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WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Fistera RoadshowMontpellier, 19 November 2003
Fistera WP2 Results
Methodology and Technology Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
PUSH vs PULL
It is a tangled world
Technology cannot be seen outside of context
i.e. if you want to assess its value!
Incremental vs Disruptive
Value is in understanding relationships
Existing vs Out of the blue
Technology Evolution & context
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
Technology
The FOUR LAYERS
Related to Information Society Basic vs Aggregate Technology Description for the lay-man
understand why it is relevant Is there value in investing? Leading, trailing…no hope?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
Technology
The FOUR LAYERS
Functionality
What is needed
Why the capability is important
Showing tech. alternatives
Evolution over time
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
Technology
The FOUR LAYERS
Functionality
Service
Whose business is it?
What is the potential market?
How can it change over time?
Is it culturally related?
Is it “basic”?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
Technology
The FOUR LAYERS
Functionality
Service
Ambient
What are the social implication?
What are the concerns?
Is life quality improving?
Who is benefiting?
What is the market size?
What can be the standard?
Is it location based?
How will it evolve?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Home Page
News
Contact us
Keep an eye on
Disruptions
Layers
Papers
References
Representation mechanisms
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Layer
List of …
Year related today 2008 2020
Representation mechanisms
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Relationships
Representation mechanisms
Within Layer
Across Layer
Type/Strenght impacts on uses enables enhanced by …
Geography
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x”
Disruptions, signpost
Disruption
Time
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in processing
Disruptions, signpost
?
Time
Mainframes
Mini
PC
PDA
Tablet PC
Smart Obj.GRID
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in telecommunication
Disruptions, signpost
?
Time
ElectromechSwitches
Routers BridgesAdd/Drop
ElectronicSwitches
- Mesh Ntw- SwRadio- Autonomic Systems
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpost
?
Time
UnderstandingSymptoms
UnderstandingCauses
UnderstandingSpecificity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpostTime
UnderstandingSpecificity
Human Genoma
Drug synthesesFast Mapping
Symbioses
MonitoringBio-Substitution
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpostTime
Human Genoma
Drug synthesesFast Mapping
Symbioses
MonitoringBio-Substitution
Wet WareBio PrintingSensors – U.Acc.Hi.Sp. ProcessingMolecular comp.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Technologies Identified
Technology Trajectories
Disruptions
Building the future
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Identified
What is a Technology?
Technology Clusters
Functionalities
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
What is a Technology?
Technologies identified
Chip Evolution(xHz; Hyperthread, Bus; W, …)
Lithographic Process(Masking, nm, Wafer size,…)
Assembling(Pins, Contact,…)
Packaging(Soldering, Casing,…)
Manufacturing(Clean Room, Vibration,…)
Design(CAD, Clock ,…)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
What is a Technology?
Technologies identified
Quantum Communications
Maxwell Equations(Statistical Modeling,…)
Quantum Applications
Secure Communications
Photon Modeling
Detector
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Behavior Technologies
Technologies CLUSTERS
Affective Computing Agents Avatar
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Coding Technologies
MPEG Public Key Cryptography
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications Technologies
3G Bluetooth Cable TV network Digital Cell. Base stations Galileo GPS Modems Optical Fibre Passive Distribution Ntw Power Line Transmission
Radio Connectivity Rings Satellite Software Radio Trunk xDSL UWB WiFi WPAN Home Networking
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Devices Technologies
3D Printers bio-printers Cell phones CRT Digital Video Recorder e-books Flat Screen LCD Information Appliances Notebooks PDA
Personal Computers Printers Projection Displays Robot Scanner
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Power Technologies
Batteries ZnMg batteries Fuel Cells Solar Cells …
Micro piezoelectric
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing Technologies
Digital Signal Processing Distributed Processing Graphic Processing GRID Computing Microprocessor Mobile Processing Molecular Computing Quantum Computing Software
Voice syntheses - recognition
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage Technologies
Distributed Storage DRAM Hard Disk Optical Disk Read Only Memory
Holographic Memory Polymer Memory Silicon Based Memory
Semantic Data Base
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Terminal points Technologies
Active Tags Beacons Bio-Marker Bio-electronics Bio-metrics Digital Camera Sensors e-ink Gesture capturing Haptic Interfaces Holography Intelligent antenna
MEMS Micro delivery chip Nanotechnologies OLED Optical Tags Passive Tags Sensors Wet-ware
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Functionalities
3D Imaging Broadband Communications Data Capture Encryption Gaming Platforms Gaming Storage Human Interfacing Image Recognition Information Coding Information Displaying Information Retrieval
Functionalities
Interactivity Language Understanding Micro Embedding Multimode Personal Identification Pin Pointing Printing Atoms Processing Profiling Security Shadowing Storage Virtual Presence Wearable
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Storage Processing Information Visual Display Printing Information Retrieval Communications Bandwidth Human Interfacing Data Capturing Pin Pointing
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Storage
ROM
Read/Write memories
Storage Infrastructures
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage - ROM
Trajectories
Silicon based Towards 13 nm, 100s GB
Support processing, appliances, Entertainment
Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan Tomorrow: USA on the rise (SOC)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
electrods
electrods
polymerThinFilm
Storage - ROM
Trajectories
Silicon based Polymer memory
TBs capacity
Entertainment, Education, References
Today: Europe Tomorrow: ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage - ROM
Trajectories
Silicon based Polymer memory Holographic memory
TBs capacity
Entertainment, Education, References
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, East Asia
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
Trajectories
Silicon based
GB – 100s of GB
Entertainment, SIM
Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.
SoC & SIM an important area for Europe
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
Trajectories
Silicon based Hard disks
R/W heads Magnetic Substrate
Today: USA Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
Trajectories
Silicon based Hard disks Optical Storage
TBs
Massive Parallel search
Today: USA Tomorrow: Open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
Trajectories
Silicon based Hard disks Optical Storage Nano Storage
Very High Density
Today: USA Tomorrow: Open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Infrastructure
Trajectories
Local Storage
from PB to EB 40Tbps interconnection matrix by 2010
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Infrastructure
Trajectories
Local Storage Distributed Storage
Data Grid Mostly Scientific and Institutional Applications
Today: USA, Europe, Japan Tomorrow: no changes expected
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Infrastructure
Trajectories
Local Storage Distributed Storage Synchronised Storage
Micro and Macro storage Personal area networks, Personal Virtual Ambient Business environment Network(s) environment
Today: USA Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Processing
…for Calculus
…for capturing information
…for the display of information
…for communications
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Calculus
Trajectories
Microprocessors
Following Moore’s law>>> 28 GHz by next decade
Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Calculus
Trajectories
Microprocessors Supercomputers
Massive parallel architectures>>> 100 PFLOPS by 2010>>> EFLOPS by the next decade
Scientific and Institutional application Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Calculus
Trajectories
Microprocessors Supercomputers GRID Processing
Peaking by the end of this decade
Scientific and Institutional application Gaming and communities Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for capturing information
Trajectories
Microprocessors
low power consumption for sensors
Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for capturing information
Trajectories
Microprocessors Digital Signal Processing
low power consumption for sensors
Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for the display of information
Trajectories
Graphic Microprocessors
Billions of polygons per second by 2010. Demands level over 100 Bpps
Embedded in microprocessors in the next decade Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: Japan
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for the display of information
Trajectories
Graphic Microprocessors Television image processing
Converging monitor and television
Embedded in the screen in the next decade Today: Japan, Korea Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Communications
Trajectories
Microprocessors
Growth in speed and decreased consumption Direct optical interfacing Microprocessor on SIM
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing Power penetration
As cost go down: 1950 - 1970 Mainframe 1970 - 1984 Mini 1985 - 2000 PC 1995 - …. Low perf: Embedded 2003 April : 1 billion microprocess produced by Intel 2008 - …. Medium perf: embedded 2020 - …. All embedded
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Microprocessor evolution challenges
Technology challenges: Quantum effect on electrons Synchronization clock Heat dispersion X ray lithography Interchip bus – pins
Economic challenges Fabrication plant cost ROI (volume related)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Microprocessor evolution challenges
Paradigm challenges: Molecular (and DNA) computing Quantum Computer
Systemic challenges Communications Battery power
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing Power leadership
Leading edge: 1950 - 1990 Custom 1990 - 2004 Intel, …AMD…. 2005 - 2010 Sony ? , Multi cluster Intel….? 2010 - …. GRID? Power as Commodity?
US leading till now Japan on the rise Europe out of the game. Is it a problem?
if evolution is towards embedding it is a BIG PROBLEM
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Information Visual Display
Screen based information display
Projection based information display
Symbiotic information display
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
CRT
Fading away, the smaller the sooner Significant market share till 2006 /
usage share till 2010-2012 residentialusage share till 2008 in the office
Today: Europe, USA, East Asia Tomorrow: nil
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)
Winning the market for the form factor Growing market share over CRT (except Plasma)
Breakthrough in production (SED like) expected
Entertainment (leading innovation), Office,…
Today: East Asia, USA with production in Asia Tomorrow: East Asia
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)
Growing market in the low tiers
Niche markets: entertainment, gaming, cellphones now, many small devices next
Today: Japan,Korea, USA lagging behind Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Nano-Emission Display (NED)
Rising in the last part of this decade HiDef television in the next decade (Plasma Killer)
Today: USA, East Asia (research) Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Nano-Emission Display (NED) e-Ink
Niche market in this decade, might expand Paper business related
Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: Japan, USA in more complex devices
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Nano-Emission Display (NED) e-Ink Smart Materials
Niche market early next this decade, might expand Variety of potential applications
Today: USA, Japan (research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
LCD Projectors
Mostly a business/office market Retro projection also in consumer market but it will
fade away under competition of Flat Screen
Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
LCD Projectors Micro Projectors
Impact by the end of this decade. Suits mobile devices (battery constraints)
Strong competition from symbiotic displays
Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
LCD Projectors Micro Projectors Holographic Projectors
Unless a breakthrough happens within 2008 it will fade away under competition of other systems.
Niche market (rather a curiosity market)
Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
LCD Projectors Micro Projectors Holographic Projectors Laser on “fog”
Larger and cheaper by the end of this decade
Niche market (rather a curiosity market) todaymight expand in the next decade
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Symbiotic
Laser based
Projection on retina. Increased wear ability in the last part of this decade. Normal in the next.
Niche market (blind, some gamers, pilots, surgeons,…)
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Symbiotic
Laser based Retinal Implants
Tied to evolution of bio electronics. Significant results to be expected by the end of this
decade with major evolution in the next one.
Niche market (certain kinds of blind people)
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Symbiotic
Laser based Retinal Implants Cortical Implants
Tied to evolution of bio electronics and cognitive science. Significant results by the end of this decade; major evolution in the next one. Competing with retinal implants in this
decade; no competition in the next Niche market (certain kinds of blind people) Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Printing
Paper-like printing
Object printing
Biological printing
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
ink-jet
printing definition exceeds demand by 2008…in general quality will exceed demand
micro printing, water marking – end of this decade
consumer market (and business)
Today: USA, Japan; Europe lagging behind Tomorrow: Japan, USA; Europe?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
ink-jet laser printing
price decreasing, still higher than ink-jet minor interest to micro printing and water marking
because of tag use in the business env.
mostly used in the business environment
Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
ink-jet laser printing thermal printing
low resolution, unlikely to increase significantly tampering robustness challenged by water marking
and tag by the end of the decade
mostly used in the business environment
Today: no significant research going on Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
ink-jet laser printing thermal printing electromagnetic printing (e-ink)
will increase resolution, colors, switching timebut unlikely to reach ink-jet, laser quality
wireless update of information by end of decade
competing with some low end display technology
Today: USA (products, research), Japan (research) Tomorrow: Japan, USATrajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Objects
laser printing
lower cost by the end of this decade, not cheap
professional market; unlikely to change niche applications, mock up, education
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Objects
laser printing layered printing
by the end of this decade: lower cost, faster printing,broader range of “inks”, integration with robots
professional market; consumer market possible by the end of the next decade impacts on design, production, distribution
Today: USA Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Objects
laser printing layered printing self assembling
increase in “productivity” with real industrial products early next decade seamless integration of self assembling into robotic production processes
NED screens, nano scale memories…
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Biological material
2D printing
increase in “productivity” with real industrial products second half this decade better tissue structuring
skin (almost available), muscle (next decade)…
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Biological material
2D printing 3D printing
creation of complex scaffolds (end of this decade) multiple tissue and structure printing (next decade)
3D tissues (early next decade), organs (?)
Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: USA, Europe?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Information Retrieval
How much information?
Variety of the information
Semantics of the information
Access to information
Semantics of the retrieval of information
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
0
5
10
15
20
25
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Trajectories
TB
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
Trajectories
TB
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
Trajectories
TB
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Television
Home Video
Photos
Telephone
Information Retrieval – How much info?
Trajectories
PB
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
Trajectories
Textual Information
Evolution towards the association of context Retrieval evolves to take context into account
by the next decade context will be the main“search” criteria.
Textual search likely to fade away by the end of the next decade
Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
Trajectories
Textual Information Image Information
More sophisticated tagging (automatic) by the end of this decade
From retrieval through tagging to understanding of the image and its components (next decade)
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
Trajectories
Textual Information Image Information Video Information
Similar evolution path of image retrieval Retrieval based on the tagging of reaction of viewers Plot understanding unlikely before 2020
Today: USA (security related research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan (animation tech. Research)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
Trajectories
Textual Information Image Information Video Information Sound Information
Mostly based on tagging, retrieval of specific sounds. Unlikely to change.
Very little research being done.
Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: Japan, USA
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
Trajectories
Textual Information Image Information Video Information Sound Information Voice Information
Tied to voice recognition tech. for textual based retrieval. 99% rec. By 2010.
Voice based retrieval by the end of next decade.Tied to cognitive science, context underst.
Today: Europe, Japan, USA Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Info Semantics
Trajectories
Tagged Information
Evolution towards automatic tagging. International standardization groups for tagging
Today: Europe, Japan, USA (vertical industries) Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Info Semantics
Trajectories
Tagged Information Interpreted Information
Piggy back on tags (where available) + info understanding. Semantics associated to the information and in
relationships (created when info is stored).
Today: Europe, USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe (may lag behind)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Info Semantics
Trajectories
Tagged Information Interpreted Information Semantic Web
Focus on relationships (previously created and determined in the retrieval process)
International forum.
Evolution based on basic tech. + more context
Today: Europe, East Asia, USA (slightly ahead) Tomorrow: USA, East Asia, Europe ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
Trajectories
Keypad
Fit for textual information or tagged ones Widely used, it will remain so. Wider use of handwritten queries as handwriting
recognition improves.
Today: no significant research going on Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
Trajectories
Keypad Click
Evolution towards “personalized clicks” Widely used, it will remain so. Progress in image recognition will further stimulate
click based retrieval Gesture capture (eyes, hands...) as click
Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
Trajectories
Keypad Click Voice
Increasingly used but it will not kill other access Voice interpretation adds semantics to the query in
the second part of the next decade.
Persons with disabilities, security and safety appl. Social applications requires institutional funding
Today: Europe, USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
Trajectories
Keypad Click Voice Deferred
Asynchronous and mediated retrieval. Will see a significant growth in the next decade.
Agent based technologies and Profiling.
Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz)
Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
Trajectories
Context dependent information
Increase in the query “span” and in answer “filtering” provides great value beyond 2008 “Sensing” by 2008, “understanding” beyond 2015
Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz)
Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
Trajectories
Context dependent information Agent based retrieval
Agent performing trivial tasks but also increasingly using understanding on the query International forum on agent interfacing
Applications in vertical segments (e-citizen, …)
Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
Trajectories
Context dependent information Agent based retrieval Personalization of information
Significant evolution by 2008. Strong impact in the next decade.
Evolution continues in the next decade on the level of intelligence in the personalization.
Person + context based in the next decade - SIM - WPAN
Today: USA, Europe (tailing close) Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
Trajectories
Context dependent information Agent based retrieval Personalization of information Negotiation of information
Slow evolution conditioned by level of trust Widespread application in the next decade with
significant impact from 2015 on. Likely to be used in the interim as “assistant”
Evolution Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA, Europe
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Communications
Paradigms
Evolution of connectivity
Transmission related technologies / infrastructures
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
Trajectories
Broadcast
Television
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
Trajectories
Broadcast
Time Sharing
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
Trajectories
Broadcast
Time Sharing
Client Server
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
Trajectories
Broadcast
Time Sharing
Client Server
Peer to Peer
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
Trajectories
Broadcast
Time Sharing
Client Server
Peer to Peer
Cluster to cluster
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
Trajectories
Broadcast
Time Sharing
Client Server
Peer to Peer
Cluster to cluster
Sticker
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Demand(Gigabits)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year end
P rivate/IP LC
IDDD
Internet/IP
MDNS/Frame/X.25
ATM & IP Switching
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
Wire is better than wireless (technically)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1988
1989
1990
1991 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Gig
abit
s
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
Wire is better than wireless (technically) Wireless is better than wired (humans)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
Wire is better than wireless (technically) Wireless is better than wired (humans) Flatter networks
Till 1980ies Electromechanical Exchanges 1980- 2000 Electronic exchanges 2000 - … Router, Bridges, Add Drop… 2015 - … Full optical networks? 2020 - … Mesh Networks, Terminals Networks?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures
Trajectories
wire-based transmission
Top Speed: 10s TB by 2010, 100s by 2020
Evolution: optoelectronics, optical switching, autonomic systems
Metropolitan networks: ring > star >> mesh
Today: USA (leading), Japan, Europe Tomorrow: ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures
Trajectories
wire-based transmission wireless based transmission
Architectural evolution towards a mix of technologies
Software Radio, UWB Picocells by 2008
Interference managed by terminals (?) 2020
Today: Europe, USA, Japan (all leading…) Tomorrow: USA (leading?), Europe, Japan, China ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures
Trajectories
wire-based transmission wireless based transmission Switching technologies
switching, routers/bridges
Switching in terminals and network edges
Optical switching (?) in the next decade
Today: USA, Japan (research), Europe (lagging) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Bandwidth
Transport technologies
Edge technologies
Terminal technologies
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Copper based
Leveling out by end of this decade, 100s Mbps Losing out to fiber in the next decade
Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services
Today: Korea, Japan, Europe, USA Tomorrow: Europe, USA (K&J will swap to fiber)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Copper based Fiber based Niche penetration in this decade, slowly substituting copper in the next one Different strategies in different environments
Architecture evolution (PON, Star, Mesh…)
Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services
Today: Japan, USA, Europe Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Copper based Fiber based Coaxial cable based Depends on status of existing cable TV infrastr. Strong competition from xDSL in most markets
Entertainment, Internetting (problems for up-link)
Today: USA, Japan & Europe (in specific areas) Tomorrow: declining
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Wireless local loop
WiFi cluster
spreading out through this this decade, 100s Mbps Competition with UWB in the next decade in home
environment
Internetting, home connectivity
Today: USA, others are followers Tomorrow: unlikely to change, but for emergence
of Korea
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Wireless local loop
WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster from 2008 on, 480 Mbps Winning competition with WiFi and Bluetooth in
the next decade in home environment
home connectivity, pico-cells, sensors networks
Today: USA, others are followers Tomorrow: USA, Europe ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Wireless local loop
WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster LMDS like
focused application in this decades, mostly Biz possible extension in the next decade
Connectivity in the last mile(s)
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Wireless local loop
WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster LMDS like Cellular 2G and 3G likely to coexist for next 10 years Software radio as disruption, 4G?
Broadband (limited) on the move
Today: Japan, Europe, USA Tomorrow: open field
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
Trajectories
Wire-based local loop Wireless local loop
WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster LMDS like Cellular Satellite Marginal, focused contribution Broadband to isolated spots Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, China ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Edge technologies
Trajectories
GRID
Increasing speed overcoming protocol limits
High speed for niche applications, extending the offer to some business in the next decade
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan ?, Europe ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Edge Technologies
Trajectories
GRID Mirroring
Increasing importance affecting ntwk.architectures
Research in the network architecture, mirroring, shadowing, data relations
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe ? (risk lagging behind)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies
Trajectories
Cashing
Common practice by the end of this decade, significant impact in the next one
Seamless cashing through discontinuous networks
Research on SW, profiling, artificial intelligence
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies
Trajectories
Cashing Local storage
Common by this decade end
Impact on network architectures (transaction traffic and burst traffic) and Biz models
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Human Interfacing
Trajectories
Human to human interfacing
Human to machine interfacing
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Human
Trajectories
Real time translation
Getting out of prototyping stage by decade end Significant impact in the next decade No substitution on sight of the human translator
Research in voice recognition, profiling, language understanding, AI, cognitive science, agents
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a
stronger lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Human
Trajectories
Real time translation Expert to layperson
Prototypes early next decade, applications in the second half.
Research in expert systems, machine understanding, cognitive science
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Human
Trajectories
Real time translation Expert to layperson Avatar to people communication
Autonomous avatar by the end of this decade Delegation may take place later in the next one
Research on rendering, affective computing, plus advances in basic computational technologies
Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Machine
Trajectories
Human-like interface
Significant progress but will not dominate the communication paradigm
Dominate only in focused areas (next decade)
Research on rendering, affective computing
Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Machine
Trajectories
Human-like interface Interaction Design
Significant contribution by the last part of this decade, from niches to all products/services
Research in cognitive science, pragmatics, human observation, engineering
Need to create and Interaction Design culture
Today: USA, Europe, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Machine
Trajectories
Human-like interface Interaction Design Ambient mediated interfacing
First applications by the end of this decade Profound impact in the next one By 2020 AMI will be the norm
Research as in other areas of HI plus on intelligent ambient, cooperating objects.
Today: USA, East Asia (research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Data Capturing
Trajectories
From Atoms to Bits
Identifying objects
Capture meaning
Sensing the environment
Networking the environment
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
Trajectories
Capturing shapes 2D surfaces
A commodity today for A3 size and smaller Much larger scanning through laser technologies
targeted to Biz, unlikely to decrease in price Satellite photography will become a commodity
Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
Trajectories
Capturing shapes 2D surfaces 3D objects
Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms Laser, aerophotogrammes, spaced satellite photos
Targeted to Biz, will remain costly
Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
Trajectories
Capturing shapes 2D surfaces 3D objects movements Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms Multiple video cameras and contour recognition Haptic interfaces
Targeted to Biz, will remain costly, cheap applications in gaming, education and training
Today: USA (mostly), Europe, Japan (gaming) Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
Trajectories
Capturing shapes Capturing writing
From “Graffiti” to normal writing by end of decade “Scribbling” remains a problem well into next one
Research profiling, context understanding
Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
Trajectories
Capturing shapes Capturing writing Capturing sounds
Improved capacity to discriminate sound and isolate sources.
Melodies and voice identification by end of decade
Security concerns drive research for timbre recognition, identification (next decade in a non controlled environment)
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA (stronger lead), Europe, Japan.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
Trajectories
Capturing shapes Capturing writing Capturing sounds Capturing sensations
Touch, acceleration, smell, taste… Better accuracy, less cumbersome, cheaper
Evolution of haptic, bio-electronics, laser sensing,…
Biz applications and mass market
Today: USA (leading), Japan Tomorrow: USA (Biz), Japan (consumer market)
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Identifying Objects
Trajectories
Reading tags
Increase reach, parallel reading, spotting Significant impact in the next decade
Reader embedded in many devices (cellphones)
Research in microelectronics, radio propagation, software (profiling)
Today: USA; Japan & Europe (lagging behind) Tomorrow: unlikely to change.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Identifying Objects
Trajectories
Reading tags Bio-identification
Evolution towards more practical ways of capture data.
A common way of identification in the next decade Research under security concern pressure
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA may take a strong lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Identifying Objects
Trajectories
Reading tags Bio-identification Spotting
Evolution towards more accuracy and spotting in complex environments
Available to institution early next decade. To service provider for consumers by its end. Groundbreaking research in LifeLog
Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA will take a strong lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”
Trajectories
Capturing emotions
Infancy stage today will evolve significantly in the next decade: evolution towards easier
capture, cheap sensors, quick response time Capturing of images (moving/still), aural, context and motion data. Bio-parameters
Research in AI, cognitive science, profiling
Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA leading in applications, Japan
leading in capturing devices
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”
Trajectories
Capturing emotions Tracking “attention”
first applications in the second part of this decade Evolution towards less cumbersome settings, higher accuracy, context evaluation
Application in safety, education, training…
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA benefiting from strong funding to
security related research
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”
Trajectories
Capturing emotions Tracking “attention” Voice understanding
Viable in the first part of the next decade Evolution towards better understanding of context
and comprehensive understanding in a “normal” environment Research in complex systems relations Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead thanks
to security related research funded
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment
Trajectories
Scalar parameters
More and more variety of sensors’ capabilities One chip for sensing, processing, communicating In the next decade flexibility with SW Radio
Research in basic electronics, bio, mesh networks
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a
stronger lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment
Trajectories
Scalar parameters Vector parameters
Evolution parallel the scalar sensors. Vector indication derived from outside in this
decade, from within in the next decade
Research electronics, mesh networks, …
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take the
lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment
Trajectories
Scalar parameters Vector parameters Bio-sensing
Evolution toward better accuracy, easier integration In the next decade sensors will interact with the environment Research in bio-electronics, biology, engineering
Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Networking the Environment
Trajectories
Sensors’ networks
Ongoing research. First autonomous networks by the end of this decade.
Evolution towards increased local processing and adaptability. Smart dust beyond 2015.
Leverage on sensors evolution.
Research in autonomous systems
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA likely to continue to lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Networking the Environment
Trajectories
Sensors’ networks Track-and-follow networks
Clustering a variety of technologies. Evolution towards better accuracy in wider environments. Research in image recognition, coordination of
communication environments…
Applications in security, monitoring, safety….
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories Pin Pointing
Trajectories
Location awareness
Tracking
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Location Awareness
Trajectories
Satellite based
GPS, Glonass, Galileo Evolution in the receiver part: cheaper, embedded Cost no more an issue beyond 2015
Applications in security, monitoring, safety….
Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: Europe may levarage on Galileo to
take a strong lead. US “based” chips
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Location Awareness
Trajectories
Satellite based Cell based
Cellular, WiFi, UWB, Beacons: mostly indoor
Cost free on the receiving end
Applications in education, tourism…
Today: Europe, Japan Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Location Awareness
Trajectories
Satellite based Cell based Tag based
Location provided by tag or by tag related info Evolution in the tag readers
Applications in production and delivery processes
Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Tracking
Trajectories
Tag based
Bar code replacement by end of this decade Evolution towards cheaper prices (1 c by the end
of this decade)
Applications in production processes, delivery, controlled environment (e.g. health care)
Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Tracking
Trajectories
Tag based Satellite based
Combine with communication return link Evolution towards decreasing cost of the receiver/transponder, miniaturization.
Applications in security, monitoring, safety, distribution chain….
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe may take leadership.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Tracking
Trajectories
Tag based Satellite based Image based
Spotting, (identification), tracking Evolution towards interpretation of “behavior”,
feasibility in complex environmentResearch in image recognition, Artificial intelligence, coordination of communication environments… Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Transformation of Products into Services
The Disappearance of the Computer
Ubiquitous seamless connectivity
Changing Traffic Patterns
Infinite Bandwidth
Disposable Products
Autonomous Systems
From Content to Packaging
The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Embedding of communications capabilities Rising of profiling Cheaper production processes
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Products becoming commodities Loss of differentiation capabilities Increased copycat possibilities
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Transformation into service companies Shortening of products’ life cycle Strong increase in call centers Automated customised assistance Increased globalisation of the market Restructuring of the value chain
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Health care Entertainment Transportation Consumer appliances Education …
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Likeliness to happen
Disruption is already occurring Connectivity bundled as a service feature Appliance bundled in connectivity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer
Technological Enabling Factors
Diminished cost System on Chip Wearable Computers Increase in connectivity and ubiquitous access
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Need to increase volumes Need to increase flexibility Need to provide easier use
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Skill to exploit processing capability in any object New level of competences required New actors in the value chain
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market sectors affected
Appliances Household environment Transportation Security Environment Information Retrieval …
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market sectors affected
Likeliness to happen
Thresholds of processing power >> starting 2005 Dramatic cost reduction >> early next decade Final demise of the PC >> beyond 2015
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsUbiquitous Seamless Connectivity
Technological Enabling Factors
Increased connection capabilities for any object Variety of Infrastructures WPAN Software Radio
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsUbiquitous Seamless Connectivity
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Mature market moving towards flat rate Demand for transparency Bundling communication into services & goods
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsUbiquitous Seamless Connectivity
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Shift from connectivity to service Bundling of services Seamless Service Hopping Crucial importance of profiling Embedded connectivity demand Increasing opportunities to offer new services
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsUbiquitous Seamless Connectivity
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Communications providers Goods producers Resellers areas, malls, shops…
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsUbiquitous Seamless Connectivity
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Likeliness to happen
A “sure thing”: not if but when and how
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsChanging Traffic Patterns
Technological Enabling Factors
Huge amount of local storage Sensors, tags Digital camcorders, cameras… Agent communications
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsChanging Traffic Patterns
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Growth of peer to peer Flat rate and always on
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsChanging Traffic Patterns
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry impact
Push towards the transition from ADSL to VDSL Transition towards an optical access Always on wireless connectivity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsChanging Traffic Patterns
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry impact
Market Sectors Affected
Telecom Operators Advertisement
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsChanging Traffic Patterns
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry impact
Market Sectors Affected
Likeliness to happen
Asynchronous traffic patterns Bottlenecks in the metropolitan network Wireless traffic
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
Measuring vs perceiving Bandwidth
Fixed lines – Backbones – local loop
Wireless – untethered connectivity
Local storage
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
Technological Enabling Factors
Advances in theoretical studies on propagation Terminals as network nodes Cognitive Radio Software Radio Mesh Networks
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Need for ubiquitous connectivity Emergence of a variety of local operators Great variety in traffic demand
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Incumbent Mobile Operators New Mobile Operators Service and Product industry Regulatory Framework
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Wearable Devices Any Mobile Object Healthcare Education Environment monitoring ….
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Likeliness to happen
Increased spectrum availability Unlimited bandwidth capacity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
De-localized Innovation, localized application
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
De-localized Innovation, localized application
Making an impact across market segments
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
De-localized Innovation, localized application
Making an impact across market segments
ROI
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
De-localized Innovation, localized application
Making an impact across market segments
ROI
Fore-sighting
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
De-localized Innovation, localized application
Making an impact across market segments
ROI
Fore-sighting
The Grand Plan and Micro Actors
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003
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