl e of hi gh- speed t r anspor t of goods. 51

Fi gur e 3 pr ovi des a gr aphi c of exi st i ng and pl ans maj or

r oad pr oj ect s, hi ghl i ght i ng t he cur r ent def i ci enci es i n

connect i ng Gwadar wi t h t he ot her maj or ur ban cent ers of

Paki st an. The cont i nued Bal och per cept i ons of

margi nal i zat i on as the cent r al gover nment pur sues i t s own

i nt er est s cont r i but e t he f r ust r at i on and cont i nued

i nsur gency. Al so i mpor t ant i s t he i ssue of i nt er nat i onal

bor der cr ossi ng poi nt s and t he measur es t hat ar e requi r ed

f or t he ef f ect i ve cont r ol of cr oss- bor der t r af f i c. 52

Fi gur e 3 al so br i ngs up t wo more i t ems of concern

r el at i ng t o Bal ochi st an. Fi r st i s t he I r ani an const r ucti on

of a wal l al ong t he I r anPaki st an bor der f r om Taf t an ( near

t he Af ghani st an border ) t o Mand ( about 100 Km nort h of

Gwadar ) . Al t hough bui l t on t he pr emi se of i nhi bi t i ng

i l l egal bor der cr ossi ng and dr ug smuggl i ng, t he Bal och ar e

concer ned about i t s ef f ect on t r i bal / f ami l y ti es, much l i ke

t he spl i t t i ng of f ami l i es t hat occur r ed wi t h t he

const r uct i on of t he Ber l i n Wal l and t he di vi de bet weenNor t h and Sout h Korea. 53 Wi t h a l ack of pol i t i cal voi ce,

t hi s wal l has cr eat ed r enewed waves of I r ani an Bal och

51 Asi an Devel opment Bank, "Bal ochi st an Road Devel opment Sect or

Proj ect: Paki stan, Asian Development Bank,

2008,ht t p: / / pi d. adb. org/ pi d/ LoanVi ew. htm?pr oj No=34333&seqNo=01&t ypeCd=3.

52 Marshuk Al i Shah, "2nd Eur o- Asi an Road Tr anspor t Conf erence, International Road Transport Union, Oct ober 7, 2003,ht t p: / / www. i r u. org/ en_event s_2003_t ehr an_marshuk_al i _shah.

53 PTI "I r an er ect i ng wal l al ong t he border wi t h Paki st an, OutlookIndia.com, March 2, 2007,ht t p: / / news. out l ooki ndi a. com/ i t em. aspx?455022.


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i nsurgency t o oppose t he const r uct i on, maki ng t he Bal och

pr obl em a mul t i - nat i onal concer n and f ur t her dest abi l i zi ng

t he r egi on. 54

The second concer n i s t he di st i nct l ack of any r oad

net wor ks connect i ng Bal ochi st an and Af ghani st an. Thi s has

a t wo- f ol d ef f ect si nce i t i s an al r eady por ous bor der and

i s st i l l l ar gel y uncont r ol l ed whi ch makes i t easi er t o

t r anspor t i l l i ci t goods ( dr ugs, peopl e and weapons) , as

wel l as pr event i ng easy access f or goods between

Af ghani st an, Cent r al Asi a and Russi a and Gwadar Por t . I f

l and t r anspor t at i on must r el y on movement t o Quet t a and

t hen sout h t o Gwadar or Kar achi , t he i ncr ease i n di st ance

and t i me makes t hi s si t uat i on l ess f avor abl e and t her ef or e,

makes Chabahar Por t a more r easonabl e opt i on. I n t hi s

vei n, r ecent di scussi ons among I sl amabad, Kabul and Tehr an

have l ed t o a pr oposed agr eement f or t he const r uct i on of a

r oad l i nki ng Gwadar t o Sai ndak ( near t he I r an and

Af ghani st an bor der conf l uence) t o al l evi at e t hi s pr obl em,

but act ual const r uct i on has yet t o begi n.55

I f thi s road i sconst r uct ed, t he Bal och wi l l l ose any of t he bar gai ni ng

power t hey may have, as wel l as i nvi t e a harsh backl ash

f r om t he cent r al gover nment i n r et r i but i on f or t hei r

per cei ved l osses. I n t hei r mul t i f acet ed campai gn, t he

Bal och ar e at t acki ng r oad const r uct i on cr ews t o det er i t s

compl et i on. The i ssue i s made more pr obl emat i c i n t hat

54 Chr i s Zambel i s, "I nsur r ect i on i n I r ani an Bal ochi st an, TheJamestown Foundation, J anuary 11, 2008,ht t p: / / j amest own. or g/ t er r ori sm/ news/ art i cl e. php?art i cl ei d=2373892%20.

55 Syed Fazl - e- Hai der , "Bal ochi st an: Chal l enges and Oppor t unt i es, Experts Meeting on Afghanistan and Regional Stabilisation, ( Rome:Carnegi e Endowment f or I nt ernat i onal Peace, 2009, 1- 17) , 12.


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many on t he r oad cr ews are f or ei gn nat i onal s, br i ngi ng i nt o

l i ght t he pot ent i al f or f or ei gn i nt er vent i on, whi ch wi l l be

di scussed i n Chapt er I V. 56

Fi gur e 3: Exi st i ng and Pr oposed Road Net work i nBal ochi st an. 57

56 B. Raman, "Bal och Fr eedomFi ght er s At t ack Nucl ear Est abl i shment , South Asia Analysis Group, May 17, 2006,ht t p: / / www. sout hasi aanal ysi s. org/ %5Cpapers19%5Cpaper1801. ht ml .

57 Marshuk Al i Shah, 2nd Eur o- Asi an Road Tr anspor t Conf erence.


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3. Rail Networks

Accor di ng t o the Fi gur e 4, t he pr omi sed r ai l way

connect i ng Gwadar wi t h Chi na has yet t o be compl et ed by t he

pr oj ect ed 2007 dat e. 58 A r ecent meet i ng bet ween Chi na and

Paki st an r eaf f i r med mut ual desi r e f or t he compl et i on of

sai d r ai l net wor k. 59 However , aki n t o si mi l ar i nf r ast r uct ur e

devel opment pr oj ect s i n Bal ochi st an, t he l ocal popul at i on

cont i nues t o hamper ef f or t s agai nst t hese pr oj ect s by

bl owi ng up t r ai ns and sect i ons of t r ack, and by har assi ng

const r uct i on cr ews. 60 Fi gur e 4 f ur t her r ei nf or ces t he

l i mi t i ng commer ce r out es f r om nei ghbor i ng count r i es and

f r om Quet t a, t he pr ovi nci al capi t al . I t i s easi er t o

t r anspor t goods t o Kar achi t han t o Gwadar , f ur t her

cont r i but i ng t o t he sl ow economy of t he r egi on and t he l ack

of weal t h and j obs t o t he vast maj or i t y of Bal och. As wi t h

al l of t he ot her l and t r anspor t at i on i ssues, t he need f or

saf e and ef f i ci ent access f r om Gwadar Por t t o the myr i ad of

mar ket s i n t he regi on i s par amount t o t he si gni f i cance of

Bal ochi st an.

58 Dai l y Bal ochi st an Expr ess, "Rai l r oad syst em wi l l be r eady i nt hr ee years t i me, says Gover nor, Gwadar News, Febr uary 17, 2004,ht t p: / / www. gwadarnews. com/ newsdetai l . asp?newsI D=48.

59 Khur r um Ani s and J ames Rupert , "Wen Vi si t s Paki st an t o Revi veRoad- Rai l Net wor k f r omChi na to Per si an Gul f , Bloomberg, December 17,2010, ht t p: / / www. bl oomber g. com/ news/ 2010- 12- 16/ wen- vi si t s- paki st an- t o-r evi ve- r oad- r ai l - net wor k- f r omchi na- t o- per si an- gul f . ht ml .

60 Huma Aami r Mal i k, "Bal ochi st an Rai l way Tr ack Bl own Up 3r d Ti me i na Week, Arab News, J anuary 28, 2005,ht t p: / / ar chi ve. arabnews. com/ ?page=4&sect i on=0&ar t i cl e=58155&d=28&m=1&y=2005.


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Fi gur e 4: Cur r ent Rai l way Net wor k of Bal ochi st an. 61

61 Chr i s Al l br i t t on, World Affairs Board, December 13, 2010,ht t p: / / www. wor l daf f ai r sboar d. com/ i nt er nat i onal - pol i t i cs/ 57363- paki st an-chi na- t i es- st r engt hened- wen- vi si t . ht ml .


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E. CONCLUSION

Chapt er I I i l l ust r at es t he i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an

as i t r el at es t o pl anned or exi st i ng r oad, r ai l and

pi pel i ne net wor ks. At t hi s poi nt , i t i s cl ear t hat t he

l ocat i on of Bal ochi st an i s i deal l y sui t ed f or devel opment

and moder ni zat i on. Wi t h a number of i nt er est s f r om

nei ghbor i ng count r i es i n bot h t he r esour ces avai l abl e as

wel l as t he abi l i t y t o qui ckl y and cheapl y t r ansf er t hese

r esour ces, t her e i s no shor t age of i nvest ment oppor t uni t y

f or t he Bal och. As Cent r al Asi a, t he Mi ddl e East and Sout h

Asi a cont i nue t o devel op economi cal l y, t her e wi l l be a

par al l el i nt er est i n get t i ng t hei r goods t o gl obal mar ket s

as wel l and access f r om f or ei gn i nvest or s t o t hese

pr oduct i on cent er s. Fi nal l y, as t hese count r i es expand,

t he need f or exponent i al i ncr eases i n ener gy wi l l f ol l ow

al ong wi t h t he need f or cheap and ef f i ci ent access t o

gl obal mar ket s f or t he sal e of sur pl us ener gy, al l of whi ch

i ndi cat e t he st r at egi c i mpor t ance of Bal ochi st an i n r egar ds

t o i nt ernat i onal commerce and economi cs.

Chapt er I I al so exposes t he i mpor t ance of t he human

t er r ai n as t he Bal och r ebel agai nst uni nvi t ed out si de

i nt er vent i on. As more count r i es and organi zat i ons become

i nvol ved i n Bal ochi st an, t her e i s a par al l el i ncrease i n

t he danger t hat t hese pr oj ect s coul d l ead t o an

i nt er nat i onal i nci dent as t he Bal och cont i nue t o t ar get

wor ker s and pr oj ect s, r egar dl ess of count r y of or i gi n.

Wi t h bi l l i ons of dol l ar s and gover nment r eput at i ons on t he

l i ne, i t st ands t o r eason t hat i ncreasi ng pr essur es wi l l be

pl aced on t he Paki st ani gover nment t o r emedy t he si t uat i on,

or f ace t he l oss of r evenue and st at us on t he wor l d st age.


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Wi t h Paki st an s hi st or y of har sh t r eat ment of t he Bal och

dur i ng past i nsur genci es, i t st ands t o r eason t hat i t i s

onl y a mat t er of t i me bef or e l ar ge- scal e r eper cussi ons are

empl aced by t he Paki st ani mi l i t ar y, f ur t her devol vi ng t he

Bal och.


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III. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF RESOURCES

A. INTRODUCTION

Chapt er I I I wi l l expl or e t he i mpor t ance of t heabundance of nat ur al r esour ces t hat exi st i n Bal ochi st an.

As pr evi ousl y ment i oned, t he thr ee f act or s of peopl e,

t er r ai n and r esour ces i n Bal ochi st an ar e i nt r i nsi cal l y

l i nked. Chapt er I I pr ovi ded an over vi ew of t he t er r ai n and

i t s i mport ance t o t r ade and economi cs. The cul mi nat i ng

aspect s t o t he unt ol d pot ent i al f or t hi s r egi on l i es i n t he

vast amount of val uabl e nat ur al r esour ces coupl ed wi t h the

i mpor t ance of sui t abl e deep- wat er por t access t o t he gl obal

mar ket . The Gwadar Por t pr oj ect i s i ncl uded i n t hi s

chapt er because t he i mpet us f or t he const r uct i on of Gwadar

i s due t o t he ext r act i on of r esour ces. Chapt er I I I

hi ghl i ght s t hi s connect i on and t he si gni f i cance of t he f act

t hat i t i s not a Paki st ani l ed pr oj ect. I nst ead, t he

Gwadar Por t pr oj ect i s f ul l y f i nanced and suppor t ed by the

Peopl e s Republ i c of Chi na ( PRC) as a means f or export i ngnat ur al gas f r om t he vast r eser ves f ound 1952. Thi s

i mpor t ant f act or hel ps expl ai n t he l evel and dur at i on of

i nsur gency by t he Bal och di scussed i n Chapt er I V.

B. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF GWADAR PORT TO PAKISTANI

ECONOMICS

Accor di ng t o Robert Looney, t he Paki st ani economy has

l ong suf f er ed f r om under devel opment and a l ack of act i vepar t i ci pat i on i n t he gl obal mar ket . 62 The cur r ent pr oj ect

of t he Gwadar por t f aci l i t y i n t he sout hwest er n pr ovi nce of

62 Robert E. Looney, "Paki st an' s Pr ogr ess Toward Economi c Fr eedom, Contemporary South Asia, J une 1, 1997: 79- 98.


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Saudi Ar abi a. 65 Count r i es such as Kyrgyzst an, Kazakhst an,

Uzbeki st an and Tur kmeni st an possess t hese r eserves but are

l andl ocked and have l i mi t ed access t o f or ei gn mar ket s.

Fur t her , t hey ar e st i l l suf f er i ng t he ef f ect s of t hei r

i ncl usi on i n t he f ormer Sovi et economy t hat never devel oped

an ef f i ci ent expor t i nf r ast r uct ur e f or t hei r ener gy

r esour ces, i nst ead f ocusi ng on domest i c consumpt i on. 66 The

December 2002 agr eement bet ween t he government s of

Turkmeni st an, Af ghani st an, and Paki st an t o const r uct a

pi pel i ne t hat woul d car r y oi l f r om Tur kmeni st an and

Uzbeki st an t o Gwadar pr ovi des an exampl e of Cent r al Asi an

i ni t i at i ves, hi ghl i ght i ng t he i mpor t ance of Gwadar Por t .67

Gazpr om and a f ew other Russi an compani es have,

t hr ough i nf r ast r uct ur al i nvest ment al ong wi t h pol i t i cal and

economi c deal s, devel oped a vi r t ual monopol y on t he

pur chase, t r anspor t at i on and sal e of Cent r al Asi an nat ur al

gas and oi l t o out si de mar ket s. 68 These Russi an compani es

expl oi t t hei r posi t i on t hr ough pr act i ces such as buyi ng

Cent r al Asi an gas at one- quar t er t o one- t hi r d of mar ket

pr i ces i n Eur ope and t hen r esel l [ i ng] [ t hat ] gas at mar ket

r at es. 69 These pr act i ces have cr eat ed st r ong i ncent i ves i n

Eur ope t o bypass Russi an i nt ermedi ar i es by bui l di ng new

pi pel i nes t hat woul d t r anspor t Cent r al Asi an oi l and gas t o

t he wor l d mar ket as depi ct ed i n Fi gur e 5. These pi pel i nes

woul d al l ow f or t he compet i t i ve sal e of t hese r esour ces on

65 Cohen, U. S. I nt er est s and Cent r al Asi a Ener gy Secur i t y.

66 Ri chard Wei t z, "Aver t i ng a new gr eat game i n cent r al Asi a, TheWashington Quarterly 29, No. 3, 2006, 155- 167.


68 I bi d.

69 I bi d.


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t he wor l d mar ket , gr eat l y benef i t i ng t he pr oducer s as wel l

as t hose count r i es t hr ough whi ch t he pi pel i nes woul d r un,

due t o t he subst ant i al t r ansi t f ees t hey woul d col l ect . 70, 71

The cor r espondi ng i ncr ease i n t he pr i ce of Cent r al Asi an

hydr ocar bons woul d dr i ve addi t i onal FDI i n t he

expl or at i on, devel opment , ext r act i on, and pr oduct i on of

t hese as yet l ar gel y unt apped reserves. 72

Fi gur e 5: Cur r ent and Pr oposed Gas and Oi l Pi pel i nes Fr omCent r al Asi a. 73

70 Zi ad Hai der , Bal ochi s, Bei j i ng, and Paki st an' s Gwadar Por t , Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 2005, 95- 112, 95.

71 Rober t D. Kapl an, Cent er St age f or t he Twent y- f i r st Cent ur y, Real Clear Politics,

March/ Apr i l 2009,ht t p: / / www. r eal cl ear pol i t i cs. com/ ar t i cl es/ 2009/ 03/ r i val r y_i n_t he_i ndi an_ocean. ht ml .


73 Lest er W. Gr au, "Hydr ocarbons and a New Str at egi c Regi on: TheCaspi an Sea and Cent r al Asi a, Gobal Security, May/ J une 2001,ht t p: / / www. gl obal secur i t y. or g/ mi l i t ar y/ l i br ar y/ r epor t / 2001/ hydr ocar bons. ht m.


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Thi s si t uat i on has l ed t o i nt ense compet i t i on among

r egi onal count r i es t hat possess easy access t o wor l d

mar ket s t hr ough t hei r deep- wat er por t s. Due t o t hei r

l ocat i on, I r an and Paki st an pr esent t he best sol ut i ons f or

get t i ng t hese reser ves t o t he sea wi t h t he shor t est

possi bl e pi pel i nes, wi t h Gwadar bei ng t he cl osest and most

conveni ent war m wat er por t t o t he Caspi an r egi on. 74 Bot h

count r i es ar e pur sui ng maj or port devel opment pr oj ect s wi t h

accompanyi ng t r anspor t at i on i nf r ast r uct ur e t o l i nk t hem t o

t he Cent r al Asi an r epubl i cs i n or der t o compet e f or t he

l ucrat i ve busi ness of expor t i ng t hei r gas and oi l . 75 Fi gur e

6 i l l ust r at es how t he l ocat i on of Gwadar i s i deal l y sui t edt o meet t hese needs.

The i mpor t ance of Gwadar Por t al so ext ends beyond

ener gy r esour ces si nce Russi a al so domi nat es al l of t he

ot her aspect s of t r ade t o and f r om Cent r al Asi a. Al t hough

l ess pr of i t abl e t han t he ener gy ext r act i on and expor t

busi ness, t r ade i n ot her pr oduct s, such as t he mai n cash

crop of cot t on, t o and f r om Cent r al Asi an mar ket s al so

r epr esent s a subst ant i al amount of pot ent i al pr of i t f or any

count r y t hat can open a secur e rout e f or t hat t r ade t hat i s

r el at i vel y cheaper t han exi st i ng r out es t hr ough Russi a. 76

The Paki st ani s hope t o capt ure t hi s t r ade and even envi si on

Gwadar Por t as t he f ut ur e pr i mar y t r ansi t poi nt f or Russi an

74 I nt er nat i onal Cr i si s Gr oup, "Paki st an: The Wor seni ng Conf l i ct i n

Bal ochi st an, International Crisis Group,

Sept ember 14, 2006,ht t p: / / www. cri si sgr oup. or g/ en/ r egi ons/ asi a/ sout h- asi a/ paki st an/ 119-paki st an- t he- wor seni ng- conf l i ct- i n- bal ochi st an. aspx.

75 Hai der , Bal ochi s, Bei j i ng, and Paki st an' s Gwadar Por t , 97.

76 S. Fr eder i ck St ar r , "A Par t ner shi p f or Cent r al Asi a, ForeignAffairs, J ul y/ August 2005,ht t p: / / www. f or ei gnaf f ai r s. com/ ar t i cl es/ 60833/ s- f r eder i ck- st ar r / a-part nershi p- f or- cent ral - asi a.


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t r ade goods movi ng t o and f r om Sout h and East Asi a and t he

Mi ddl e East . 77 The pot ent i al pr of i t s f r om t hi s t r ade ser ve

as an addi t i onal i ncent i ve f or t he compet i ng I r ani an and

Paki st ani por t pr oj ect s. 78

Fi gur e 6: St r at egi c l ocat i on of Gwadar and Possi bl e Oi lLi nes Thr ough t he Regi on. 79


78 St ar r , A Par t ner shi p f or Cent r al Asi a.

79 Bl ack, "Gwadar, Health Advice for Healthy Living, August 2, 2008,ht t p: / / heal t hf or advi ce. com/ paki st an/ gwadar . aspx.


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C. REGIONAL COMPETITION: GWADAR AND CHABAHAR

The advant ages of Gwadar Por t ar e cl ear , and i n t he

absence of compet i t i on, t he Bal och coul d wel l use i t s

i mpor t ance t o t hei r advant age. Unf or t unat el y f or t he

Paki st ani s, a si mi l ar por t pr oj ect i s under way at near by

Chabahar , I r an. Thi s pr oj ect , f i nanced pr edomi nat el y by

I ndi an compani es, i s wel l under way and i s not meet i ng the

same di f f i cul t i es as t hose encount er ed i n Gwadar . Wi t h t he

advant age of r oad devel opment l i nki ng t he por t wi t h t he

Ri ng Road i n Af ghani st an, Chabahar i s poi sed t o t ake t he

f or ef r ont i n mar i t i me commer ce i n t he regi on.

The Gwadar port and i t s I r ani an compet i t or , t he

Chabahar por t , are l ocat ed a mere 110 mi l es apar t and are

di r ect l y compet i ng f or access t o t he same market s,

evi denced by t he t r anspor t at i on net works bei ng const r uct ed

and enhanced f r om bot h por t s t o Af ghani st an, t he most

di r ect pat h t o Cent r al Asi a f r om t he sout h. 80 Thi s r i val r y

i s a maj or concer n t o Paki st ani of f i ci al s, who have st at ed

t hat success of t he Chabahar por t woul d i nf l i ct a hugef i nanci al set back f or Paki st an. 81 I r an has been at t empt i ng

t o t i p t he bal ance i n i t s f avor t hr ough measur es such as

gi vi ng Af ghani st an subst ant i al l y r educed por t f ees when

usi ng t he Chabahar por t . 82 Paki st an has count ered by

gr ant i ng pr ef er ent i al t r ade st at us t o Af ghani st an. 83

Yet t he emer gi ng r i val r y i s much mor e t han an I r an

ver sus Paki st an r i val r y as each of t he por t pr oj ect s i s


81 I bi d, 101.

82 I bi d.

83 St ar r , A Par t ner shi p f or Cent r al Asi a.


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l ar gel y dr i ven by FDI f r om one of t he t wo emer gi ng Asi an

f i nanci al gi ant s, Chi na and I ndi a. Chi nese i nvest ment

account s f or over 80% of t he capi t al f l owi ng i nt o t he

Gwadar por t pr oj ect , t he t ot al cost of whi ch i s est i mat ed

at $850 mi l l i on, and over 450 Chi nese engi neer s and worker s

ar e pr ovi di ng t he exper t i se t o compl et e t he maj or i t y of t he

const r uct i on. 84 Chi na i s cur r ent l y an i mpor t ant t r adi ng

par t ner f or Paki st an, and i ncr eased t r ade bet ween t he t wo

count r i es i s a maj or ant i ci pat ed benef i t of t he compl et ed

por t . Annual t r ade bet ween t he t wo count r i es has r i sen

st eadi l y t o over $2. 4 bi l l i on, whi ch i s equi val ent t o

r oughl y hal f of t he t r ade vol ume bet ween Chi na and I ndi a.85

Paki st ani busi ness i nt er est s ar e advocat i ng pr ef er ent i al

economi c t r eat ment f or Chi nese compani es operat i ng t hr ough

Gwadar , i n t he hope of st i mul at i ng t r ade between t he t wo

count r i es. 86 The Paki st ani s ar e al so encour agi ng Chi na t o

use Gwadar t o f aci l i t at e t r ade t o and f r om t he west er n

Chi nese pr ovi nce of Xi nj i ang, whi ch has r ecor ded annual

f or ei gn t r ade of $4. 8 bi l l i on and a GDP of $22. 7 bi l l i on. 87

The Si no- Paki st ani par t nershi p i s especi al l y t r oubl i ng

t o I ndi a, whi ch has a l ong- st andi ng geopol i t i cal and

mi l i t ar y ri val r y wi t h Paki st an, whi ch dat es back t o t hei r

par t i t i on i n 1947. The r i val r y has encompassed t hr ee war s,

and cur r ent l y set t l ed i nt o an uneasy col d war bet ween t hese

t wo nucl ear power s who st i l l vi gor ousl y di sput e t he

nor t her n pr ovi nce of J ammu and Kashmi r . 88 The r i val r y


85 I bi d. , 103.

86 I bi d.

87 I bi d.

88 Kapl an, Cent er St age f or t he Twent y- f i r st Cent ur y.


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between t he t wo expl ai ns why I ndi a chose t o f i nance t he

devel opment of Chabahar and i t s associ ated t r anspor t at i on

i nf r ast r uct ur e, r at her t han col l abor at i ng wi t h t he

Paki st ani s and Chi nese and pool i ng t hei r r esour ces i n t he

devel opment of Gwadar , whi ch i s cl oser , and t her ef ore more

conveni ent , t o I ndi a. 89 Fr om a f i nanci al st andpoi nt , t hi s

opt i on woul d make more sense, however , due t o secur i t y

concer ns r el at i ng t o t he use of Gwadar Por t as a mi l i t ar y

naval base t hat wi l l be mor e di f f i cul t t o t ar get , I ndi a

wi l l l i kel y cont i nue t o eye t hi s pr oj ect wi t h skept i ci sm.

Compoundi ng t hi s t ensi on i s t he emer gi ng geopol i t i cal ,

mi l i t ar y, and f i nanci al r i val r y bet ween I ndi a and Chi na,f uel ed i n part by compet i ng I ndi an and Chi nese i nt er est s

and i nf l uence i n Cent r al Asi a. 90

Anot her key component of t hi s r i val r y i s t hat Chi na s

est abl i shment of a si gni f

Documents

XX Strategic Importance of Baluchistan