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YGR-5045
Worldwide Market Forecast for
Commercial Air Transport 2005-2024
September 2005
Marketing Japan Aircraft Development Corporation
i
Foreword
The forecast of world air traffic and airplane demand for the next 20 years from year 2005 are described in this document prepared by the Market group of Japan Aircraft Development Corporation. This forecast covers jet and turboprop commercial transport larger than 15 seats excluding freighters operated by the world airlines domiciled in the 10 geographical regions except CIS, which are Africa, Asia (exclude Japan and China), China, East Europe, Japan, Latin America, Middle East, North America, Oceania and West Europe. Data sources of this forecast are International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), OAG MAX Database, AirClaim CASE Database, and Global Insight.
ii
Contents 1. Summary ................................................................................................... 1 2. Traffic Forecast ......................................................................................... 7
2.1 Regions .................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield ................. 7 2.3 Economic Forecast ............................................................................... 8 2.4 Trend of Yield .......................................................................................... 10 2.5 Passenger Traffic (RPK) ....................................................................... 10
3. Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) ................................................................... 13
3.1 Load Factor ............................................................................................. 13 3.2 ASK Forecast by Region ......................................................................... 14 3.3 ASK Forecast by Region and Range ...................................................... 14
4. Fleet and Delivery Forecast ........................................................................ 19
4.1 Improvement of Aircraft Utilization ........................................................... 19 4.2 Trend of Airplane Size ............................................................................. 20 4.3 Retirement of Existing Fleet ................................................................... 23 4.4 Jet Airplane Backlog ............................................................................... 24 4.5 Stored Airplanes ..................................................................................... 25 4.6 Current and Future Airplane Models – Jet and Turboprop ..................... 26 4.7 Jet Share in Small Airplane Market ……………………………………....... 28 4.8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast ............................................................ 29 4.9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast .............................................. 35
5. Engine Market Forecast ..................................................................... 40
5.1 Engine Category and Their Applications ................................................ 40 5.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast ...................................................................... 41
6. Forecast Methodology ................................................................................. 42
1
1. Summary World air traffic in 2003 decreased 2% from previous year because of Iraq War on
March and SARS disease on April, which affected especially Asian airlines transport. After the severe recession from 2001 to 2003, air traffic in 2004 recovered by 11% to 12% over previous year and finally surpassed the traffic volume in 2000 (before the terror attack).
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04
USA
EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC
RPK Change（％）from the Same Month
i 2000
MONTHLY TRAFFIC GROWTH IN MAJOR MARKETS
RPK：Revenue Passenger Kilometers
SARSAPR. 2003
US TERRORSSEP. 2001
IRAQ WARMAR. 2003
The low cost carriers (LCC), such as JetBlue in USA, Ryanair and easyJet in
Europe, are expanding passenger shares by offering low fare and new routes, and the trend of emerging low cost airlines expanded in Asia and in Latin America. To compete with the LCC, Delta and United Airlines in USA founded new low cost airlines as their subsidiaries.
Operating profit of world airlines is continuing 3-year loss since 2001 after 8-year profit to 2000 and it is estimated $3.7 billion loss in 2004. Return to profit is expected in 2006 or later.
WORLD AIRLINES OPERATING PROFIT
-2.0
2.3
8.4
14.012.3
16.5 15.9
12.310.7
-11.8
-4.9
-2.8-3.7
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
OPERATING PROFIT（NOMINAL $ BILLION）
2
The world economy, which is one of the major drivers for traffic growth, grew very slowly, only 1.4% in 2001, 1.8% in 2002 and 2.5% in 2003. In 2004 the growth rate recovered to 4% at last. For the next 20 years, the growth rate of real GDP is expected to maintain 3.1% of past average rate before terror attack.
The yield, which is another driver for traffic growth, will decline at 1.3% per year from now on.
World airlines experienced traffic growth at 5.4% per year in average for the past 20 years. During the next 20 years, they will achieve an average of 4.8% growth per year, and the traffic volume in 2024 will reach 8,886 billion revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), 2.6 times of the year 2004.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
2623
2395
2994
874
1184
1011
914
370
FORECASTACTUAL
3479
8886
YEAR 2004
YEAR 2024
YEAR1984
1210
WORLD RPK FORECASTRPK (BILLIONS)
AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)1985-2004 2005-2024
NORTH AMERICA 4.0 4.1EUROPE 5.9 4.4ASIA/PACIFIC 7.9 6.1REST OF WORLD 4.7 4.4TOTAL WORLD 5.4 4.8
TOTAL WORLDOTHERS
ASIA/PACIFIC
EUROPE
N.AMERICA
North America region, which now has the largest market share of 35% in 2004, will
grow at 4.1% per year slower than the world average growth rate. Accordingly its market share will decrease to 29% in 2024. Europe region which now shares 29% in the world market will grow at 4.4% per year, and the share will decrease slightly to 27% in 2024. By the faster economic growth of Asian countries, Asia/Pacific region will realize 6.1% growth per year and the market share will increase from current 26% to 34% in 2024. Asia/Pacific region then becomes larger than North America and Europe, namely the largest market in the world.
3
2004
1%
3%
7%
4%
4%
2% 4%
35%
29%
11%
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPE
E.EUROPE
ASIA
OCEANIA
CHINA
JAPAN
M.EAST
AFRICA L.AMERICA
(29%)EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC(26%)
OTHERS
(11%)
2024
1%
4%
11%
4%
4%
2%4%
29%
26%
15%
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPEE.EUROPE
ASIA
OCEANI
CHINA
JAPAN
M.EAST
AFRICA L.AMERICA
(27%)EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC(34%)
OTHERS(9%)
The traffic capacity in terms of ASK (Available Seat Kilometer) will grow at an average of 4.6% per year which is slightly lower than passenger traffic growth because of load factor improvement from 73% to 76% for the next 20 years and reach 11,638 billion seat kilometer which is 2.5 times of the present capacity of 4,743 billion seat kilometer.
In 2004, 14,300 jets and 3,900 turboprops are operating in the world. 7,700 jets (54%) whose 80% are narrow bodies and 3,050 turboprops (78%) of them will be retired for the next 20 years.
In 2024, jet fleet in the world will account 31,700 units which are 2.2 times of the present number. On the other hand, turboprop fleet will decrease to 1,700 units, which are 43% of current fleet, caused by the shift to the regional jets.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
JET FLEET FORECAST
20-59SEATER
60-99SEATER
100-119SEATER
OVER 400 SEATER
120-169SEATER
170-229SEATER
230-309SEATER
310-399SEATER
UNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST
31657
14292
22050
6056
9491RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
328JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200
CRJ700/900
717,737-600A318
ERJ170/190
737-700/800A319/A320
757A310
A350-800
A340
777
747XA380
727-200,737-300/400A320,MD80/MD90
DC8,707
747
DC10,MD11L1011
767
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9
A321A300
A350-900
747
A310A300
737-900
767787A330-300
A330-200
C110/130
ARJ21,RRJ95
4
18221318
8221436
6054
2787
1230567
1241441
1047644 640
2923
3819 4063
6430
18242764
534349 282 187
2725
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
1822
4241
822
4168
1436
4345
6054
9217
1230
2391
1241
3205
1047
3369
640721
20-59Seats
60-99Seats
100-119Seats
120-169Seats
170-229Seats
230-309Seats
310-399Seats
Over 400Seats
TOTAL 2003 YEAR-END: 14,292 2023 YEAR-END: 31,657 2004-2023 DELIVERIES:
25,082
WIDEBODY JETNARROWBODY JET
REGIONAL JET
UNIT
The demand for the new commercial jets between 2005 and 2024 will be 25,100
units including backlog of 2,600 units. The largest market will be 6,400 jets for 120-169 seats, and the next large segment will be 4,100 jets for 100-119 seats. For the new turboprop market, demand will be only 830 units.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
TURBOPROP FLEET FORECASTUNITS
15-19 SEATS
20-39 SEATS
40-59 SEATS
OVER60 SEATS
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
3914
1694
2691
2926
4401ACTUAL FORECAST
JET STREAM31, DHC6BE99/MOD1900,METRO,EMB110
JET STREAM41,CN235SD330/360SAAB340
748,F27/F50SAAB2000DHC8-300
DHC8-300
FD328,DHC8-100EMB-120
FD228,MOD1900
ATR72,DHC8-400
5
1637
224
945
232
920
212412
199
64 115302 346
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
1637
288
945
347
920
514
15-19 Seats 20-39 Seats 40-59 Seats
TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECASTUNITS
TOTAL FLEET2004 YEAR-END: 3,9142024 YEAR-END: 1,6942005-2024 DELIVERIES
827
412
545
60-79 Seats
North America region will maintain the largest market in the world, and it will get 8,600 deliveries which are 34% of total new jets. The second largest market will be Asia/Pacific region which is expected to grow faster than other regions, and they will receive 6,900 new jets (27%). Europe region will need 6,300 new jets (25%) for the next 20 years.
29641801
1247563
8570
63356881
3296
5956
3754
2771
1811
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
RETAINED
JET FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGIONUNITS
NEW DELIVERY
11534
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
8136 8128
3859
TOTAL FLEET2004 YEAR-END 14,2922024 YEAR-END 31,657 2005-2024 DELIVERIES
25,082
25,100 jets delivered for the next 20 years will be $1,251 billions in dollar value.
The largest jet market will be $343 billions for 310 - 399 seats, the next largest will be $252 billions for 230 - 309 seats, followed by $246 billions for 120 - 169 seats.
6
The amount of turboprop delivery will be very small ($11.8 billions) relative to jet delivery value.
4063
2764
1824
6430
2923
3819
534
2725
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
20-59 60-99 100-119 120-169 170-229 230-309 310-399 400-
JET SALES FORECAST BY SIZE(2005-2024)UNITS
2004 US$BILLIONS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
49
99 77
246
87
252
343
97
SIZE (SEATS)
NARROWBODY WIDEBODY
TOTAL25,082 UNITS1,251$ BILLIONS
700
Engine deliveries will be 62,300 units for jets and 1,700 units for turboprops between 2005 and 2024. They will be $340 billions and $1 billions respectively in 2004 dollar value.
The largest engine market category will be 12,000 - 35,000 lb class which is installed in A320 and B737 series, and they represent 47% (30,200 units) of total engine market in unit and 44% ($151 billions) in dollar value.
15508
72419334
30239
1654
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
T/P <12 12-35 35-65 65-100A330A380B777
A300/A310/A340B747/B757/B767
A318/A319/A320A321/A340B757/B767/B737
328JETCRJ-200/700/900EMB135/145/170/190
1900,ATR42/ 72,CN235, DHC- 8EMB-120
ENGINE DELIVERY FORECAST(2005-2024)
NUMBER OF ENGINE
NUMBER OF ENGINE
No.of ENG VALUE($B)
TURBOPROP 1,654 1JET 62,322 340TOTAL 63,976 341
0
25
1
47
151
70 72
50
75
100
125
SALES VALUE
SALES VALUE(US $ BILLIONS)
THRUST(X1000 LBS)
150
7
2. Traffic Forecast 2. 1 Regions Growth rates of traffic vary in regions because they have different geography, population and economic activity. Then, the world is divided into 10 regions as follows, excluding CIS.
2. 2 Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield The economic (GDP) growth and the decline of air fare (Yield) have sustained the passenger traffic (RPK) growth. The relationship among RPK, GDP and Yield in the past is analyzed by each region to obtain recurrent equation, and regional RPK is forecasted by using their relationship with GDP and Yield forecast results. In the calculation, regional RPK means RPK for airlines domiciled in the geographical region, and GDP of each region and average Yield of scheduled airlines in the region are used.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
CHANGE (%)
GULF WAR RPK
GDP
YIELD
RPK vs. GDP, YIELD
TERROR ATTACK
IRAQ WARSARS
8
2. 3 Economic Forecast GDP forecast in the region basically depends on the long term GDP forecast of every country conducted by Global Insight in 2004. World GDP was depressed to 1.3% growth in 2001, 1.8% growth in 2002 and 2.6% in 2003. The recovery was slower than expected, and in 2004 world GDP growth finally recovered to 3.9%, the forecasted level before the terror attack.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Source: Global Insight
WORLD REAL GDPCHANGE
YEAR
ACTUAL FORECAST
TERRORATTACK
For the long-term, economic growth rate in developed countries goes down or maintains current level while economic growth rate in developing countries is larger than the past. As a result, world real GDP will grow at 3.1% annually over the next 20 years, the same growth rate as in the past. North America and West Europe will keep moderate growth at the rate of 2.9% and 2.1% per year, which are about the same rates in the past 20 years. Japan recovered to 2% growth in 2003 after a decade long recession since early 1990’s, and it will grow at the lowest rate of 1.7% per year in the future. China will maintain high growth rate of 6.1% per year, although it is lower than the miraculous growth rate in the past. Other Asian countries (excluding China and Japan) also sustain high growth rate of 4.7% per year because of recovery from recession. Latin America, East Europe, Middle East and Africa will show higher growth rates of 3.9%, 4.1%, 3.7% and 4.3% respectively than the past because of shift to
9
liberalism (East Europe) and progress by stabilization of political situation (Latin America, Middle East and Africa).
3.9% 4.1% 4.3%
3.7%
8.6%
5.7%
2.5%
3.3%2.9%2.7%
1.4%
2.2%2.5%
3.2%3.1%
4.7%
6.1%
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
2.9%3.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
WORLD NORTHAMERICA
LATINAMERICA
WESTEUROPE
EASTEUROPE
AFRICA MIDDLEEAST
OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA
1985-2004 2005-2024
REAL GDP FORECASTGDP
GROWTHper YEAR
10
2. 4 Trend of Yield Although the main factor of the reduction in fare for the past 20 years was cost reduction by using the newer fuel efficient airplanes with advanced technology and airlines’ restructuring efforts, emergence of low-cost carrier and purchase of low-fare ticket through internet also spurred to lower the fare level.
As the circumstance of aviation business is getting harder, airline efforts of restructure will be more difficult to achieve and the change toward the low fare will not be so much as in the past. Thus, world average yield which was declined at 4.0% per year since 1984 will continue to decline but its rate, 1.3% per year for the next 20 years, is significantly lower than the past trend. Even if the new large airplane that is now developed enters into service, the impact of the airplane on the air-fare is not as big as the emergence of 747. As the yield for North American airlines is already lower than the world average, it will decline at 1.0% per year for the next 20 years. For West European airlines, yield is higher compared to other regions; it will decline at 1.5% per year in the future.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
REAL YIELD FORECAST2003 CENT/RPK
1985-2004 2005-2024N.AMERICA -2.6% -1.0%W.EUROPE -2.0% -1.5%
WORLD -4.0% -1.3%
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE （％）
FORECASTACTUAL
W.EUROPE
N.AMERICA
CALENDAR YEAR
WORLD
2. 5 Passenger Traffic (RPK) Passenger traffic (RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometer) forecast is obtained by 10 regions from relationships among RPK, GDP and Yield in each region.
These relationships can not describe unexpected affairs such as passenger decrease affected by Gulf War in 1991, 9/11 attack in 2001, Iraq War and SARS in 2003. It is noticed that the affects of 9/11 attack and the later incidents remained 4 years.
11
Since 1985, average growth of the world air passenger traffic (RPK) was 5.4% per year. World RPK will grow 4.8% per year by 2024 and it will reach 2.6 times as much as 2004 traffic to be 8,886 billion RPK in 2024.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
2623
2395
2994
874
1184
1011
914
370
FORECASTACTUAL
3479
8886
YEAR 2004
YEAR 2024
YEAR1984
1210
WORLD RPK FORECASTRPK (BILLIONS)
AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)1985-2004 2005-2024
NORTH AMERICA 4.0 4.1EUROPE 5.9 4.4ASIA/PACIFIC 7.9 6.1REST OF WORLD 4.7 4.4TOTAL WORLD 5.4 4.8
TOTAL WORLDOTHERS
ASIA/PACIFIC
EUROPE
N.AMERICA
The traffic growth for North America, which is the largest market in the world, will be 4.1% per year in next 20 years, and reaches 2.2 times larger than the current RPK, while its share in the world air traffic will decrease from 35% in 2004 to 29% in 2024. The traffic growth of Europe will be 4.4% per year for next 20 years to achieve 2.4 times as large as current level, while its share will decrease from 29% in 2004 to 26% in 2024.
2004
1%
3%
7%
4%
4%
2% 4%
35%
29%
11%
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPE
E.EUROPE
ASIA
OCEANIA
CHINA
JAPAN
M.EAST
AFRICA L.AMERICA
(29%)EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC(26%)
OTHERS
(11%)
2024
1%
4%
11%
4%
4%
2%4%
29%
26%
15%
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPEE.EUROPE
ASIA
OCEANI
CHINA
JAPAN
M.EAST
AFRICA L.AMERICA
(27%)EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC(34%)
OTHERS(9%)
12
6.0
3.1 2.9
6.3 6.6
4.6
18.5
4.84.1
4.4 4.4
3.44.1
5.0
6.4
4.04.4
7.4
5.4
7.1
4.14.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
WORLD NORTHAMERICA
LATINAMERICA
WESTEUROPE
EASTEUROPE
AFRICA MIDDLEEAST
OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA
1985-2004 2005-2024
WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTRPK GROWTH/ YEAR (%)
Asia/Pacific region, where China and NIES/ASEAN countries are the main performers, has maintained the highest traffic growth of 7.9% per year in the past 20 years. For the next 20 years, their traffic will grow at 6.1% per year to achieve 3.3 times as big as today, and its share will increase from 26% in 2004 to 34% in 2024. Asia/Pacific region will be the largest market in the world, beating North America and Europe markets, while Japan will not grow as fast as past. The traffic growth rate of Japan will be 4.1% per year. In Africa, traffic will not grow so much in spite of economical growth because air travel market is not mature yet, but the traffic growth will be 4.1% per year for the next 20 years which is larger than the past. In Middle East, traffic will decline to 4.5% from 6.3% in the past due to continuous political unrest. Latin America will maintain their traffic level of 4.4%, because of stabilization of the political situation and the economy. East Europe will grow their traffic so much as 3.4% due to the EU enlargement and the shift to westernization.
13
3. Available Seat kilometer (ASK) The required ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) is calculated by dividing RPK by passenger load factor. Therefore, the forecast of passenger load factor, which is considered to increase in the future, is necessary to obtain ASK. 3. 1 Load Factor Average load factor of world airlines increased from 63% in 1984 to 73% in 2004, especially North American and West European airlines show 75% in 2004, which is higher than the world average. These high average load factors are due to current capacity reduction to meet the high break-even load factor compelled by low fare competition, and two-digit passenger increase. Airlines will strive to improve their load factor by using revenue management system, internet booking system, and offering the same level high quality service through an alliance. However, considering the hourly and seasonal variation of passenger demand, the appropriate average load factor for a year will be 70 to 75%, because higher average load factor over 80% results in passenger spill in crowded conditions, and lower load factor means poor revenues. Therefore, average load factor of world airlines is estimated to go up to 76% until 2024.
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPE
JAPAN
AISA
WORLD
PASSENGER LOAD FACTOR FORECAST%
ACTUAL FORECAST
14
3. 2 ASK Forecast by Region World ASK has grown at the rate of 4.5% per year from 1985, which is lower by 0.8% than 5.4% of RPK growth for the same period. During 2005 to 2024, RPK will grow at 4.8% per year, then ASK will grow at 4.6% per year due to load factor improvement from 73% to 76%. Growth rate for North American and European airlines will be 3.9% and 4.2% per year respectively, less than the world average of 4.6%, and will reduce their shares in future. Asia/Pacific airlines will continue higher growth rate of 5.8%, and the region will be the largest market in the world.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)2005-2024
NORTH AMERICA 3.9EUROPE 4.2ASIA/PACIFIC 5.8REST OF WORLD 4.1TOTAL WORLD 4.6
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC
OTHERS
1573
1353
1290
526
4743
TOTAL WORLD
YEAR 2004
3397
3096
3967
1178
11638
1936
WORLD ASK FORECASTASK (BILLIONS)
CALENDAR YEAER
FORECASTACTUAL
YEAR 2024
YEAR 1984
15
3. 3 ASK Forecast by Region and Range 3. 3. 1 Range Categories Traffic growth varies by region and route distance. According to the present(*) timetable of world airlines, turboprops mainly operate under 1,000km routes, regional jets operate under 2,000km, narrow-body jets excluding regional jets operate under 4,500km, and wide-body jets mainly operate over 4,500km. Thus, the market is divided into the following 4 categories by route distance. (*): September 2003 Long-range : over 4,500km Middle-range : 2,001 to 4,500km Short-range : 1,001 to 2,000km Regional : under 1,000km
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1000
0
1100
0
1200
0
1300
0
1400
0
Turboprop
Regional Jet
Narrowbody Jet
Widebody Jet
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
TurbopropRegional JetNarrowbody JetWidebody Jet
RANGE(Km)
RANGE CATEGORY AND ASK DISTRIBUTIONASK(Millions)
LONG-RANGE
MEDIUM
SHORT
REGIONAL
SOURCE: OAG MAX Database, Sep.2003
4500
20001000
16
3. 3. 2 ASK Distribution by Region, Range and Airplane Size Categories ASK distribution by region and by range category is further divided by size of airplane. 15 size categories are assumed by the number of seats from 1 to 800 by almost 20% increment of number of seats. ASK distribution of the whole world is shown in the figure below. In regional and short range category of total world, 40-59 seats jet (CRJ200, ERJ145 etc.) and 120-169 seats jet (A320, B737 etc.) are the two major airplane sizes. In medium range category, 120-169 seats, 170-229 seats (A321, B757) of narrow-body and 230-309 seats (A300/310, B767) of wide-body are mainly operated. In long range category, the majority of operated airplanes are 310-399 seats of wide-body (A340, B777, MD-11) and 400-499 seats (B747). Future ASK distribution is obtained based on the current ASK distribution by region, range and size categories by considering the airplane size trend and ASK growth estimation.
001-019 020-
039 040-059 060-
079 080-099 100-
119 120-169 170-
229 230-309 310-
399 400-499
1-1000
1001-2000
2001-4500
4501--
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
ROUTE ASK DISTRIBUTION - TOTAL WORLD
AIRCRAFT SIZE （SEATS） RANGE (KM)
ASK (MILLIONS)
17
3. 3. 3 ASK Share Forecast by Range Based on the past ASK growth data, there are difference among the growth rates of “ASK by Range”. Then the share of “ASK by Range” is estimated first using the share trend of “ASK by Range” in past 20 years. According to the 20 years trend, long-range market has expanded its share compared with other market. One of the reasons why only the long-range market expanded was the improvement of airplane range capability and the popularization of overseas travel. In future, the long-range market will be matured as same as the other categories, and the regional market will be active again, then ASK share in each market will balance at certain constant level.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
ASK SHARE FORECAST BY RANGEASK SHARE (%)
23.9
21.3
24.6
30.1
18.9
22.5
22.0
36.6
18.5
24.0
18.9
38.6
Under 1000km
1001-2000km
2001-4500km
Over 4500km
18
3. 3. 4 ASK Forecast by Region and Range Dividing the regional ASK into range categories by using “ASK by Range” share forecast, ASK forecast by region and range can be obtained. About three fourths (3/4) of ASK in North America is for routes under 4,500km range because domestic market is widely developed in the region.
In European and Asia/Pacific market, the half of ASK will be occupied by the long-range market. In other region, total ASK is less than the half of ASK of any other region and long-range market share will be only thirty percent.
274522
267606
248745
197
423
900
272
696812
224
526
1192
286
621
294
351
783
669
1507
560
1788
464
101105
267216
133
146187
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
Under 1000Km1000-2000Km
2000-4500Km
Over 4500Km
1573
3397
1353
3096
1291
3967
526
1179
ASK（BILLIONS）
ASK FORECAST BY REGION AND RANGEYEAR 2004 4,743 ASK(B)YEAR 2024 11,638 ASK(B)
AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)2005-2024
Under 1000Km 4.31000-2000Km 4.62000-4500Km 4.4Over 4500Km 4.8TOTAL WORLD 4.6
AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)2005-2024
NORTH AMERICA 3.9EUROPE 4.2ASIA/PACIFIC 5.8REST OF WORLD 4.1TOTAL WORLD 4.6
19
4. Fleet and Delivery Forecast Based on the fleet at 2004 year-end, the future fleet ASK are calculated by region, range and size categories. And number of aircraft in future are calculated from dividing future ASK by yearly ASK per aircraft. Yearly ASK per aircraft = Seats x Aircraft km per year Aircraft km per year = Block Speed (km/hour) x Utilization (hours/year) Future Fleet ASK will be supplied by the retained aircraft and new delivery aircraft. Future Fleet ASK for new delivery aircraft will be assigned to each aircraft which consists of current aircraft in production and planned aircraft by each aircraft market share that is calculated by aircraft characteristics such as price, operating cost and range, and manufacture’s sales power. 4. 1 Improvement of Aircraft Utilization Aircraft utilization in terms of yearly aircraft flight distance has gradually increased with some fluctuation. This fluctuation was resulted from imbalance between supply and demand of aircraft to meet with traffic volume. The trend of improvement will continue at 0.4% per year for the next 20 years, and yearly jet aircraft flight distance will reach 1.799 million km in 2024. For turboprop aircraft, an improvement of the utilization is assumed as same as jet aircraft.
JET AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
CALENDAR YEAR
AIRCRAFT KMPER AIRCRAFT
PER YEAR(MIL. KM)
SOURCE : ICAO SCHEDULED DATA
ACTUAL FORECAST
AVE. GROWTH RATE0.25％ p.a.
2005-2024AVE.GROWTH RATE
0.40%
1.799
1.661
20
4. 2 Trend of Airplane Size According to passenger increase, an airline increases the frequency and/or airplane size to expand the capacity (ASK). Trends of airplane size vs. ASK growth in each region and range for the past are analyzed, and applied them to the forecast. As a total world, average seats per ASK for the long range routes(over 4,501 km) were almost constant between 1982 and 1995 and then decreased after 1995, and will not change so much in the future. Average seats per ASK for short and medium range routes and regional jet routes have a trend toward decline since 1982 and will not change either in the future. Average seat per ASK for turboprop decreased between 1982 and 1992, and then increased in spite of decrease of ASK, and expected to continue this trend of increase.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
ASKAVE.SEATFREQUENCY
Index（2004=1.0）
GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FORTURBOPROP ROUTES - WORLD
ACTUAL FORECAST
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
ASKAVE.SEATFREQUENCY
Index（2004=1.0）
GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FORUNDER 1000KM JET ROUTES - WORLD
ACTUAL FORECAST
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
ASKAVE.SEATFREQUENCY
Index（2004=1.0）
GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR1001-2000KM JET ROUTES - WORLD
ACTUAL FORECAST
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
ASKAVE.SEATFREQUENCY
Index（2004=1.0）
GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR2001-4500KM JET ROUTES - WORLD
ACTUAL FORECAST
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
ASKAVE.SEATFREQUENCY
Index（2004=1.0）
GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOROVER 4501KM JET ROUTES - WORLD
ACTUAL FORECAST
21
In North American airlines, average seat per ASK for the long-range market that is mainly transatlantic, declined during 1982 to 1992 due to appearance of long range medium size airplanes such as B767 and A310, and slightly increased later due to EIS of large twin airplanes such as B777. Average seats per ASK for medium-range and short-range which are almost US domestic routes, were declined slightly for past 20 years. For regional market, it also declined for recent years due to expansion of new regional jets, while average seat for turboprop market showed a trend of little increase.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Over 4500km Jet
2001-4500km Jet
1001-2000km Jet
Under 1000km Jet
Turboprop
AVERAGE SEATTREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - NORTH AMERICA
In West European airlines, average seat per ASK for long-range market increased during 1982 to 1992 and then decreased but is almost stable lately. Airplane size for medium-range including Middle East and Africa routes has a trend toward smaller but the trend becomes stable lately as same as long-range market. Airplane size for short-range and regional markets which cover European region still declined slightly. However airplane size for turboprop market is increasing a little.
22
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Over 4500km Jet
2001-4500km Jet
1001-2000km Jet
Under 1000km Jet
Turboprop
AVERAGE SEATTREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - WEST EUROPE
In Asian airlines, airplane size is larger than other regions because the routes are concentrated in the major cities of each country. Airplane size for long-range market, which includes Pacific and European routes, was increased during 1982 to 1995 and shows a decline trend lately. But introduction of a new large airplane such as A380 will reverse the trend to increase. Airplane size of medium/short-range market shows a trend of decline for past 20 years. In regional market, airplane sizes of jet and turboprop are almost stable but they are slightly increasing in last 10 years.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Over 4500km Jet2001-4500km Jet1001-2000km JetUnder 1000km JetTurboprop
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - ASIAAVERAGE SEAT
23
4. 3 Retirement of Existing Fleet The average life of passenger jets scattered over 20 to 29 years for the past years, which includes retired passenger jets due to freighter conversion. However, 90% of existing jets were manufactured after 1960, and their average life is about 28 years. Hush-kitted airplane has been extended its life 5 to 10 years more according to the trend. However, hush-kitted airplanes will retire in the next 20 years because of incompatibility with the latest noise restriction, and then their extended life will effect only to yearly demand but have little effect on total demand. Model curve for a passenger jet retirement is based on a standard deviation curve derived from the retirement data during 1960 to 1999 period. Conversion from passenger jets to freighters were conducted between 10 to 25 years of age and converted freighters average age would be 34 years, that means they would be used until the average age of 40 years, if they do not encounter any accident. Assuming average life of 28 years, 7,720 units (54%) of existing 14,290 jet over 20-seat will retire by 2024. About 80% of existing 100 - 119 seat jets including old B737-200 and DC-9-30 will disappear within the period. It is the 120-169 seat category that the number of aircraft retired is the largest among all seat categories. 3,270 units of existing 6,050 including such as old 727-200 and MD-80 will retire for the next 20 years. Over 170 seat jets and 20 - 59 seat regional jets which are relatively young, will not retire so much.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
YEAR END
20-59 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
100-119 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
170-229 SEATER
230-309 SEATER
310-399 SEATER
400-499 SEATER
JET AIRPLANE RETIREMENT
UNITS
400-499 640 187 453310-399 1047 644 403230-309 1241 441 800170-229 1230 567 663120-169 6054 2787 3267100-119 1436 282 115460-99 822 349 47320-59 1822 1318 504
14292 6575 7717
2005-2024Retirement
2024Year-end
2004Year-end
TOTAL
NAR
RO
WBO
DY
WID
EBO
DY
AVERAGE RETIREMENT: 28 YEARS.
24
4. 4 Jet Airplane Backlog At the end of 2004, jet airplane backlog for over 30-seater including freighter stand at 3,340 units, of which 2,570 units are passenger jet and this is reduced by 19% from 3,150 at the end of 2003. 85% (2,190 units) of passenger jets are scheduled to delivery to airlines until 2009. 77% (1,970 units) of backlog are narrow-bodies which include 500 regional jets. In this forecast, these backlogs will be delivered to the regions where airlines placed firm orders.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TBD
500-599 seats400-499 seats310-399 seats230-309 seats170-229 seats120-169 seats100-119 seats80-99 seats60-79 seats40-59 seats20-39 seats
JET AIRPLANE BACKLOG AND ESTIMATED DELIVERY - 2004 Year-end
DELIVERY YEAR
UNITS
SOURCE : Airclaim CASETOTAL 2,566 Units
763
560
399
277
192
79 66
25 40 30 8 1
12
25
4. 5 Stored Airplanes Historically, there are stored jets in the airline owned fleet, and the number of the stored aircraft is about 6% of the airplane in service. At the end of 2001, the stored jets were increased to 14% (1750 jets) because airlines grounded the older and inefficient airplanes from the services to adjust the capacity of the traffic decrease after the 9/11 terror attack. They have been going back to the service gradually due to traffic recovery, but 1,210 units (8%) are still stored at the end of 2004. The ratio of stored aircrafts is considered to return to the level of about 6%, normal stored aircraft ratio.
1060611155
1168112546 12510
1307413540
14292
871860601573
17451205
1687 1632
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
IN SERVICE STORED
STORED PASSENGER JETS
YEAR END
NUMBER OFAIRCRAFT
5.6% 5.4%7.4% 6.9%
13.9 12.9% 12.1%8.4%
26
4. 6 Current and Future Airplane Model 4. 6. 1 Jet Airplane The current and future airplane models are assumed as follows considering current new planned aircrafts under development.
A/C Size Manufacturer RangeCapability
SalesTerm Comments
20-39 328JET 30 (1) F.DORNIER/AvCraft RG -2008SEATS ERJ-135 37 (1) EMBRAER RG 1999-
MJ-35 34 (1) JAPAN RG 2009-40-59 ERJ-140 44 (1) EMBRAER RG -2004SEATS ERJ-145 50 (1) EMBRAER RG 1997-
CRJ-440 44 (1) EMBRAER RG -2004CRJ-200 50 (1) BOMBARDIER RG 1992-MJ-50 50 (1) JAPAN RG 2010-
60-79 CRJ-700 70 (1) BOMBARDIER RG 2001-SEATS ERJ-170 70 (1) EMBRAER RG 2003-
ERJ-175 78 (1) EMBRAER RG 2004-ARJ21-700 85 (1) CHINA RG 2008-ARJ21-900 99 (1) CHINA RG 2010-
80-99 ERJ-190 98 (1) EMBRAER RG 2005-SEATS ERJ-195 108 (1) EMBRAER RG 2006-
CRJ-900 90 (1) BOMBARDIER RG 2002-RRJ-95 95 (1) SUKHOI RG 2008-
100-119 C110 99 (2) BOMBARDIER SR/MR 2010-SEATS C130 119 (2) BOMBARDIER SR/MR 2011-
A318 115 (2) AIRBUS SR 2003-B717 106 (2) BOEING SR/MR -2006B737-600 108 (2) BOEING SR/MR 1998-
120-169 A319 124 (2) AIRBUS SR/MR 1996-SEATS A320 150 (2) AIRBUS SR/MR 1988-
B737-700 127 (2) BOEING SR/MR 1998-B737-800 160 (2) BOEING SR/MR 1998-
170-229 A321 180 (2) AIRBUS SR/MR 1993-B737-900 177 (2) BOEING SR/MR 2001-
SEATS B757-200 186 (2) BOEING SR/MR -2004B757-300 186 (2) BOEING SR/MR -2004
230-309 B767-200/200ER 181 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR -2006SEATER B767-300/300ER 218 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR -2008
B767-400ER 245 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR -2010B787-3 296 (2) BOEING SR/MR 2010-B787-8 223 (3) BOEING MR/LR 2008-B787-9 259 (3) BOEING MR/LR 2011-A300-600 231 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR -2010A310-300 166 (3) AIRBUS MR/LR -2004A330-200 256 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR/LR -2010A350-800 245 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2010-
310-399 A330-300 295 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR/LR -2012SEATER A350-900 275 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2012-SEATS A340-300 295 (3) AIRBUS MR/LR 1993-
A340-500 313 (3) AIRBUS MR/LR 2002-A340-600 380 (3) AIRBUS MR/LR 2002-B777-200/ER/LR 305 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR 1995-B777-300/ER 368 (3) BOEING SR/MR 1998-
400-499 B747-400/ER 416 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR -2010SEATER B747DV 430 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR 2010-
B747ADV ST 504 (3) BOEING SR/MR/LR 2012-Over 500 A380-800 555 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2006-SEATS A380-900 656 (3) AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2010-
Seats(cｌａｓｓ)
NA
RR
OW
-BO
DY
JE
TW
IDE
-BO
DY
JE
T
Airplane Model
27
4. 6. 2 Turboprop Airplane The turboprops now in production are assumed as future airplanes as follows, because no new turboprops are to be developed.
A/C Size Manufacturer RangeCapability
SalesTerm Comments
15-19 BE1900 19 (1) RAYTHEON RGSEATS20-39 DHC8-100 30 (1) BOMBARDIER RGSEATS40-59 DHC8-300 50 (1) BOMBARDIER RGSEATS ATR-42 42 (1) ATR RG60-79 ATR-72 70 (1) ATR RGSEATS DHC8-400 70 (1) BOMBARDIER RG
Seats(cｌａｓｓ)Airplane Model
28
4. 7 Jet share in small airplane market In small airplane market where regional jets and turboprops are both in service, turboprops are normally used on the short-haul routes where no competitions with other airlines exists because of better economic efficiency of turboprop, while regional jets are operated on the routes with competitions with other airlines and are longer than 1,000km where passengers prefer jet aircrafts. In USA and Europe, regional jet operation is rapidly increasing in recent years by the shift from turboprops and 100-seater jets. In this section, recent order of small airplane is analyzed and the share of jet and turboprop order in the category is obtained in order to forecast the fleet.
4. 7. 1 Recent 20-79 seat class jet share Share of turboprop order was more than 70% until 1997 when there were huge ERJ145 orders, then, the regional jet shared more than 70% of total order after 1997. SAAB and BAe withdrew from turboprop production and Fokker and Fairchild Dornier were forced to bankrupt, and now ATR, CASA and Bombardier are only continuing to produce ATR42/72, CN235 and DHC-8 respectively. In future, turboprops remain in the limited market, and regional jets will increase their share.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004CALENDAR YEAR
SHARE%
JET SHARE IN 20-79 SEATS MARKET
Turboprop
Jet
ATR42/72CN235, DHC8
DO328EMB120, F50
SAAB340/2000
CRJ200/440/700ERJ135/145/170
F70, RJ70FD328JET
4. 7. 2 Jet share in Fleet forecast According to the data in the previous section, jet airplanes were recently selected 70% to 90% of total small airplane orders.
In our forecast, a demand from the jet operated routes and 60% of the demand from current turboprop market is filled by jet aircrafts.
29
4. 8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast 4. 8. 1 World Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast While world traffic (RPK) grew 2.9 times to 3,479 billion passenger kilometer during past 20 years, the world jet fleet increased 2.4 times to 14,290 units in 2004. Future jet fleet is forecasted to increase to 31,660 units until 2024, which is 2.2 times of the existing fleet, due to increment of load factor and improvement of aircraft utilization, while world traffic will grow 2.6 times to 8,886 billion passenger kilometer for the same period.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
JET FLEET FORECAST
20-59SEATER
60-99SEATER
100-119SEATER
OVER 400 SEATER
120-169SEATER
170-229SEATER
230-309SEATER
310-399SEATER
UNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST
31657
14292
22050
6056
9491RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
328JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200
CRJ700/900
717,737-600A318
ERJ170/190
737-700/800A319/A320
757A310
A350-800
A340
777
747XA380
727-200,737-300/400A320,MD80/MD90
DC8,707
747
DC10,MD11L1011
767
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9
A321A300
A350-900
747
A310A300
737-900
767787A330-300
A330-200
C110/130
ARJ21,RRJ95
18221318
8221436
6054
2787
1230567
1241441
1047644 640
2923
3819 4063
6430
18242764
534349 282 187
2725
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
1822
4241
822
4168
1436
4345
6054
9217
1230
2391
1241
3205
1047
3369
640721
20-59Seats
60-99Seats
100-119Seats
120-169Seats
170-229Seats
230-309Seats
310-399Seats
Over 400Seats
TOTAL 2003 YEAR-END: 14,292 2023 YEAR-END: 31,657 2004-2023 DELIVERIES:
25,082
WIDEBODY JETNARROWBODY JET
REGIONAL JET
UNIT
30
By seat categories, the 120 - 169 seats market of which existing fleet is 6,100 units, is projected 9,200 units and accounts for the largest fleet of the total market. This market will be shared by A319/A320 and B737 families. The regional jet market of under 99 seats has a demand of replacement for turboprops and a demand for transferred routes from mainline by appearance of more economical regional jets. The 20 - 59 seats market, which is mainly 1,800 CRJs and ERJs are operated now, will need 4,200 units until 2024. The 60 - 99 seats market, which has some developing airplanes now, will need 4,200 units until 2024 compared with 800 units now. The 100 - 119 seats, including B717 and shrink derivatives such as A318 and B737-600, is considered as a minimum size market for mainlines. The fleet of this market is projected to grow to 4,300 jets in 2024 from 1,400 jets in 2004. The 170 - 229 seats market, which is the largest size category as a narrow-body jet, has a potential demand for replacement of the biggest market of 120 - 169 seats now. The fleet is expected to 2,400 in 2024 from 1,200 in 2004. In the wide-body market, the fleet of 230 - 309 seats such as B767 class is 1,200 and the fleet of 310 - 399 seats such as B777 and A340 is 1,000 in 2004. These airplane markets are expected to grow as a major airplane for major domestic routes and international routes, and 230-309 seat market fleet will grow to 3,200 unit in 2024, especially the 310 - 399 seats is projected to grow faster to 3,400 unit from current 1000 units for replacement of existing B747 and new market for long-range routes. The large airplanes over 400 seats including B747 are mainly operated for Pacific routes and Asia - Europe routes. The fleet for this market will be projected to grow slowly to 700 in 2024 from 600 units in 2004.
Aircraft Size(Seats) Aircraft 2004 year-end
Fleet2024 year-end
Fleet2005-2024Deliveries
20-59 328JET、CRJ-200/440ERJ-135/140/145, MJET 1,822 4,241 2,923
60-99 ARJ21, CRJ700/900, RRJ,ERJ-170/175/190/195 822 4,168 3,819
100-119 A318、B717/B737-600C110/130 1,436 4,345 4,063
120-169 A319/A320B737-700/800 6,054 9,217 6,430
170-229 A321, B737-900, B757 1,230 2,391 1,824
230-309 A300-600,A330-200, A350-800B767-300/400 , B787 1,241 3,205 2,764
310-399A330-300, A350-900A340-300/500/600B777-200/300
1,047 3,369 2,725
400-499 B747-400, B747ADV 640 518 331
Over 500 A380-800/900 - 203 203
TOTAL 14,292 31,657 25,082
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
31
4. 8. 2 Jet Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Region North American airlines are now operating 42% (6,000 units) of worldwide fleet and will need 11,500 airplanes in 2024. They will need 8,600 new airplanes delivery (34% of total deliveries) between 2005 and 2024, which are mainly narrow-bodies for hub and spoke system in this region. European airlines will increase their fleet from 3,800 units in 2004 to 8,100 units in 2024 and they will need 6,300 airplanes shared 25% of total deliveries for this period. Though Asia/Pacific airlines are operating only 19% (2,800 airplanes) of the world fleet at present, they will operate 8,100 airplanes in 2024 caused by higher traffic growth rate than the others. Total deliveries in this region for the next 20 years will be 6,900 units (27% of total delivery) more than the delivery for European airlines, and nearly half of total deliveries of the region will be wide-body airplanes. They will need large airplanes for long-range and 60% (320units) of total world deliveries for over 400 seat market (530 units) will be required by this region.
2004 YEAR-END
42%19%
26%
13%
TOTAL 14,292 UNITS
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC
OTHERS
2024 YEAR-END
26%
26%
36%
12%
TOTAL 31,657 UNITS
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC
OTHERS
29641801
1247563
8570
63356881
3296
5956
3754
2771
1811
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
RETAINED
JET FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGIONUNITS
NEW DELIVERY
11534
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
8136 8128
3859
TOTAL FLEET2004 YEAR-END 14,2922024 YEAR-END 31,657 2005-2024 DELIVERIES
25,082
32
1383320
865 562 415
255
1514
385
1223832
599
531
276
1299
934
422
499
2491
3307
1742
2629
1135
2216
686
1065
651
908
332
623
612
248
389
1004
246
671
371
1097
235
433
704
286
704
387
1454
507
4871
2399
9587207
1613
86161
204
170
352
122 421
69
93
85
167
52
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
OVER 400 SEATS
310-399 SEATS
230-309 SEATS
170-229 SEATS
120-169 SEATS
100-119 SEATS
60-99 SEATS
20-50 SEATS
JET FLEET FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE
11534
5956
3754
8136
2771
8128
1811
3859
UNIT
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
TOTAL FLEET2004 YEAR-END 14,2922024 YEAR-END 31,657
1359653 402
1330
1083820
592
1479
1214
474
2229
1787
1643
769
650
434
526
866
578
969
519 1203
315
510
895
214351
590
413
67
85
67
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
OVER 400 SEATS
310-399 SEATS
230-309 SEATS
170-229 SEATS
120-169 SEATS
100-119 SEATS
60-99 SEATS
20-50 SEATS
JET DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE
8570
6335
6881
3300
2005-2024 DELIVERIES25,082
33
4. 8. 3 Yearly Delivery Forecast Yearly jet delivery experienced big up and down from 400 to 1200 units per year caused by traffic growth variation, airline's financial condition and a long-term fluctuation in airplane order number. In future, delivery will upward again to 1,600 units gradually after delivery downward under 1,000 units around 2005. Average yearly deliveries for the next 20 years will be forecasted as 1,250 airplanes. This projection does not consider manufacturer's production capability, but according to the actual delivery of 1,200 units in 2001, a production of 1,600 units a year is not an unrealistic value.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Over 400 Seats
310-399 Seats
230-309 Seats
170-229 Seats
120-169 Seats
100-119 Seats
80-99 Seats
60-79 Seats
40-59 Seats
20-39 Seats
YEARLY JET DELIVERY FORECASTUNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST
34
4. 8. 4 Sales Forecast of Jet The 25,100 jet airplanes deliveries to the world airlines are expected to reach $1,251 billion (2004 US$) during next 20 years. The largest market (26%) in unit will be 120 - 169 seats category, but in dollar value, 310 - 399 seats category will be the largest (27%).
The portion of wide-body airplane will be only a quarter of total number of deliveries, but sales values of wide-body will be more than half of total sales.
DELIVERY SHARE400-2%
310-39911%
230-30911%
170-2297%
20-5912%
60-9915%
100-11916%
120-16926%
TOTAL 25,082
SALES SHARE
120-16920%
170-2297%230-309
20%
310-39927%
100-1196%
60-998%400-
8%
20-594%
$1,251 BILLIONS
4063
2764
1824
6430
2923
3819
534
2725
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
20-59 60-99 100-119 120-169 170-229 230-309 310-399 400-
JET SALES FORECAST BY SIZE(2005-2024)UNITS
2004 US$BILLIONS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
49
99 77
246
87
252
343
97
SIZE (SEATS)
NARROWBODY WIDEBODY
TOTAL25,082 UNITS1,251$ BILLIONS
700
35
4. 9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast 4. 9. 1 World Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast The number of passenger turboprop airplanes over 15-seat are 3,900 units in world airlines at the end of 2004. It is 1.5 times of the fleet size in 1984, but the number of turboprops in service is rapidly decreasing from peak during 1997 to 2000. The current routes operated by turboprop are almost categorized to the regional market which includes shorter than 1,000km routes, and the traffic is projected to grow 2.4 times of current traffic at growth rate of 4.5% (slightly lower than 4.8% of total market) per year for the next 20 years. But many of over 20 seats turboprops will be replaced by regional jets, therefore the fleet of turboprops will shrink to 1,700 until 2024. However, according to our airline survey in Europe and USA, strong demand for turboprops still exists on routes shorter than 500 km and terrain routes such as isolated islands.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
TURBOPROP FLEET FORECASTUNITS
15-19 SEATS
20-39 SEATS
40-59 SEATS
OVER60 SEATS
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
3914
1694
2691
2926
4401ACTUAL FORECAST
JET STREAM31, DHC6BE99/MOD1900,METRO,EMB110
JET STREAM41,CN235SD330/360SAAB340
748,F27/F50SAAB2000DHC8-300
DHC8-300
FD328,DHC8-100EMB-120
FD228,MOD1900
ATR72,DHC8-400
In the current fleet composition, the smallest 15-19 seat-category is the largest (1,600 units) in number of airplanes and the largest seat-category over 60 is the smallest (400 units) in number. However, seat size of turboprop trends to grow slightly and shifts to larger turboprops, the number of airplanes in each category is getting close to each other around 300 to 500 unit. The 15 - 19 seats market is the only viable market for the turboprop airplane. This market is expected to the largest market for the turboprops because it has no
36
regional jet. But current turboprop in production is Beech 1900 only, therefore some of this market will be replaced by 20 - 39 seats airplanes and inexpensive business jets. The 20 - 39 seats market will be reduced to half of current market size because they are replaced by larger turboprops and regional jets. The 40 - 59 seats market will be also reduced to half of present level because of the shift to regional jets, in despite of the shift from smaller category. In the over 60 seats market, only about 400 turboprops are operated now and DHC8-400 high speed turboprop entered into services in addition to ATR42. The fleet of this market is only for the routes of no competition with regional jets, and it is projected to grow slightly to 550 in 2024. Assuming the average life of a turboprop is 28 years by the past trend, 78% or 3,050 units of the current fleet will be retired during the forecast period. As a result, the deliveries of the new turboprops will be 830 units between 2005 and 2024.
1637
224
945
232
920
212412
199
64 115302 346
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
1637
288
945
347
920
514
15-19 Seats 20-39 Seats 40-59 Seats
TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECASTUNITS
TOTAL FLEET2004 YEAR-END: 3,9142024 YEAR-END: 1,6942005-2024 DELIVERIES
827
412
545
60-79 Seats 4. 9. 2 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast by Region Number of turboprop in operation in 2004 are shared 29% (1,120 units) in North America, 23% (900 units) in Europe, 19% (760 units) in Asia/Pacific and 29% (1,130 units) in rest of world.
In 2024, ratio of operated turboprops will be 26% (450 units) in North America, 26% (440 units) in Europe, 28% (470 units) in Asia/Pacific, to reach about the same
37
ratio in three regions. Among the 830 units of the newly delivered airplane between 2005 and 2024, Asia/Pacific where traffic grows faster than others will require 310 units (37%) , North America and Western Europe will require 160 units (19%) and 170 units (20%) respectively and rest of world will require 190 units (23%).
282 268160 157
170306
188
1134
758
898
1124
163
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024 2004 2024
RETAINED
TURBOPROPS FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGIONUNITS
NEW DELIVERY
445
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
438466
345
TOTAL FLEET2004 YEAR-END 3,9142024 YEAR-END 1,694 2005-2024 DELIVERIES
827
Demand for less than 39 seats is a little more than 50% in North America, while
in Europe and in Asia/Pacific, the ratio is about 10% and demand for more then 40 seats is larger.
32 15 14
51
2026 18
50
47
127
78
30
100
138
78
30
100
200
300
400
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
UNITSTURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION
163 170
306
188
15-19 SEATS20-39 SEATS
40-59 SEATS
OVER 60 SEATS
2005-2024 DELIVERIES827
38
The yearly delivery recorded over 450 units in 1990, and the average yearly delivery was more than 200 units before 1998, and then decreased rapidly to less than 50 units per year in 2004. From now on, yearly delivery will maintain as little as 50 units, because many turboprops will be replaced by regional jets.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Over 60 Seats40-59 Seats20-39 Seats15-19 Seats
YEARLY TURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECASTUNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST
4. 9. 3 Sales Forecast of Turboprop The 830 turboprop deliveries to the world airlines are expected to reach $11.8 billion (2004 US$) between 2005 and 2024. Compared with the jet market, the turboprop deliveries are 3% in unit and only 1% in sales value. The over 60 seats category will be the largest market in unit, and required 350 units which are 42% of total turboprop deliveries. The 40 - 59 seats market will be required 300 units (37%), the 20 - 39 seats will be 120 units (14%), and the 15 - 19 seats will be 60 units (8%). The less than 39 seats market will shrink due to the shift to larger turboprops and regional jets. In sales values, the over 60 seats which has the highest airplane price, will be $6.1 billions or 52% of total sales of turboprops. The next largest market will be about $4.2 billions or 36% for the 40 - 59 seats. The 20 - 39 seats and 15 - 19 seats will be $1.3 billions (11%) and $0.2 billions (2%) of total, respectively.
39
64
115
346302
0
200
400
600
800
15-19 20-39 40-59 Over 60SIZE (SEATS)
TURBOPROPS SALES FORECAST(2005-2024)UNITS
2004 US$BILLIONS
0.2
1.3
4.2
6.1
0
4
6
2
TOTAL827 UNITS
$11.8 BILLIONS
40
5. Engine Market Forecast The engine delivery is estimated from the installed engines for new airplane delivery and the ratio of spare engines which is assumed 15% of installed engines. The spare engines for existing fleet are not included in this forecast. 5. 1 Engine Category and Their Applications Engines by thrust category and their applications are shown in table below.
THRUSTCATEGORY
(x1000 lb)ENGINE NAME MANU-
FACTURERTHRUST(x1000 lb) APPLICATION (NO. OF ENGINE)
65 - 115 CF6-80E1 GE/SNECMA 67.5 - 72 A330(2)GE90 GE/SNECMA 75 - 115 B777(2)GP7000 GE/PW 76.5 - 81.5 A380(4)PW4074/4084 PW 74 - 84 B777(2)PW4168 PW 68 A330(2)TRENT 700 RR 71 A330(2)TRENT 800 RR 75 - 95 B777(2)TRENT 900 RR 68 - 84 A380(4)
53 - 70 B787(2), A350(2)、B747ADV(4)35 - 65 CF6-50 GE/SNECMA 46.5 - 54 B747(4), A300(2)
CF6-80A GE/SNECMA 48 - 50 B767(2), A310(2)CF6-80C2 GE/SNECMA 52.5 - 61.5 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), MD-11(3)JT9D PW 43.6 - 56 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2)PW4000 PW 52 - 68 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), A330(2),
MD-11(3)RB211-524G/H RR 58 - 60.6 B747-400(4), B767-300(2)TRENT 500 RR 56 A340-500/600(4)TRENT 900 RR 53 - 70 B787(2), A350(2)、B747ADV(4)PW2000 PW 38.2 - 41.7 B757(2)RB211-535C/E4 RR 37.4 - 43.1 B757(2)
12 - 35 V2500 IAE 22 - 30 A319(2), A320(2), A321(2), MD-90(2)CFM56 CFM INT'L 18.5 - 34 B737-300/400/500(2),
B737-600/700/800/900(2)A318(2), A319(2),A320(2), A321(2), A340-200/300(4)C110/130(2)
JT8D-200 PW 18.5 - 21 MD-80(2)PW6000 PW 20 - 23 A318(2)BR700 BMW/RR 18.5 - 22 717(2)
-12 CF34 GE 8.6 - 9.2 CRJ-100/200(2), CRJ-700(2), CRJ-900(2),ERJ-170(2), ERJ-190(2), ARJ21(2), RRJ(2)
AE3007 ALLISON 7.2 - 12 ERJ-135(2), ERJ-140(2), ERJ-145(2)PW300 PWC 4.2 - 5.7 328JET(2)CT7 GE 1700 - 1940 SHP CN235(2), SAAB340(2), L610(2)PW100 PWC 2000 - 5000 SHP ATR42(2), ATR72(2),
DHC8-100(2)/300(2)/400(2), Do328(2)EMB120(2)
TPE 331 GARRETT 715 SHP CASA212(2), Metro(2), Do228(2)
Turboprop
41
5. 2 Engine Deliveries Forecast Engine deliveries will be 62,300 units for jet and 1,700 units for turboprop between 2005 and 2024. They will be $340 billions and $1 billions in 2004 dollar value respectively. The largest engine market category in unit will be 30,200 for 12,000 - 35,000 lb class which is installed in A320 and B737 series, and they represent 47% of total engine market. Next large market category will be 15,500 units for less than 12,000 lb class. 35,000 – 65,000 lb class installed in A300/A310/A340/A350 and B747/B757/B767/B787 will be 9,300 units, and the largest thrust class of 65,000 – 100,000 lb installed in A330/A380 and B777 will be 7,200 units. In sales value, 12,000 - 35,000 lb class will be also the largest of $151 billions, and 65,000 – 100,000 lb class will be the next largest and $72 billions. 35,000 – 65,000 lb class will be $70 billions. Less than 12,000 lb class except turboprop will be the smallest market of $47 billions.
15508
72419334
30239
1654
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
T/P <12 12-35 35-65 65-100A330A380B777
A300/A310/A340B747/B757/B767
A318/A319/A320A321/A340B757/B767/B737
328JETCRJ-200/700/900EMB135/145/170/190
1900,ATR42/ 72,CN235, DHC- 8EMB-120
ENGINE DELIVERY FORECAST(2005-2024)
NUMBER OF ENGINE
NUMBER OF ENGINE
No.of ENG VALUE($B)
TURBOPROP 1,654 1JET 62,322 340TOTAL 63,976 341
0
25
1
47
151
70 72
50
75
100
125
SALES VALUE
SALES VALUE(US $ BILLIONS)
THRUST(X1000 LBS)
150
42
6. Forecast Methodology The methodology adapted is a regionally and range segmented top-down approach and is not reliant on the fleet plan of individual airlines. World fleet forecast flow is divided into 3 categories, passenger forecast, available seats forecast and fleet forecast, as shown in chart below. Passenger forecast by region depends on GDP and yields of each region. ASK forecast required to carry passengers forecasted depends on current fleet composition and routes analysis by range, seats category, taking account of current aircraft retirement. ASK distribution by aircraft size and range category in future are calculated by using the base year's ideal ASK distribution and the growth rates of ASK. Then, shift of aircraft size is considered to link with ASK growth in each segment. The required ASK will be filled by ASK of retained fleet considered with the retirement, and the rest will be delivery ASK. After the ASK of backlog aircraft to be delivered will be excluded from the delivery ASK, the rest will be new delivery (open) ASK. At last, the open ASK will be assigned to new aircraft which will be available in the forecast year, and suitable in size and range. At the same time, it will be also considered the market share of the aircraft manufacturer. And number of new aircraft will be calculated from the ASK assigned.
43
The Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2005 - 2024 can be found on the internet at: http//www.jadc.or.jp/. For more information and questions about this document, contact [email protected] by e-mail.
This document has been prepared with financial support from The Japan Keirin Association. Published by Japan Aircraft Development Corporation Hibiya Kokusai Bldg. 7F, 2-2-3, Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0011, Japan TEL: Tokyo (03) 3503-3212 FAX: Tokyo (03) 3504-0368
