World Transport Policy & Practice · Engineering, Delft, The Netherlands. Mikel Murga, Leber Planification e Ingenieria S ... Spain. P ublisher Eco-Logica Ltd., 53 Derwent Road, Lancaster,

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World Transport Pol icy & Practice

Contents Volume 5, Number 2, 1999

©1999 Eco-Logica L td ISSN 1352-7614

Editor

John Whi telegg, Professor of Environmental Studies, Liverpool John Moores Universi ty, ClarenceStreet, Liverpool , L3 5UG, U.K.

Editorial BoardEr ic Br i tton, Managing Director, EcoPlan International , The Centre for Technology & SystemsStudies, 10 rue Joseph Bara, 75006 Paris, France.Paul Tranter , Senior Lecturer, School of Geography & Oceanography, Universi ty Col lege,Austral ian Defence Force Academy, Canberra ACT 2600, Austral ia.John Howe, Professor of Transportation Engineering & Head of Infrastructural Engineering &Physical Planning, International Insti tute for Infrastructural , Hydraul ic & EnvironmentalEngineering, Del ft, The Netherlands.Mikel Murga , Leber Plani fication e Ingenieria S.A., Apartado 79, 48930-Las Arenas, Bizkaia,Spain.

Publ isher

Eco-Logica Ltd., 53 Derwent Road, Lancaster, LA1 3ES, U.K.Telephone +44 1524 63175 Fax +44 1524 848340E-mai l : Editorial j .whi [email protected] Subscriptions [email protected]

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Pascal Desmond (Business M anager), Chris Beacock (Production). Please contact Pascal Desmond([email protected]) for sample copies, orders and subscriptions, reprints and copyrightpermissions.

2 Abstracts & keywords

3 Editorial

4 City Logistics: A Contribution to Sustainable Development? - A contribution to thediscussion on solutions to freight transpor t problems in urban areasPeter Löffler

11 Where is Stranraer now? Space-time convergence re-visitedGordon Clark

18 An appraisal of decreased depth of production on traffic demand: development of a modelHelmut Holzapfel and Richard Vahrenkamp

21 Scenarios for Transboundary Air Pollutants from the Transport Sector in EuropeGary Haq and Peter Bailey

28 The Effects of Strategic Network Changes on TrafficSteve Purnell, Jillian Beardwood and John Elliott

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Abstracts and keywords

City Logistics: A Contribution to SustainableDevelopment? – A Contribution to the Discussionon Solutions to Freight T ransport Problems inU rban Areas

Peter LöfflerKeywords: Freight logistics, sustainable development,urban transpor tThe increasing amount of freight transport by road in urbanareas of industrial ised countries induces serious social andeconomic impacts through local and global environmentaldeterioration. Sustainable development demands that theseeffects be reduced substantial ly. The concept of Ci tyLogistics seems to offer an ideal method to decrease thenumber of trucks wi thout harming economic performance.However, i ts current use is restricted in a number of ways.In particular, large-scale implementation of Ci ty Logisticswould require di fferent economic incentives for privateactors.

Where is Stranraer now? Space-time convergencere-v isited

Gordon ClarkKeywords : London, rai lways, pol icy, speed, space-timeconvergenceThis paper revisi ts the concept of space-time convergencein the context of data on In terCi ty rai l journey times in theUK between 1914 and 1998. The paper concludes that theconcept of convergence needs to be considerably refined inboth h istorical and geographical senses in order to ful lyrepresent long-run trends in the adoption of new transporttechnologies. The paper considers the geographical andpol icy impl ications of the quest for speed, particularly forthe role of London.

An appraisal of decreased depth of production ontraffic demand: development of a model

Helmut Holzapfel and Richard VahrenkampKeywords: Europe, freight, production model , theoryIn recent discussions about future traffic growth in Europe,it is generally assumed that rates of increase, especially ofroad freight traffic, are overestimated. Sometimes i t isvigorously denied that the ever increasing division of labourwi th just-in-time production processes has an influence ontransport w orth mention ing at al l . These points areaddressed in an attempt to seek an understanding of thedynamics of the division of labour and the growth of traffic.A theoretical model is produced w hich lead to deductions.

Scenarios for T ransboundary Air Pol lutants fromthe T ransport Sector in Europe

Gary Haq and Peter Bai leyKeywords: Business-as-usual , Europe, envi ronmental lysustainable transpor t, long-range transboundary ai rpol lution, transpor t scenar ios, technology, UN/ECE regionScenarios for the European transport sector are used toexamine the impact on transboundary air pol lution of arange of vehicle emission standards, technologies anddemand management measures and to produce estimates ofnational emissions in the UN/ECE region. This paperdemonstrates the possible reductions in emissions ofni trogen oxides and volati le organic compounds whichcould be achieved using di fferent pol icy instruments.

T he Effects of Strategic Network Changes onT raffic

Steve Purnel l , Ji l l ian Beardwood and John El l iottKeywords: cost-benefi t analysis, infrastructure supply,London, traffic generation, transpor t demand, trunk roadsThe Department of Transport’s Counsel at the Publ ic Inquiryinto a section of the North Circular Road in 1985 stated that“… the proper way to advance the [GLC] case is to put theirevidence before the Secretary of State, to put their evidencebefore the Government and say “This is the resul t of ourresearch; your pol icy for roads should be amendedaccordingly - at least i t should be reconsidered on the basisof this evidence’.” In response to th is recommendation theGLC presented this paper to the DoT. The Secretary of State,Nicholas Ridley, responded: “No attempt has been madeei ther to assess the benefi ts w hich addi tional traffic mightbring to the communi ty as a whole or to evaluate i ts adverseeffects” … “we have no intention of bui lding urban motor-ways” … “the [Government does not] disregard the viewsof Londoners”.

The paper was presented to the Transport Committee ofthe GLC on 10th July 1985. The Committee recommended i tspubl ication on a wide basis. Soon after, the GLC wasabol ished despi te approximately three-quarters ofLondoners canvassed being opposed.

This paper was tested and accepted by the StandingAdvisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment in their1994 report “Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic” .The Government accepted the SACTRA report.

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Editorial

This is a rather unusual issue of WTPP. We aredevoting much more space than usual to apiece of w ork by El l iott, Beardwood andPurnell in 1985 which is of considerablehistorical , professional and pol i ticalimportance.The work presents very clear evidence thatbui lding new roads leads to huge increases intraffic on the transport corridor that the newroad is part of. Our sophisticated readers wi l lsay that this is old news and w e knew thatanyway. Sadly most parts of the w orld are sti l lplanning and bui ld ing roads on the premisethat this sel f-evident effect is not present. It issti l l the pol icy of local authori ties in the UK(e.g. Cumbria County Counci l and LancashireCounty Counci l ) to bu i ld new roads on theassumption that this effect is not present. It iscertainly the bel ief of most pol i ticians inBri tain that this effect is ei ther not present oris so smal l that i t is not worth worrying about.

Global ly the si tuation is worse. Bri tish andUS transport and engineering consul tanciesare pushing new roads, new highway capaci tyand expensive infrastructure projects based onthe i l lusion that these projects wi l l solvetraffic problems. This is happening inAustral ia, Israel , Calcutta and in Hungary.

The work appeared in 1985. It wassubmi tted to central government at that timein an attempt to influence the growingcommitment to large scale road bui lding,especial ly in London. The reaction ofgovernment at that time i l lustrates the severi tyof another transport di fficul ty. The h ighqual i ty scienti fic information was not on lyignored, i t w as deemed to be w rong.Government had an ideological ly-based pol icythat majored on roads and noth ing asinconvenient as evidence was to be al lowed toget in the way. It was to be another 10 yearsbefore the evidence in this paper final lyachieved respectabi l i ty and even now thatrespectabi l i ty has not been converted intoideas l ike traffic ‘degeneration’ and reductionsin h ighway capaci ty to solve problems.

The burying/rejection of th is GreaterLondon Counci l evidence led the UK in thedirection of a massive growth in road bui ldingwhich has been fol low ed by a massiveincrease in traffic and i ts associated socialpol lution and communi ty destruction. It hascost the UK taxpayer several billion poundssterl ing and has not achieved the objectives

that were claimed at the time. In the UK wehave a system of surcharging local counci l lorsto make them pay for the financial lossesassociated wi th perverse, i l legal orincompetent decisions. On the same logicthere is a case here for surcharging theConservative government of the time for i tsperverse behaviour in rejecting evidence thathad a direct bearing on the prudent use ofpubl ic funds.

The paper raises the intriguing questionabout other inconvenient bi ts of evidence thatare in the publ ic domain but are being buriedor rejected so as to maintain the rule oforthodoxy and ideology. There are at leastthree areas that fi t th is description: aviation,parking in ci ties and road freight. These areal l topics that have been covered in articles inthis journal in the past and wi l l be coveredagain in the future. An early edi tion of WTPPwas devoted entirely to freight transportproblems and since that time the problem hasgrown in severi ty wi th very l i ttle co-ordinatedeffort by any publ ic or private agency toimplement solutions. Aviation has fol low ed asimi lar pattern. This is clearly a veryunsustainable economic activi ty wi th manydamaging local and global environmental

consequences. Yet in 1998 i t received over 1 b i l l ion of very soft loans from theEuropean Investment Bank and continues tobe supported by tax free privi leges on fuel andfree infrastructure in the form of rai l and roadconnections to airports that are the envy ofmany decl ining and rejected industries in theEuropean Union. Final ly w e have the exampleof parking in ci ties. Every transport plannerhas shelves of material showing that thereduction of parking places and/or theincreases of charges is a very effective way ofsolving traffic problems in ci ties andstimulating the more sustainable modes. Thereal i ty is that M anchester and Liverpool in thenorth of England (and many other ci tieselsewhere in the world) continue to addparking places to those already in placebecause ‘ i t is good for business’ . It used to bepopular to repeat the (rather old) saying ‘whenyou’re in a hole stop digging’. Transportpol icy in the vast majori ty of the w orld’scongested and unheal thy ci ties could besummarised as ‘when you’re in a hole pay alot of people to design and bui ld a biggershovel and then dig more furiously’ .

John Whi telegg, Edi tor

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has increased by nearly 5% per annum overthe last 20 years at the expense of rail andinland waterways – even faster than thegrowth of GDP and car traffic (OECD, 1997).Li ttle wonder that in western Europe, forexample, freight shipments by road increasedfrom 51% to 70% between 1951 and 1990 (intonne-ki lometres) (OECD, 1996), and thatfurther growth is predicted.

In our increasingly urbanising w orld ci tiesand tow ns are both one of the main drivingforces and one of the main victims of thesedevelopments.

They are driving forces because ci ties arethe centres of economic development andgrowth which is strongly correlated to theexpansion of traffic, particularly roadtransport, and accompanied by structuraldevelopments l ike urban sprawl , thesegregation of functions and more flexibleproduction and distribution requiring thecontinued massive use of trucks. Equal ly,businesses increasingly access remote marketsand become players in the global isingeconomy, thereby boosting even more thedemand for freight transport. The properfunctioning of ci ties is nowadays bui l t uponfreight transport by road. As a resul t, i t seemsto be impossible to substantial ly decreasefreight transport by road wi thout harmingvi tal needs of ci ties and their populations.According to many people there is no realal ternative.

On the other hand, urban areas suffer fromthousands of trucks on their roads andconcerns are growing about their signi ficantcontribution to the continued deterioration oflocal and global environments. In the EU,latest reviews of the state of the environmentreveal a general aggravation of the si tuation inrecent years (EEA, 1998). This is highl ightedby the fol low ing facts:

• Fuel consumption and energy use byroad transport account for over 80% ofincreasing transport-related energyconsumption. Road transport’s share ofthe total final oi l consumption is evenl ikely to account for virtual ly al l

Peter LöfflerEuropean Sustain able Cities & Towns Campaign, Brussels

Address for correspondence:Peter LöfflerEuropean Sustainable Cities &Towns Campaign49-51 rue de TrèvesB-1040 BruxellesBelgiumFax +32 2 230 8850E-mail:[email protected]

Abstract

The increasing amount of freight transport byroad in urban areas of industrial ised countriesinduces serious social and economic impactsthrough local and global environmentaldeterioration. Sustainable developmentdemands that these effects be reducedsubstantial ly. The concept of Ci ty Logisticsseems to offer an ideal method to decrease thenumber of trucks w i thout harming economicperformance. However, i ts current use isrestricted in a number of ways. In particular,large-scale implementation of Ci ty Logisticswould require di fferent economic incentivesfor private actors.

K ey words

Freight logistics, sustainable development,urban transport,

Freight transport in urban areas –dimensions and problems

Over the last decades, al l industrial isedcountries in the world experienced acontinuous growth of traffic. In particular, theamount of traffic by road virtual ly explodedfol lowing a pattern w hich in a nutshel l couldbe described as ‘more vehicles, carrying fewerpassengers per vehicle, are making more andlonger trips’ (OECD, 1997). Wi thin urbanareas, this unprecedented degree of mobi l i tyof people and goods has social and economicimpacts (congestion, noise, pol lution andaccidents) causing an overal l decrease in thequal i ty of urban l i fe. In Europe, there isalmost no ci ty w hich is not seriously affectedby these developments.

Unti l recent years, the agenda of ci typlanners, urban transport departments andpol i ticians centred mainly on passengertransport whereas no attention was given tofreight transport. This subject was onlyrecently ‘discovered’ as an important aspect oftransport in urban areas which urgentlyrequires our attention. This is somewhatsurprising, since transport of goods by road

City Logistics: A Contribution to SustainableDevelopment? – A contribution to the discussion onsolutions to freight transport problems in urbanareas

Löffler: City Logistics: A

Contribution to Sustainable

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incremental demand for oi l in the nextdecade (OECD, 1997). The resul tingatmospheric emissions make a growingcontribution to global warming;

• Local ly, road traffic has become one ofthe most important sources of airpol lution and noise. Trucks are manytimes as loud as cars and do not need tomeet the same emission standards. Thisentai ls serious heal th risks for ci tizens(OECD, 1996);

• Trucks bear high safety risks and causeserious traffic accidents;

• Trucks demand particularly high land fortransport infrastructure leading to strongseparation effects and urban sprawl ;

• At the same time, trucks requireparticularly stable roads, bridges, etc.and cause a higher rate of w ear. Thiscosts huge amounts of publ ic money;and

• Congestion caused by freight transporthampers the efficiency and properworking of urban transport systems.

The most w orrying fact is, how ever, theunabated growth of freight transport by road.Unless this tendency changes dramatical ly,there is l i ttle doubt that in the future evenmore trucks wi l l circulate on more roadsgenerating further economic and socialdamage through local and globalenvironmental deterioration.

Sustainable development andsustainable mobi l i ty

It is w i thin th is context – the contributions offreight transport by road to economicdevelopment on the one hand and i tssigni ficant deteriorative effects on the other –that the concept of sustainable developmentmight bring new l ight on these issues. Thediscussion around sustainabi l i ty makes i tclear that ‘ there is no longer any way ofseparating environment and development’(von Weizsäcker et al ., 1998). Consequently,economic development needs to remainwi thin the global ecological carrying capaci tyand to maintain the vi tal functions of naturalsystems for the wel l -being of present andfuture generations.

There is much evidence that w e already arefar beyond this carrying capaci ty – thegreenhouse effect is a wel l -known example –and that this is mainly the responsibi l i ty ofthe extremely high levels of per capi taproduction and consumption in the rich,industrial ised countries of the Northernhemisphere (von Weizsäcker et al ., 1998). As aresul t, these countries need to substantial ly

reduce their use of natural resources andconsequent detrimental impact on theenvironment. Various studies devoted toquanti fication of global l imi ts and thepercentage of reduction levels required in thelong run came to tough conclusions: decreasesof per capi ta consumption in relation tovarious factors by 70% and more wi th in thenext decades are deemed to be necessary inthis part of the world (Weterings & Opschoor,1992; Loske et al ., 1996; von Weizsäcker et al .,1998).

At the local level , sustainable developmentaddresses the problems both caused andexperienced by urban areas. Many localplayers are wi l l ing to address i ts chal lenges.Ini tiatives l ike the European SustainableCi ties and Towns Campaign show that this hasbecome much more than just a temporaryfashion. To date, more than 410 Europeanlocal and regional authori ties are participatingin th is in i tiative which was launched in 1994wi th the goal of modi fying local developmentin fu l fi lment of the ‘Charter of European Ci tiesand Towns tow ards Sustainabi l i ty’ (the ÅlborgCharter).

Coming back to the issue of freighttransport in urban areas, we need to see howthe thinking around sustainable developmenttranslates into new guidel ines. An importantdefini tion has been made by the OECD’sEnvironmental ly Sustainable TransportProject, which sought to give more meaning tothe term ‘sustainable transport’ . It definedenvironmental ly sustainable transport as

‘Transport that does not endanger publ ichealth or ecosystems and meets needs foraccess consistent wi tha) sustainable use of renewable resourcesat below their rates of regeneration andb) use of non-renewable resources atbelow the rates of development ofrenewable substi tutes’ (OECD, 1996).

This is a clear statement that transportactivi ties must be reconci led wi th theenvironmental objectives of sustainabledevelopment, i .e. the above mentionedreduction targets. In order to becomesustainable transport systems, decreases ofCO

2 emissions by 80%, of NO

X emissions by

more than 80% and of Ozone by 70-80% arerequired (OECD, 1996).

However, freight transport moves in theopposite direction making a radical changenecessary. From th is point of view, a closerlook at the concept of freight logistics in urbanareas should be taken in the fol lowingsections. In the fol lowing, the term ‘Ci tyLogistics’ wi l l be used, a term widely appl iedin German-speaking countries where the



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concept has found broad uptake.

T he concept of City Logistics in urbanareas

But what is meant by Ci ty Logistics? In ageneral sense, logistics have the task ofco-ordinating and steering the flow of goodsand in formation wi th in economic activi ties.This co-ordinating function has becomeincreasingly important through the last 20years due to the intensi fying complexi ty of theindustrial and commercial world leading toescalating freight transport needs. Increasingdiversi fication, global isation and increasedcompeti tion went hand in hand wi thstructural changes in the economy such aslean production, outsourcing, reduced stocksand just-in-time del ivery. Equal ly, increasedconsumer spending power and diversi fyingdemands played a role. Logistics, usingmodern information and communicationtechnologies, are an integral part ofentrepreneurial activities in line with thesedevelopments. They ensure efficient use oftransport and help to meet demand whi leminimising expensive stock keeping. Theimportance of logistics for the

competi tiveness of a company has become sogreat that wholesalers seek to ‘gain perfectcontrol over upstream and downstream flows’and to steer the development of logistics andcommunication processes (Eurocommerce,1998).

To many people, the concept of Ci ty

Logistics is based on the assumption thatlogistics could be an important tool toorganise freight transport in urban areas moreefficiently, decrease the amount of trucks andthus modi fy urban traffic development in away which causes less disturbance andcontributes to sustainable development. Themost important potential in this respect is thehighly inefficient organisation of freighttransport w i thin ci ties: in Germany, averagetruckloads occupy less than hal f of the trucks’capaci ty and approximately 60% of shipmentsto ci ty centres are less than 50 kg (Hatzfeld,1994). Hence, trucks and lorries are not onlyunder-used, they are also used too often for atoo smal l del ivery. Other aspects, which addto the perceived inefficiency of urban freighttransport, are congestion caused by huge, slowvehicles, and unloading trucks in the streets.

Ci ty Logistics should ensure through al lfeatures and technologies associated wi thlogistics – such as telematics appl ications,enhanced intermodal i ty, freight d istributioncentres, and increased communicationbetween al l actors – that goods are moved in toor away from ci ties more efficiently. In someinstances, a big freight d istribution centre atthe periphery of a ci ty is conceived w herecargo from long-haul transport should betransferred from large trucks into smal ler, ci ty-friendly low-emission lorries for their del iveryto retai lers and final customers. In practice,one could imagine a ‘hyper-truck’ equippedwi th less pol luting technologies supplying thesupermarket, the butcher, the furni ture store,at the same time picking up waste forrecycling and disposal . The potential of suchan approach seems to be high: Ruske (1996)informs us that i t offers a potential to reduceurban freight transport by between 30% and50%by 2010.

The charm of Ci ty Logistics is that theypromise to make a contribution to sustainabledevelopment in urban areas by combiningecological and social advantages (less freighttransport w i th smal ler and less-pol lutingvehicles) wi th economic profi t (sametransport performance for lower costs). Thus,i t could be seen as another bri l l iant exampleof the ‘efficiency revolution’, one of the mostimportant strategies towards sustainabledevelopment (von Weizsäcker et al ., 1998).Perhaps not surprisingly, logistics solutionsappear to be one of the most preferredapproaches of local government, ci ties’associations, and urban traffic planners.

In brief, high expectations are placed onCi ty Logistics which, to many local actors,seem to offer an ideal way to bring urbanfreight transport into l ine wi th sustainable

Figure 1: Hyper-truck for urban freight transport equipped with environmentallyfriendly technologies (International Automobile Exposition, Hanover, 1997)



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transport and expresses a general suspicionthat local authori ties del iberately take actionagainst the in terests of the business sector(DIHT 1997).

At this time i t is important to note thatthere is no need for local government tocontrol these issues because Ci ty Logisticsi tsel f provides sufficient economic incentiveto some transport operators by reducing theircosts as wel l as increasing fleet efficiency(Klewe, 1997). But how strong is the overal linterest? Hatzfeld and Hesse (1994) show thatparticular sectors which ship the biggest partof overal l freight volume, and therefore wi ththe highest potential to increase efficiency,feel l i ttle interest to become involved.Wholesalers and big retai lers such assupermarket chains and department stores arereluctant because they already have ful lyestabl ished logistics systems serving theirspeci fic needs. Others, l ike smal ler retai lers,would be more interested, al though they useprofessional del ivery services wi th optimisedlogistics systems offering l i ttle scope forimprovements (Klewe, 1997).

Despi te these discouragements, localgovernment should undertake everyopportuni ty to enter into discussion andco-operation wi th the business communi ty onthe subject of Ci ty Logistics. However, weshould not expect to see a huge number ofbusinesses embarking on the concept of Ci tyLogistics. At the moment some pi lot projectsinvolve a very l imi ted amount of cargo and asmal l number of actors, whereas the ‘heaviest’sectors reject the idea and freight transportincreases. If the framework condi tions underwhich these actors take their decisions do notchange, i t seems there wi l l be no chance todevelop any signi ficant contributions to thehighly chal lenging environmental objectivesof sustainable transport.

T he forgotten spatial dimension onfreight transport

There are several reasons why a number ofimportant actors show l i ttle motivation todevelop a more sustainable freight transportsystem. Firstly, despi te the increasedcompeti tive si tuation for transport operators,the single most important factor remains hugesubsidies making transport – particularly roadtransport – so cheap that l i ttle incentive isgiven to actors to drive fewer ki lometres oruse trucks more efficiently. Statistical analysisshows that fuel prices are indeed the mostimportant factor influencing per capi ta fuelconsumption. Li ttle w onder that continuouslydecreasing fuel prices encourage more

development. In this respect, and bearing inmind particularly the environmentalobjectives of sustainable development, thefol lowing sections w i l l try to assess thepotential and impl ications of Ci ty Logistics inmore detai l . The idea is appeal ing at fi rstglance, but a number of important problemsbring much of the current thinking intoquestion. However, a discussion of theseproblems should help to give new input andal low di fferent approaches based on logisticssolutions.

City Logistics in practice

Local authori ties may fi rstly be interested toknow which practical steps and arrangementsCi ty Logistics require. However, many ci tieswishing to embark on the concept wi l l besurprised by the substantial lack ofappropriate data that could guide decision-making. In Germany, perhaps less than 5% ofal l ci ties have a clear idea of the amount,structure and spatial distribution of freighttransportation wi thin their local areas(Hatzfeld, 1994).

In many cases, this lack of data isaccompanied by a lack of admin istrativecapaci ty wi thin a local authori ty. Evenmunicipal transport departments often do nothave staff wi th expl ici t responsibi l i ty andknow-how of to freight transport issues.However, both lack of data and staff crucial lyrestrict the abi l i ty of local authori ties toformulate a rational posi tion and develop astrategy for moving their freight transportsystem towards sustainabi l i ty. It also preventsmoni toring and evaluation of the resul ts ofaction taken.

Wi thout useful data and insti tu tionalcapaci ty, local government w i l l also find i tdi fficul t to enter into d iscussion andnegotiation wi th those who wi l lunquestionably be key actors of any Ci tyLogistics concept: retai lers, wholesalers,international traders, producers, haulagecontractors, and logistics providers. Close co-operation between local administration andthose actors wi l l be necessary in order todevelop sound logistics concepts. Asexperiences have shown, this co-operation is adi fficul t task due, in many instances, toadverse posi tions and general ly l i ttlecommunication between urban p lanners,traffic planners, economic departments andfirms (Thoma, 1995, Hesse, 1995). Forexample, a position paper of the powerfulGerman Chamber of Industry and Commerce(DIHT) completely rejects current strategies ofci ties to mi tigate the effects of road freight



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transport (von Weizsäcker et al ., 1998; OECD,1997). Another obstacle is the lack ofexperience wi th Ci ty Logistics; the fi rst stepstowards the new system imply uncertainty, arisky learning-by-doing approach, strategicthinking and investments that might not payback for several years’ time, i f ever. So whyshould people invest in a new system w hichmay in the end not work very wel l?

Surprisingly, there are verbal commitmentsand even successful in i tiatives by the privatesector to develop Ci ty Logistics systems. Forinstance, the DIHT posi tion paper, whichstrongly cri ticises current urban freighttransport pol icies, suggested Ci ty Logistics asa key area where voluntary contributions fromthe private sector could be envisaged.Obviously, a main reason for this unexpectedatti tude is the traffic crisis wi thin many innerci ty areas where transport-related disturbancehas reached such a level that there is strongpol i tical pressure in favour of substantialchanges. The strengthened posi tion of thosecampaigning for fewer trucks in ci tiessupports local government to take measureswhich force the powerful private sector tocome up w i th new concepts (Thoma, 1995).This movement may also be backed by theemerging discussion on the revi tal isation ofabandoned ci ty centres and better co-operation between trade and local authori ties.

But are the Ci ty Logistics approachesclaimed by these groups, apart from theirpotential posi tive resul ts wi thin the ci tycentres, l ikely to lead towards sustainablemobi l i ty? A fi rst doubt rises when we observethat they do not give any attention to freight

transport in the urban periphery and thehinterlands. There is much evidence thatthese areas are the places where by far thebiggest percentage of freight transport by roadoccurs. Roughly, w e can assume over 80% ofal l freight flows remain w i thin regions, asdefined by a ci ty and i ts h interlands, and thatthe transport volume related to the ci tycentres plays a very minor role (Ruske 1996;Baum et al ., 1994). Figures 2 and 3 highl ightthese facts giving the example of the Ci ty ofStuttgart, Germany. The enormous amount offreight transport wi th in the periphery andhinterlands makes i t clear that acomprehensive strategy for sustainablemobi l i ty primari ly needs to give attention tofreight transport outside ci ty centres.Obviously, peripheral freight transport flow swould need to be included in a logisticsscheme aiming at less environmentaldeterioration through more efficient freighttransport.

It could become even worse for theperiphery i f the decrease of freight transportin the centres occurs at the expense ofperipheral areas, i .e. by requiring theconstruction of new transport in frastructure atthe periphery and subsequent transportincrease. Ci ty Logistics strategies whichcomprise the construction of freight terminalsin these areas, lead directly to land use of 70-250 ha for huge concentrated complexes(streets not included), or perhaps even morespace for several smal ler terminals. Incombination wi th other peripheral projects,such as factory outlet centres or technologyparks, a spatial shi ft of freight transport mightoccur where quiet ci ty centres wi th niceshopping mal ls are surrounded by ‘ logisticslandscapes’ crossed by hundreds andthousands of trucks each day. Even i f thecentres could be l iberated from freighttransport (Ci ty Logistics might perhaps onlyachieve a compensation of the predictedincrease of freight transport), i t would requirefurther examination to find out whether thespace gained through a concept such as CityLogistics does not induce more car traffic.

In the worst scenario Ci ty Logistics, asoften envisaged at present, do not only ignorethe worrying amount of freight transport inthe periphery and hin terlands, but also evenactively support freight transport increase inthese areas. This clearly would lead us furtheraway from sustainable development.

Possible steps for the years to come

In a nutshel l , current approaches to Ci tyLogistics suffer lack of data, municipal staff,Figure 3: Freight transport flows in the hinterlands of Stuttgart, Germany (Ruske, 1996)

Figure 2: Truck trips per day in different areas of Stuttgart, Germany (Ruske, 1996)



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interest by private actors generating andoperating transport, and are too focussed onci ty centres. Is there any w ay to overcomethese problems and improve their potential toreduce freight transport? An enormouscapaci ty to boost the development of Ci tyLogistics in l ine wi th the objectives ofsustainable development could be based onthe observation of Thoma (1995) that Ci tyLogistics are l ikely to develop in to a majorservice sector which continuously ‘ ...developsaccording to the current needs of the market’.Obviously, current market condi tions givel i ttle economic incentives to take into accountefficient use of freight transport capaci ty. Apotentially very powerful way to supportefficient transport could therefore be – in l inewi th recommendations made by vonWeizsäcker et al . (1998) – to createappropriate market forces in order to make i teconomical ly attractive to develop moreefficient freight transport solu tions.Governments have been reticent since themiddle of the 1980s to demand greater fuelefficiency. However, the most important factorto create a real market for Ci ty Logistics wouldbe a strategical ly increasing price for freighttransport which cuts subsidies and reflects al lnegative external i ties of transport.

Under these condi tions, i t could become amajor business opportun i ty to reducetransport costs. The right price signal tel l ingthe ‘ecological truth’ would harness al lcreativi ty, ideas and interest of producers,commerce, transport operators and cl ients topursue and further develop ideas such as Ci tyLogistics. This could broaden their scope,bringing al l means of transport (trucks,‘ intel l igent rai l ’, even bicycles), supportingtechnologies (e.g. telecommunication andtelematics) and forms of organisation (co-operation between di fferent actors, newtransport-related services, changed productionand distribution methods) into the game. Atthe same time, the hinterlands would receivemore attention because they offer the biggestprofi ts through increased transport efficiency.

Obviously there is a need to apply Ci tyLogistics more widely and to involve moreactors and freight volume i f they shouldbecome an important tool for sustainablemobi l i ty. From th is perspective they shouldnot on ly be under the control of the fi rmsinvolved, but be developed together wi th localauthori ties and other important actors ofurban development. Current pi lot projects

might become a future source of insight intothe modi fication of freight transport systems,thus giving distinctive competi tive advantagesto forerunners of the fu ture market forefficient transport solutions. A number ofopportuni ties already exist to start morecomprehensive approaches by l inking Ci tyLogistics to other projects and ini tiatives suchas the fol lowing:

• Regional networks promoting sustainabledevelopment, e.g. the ‘Xarxa’ network inSpain, the ci ties in the Kouvola region inFinland, or the Network ‘Vi l les etdévéloppement durable Midi -Pyrenées’.These could help City Logistics todevelop the regional dimension requiredto overcome the narrow focus on ci tycentres.

• The ‘Bremen In i tiative’, launched in1996, wi th the aim to foster co-operationbetween businesses and local govern-ment for sustainable development: Thismovement, which w i l l focus onforthcoming transport issues, couldprovide an important forum for bettercommunication between publ ic andprivate actors on the issue of freighttransport in urban areas.

• The activi ties grouped around theEuropean Sustainable Ci ties & TownsCampaign. Latest stud ies show that farmore than 1000 local authori ties acrossEurope are engaged in the creation ofLocal Agenda 21 and strategic actionplans for sustainable development.Freight transport could be integratedinto these ini tiatives.

Conclusion

Even i f we increase transport efficiencythrough logistics solutions, we have to beaware that efficiency ul timately cannot solvethe problem. Unabated economic growth andincreasing freight transport by road are closelycorrelated. Logistics can mi tigate the negativeeffects of transport growth or even achieveimprovements for a certain period. However,this can only buy time. More fundamentalchanges wi l l be needed i f we want to achievesustainable mobi l i ty in the long run. Thesewould have to examine more regional isedeconomies, major shi fts in economic thinkingemphasising the provision of a more broadlydefined service rather than consumer goods,and the de-material isation of both productionand consumption.



Development?


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Development?


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References

Baum, H., Pesch, S. & Weingarten, F. (1994)‘Verkehrsvermeidung durch Raumstruktur imGüterverkehr’ Buchreihe des Insti tuts fürVerkehrswissenschaft an der Universi tät zuKöln No. 57, Düsseldorf.DIHT (1997) ‘Funktion ierenderWirtschaftsverkehr für lebendige Städte’Straßenverkehrstechnik Vol . 41, No. 7, pp.336-342.EEA (1998) Europe’s Envi ronment: TheSecond Assessment. An Overview EuropeanEnvironment Agency, Office for OfficialPubl ications of the European Communi ties,Luxembourg.Eurocommerce (1998) Mani festo of theWholesale and International Trade SectorEurocommerce, Brussels.Hatzfeld, U. (1994) ‘Wirtschaftsverkehrzwischen Stadtfunktion undStadtverträgl ichkei t’ Schr i ftenreihe derDeutschen Verkehrswissenschaftl ichenGesellschaft B 172, pp. 5-30.Hatzfeld, U. & Hesse, M. (1994) ‘Stadtlogistik– Interessen statt Logistik’ InternationalesVerkehrswesen Vol . 46, No. 11, pp. 646-653.Hesse, M. (1995) ‘Ein runder Tisch für denWirtschaftsverkehr? Prozessuale Planungs-und Kommunikationsformen’ , Dokumenteund Informationen zur Schweizerischen Orts-,Regional - und Landesplanung (DISP) Vol . 31,No. 121, pp. 19-24.Klewe, H. (1997) ‘Die Bedeutung desFahrrades für Ci ty-Logistik-Konzepte.Konstruktiv-Skeptisches zum Fahrrad alsTransportmittel’ ILS Monatsber icht des

Forschungsbereichs Verkehr 4/1997, Insti tutfür Landes- und Stadtentw icklungsforschungdes Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, Dortmund.Loske, R. et al . (1996) ZukunftsfähigesDeutschland. Ein Bei trag zu einer globalnachhal tigen Entwicklung Birkhäuser, Basle.OECD (1996) Pol lution Prevention andControl . Envi ronmental Cr i ter ia forSustainable Transpor t Repor t on Phase 1 ofthe Project on Envi ronmental ly SustainableTranspor t (EST) OCDE/GD(96)136Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment, Paris.____ (1997) Transpor t and Envi ronment.Background Repor t and Survey of OECD, IEAand ECMT Work OCDE/GD(97)175, Organisa-tion for Economic Co-operation and Develop-ment, Paris.Opschoor, W.B. & Weterings, M. (1992) TheEcocapaci ty as a Chal lenge to TechnologicalDevelopment Advisory Counci l for Researchon Nature and Environment (RM NO),Ri jswi jk.Ruske, W. (1996) ‘StädtischerWirtschaftsverkehr. Entw icklungstendenzenund Lösungsansätze’ Der Nahverkehr Vol . 13,No. 12, pp. 8-17.Thoma, L. (1995) City-Logistik. Konzeption –Organisation – Implementierung DeutscherUni -Verlag, Wiesbaden.von Weizsäcker, E., Lovins, A.B. & HunterLovins, L. (1997) Factor Four. Doubl ingWeal th, Halving Resource Use – The newRepor t to the Club of Rome Earthscan,London.

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Abstract

This paper revisi ts the concept of space-timeconvergence in the context of data onInterCi ty rai l journey times in the UK between1914 and 1998. The paper concludes that theconcept of convergence needs to beconsiderably refined in both historical andgeographical senses in order to ful ly representlong-run trends in the adoption of newtransport technologies. The paper considersthe geographical and pol icy impl ications ofthe quest for speed, particularly for the role ofLondon.

K ey words

London, railways, pol icy, speed, space-timeconvergence

Introduction

Sigmund Freud is supposed to have said thatwe were very lucky that the question ‘whendoes the train leave?’ was a val id one whereas‘where is our destination today?’ was not.Places could be rel ied on not to move about.The metaphor of ‘space-time convergence’impl ies that al though places may not move inabsolute terms, their posi tions may varyrelative to each other, this often beingmeasured by how long i t takes to travelbetween them. The introduction of newtransport technologies has reduced theapparent d istances between ci ties in terms oftravel time. This space-time convergence hasimportant impl ications for p lanning, therelative growth of towns, the location ofinvestment, transport’s environmental impactand particularly the role of London.

The concept of space-time convergencewas introduced into the academic l i teratureby Janelle (1968, 1969). He argued thatimprovements in travel speed would causeplaces to appear to be closer together. Thiswould induce more travel between them andso create market opportuni ties for furthertransport investment. This posi tive feedbackoperated everywhere, but he argued that i t

Address for correspondence:Gordon ClarkDepartment of Geography,Lancaster University,Lancaster LA1 4YB, U K

Clark: Where is Stranraer now?

Space-time convergence re-visited


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Where is Stranraer now? Space-time convergencere-visited

Gordon ClarkDepartment of Geography, Lancaster Universi ty

would most strongly affect major urban areas.Wi th investment proportional to the combinedsize of pairs of towns, larger towns w ould gainmore of the new investment and so wouldconverge more rapidly than smal lersettlements. Haggett (1983, pp. 338-340) usedthe analogy of an urban system imploding,which affected the larger settlements morethan the smal ler ones w hich in relative termsbecame ever more peripheral to the urbansystem.

Viewed narrowly, this convergence modelhas three weaknesses. First, i t ind icatesnei ther the rate of convergence nor whetherconvergence wi l l be historical ly constant.Second, i t does not indicate whether the rateof convergence wi l l be geographical lyconstant or wi l l be faster in some areas, ci tiesor routes than others. Third, it remains ahypothesis which has not been empirical lytested, particularly wi th regard to the relativeeffects of convergence on towns of di fferentsizes. This paper explores these issues, refinesthe space-time convergence model andexamines the pol icy consequences of thequest for speed.

Methods

Space-time convergence wi l l be explored inthe context of rai l travel . A ir travel is avai lableon a frequent dai ly basis from only sevenBri tish mainland ci ties to a London airport(and scarcely at al l to any other Bri tish ci ties)and less frequently to London from sevenother airports. Convergence is hard to studyfrom this sl im database. Travel by car is acomplex area and would need a separatestudy to do i t justice. Therefore we exploreconvergence by examining the database ofrailway journey times between London and 57Bri tish towns and ci ties which was publ ishedin Modern Rai lways in June 1998 (p. 408).This table l ists the fastest train times fromeach town to London in 1914, 1939 and 1968(data compi led by Ceci l J. A l len) and in 1998(compi led by Barry Doe). The use of thefastest train time rather than an average was a

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pragmatic decision by the tw o databasecompi lers but in practice most places todaydo not have one very fast direct train andother much slow er ones. Efficient l ine run-ning impl ies that most trains run at simi larspeeds. A few fast expresses were morecommon in the earl ier years of the databaseand so their use w i l l tend to underestimateconvergence on a few major l ines only. In thenew privatised rai lway era there may be arebirth of the phenomenon of competingroutes between major ci ties (e.g. London toBirmingham) which are di fferentiated asfaster/more expensive versus slower/cheaperroutes. There are unl ikely to be many marketswhich wi l l be able to support suchcompetition. The Allen/Doe database dealsonly w i th interci ty journeys to London.Developments in rai l are irrelevant for thestudy of convergence where routes no longerexist, stations have been closed or trains nolonger stop.

When did trains get faster?

Space-time convergence has been ahistorical ly uneven process. This can beshown by adding the total journey timesbetween each town on the database andLondon in each year. Of the total time savingbetween 1914 and 1998, 30% occurred

between 1914 and 1938, 24% between 1938and 1968, and 46% per between 1968 and1998. The interwar period, despi te includingthe Great Depression, saw journey timesreduced on average by 56 seconds per year perroute in the database, which is a far greaterreduction than the 38 seconds/year/routebetween 1939 and 1968 and is almost as greatas the 71 seconds/year/route in the 1968-98period. The best performing long route(Edinburgh to London) saw larger timereductions for two of the three periods (4minutes and 12 seconds; 18 seconds; and 3minutes and 42 seconds per yearrespectively). This route bettered the UKaverage more comprehensively in the in terwarperiod of steam traction than in the mostrecent period of electri fication. As acomparison Janel le (1968, p. 6) calculated aconvergence rate of 29 minutes and 24seconds per year for the Edinburgh to Londonjourney for 1776-1966 by stagecoach, rai l orair; and, for rai l only, 3 minutes and 24seconds per year for the period 1850-1966.Janel le (1968, p. 8) hypothesised thatconvergence would be asymptotic – the rate ofconvergence would fal l over time. Theevidence above for rai l does not show thatprocess happening during the twentiethcentury, though ul timately he must be correctin absolute terms (minutes saved) even i f notnecessari ly in percentage terms.

The time reductions achieved wi thin steamtrain technology are often underestimated.Between 1914 and 1939 Bri tish rai lwaycompanies were in competi tion wi th eachother on some key routes (notably fromScotland and North-West England to London)and there was investment to raise the speed ofsteam trains. The 1939-1968 period wasnotable for the underinvestment and heavyuse of the system during the Second WorldWar, the severe control on publ ic expendi tureup to the mid-1950s and the periodicreductions in publ ic investment general lyduring the stop-go years of the postwar Bri tisheconomy. The 1968-98 period was marked byrenewed investment (mostly routeelectri fication and IC125 trains) which raisedspeeds but wi th an uneven pattern, one routeat a time. Janel le hypothesised thatconvergence would be step-l ike rather thancontinuous (major sudden speed increasesfol lowed by periods of no change). In practicethis overemphasises the role of step changesdue to new technologies and underplays thefrequent minor improvements in rai l speedwi thin existing technologies. To extendJanel le’s analogy, the steps’ treads weresloping (repeated minor improvements) rather




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Figure 1: Reduction in travel time by train to London, 1914-1998

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than flat (no change wi thout a newtechnology).

Where did trai ns get faster?

On average, 1914 journeys had become about10% quicker by 1939, 18% by 1968 and 33%by 1998, but this ‘shrinking’ of Bri tain was notat the same rate everywhere. Figure 1highlights the spatial unevenness of the space-time convergence. Services to Kent, Sussex,the south Midlands, Devon and Cornwal l havehad only smal l improvements in journeytimes over the 84 years (or in the cases ofFolkestone and Margate now have sl ightlylonger journey times) and simi larly wi th theIrish boat train routes (to Stranraer, Holyheadand Fishguard). In sharp contrast the routes toEdinburgh and Norwich have had very largereductions in journey times.

Another way of show ing the geographicalvariation in convergence is to map towns inrelation to their travel time from Londonrather than their ground distance. An earlyexample of such a map can be found in Lloydand Dicken (1977, p. 194) based on an idea byRichard Natkiel for New Society andforerunner maps by McHale (1969, p. 64) andClawson (1972, p . 13). These maps fai l to

Figure 3: The shrinking railway geography of Great Britain, 1914-1998(towns in their new locations, 1998)

Figure 2: The railway geography of Great Britain in 1914

show where convergence has been faster orslower than average. Haggett (1983 p. 338-340)used Janel le’s 1969 argument of transportinvestment being proportional to urban size,to develop a model of an urban implosion –the largest towns converging faster and soleaving behind in relative terms the smal lertowns which become more peripheral . We cannow test that model and see which placeshave converged the fastest.

Figures 2 and 3 give a historical andgeographical dimension to space-timeconvergence by InterCi ty rai l . Figure 2 maps27 places from the Al len/Doe database in theirtrue geographical relationship to each otherand to London. A polygon joining them givesthe shape of the railway geography of Britainin 1914. In Figure 3 each town has beenmoved closer to London in proportion to thetime reduction in the fastest train journey by1998. The 1998 polygon has beensuperimposed on the 1914 one forcomparison, both being centred on London.

The most obvious change has been theeffect of the 33% average reduction in traveltimes and the much smal ler size of presentday ‘railway Bri tain’ . Yet we can note somedepartures from the average. Kent is the sameshape and size as before – indeed both

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Margate and Folkestone are apparently furtherfrom London, having sl ightly greater fastest-train times now than in 1914. The Eastbournel ine shows no improvement and the Brightonl ine’s performance is wel l below average.

The opposi te change is the lopsidedshrinkage between the East Coast towns andthose on the other main routes. Of the tenplaces wi th the biggest ‘moves towardsLondon’ , six are served by the East Coastroute, and the electri fied l ine to Norwichcomes out wel l too. The earl ier electri ficationof the West Coast l ine propels Preston into thetop ten as wel l . But age tel ls; the improvementin journey time to Glasgow is a ful l tenpercentage points less good than theimprovement to Edinburgh. The Irish portroutes have al l had below average reductionsin journey times so that, relatively speaking,these towns ‘stick out’ even more than before.The fastest train from Glasgow to Birminghamis only 42 minutes quicker than the fastest toLondon (113 mi les further) and some areslower. In part this is due to the lack ofthrough trains w hich is w hy Glasgow to Leedsis at best only 51 minutes quicker thanGlasgow to London. By 2008 both Leeds andBirmingham wi l l be further in time terms

from Glasgow than London wi l l be, thoughgeographical ly much nearer.

Another way to look at this is to note that,comparing 1914 and 1998, Edinburgh is nowcloser to London than Harrogate was in 1914,Inverness is closer now than Stranraer was,Leeds is closer than Birmingham, Plymouth asclose as Cardi ff and Exeter as close as Bristol .So whereas Leeds in 1914 was only 8 minutescloser to London than L iverpool , i t is now 39minutes closer.

There is a clear pattern of leapfrogging;investment occurs spasmodical ly, a routegaining the latest technology and then dri ftinginto obsolescence over the fol lowing decades.Some major ci ties can be seen to havebenefi ted greatly (e.g. Edinburgh, Leeds andNewcastle-upon-Tyne) whi le others did lesswel l (e.g. Birmingham). Smal ler towns canalso benefi t where they are on the route to alarger ci ty and sti l l have stopping trains toLondon (e.g. Taunton, Scarborough and York).There is clearly a capi tal or primate ci ty effectsince London routes have been favoured,those between non-neighbouring regionalcentres much less so. According to Rai l track’splans, by 2008 the journey time from Glasgowto London w i l l have fal len by 23 per centwhereas the average reduction for the routesfrom Glasgow to Inverness, Aberdeen,Edinburgh and Stranraer wi l l be only 5 percent. A simi lar Paris-centred pattern is visible

in post-war French rai lway development.Only London and Paris have benefi ted frommore than one major route improvement and asimi lar focus on a very few key ci ties is seenin Germany, Italy and Austral ia. East-westroutes in the UK have improved in terms ofspeed much less than those to London; forexample, the fastest Barrow-in-Furness toLeeds service improved by only 1% between1922 and 1999. The greater speed of dieseltrains has often been counterbalanced bylonger routes and time spent changing trainsnow that d irect services have beenwi thdrawn. Space-time convergence on keyci ties such as London has been far greaterthan that on any other ci ty and that has hadmajor effects on London which wi l l beexplored later.

In general Janel le is correct; smal l townstend ei ther to lose al l services or haverelatively slower trains and a reduced numberof direct connections. They can present a lessgood conventional case for costly investmentsin transport. This was particularly true duringthe Beeching cuts of the 1960’s w hen networkeffects were undervalued. Smal ler ci ties maybenefi t from convergence only in certainspecial circumstances: i f they are on amodernised route where trains sti l l stop(Peterborough); i f they are a rapidly growingsettlement (e.g. Reading); or near a strategicdevelopment such as an airport or theme park;or they are at a junction where stopping trainsopen up travel opportuni ties not avai lable bythat company’s direct routes (e.g. LichfieldTrent Val ley and Nuneaton on the West CoastMain Line for connections to Birmingham).

We can now test in a more formal mannerthe hypothesis that larger towns w i l l benefi tmore from convergence than smal ler ones. Inpractice there is no statistical ly signi ficantcorrelation between the size of ci ties (their1991 Census resident population) and ei therthe absolute (minutes) or percentage timesavings on journeys to London. This is despi tethe obviously very strong posi tive correlationbetween absolute time savings and distancefrom London (Pearson’s r = 0.918; signi ficantat the 0.01 level) and the less strongcorrelation between the percentage timesavings and distance from London (Pearson’s r= 0.378; signi ficant at the 0.01 level). The lackof a signi ficant correlation as hypothesisedbetween ci ty size and the rate of convergenceis largely due to three confounding variableswhich mask the simple Janel le model . First,the larger ci ties are sometimes close toLondon wi th l imi ted scope for absoluteconvergence (e.g. Birmingham and Bristol )and sometimes further away and better




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posi tioned to show convergence (e.g.Edinburgh and Glasgow). Second, some largeci ties are on recently modernised routes andothers are not. Third, the relationship betweenabsolute and percentage time savings iscomplex. Up to a time saving of about 100minutes, there is a posi tive correlationbetween the two (the greater the time savingin minutes the greater also the percentagetime saving) whereas beyond a time saving of100 minutes the percentage change isuncorrelated (in fact, nearly constant) w i th theabsolute time saving.

It is too simple to say that larger ci tiesbenefi ted more than smal ler ones. Janel le’shypothesis of convergence being faster forlarger ci ties is on ly true in an aspatial worldwhere convergence is defined in terms of: (i )absolute time savings; (i i ) al l routes areupgraded simul taneously; (i i i ) upgrading isfor end-to-end timings and smal lerintermediate places lose direct services; (iv)one ignores the geographical di fferencesbetween the settings and growth potential ofdi fferent smal l towns. Where convergence isdefined in percentage terms, investment isundertaken sequential ly route by route, andwel l posi tioned in termediate towns can alsobenefi t, then the simple l ink betweenpopulation size and convergence is effectivelyconcealed. What is clear, however, is that

London has benefi ted from al l the other ci ties’combined convergences, large and smal l .

Some practical consequences

In the past, one of the ways in which placesdi ffered from each other was in terms of howfar they were from London. So, in 1914Birmingham, Bournemouth and Bristol w ereal l about an hour closer to London thanExeter, Crewe or Sheffield; today, they are onaverage only 25 minutes closer. Simi larlyBirmingham was 30 minutes further fromLondon than Margate; today i t is just as closein time terms. So some ‘ InterCi ty’ journeys arenow as short as ‘ long distance commuting’ones and wi l l have taken on some of thatfunction. Of the 57 towns in the Al len/Doedatabase, just 16 were wi thin two hours ofLondon in 1914 and 1939, but 23 w ere in1968 and 28 by 1998. So, a business looking todevelop a cheaper out-of-London base for i tsactivi ties (but one not more than two hoursfrom the capi tal ) had nearly twice as manytowns on the database to choose from in 1998as in 1914.

For ind ividuals, speed may generate extrajourneys. The day visi t to London forshopping or entertainment, which was onceso long as to be impracticable, has becomefeasible today for a larger percentage of theBri tish population. Equal ly, the longmul tipurpose trip to London may nowbecome several separate trips, one for eachpurpose and each on the day most convenientfor the activity. Figure 4 shows veryapproximately the 2-hour radius for directtrain journeys to London in 1914 and 1998;the latter covers 54% more of Bri tain, soextending London’s sphere of influence.

T he effects on London

The shortening of rai l journeys has weakenedLondon as more distant p laces have come torival i t for investment wi th low er costs. Firmscan now fragment their operations by sendingstaff- and space-intensive operations out ofLondon to an ever growing number of townswhich are wi thin reasonable travel time ofLondon for meetings wi th key staff at thefirm’s headquarters. The London economy hasbeen enabled by faster travel to become morespecial ized in headquarters functions andtheir support functions such as marketing,professional services and consul tancy.However, the role of London has also beenstrengthened in terms of leisure and shoppingtrips, day visi ts, meetings and conferences.London’s role as the national focus has been




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Figure 4: The two-hour travel radius by train from London, 1914 and 1998

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enhanced and diversi fied into new aspects ofl i fe. Space-time convergence has changed thefunctions of London at least as much as i t hasdone those of smal ler ci ties and towns.

Future pol icy

Wi l l the quest for speed continue? In the UK i tis again the turn of the West Coast l ine toleapfrog the East Coast route in terms of risingspeeds, by 2005 moving Glasgow as close toLondon as Edinburgh is today and Manchesteras close as Birmingham today, using newtrains and remodel led tracks. The trickledownof equipment should eventual ly benefi t mostplaces. Some routes wi l l ‘contract’ faster thanothers because of the continuing patchiness ofinvestment in the short term. One of thedriving forces for having higher speed l ineshas always been the industrial pressure for ahigh prestige demonstration of newtechnologies which might be exported, sohelping the national balance of payments; thishas been a feature of rai lway developments inSweden, Italy, Germany and particularlyFrance. There is now pressure from airportoperators and airl ines in the UK and Germanyto swi tch some traffic to rai l so as to free aircapaci ty to replace low-profi t short-haulfl ights wi th h igher-profi t long-haul routes.

However, there are some countervai l ingpressures. First, bui lding a new high speedrailway l ine is no more popular wi th localresidents than a new motorway. For example,the Transrapid very high speed l ink proposedbetween Berl in and Hamburg wi l l probablynot proceed now (despi te industrialarguments for i ts export potential ) due to boththe local environmental effects of the l ine andthe concentration of about DM 10 bi l l ion[ 5,100,000,000] of investment in just oneroute for a very few ci ties.

Second, the effect of increasing speedbecomes less marked and less signi ficant topeople’s l ives as train speed increases. AsTable 1 shows, doubl ing the average speed ofa 500 km journey from 50 km/hr to 100 km/hrsaves 5 hours (300 minutes) in travel timewhereas doubl ing the speed of that journeyfrom 150 km/hr to 300 km/hr saves only 1hour 40 minutes (100 minutes). For shorterjourneys (say, one of on ly 50 km), the savings




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in travel time are very smal l in absolute termsgiven the starting point of today’s speeds.Further major speed increases will bebeneficial for longer journeys (in practice,those to Scotland and the West Country andto/in continental Europe); in other cases theyare unl ikely to yield big time savings onshorter journeys and so affect people’s travelpatterns.

Third, there are lower cost ways of raisingl ine speeds (e.g. ti l ting trains, fewer speedrestrictions due to engineering, easing bridgeclearances and curves) which al low a givensum of investment capi tal to be used to speedup a wider range of routes, so evening out therate of convergence spatial ly.

Fourth, the decision to use rai l rather thananother method of travel (or even whether totravel at al l ) is more l ikely to be affected byother aspects of the journey (i ts cost, trainfrequency, comfort and safety, for example)than by the d iminish ing marginal time savingsfrom shorter journeys. People are unl ikely tovalue further smal l absolute increments intheir free time as much as they did the majorgains in the past. Space-time convergence maybe replaced by space-cost convergence andspace-convenience convergence.

The unevenness of space-time convergenceis therefore a contingent and not, as Janel lesuggested, a necessary effect of transportdevelopment. During the twentieth centurythis unevenness has been the product ofhistorical circumstances which gavepreeminence to increasing speed andparticularly by means of prestigious andcostly investments in new tracks and trains.Under private or state ownership there wasnever a period when there was enough capi talfor investment in more than a very few routeswhere high usage and premium fares couldguarantee a payback – mostly those to thecapi tal or primate ci ty. The short termunevenness of space-time convergence hasbeen much intensi fied by the dominantparadigm of higher maximum speeds and newtechnology. The quest for speed has tended tofuel cumulative models of economicdevelopment which are inherentlydisequi l ibriating, benefi ting more the capi talor primate ci ty, some larger ci ties and a fewwel l posi tioned smal ler towns. The quest forspeed has particularly redefined London’s rolein Great Bri tain wi th gains and losses todi fferent parts of i ts economic profi le, i tscommand-and-control functions beingespecial ly enhanced.

A de-emphasising of speed in the future (asan end in i tsel f or as a means of raisingridership or profi ts) should lead to the

Table 1: Time savings (minutes) from doubling of mean travel speed

Doubling of speed (km/hr) Time saved by speed increase (minutes)500km journey 50km journey

50 to 100 300 30100 to 200 150 15150 to 300 100 10

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adoption of less expensive methods ofattracting passengers (e.g. higher servicefrequency or integration of modes) which wi l lbe quickly affordable over more routes andless necessari ly focused on a few key routesdue to l imi ted investment funds. Theproportion of speed increases due to theadoption of expensive new technologies was amajor force in creating the unevenness ofspace-time convergence which this paper hasdemonstrated. Downplaying the quest formore speed should lead to a more evenspace-time convergence, less dominance bycapi tal or primate ci ties such as London, andmore opportuni ties for a w ider range ofsmal ler settlements. This would seem to be aworthy goal for regional economic andtransport p lanners.

Conclusions

In th is paper i t has been shown that space-time convergence – using a single transporttechnology (rai l ) – has not been a constantgeographical and historical process. Inpractice i t has the fol lowing features:

• i t w i l l continue in Great Bri tain into thenext century but wi th ever smal lerabsolute time savings;

• i t has been historical ly variable in therate of convergence wi th the inter-w arperiod being one of inadequately ac-knowledged progress using steamtechnology;

• i t has been geographical ly variable in therate of convergence, for any historicalperiod affecting some large ci tes (andincreasingly some smal ler towns enroute to them) more than others;

• the hypothesis of space-time

convergence being faster for large ci testhan smal l ones is not proved because i tis too simple a model of the pattern oftransport investment;

• i t has occurred under condi tions ofprivate semi-competi tive ownership(before and after rai lway national isation)and publ ic ownership of the rai lwaysystem;

• the era of space-time convergence onmost Bri tish routes may be replaced byspace-cost or space-convenienceconvergence; and

• a de-emphasising of the quest for speed(and i ts replacement by other cheaperways of improving rai l travel) wi l lspread economic development morewidely and benefi t London lessdisproportionately.

References

Clawson, M. (1972) America’s land and i t usesJohns Hopkins Press, Bal timore.Doe, B (1998) ‘Fastest times from or toLondon’ in Modern Rai lways Ian Al lenPubl ish ing, Hersham, Surrey (June) p. 408.Haggett, P. (1983) Geography: a modernsynthesis 3r d edn, Harper & Row, London.Janel le, D.G. (1968) ‘Central placedevelopment in a time-space framework’ inProfessional Geographer 20(1), 5-10.____ (1969) ‘Spatial reorganisation: a modeland concept’ Annals of the Association ofAmerican Geographers 59(2), 348-364.Lloyd, P. & Dicken, P. (1977) Location inspace: a theoretical approach to economicgeography 2nd edn, Harper & Row, London.McHale, J. (1969) The future of the futureGeorge Brazi l ler, New York.

[18]

Address for correspondence:Prof. Dr.-Ing. Helmut Holzapfel,University of Kassel,FB 13,34109 Kassel,Germanyfax:+49 561 804 3599Email:[email protected]

Prof. Dr. Richard Vahrenkamp,University of Kassel,FB 07,34109 Kassel,Germanyfax:+49 561 804 3027Email: [email protected]

An appraisal of decreased depth of production ontraffic demand: development of a model

Helmut HolzapfelProf. Dr, Department of Town & Country Planning, Universi ty GH Kassel .

Richard VahrenkampProf. Dr., Department of Economics, Universi ty GH Kassel .

labour wi th just-in-time production processeshas an influence on transport worthmentioning at al l (e.g. Dieckmann, 1992).These points are addressed in an attempt tounderstand the dynamics of the division oflabour and the growth of traffic.

The division of labour in nearly al lproduction systems increases rapidly so thatthe depth of production (Fertigungstiefe) isfurther reduced. Car manufacturers (e.g.Volkswagen or Opel/GM in Germany) have inrecent years cri tical ly reduced their depth ofproduction in this way. The proportion of in-house production remaining varies dependingon how i t is calculated but clearly l ies below50%. Even wi th a product as apparentlysimple as a yogurt destined for the breakfasttable, the chain of suppl iers has assumed analmost implausible dimension (Böge, 1995).This development is further characterised by areduction in the depth of production at eachlevel ; even the suppl iers of suppl iers aretrying to introduce ‘ lean production’ byafrming out component production andconcentrating on core business activi ty.

Discussion

We are now able to assess the effects ofreducing the depth of production using a

The authors wish tothank Dr. GiselaHi l lmann, Depar tmentof Urban Planning,Universi ty GH Kassel forencouraging thediscussion which led tothis paper

Abstract

In recent d iscussions about fu ture trafficgrowth in Europe, i t is general ly assumed thatrates of increase, especial ly of road freighttraffic, are overestimated. Sometimes i t isvigorously denied that the ever increasingdivision of labour w i th just-in-timeproduction processes has an influence ontransport worth mentioning at al l . Thesepoints are addressed in an attempt to seek anunderstanding of the dynamics of the d ivisionof labour and the growth of traffic. Atheoretical model is produced which lead todeductions.

K ey words

Europe, freight, production model , theory

Introduction

In recent d iscussions about fu ture trafficgrowth in Europe i t is general ly assumed thatrates of increase, especial ly of road freighttraffic, are overestimated. Sometimes even theextremely moderate predictions l ike thosefrom the official EU Statistical Pocketbook(10% more freight every 5 years) are seen asexcessively high. Sometimes i t is vigorouslydenied that the ever increasing division of

Figure 1: Model of a production chain

Holzapfel & Vahrenkamp: An

appraisal of decreased depth of

production on traffic demand:

development of a model


5/2 [1999] 18-20

[19]

model . There are several kinds ofrelationships between the final manufacturerand their suppl iers. Figure 1 demonstrates afew ideal ised and systematical ly definedexamples which are based on analysis ofactual manufacturing processes, such as thewel l know n yogurt example. Theoretical ly theproduction procurement chain can beinfini tely long. However this has no relevancefor the case presented here. The endlessregression down the chain of production isbest presented using input/output models.The resul ts can be summed by matrixmul tipl ication to calculate the LeontiefInverse.

Each example depicts making a product onthree manufacturing levels. It is assumed thatat each production level one third of the valueof the product is produced. The so cal leddepth of production at each level amounts toabout 33% and in the fi rst example this isval id for each stage of production.Realistical ly such a simple example of themanufacture of a product is unl ikely to exist.Examples B and C consist of forms of thedivision of labour already fami l iar to us. Inexample B the number of suppl iers (from 4 to2) is reduced further down the chain ofproduction; in example C i t rises and thedivision of labour is greater at the suppl iersthan at the end producer.

The production chain wi l l vary accordingto the product. In present day representativecases of industrial production there areusual ly more suppl iers than in the examples

Figure 2: Model of a typical industrial supply structure

given above. Wi th the pot of yogurt there areat least 12 direct suppl iers involved and forthe suppl iers of the pots, for example, thereare at least 12 more suppl iers (Böge, 1995).

Analysis

If we analyse what happens w hen the depth ofproduction is reduced by hal f and we assumejust 4 suppl iers, who in turn each supply 4suppl iers (which is a relatively smal lassumption), th is underestimates the realamount of growth (Figure 2).

In order to analyse the increase in suppl ierrelationships in a simple model formula, weassume the number of suppl iers at each stageto be equal and introduce the fol lowingelements.

LetS = number of suppl iers at each stage; andN = number of production stages

Using this model formula we can identi fyS1 = suppl iers from Stage 2 to Stage 1S2 = suppl iers from Stage 3 to Stage 2

and in generalSk = suppl iers from Stage k+1 to Stage k

Using the binomial formula, the numbers ofsuppl iers at al l stages can be total led asfol lows:

N-1 SN - 1∑ Si = ———— -1

i=1 S - 1

If the depth of production is reduced in th ismodel , the number of production stages arethereby increased to N2, and this resul tsaccording to the above formula in

SN2 - 1= ———— -1 ‘Transport Relationships’

S - 1

The factor of increase in transportrelationships achieved through reducing thedepths of production can be described as acombination of both formulae. We cal l thisfactor F

TR and calculate i t as fol lows:

SN2-1 - 1F

TR= ————— ≈ SN2-N

SN-1 - 1

A halving of the depths of production at eachlevel and wi th i t a consequent doubl ing of thestages of production, where N2 = 2* N, resul ts






5/2 [1999] 18-20

[20]

in the factor FTR

= SN. Where there are foursuppl iers, S = 4, a doubl ing of the stages ofproduction from three (corresponding to a16.5% depth of production) leads to anincrease in transport relationships at a factorof F

TR = 43 = 64. A halving of the depths of

production wi th six suppl iers resul ts in thefactor F

TR = 63 = 216; and where S = 7 a factor

of 343.

Conclusion

The increase in transport relationships,however, does not defini tely mean acorresponding increase in the amount oftraffic (here we need speci fic informationabout the product). Nevertheless, deductionsmade from the function relationships givesrise to the thesis that the reduction in depth ofproduction has considerable influence ontraffic and generates a new, higher degree oftransport relationships. Th is is especial ly true

when the number of intermediate producers isalready high and numerous suppl iers arepresent at each suppl ier level and when theprevail ing depth of production is already verysmal l .

References

Böge, S. (1995) ‘The w el l -travel led yogurt pot:lessons for new freight transport pol icies andregional production’ World Transpor t Pol icy &Practice vol . 1, no. 1.Commission of the European Communi ties(1998) Transpor t in Figures – StatisticalPocketbook CEC, Luxembourg.Dieckmann, A. (1992) ‘The market economyin traffic as ecological and economicdeterminant of a balanced division of labour’Wirtschaftsdienst 11, pp. 562-5.Holzapfel , H. (1992) ‘Freight traffic and thel imi ts of the division of labour’Wirtschaftsdienst 11, pp. 555-8.






5/2 [1999] 18-20

[21]

Abstract

Scenarios for the European transport sectorare used to examine the impact ontransboundary air pol lution of a range ofvehicle emission standards, technologies anddemand management measures and toproduce estimates of national emissions in theUN/ECE region. This paper demonstrates thepossible reductions in emissions of n i trogenoxides and volatile organic compounds whichcould be achieved using di fferent pol icyinstruments.

K ey words

Business-as-usual , Europe, environmental lysustainable transport, long-rangetransboundary air pol lution, transportscenarios, technology, UN/ECE region

Introduction

Air pol lution from the transport sector hasimportant heal th and environmental effects. Itis a main source of n i trogen oxides (NO

X),

sulphur dioxide (SO2), volati le organic

compounds (VOCs), particulate matter (PM)and carbon monoxide (CO), and is a majoremitter of carbon dioxide (CO

2) and other

greenhouse gases. The transport sector is amain contributor to global , regional and localair pol lution. The rates of growth in road andair transport both regional ly and global ly areindicative of a non-sustainable trend.

The long-range movement of air pol lu tantsfrom the transport sector, such as emissions ofsulphur and n i trogen oxides, has resul ted inacid deposi tion. Transboundary air pol lu tionhas caused widespread acidi fication ofterrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, which hashad impacts on human heal th, cropproductivi ty, forest growth, biodiversi ty andman-made materials. The Uni ted Nations’Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)Convention on Long-range Transboundary AirPol lution (LRTAP) (1979) provides theframework for control l ing and reducing

Scenarios for Transboundary Air Pol lutants fromthe Transport Sector in Europe

Gary Haq and Peter Bai leyStockholm Environment Insti tu te at the Universi ty of York

Address for correspondence:Gary HaqStockholm EnvironmentInstituteUniversity of YorkYorkYO10 5YWFax: 01904 432898Email: [email protected]

damage to human heal th and the environmentcaused by transboundary air pol lu tion. TheConvention came into force in 1993 and hasbeen extended by five speci fic protocols onni trogen oxides, sulphur and volati le organiccompounds.

This paper is based on a study funded bythe Swedish Environmental ProtectionAgency on air pol lution from the transportsector in Europe (Haq and Bai ley, 1998). Thestudy was commissioned as a contribution tothe UN/ECE Task Force on IntegratedAssessment M odel l ing (TFIAM), w hichsupports the LRTAP Convention. The finalresul ts of the study were presented at thetwenty-second meeting of the TFIAM whichwas held in London in December 1998.

This paper examines how emissions oftransboundary air pol lutants (excludinggreenhouse gases) from the transport sectorcan be reduced in Europe through theappl ication of d i fferent vehicle emissionstandards, technologies and demandmanagement measures. Scenario analysis isused to produce estimates of national emis-sions of transboundary air pol lutants in theUN/ECE region.

T raffic growth

Since the early 1980s the road transport offreight and passengers in the European Unionhas increased by roughly 45% and 41%respectively. In contrast, the transport offreight by rai l has decreased whi le passengerrail transport has increased by 10%. In theperiod 1970-1993 passenger transport in themember states of the European Union (EU)grew at an annual rate of 3.2%. The averagedistance travel led every day by each Europeanci tizen in this period increased from 16.5 kmto 31.5 km. This growth in the demand totravel has been met mainly by the motorvehicle, which now accounts for 75% of al lki lometres travel led in the EU. Car ownershipin the period 1975-1995 grew from 232 per1000 people to 435 per 1000 people (EC,

The authors wish toacknowledge thesuppor t of the SwedishEnvironmentalProtection Agency whofunded the study onwhich th is paper isbased. They are gratefulto Lars Lindau of theAgency and themembers of the UN/ECETask Force on IntegratedAssessment Model l ing(TFIAM) for thei rhelpful comments. Thefinal resul ts of th is studywere presented at the22nd meeting of TFIAMin 1998.

Haq & Bailey: Scenarios for

Transboundary Ai r Poll utants from

the Transport Sector in Europe


5/2 [1999] 21-27

mailto:[email protected]

[22]

integrated assessment models (Bai ley, 1996).The scenarios focus mainly on road

transport (motorcycles, l ight duty and heavy-duty vehicles), boats, ships and trains.Aircraft and off-road machinery are notincluded in the scenarios. The scenariosexamine the impact on air pollution of a rangeof vehicle EU emission standards (the socal led Euro I, II, III and IV standards) andtechnologies to produce estimates of nationalemissions of transboundary air pol lutants inthe UN/ECE region. EC Directive 70/220/EEClays down the technical requirements for l ightduty motor vehicles and the l imi t values forcarbon monoxide and unburnt hydrocarbonemissions from the engines of motor vehicles.Over the past 25 years these requirementshave been made more stringent by a series ofamendments. Euro I l imi ts came into effect in1993 and meant that al l new petrol carsneeded to be fi tted wi th a three-way catalyticconverter; Euro II, which were separate l imi tsfor petrol and diesel cars, came into force in1997; Euro III standards are expected to comeinto force in 2000; and Euro IV emissionl imi ts are expected to come into force in 2005.The exact l imi ts for Euro III and Euro IV haveyet to be approved.

Business-as-usual scenarioThe business-as-usual scenario (BAU) for2010 and 2030 is based on a continuation ofpresent trends in transport taking intoconsideration expected changes in vehicleemission legislation. It can thus be consideredas a base case scenario. The key assumptionsfor the BAU 2010 and 2030 scenario are:

• an increase in total vehicle ki lometrestravel led according to OECD (1995)figures presented in Table 3;

• no signi ficant change in occupancy rate;• no signi ficant change in modal shi ft;• al l vehicle categories meet SEI’s

interpretation of the forthcoming Euro IIIstandards;

• a reduction in the sulphur content offuel;

• an improvement in fuel efficiency forpetrol cars of 5 l i tres/100 km and 4.5 l/100 km for diesel engines; and

• a 10% increase in fuel efficiency forheavy duty vehicles.

Technology scenarioThe 2010 technology scenario assumes thattechnology w i l l be used to improve fuelefficiency, fuel qual i ty and meet SEI’sinterpretation of the forthcoming Euro III andEuro IV emission standards. The technologiesused in this scenario are aimed at reducing

Table 1: Contribution of road transport to totalanthropogenic NO

X emissions (1990)

Countr y Road tr afficAustria 68%Belgium 55%Denmark 37%Germany 62%Finland 44%France 65%Greece 21%Ireland 38%Italy 46%Luxembourg 40%Netherlands 47%Portugal 48%Spain 41%Sweden 47%United Kingdom 50%

Source: Corinair (1990)

1995). Table 1 presents the contribution ofroad transport to total anthropogenic NO

X

emissions in 1990.In Western Europe forecasts in transport

growth for a business-as-usual scenarioindicate that the demand for freight andpassenger transport by road could doublebetween 1990 and 2010. The number of carscould increase by 25 – 30% and annual carki lometres travel led could increase by 25%.The growth rate in air transport is alsoexpected to increase by 182% during theperiod 1990-2010 (EC, 1992). This growth,together wi th the expected expansion inmobi l i ty and car ownership in Central andEastern European (CEE) countries, wi l l mean asigni ficant increase in energy consumptionand transport-related air pol lution.

T ransport scenarios for Europe

To examine how emissions of transboundaryair pol lutants from the transport sector can bereduced in Europe through the appl ication ofdi fferent pol icy measures, three scenarios forthe transport sector were developed:

• a business-as-usual scenario (focusing onthe years 2010 and 2030);

• a technology scenario (2010 and 2030);and

• an environmental ly sustainable transportscenario (2030).

In the development of the scenarios,datasets of activi ty levels and energy used bythe transport sector in UN/ECE countries,which have been bui l t up over a number ofyears at the Stockholm Environment Insti tute(SEI), were used. The datasets have been usedfor estimating future emissions from thetransport sector (Bai ley, 1995) and forconstructing abatement cost curves for use in





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the transboundary air pol lutants and are notdirected at reducing greenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide. A technology scenario for2030 is undertaken for a selected number ofcountries. The technology 2030 scenario hasthe same assumptions as the 2010 scenario,except al l the vehicle categories meet Euro IVstandards. The key assumptions for thetechnology scenarios are:

• traffic growth as predicted in thebusiness-as-usual scenario (2010 and2030);

• 50% of each vehicle category meets Euroemission standards III and IV. For the2030 scenario al l vehicle categories meetEuro IV standards;

• a 15% shi ft from petrol to diesel for l ightduty vehicles. It is assumed that this ismotivated by cl imate change pol icyconcerns (al though i t does havepotential ly negative impl ications forlocal air qual i ty);

• an improvement in fuel efficiency forpetrol cars of 5 l /100 km and 4.5 l/100km for diesel engines;

• a 10% increase in fuel efficiency forheavy duty vehicles;

• a reduction in the sulphur content offuel;

• 6% of the vehicle fleet uses al ternativefuels (electric (1%) and hybrid cars(5%));

• al l urban buses run on compressednatural gas (approximately 5% of heavyduty vehicles are diesel buses). The useof natural gas is the favoured option inmany European countries; however,others are considering biofuels (such asalcohols or fuel derived from oi lseedrape). This scenario simply assumes thatcompressed natural gas will be favoured.

Environmental ly sustainable transportWhat actual ly consti tutes an environmental lysustainable transport (EST) system has beendiscussed w idely in the l i terature (Roberts etal., 1992; RCEP, 1994; SEPA, 1997; Haq, 1997;

Whi telegg, 1997). In 1996 the OECD in i tiateda study on EST and defined i t astransportation which does not endangerpubl ic heal th or ecosystems and meets needsfor access consistent wi th:1. use of renewable resources at below the rate of regeneration; and2. use of non-renewable resources below the rates of development of renewable substi tutes (OECD, 1996).

The OECD identi fied a number ofobjectives for an EST:

• an 80% reduction in carbon dioxideemissions between 1990-2030;

• a 90% reduction in ni trogen oxideemissions between 1990-2030;

• a 90% reduction in volati le organiccompounds between 1990-2030;

• a 90% reduction in particulate matter(PM

10) between 1990-2030;

• a negl igible level of noise nuisance by2030;

• stabi l isation of direct land use fortransport outside urban areas between1990 and 2030; a good l iving cl imateinside urban areas in 2030; indirect landuse in 2030 represents hal f of the 1990level.

The EST scenario adopts the OECDs targetsfor NO

X and VOCs.

Calculation of vehicle emissions

In the development of the scenarios OECD(1995) growth rates were used. This was doneto give consistency across Europe instead ofusing national sources of forecasts. Inpractice, very few countries produce suchforecasts in a readi ly accessible form (i f at al l )and the use of the OECD study has theadvantage that an estimate is automatical lyavailable for al l countries. The OECD growthrates used are perhaps over-pessimistic ofwhat is general ly suggested in many studies.However, this is offset by the improvement infuel efficiency for petrol cars of 5 l /100 kmand 4.5 l/100 km for diesel engines and a 10%increase in fuel efficiency for heavy dutyvehicles, which is probably an optimisticinterpretation of what is possible.

Emission factorsThe emission factors used in each scenariowere EC standards for Light Duty Vehicles(LDVs) and Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs)(Greening, 1998; pers comm.). Tables 4 and 5present the l imi ts for HDVs and LDVs as apercentage of the ini tial EC standard. ForHDVs Euro IV is taken as an 85% reduction.HDV gasol ine have the same percentage

Table 3: Annual growth rates of motor vehicle kilometres travelled (%)

1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030Europe 2.6 2.1 1.1 1.0CEE Countries 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6Source: OECD, 1995

Table 2: Annual growth rates in motor vehicle stock (%)

1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030Europe 2.4 2.0 1.0 1.0CEE Countries 5.1 4.5 3.7 3.5Source: OECD, 1995





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reductions as HDV diesel . The reductions inTable 6 for l ight duty diesel vehicles appear tobe large because the basel ine of Regulation15.04 is used. In practice, many LDV dieselvehicles outperformed the 15.04 standard.This is not a problem for the studymethodology, as emission factors in g/km areused for the di fferent Euro standards toestimate vehicle emissions for each scenario.

Emissions from trains, boats and ships areestimated on the basis of fuel use in 1994 (oran earl ier year such as 1992 i f later data werenot avai lable). This parameter has not beenprojected to the year 2010 or 2030 and i t issimply assumed that present fuel levels by rai land marine traffic remain constant. Emissionsfrom boats and ships relate to domestic (i .e.national) marine transport activi ty emissionsfrom marine activi ty in the North Sea, Bal ticSea and Atlantic Ocean are not estimated.

Methodological considerations

A large amount of data is required to produceestimates for al l European countries. In somecases data are not avai lable al though thissi tuation has improved considerably in thelast five years as more statistics for CEEcountries have been collated by internationalbodies such as UN/ECE. The avai labi l i ty oftraffic data for CEE countries was sti l l l imi tedin some cases, especial ly for the RussianFederation and Ukraine.

Overal l , the accuracy of the resul ts forEuropean Union countries is probably notconstrained by the avai labi l i ty of data - themethodology is probably the l imi ting factorhere. This is the si tuation for other countries,for example, Norway, Swi tzerland and evensome CEE countries such as Poland or theCzech Republ ic. However, i t is more l ikelythat data qual i ty has a larger impact on theremaining countries and that, overal l , thequal i ty of the estimates of fu ture emissions forthese countries is poorer. One general point isconcerned wi th 1990 emission data. Thesedata were used both for 1990 transport sectorNO

X and VOCs emissions in the EST scenario.

The 1990 emission data were necessary toprovide a reference level for emissionreductions. Occasional ly, the data were onlyavailable at the national level or the pedigreeof the data has been questioned elsewhere.Any errors in these 1990 reference levelemission data have impl ications for the targetlevels in the various scenarios and the resul tsshould be in terpreted wi th th is in mind.

Table 4:HDV emission reductions (gasoline anddiesel) as a percentage of initial EC standard

Standard Year NOX

HC CO PMReg. 49 1980 0 0 0 0Euro I 1991 56% 56% 68% 0Euro II 1993 61% 56% 71% 58%Euro III 2000 72% 74% 85% 72%Euro IV 2005 85% 85% 85% 85%

Table 5:LDV emission reductions (gasoline) as apercentage of initial EC standard

Standard Year NOX

HC CO PMEC 1504 1983 0 0 0 0Euro I 1991 82% 82% 87% 48%Euro II 1996 91% 91% 89% 63%Euro III 2000 94% 94% 91% 81%Euro IV 2005 97% 97% 96% 89%

Table 6:LDV emission reductions (diesel) as apercentage of initial EC standard

Standard Year NOX

HC CO PMEC 1504 1983 0 0 0 0Euro I 1991 82% 87% 89% 48%Euro II 1996 83% 88% 96% 63%Euro III 2000 90% 92% 97% 81%Euro IV 2005 94% 96% 98% 89%

Table 7: Summary table of oxides of nitrogen tail pipe emissions (NO2 equivalents)

(Kilotonnes)

Countr y 1990* BAU 2010 Change Tech 2010 ChangeAustria 154 36 -76% 28 -82%Belgium 190 76 -60% 53 -72%Denmark 102 49 -52% 31 -70%Finland 119 30 -75% 22 -82%France 1038 278 -73% 208 -80%Germany 1630 415 -75% 307 -81%Greece 114 78 -32% 53 -53%Ireland 44 17 -61% 13 -71%Italy 946 215 -77% 164 -83%Luxembourg 9 7 -17% 6 -35%Netherlands 272 125 -54% 90 -67%Portugal 107 36 -67% 27 -75%Spain 512 260 -49% 179 -65%Sweden 163 42 -74% 32 -81%United Kingdom 1383 435 -69% 316 -77%

EU 15 6783 2099 -69% 1529 -77%

Belarus 34 18Bulgaria** 137 13 -91% 9 -93%Croatia** 28 18 -36% 8 -71%Czech Republic** 143 40 -72% 23 -84%Estonia** 40 14 -65% 9 -78%Hungary** 94 35 -63% 26 -72%Latvia** 25 18 -28% 13 -48%Lithuania** 53 16 -70% 13 -75%Macedonia 6 3Moldova 2 1Norway 84 67 -20% 40 -52%Poland** 243 70 -71% 51 -79%Romania** 50 44 -12% 25 -50%Russian Federation 1582 893Slovakia** 56 7 -88% 5 -91%Slovenia** 34 3 -91% 2 -94%Switzerland 101 37 -63% 30 -70%Ukraine 341 251* Corinair** Road transport only





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[25]

unl ikely to be sufficient to achieve reductionsin pol luting emissions. A wide range of otherpol icy measures has been appl ied (often at alocal scale) in many European countries.These provide evidence of how the demandand need to travel can be reduced and howtransport can become more sustainable.

The EST scenario assumes that a 90%reduction in the emissions of NO

X and VOCs

by 2030 and that the national Kyoto targets areachieved. The EST scenarios for Sweden andHungary are presented here.

SwedenTables 9 and 10 present the NO

X and VOC

emissions for Sweden. The lowest reductionin NO

X (69%) and VOC (75%) emissions is

achieved in the BAU 2030 scenarios. Thehighest reduction in NO

X (83%) and VOC

(87%) emissions is achieved in the technology2030 scenario. A further 7% reduction in NO

X

and 3% reduction in VOC emissions arerequired in order to meet the EST target(Figure 1).

Table 8:Summary table of VOCs tail pipe emissions (Kilotonnes)

Countr y 1990* BAU 2010 Change Tech 2010 ChangeAustria 114 29 -75% 22 -81%Belgium 189 40 -79% 29 -85%Denmark 99 24 -76% 17 -83%Finland 73 21 -71% 16 -78%France 1170 224 -81% 170 -85%Germany 1234 286 -77% 238 -81%Greece 137 43 -69% 34 -75%Ireland 62 9 -85% 7 -89%Italy 954 199 -79% 152 -84%Luxembourg 10 6 -40% 5 -54%Netherlands 184 57 -69% 43 -77%Portugal 81 24 -71% 18 -78%Spain 449 127 -72% 93 -79%Sweden 154 32 -79% 24 -84%United Kingdom 982 216 -78% 159 -84%

EU 15 5892 1337 -77% 1027 -83%

Belarus 16 10Bulgaria** 74 12 -84% 9 -88%Croatia** 37 8 -78% 5 -86%Czech Republic** 53 24 -55% 16 -70%Estonia** 28 5 -82% 3 -89%Hungary** 79 23 -71% 17 -78%Latvia** 33 6 -82% 5 -85%Lithuania** 45 8 -82% 7 -84%Macedonia 3 2Moldova 1 1Norway 88 24 -73% 16 -82%Poland** 248 47 -81% 35 -86%Romania** 76 15 -80% 10 -87%Russian Federation 682 525Switzerland 88 31 -65% 25 -72%Slovakia** 40 4 -90% 3 -93%Slovenia 2 2Ukraine 162 126* Corinair** Road transport only

Figure 1: Sweden: Emissions of nitrogen oxides

Table 10: VOC emissions (Kilotonnes)

Sweden Reduction

Scenario 1990 2010 2030 2010 2030BAU 154 32 39 79% 75%Tech - 24 21 84% 87%EST - - 15 - 90%

Results

In the Business-as-usual (2010) scenariopresent trends and agreed legislation shouldgive emission reductions of approximately70% for NO

X and 75% for VOCs compared to

1990 levels; however, many countries arel ikely to experience an increase in CO

2

emissions. Tables 7 and 8 presents theemissions of VOCs and NO

X for each of the

BAU and technology scenarios.The technology scenario assumes that new

emissions technology, aimed at reducingtransboundary air pol lutants, wi l l beimplemented on a wide basis and wi l lperform effectively in service. If this is thecase, many countries could achieve an 80 –85% reduction in NO

X emissions. This

scenario has concentrated on technologies forreducing regional pol lutants; therefore,compared to the BAU scenario CO

2 emissions

are not reduced signi ficantly.The environmental ly sustainable transport

scenario highl ights that technology alone is

Table 9:NOX emissions (Kilotonnes)

Sweden Reduction

Scenario 1990 2010 2030 2010 2030BAU 163 42 50 74% 69%Tech - 32 28 81% 83%EST - - 16 - 90%

[26]

HungaryTables 11 and 12 present the NO

X and VOC

emissions for Hungary. The lowest reductionin NO

X (28%) and VOC (41%) emissions is

achieved in the BAU 2030. The highestreduction in NO

X (78%) and VOC (83%)

emissions is achieved in the post-Kyoto 2030scenario. A further 12% reduction in NO

X and

7% reduction in VOC emissions are requiredin order to meet the EST target (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Hungary: Emissions of nitrogen oxides

Table 11: NOX emissions (Kilotonnes)

Hungary Reduction

Scenario 1990 2010 2030 2010 2030BAU 94* 35 68 63% 28%Tech - 26 38 73% 60%EST - - 9 - 90%* Road transport only

Table 12: VOC emissions (Kilotonnes)

Hungary Reduction

Scenario 1990 2010 2030 2010 2030BAU 79* 23 47 70% 41%Tech 17 25 78% 69%EST 8 90%* Road transport only

Conclusion

Transport has important impl ications for airpol lution and human heal th. In WesternEurope forecasts in transport growth indicatethat the demand for freight and passengertransport by road could double between 1990and 2010. The number of cars could increaseby 25 – 30% and annual car ki lometrestravel led could increase by 25% (EC, 1992).Improvements in vehicle technology can, to acertain extent, reduce vehicle-related

pol lution; however, this wi l l not be enough tomeet EST targets such as a 90% reduction inNO

X and VOCs emissions by 2030.

The projected increase in car ownershipand use in Europe and the rel iance on fossi lfuels mean that, in the absence of pol icymeasures directed towards reducing the needand demand to travel , there wi l l be a consider-able increase in oi l -based fuel consumptionand vehicle-related pol lution. High rates ofgrowth in both freight and passenger traffic inEurope are indicative of a non-sustainabletrend. This wi l l have signi ficant impl icationsfor emissions of NO

X and VOCs, and regional

air pol lu tion.The scenarios examined provide a

comprehensive attempt at exploring futuresfor regional air pol lutants from the transportsector in Europe. A l though the methodologyused in the scenario analysis was less detai ledcompared to many national studies, thescenarios do provide useful data forcomparing the impl ications of certain pol icymeasures in di fferent European countries on abroadly consistent basis. The avai labi l i ty ofdata for Central and Eastern European hasimproved over the last five years; however,there sti l l remains a number of gaps in datawhich influenced the calculations ofemissions for some CEE countries in thisstudy.

Stricter emission standards, fuel qual i tystandards and impl ied technological controlsdo appear to have an important role to p lay inreducing regional air pol lu tion, assuming thattechnologies perform in service and thatadvances are made in emission controls fordiesel vehicles in the next five to ten years.However, other pol icy measures are requiredas the expected increase in mobi l i ty and carownership wi l l reduce the benefi ts achievedwi th the introduction of new technologies. Agreater scope exists for adopting pol icymeasures directed towards reducing the needand demand to travel . A number of measures(e.g. car free zones, park and ride, reduced carparking and increased provision and use ofpubl ic transport) are already beingimplemented successful ly at the local level ,usual ly as a direct resul t of experiencing poorair qual i ty, congestion and other effectscaused by traffic.

Transport has important impl ications fornational CO

2 reduction targets under the

Kyoto protocol . A reduction in the use ofmotorised transport wi l l not only have thebenefi ts of reducing vehicle-related airpol lution, but also noise pol lution, congestionand road accidents as wel l as improving theoveral l qual i ty of l i fe in tow ns and ci ties.





5/2 [1999] 21-27

[27]

The transport sector wi l l continue to be asigni ficant source of air pol lu tion into thenext century. The adoption of new technology,stricter standards and pol icies to reduce theuse of the motor vehicle and to encourage theuse of more environmental ly friendly modesof transport wi l l be important i f reductions invehicle-related pol lutants are to be achieved.

The scenarios demonstrate the possiblereductions in NO

X and VOCs and other

pol lutants which could be achieved usingdi fferent pol icy instruments. They alsohighl ight the potential for further actionwhich could be taken wi thin the transportsector in order to achieve a reduction inregional air pol lu tion wi th in the next twenty-five years.

References

Bai ley, P D. (1995) ‘Model l ing future vehicleexhaust emissions in Europe’ Water, Ai r andSoi l Pol lution 85: 1879-1884.____ (1996) Emissions and Abatement Costs ofNi trogen Oxides for Use in Integrated Assess-ment Models Stockholm Environment Insti -tute at York, Universi ty of York.Commission of the European Communi ties(1992) Towards Sustainabi l i ty: A EuropeanCommuni ty Programme of Pol icy and Actionin Relation to Envi ronment and SustainableDevelopment COM(92) 23 final , Vol . II., 27March. CEC, Brussels.____ (1995) The Ci tizens Network: Ful fi l l ingthe Potential of Publ ic Passenger Transpor t inEurope CEC, Brussels.Corinair database (1990) h ttp://www.eea.eu.int/Greening, P. (1998) Excel Spreadsheets on EUVehicle Emission Standards, DGIII, CEC,Brussels. Personal Communication.Haq, G. (1997) Towards Sustainable Transpor tPlanning: A Compar ison Between Bri tain and

the Nether lands Avebury Press, A ldershot.Haq, G. & Bai ley, P. (1998) Air Pol lution fromthe Transpor t Sector : A Scenar io Study forEurope Stockholm Environment Insti tute,Sweden.OECD (1995) Motor Vehicle Pol lution: Reduc-tion Strategies Beyond 2010 OECD, Paris.____ (1996) Pol lution Prevention and Control :Envi ronmental Cr i ter ia for SustainableTranspor t OECD, Paris.Roberts, J., Cleary, J., Hami l ton, K. & Hanna, J.(eds.) (1992) Travel Sickness: The Need for aSustainable Transpor t Pol icy for Bri tainLawrence and Wishart, London.Royal Commission on Environmental Pol lu-tion (1994) Eighteenth Repor t: Transpor t andthe Envi ronment HMSO, London.SEPA (1997) Towards an Envi ronmental lySustainable Transpor t System SwedishEnvironmental Protection Agency, Stockholm.Whitelegg, J. (1997) Critical Mass: Transport,Society and Envi ronment in the 21st CenturyPluto Press, London.





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The Effects of Strategic Network Changes onTraffic

Steve Purnel l , Ji l l ian Beardwood and John El l iottTransportation and Development Department, Greater London Counci l

“ the remarkable manner in which new roadscreate new traffic”. According to the study,immediately after the Great West Road wasopened in 1925 i t “carried 41/

2 times more

vehicles than the old route was carrying; nodiminution, however, occurred in the flow(sic) of traffic along the old route, and fromthat day to this, the number of vehicles onboth routes has steadi ly increased” . Thisphenomenon, recognised nearly fi fty yearsago, is no less conspicuous today.

In the past, much emphasis has beenplaced on bui lding new roads in towns. Thispol icy is based on the premise that trafficgrowth occurs natural ly, due to factors such asrising incomes and increased car ownership(and, fol lowing from those, a decrease in theuse of publ ic transport leading to higher faresand reduced services) and that, unless newroads are planned to cater for such growth,there would be detrimental economic andenvironmental consequences. However,contrary to this is the view that, i f trafficgrowth does occur natural ly then increasingthe supply of road space wi l l reinforce thegrowth process not on ly by encouraging travelby car and reducing travel by publ ic transport,but in the longer term by encouragingincreased car ownership and locationalchanges. This effect would be even moremarked in areas of suppressed demand wherethe supply of new road capaci ty wouldremove any constraints on traffic growth.

Presenting a detai led account of exactlyhow traffic volumes adjust to the amount ofroad space avai lable is a precarious task. Inthe past, few efforts have been made toestimate the effects of constructing newinfrastructure on traffic volumes. This isdespi te recommendations made in the Lei tchCommittee Report which stated the fol lowing:

“We are convinced that before and afterstudies form a valuable check on forecast-ing and evaluation procedures, and we aresurprised that the Department has notthought i t w orthwhi le to pursue them inthe past. We therefore recommend thatprocedures should be establ ished for the

Address for correspondence:Eco-Logica Ltd.,53 Derwent Road,Lancaster,LA1 3ES,U.K.Email: [email protected]

Purnell, Beardwood & Elli ott: The

Effects of Strategic Network

Changes on Traffic


5/2 [1999] 28-48

Abstract

The Department of Transport’s Counsel at thePubl ic Inquiry into a section of the NorthCircular Road in 1985 stated that “… theproper way to advance the [GLC] case is toput their evidence before the Secretary ofState, to put their evidence before theGovernment and say “This is the resul t of ourresearch; your pol icy for roads should beamended accordingly - at least i t should bereconsidered on the basis of this evidence’ .”In response to this recommendation the GLCpresented this paper to the DoT. TheSecretary of State, Nicholas Ridley,responded: “No attempt has been made ei therto assess the benefi ts which addi tional trafficmight bring to the communi ty as a whole orto evaluate i ts adverse effects” … “we have nointention of building urban motorways” …“ the [Government does not] disregard theviews of Londoners” .

The paper was presented to the TransportCommittee of the GLC on 10th July1985. The Committee recommended i tspubl ication on a w ide basis. Soonafter, the GLC was abol ished despi teapproximately three-quarters of Londonerscanvassed being opposed.

This paper was tested and accepted by theStanding Advisory Committee onTrunk Road Assessment in their 1994 report“Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic” .The Government accepted the SACTRAreport.

K ey words

Cost-benefi t analysis, infrastructure supply,London, traffic generation, transport demand,trunk roads

Introduction

It has long been considered that theconstruction of major new roads wi l l generatetraffic. As early as 1937 an official study ofLondon’s roads (C.H. Bressey, 1937) noted

[29]

execution of before and after studies andthat a programme of such studies be drawnup and implemented.”This report provides evidence from such

information as is currently avai lable to showthat the creation of major new road spacegenerates traffic.

Avai labi l i ty of T raffic Data

For an effective analysis of how trafficcharacteristics change in response to theintroduction of new highway faci l i ties, i t isessential that rel iable historic traffic data forthe area is avai lable.

GLC Traff ic Moni toringThe Intel l igence Uni t wi th in the GreaterLondon Counci l has been regularly col lectingand processing traffic data since 1968. Al imi ted amount of data was col lected before1968 but the Intel l igence Uni t do not considerthis to be rel iable or comparable wi th datacol lected from later surveys. The threemethods used are:

i ) a series of manual counts carried out at

two- or three-yearly intervals on everyroad which crosses a pattern of cordonsand screenl ines wi thin the GreaterLondon Area (see Figure 2);

i i ) permanent automatic traffic countersinstal led at a number of points on themain roads of Greater London; and

i i i ) l ink count and speed studies carriedout in three-yearly cycles for aselected road network covering thewhole of Greater London (see Figure 3).

The information gathered from this seriesof surveys is summarised at regular intervalsin the Traffic Moni toring Review, whichpresents a picture of the current trafficsi tuation and the changes over the years. Themost recent of these reviews comprises theresul ts of al l phases of the programme whichwere completed up to the end of 1983.

The data col lected by the Intel l igence Uni thas been the major source of in formation forthis report.

GLTSIn addi tion to the data described above, a vastamount of information is avai lable from the

Figure 1: Location of Road schemes analysed



Changes on Traffic


5/2 [1999] 28-48

[30]

Figure 2: Location of cordons and screenlines in Greater London

Figure 3: Link count and speed study areas

The use of traffic counts in GLTS is re-stricted to supplementing and val idating othersurveys and traffic speeds are not surveyed inGLTS at al l . For these reasons GLTS data hasnot been w idely used in th is report. However,information from the 1962 survey has proveduseful for comparison purposes wi th datacol lected at a later date.

Past studiesIt is rare for a comprehensive before-and-afterstudy to be carried out when a new road isopened. An exception was the opening ofWestway, a motorway-standard road leadinginto central London opened in July 1970 (seebelow). Other schemes which have beenstudied in this way include the opening of thenew Blackwal l Tunnel and the southernapproach roads in 1969 which w asaccompanied by an internal GLC study,i l lustrating the effects on traffic crossing thelower Thames. In recent years, HertfordshireCounty Counci l has carried out a series ofbefore-and-after studies to analyse the trafficeffects of new road schemes in Hertfordshire.Where relevant, information from thesestudies has been used in the preparation ofthis report.

The value of studies such as these wasclearly recognised by the Lei tch Committeeand particular attention was paid to theapparent reluctance of the Department ofTransport to produce such stud ies. In none ofthe studies made avai lable by the DoT for theLei tch Report is there a comparison of trafficdirectly before and after the opening of a newroad wi th flows observed a number of yearsafter the road’s opening. A report produced bythe Road Research Laboratory in 1960 (TheLondon-Bi rmingham Motorway: Traffic andEconomics) only compared predicted trafficon the M1 for June and July 1960 (seven andeight months after i t w as opened) wi th averageflows measured on the M1 during thosemonths (see Figure 4). This in i tial analysiswas not fol lowed up w i th any further analysesin order to establ ish the way in w hich trafficreacted to the new road over the years. Theinadequacy of the Department’s method ofassessing the fu ture traffic levels on new roadsis highl ighted by the fact that, in 1984, asection of the M 1 w hich was designed to dualtwo-lane standard was widened to dual four-lane.

Clearly, past stud ies are of l imi ted value ontheir own for assessing the effects of a newlyconstructed road on traffic characteristics.However, they can provide a useful startingpoint for further analysis.

Greater London Transportation Survey (GLTS)which is a series of comprehensive studies ofLondoners’ travel behaviour, fi rst set up in1962. The surveys were set up ini tial ly toassess pol icy options on strategic roadbui lding. Because of the weal th of informationthey yielded, i t was found necessary to repeatthe surveys in 1971 and 1981. The resul tswere arrived at from three main methods:

i ) home interviews based on a 2% sampleof al l households in the survey area;

i i ) roadside interviews on the GLTSboundary and along the l ine of theRiver Thames; and

i i i ) sel f completion forms handed todrivers.

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Figure 4: Actual and predicted flows on the London to Birmingham motorway (M1),1960

Components of T raffic Growth

The growth of traffic in response to theintroduction of new h ighway faci l i ties can bebroken down into two broad categories:current (or reassigned) traffic and generatedtraffic.

Current Traf ficCurrent, or ‘ reassigned’ , traffic comprisesthose vehicles currently using a road network,which would transfer to a newly constructedroad in that network. In the case of a road thathas been widened or enlarged, current trafficis composed of vehicles already using the oldroad supplemented by existing traffic fromadjacent roads. Where a newly constructedroad is introduced into the network, currenttraffic is composed entirely of existingattracted traffic. In the latter case the effect isi terative because of surplus capaci ty createdon the original road. Trips would general lytransfer to a new route in order to takeadvantage of journey time savings and theconvenience offered by the new road.

Generated Traf ficGenerated traffic comprises motor vehicletrips which would not occur were i t not forthe introduction of new highw ay faci l i ties.There are four distinct categories of trafficgeneration (see Box 1).

The occurrence of traffic generation,al though recognised as a phenomenon, is notwel l documented. C.A. O’Flaherty inHighways and Traffic quotes examples ofAmerican research which ind icate that onurban motorways generated traffic can be asmuch as 20% to 30% of current trafficvolumes, whilst on rural motorways it mayvary from 5% to 25% of current traffic.

It should be pointed out that trafficgeneration occurs not only on a newlyconstructed road, but also on those roadswhich i t rel ieves of traffic. Thus the effect isi terative, as in the case of reassignment.

An important characteristic of trafficgeneration is that, al though growth general lyoccurs wi thin a relatively short period of time(usual ly one to tw o years), i t is an effect that isincreasingly fel t in the ensuing years.Certainly redistribution and new traffic canhave bigger, long term effects because of theland use changes that may accompany theconstruction of a new road. Even withoutthese longer term effects, a road general lyneeds to have been opened for a few years,preferably at least five, i f an effective analysisis to be made of the changes in trafficcharacteristics as the traffic requires time toadjust to the opportuni ties offered by a new

Box 1: Categories of generated traffic

Redistributed trafficThis consists of trips which were previously made to entirely different destinations, or

which began at different origins, but which have changed because of the attractiveness ofthe new highway and the opportunities made available by it, e.g. a new highway mayprovide easy access to a previously unpatronised shopping centre.

Changes in modal splitThese usually occur when people perceive an advantage in using a different mode of

transport. Building a new highway facility may make a route so attractive that traffic whichformerly made the same journey by public transport may now do so by car. The amount ofconverted traffic is dependent on such factors as journey times, convenience and economy.A change in the modal split can occur in conjunction with redistribution.

New trafficThis is traffic which did not previously exist and which results entirely from the

construction of new highway facilities. In order for new traffic to be generated, the new roadwould need to offer increased convenience and accessibility between two cities maygenerate new traffic.

Development trafficThis arises when land adjacent to a major new road is developed. Such development

tends to occur at a more rapid rate than normal and the resulting ‘development’ traffic cancontribute substantially to the longer term traffic growth on new roads.

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road and reach an equi l ibrium. Studying theroad too soon after i ts opening and ignoringthe time needed for traffic to adjust may resul tin misleading data which represent only theini tial reactions to the road. This effect isclearly i l lustrated in the case of the M1.

Methodology of Analysis

Definition of study areasIn order for an effective assessment to bemade of the extent to which newlyconstructed or substantial ly improved roadsgenerate traffic, i t is important that theinfrastructure in the immediate area shouldnot have been greatly affected by other roadschemes. As far as possible, areas which havenot been affected by more than one schemehave been chosen for analysis in this report.In some instances the inclusion of traffic datawhich may have been affected by otheractivi ty in the area has been unavoidable.Where this is the case, i t has been taken intoaccount in the analysis.

For each of the roads included for analysisin this report, a corridor was defined toinclude the route i tsel f and adjacent roadswhich could be potential ly affected by theconstruction or improvement of the route. Inthe majori ty of cases, control areas weredefined in order that the traffic characteristicsof a corridor containing a newly constructed

road could be compared to a corridor wherethere has been no new road built and whichwould reflect the normal trends in trafficwi thin Greater London. However, as in thecase of the study areas themselves, i t is oftenvery di fficul t to define a comparable locationwhich has not also been affected by some roadchanges.

Roads Selected for AnalysisThe roads which were selected for analysis inthis report are:

A40(M) WestwayM11A316 (M3–A312)Blackwal l TunnelsNorth Circular Road (Hangar Lane toFal loden Way)M25 (A1(M)–M11)

Each of the above wi l l be examinedseparately. A l l the road schemes are shown inFigure 1.

Traf fic Trends in Greater LondonA large part of the analysis of the roadschemes in this report is based on changes in24-hour tw o-way traffic taken at a number ofcordons and screenl ines in Greater London. Inorder to put the resul ts of these analyses inthe context of general traffic trends whichhave occurred in Greater London as a w hole,Table 1 presents a summary of changes in 24-hour two-way traffic taken at three cordons(shown in Figure 2).

In addi tion to the 24-hour flows describedabove, extensive use has been made of a.m.peak period inbound traffic counts. Table 2presents a summary of changes in a.m. peakperiod inbound traffic for Greater London.

As a further guide to traffic growth inrecent years, Table 3 presents the nationalgrowth in motor vehicle traffic from 1973 to1982. The figures given are observed trafficlevels and form part of the basis of theNational Road Traffic Forecasts. It is general lygovernment pol icy to use national forecasts oftraffic in assessing trunk road schemes.

Results of Analysis

WestwayDescription of the RoadWestway is an urban motorway, opened totraffic on 28th July 1970. It runs forapproximately 4 km from the old Westway(A40) at Whi te Ci ty to just west of theMarylebone Flyover at Paddington. It iselevated throughout and at the time ofopening was the longest stretch of elevatedroad in Bri tain. From i ts western end to the

Table 3:National growth in motor vehicle traffic: 1973to 1982

1973 1982 % Changethousand mil li on vehi cl es/km

All motor traffic 209 260 +24

Source: National Road Traffic Forecasts 1984, DoT

Table 2:A summary of a.m. peak period (0700-1000)inbound traffic growth in Greater London

Cordon 1974 1983 % Change 000’s of vehicles

Central London 174.6 182.1 +4Inner London* 250.0 280.6 +12GLC Boundary 224.0 281.0 +25

Total 648.6 743.7 +15

Source: Traffic Monitoring Review 1984, GLC

Table 1: A summary of 24-hour two-way traffic growth in Greater London

Cordon 1974 1983 % Change Annual Growth Rate (%) 000’s of vehicles

Central London 1514 1574 +4 0.4Inner London* 1809 1992 +10 1.1GLC Boundary 1550 1984 +28 3.1

Total 4873 5550 +14 1.6

* Counts at the inner London cordon were taken in 1972 and 1981 Source: Traffic Monitoring Review 1984, GLC



Changes on Traffic


5/2 [1999] 28-48

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Paddington interchange, the majori ty of theroad is dual three-lane wi th a hard shoulder.East of th is point i t reduces to dual tw o-lanewi th a hard shoulder. Two flyovers carrytraffic over Wood Lane and the West CrossRoute interchange (respectively dual two-laneand dual three-lane, both wi thout hardshoulders). The main functions of the road areto provide a fast east-west l ink for local trafficwi thin west London and to carry longerdistance traffic from the A40 to Euston Road,a major east-west distributor for inner northLondon. The road has been open sufficientlylong for traffic to have adjusted to the route,and rel iable historic traffic data are avai lable.

A number of junctions have been upgradedin recent years along the length of the A40.These have al l occurred since the late 1970s,beginning with the Greenford Road flyover in1978.

Previous StudiesA before-and-after study for Westway wasundertaken in 1970. The bulk of the studycomprised an analysis of screenl ine countstaken in May 1970 just prior to the road’sopening and in September/October 1970 afterthe opening. The location of the screenl ineused for the study is given in Figure 5. Inconjunction w i th the screenl ine studies,automatic counters were instal led at variouspoints in the road network and traffic countswere taken in May/June 1970 and October-December 1970 after the opening.

Al though thorough in i ts analysis, theWestway study does have l imi tations. The

‘before’ counts w ere affected by constructionwork which had been in progress since 1966and therefore cannot be considered entirelyrepresentative. Obviously for any major roadscheme such as this where construction hasbeen taking place for some time, a true pictureof the ‘before’ si tuation is di fficul t to obtain.The ‘after’ counts give the traffic only two orthree months to settle down. A fairercomparison between the before and aftercounts may have been achieved had thecounts been taken in February 1970 andFebruary 1971. The counts would then havebeen taken at the same time of year and wouldpresent the traffic picture for six monthsbefore and six months after the opening.

Control AreaIni tial ly, the area chosen as a control forWestway was a corridor based on FinchleyRoad (see Figure 5), a north-south radial routeleading into central London. The 1970Westway study screenl ine was drawn toinclude Finchley Road and therefore directlycomparable data were readi ly avai lable.However, improvements carried out onFinchley Road in 1967 fol low ed by furtherimprovements at Swiss Cottage in 1974 wouldalmost certainly have had an effect on theflows on Finchley Road both during thebefore-and-after study and in later years. Itwas therefore decided to provide an al terna-tive control based on Old Brompton road (seeFigure 6).

Ini tial traffic reactionsTable 4 show s the 24-hour flows in vehiclesfrom the 1970 before-and-after counts for theWestway and Finchley Road corridors, takenat the Westway screenl ine. From M ay toSeptember/October 1970, total traffic in theWestway corridor increased by 14%. This iscompared to a 2% increase in the FinchleyRoad corridor. 46,900 vehicles a day wereusing Westway two to three months after i tsopening. 63% of these (29,800 vehicles)would appear to have been reassigned fromother roads in the corridor. Because of thebrevi ty of the study period (four to fivemonths) i t is un l ikely that much of theincrease could be attributable to normal trafficgrowth. 37% were therefore generated trips.

Table 5 gives a summary of the inboundtraffic in the morning peak hour. It wi l l benoted that the percentage increase in theWestway corridor during this period is fargreater than the increase in 24-hour two-waytraffic. An impl ication of this is that there is agreater potential for traffic generation at th istime and in this direction as a number of car

Figure 5: Westway and Finchley Road corridors



Changes on Traffic


5/2 [1999] 28-48

[34]

Figure 6: Old Brompton Road corridor Table 4:24-hour two-way flows before and after openingof Westway

Westway Corridor * Before After % Change

Finchley Road Corridor

* Westbourne Park Road was not included as the results werefound to be inaccurate.Source: Westway: an Environmental and Traffic Appraisal, GLC1971

owners are deterred from commuting tocentral London by l imi tations of roadcapaci ty.

Longer term effectsUsing the same screenl ine and takinginformation from later surveys, the longer

term effects of the opening of Westway can begauged. The data avai lable are rather lesscomprehensive than for the before-and-afterstudy and counts are not avai lable for al l theroads wi thin the two corridors. However asatisfactory comparison can be made wi th themain roads in the corridors form the earl ierstudy. Table 6 presents the 24-hour tw o-waytraffic for the period fol lowing the opening ofWestway up to the present day. Forcomparison purposes the roads in the OldBrompton Road corridor are included,together wi th the traffic for 1969 in al l thecorridors.

Table 4 presented the in i tial reactions oftraffic in the Westway corridor to the openingof Westway. Table 6 il lustrates the longer termeffects of the road on traffic characteristics inthe corridor. The change in 24-hour flowsfrom two months before the opening ofWestway (May 1970) to 1984 was 87% in theWestway corridor and 10% in the FinchleyRoad corridor. A further indication of theextent to which traffic has been generated bythe construction of Westway can be gauged bycomparing the flows in the two corridors fromafter the road’s opening (September/October1970) up to the present day. The change in 24-hour flow s in the Westway corridor was 41%.This represents an annual growth rate of2.9%. In the Finchley Road corridor thechange was 8% (or 0.6% per annum). During

this period the traffic on Westway i tsel f grewby 93%, whi lst on Finchley Road i t increasedby 18%. It wi l l be noted that, in al l threecorridors, there was a sl ight decrease in trafficbetween 1981 and 1984. This is possibly aresul t of the fare reductions on LondonTransport.

Figure 7(a) gives a graphical representationof the changes in total traffic in threecorridors. The most striking feature of Figure

Table 5:a.m. peak inbound flows before and afteropening of Westway

Westway Corridor Before After % Change

Finchley Road Corridor

Source: GLC Traffic Monitoring Programme

Notting Hill Gate 1590 1630 +3Moscow Road 370 150 -

59Dawson Place 400 100 -75Westbourne Grove 670 540 -19Talbot Road 590 160 -73St Stephen’s Gardens 20 30 +50Westway - 2440 -Harrow Road 1030 780 -24

Total 4670 5830 +25

Maida Vale 1160 1410 +25Hamilton Terrace 870 650 -25Abbey Road 920 870 -5Loudoun Road 360 450 +25Marlborough Hill 100 100 0Finchley Road 1000 1000 0St John’s Wood Park 390 510 +31Avenue Road 970 1160 +20

Total 5770 6150 +7

Notting Hill Gate 52300 44700 -15Moscow Road 7800 5000 -36Dawson Place 7900 3500 -56Westbourne Grove 19900 15100 -24Talbot Road 11400 4300 -62St Stephen’s Gardens 1500 1900 +27Westway - 46900 -Harrow Road 22700 19600 -14

Total 123500 141000 +14

Maida Vale 26200 27800 +6Hamilton Terrace 11800 12800 +8Abbey Road 21100 19600 -7Loudoun Road 5000 4700 -6Marlborough Hill 1300 900 -31Finchley Road 34000 34600 +2St John’s Wood Park 6400 6500 +2Avenue Road 21000 22300 +4

Total 127200 129200 +2

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1970 before-and-after study suggests that verynearly hal f of the traffic reassigned toWestway came from minor roads. On thisbasis, i f i t is assumed that 24% of the trafficusing Westway in 1975 was reassigned traffic,76% must be accounted for by generatedtraffic and development traffic.

The growth rates in traffic in the Westwayand Finchley Road corridors from 1975 to1984 were respectively 4% and 11%. It hasalready been pointed out that improvementsat Swiss Cottage in 1974 w ould have had aneffect on the traffic characteristics in theFinchley Road corridor during this period.The growth rate in the Brompton Roadcorridor during these years was 4%. It wouldappear from these figures that Westway hasnow ceased to attract new trips and that thetraffic pattern in the corridor has reached anequi l ibrium. The traffic characteristics arenow simi lar to those in a control area wi th noimproved highway faci l i ties. The increase intraffic in the Westway corridor over thisperiod is broadly consistent wi th the growthin traffic crossing the central London cordonfor a simi lar period.

As a further indication of the extent towhich traffic in the Westway corridor hasgrown, Figure 7(b) presents the changes intraffic in the Westway, Finchley Road and OldBrompton Road corridors together wi th thegrowth in traffic national ly and forecasts ofnational road traffic.

Figure 7(b) clearly shows that traffic in theWestway corridor has increased at a far greaterrate than traffic growth national ly. It should bepointed out that Westway, Finchley Road andOld Brompton Road are not interchangeableroutes and therefore i t is not possible toaverage out the growth in the three corridorsto produce a less dramatic effect.

From the latest data avai lable, Westway iscurrently carrying approximately 91,000vehicles each day. To put this flow intoperspective, Table 7 presents a summary of24-hour flow s on the national motorwaynetwork in 1980 (Westway in 1981 wascarrying 88,800 vehicles a day). For eachmotorway the highest observed flows aregiven.

It wi l l be noted that al l of the pointssurveyed on the motorway network had trafficlevels less than Westway.

Conclusions• From tw o months before the opening of

Westway up to the present day, totaltraffic on the major roads in the corridorhave increased by 87%. In the FinchleyRoad corridors, traffic increased by just

Figure 7(a): Traffic growth in the Westway, Finchley Road and Old Brompton Roadcorridors.

7(a) is the dramatic growth in the totalnumber of vehicles using the Westwaycorridor from May 1970 to 1975. This growthrepresents an increase of 79%. The number ofvehicles using Westway i tsel f in 1975 was85,100. Of these, 12% (9800 vehicles) appearto have been reassigned from the three othermajor roads in the corridor. It is not know nhow many vehicles transferred from minorroads in the corridor. Data provided by the

Table 6:24-hour two-way flows in the Westway, Finchley Road and Old Brompton Roadcorridors

000’s of vehicles 1969 1970 1970 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984Before After

Westway CorridorNotting Hill Gate 53.7 52.3 44.7 44.4 50.0 46.3 51.8 50.0Westbourne Grove 16.7 19.9 15.1 14.8 14.8 16.7 16.7 13.0Westway - - 46.9 75.9 85.1 81.4 88.8 90.7Harrow Road 14.8 22.7 19.6 16.7 20.4 22.2 24.1 24.1

Total 85.2 94.9 126.3 151.8 170.3 166.6 181.4 177.8

Finchley Road CorridorMaida Vale 25.9 26.2 27.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 27.8Abbey Road 16.7 21.2 19.6 18.5 18.5 22.2 20.4 22.2Finchley Road 29.6 34.0 34.6 35.3 37.0 40.7 42.6 40.7Avenue Road 18.5 21.4 22.3 22.2 20.4 24.1 25.9 22.2

Total 90.7 102.8 104.3 99.9 101.8 112.9 114.8 112.9

Old Brompton Road CorridorCromwell Road 61.1 61.1 61.1 68.5 67.8 61.1Old Brompton Road 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 22.2 22.2Fulham Road 22.2 22.2 22.2 24.1 27.8 24.1Kings Road 27.8 35.2 29.6 35.2 33.3 31.5

Total 131.4 138.9 133.3 148.2 148.1 138.9




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5/2 [1999] 28-48

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motorway was finished in February 1980. Theroad provides extra capaci ty into London fromthe north-east sector and i t is expected thatlonger distance traffic may be attracted fromEast Angl ia.

The study corr idorFor the purposes of this analysis a corridorwas defined, centred on the M11, whichincludes al l roads between the A104 and theA1112 which cross the GLC boundary and forwhich historic traffic data are avai lable (seeFigure 8).

Control AreaA corridor centred on the A23 Brighton Roadwas selected as a control for this study. TheA23 is a north-south radial route, crossing theGLC boundary at Chipstead which carriestraffic bound for inner and central London.The corridor includes al l roads from theA2022 in Banstead to Sti tes Hi l l Road in OldCoulsdon (see Figure 9).

Sources of informationAl l the flows for his study were taken fromcounts made at the GLC boundary cordon (seeFigure 2) as part of the GLC’s trafficmoni toring programme. The cordoncorresponds roughly to the administrativeboundary of Greater London and l ies wi thinthe l ine of the M 25 motorway. Traffic countsat this cordon are carried out at three-yearlyintervals and the last fu l l counts w ere made in1983.

Changes in al l day flowsTable 8 presents the changes in two-w ay 24-hour traffic in the M11 and A23 corridors.From 1974 to 1983 total traffic using the M11corridor increased by 38% (37,801 vehicles),whi lst traffic in the A23 corridor increased by29% (18,340 vehicles). The increase in trafficin the M11 corridor over this period is not ofthe same order as the volumes using the M11in 1983. This suggests that trafficreassignment has taken place in the corridor,since the total reduction in traffic on otherroads in the corridor has been substantial(15,303 vehicles).

Traffic using the M11 i tsel f has increaseddramatical ly since 1977. This increase of131% represents an annual growth rate of22%. This figure compares wi th an annualgrowth rate of 3.1% at the GLC boundary as awhole from 1974 to 1983. Traffic on the A23over the same period have increased by 16%or 3% p.a.

Figure 7(b): National traffic growth

Table 7:Average 24-hour flows at selected points onthe motorway network in 1980.

Motorway Between Junction Nos. 000’s of vehiclesM1 25-26 42.4M45 - 6.1M3 3-4 42.8M4 7-9 75.6M5 4-5 40.2M50 1-2 10.6M6 14-15 53.9M9 7-8 48.7M20 2-3 25.7M40 6-7 22.6M55 1-3 28.3M56 12-14 39.4M62 10-11 42.6M90 5-6 14.0A1(M) East of Durham 23.5

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 1970-1980

10%.• Volumes of traffic using the Westway

corridor increased dramatical ly for a fiveyear period after which i t adjusted tonormal traffic trends.

• A large proportion of traffic usingWestway has not originated from wi thinthe corridor. It can only be concludedthat this traffic has been generated by theconstruction of the road.

• Westway i tsel f has experienced a 93%increase in traffic from shortly after i tsopening and is now carryingapproximately 91,000 vehicles each day.

M11Description of the RoadThe M11 motorway runs from the A12Redbridge roundabout in north-east London tothe A604, west of Cambridge. From Redbridgeto the A120 in Bishop’s Stortford (Junction 8)the road is dual three-lane. North of this pointi t narrows to dual two-lane. The section of theM11 from Redbridge to South Harlow w ascompleted in Spring 1978 and the entire

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Figure 8: M11 corridor

Changes in a.m. peak inbound flowsTable 9 presents the changes in volumes oftraffic bound for inner and central Londonduring the a.m. period. From 1974 to 1983 theincrease in traffic during the a.m. peak periodin the M11 corridor was 56%. This figure issigni ficantly greater than the increase in al lday two-way traffic in the corridor. Thisfinding is consistent wi th the resul ts of theanalysis of other road schemes in this report.However, unl ike Westway, for example, thereis no capaci ty restraint during the peak

Figure 9: A23 corridor

period. The increase in flows in the A23corridor during th is period was 33%.

From 1977 to 1983 traffic using the M11increased by 151% w hi lst A23 trafficincreased by just 16%.

The real increase in traffic from 1974 to1983 in the M11 corridor was 7838 vehicles.In 1983 10,600 vehicles were using the M11 inthe morning peak period. Approximately 2762vehicles may have transferred from the otherroads in the corridor. This figure is equal to35% of the overal l traffic increase.

Origins of extra traffic26% of the peak hour and 29% of the 24-hourflows on the M11 can be explained byreassignment; the rest is traffic growth/generation. There is evidence in OPCS reportsthat there have been reductions in rai l travelfrom towns served by the M 11 w hereas insimi lar towns away from the M11 rai l travelhas increased. Thus there is a clear indicationof at least some of the extra traffic occurring asa resul t of a mode change from publ ictransport to private car.

It is beyond the scope of this paper toestimate the extent to which trafficredistribution has occurred. The fact that theM11 is an entirely new motorway, l inking twoci ties (Cambridge and London) suggests thatredistribution may have occurred due to theattractiveness of the options offered by theroad. For the same reason i t is possible thatsome of the traffic increase may compriseentirely new trips.

Cambridge and London are also l inked bythe A10, which is outside the corridor used inthis study. Using the same data source as wasused in the analysis of the M11 and A23corridors i t can be shown that total traffic onthe A10 increased by 75% in both d irectionsfrom 1974 to 1983.

Conclusions• From 1974 to 1983 total traffic using the

M11 corridor increased by 38%.• Over the same period, a.m. peak inbound

traffic in the corridor increased by 56%.• Total M 11 traffic increased by 131%

from 1977 to 1983.

A316 (M3 – A312)Description of the roadThe A316 is a major radial route in south-w estLondon, l inking the M3 at Sunbury to theA312 in Chiswick. The road has tw o crossingsover the River Thames, at Twickenham Bridgeand at Chiswick Bridge. The section of theA316 from the M 3 to the A312 is dual 3-lane,having formerly been dual 2-lane. The

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traffic in the area. In addi tion, theconstruction of the M25 London Orbi talmotorway, which joins the M3 at Chertsey isl ikely to influence more recent traffic countdata.

Wi th these factors in mind, i t wasconsidered necessary to select as a control theM4 motorway, which is in the same generalarea as the A316 and is also a major radialroute. Owing to the nearness of the M4 to theA316, the corridors which have been definedfor the analysis of traffic are necessari lynarrow in order to exclude any overlapping(see Figure 10). The corridor centred on theA316 includes Chertsey Road, Vicarage Roadand Staines Road East. The control corridorincludes the M4 and the A4.

Sources of informationFor both the A316 and the M4 corridors,reliable historic traffic data are readi lyavailable from counts taken at the GLCboundary as part of the GLC’s regular trafficmoni toring programme. The counts w eretaken at three-yearly intervals and areavailable from 1971 to 1983. It should benoted that during the 1974 counts, w ork wasin progress on the A316. However, al l workwas completed by the time of the 1977 counts.

Changes in al l day trafficTable 10 presents the total traffic in the A316and M 4 corridors from 1971 to 1983. From1971 to 1983 total traffic using the A316corridor increased by 84%, whi lst traffic usingthe M4 and A4 increased by 66%. A316 trafficincreased by 218% over the period. Thegrowth in traffic in the A316 corridor wassubstantial ly greater than the increase inpurely A316 traffic. Therefore, apart from a1% reduction on Chertsey Road, there hasbeen no decrease in traffic on other roads inthe corridor. This suggests that there has beenno reassignment of traffic to the A316. Thismay be because the A316 is not a new road,but one that has been upgraded. Westway,which for the purposes of this study, is anewly constructed road, experienced qui te alarge degree of reassignment ini tial ly.

Changes in a.m. peak inbound flowsTable 11 presents the changes in inboundtraffic during the morning peak period.Inbound a.m. peak period traffic increased by107% from 1971 to 1983 in the A316 corridorand by just 41% in the M4 corridor. A316traffic increased at a dramatic rate. Itexperienced a growth of over 300% over thetwelve year period. It wi l l be noted that theincreases in this peak period traffic are greater

Table 8: 24-hour two-way flows in the M11 and A23 corridors

A104 21,744 16,739 18,179 15,921 -27A121 17,582 14,941 18,303 16,922 -4Loughton Way 10,152 7,938 9,060 8,210 -19M11 - 22,987 34,682 53,104

+131*A113 18,910 10,405 10,429 9,792 -48Lambourne Road 11,686 12,225 14,684 12,889 +10A1112 20,482 21,079 22,633 21,519 +5

Total 100,556 106,314 127,970 138,357 +38

A23 corridor

Stites Hill Road 1,747 3,975 2,736 3,039 +74Coulsdon Road 8,1171 9,267 8,067 8,606 +5Woodplace Lane 970 1,019 913 1,525 +57A23 22,126 29,498 29,219 34,164 +54Coulsdon Lane 2,010 1,752 2,040 1,378 -31How Lane 838 1,065 851 1,115 +33Chipstead Valley Road 9,018 9,336 8,219 10,325 +14A2022 18,986 21,812 19,685 22,057 +16

Total 63,866 77,724 71,730 82,209 +29

* % Change 1977-1983Source: GLC Traffic Monitoring Programme

Table 9: a.m. peak inbound flows in the M11 and A23 corridors

A104 3,473 2,429 3,335 2,540 -27A121 2,824 2,100 2,495 2,240 -21Loughton Way 1,740 880 1,220 960 -45M11 - 4,277 6,753 10,612 +151*A113 1,855 800 1,154 1,106 -40Lambourne Road 1,768 2,150 2,410 2,220 +26A1112 2,360 2,275 2,390 2,180 -8

Total 14,020 14,861 19,757 21,858 +56

A23 corridor

Stites Hill Road 60 430 450 330Coulsdon Road 630 1,000 1,135 960Woodplace Lane 140 150 30 230A23 2,900 4,033 3,916 4,682Coulsdon Lane 200 160 340 160How Lane 100 130 130 220Chipstead Valley Road 1,220 1,060 800 670A2022 2,489 3,122 2,935 3,005

Total 7,739 10,085 9,736 10,257 +33

* % Change 1977-1983Source: GLC Traffic Monitoring Programme

M11 corridor 1974 1977 1980 1983 % Change (1974-83)

M11 corridor 1974 1977 1980 1983 % Change (1974-83)

completion of the A316 w idening took p laceshortly after the construction of the M3 fromCamberley to Sunbury in 1975/6. North of thejunction of the A316 wi th the A312, the roadnarrows to dual 2-lane, al though there havebeen improvements to certain junctions onthis stretch.

The study areaThe location of the A316 in south-w estLondon means that i t is in a very active area.The proximi ty of Heathrow Airport, which isa great attractor both for development andtraffic, is likely to have a marked effect on

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reassignment has taken place. Al though someof the traffic growth may be accounted for bynew trips i t is unl ikely that this category wi l lconsti tute a large proportion of the increase.

It is l ikely that part of the increase can beaccounted for by development traffic. It wasstated earl ier that west London, andparticularly Heathrow, is a great attraction fordevelopment and i t should be noted that boththe A4 and the M4, both of which are adjacentto Heathrow, have experienced notinsubstantial increases in traffic.

Conclusions• From 1971 to 1983 total traffic using the

A316 corridor increased by 84%.• Over the same period a.m. peak period

traffic increased by 107% in the inbounddirection.

• Traffic using the A316 increased by218% for the whole day and by 311% inthe a.m. peak period.

• There is no evidence of reassignment tothe A316.

Blackwal l TunnelsDescription of the Tunnels and thei rapproachesThe Blackwal l Tunnels form a permanentcrossing of the River Thames in east London.They consist of two tunnels crossing the riverto the east of the Isle of Dogs, plus twoapproaches: the northern approach l inking theA102(M) at Bow ; and the southern approachjoining the A2 at Shooters Hi l l (see Figure 11).

Original ly, there was only one tunnel ,which was tw o-way, opened in 1897. In 1968a new tunnel was opened and the existing onewas closed for renovation. When the oldtunnel was reopened in Apri l 1969 thetunnels became, in effect, a dual carriagewaywi th two lanes in each d irection. In the sameyear, the Southern Approach Road Motorwayopened from the southern end of the tunnelsvia an interchange at Woolwich Road to aroundabout at Shooters Hi l l . A few monthslater, an underpass was added leading directlyonto the A2. In 1971/72 improvements to thenorthern approach were completed.

The study corr idorThis analysis is concerned w i th studying theeffect of the dupl ication of the Blackwal lTunnels on traffic using the tunnelsthemselves and the neighbouring rivercrossings. These include Tower Bridge,Rotherhithe Tunnel and Dartford Tunnel. TheWoolwich Free Ferry also comes wi thin thiscorridor but the traffic carried is minimal . Inorder to include at least one other river

Figure 10: A316 and M4 corridor

Table 10: 24-hour two-way flows in the A316 and M4 corridors

A316 corridor 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 % Change 1971-83

M4 Corridor

Source: GLC traffic Monitoring Programme

Table 11: a.m. peak inbound flows in the A316 and M4 corridors

A316 corridor 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 % Change 1971-83

Source: GLC traffic Monitoring Programme

Staines Road East 19,861 18,995 23,518 21,633 22,182 +12A316 17,384 21,312 44,005 52,394 55,229 +218Vicarage Road 6,498 10,829 10,633 10,526 10,954 +69Chertsey Road 9,113 8,919 8,629 9,764 9,048 -1

Total 52,856 60,055 86,785 94,317 97,413 +84

A4 12,430 20,133 23,510 32,163 30,619 +146M4 57,723 70,762 80,006 86,229 85,772 +49

Total 70,153 90,895 103,516 118,392 116,391 +66

Staines Road East 2,640 2,950 2,405 1,985 2,030 -23A316 2,354 2,958 8,360 9,983 9,681 +311Vicarage Road 830 2,060 1,670 1,400 1,490 +80Chertsey Road 1,170 1,320 1,220 1,210 1,280 +9

Total 6,994 9,288 13,655 14,578 14,481 +107

M4 CorridorA4 2,039 3,179 3,600 5,430 3,510 +72M4 9,371 12,966 12,826 14,181 12,625 +35

Total 11,410 16,145 16,426 19,611 16,135 +41

than the al l day traffic increases in the A316corridor. This may indicate that there is agreater scope for traffic generation during thea.m. peak period in the inbound direction.

Origins of extra trafficThe growth in traffic in the A316 corridor hasbeen dramatic and from the evidencepresented there is l i ttle reason to suggest that

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In the main, the data used in th is analysishave been provided by the regular surveysundertaken by the GLC Intel l igence Uni t, fromthe cordon and screenl ine studies. Use hasalso been made of the resul ts of roadsideinterviews carried out on the River Thamesscreenl ine as part of the 1962 London TrafficSurvey.

Addi tional data have been suppl ied byextra surveys carried out by the GLC in Ju ly/August 1969, speci fical ly to assess the effectof the dupl ication of the Blackwal l Tunnel onneighbouring river crossings.

Ini tial effects of the new Blackwal l TunnelTable 12 presents a summary of peak periodtraffic in the Blackwal l Tunnel corridor for1968 (before the reopening of the old tunnel)and Ju ly 1969 (three months after thereopening). The resul ts represent the ini tialreactions of traffic to the dupl ication of theBlackwal l Tunnels.

The Blackwal l Tunnels show a 106%increase in hourly traffic in the morning peakperiod, and a 104% increase in the evening.There are no signi ficant changes on the otherfour crossings apart from a sl ight decrease intraffic on Tower Bridge and on DartfordTunnel in the a.m. peak (a total reduction of212 vehicles) and on Dartford Tunnel in thep.m. peak (70 vehicles). This suggests thatthere is no signi ficant reassignment of trafficto the Blackwal l Tunnels from the other rivercrossings. At the maximum, i t would be 8% inthe a.m. peak. There is an overal l increase incross-river traffic of 25% in the morning peak(northbound) and 19% in the evening peak(southbound).

Table 13 presents the total tw o-way trafficfor a 12-hour period in the Blackwal l Tunnelcorridor for the same years as above. Over a12-hour period, traffic in the Blackwal lTunnels has increased by 42% (9453vehicles). Traffic using Tower Bridge and theRotherhi the Tunnel has also increased, thoughless signi ficantly. Dartford Tunnelexperienced a reduction in traffic of 11%(1526 vehicles). There is an overal l increase intraffic in the corridor of 15%. Apart from thedecrease in traffic in the Dartford Tunnel ,there is no indication of traffic reassignment.

From the analysis of the in i tial effects ofthe dupl ication of the Blackwal l Tunnel ontraffic characteristics, i t can be observed thatthe effects are fel t chiefly during the peakperiods, wi th traffic more than doubl ing in thepeak direction. The vast majori ty of theincrease in traffic appears to be generatedtraffic. As there is l i ttle change in traffic onthe other river crossings, only a very smal l

Figure 11: Blackwall Tunnel corridor

Figure 12: Kew Bridge corridor

crossing ei ther side of the Blackwal l Tunnels,this is of necessi ty a very wide corridor. TheDartford Tunnel was fi rst opened as a singletwo-way tunnel in November 1963, wi th asecond bore being introduced in May 1980.These tunnels now form part of the M 25orbi tal route.

The central corr idorTo provide a comparison for traffic crossingthe River Thames in the vicini ty of theBlackwal l Tunnels, a corridor has beendefined centred on Kew Bridge in westLondon. This includes al l the river crossingsfrom Richmond Bridge to Hammersmi thBridge (see Figure 12). The traffic using thiscorridor would include radial trips from theM3.

Sources of information

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proportion of the increase can be accountedfor by reassignment.

At the time of surveys there were very fewbuses running through the Blackwal l Tunnel(about 5 per hour, in each direction) and onlyone rai lway l ine crossing the lower Thames,the London Transport East London l ine, 3 kmwest of the Blackwal l Tunnel . It appearsunl ikely that these could provide a majorsource of new traffic.

It therefore appears that virtual ly al l of theextra traffic using Blackwal l during this ini tialperiod is generated traffic, a large proportionof which may fal l into the category of ‘new’traffic.

Longer term traffic effectsTable 14 presents a longer term comparison ofthe changes in traffic in both the Blackwal lTunnels and the Kew Bridge corridors. Due toinconsistencies in data, no direct comparisoncan be made wi th the 12-hour flows presentedin Table 13.

From 1962 to 1972 there was an overal lincrease in traffic in the Blackwal l Tunnelcorridor of 101% (10% p.a.). Traffic using theBlackwal l Tunnels increased by 142%, whi letraffic using Tower Bridge increased by 25%and Rotherhi the Tunnel traffic remainedconstant.

During the 1962 survey, Dartford Tunnelwas not opened. In 1972 i t w as carrying30,000 vehicles or 23% of the total flow in thecorridor. However, i t is not immediatelyapparent w hether the increase in traffic in thecorridor was substantial ly affected by theopening of the Dartford Tunnel . It is l ikelythat some Dartford Tunnel traffic previouslyused Blackwal l Tunnel and Tower Bridge, inthe absence of an al ternative river crossing.For the same period, total traffic in the KewBridge corridor increased by 37% (4% p.a.). Itis interesting to note that by excluding theeffects of Dartford Tunnel from the rest of theBlackwal l corridor there was sti l l an overal lincrease in traffic by 91%.

During the period from 1972 to 1982 therewas a 26% increase in traffic in the Blackwal lTunnel corridor and a 41% increase using theBlackwal l Tunnels. This compares to anoveral l increase of 20% in the Kew Bridgecorridor. Over the twenty year period,Blackwal l Tunnel traffic increased by 242%(24% p.a.) wi th traffic in the whole corridorincreasing by 153%. Traffic in the Kew Bridgecorridor increased by 64%.

Table 15 shows the changes in a.m. peakhourly traffic over the same period. A l thoughthe increases in tw o-way traffic in the a.m.peak hour w ere not qui te as acute as the

Table 12: Peak period traffic in the Blackwall Tunnel corridor, 1968/69

a.m. peak (0700-0900) p.m. peak (1700-1900) Nor thbound, hourly flows Southbound, hourly flows1968 1969 % Change 1968 1969 % Change

Tower Bridge 1,510 1,410 -7 1,368 1,504 +10Rotherhithe Tunnel 1,033 1,055 +2 969 990 +2Blackwall Tunnel 1,287 2,648 +106 1,166 2,376 +104Dartford Tunnel 1,114 1,012 -9 1,030 960 -7Total 4,944 6,115 +24 4,533 5,830 +29

Source: Research Memorandum No. 185, GLC 1969

Table 15: a.m. peak hour two-way flows in the Blackwall Tunnel and Kew Bridgecorridors

1962 1972 1982 % Change (1962-82)Blackwall Tunnel CorridorTower Bridge 2,800 2,460 2,450 -13Rotherhithe Tunnel 1,800 1,480 1,540 -14Blackwall Tunnels 1,700 4,890 5,440 +220Dartford Tunnel - 2,250 3,560 -

Total 6,300 11,110 12,990 +106Total (excl. Dartford Tunnel) 6,300 8,860 9,430 +50

Kew Bridge CorridorRichmond Bridge 1,600 1,690 1,800 +13Twickenham Bridge 3,600 4,160 3,800 +6Kew Bridge 3,000 3,370 3,600 +20Chiswick Bridge 3,000 3,720 3,430 +14Hammersmith Bridge 2,400 2,290 2,080 -13Total 13,600 15,230 14,710 +8

Source: London Traffic Survey/GLC Traffic Monitoring Programme

Table 13: 12-hour (0700-1900) two-way flows in the Blackwall Tunnel corridor, 1968/69

1968 1969 % ChangeTower Bridge 23,820 24,961 +5Rotherhithe Tunnel 12,935 14,649 +13Blackwall Tunnel 22,741 32,194 +42Dartford Tunnel 13,667 12,141 -11Total 73,163 83,945 +15

Source: Research Memorandum No. 185, GLC 1969

Table 14: 24-hour two-way flows in the Blackwall Tunnel and Kew Bridge corridors

1962 1972 1982 % Change (1962-82)Blackwall Tunnel CorridorTower Bridge 28,000 35,000 34,000 +21Rotherhithe Tunnel 17,000 17,000 20,000 +18Blackwall Tunnels 21,000 51,000 72,000 +242Dartford Tunnel - 30,000 41,000 -

Total 66,000 133,000 167,000 +153Total (excl. Dartford Tunnel) 66,000 103,000 126,000 +91

Kew Bridge CorridorRichmond Bridge 17,000 20,000 25,000 +47Twickenham Bridge 29,000 42,000 54,000 +86Kew Bridge 32,000 44,000 50,000 +56Chiswick Bridge 23,000 33,000 39,000 +70Hammersmith Bridge 24,000 32,000 37,000 +54

Total 125,000 171,000 205,000 +64

Source: London Traffic Survey/GLC Traffic Monitoring Programme

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A406 North Circular Road (Hanger Lane toFal loden Way)Description of the roadThe A406 North Circular Road l inks the M4 atthe Chiswick roundabout in Gunnersbury tothe A104 at Waterworks Corner in north-eastLondon. It is a major northern orbi tal routewi thin Greater London and joins al l the majorradial routes, including the A40, M 1, A10 andM11 (see Figure 13). The Hanger Lane toFal loden Way section of the A406 l inks theA40 Western Avenue to the A598 FinchleyRoad. Between these two roads other radialroutes include the A404 Harrow Road, theA4088 Neasden Lane and the A5 EdgwareRoad. Adjacent to the A5 is the M 1 extensionwhich was connected to the A406 in 1976shortly after the completion of the StaplesCorner junction.

Past infrastructural changesThe Hanger Lane to Fal loden Way section ofthe North Circular Road has been subject totwo major road schemes:

• In September 1973 the Neasden Laneunderpass was completed. Theunderpass created a larger free-flowingjunction between Neasden Lane and theNorth Circular Road. This hadpreviously been a signal led junction.

• The Staples Corner flyovers at thejunction of the A5 and the A406 werecompleted in 1976. This w as fol lowed ayear later by the opening of the M 1extension.

It is the effect on traffic characteristics ofthese two schemes which wi l l form the majorpart of the analysis.

changes in 24-hour flows, i t wi l l be noted thatthere was a massive increase in Blackwal lTunnel traffic between 1962 and 1972 (188%).There is a very marked d i fference between theincrease in flows in the Blackwall Tunnelcorridor compared to the change in the KewBridge corridor over the twenty year period(106% and 8% respectively).

The resul ts given in Tables 14 and 15represent a dramatic growth in traffic usingthe Blackwal l Tunnels. There has been nodiminution in 24-hour flows on the other rivercrossings in the corridor which confirms thefindings based on the ini tial effects on trafficof the dupl ication of the Blackwal l Tunnels.However, there has been some reduction inthe a.m. peak hour flows on other crossings inthe corridor.

Conclusions• There was a 42% increase in Blackwal l

Tunnel traffic from approximately a yearbefore the dupl ication of the tunnels tothree months after, wi th the effects beingfel t chiefly during the peak periods.

• From 1962 to 1982 total traffic using theBlackwal l Tunnels increased by 242%.

• There has been no signi ficant reductionin traffic using the neighbouring innercrossings.

• Large volumes of traffic have beengenerated by the dupl ication of theBlackwal l Tunnels.

Figure 13: The A406 North Circular Road and Study Area



Changes on Traffic


5/2 [1999] 28-48

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to Harrow Road Publ ic Inquiry relatesspecifically to peak period (a.m. and p.m.)flows. Where data is avai lable, thisinformation has been supplemented by 24-hour and peak period flows on the other roadsin the corridor. At the Publ ic Inquiry only thesection of the A406 to the west of StaplesCorner was analysed. However, for thepurposes of this study the area has beenextended eastwards in order to define anyother changes to the infrastructure. As in thecase of the M 25 analysis no control corridorhas been employed in this study. The studyarea which has been defined for the NorthCircular Road includes a detai led roadnetwork comprising orbi tal and radial routesand is based upon the major northern orbi talroute in London. Variations in road orjunction capaci ty wi thin the area may have adirect effect on the traffic pattern on a road asheavi ly trafficked as the A406. For thesereasons it would be impracticable to provide acorridor wi th simi lar traffic characteristics asa control .

Changes in peak hour flowsAt the 1984 A406 Hanger Lane to HarrowRoad Publ ic Inquiry i t was stated in evidencethat:

“… after the opening of the Staples Cornerflyovers, and the M1 southbound carriage-way, the southbound flow (on the A406 inthe a.m. peak) increased from some 1600vehicles per hour to 3600 vehicles perhour.”(Extract from Statement by P.A. Yates,London Borough of Brent, 1984)This increase refers to the period from 1976

to 1980 and shows an overal l increase intraffic of 125% (or 31% p.a.). Table 16 givesthe peak hour traffic on the Neasden Lane toStaples Corner section of the North CircularRoad.

A ful l set of data was presented in evidence

at the Hanger Lane to Harrow Road Publ icInquiry. It noted that there have beendramatic increases in traffic during the peakson the section of the North Circular Roadimmediately west of Staples Corner. Thegreatest increases took p lace between 1975/6and 1978/9, after completion of the StaplesCorner junction and the extension of the M1to the North Circular Road. During the a.m.peak period two-way traffic on the NeasdenLane to Staples Corner section increased by100% (33% p.a.) and in the p.m. peak by 67%(22% p.a.).

In addi tion to the overal l increases intraffic, there also appear to be marked changesin d irectional flow and this is particularly

DoT proposals for the North Ci rcular RoadPubl ic Inquiries are currently taking placeinto DoT proposals for increasing the capaci tyof the North Circular Road. The DoT proposeto create a dual 2- or 3-lane carriageway ofnear motorway standard along the entirelength of the road and, in addi tion, to createtwo entirely new l inks: the South Woodford toBarking Rel ief Road and the East LondonRiver Crossing. These proposals would resul tin a major addi tion to road capaci ty throughLondon. At the A406 Hanger Lane to HarrowRoad Publ ic Inquiry in 1984, evidence givenby the London Borough of Brent highl ighted avery high growth in traffic on the A406 afterthe opening of the Staples Corner flyoverjunction. This growth wi l l be analysed here inorder to determine whether the opening ofStaples Corner has led to the generation oftraffic on this section of the North CircularRoad.

Sources of informationMuch of the information for th is study wastaken from the l ink count and speed studiescarried out at three-yearly intervals by theGLC Intel l igence Uni t. The counts are takenon a selected road network divided in tosections to cover the w hole of Greater London.The two areas which are of relevance to thisanalysis are the outer north and outer north-west sections (see Figure 3). Extensive use hasalso been made of data presented in evidenceby the London Borough of Brent in support ofthe DoT’s proposals for the Hanger Lane toHarrow Road Publ ic Inquiry.

The study areaIn order to analyse the traffic characteristics ofthe Hanger Lane to Fal loden Way section ofthe North Circular Road an area has beendefined which includes the road networkanalysed at the 1984 Publ ic Inquiry p lusaddi tional major roads to the east and west ofthe Staples Corner junction. The study areaincludes both radial routes and al ternativeorbi tal routes.

The traffic information presented by theLondon Borough of Brent at the Hanger Lane

Table 16: Peak hour traffic on the North Circular Road (Neasden Lane to Staples Corner)

1972/3 1975/6 1978/9 1981/2 % Change (1972/3-1981/2)a.m. peakWestbound 1,300 1,500 3,600 3,400 +162Eastbound 1,100 1,500 2,200 2,400 +118Two-way 2,400 2,900 5,800 5,800 +142

p.m. peakWestbound 1,400 1,600 2,200 2,100 +50Eastbound 1,400 1,400 2,800 3,100 +121Two-way 2,800 3,000 5,000 5,200 +86

Source: London Borough of Brent



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noticeable during the period directly after theopening of the Staples Corner junction. In1978/9 morning peak westbound traffic on theNeasden Lane to Staples Corner section are64% higher than the eastbound flows. In theevening peak, the reverse is true, eastboundflows are 27% higher than westbound traffic.This tidal pattern is typical of radial traffic inLondon. This may therefore suggest that muchof the increase in traffic on the North CircularRoad is due to new radial traffic which iscoming in on the M1 and seeking al ternativeradial routes to reach inner or central London.

Changes in radial trafficTable 17 show s the extent to w hich changes intraffic have occurred on major radial routesapproaching the North Circular Road fromouter north-west London as a resul t of theconstruction of the M1 extension and theStaples Corner junction. A l l these routes areshown on Figure 13.

The completion of the M 1 extension andStaples Corner has resul ted in a large increasein the volumes of traffic using the radialroutes which join the North Circular Roadfrom outer north-west London. From 1975/6

to 1981/2 there was a 16% increase in trafficon these roads (54,100 extra vehicles). The M1extension was carrying 46,250 of thesevehicles. Despi te some reductions in flow s onthe other radial routes there has been veryl i ttle reassignment of traffic to the M1. It canbe concluded that the introduction of theseschemes has resul ted in large volumes oftraffic being generated, the vast majority ofwhich is l ikely to be traffic making a radialmovement.

Alternative orbital routesTable 16 demonstrated that there weresigni ficant increases in the numbers ofvehicles using the North Circular Road afterthe completion of the Staples Corner junctionand the M1 extension. Table 18 gives the 24-hour flows at selected points on the NorthCircular Road, to the w est of Staples Corner.The flows were taken at the points of threescreenl ines drawn, for the purposes of thisstudy, in a broadly east-west directionapproximately paral lel to the radial routes inthe corridor. Flows are also given at the pointswhere the screenl ines cross al ternative orbi talroutes in the corridor.

In addi tion to the increases in traffic on theNorth Circular Road, particularly after thecompletion of Staples corner and the M 1extension, there has also been a generalincrease in flows on other orbi tal routes in thecorridor. The one notable exception is ChurchRoad, which experienced a 9% decrease intraffic from 1972/3 to 1981/2.

It wi l l be noted that the North CircularRoad experienced a reduction in traffic from1972/3 to 1975/6 (15% at Screenl ine A and13% at Screenl ine C). Th is can be accountedfor by the Staples Corner construction workswhich imposed a restraint on traffic in thearea. Table 18 demonstrates that there hasbeen l i ttle in the way of reassignment of trafficto the A406 from other orbi tal routes. Thiswould support the theory that the increases intraffic on the North Circular Road largelycomprise traffic performing a radialmovement.

The vast increases in traffic on the NorthCircular Road in the peak hours (shown inTable 16), which are far greater than the 24-hour tw o-way increases, suggest that there is agreater potential for traffic generation at th istime and that car users may be deterred fromcommuting to central London by car due tol imi tations in road capaci ty.

Changes in flows to the east of Staples CornerThe information presented so far relatesspeci fical ly to the area examined at the A406

Table 18: 24-hour two-way flows on the North Circular Road and alternative orbitalroutes

1972/3 1975/6 1978/9 1981/2 % change (1972/3-1981/2)Screenline ANorth Circular Road 62,900 53,650 72,150 74,000 +18Greenford Road 25,900 22,900 31,450 31,450 +21Victoria Road 18,500 18,500 18,500 18,500 0Total 107,300 94,350 122,100 123,950 +16

Screenline BNorth Circular Road 53,650 53,650 74,000 72,150 +34East Lane 20,350 20,350 27,750 25,900 +27Church Road 20,350 18,500 18,500 18,500 -9Total 94,350 92,500 120,250 116,550 +24

Screenline CNorth Circular Road 57,350 49,950 79,550 66,600 +16Kingsbury Road 22,200 24,050 24,050 27,750 +25Church Lane 12,950 16,650 12,950 12,950 0Total 92,500 88,800 116,550 107,300 +16


Table 17: 24-hour two-way flows on radial routes in outer north-west London

1975/6 1978/9 1981/2 % change (1975/6-1981/2)A 40 72,200 70,300 81,400 +13A404 31,500 33,300 33,300 +6A4088 46,300 33,300 44,000 -5A5 30,500 33,300 31,500 +3M1 - 48,100 46,250 -A41 64,750 61,050 72,150 +11A502 24,050 25,900 22,200 -8A1 42,550 42,550 35,150 -17A598 27,750 29,600 27,750 0Total 339,600 377,400 393,700 +16




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Hanger Lane to Harrow Road Publ ic Inquiry.In order to create a more complete picture ofhow the traffic characteristics of the NorthCircular Road have been affected by theintroduction of the M1 extension and theStaples Corner junction i t is necessary toanalyse the section of the A406 to the east ofStaples Corner.

The section of the A406 to the east ofStaples Corner has experienced dramaticincreases in traffic since the opening of theflyover junction and the M 1 extension. Thesection from Staples Corner to the A41 hasexperienced an increase in traffic of 112%.This represents an annual growth rate of 19%.In 1978/9 there were 40,700 more vehicles onthis section of the North Circular Road than in1975/6. This magni tude of increase isconsistent wi th the volumes of traffic whichwere using the M 1 extension after i ts opening.In 1975/6 the A1 Great North Way was themajor radial ‘ feed’ into the North CircularRoad at this section and the A41 was the mainfeed from the M1 into inner and centralLondon. This is reflected in the magni tude ofthe flows from the A1 to the A598. Theincrease in traffic at this section, thoughsigni ficant, is not of the same order as theincrease on the Staples Corner to Hendon Waysection

Fur ther changes in radial trafficAs a further guide to changes in the patternsof traffic in the North Circular Road corridor,Table 20 presents the changes in traffic on al lthe major radial roads leading from the A406to inner and central London. From 1975/6 to

1981/2 there has been an overal l increase inal l day traffic of 7% on the major radial routesfrom the A406 to inner and central London.The greatest increases occurred on the A41and the A502 (22% and 27% respectively).There was an overal l increase on these tworoads of 18,500 vehicles which is equal to40% of the total number of vehicles using theM1 extension in 1981/2.

Taking into account the large increases intraffic on the A406 between Staples Cornerand the A502, it would appear that a sizableproportion of the traffic using the M1extension is continuing i ts journey on theA41. The extra traffic on the A41 appears tohave simi larly encouraged some traffic to seekan alternative route via the A502.

Conclusions• There have been dramatic increases in

traffic on the North Circular Road botheast and west of Staples Corner,particularly in a westbound direction inthe a.m. peak hour.

• There has been no signi ficant decrease inflows on al ternative orbi tal routes.

• There has been a marked increase intraffic on radial routes in the vicini ty ofthe North Circular Road.

Fur ther informationThe analysis of the A406 North Circular Road,as presented in th is report, is the resul t ofstudies carried out using existing avai labledata from a number of rel iable sources. Inresponse to the DoT’s proposals to create amajor addi tion to road capaci ty throughLondon in the form of a widened NorthCircular Road, an internal GLC note has beenwri tten (TS Note 144). The findings of thisnote are based on forecasts made using theGLC Transport Model (STEM ). Three separateforecasts were made: two ‘ful l ’ forecastsal lowing for reassignment, modal spl i t andredistribution (one wi th DoT extra capaci tyand one wi thout); and one forecast al lowingjust for reassignment.

Using just the reassignment forecast i t wasfound that there would be substantialimprovements to travel speeds on thehighway network. However, the full forecastsshowed that by increasing capaci ty on theNorth Circular Road there would be:

• a substantial transfer of publ ic transporttrips to private cars;

• a substantial increase in car mi leage; and• much reduced travel resource benefi ts,

compared wi th reassignment case alone.These findings are very important in

helping to show that increases in orbi tal road

Table 19: 24-hour two-way flows on the North Circular Road east of Staples Corner

1975/6 1978/9 1981/2 % change (1975/6-1981/2)Section of A406Staples Corner-A41 46,250 86,950 98,050 +112A41-A502 49,950 62,900 66,600 +33A502-A1 49,950 62,900 62,900 +26A1-A598 85,100 88,800 98,050 +15East of A598 85,100 86,950 86,950 +2


Table 20: 24-hour two-way flows on radial routes in inner north-west London

1975/6 1978/9 1981/2 % change (1975/6-1981/2)

A40 75,600 72,200 79,600 +5A404 25,900 27,800 25,900 0A4088 48,100 27,800 46,300 -4A5 27,800 27,800 27,800 0A41 59,200 64,750 72,150 +22A502 20,350 25,900 25,900 +27A598 27,750 29,600 25,900 -7Total 284,700 275,850 303,500 +7




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capaci ty and the overal l increases in roadtraffic induced in the medium and longerterm, when the effects on trip length andmodal choice are considered, offer much moremodest overal l road user travel benefi ts andmore substantial non-road user disbenefi tsthan are frequently forecast when route choiceeffects alone are considered. In addi tion,reduced publ ic transport patronage andrevenues wi l l encourage reduced publ ictransport service levels and a furthermul tipl ication of net benefi t losses.

M25 (A1(M)–M11)Background to the M25The basis of the M25 has i ts origins in the1967 Greater London Development Plan’sconcept of the London Ringways. This putforward a p lan for four motorways runningconcentrical ly around London:

Ringway 1 running at a distance of 4 or 5km from the ci ty centre;Ringway 2 circl ing the edge of innerLondon;Ringway 3 cutting through the outersuburbs; andRingway 4 si tuated outside the GreaterLondon area.

The fi rst three were abandoned in 1973, butRingway 4 remained as a model for the M25orbi tal motorway, and at the time time ofwri ting is approximately two-th irds complete(see Figure 1).

The north and north-east sections of themotorway, wi th which th is report isconcerned, ini tial ly took shape wi th theconstruction of the A1178 North Orbi tal Road(later to be incorporated into the M25) in1975, completing a section of motorway thatl inked the A1(M) at South Mimms to the A10.This stood isolated unti l January 1984 when asection running from the A1(M) to the M11was completed, creating an unbroken stretchfrom the A1(M) to the Dartford Tunnel . It isthe effect of these two stretches of motorwayon traffic patterns that is to be examined.

Sources of informationThe majori ty of the traffic data used in theanalysis of this section of the M25 wasprovided by the regular surveys carried out forthe GLC’s traffic moni toring programme by theIntel l igence Uni t. Particular use has beenmade of the tw o-yearly manual counts oftraffic crossing the Northern Screenl ine(Figure 2). The screenl ine is divided into fourareas of London in order to faci l i tate generalcomparisons of the recorded traffic patterns.The traffic moni toring data have beensupplemented by the resul ts of a before-and-after study carried out by the HertfordshireCounty Counci l Highways Department inconjunction wi th the GLC and other authori -ties. This study w as undertaken to assess theini tial traffic effects of the opening of thesection of the M 25 between the A10 and theM11. Traffic data was col lected on the RiverLea Screenl ine. The ‘before’ counts were takenduring November 1983 (two months beforethe opening) and the ‘after’ counts duringFebruary and March 1984. As wi th theWestway before-and-after study the resul tscan be regarded only as the ini tial effects ofthe opening of the new road.

Unl ike some analysis in this report, nocontrol was used wi th which to compare thenorth and north-east sections of the M25 dueto the fact that the road configuration isunique to London. However, due to thecomprehensive nature of the avai lable dataand owing to the fact that a recent before-and-after study has been completed, a rel iablehistorical comparison can be made.

General traffic growth in the areaTable 21 presents the changes in 12-hourtraffic at the Northern Screenl ine over a 10-year period. The growth in 12-hour flow s foral l roads crossing the Northern Screenl inebetween 1974 and 1984 was 27%. Al l theareas of London covered by the NorthernScreenl ine have experienced growth duringthis period but perhaps the most in terestingfeature is the change in traffic in the externalarea, which includes the M 25. From 1974 to1984, traffic in the external area increased bymore than 500%. This magni tude of growthcan be accounted for by the dramatic increasein traffic on the M25 over this period.

The effect of the M25It wi l l be noted that the opening of the twosections of the M25 under consideration havehad a signi ficant effect on traffic. From 1974to 1976, during the period the A1(M ) to A10section of the orbital road was opened, therewas a 100% increase in traffic in the external

Table 21: 12-hour (0700-1900) two-way flows at the Northern Screenline

000’s of vehicles 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 % change (1974-84)

Central area 223 221 240 227 232 240 +8Inner area 68 83 73 101 101 114 +68Outer area 153 148 160 172 164 166 +8External area (incl. M25) 9 18 21 26 32 55 +511

Total 453 470 484 526 529 575 +27

M25 - 12 14 18 25 41 +242*

A406 30 28 32 32 31 32 +7

* % change 1976-84

Source: Traffic Monitoring Review 1984, GLC



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area. The M25, which in 1974 did notcontribute at al l to traffic in the external area,was in 1976 accounting for 67% of the traffic.From 1976 to 1982 there was an overal lgrowth in traffic in the external area of 78%(or 13% p.a.) and a 108% increase in flow s onthe M25 (18% p.a.). During the two-year

period from 1982 to 1984 the A10 to M11section of the M25 was opened. The growth intraffic in the external area for this period was72% (36% p.a.) whi lst the flows on the M25increased by 64% (32% p.a.). Traffic on theM25 in 1984 was 75% of total traffic in theexternal area. For the periods 1974 to 1976and 1982 to 1984 traffic growth in the externalarea accounted for 52% and 54% respectivelyof total growth at the Northern Screenl ine.

It is evident that traffic on the M25 hasincreased at a disproportionate rate to Londonas a whole and i t is important to define theorigins of this extra traffic. The majoral ternative orbi tal route around north andnorth-east London is the A406 North CircularRoad. If reassignment were taking place i twould be expected that the A406 w ould beaffected in some manner.

From 1974 to 1976 traffic on the A406decreased by 7% (200 vehicles). Traffic on theM25 increased by 12,000 vehicles. Amaximum of 17% of th is increase could havebeen traffic reassigned from the A406. Duringthe period from 1976 to 1982 traffic on theA406 grew by 11% (or 1.8% p.a.). From 1982to 1984 traffic on the A406 increased by just3% wi th traffic on the M25 experiencing asubstantial increase of 64%. It would appearfrom these figures that only a very smal lproportion of North Circular Road traffic isbeing reassigned to the M 25.

The data col lected by the GLC andHertfordshire County Counci l on roads northand south of the M25 at the River LeaScreenl ine present a clear picture of thechange in traffic in an M25 corridor (seeFigure 14). The ‘before’ counts were taken inNovember 1983 and the ‘after’ counts duringFebruary and March 1984. Because the countswere taken at di fferent times of the year, thedata have been factored to remove seasonalvariation. The A11 and the A13, al thoughcrossing the screenl ine were not counted asthey mainly carry radial traffic which wouldnot divert to this section of the M25.

From Table 22 i t can be seen that 40,487vehicles are currently using the A10–A121section of the M 25. At the maximum, 57% ofthese (23,100 vehicles) are reassigned traffic.Consequently i t can be stated that the M25 hasgenerated large volumes of extra traffic.

It is unl ikely that there has been a markedchange in the modal spl i t resul ting in atransfer from publ ic transport to car usage onthe M25. The area is not wel l served by busservices, nor is there a nearby rai lway service.Nevertheless, i t is possible that some tripspreviously made to di fferent destinations bypubl ic transport have transferred to the M25.

Figure 14: M25 corridor



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Table 22: 12-hour (0700-1900) two-way flows at the River Lea Screenline before andafter opening of the M25 (A 10–M11)

Before After Difference % changeA414 13,416 9,766 -3,830 -26B181 2,735 2,501 -234 -9Essex Road 7,550 7,076 -474 -6B194 9,427 8,453 -974 -10A121 23,721 17,850 -5,871 -25A110 20,418 16,672 -3,746 -18A406 43,801 39,755 -4,046 -9A503 25,381 24,263 -1,118 -4A102 53,397 50,140 3,257 -6Sub-total 199,576 176,476 -23,100 -12

M25 (A10–A121) - 40,487 +40,487 -

Grand Total 199,576 216,963 +17,387 +9

Source: GLC/Hertfordshire County Council.

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Greater London as a whole. In addi tion, thedi fferent categories of traffic growth have beenexamined.

A total of six major roads have beenselected for analysis and for each of these acorridor or study area has been defined inwhich trends in traffic have been examined.Where traffic growth has been evident, thepossible sources of extra traffic have beenexamined.

In every case where a new road has beenconstructed or there have been substantialal terations to an existing road, there has beena marked increase in traffic not only on theroad itsel f but also in the defined corridor orstudy area.

Some of the traffic increase on a new roadmay have been reassigned from other roads inthe vicini ty, al though th is is not alwaysapparent since the rel ief afforded to theseroads appears to be quickly absorbed by othertraffic. However, the majori ty of the totaltraffic increase has not been reassigned and i tis clear from the evidence which has beenpresented that substantial volumes of traffichave been generated by the introduction ofmajor new h ighway faci l i ties. This addi tionaltraffic can add to congestion and resul t indetrimental environmental consequences.This in turn can lead to a vicious circle ofroad bui lding.

Thus i t would appear that trafficredistribution and new traffic are the majorcomponents of the M 25’s generated trips.

Conclusions• The A1(M ) to M11 section of the M25 is

currently carrying in excess of 40,000vehicles a day.

• Traffic growth on the M25 has occurredat a dramatic rate. Over eight years i t is242%.

• Approximately a hal f of the growth intraffic can be accounted for byreassignment. The M 25, therefore, isgenerating large volumes of traffic.

• Traffic generation is l ikely to be duemainly to redistributed and new traffic.The longer term effects have yet to takeplace.

Summary and Conclusions

This paper examines the premise that traffic isgenerated by the construction of major newroads. A l though th is theory has long beenexpounded, its occurrence is not welldocumented.

As evidence, this paper uti l ises rel iable,existing traffic data from a number of sourcesas wel l as past studies of road schemes wherethese are avai lable. Information has beenprovided to show how traffic has grown in

PRA Note 1” GLC, London.Hertfordshire County Counci l (1984) “M25 (A10–M11)Before and After Study” Hertfordshire County Council.Lei tch, G (1977) Report of the Advisory Committee onTrunk Road Assessment, Department of Transport, HMSO,London.London Borough of Brent (1984) “A406 London NorthCircular Road (Hanger Lane to Harrow Road) Publ ic Inquiry,Document 65a” London Borough of Brent.O'Flaherty, C.A. (1974) Highways and Traffic (volume 1)Edw ard Arnold, London.OPCS (1983) “Census 1981 County Reports” (Essex andHertfordshire) Office of Population Censuses and Surveys,HMSO, London.Road Research laboratory (1960) “The London-BirminghamMotorway: Traffic and Economics” RRL, Crowthorne.

References

Bressey, C.H. (1937) Highway Development Survey HMSO,London.Department of Transport (1984) National Road TrafficForecast HMSO, London.Gardner, K.E. (1985) “Moni toring the effects of the comple-tion of the north-east sector of the M25” GLC, London.Greater London Counci l Information Uni t (1969) “Depart-ment of Planning and Transportation: Research M emoran-dum No. 195” GLC, London.____ (1971) “Background Paper No. 494: Westway: anenvironmental and traffic appraisal” GLC, London.____ (1984) “Statistical Series No 33: Traffic Moni toringReview” GLC, London.____ (1984) “Transportation and Development Department:TS Note 144” GLC, London.____ (1985) “Transportation and Development Department:



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Documents

World Transport Policy & Practice · Engineering, Delft, The Netherlands. Mikel Murga, Leber Planification e Ingenieria S ... Spain. P ublisher Eco-Logica Ltd., 53 Derwent Road, Lancaster,