FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/

Experiences from FISTERA“Foresight on IST in the European Research Area”

FISTERA/IT Star MeetingPrague, October 22, 2004

C. Pascu, R. Compañó, JC. BurgelmanInstitute for Prospective Tecnological Studies, Sevilla (IPTS)

Joint Research Centre (www.jrc.cec.eu.int)

Foresight as a tool for developing common EU

strategies (in IST)

Setting the scene

• What´s the point? The Context • FISTERA Methodology and approach• Future: Looking beyond ICT

The Context

• EU Lisbon Strategy - The shift to the knowledge based society (“The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”- European Council – Lisbon, March 2000) and eEurope Action Plans

• In this context, ICTs have a central role to play:Critical enabler of productivity growth and innovation Important industry per seSystemic technology (affects/enables social and institutional

changes)

WHY FISTERA

• Contribute to building of an European Research Area in IST research

• Contribute to the open method of coordination by finding common grounds (vision, priorities).

• Bring in societal concerns and societal vision into a hard core technical area (technological)

AIMS (1)

• Bring together (systematic and extensive), actors and insights in national FS exercises on IST in order to provide input to the European Research Programme (FP7 IST)

• Develop the common vision and approach to the IS in an enlarged Europe in 2010 and beyond.

• Involve as much as possible key IST policy makers and players in the EU and at the national level.

• Create a European forum for discussion

Use foresight to get there

• FISTERA Mission: Strengthening a network of researchers and institutions that fosters understanding key factors that will enable Europe to become one of the leading players in crucial ICT areas

• What’s the point: What are Europe’s strengths and weaknesses with

respect to ICT as compared to global competitors?What are the opportunities, threats and challenges

for Europe?What should be done to improve Europe’s position?

AIMS (2)

WHO’s WHO?

• A Thematic Network for prospective activities on Information Society Technologies under the European Research Programme (FP5)

• Started in 2002 - Duration of 3 years• 17 Members• Coordinated by IPTS, part of the European Commission’s DG Joint

Research Centre

FISTERA METHODOLOGY

• Making use of FORESIGHT ¨TOOLBOX¨: – Traditional (e.g. Foresight studies), – “Adapted” (e.g online Delphi ) – New (e.g. “Technology Trajectories” concept) Foresight

tools

• For assessing upcoming technological, social, economic and political issues

Factors

Strengths and Weaknesses

Opportunities, Threats & Challenges

technological-related

Bibliometric analysis of patents and publications; funding

Analysis of trajectories and Disruptions.

Economic

& political

Information from national foresight studies,literature

Online Delphi,workshops with politicians & economists

socio-related literature search online-delphi

Scenario building exercises workshops online-delphi

S&T-based competitiveness . including human factors

Literature search,interviews,workshops; Online-Delphi

Scenario building exercises, workshops

TODAY TOMORROW

Factors

Strengths and Weaknesses Opportunities, Threats and Challenges

technological-related

Bibliometric analysis of patents and publications; funding

Analysis of trajectories and Disruptions.

Economic & political

Information from national foresight studies,literature

Online Delphi,workshops with politicians and economists

socio-related literature search online-delphi

Scenario building exercises workshops online-delphi

S&T-based competitiveness, (incl human factors)

Literature search,interviews,workshops; Online-Delphi

Scenario building exercises, workshopsExample

Reviewing national foresight visions and SWOT

Analyzed FS from 8 EU Member States (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)

Aim: Understanding commonalities and differences in the visions on IST

Next phase: 3 post- bubble and post 9/11 on security, convergence and the “new economy”

FINDINGS national FS

Different granularities from technology point of view National visions in line with Lisbon objectives EU not a central dimension (mainly present as part of the national

SWOT analysis) Visions in FS are often need oriented (areas of ‘’public interest``) IST’s are tools to reach social, eco etc. objectives, not and end in

itself

Important points from national FS

Forecasted Technologies are mainly extrapolations of what exists already.

Hype of the day as key trend for tomorrow (difficult to avoid “Zeitgeist” problem , i.e.¨being prisoner of spirit of the times¨ or ¨believing that what is ``hot`` today will remain so in the future¨)- e.g. -e-commerce (2000), security (now)

National FS do not cover the whole chain from technology assessment to societal impact

Parochial nature of FS (ignore happenings in other European countries) - The need for Europe-wide SWOT analysis and assessment of the relative position of each country and Europe´s at a global scale

Limited value for an EU approach (Sum of national FS # a European vision) - The need for a pan European permanent monitoring

Mapping national FS with Technology Trajectories

Information visual

displayD, UK

CommunicationsAT,CZ,D,F,HU,

ES,S,UK

BandwidthAT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK

Human interfacing

CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK

Pin-pointing

-

Data capturing

-

Printing-

StorageUK

ProcessingAT, F, HU

Inforetrieval

SEIndicator for consensus

on promising ICT domains

Applications in the National FS

HealthAT,CZ,FR,DE,HU,SE,UK

TransportAT,CZ,HU,

SE,UK

EntertainmentCZ DE FR HU

SE UK

LearningAT DE HU

SE UK

AgricultureCZ HU

SecurityCZ

Government SE

eCommerceES SE UK

Domotics AT

WorkAT HU SE

UK

Ind

ividu

als

Bu

siness

Public

FISTERA TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES Concept

Overview of potential technology evolution, challenges laying ahead, and potential areas where research investment may be more productive, given the local situation

Investigating clusters of technologies for their functionalities (i.e. what they offer) and then determining applications offered in different environments (e.g. at home)

Top-down analysis and Bottom-up analysis Currently comprising 87 technologies An "early detection system" - monitoring possible technology disruptions,

highlighting technology areas to keep an eye on

Online tool: 4-layer Model – state-of-the-art and perspectives for 2010 and 2020:

Http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com

The FOUR LAYERS MODEL

What is needed

Where should

research be focused?

Showing tech.

alternatives

Evolution over time

Whose business is it?

Where the research

investment

would be more effective?

Related to Information Society Basic vs Aggregate

Technology Is there value in

investing?

What is the social implication?

What are the

concerns?

Is life quality

improving?

Who is benefiting?

Technologies in the National FS

Information visual

displayD, UK

CommunicationsAT,CZ,D,F,HU,

ES,S,UK

BandwidthAT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK

Human interfacing

CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK

Pin-pointing

-

Data capturing

-

Printing-

StorageUK

ProcessingAT, F, HU

Inforetrieval

SE

FISTERA:Key factors

ECONOMICALSOCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL

POLITICAL

- Ageing & eHealth- Cultural Pluralism- Community learning - Ethics- Digital Divide ….

-Mobility - evolution of trade & economic affairs

- Governmental efficiency

- Security

- Miniaturisation - systems integration- Reliability & robustness- content ownership

vs free availability …

Spreading the word

Cross-European debate for building an European Research AreaFace-to-face vs Virtual approach

National ¨Roadshow¨ workshops (research community from FISTERA

Member´countries)

¨Targeted¨ meetings: Commission’s staff, R&D Nat Directors, Politicians (European

Parliament’s EPTA),Industry

Thematic meetings: Enlargement countries, Human Resources in IST,

Trends, Challenge and Drivers

Others: IST Days, DGINFSO meetings, ISTAG, academic & policy conferences, etc

Email alert: 600 people

Web: ~300.000 hits

¨Thematic” Online Delphis (e.g. IST

Applications)

Technology Trajectories:

Online !!

FutureLooking beyond ICT

• Technology trends and Visions towards KS

Convergence with bio, nano, cogno technologies• How Europe looks at iself ? Post-bubble, post-9/11

Foresights

• All public available knowledge http://fistera.jrc.es

• Use the site to comment and enrich debate

• Contact

R. Compañó ramon.compano@cec.eu.int

C. Pascu corina.pascu@cec.eu.int

J.C. Burgelmanjean-claude.burgelman@ cec.eu.int

FISTERA and network effects