Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.jrc.ec.europa.euContact
© E
uro
pean U
nio
n, 2
01
2
Tailoring BioMA to assess climate change impact and adaptation options for Cuban agricultureProject Goal
The BASAL project addresses the long-term sustainability of Cuban agriculture by providing farmers, researchers and decision-makers with the tools, methodology and knowledge to deal with climate change-related effects on food production and natural resources sustainability.
Cuba’s agricultural policies attempt to achieve food security goals by:• Maintaining or increasing productivity while conserving the
natural resource base.• Reducing food imports and increasing exports.• Tackling the negative impacts of high input agriculture.• Transforming agricultural systems from large scale, state
managed monocultures to small scale, diverse and independently managed.
However imminent and ongoing challenges to achieve food security goals have to be considered for planned adaptation.
Project Approach
The JRC-MARS component of BASAL contributes to its goals by introducing, adapting and applying the Biophysical Model Application (BioMA) framework in collaboration with INSMET to communicate modeling applications to stakeholders.
BioMA framework for BASALThe applied modelling framework will be developed in three phases to ensure local stakeholders empowerment to apply and maintain the system.
Phase 1: Making the BioMA platform available:1. Deployment of BioMA platform adapted from the
EUROCLIMA project.2. Evaluate and define new requirements. 3. Training scientists on BioMA and modeling approaches
used.
Phase 2: Building a context specific BioMA application4. Adding data at finer spatial resolution. 5. Defining requirements of the web portal with stakeholders.6. Adding model capabilities (i.e. more crops) and calibrating
according to user needs.
Phase 3: Full system prototype:7. Web portal testing and further customization.8. Applications to assess climate change impacts and
adaptations options.9. Presentation, discussion and dissemination of results.
For MARS-JRC component: Maurits van den Berg (JRC-Italy) at ,[email protected] M. Rodriguez (JRC-Italy) at [email protected] Ransés José Vázquez Montenegro (INSMET-Cuba) at [email protected]
Research by the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) in Cuba demonstrates ongoing effects of climate change:
• Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events.
• Decrease of rainfall during rainy season and increases during dry season.
• Significant temperature increase.
• Increase in frequency, length, intensity and geographic extent of drought.
• Increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes.
• Increased incidence and extent of areas affected by fires.
Examples of observed impacts on crops:Sugar cane: harvest affected by unusual rainfall events during dry season. Droughts induced damages to recently planted areas.
Potatoes: delayed induction of tuber formation due to higher than normal night temperatures.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2518.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Annual fluctuations of mean minimum temperature during December and January and its effects on
potatoe yield
Number of years
°Cqq/cab
Soils - ISRIC-SOTER database and Cuban soils map
Climate: SRES scenarios A1B and B1 at 25x25km for 2030-2050– EUROCLIMA project
Crop parameters from Euroclima
Agromanagement: adaptedcrop calendars from Cuba and FAO
BioMA from EUROCLIMA
BioMA Applications for Cuba
Impact Assesment/potential adaptation options
New soils map
Downscaled climate Scenarios
Context especific BioMA
Land use
Regional and local agro-management
Historical climate time series
Change to small scale, individually managed food cropsReduce rice imports while increasing local production
Impo
rts
• Prototyping
Interaction with stakeholders on web portal
1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Years
% la
nd
Annual percent of land affected by agricultural drought in Cuba (1951-2000)
Drought lenght and geographic extent
More crops/ model calibration
