www.AttendanceInstitute.org

WelcomeAbsenteeism and GPA: Exploring the top indicators of

career and college readiness

Symia StiglerExecutive Director

Attendance InstituteAttendanceInstitute.org

Attendance Institute

The Attendance Institute, is a non-profit organization on a CRUSADE to position attendance as a top priority for school, families and communities.

We know that improved performance, better grades, higher levels of engagement and achievement all begin with showing up to school.

www.AttendanceInstitute.org

Time for Action & Investment

It is time we use the extensive data and research available to inform action

Time to invest: Proven and innovative strategies High quality services Staff, the right number of people at all levels

3 Key Areas of Focus

1. Raise Awareness –Utilize the data and research available to raise attendance for all students as a top level school and community priority.

2. Build Capacity –Help districts and communities find and fund the innovative services, technical assistance and dedicated staff required to increase attendance and ultimately increase graduation rates for all students.

3. Replicate What Works– Solutions exist, we will continue to identify what works and replicate those efforts.

Changing Trends & Improving Outcomes

Main goal in our work is to identify and drive solutions that:

Improve achievement and graduation rates for all students Eliminate attendance and learning barriers Improve attendance Close process gaps Increase the levels of authentic engagement with families Target supplemental services to the students most in need

attendanceinstitute.org

Featured Speaker

Elaine Allensworth, PhD Lewis-Sebring Director –University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR)

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About CCSR

The mission of CCSR is to build capacity for school reform by identifying what matters for student success and school improvement and creating the critical indicators to chart progress.

A number of features distinguish UChicago CCSR from other, more typical research organizations:

- a focus on one place—Chicago- engagement with a diverse group of stakeholders, - a wide range of methods and multiple investigators, a

commitment to sharing research findings with diverse publics.

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Today’s Presentation

Looking across all grades Pre-K to 12th grade Preschool and the early grades Middle grades High School Why are students absent? Changes in attendance over time

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Do Absences Matter?

From preschool through high school, absenteeism has serious implications for students’ academic outcomes

Students who are absent have:

- Lower test scores- Lower likelihood of being on-track in high school- Lower likelihood of graduating- Lower course grades – taking them out of the running for

college completion

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Definitions

Attendance rate = percentage of days present out of total days enrolled

Absence rate = percentage of days absent out of total days enrolled

Chronic absenteeism = missing 10% or more of days enrolled

Absences include excused, unexcused, suspensions, and course cutting

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Preschool and Early Grade Attendance

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Previous findings on the prevalence of preschool absences

There are very high rates of absenteeism in preschool- About 40 percent of CPS preschool students are

chronically absent

Attendance improves substantially in kindergarten and the early elementary years

Across a range of background characteristics, race has the strongest association with chronic absenteeism

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***

***

90% correct

68% correct

**

* Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001

Students with lower preschool attendance have lower letter recognition scores on the K readiness tool Not controlling for prior knowledge

0%<3.3% 3.3%<6.6%

6.6%<10%

10%<15% 15%<20% 20%+

Not chronically absent Chronically absentLetter Recognition

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Lo

git

s

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0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

Not CA CA Not CA CA Not CA CA Not CA CAMath Letter Recognition Pre-Literacy Social-Emotional

Development

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2.3 2.4

2.11.9**1.8**

1.4***

2.62.4

2.22.0**

1.7***

0.9***

1.6 1.51.4* 1.3**

1.2**1.1**

3.23.0

2.9 2.8*

2.5**

2.1***

Lo

git

sStudents with lower preschool attendance have lower kindergarten readiness scores on all subtestsNot controlling for prior knowledge

* Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001

88%

75%

90%

68%

79%

71%

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Kindergarten readiness scores are lower for students missing 10% or more, even after controlling for prior skills and background

Analyses control for prior achievement, prior preschool, race, gender, neighborhood poverty/social status, special education status, ELL status, and program type.* Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

0%

<3

.3%

3.3

%<

6.6

%

6.6

%<

10

%

10

%<

15

%

15

%<

20

%

20

%+

Not CA CA Not CA CA Not CA CA Not CA CAMath Letter Recognition Pre-Literacy Social-Emotional

Development

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

No controls Controlling for background and prior skills

Lo

git

s

** ** **

* ***

***

*

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The relationship between absences and kindergarten readiness scores is stronger for students with lower prior skills than for those with higher prior skills

Analyses control for prior preschool experience, race, gender, neighborhood poverty and social status, special education status, ELL status, and program type. Missing data points represent values with fewer than 30 students.

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Math Scores

Absence Rate

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Letter Recognition Scores

Absence Rate

Lo

git

s

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Is attendance in preschool related to outcomes later on?

Is attendance during preschool related to attendance in later grades?

How is attendance during preschool related to learning outcomes in 2nd grade?- How does being chronically absent over multiple years in

the early grades (preschool through 2nd grade) relate to 2nd grade outcomes?

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The more children are absent in preschool, the lower their 2nd grade scores

• Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001• Not controlling for background characteristics

0 < 3.3%(n=1,530)

3.3 < 6.6%

(n=1,676)

6.6 < 10%(n=1,304)

10 < 15%(n=1,157)

15 < 20%(n=630)

>=20%(n=940)

Not Chronically Absent Chronically Absent

556065707580859095

100105 100.6

97.8*94.3*** 93.3***

88.5***

82.2***

Prek Absence Categories

DIB

ELS

Ora

l Rea

ding

Flu

ency

Sco

re Some risk

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Roughly 1/3 of chronically absent 4-year-olds continue to be chronically absent in kindergarten

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Students with more years of chronic absenteeism have lower 2nd grade scores

Not chroni-cally absent(n=4,073)

Chr in PreK(n=1,381)

Chr in PreK + K

(n=423)

Chr in PreK, K, and 1st

grade(n=255)

Chr in PreK, K, 1st, and 2nd grade

(n=306)

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

98.894.6***

88.9***

81.3***

72.9***

Aver

age

DIB

ELS

Ora

l Rea

ding

Flu

ency

Sco

re

* Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students who are never chronically absent, at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001+ As outlined in the DIBLES 6th Edition Assessment and Scoring Guide (Good & Kaminksi, 2002). Some risk indicates the need for additional intervention.

At risk indicates the need for substantial interventions.

Some risk+

At risk+

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Attendance matters, even for the youngest students

Attending school regularly is particularly beneficial for students coming into school with lower skills

Being chronically absent is related to - Lower academic and social-emotional outcomes at the

end of preschool- Lower attendance in future years- For those who continue to be chronically absent, lower

reading outcomes at end of 2nd grade

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Looking Forward to High School and College: Middle-Grades Indicators of Readiness

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What do we mean by being successful in high school and college? Passing classes / Being On-Track

- Strongly tied to high school graduation

Getting A’s and B’s- Strongly tied to college enrollment, persistence and graduation from

college

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What are the best indicators of high school success?

• Core GPA and attendance in eighth grade best predict whether students in high school pass and earn As or Bs

• Other information doesn’t tell us more about who will pass, get high grades or get good test scores, including…• Race, gender, special education status, bilingual status, age • Test and Subtest scores• Grades in particular classes• Yearly test score gains and test score growth over the middle grades• Changes in grades over the middle grades• Perseverance, study habits• Discipline records, suspensions

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Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year

Students’ risk of being off-track in ninth grade by eighth-grade core GPA and attendance rate

Middle grade students with low grades or poor attendance are at high risk of being off-track in high school

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Students’ probability of earning As or Bs in ninth grade by core eighth-grade GPA and attendance rate

Only students with the best grades and attendance in middle school are likely (but not guaranteed) to earn As and Bs in ninth grade.

Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year

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>20% 20-15% 10-15% 8-10% 6-8% 4-6% 2-4% 0-2%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

19%32%

44%53% 60%

70% 77%86%

81%68%

56%47% 40%

30% 23%14%

9th Grade On Track by 8th Grade Attendance, 2009-10 First-Time Ninth Graders

9th Grade On-Track for Graduation 9th Grade Off-Track8th Grade Absence Rates, 2008-09

Perc

ent o

f Stu

dent

sChronically absent middle grade students are very likely to be off-track for graduation in high school

Chronically absent

Source: Allensworth, Gwynne, Moore, & de la Torre (forthcoming)

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Small improvements in attendance are associated with large improvements in later outcomes

Predicted probability of being on-track in ninth grade for students with the most and least improvement in attendance (from fifth to eighth grade) among students with similar attendance, GPA and test scores in fifth grade

Attendance improves

Attendance declines

99% Attendance

93% Attendance

93%

66%

5th Grade Through the middle grades…

8th Grade Probability of being on-track in 9th grade

Two students with

identical achievement in 5th grade

97% Attendance

2.8 GPA 225 Math ISAT

215 Reading ISAT

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High School Absenteeism

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In high schoolAbsences almost double from 8th to 9th grade

Source: Recreated from Rosenkranz, de la Torre, Stevens, & Allensworth (forthcoming); updated with 2011-12 to 2012-13 data

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In high schoolAbsences account for failure and declining grades

What explains course failures in 9th grade?

- Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of course failures

- Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total)

- Student behaviors—absences and effort—explain an additional 61% (73% total)

Students’ GPAs drop by half of a point from 8th to 9th grade, and this is almost completely explained by the increase in absences.

Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007) and Rosenkranz, de la Torre, Stevens, & Allensworth (forthcoming)

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In high schoolAbsences hamper strong grades, even for high scoring students

Students Scoring 16 in EXPLORE1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.0

2.72.5

2.3

1.8

GPAs by Absences among Students Scoring 16 on the EXPLORE, 2009-10

Fewer than 5 days

5-9 days

10-14 days

15-19 days

20 days or more

Aver

age

Nin

th G

rade

GPA

Ninth Grade Absences

23% high-scoring students are absent 20 days or more

Source: CCSR analysis of CPS administrative data

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In high schoolAbsence is very predictive of dropout/graduationEach week of absence per semester in 9th grade lowers the likelihood of graduating by 25 percentage points

Average ninth grade absences per semester

Chronically absent

Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

Based on incoming freshman in 2001-02

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Why Are Students Absent?

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Many factors are common from preschool through high school

- Health and health care

- Family/background factors

- Classroom and school factors

High school brings additional challenges

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In preschoolHealth, logistics, and family-related reasons account for 80 percent of why children miss school

Note: "Other" includes school phobia, lack of sleep, religious observances, weather, safety issues, and a general other category.

54%

4%3%

5%

3%

10%

3%

5%

12%

Reasons for Absences, 2011-12

Sick

Wellness Appointment

Chronic Illness

Transportation

Child Care

Family-related

Vacation

Other

Don't Know

Source: Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth (2013)

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In preschoolBesides illness, there are many obstacles that families face

Obstacles families face‒ Trouble getting child to/from school ‒ Parent/sibling sick‒ Family emergency‒ Child care issues

Some family circumstances can make managing these obstacles more difficult‐ Single parenthood, poor parental health, using public

transportation to school, living in poverty

Source: Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth (2013)

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In middle school and high school, illness is the primary reason for absences; other reasons become more common in high school

Sick/Doctor Appt

Family Issue Didn’t Feel Like Going

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Middle grade student survey

responses

74%

44%

33%

Sick/Doctor Appt

Family Issue Didn’t Feel Like Going

High school student survey responses

6 or more times3-5 times 1-2 times

74%

53% 51%

Source: CCSR analysis of 2007 student survey data

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In high schoolThere are additional reasons for missing school High school context makes it more difficult for teachers to monitor and

address student behavior

Problems getting to school on time- Transportation issues—buses, distance

Safety- Avoiding fights

Increased suspensions

% Suspended Average # Days

8th grade (2011-12) 14 4. 8

9th grade (2012-13) 21 5.7

Source: CCSR analysis of 2009-10 CPS student interviews and 2011-12 to 2012-13 CPS administrative data

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In high schoolClassroom factors matter: The same student often has different attendance in different classes

Some teachers’ students miss 13 days more per semester than other teachers’ studentsAmong teachers who share the same students, and controlling for structural characteristics of the class

Students are more likely to attend some of their classes than others: - In the middle of the day (not 1st or 9th/10th period)- Their smaller classes – those with fewer students- Their classes with higher-achieving peers

Source: Allensworth & Luppescu (forthcoming)

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Attendance Improvements

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Systems and programs that promote better monitoring and support have shown improvements in attendance Know your district’s data

- What data elements are you pulling? How often?- What indicators can you track in your schools

On-track data tools Examples such as CPS Check & Connect

May also be a need for coordination with other sectors Health care Transportation Safety

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Can schools have much of an influence on attendance? Yes!

Schools with more supportive environments have better attendance than other schools serving similar students

There have been substantial improvements over the last few years

Thank you

Attendance Institute Website

University of Chicago CCSR