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www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September 29, 2009

Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Page 1: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

www.bea.gov

RIMS IIRegional Input-Output Modeling

System

Zoë O. AmbargisBEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic

WorkshopReno, NV

September 29, 2009

Page 2: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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What is RIMS II?

▪ Input-output model developed by the BEA in the mid 1970’s

▪ Incorporates linkages among industries in a regional economy

▪Best suited for analyzing the impacts of small changes in a regional economy

Page 3: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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RIMS II Has Been Used to Analyze a Variety of Projects

▪ Opening and closing military bases▪ Changes in tourism▪ New energy facilities▪ Construction of sports facilities▪ New retail establishments▪ New airports or port facilities▪ Opening and closing manufacturing

plants▪ Contribution of universities and

hospitals

Page 4: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Framing Your Analysis

▪What is the project/issue being studied?

▪What is the change?▪What is the magnitude of the

change?▪What is the timing?▪Which industries are affected?▪What is the affected region?

Page 5: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Ordering RIMS II Multipliers

Page 6: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Type I and Type II Multipliers

▪Type I multipliers Industry impacts only Total impact = direct + indirect

▪Type II multipliers Industry impacts and household

expenditure impacts Total impact = direct + indirect +

induced More commonly used than Type I

multipliers

Page 7: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Annual and Benchmark Series

▪Annual series 2006 national annual I-O data and

2006 regional data More current, less detailed 60 aggregate industries

▪Benchmark series 1997 national benchmark I-O data and

2006 regional data More detailed, less current 473 detailed and 60 aggregate

industries

Page 8: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Application Example 1

Page 9: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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RIMS II Multipliers

Page 10: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Calculating Impacts Using Type II

Final-Demand Multipliers

Page 11: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Accessing Your Multipliers

Page 12: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Multiplier Table 1.5

Page 13: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Comparison of Type I and Type II Impacts

Page 14: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Application Example 2

Page 15: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Calculating Impacts Using Type II Direct-Effect

Multipliers

Page 16: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Multiplier Table 1.5

Page 17: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Common Mistakes

▪ Defining the study area incorrectly▪ Averaging multipliers▪ Treating employment impacts as FTE impacts▪ Not converting purchasers’ values to

producers’ values▪ Treating changes in intermediate use as final-

demand changes▪ Not considering the net impact▪ Using multipliers for “Other government

enterprises” to estimate impacts of government

▪ Treating output impacts as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impacts

Page 18: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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2002 Benchmark Update

▪RIMS II multipliers will be based on 2002 national benchmark I-O data 2007 regional data

▪Dimensions of tables will change 406 detailed industries (compared to

473) 62 aggregate industries (compared to

60) 21 row industries (compared to 20)

Page 19: Www.bea.gov RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September

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Thank You

Zoë AmbargisBecca Bess

Hope FranklinThomas McComb

Web site: www.bea.gov/regional/rims/Phone: 202-606-5343

Fax: 202-606-5321E-mail: [email protected]