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Worley Parsons spends $108m on Brazilian expansion Engineering group Worley Parsons has reached an agreement to acquire CNEC Engenharia (CNEC), the engineering and construction division of Brazilian conglomerate Camargo Correa for BRL170 million ($A108.44 million). The deal consists of BRL130 million in consideration and BRL40 million which will be initially retained by the business as a non-core asset. The business' pro-forma EBITDA earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization for the year ending June 2010 is estimated to be BRL24.5 million. "The capability of CNEC, based in Sao Paulo, Brazil complements the existing capabilities of WorleyParsons’ resource and energy businesses and provides a springboard for the next phase of WorleyParsons’ growth across South America," the company said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). “The acquisition of CNEC is key to WorleyParsons achieving growth and expanding our hydrocarbons, power, infrastructure, mining and metals capability by incorporating CNEC’s globally recognized multi-discipline capabilities," WorleyParsons’ United States and Latin America region managing director, Robert Edwardes said. CNEC works in thermoelectric and hydroelectric plants, subways, ports, airports, highways, wastewater, industrial plants, refining and distributing oil and gas, petrochemical and urban development throughout Brazil and in Latin America and Africa, and it became a wholly owned subsidiary of Camargo Correa in 1990. CNEC president, José Ayres de Campos said that joining with WorleyParsons would enable CNEC to grow geographically while adding to its technical areas of expertise. ↑ Return to Index BHP Billiton and partners approve Antamina expansion costs BHP Billiton and its partners have approved the capital spending required to expand mining and processing capacity at the Antamina copper and zinc mine in northern Peru. This issue Worley Parsons buys in Brazil 1 BHP Billiton and partners to expand Antamina 1 Venezuelan devaluation 2 Macquarie raises $440m for Mexican fund 2 Regional snapshot 3 Chairman’s message 4 Peter Beattie Reports 5 Piñera wins Chilean presidency 6 Orocobre secures Japanese support 8 Brazil moves to cut CO2 emissions 8 Chile’s new concessions framework 8 BHP Billiton may resume Chilean investment 9 Latam Stock Markets – What does 2010 hold? 9 Latam Retail Barometer Brazil 11 Chile 12 Colombia 13 Mexico 14 CSN buys in Australia 15 For the Diary 15 CORPORATE SPONSORS Edition: January, 2010

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Page 1: Worley Parsons spends $108m on Brazilian expansion€¦ · Worley Parsons buys in Brazil 1. BHP Billiton and partners to expand Antamina 1. Venezuelan devaluation 2. Macquarie raises

Worley Parsons spends $108m on Brazilian expansion

Engineering group Worley Parsons has reached an agreement to acquire CNEC Engenharia (CNEC), the engineering and construction division of Brazilian conglomerate Camargo Correa for BRL170 million ($A108.44 million).

The deal consists of BRL130 million in consideration and BRL40 million which will be initially retained by the business as a non-core asset.

The business' pro-forma EBITDA earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization for the year ending June 2010 is estimated to be BRL24.5 million. "The capability of CNEC, based in Sao Paulo, Brazil complements the existing capabilities of WorleyParsons’ resource and energy businesses and provides a springboard for the next phase of WorleyParsons’ growth across South America," the company said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). “The acquisition of CNEC is key to WorleyParsons achieving growth and expanding our hydrocarbons, power, infrastructure, mining and metals capability by incorporating CNEC’s globally recognized multi-discipline capabilities," WorleyParsons’ United States and Latin America region managing director, Robert Edwardes said. CNEC works in thermoelectric and hydroelectric plants, subways, ports, airports, highways, wastewater, industrial plants, refining and distributing oil and gas, petrochemical and urban development throughout Brazil and in Latin America and Africa, and it became a wholly owned subsidiary of Camargo Correa in 1990. CNEC president, José Ayres de Campos said that joining with WorleyParsons would enable CNEC to grow geographically while adding to its technical areas of expertise. ↑ Return to Index

BHP Billiton and partners approve Antamina expansion costs BHP Billiton and its partners have approved the capital spending required to expand mining and processing capacity at the Antamina copper and zinc mine in northern Peru.

This issue

Worley Parsons buys in Brazil 1 BHP Billiton and partners to expand Antamina 1 Venezuelan devaluation 2 Macquarie raises $440m for Mexican fund 2 Regional snapshot 3 Chairman’s message 4 Peter Beattie Reports 5 Piñera wins Chilean presidency 6 Orocobre secures Japanese support 8 Brazil moves to cut CO2 emissions 8 Chile’s new concessions framework 8

BHP Billiton may resume Chilean investment 9 Latam Stock Markets – What does 2010 hold? 9 Latam Retail Barometer Brazil 11 Chile 12 Colombia 13 Mexico 14 CSN buys in Australia 15 For the Diary 15

CORPORATE SPONSORS

Edition: January, 2010

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Newsletter of the Australia-Latin America Business Council Page 2

www.alabc.com.au Tel: 02 9458 7393

BHP Billiton holds 33.75 per cent of Antamina, with fellow miner Xstrata (33.75 per cent), Teck Resources (22.5 per cent) and Mitsubishi Corporation (10 per cent). All four partners approved their respective shares of the projects $US1,288 million ($A1.41 billion) capital budget, BHP Billiton said in a statement on January 6. BHP Billiton's share of the expansion cost is $US434.7 million ($A476.75 million). The expansion project will increase the site's ore processing capacity by 38 per cent to 130,000 tonnes per day. Higher mineral ore reserves previously reported in combination with the expanded processing capacity will result in a mine life extension of six years from 2023 until 2029. Xstrata Zinc Chief Executive Santiago Zaldumbide said: “The zinc production coming from Antamina reinforces the position of Xstrata Zinc as the largest integrated zinc producer in the world.” The expansion will require the acquisition of new mining equipment, an expansion to the truck workshop and concentrator plant, the construction of a new 55 kilometre electric power transmission line, and enhancements to the current water management and tailings storage systems. The expansion will create 2,726 jobs in the construction phase and 500 additional permanent positions. Construction will commence in the first quarter of 2010 and the project is scheduled to be commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2012. ↑ Return to Index

Venezuelan devaluation of the bolivar

On January 8, Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, announced the devaluation of the bolivar against the dollar and replacement of the single rate fixed exchange system for a dual exchange regime. Strict foreign exchange controls will remain in place. The two new officially fixed parities, effective as of January 11 are: • A preferential exchange rate of 2.60 Bs.F/$ for “essential” imports (food, medicine, public sector imports and others). This rate is a 17.3 percent devaluation of the bolivar compared with its previous official value of 2.15 Bs.F/$ set in 2005; and • An exchange rate of 4.3 Bs.F/$ for other operations (most imports, exports and capital account transactions such as profits and dividends), which is a devaluation of 50 percent. This is the rate that the state oil company (PDVSA) will receive for oil exports. The government also announced that it will transfer $7.0 billion (1.8 percent of GDP), from the central bank’s international reserves to the off-budget National Economic Development Fund (FONDEN) in order to stimulate economic activity. According to the central bank, Venezuela’s “optimum” level of reserves is about $28 billion; the current level is $35 billion. THE DEVALUATION TIMING According to the Institute of International Finance, “the chief objective of the bolivar devaluation is to boost government spending in order to support economic activity and the political standing of pro-Chavez candidates ahead of the September mid-term election. Popular support for the government has declined as the economy fell into stagflation in 2009. Real GDP contracted 2.9 percent and end-period annual inflation reached 25.1 percent last year, following several years of rapid growth of government spending and strong economic expansion.” As oil accounts for the bulk of exports (95 percent) and central government revenue (55 percent), the decline in the oil price last year triggered by the global downturn has sharply undermined Chavez’s growth strategy that relies heavily on oil financed-public spending as its chief driver. With oil-linked dollar revenues exceeding dollar expenditures, devaluation of the bolivar against the dollar allows the government to boost its fiscal position in local currency terms. The Institute of International Finance estimates that this devaluation will increase government resources by about 5.0 percent of GDP in 2010. ↑ Return to Index

Macquarie raises $440m for Mexican infrastructure fund Macquarie Group Ltd has raised 5.2 billion pesos ($A440 million), as the investment bank completes the first phase of its Macquarie Mexican Infrastructure Fund (MMIF). Mexico’s national infrastructure fund, FONADIN (Fondo Nacional de Infraestructura), which is the cornerstone investor in the fund, has made an initial commitment of approximately 1.04 billion pesos ($A87.7 million) to the fund, while seven Mexican pension funds contributed a combined 3.4 billion pesos. Macquarie contributed 750 million pesos ($A63.9 million) to the fund.

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Newsletter of the Australia-Latin America Business Council Page 3

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The fund, the first of its kind in Mexico and Macquarie's first in Latin America, will invest in at least five infrastructure projects, said Mark Ramsey, executive director and president of Macquarie Capital at a press conference at the Mexican stock exchange. "MMIF is an attractive investment opportunity that provides Mexican and international institutions with a vehicle to invest in a domestic infrastructure portfolio and contribute to the nation building goals set out in the government's infrastructure plan,” Mr Ramsey said. “We are delighted to have FONADIN and the country’s leading pension funds as cornerstone investors in

the Fund and look forward to a long and successful partnership with them.” According to Macquarie, the fund will target investments across infrastructure asset classes that include roads and rail, airports and ports, water and wastewater, energy and utilities as well as social and communications infrastructure. ↑ Return to Index

Regional Snapshot

Argentina: President dismisses Central Bank chief.

Amid a political row about the use of Central Bank reserves to purchase government debt, President Kirchner dismissed Central Bank President Martín Redrado, who has since appealed the decision, stating that only Congress can remove him from his post. Meanwhile, Argentina is finalising plans aimed at helping the country return to international credit markets. Unaffected by the political turmoil, the outlook for growth this year continues to improve, buttressed by a strong rebound in the domestic sector.

Brazil: Economy to rebound sharply.

Although growth in the third quarter surprised to the downside, the economy is showing signs that a strong rebound is underway. The domestic sector will likely remain the primary driver of economic growth, underscored by falling unemployment and a recovery in retail sales. As a result, the outlook for this year continues to

improve and economic growth is seen bouncing back to pre-crisis levels.

Chile: Piñera wins first round elections

. Meanwhile, Sebastián Piñera from the conservative Coalition for Change won the first round of the presidential elections held on 19 December, ahead of former president Eduardo Frei, from the ruling centre-left Concert of Parties for Democracy. Nevertheless, as neither candidate obtained the required 50% majority, both candidates will face a second round on 17 January.

Colombia: Economy will experience moderate recovery.

Tensions between Colombia and Venezuela remain strong and both countries continue to increase their presence of troops at the border. Meanwhile, despite an unexpected contraction in the third quarter of 2009, the economic outlook keeps improving and panellists expect the country to recover this year, after having experienced a year of flat growth in 2009.

Mexico: Credit rating cut again.

Growth prospects are improving slightly, as economic activity is slowly coming out of the worst slump in decades. That said, economic growth is likely to remain modest this year amid low consumer confidence levels as a well as a sharp decline in remittances from Mexicans working abroad. Meanwhile, following on Fitch's rating cut in November, Standard & Poor's recently downgraded the country's credit rating to BBB, arguing that the recently approved tax reform is insufficient to compensate for the reduction of revenues caused by decline in oil production.

Peru: Moody's lifts credit rating to investment grade.

This year the economy should experience solid growth on the back of increased domestic and external demand, higher commodity prices as well as the effects of the stimulus measures, which are expected to continue throughout most of the year. Meanwhile, international credit rating agency Moody's raised Peru's credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3 citing the authorities' ability to steer the economy in the face of external shocks.

Venezuela: Government devalues currency and imposes dual rate system. On 8 January, the government announced the devaluation of the bolívar in a surprise move and announced the introduction of a two-tier exchange rate system. The exchange rate moved from 2.15 bolívares per US$ to a preferential rate of 2.60 bolívares per US$ for food and medicine, while another exchange rate for all other transactions was established at 4.30 bolívares per US$. Although the devaluation was necessary to improve the competitiveness and to balance the increasing budget deficit, the move will probably cause a surge in inflation. ↑ Return to Index

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Newsletter of the Australia-Latin America Business Council Page 4

www.alabc.com.au Tel: 02 9458 7393

Chairman’s Message As we launch ourselves into 2010, one of the key questions being asked is how the Chinese economy will perform in the coming year. This reflects the fact that, if the global economy is to enjoy solid growth this year (being in the range of 2.5-3.0%), it will come from the developing markets and not from the developed ones in Europe and North America. Clearly, both Australia and Latin America (like most other markets in the world) are now very much influenced by what happens in China and, to a lesser extent, other major developing nations. At the moment there are conflicting signs as to what lies ahead, with Chinese growth numbers being surprisingly strong and measures being introduced to contain that growth and thus to avert a rise in inflation. Analysts have differing opinions on what will happen and there are authoritative figures actively arguing both ends of the growth spectrum for 2010. Whilst we wait to see who is right and what does unfold during 2010, there are some obvious conclusions that I believe we can draw from the current scenario: 1 Australia is correct in engaging with China (and other developing economies in Asia), but it would be unwise to assume that China will always grow at the high rates that we have known in recent years and therefore to become excessively dependent upon its performance for our economic wellbeing. Sound business practice dictates that you should never be excessively exposed to a single supplier or buyer. Balance and diversification are the right strategies. 2 China (more than any other country) seems to be committed to acquiring key assets in markets such as Australia and Latin America that will enable it to have a guaranteed source of supply of minerals and soft commodities. Each country will have to determine how it will respond to this trend, but there is a compelling case to be made for consolidation amongst the target companies, to acquire a greater critical mass in order to improve performance, to resist being acquired or to simply extract a much higher price in the event that being acquired is seen as the preferred option. The performance of global miners such as BHP Billiton and Xstrata (amongst others) is an example of what is possible from consolidation, as is that of Brazil’s JBS Friboi in building a global network that now sees it with leading positions in the meat processing sectors of Brazil and Australia, as well as globally. There is no reason why there should not be more alliances and consolidation between Australian and Latin American companies. It’s time we looked beyond the ‘competitors’ angle. 3 Australia needs to get serious about engaging with Latin America. Yes, we have made good progress in recent years, but there is a great deal that remains to be done and time is of the essence. Why? For a variety of reasons, including: a region with some 500 million consumers; a region with several markets of a size where Australia can punch above its weight in business terms; a region with markets whose GDP composition has similarities to our own and thus offer fertile ground for our skills and abilities; a region that welcomes our attention and that has shown that it wants to learn from us. At the heart of the engagement that we should have with Latin America lies education. On both sides of the Pacific! Australia’s share of the Latin American education market is far smaller than it could be. To maximise its potential we need to increase the teaching of the Spanish (and Portuguese) language and to include the study of Latin American history in our school curriculum. Success on the education front (and on the commercial one) will depend upon our institutions being able to send local students to the region. Reciprocity will grow the education business and will contribute to the overall commercial, social and political engagement between us. At the same time we need leadership, both at a political and business level. From the Prime Minister down, we need to hear declarations of interest in and commitment to engaging with Latin America. From the business sector we need entrepreneurs who have a vision of what could be and who are prepared to work to make it a reality. Major corporates such as BHP Billiton obviously have a significant footprint in Latin America and there are many SMEs that are establishing a bridgehead in the region, but we need to think big far more often. Why do we not have with Latin America the same level of engagement in agriculture that we do in mining? Given our appetite for and experience in structuring infrastructure, why are we not more active in the development of infrastructure in Latin America? Given our desire to become a regional financial centre, why are we not looking towards Latin America for engagement? If our ‘farm’ is for sale, why not consider attracting Latin American buyers? There are any number of issues that warrant analysis and debate. We should embrace the challenge and be prepared to consider options outside our ‘comfort zone’. Of one thing I am certain and that is that Latin America holds much more potential for Australia than we have so far exploited. The sooner we get on with the job the better. Jose Blanco Chairman ↑ Return to Index

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Peter Beattie Reports: ‘Don’t Ignore Opportunities in Latin America’

(Editor’s Note: This article is reproduced from The Australian Financial Review of 4 January, 2010. Peter Beattie is Queensland's Trade Commissioner to North and South America.)

Latin America is rapidly becoming a new mini-China, and Australian companies can't afford to miss out on the opportunities on offer. These will be accelerated over the next six years as the eyes of the world focus on Latin America for the staging of the two biggest sporting events in the world. The 2014 Soccer World Cup will be held in Brazil. Two years later, Brazil hosts the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. As we saw in Germany for the previous World Cup and in Olympic cities such as Sydney, Beijing and now London, these events act as giant economic stimulus programs, spurring large-scale construction and infrastructure expansion. They generate investment and mean enormous opportunities for Australian companies with proven experience in this area. Australian mining companies such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, plus smaller players, including Austin Engineering, Mincom and Groundprobe, are already in Latin America. With these two events on the horizon, more Australian companies should be there.

It's widely accepted that the key Latin American economies of Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Peru navigated the treacherous waters of the global financial crisis better than most. Each is looking at positive gross domestic product growth. These four countries have generally stable political and economic environments and are increasingly looking to open up to the world with effective pro-foreign investment policies. The resilience of Latin America and its future prospects is highlighted in the region's strong and profitable airline sector. Avianca, the flag carrier of Colombia, is planning a float (it's privately owned by Brazilian oil and gas conglomerate Synergy). It is also taking over the established and well-respected El Salvador-based TACA airlines, which serves much of Central America. The combined Avianca group will have a revenue stream of at least $2.3 billion, making it the fourth-largest Latin American airline group after TAM (Brazil), LAN (Chile) and Gol (Brazil). TAM, LAN, Gol and Panama-based Copa are all listed on the New York Stock Exchange. All four, and Avianca, are profitable despite the global financial crisis and in stark contrast to airlines in the United States, Europe and Asia where carriers are making record losses. The robust success of Latin American aviation is underpinned by strong intra-Latin America traffic, the strength of the Latin American economies and their currencies versus the US dollar. The airlines are well run and take advantage of the emerging middle class in Latin America. Australia is excited about opportunities in China and India, and with good reason, but Australia needs a balanced portfolio of investments and a diversified approach to exports that must include Latin America. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico all have significant mining industries and are compatible with the expertise and skills of Australia's mining services companies. Opportunities extend beyond mining: as outward looking countries, they have a strong desire for improved and expanded infrastructure. This translates into opportunities for companies with expertise in ports (land and sea), rail, road, tunnels, rapid transit systems and smart ticketing technology. Opportunities also exist in energy, education, agriculture and tourism. And all of these countries support public-private partnerships. Brazil has undergone a significant move towards modernisation, driven by a more liberal trade regime, deregulation and privatisation, and a population approaching 200 million. The B in BRIC (the others being Russia, India and China) says to the world that Brazil is becoming a world economic player that Australia cannot afford to take for granted. Brazil's need for new equipment and the development of new mines and exploration will increase significantly in the next few years. An emerging area is the energy sector in Chile. With gas becoming harder to get, Chile is looking to build as many as six new coal-fired power stations. These will require state-of-the-art cleaning technologies and will be adaptable to any Australian clean coal technology. Colombia is strong in mining and infrastructure development: new ports are being built and existing ports are being upgraded on both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. New rail lines and highways to transport goods to these ports are planned.

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Newsletter of the Australia-Latin America Business Council Page 6

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Australian companies are well placed to be part of building the new Colombia but we need to expand our presence to ensure we get first-mover advantage. Security concerns have acted as a barrier to trade and investment in Colombia but under the leadership of President Alvaro Uribe, a new and vastly safer Colombia has emerged. The President has deservedly won international acclaim for his efforts to curb narco-terrorism, with risks increasingly confined to remote jungle areas in the south of the country. I have visited Colombia five times and never felt unsafe. Peru is rich in opportunities in the mining sector. Large infrastructure projects, particularly ports, are also being rolled out or are on the drawing board and there are opportunities in education and tourism. Compared with the other key Latin American countries, Mexico has struggled the most with the global financial crisis. Its economy was hit harder and is taking longer to recover. But there are tentative signs of a turnaround, which means the world's 12th-biggest economy should not be ignored or underestimated. Driven by a population of more than 110 million, Mexico is actively pursuing a program designed to reduce its reliance on the US as a trading partner. Whether it's aviation, mining and mining services, infrastructure, education or tourism, Latin America is doing well and can't be ignored. If Australian companies don't take advantage of these opportunities other countries will. ↑ Return to Index

Piñera wins Chilean Presidency

Sebastian Piñera won Chile’s presidential election in the January 17 runoff against former president Eduardo Frei, winning 52 percent to 48 percent with more than 99 percent of ballots counted. Frei, whose Concertacion coalition has ruled Chile for 20 years, went to Piñera’s Santiago headquarters to congratulate his opponent.

When he takes over from President Michelle Bachelet on March 11 Mr Pinera will, in many ways, inherit a relatively easy country to govern for the next 4 years. Chile's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is among the highest in the region and the country boasts a long and strong democratic tradition - despite the notoriety of the military dictatorship of Gen Augusto Pinochet in the 1970s and 1980s. It is the least corrupt country in Latin America and one of the most stable. The Chilean poverty rate has plummeted from 39% when Gen Pinochet stepped down in 1990 to less than 14% now - the biggest drop anywhere in Latin America. Just this month, Chile became the first country in South America to join the OECD, the club of

the world's wealthiest, most developed states. Bold promises Mr Pinera also has the benefit of cash in the bank. Between 2005 and 2008, when money was pouring into the country from the sale of its chief commodity, copper, Chile racked up combined fiscal surpluses of $42bn - equivalent to a remarkable 26% of GDP. Mrs Bachelet has spent some of that money to offset the impact of the global economic crisis but there is plenty left over, and with the all important copper price creeping back up towards historic highs thanks to incessant demand from Asia, the prospects for the Chilean economy are bright. They will need to be. Mr Pinera has vowed to deliver an annual growth rate of 6% over the next four years and one million new jobs - bold promises in a country with a work force of less than nine million. Whether he is able to keep those promises will depend largely on the price of copper, which accounts for more than half of Chile's export revenue. The most immediate challenge Mr Pinera faces is what to do with his personal wealth, estimated at around $1.2bn. Most of that money is held in shares in national airline LAN, and Mr Pinera has vowed to sell them before he takes office in order to avoid a conflict of interest. If he handles that process with anything less than full transparency the centre-left opposition will pounce on it as proof of what they have alleged all along - that Mr Pinera is a voracious businessman who is not to be trusted with the public purse.

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Aside from his LAN shares, Mr Pinera also owns important stakes in a Chilean TV channel and the country's most successful football club, prompting many to compare him to Italy's Silvio Berlusconi. But while it is true that the two men have similar investment portfolios, they have very different characters. Family man Mr Pinera lacks the Italian's easy-going populism, and sometimes cuts a slightly awkward figure in public. Aged 60 and married with four children, he is the archetypal family man. Once in office Mr Pinera faces a balancing act within his own coalition, the Alliance for Chile. He himself belongs to the centrist National Renewal party, but the majority of his members of parliament belong to the larger, more conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI). If Mr Pinera's party emerges as the dominant force, Chile's government will be pretty moderate, but if the UDI dominates, it will be much more conservative. Many members of the UDI openly supported the Pinochet regime and are guided by their deeply held Roman Catholic beliefs on issues like abortion and gay rights. "It's going to be interesting to see which of these two elements holds sway," said Marta Lagos, director of polling unit MORI Chile. "Will it be the president, who is a liberal at heart, or will it be these more conservative forces that accompany him in his coalition?" The very fact that Chileans were prepared to elect Mr Pinera suggests that the Chilean right is finally emerging from the long shadow cast by the Pinochet era, when more than 3,000 people were killed in political violence and 28,000 were tortured. For two decades, the right was tainted in the eyes of many Chileans by its association with those human rights abuses. But as memories of those dark days fade and a new generation of Chileans emerges, the electorate is gradually overcoming its fear of the political right. Pressing issues Mr Pinera was studying in Harvard at the time of Gen Pinochet's coup in 1973, but came back to Chile three years later, making his fortune by pioneering the sale of credit cards. He opposed the Pinochet regime, but his brother was a minister in it and, in the transitional election of 1989, Mr Pinera campaigned for Pinochet's candidate. That has led some to question his commitment to democracy, but he has largely addressed those questions by presenting himself as a moderate who is not about to instigate any radical swing to the right. "There won't be any big changes in terms of policy," says Patricio Navia, a professor of political science at Santiago's Diego Portales University.

"Chile will remain on the same road map - a market-friendly economy with a focus on social spending for the poor. There's a change in the pilot but the country will continue on the same route." Among the more pressing issues that Mr Pinera faces are Chile's poor educational standards, rising crime and a yawning gap between rich and poor that exists despite the country's overall prosperity. He has promised to put more police officers on Chile's streets and to lengthen jail terms - this in a country that already has the highest number of inmates per capita in Latin America. On foreign policy, Mr Pinera faces a lonely four years in office. Much of

Latin America has swung to the left in the past decade and he will find few natural allies in the region. Relations with Chile's northern neighbours Peru and Bolivia - already dismal - are unlikely to improve. ↑ Return to Index

Travelling to South America has never been easier or cheaper. LAN currently offers services to Santiago from Saturday to Thursday and from July next will offer a daily service. If you have not yet experienced LAN Premium service, you don’t know what you’re missing.

DDiissccoouunntteedd aaiirrffaarreess ffoorr AALLAABBCC mmeemmbbeerrss As part of its ongoing commitment to connecting Australia with Latin America and supporting the work of the Business Council, LAN Airlines is offering Business Council members access to discounted flights to and in the region. Contact the ALABC on [email protected] or (02) 9458 7393 for details of how to access these discounts.

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Orocobre benefits from Toyota’s support

Toyota Tsusho has agreed to make a ground-breaking investment in a lithium project owned by Brisbane-based Orocobre, giving further credence to expected strong demand for the commodity. Orocobre managing director Richard Seville says he hopes the

landmark deal with Toyota Tsusho is the first major step in the company becoming a major lithium supplier ahead of an expected supply squeeze of the mineral. The deal involves Tsusho paying $US4.5 million ($4.9 million) to enable Orocobre to complete a definitive feasibility study for its Salar de Olaroz lithium-potash project in

Argentina. Once the study is completed in the September quarter, Tsusho can pay 25 per cent of the project's net present value for a 25 per cent stake, a deal analysts expect could be worth about $35 million. Tsusho will then be responsible for securing a Japanese government-backed loan covering 60 per cent of the project development costs, estimated at $US80 million to $US100 million in earlier studies. Orocobre will need to contribute 75 per cent of the remaining equity, which Mr Seville said could be covered by Tsusho's payment for its 25 per cent stake. The Japanese group - which is 22 per cent owned by Toyota Motor Corp and 11 per cent owned by Toyota Industries - will have the right to negotiate a lithium offtake deal with Orocobre. It beat other traders, miners and offtake partners to secure the deal, and was vying with a Chinese firm in the final stages. Tsusho is a key supplier to Toyota, which is rolling out a range of hybrid and electric vehicles which are powered by new-generation lithium-ion batteries. Naoto Yamagishi, general manager of the metal-and-mineral resources department at Tsusho, told The Wall Street Journal that he did not expect lithium supply concerns to be a problem in the next five years, but "if you look at it over 10 years, then we think the supply is going to get extremely tight". Mr Seville said the deal was important because it would bring the project, one of a number the company holds in Argentina, into production. "Being the first explorer that makes it into a producer in the sector is going to hold us in great stead when we look out five or 10 years," he said. ↑ Return to Index

Brazil approves law cutting CO2 emissions

Brazil’s President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, on December 29 signed a law requiring that Brazil cut greenhouse gas emissions by 39 percent by 2020, meeting a commitment made at the Copenhagen climate change summit. Brazil announced at the summit a "voluntary commitment" to reduce CO2 emissions by between 36.1 and 38.9 percent in the next ten years. The new law, however, is subject to several decrees setting out responsibilities and regulations for the farming, industrial, energy and environmental sectors. Lula is expected to sign the decrees in January after consulting scientists and other experts, officials said. Before signing the new law, Lula vetoed three of its provisions, including a reference to "promoting the development of clean energy sources and the gradual phasing out of energy from fossil fuels." Environment Minister Carlos Minc said he was was pleased with the new law because it showed Brazil's determination to respect the pledges it made in Copenhagen. "It doesn't matter if the Copenhagen summit didn't get the results we wanted. We will still meet our goals," he told reporters. ↑ Return to Index

Chile’s new concessions framework

On December 22, 2009, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet enacted the country's new concessions law in a ceremony at the La Moneda presidential palace in Santiago. During her speech, Bachelet praised Chile's successful concessions model, adding that the country is constantly approached by governments from all over the world that want to learn more about the local system. The modified law increases guarantees to both the state and private firms, and demonstrates how much the model has developed since it was first implemented almost 15 years ago, Bachelet said.

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CHANGES The new concessions law, which has the backing of the country's public and private sector players, involves three major changes, Bitar said. The first modification involves perfecting the procedures used to solve contract disputes. These issues will now be solved through an independent and specialized technical panel. The second major change involves improved regulation of contract changes and compensations. The third change concerns the collection of unpaid highway tolls. Many toll highways in and around capital Santiago operate using electronic toll collection devices, known locally as TAGs, and the government's goal is to implement these devices on all the country's concessioned highways. However, many bills remain unpaid. Municipalities will now help concessionaires collect unpaid tolls. If all collection efforts fail, the municipality will refuse to issue the offending vehicle's circulation permit until the payment is made. In exchange, the municipality in which the vehicle is registered will be allowed to keep a percentage of the debt collected, Bitar said. UPCOMING PROJECTS The new law will allow authorities to move forward on projects between now and March, when Bachelet's administration ends. Some of the projects expected to be launched between now and then include hospitals and public buildings, highways, ferry services and airport concessions. Authorities are also evaluating other concession alternatives, including sectors such as railways, jails, and irrigation systems. MOP is also working on a model to concession seawater desalination. ↑ Return to Index

BHP Billiton may resume Chile investments

BHP Billiton said on January 21 that it could revive billions of dollars worth of projects in the world’s largest copper producer Chile that it froze during the worst of the global crisis. BHP's spokesman in Chile, Mauro Valdes, said the company would likely resume its Phase V project at its Escondida deposit, the world's biggest copper mine, and may also build a desalinisation plant and an electricity plant.

However, while the projects had initially been estimated to cost a total of $US7.6 billion ($A8.3 billion), they are still pending approval and the outlay could be lower. "The projects have not yet been decided upon and their values are under review," Mr Valdes said. The Phase V project at BHP's majority-owned Escondida, which produces eight per cent of the world's mined copper, would replace an existing concentrator if approved, Mr Valdes said. That project aims to maintain output levels at the mine. ↑ Return to Index

Latin American Stock Markets: Winners in 2009. What about 2010? (Editor’s Note: This article is reproduced from Universia-Knowledge@Wharton published on 16 December, 2009) Emerging markets (EMs) have suffered less than developed countries during the financial crisis that has lashed the planet since the end of 2007. EM banks were not extensively exposed to high-risk credit derivatives and subprime loans, and they have suffered less damage from the shortage of financing than the major economies. This scenario has led many investors to view EMs as an opportunity for making money at a time when their portfolios were getting hit by losses. As a result, stock markets in developing countries have registered significantly higher prices in 2009 -- far above those in Western markets. The Shanghai stock index has gained 78% this year so far, according to Bloomberg. Aside from China, Latin America is the region capturing the most attention. There, the Merval Stock Market index in Buenos Aires has risen by more than 100% since January; Brazil’s Bovespa is up by more than 80%; and the Chile Stock MKT Select is up 44%.

These increases are significant compared with the gains seen in the world’s most important economies. For example, the EUROSTOXX 50, the benchmark index of the euro zone countries, has gained only around 13% so far this year; the FTSE 100 in London has risen only slightly more than 15%; the Dow Jones in New York is up 16%, and the Nikkei in Tokyo is barely up 11%. Will emerging market stock prices continue their upward trend? Despite concerns about a

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potential bubble, experts who spoke with Universia Knowledge@Wharton say that these markets will continue to grow over the next year – but most likely not at the same pace. Fear of a bubble The high returns in many emerging markets have led some analysts to believe that a bubble is being created there. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said at the end of November in an interview with French newspaper Le Monde that some emerging economies are seeing rapid, destabilizing capital movements that could create a bubble and threaten their long-term prospects. “Generally speaking, markets in emerging nations -- and Latin American markets in particular -- are experiencing very strong price increases, but I don’t know if we can talk about a bubble at this time,” says Juan Carlos Martínez Lázaro, an economics professor at the IE Business School. According to Martínez, the strong inflow of capital to some Latin American economies is justified. The region “is doing a much better job of dealing with this crisis than on [past] occasions,” and his own “expectations for growth are very high.” Since 2003, he notes, Latin American markets “have experienced a very positive and stable economic cycle in which they reduced imbalances, applied realistic fiscal policies, and created jobs and sustainable growth.” However, Vitoria Saddi, professor of economists at Insper (Institute of Education and Research) in São Paulo, Brazil, believes that there is reason to be concerned. “The bubble in the emerging markets is a reality, since the developed countries have reduced their interest rates to almost zero. While this produced a low rate of return in the United States and Britain … it boosted returns in those countries that are considered ‘emerging,’ including Brazil, Turkey and Chile. All you have to do is look at the change in the Bovespa index, [which was] driven above all by the fall in the dollar in world markets.” Saddi adds, “Nevertheless, the bubble only reflects the capital flows; that is to say, capital goes where there [are high returns]. The problem is that the bubble can explode; the dollar can recover and the impact of this explosion can be devastating for some countries.”

This is not the case in Brazil, he adds, where the gains have “not just been caused by the global economic crisis; you’re dealing with a structured economic policy.” In fact, according to Robert Tornabell, professor of financial controls and management at the ESADE Business School, the situation in Brazil underscores that what is happening in emerging markets “is not a bubble” but a reflection of “the great influence that the incoming capital is having in these countries…. The rise in indices such as the Bovespa is not extraordinary, since Brazil can be considered the economic miracle of this year.” In the wake of the global financial crisis, Brazil was the first country in Latin America to stage a recovery -- in the second quarter of this year -- and the country is expected to grow by between 5% and 5.5% in 2010, according to several sources.

Key factors for 2010 With this year coming to an end, investors are beginning to plan their strategies for next year. One of the questions they are asking is if Latin American markets can maintain their current pace of rising share prices. One short-term factor that has provoked serious doubts about the future of emerging markets is the recent financial problems in Dubai, the United Arab Emirate whose real estate holding company, Dubai World, caused a commotion in markets when it asked for a moratorium on its debt, which has reached some US$60 billion. This week, a default was averted when neighboring emirate Abu Dhabi extended a US$10 billion bailout to Dubai. According to Martínez, failure by Dubai to repay its debt could have influenced the rest of the emerging markets, as was the case during the Asian financial crisis of 1997, which began in Thailand. “But this time around, you have to separate what happened in the Emirate with the rest of the emerging markets, since the financial crisis has affected the richer economies while the emerging markets have not been affected as much.” For his part, Saddi believes that the impact of a debt default by Dubai would have been limited. “Any talk that investors will abandon all emerging markets because of a single market does not seem feasible to me,” he says. The second factor that will have an impact on the future of Latin American markets will be movements in the value of the dollar and the value of their own currencies, and the cost of raw materials. According to Saddi, “The fall of the dollar reveals a loss in confidence among investors. The increase in American debt is already unsustainable. The fiscal situation is more than sufficient for the risk agencies to lower their country rating [for the U.S.]” Martínez notes that “raw material prices are on an upward swing thanks to the global industrial recovery, and you have to consider that there is a great deal of speculation in those markets where the great investment funds continuously take positions

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….” He adds, however, that there is a negative side to the fall of the dollar against the currencies of Latin American countries. “It restrains their exports to the United States, their main trading partner.” Currencies such as the Brazilian Real “continue to appreciate against the greenback because of the arrival of foreign capital flows in the region.” However, he believes that it will be “difficult” for these currencies to keep appreciating at the same pace as they have in recent years. Lower Profits and Greater Stability In this context, Tornabell anticipates that in coming months the main Latin American stock markets will suffer a small correction before moving forward again. “They will continue to grow but not at the current pace, since they have been going so quickly.” He is especially positive about the prospects for Brazil. However, he notes that he is worried about Mexico “because of its social problems, and because it is exhausting its oil wealth. I tend toward Brazil, not Mexico.” In fact, on December 14, Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, downgraded Mexico, citing “the country’s falling oil output and anemic growth prospects,” according to the Financial Times. As for Chile, Tornabell notes that its stock market “is more stable and less explosive than the country led by Felipe Calderon [Mexico], but also safer.” Martínez adds that “stock markets will tend to stabilize, but you have to remember that indices such as the Bovespa are still below the highs they reached in 2008, although I don’t believe they will increase as the same pace [in 2010] as [they did] this year.” Still, he expects that interest in Latin America will continue to be strong in 2010. “In Brazil, there is a lot of euphoria among investors about what they have to achieve for the 2016 Olympic Games, and about how local companies can take advantage [of the opportunities].” Beyond such factors, he believes that some countries in the region, such as Brazil and Chile “have gained the respect and recognition of international investors because of their serious and reliable economic policies.” Saddi believes that “interest in some economies tends to be long term,” as in the case of Brazil, “whose attractiveness began [long] before the crisis.” Since 2006, when President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva was reelected – or even before that, when the country repaid its US$15.57 billion debt to the IMF at the end of 2005 – “the country has been recognized as secure for investors, [not just] because of the stability of its market and its policies, but mainly because of its sustainable macroeconomic conditions. In addition, it has a strong financial system, comparable even with that of China. The situation in Brazil is not just a temporary one.” As for movements in the stock markets of the region, Saddi believes that if the European and U.S. central banks commit themselves to maintaining clear stability in interest rates for at least until the third quarter of 2010, Latin American markets will remain stable. “I am not betting on an increase, but on stability. If rates were to go up against our expectations, there could be an orderly outflow of capital and it could stop any further inflow of capital in emerging markets,” he says. ↑ Return to Index

Santander Research: The Latin American Retail Barometer for 2010 (Editor’s Note: The following reports are reproduced with the permission of our Corporate Sponsor, Santander, which operates the largest retail banking network in Latin America.)

BRAZIL: CONSUMER SPENDING TO GROW 6% IN 2010 We expect consumer spending to grow 2.6% in 2009 and 6.0% in 2010. This reflects surprising resilience in 2009. We view the positive surprise of 2009 as a combination of a successful countercyclical economic policy action taken by the government and a favourable secular trend of consumer spending. Most policy actions to promote economic growth benefited consumer spending, as follows: 1. Monetary stimulus – The Brazilian Central Bank implemented a strong monetary easing during the current year, bringing the Selic base rate from 13.75% p.a. in September 2008 to 8.75% p.a. in July 2009, representing an all-time low; 2. Fiscal stimulus – The Finance Ministry put in place an important fiscal stimulus in the form of a cut in the IPI excise tax on autos, white goods and construction materials, aiming at enticing consumers to spend; 3. Aggressive lending by state banks – Banco do Brasil - Brazil’s largest commercial bank, controlled by the federal government – and BNDES – the federal development bank - adopted an aggressive credit policy, aimed at softening the slowdown in the credit cycle, while most private-sector banks remained relatively restrictive. In addition to those measures, inflation remained subdued and the labour market proved to be more resilient than expected. The result was that consumer confidence bottomed out in the 1Q09 at a significantly higher level than previous cyclical bottoms, rising to 155 points in December 2009. This represents the highest reading since this data has been collected, beginning in 1994. Those factors were enough to keep the YoY growth in retail sales in positive territory.

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Along with these encouraging developments, the credit cycle began to improve. Consumer loans began to recover at an accelerated pace, while interest rates on consumer loans plummeted during 1H09 to reach a new record low in September 2009. Additionally, the duration of consumer loans, which barely declined during the most acute moments of the global crisis, resumed a steady recovery trend. We expect two potentially negative developments for consumer spending in 2010: (1) a 200- bp monetary tightening during 2H10, (2) the end of the fiscal stimulus, with a return of the IPI tax to the original levels by March 2010. Nevertheless, we believe that the country is entering a long-lasting cycle of consumer spending, which will be the key driver to propel Brazil’s GDP growth to 4.8% in 2010E from 0% in 2009E. Our bullish expectation on consumer spending is based on some encouraging drivers that are likely to prevail in the coming years: 1. Brazil’s labour market displays a defensive nature, partly explaining the resilience of consumer spending – Commerce and service represent together nearly 50% of the country’s workforce, while the industrial sector – the most cyclical component – represents only 22%. 2. Bolsa Família transfer program further boosts consumption – Bolsa Família – a successful federal transfer program that essentially consists of a monthly payment to a low-income family in exchange for the commitment to send their children to school – has grown dramatically since 2004. Currently, nearly 12 million families are benefiting, from fewer than 4 million in 2004. We expect that program to continue during 2010 and in the years ahead, mainly due to the successful results: income inequality has been steadily declining since 2005. 3. Consumer leverage has more room to go – We believe that consumer leverage will continue to grow for several years before stabilizing. The household debt ratio (as measured by consumer loans divided by the average total annual income of the previous four quarters) more than doubled during the five-year period ended in 1Q09 to 34.8% in a fairly steady trend. Nonetheless, the household debt service ratio (as measured by household debt service divided by the average total annual income of the previous four quarters) hovered in the 22.5%-26.0% range. This gap can be explained by two forces that began roughly in the same period: the falling nominal interest rates of consumer loans and a rising consumer-loan duration. Since we expect interest rates on consumer loans to fall further and the duration of consumer loans to rise further, we can expect a sustainable and prolonged growth trend in consumer loans. Those favourable drivers, coupled with the economic policies that prevailed in 1H09 translated into a constructive trend for labour income. After a modest slowdown in 1Q09, a strong recovery has been in place since 2Q09. Unemployment is close to an all-time low. As a result, consumer loan delinquency rates have been coming down. ↑ Return to Index CHILE: CONSUMPTION TO LAG AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY We do not expect private consumption in Chile to resume strong growth rates between 6%/7% annually, such as the ones seen in 2004-2008, but to increase 3.7% y/y in 2010, a modest recovery. Why not be more optimistic? In our opinion, the deterioration of the labour market could put negative pressure on the recovery of private consumption. As a matter of fact, although unemployment has decreased in last months, and could continue during Chile’s summer season, we believe employment’s breakdown reflects a deterioration in the labour market regarding its stability and quality. In fact, as of October 2008, prior to the recession, about 72% of employment (4.77 million jobs) was classified as “employment for wages” and “employer,” but as of October 2009, this share decreased to 70%, equivalent to a loss of 130.000 jobs. This indicates that the only component of employment that is increasing is “self-employment”, which, in our view, is more volatile.

We do not expect these “high-quality” employment components to improve in the medium term. First, as happened in the 1999 Asian crisis, during recession periods, the economy shows an increase in productivity, therefore, requiring less labour to produce the same output. In addition, the Chilean labour market shows a lack of flexibility, as in our view, regulations are oriented towards the protection of job positions by a high cost of firing instead of protecting income (by unemployment insurance, for example). In addition, one of the drivers for private consumption in 2009 has been the increase in real

salaries. Up to October, real wages have increased 4.0% y/y, on average. Recall that although unemployment increased rapidly in

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recent months, wages are still rising, mainly because a significant part of the labour market is indexed to past inflation. Nevertheless, this factor (indexation to very low inflation in 2009, low but positive inflation in 2010), and high unemployment lead us to expect a slowdown in real wages next year. On the positive side, we highlight the recovery of consumers’ confidence. The rapid fall in consumer confidence is one of the causes of the quick drop in activity in the past recession; therefore the improvement in expectations could trigger higher rates of spending onwards. The consumer’s confidence index (IPEC, released by Adimark, a well-known marketing company) reached “optimistic” levels in October 2009, the first time since 2007. Additionally, we expect financial conditions for consumers to improve this year. In fact, we believe financial conditions in Chile are improving, mostly from a normalization of risk aversion, which increased as result of the financial crisis even though no Chilean financial institution had or has exposure to toxic assets. This scenario is reflected in a decreasing spread in loans to companies and consumers. We expect this trend to continue. Although in our view, considering the fact that the monetary policy interest rate is at its minimum level, and credit spreads have decreased, we believe most of the improvement in financial conditions could be linked to an increase in the demand and supply for credits. In fact, last Central Bank survey of credit conditions showed an important increase in both factors, which we expect to continue in 2010 owing a better economic scenario. Finally, concerning commerce GDP, we expect growth rates to be off of a low comparison base. We expect it to increase close to 7%, explained by a moderate increase in private consumption, but more importantly by a low comparison base, especially related to durable goods sales, and, more importantly, autos. We highlight that in our scenario, the level of the seasonally adjusted commerce GDP could not reach pre-crisis levels (3Q08) until 3Q10, two years later. ↑ Return to Index COLOMBIA: A STILL-WEAK LABOR MARKET FOR 2010 We expect consumer spending to grow 1.3% in real terms in 2010, as low interest rates should allow for a moderate rebound after an estimated contraction of 0.7% in 2009. Despite positive growth, our forecast implies still-weak consumer spending and reflects expectations for high unemployment and lower remittances that were a drag in 2009 to remain an obstacle in 2010. Official figures for national accounts that show consumer spending in real terms up 0.89% q/q in 3Q09, after a contraction of 0.51% in 2Q09 and a decline of 0.86% in 1Q09, and retail sales in October, which rose 0.75% y/y in October after negative growth in the previous 13 months, support our expectations for a moderate recovery in 2010. Despite the most recent moderately positive results, consumer spending in the first nine months of the year fell 0.25% y/y and accumulated retail sales through October were 4.0% below the level of the year before. We estimate the unemployment rate in Colombia’s main cities climbed to 12.4% in 2009 from 10.9% in 2008 and could reach 12.6% in 2010. Deteriorating labour conditions due to the economic downturn have increased labour supply and explain the higher unemployment rate.

According to official figures, employment rose in 2009 mainly due to part-time jobs and informal employment in services and the housing sectors. Jobs added offset the decline in formal activities in the industrial and retail sectors, but were not enough to prevent a higher unemployment rate. Labour conditions are likely to remain subdued and to be a drag on consumption spending and economic activity in 2010, as employment could see downward pressure from a 1.4% y/y decline in labour productivity through October and from lower exports to Venezuela. Remittances fell 17.5% y/y to US$3.37 billion in the first ten months of 2009. The sharp drop was mainly

explained by lower remittances from the U.S., Spain and Venezuela that have seen their own unemployment rates soar in the aftermath of the global turmoil. Remittances accounted for close to 2.0% of GDP and 3% of consumption spending in 2008 and were an important driver behind rising domestic demand, mainly of durable and non-durable consumer goods. The sharp reversal in 2009 helps explain lower consumption spending in 2009, while expectations for unemployment in the U.S. and Europe continue rising, undermining the outlook for remittances to contribute to stronger consumption spending in 2010. Consumer credit growth has decelerated from 33% y/y in 2007 to 11.6% in 2008 and -0.2% y/y in October 2009. The drop is explained by weaker demand due to deteriorating consumer confidence and weaker supply after banks tighten conditions on new

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disbursements to confront rising delinquency rates. While still below the level of the year before, consumer credit has shown a moderate recovery from the previous month, growing 1.6% from its recent low level in May 2009. The moderate recovery is in line with a rebound in consumer confidence and lower interest rates after the Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate 650 basis points from 10% in December 2008 to 3.5% in December 2009. Average interest rates on consumer loans fell 500 basis points from 25.5% to 20.5% respectively, over the same period. Interest rates on consumer loans are likely to continue falling and demand and supply likely to recover in 2010. Expectations for the Central Bank to maintain an accommodating monetary policy and the sharp drop in interest rate margins on corporate loans and yields of government bonds already observed in 2009 should push banks to offer more consumer credit and support expectations for consumption spending to accelerate in 2010. Recovering consumer sentiment supports expectations for a moderate rebound in consumer spending in 2010. The consumer sentiment index climbed to 13.1 points in November, the highest since September 2008. The result shows a strong rebound from the recent lowest level of -11.7 points in April 2009. ↑ Return to Index MEXICO: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION WEAKENED ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE ECONOMY IN 2009 Consumption spending in Mexico has weakened for two years now. In 2008, the inflation shock on food items along with the moderation in the levels of expansion of banking credit interrupted the positive dynamics of private consumption. In 2009, the decline was magnified by the recession, particularly due to the rapid deterioration of the labour market. According to the Ministry of Labour, there were 268,791 fewer jobs in the first half of the year, although these levels have been recovering in the second part of the year with 312,118 new jobs added from July to November. Although inflation levels slowly came down, lower levels of employment eroded payrolls, which has been declining for a year now (-4.1% on average in the year to November) directly affecting consumption. Moreover, banking credit, particularly in the consumption segment, sharply contracted in 2009 showing double-digit rates of decline since the beginning of the year. Consumption credit has contracted in 17.2% in 2009, mainly as a result of the fall in credit card credit, which has declined as much as 23.5% YoY during the year.

Even though we expect a modest recovery of economic activity in 2010 (our forecast is +2.5% YoY), we believe that consumption is likely to lag the recovery of the rest of the economy growing just 2.0% y/y in 2010 compared to previous years when it expanded at levels above GDP growth. Two negative forces will be working against consumption: higher inflation and tax burden as well as an only modest recovery of banking lending.

Higher inflation and tax burden will likely erode household’s disposable income, despite the recovery of economic activity. Employment has already started to recovery slowly, as mentioned above. For 2010, we expect a recovery of just 1.5% YoY implying around 198,197 new jobs during the year. Nevertheless, higher levels of inflation along with a higher tax burden will likely erode households’ disposable income, offsetting the effect of the recovery of employment. In fact, the sole expectation of higher taxes and prices has been reflected in a loss of confidence in consumers’, which could be translated into lower consumption in the next few months. Our estimations on the impact of the introduction of an additional 1% in VAT along with the increase of other excise taxes would be in the area of 1%, with total consumer prices increasing 5.2% y/y in 2010. This effect will be more evident at the beginning of the year, when the taxes will be actually introduced. Here it is worth noting that the effect is expected to be one-off, with inflation coming back down to levels around 4.0% YoY by 2011. Another element of the fiscal package for 2010 was a temporary increase to 30% of the income tax rate with no effect on individuals who earn below 6.2 minimum wages, i.e. M$10,298/month. In this context we believe that total payroll could continue edging down during the first quarter of 2010, and start recovering slowly afterwards to levels of growth of around 1.2% y/y on average by the end of the year, far below the 6.0% y/y-7.0% y/y rates observed in 2006-2007. Banking credit could moderate its rate of decline in 2010 as non-performing loan levels have started to recover. Consumption credit seems to have reached bottom contracting at a rate of around 21% y/y for three months now. Moreover, non-performing loans index in the consumption segment have started to recover. In October, the non performing loan rate for consumption credit

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was down to 7.6% from the maximum level observed in April of 9.5%. Credit card NPL rate has also came down to 9.6% from 12.6%. Thus, we cannot rule out some marginal pickup in the levels of consumption credit in 2010, although will likely continue showing negative rates of growth. ↑ Return to Index

Brazil’s CSN gains approval to buy 16% of Riversdale Mining Brazilian steelmaker said on January 13 that it has received authorization from Australian authorities to acquire a 16% stake in mining company Riversdale Mining Ltd.

In November, CSN, which operates several iron-ore mines in Brazil, said it would pay A$6.10 per share for the Riversdale stake. The acquisition is being made in two phases; the first, already concluded, was a purchase of 28,750,598 shares, or 14.99% of Riversdale. Now, with the Australian government's authorization, CSN will buy an additional 2,482,729

shares, or 1.3% of Riversdale. CSN said the move was part of its efforts to assure supplies of coking coal, an input that isn't locally available in Brazil. ↑ Return to Index

For the diary Date: February 4, 2010 Event: Networking reception with the new Chilean Consul General Diego Velasco Venue: Level 46, 55 Collins Street, Melbourne Organiser: Australia-Chile Chamber of Commerce & Victorian Government Contact: Eduardo Donoso - [email protected] Date: March, 2010 [To be confirmed] Event: Briefings to coincide with the visit of Colombian Minister of Foreign Affairs Venue: Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: March, 2010 [To be confirmed] Event: Briefings by KPMG on “Latin American Strategies for Recovery” Venue: Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: April 7, 2010 Event: ALABC inaugural Perth Dinner Venue: Perth [To be confirmed] Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: April, 2010 Event: AIG Mining Mission to Chile Venue: Santiago Organiser: Australian Industry Group Contact: Louise McGrath - [email protected]

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Date: 12-16 April, 2010 Event: Expomin Mining Exhibition Venue: Santiago, Chile Organiser: FISA Contact: Fernanda Nuñez, Tel: (56 - 2) 5307254 or Email: [email protected] Date: May, 2010 [To be confirmed] Event: Briefings by Boston Consulting Group on “The 2009 Multilatinas” Venue: Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: June, 2010 [To be confirmed] Event: ALABC – ABCC Sport Infrastructure and Services Mission to Brazil Venue: Brazil Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council & Australia-Brazil Chamber of Commerce Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: June 17, 2010 Event: ALABC Melbourne Annual Dinner Venue: The Australian Club, Melbourne Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: August 18, 2010 Event: ALABC Brisbane Annual Dinner Venue: Customs House, Brisbane Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or telephone 02 9458 7393 Date: October 14, 2010 Event: ALABC Sydney Annual Dinner Venue: Tattersalls Club, Sydney Organiser: Australia-Latin America Business Council Contact: Robert Trzebski - [email protected] or

telephone 02 9458 7393 ↑ Return to Index

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