WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Fortieth session Colombo, Sri Lanka 25 February to 1 March 2013

FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY WRD/PTC-40/Doc. 3.2 (4) (22.II.2013) ______________ ENGLISH ONLY

REVIEW OF THE 2012 CYCLONE SEASON

Reports of Members on the impact of tropical cyclones (Submitted by Maldives)

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SRILANKA 25 FEB – 1 MARCH 2013

Tropical Cyclone Season – 2012

Severe Weather Situation Report 21 October to 01 November 2012

Low pressure systems/ depressions and cyclonic activity “Murjan” (18 to 21 Oct 2012) and

“Nilam” (21 to 31 Oct 2012) resulted severe weather phenomenon in Maldives and caused

damages at many islands. The drivers, characteristics, impacts of severe weather system are

discussed in the following section.

1. Weather Drivers’ Features

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Sub Tropical Westerly Jet (STWJ), Sub Tropical

Ridge are the major drivers for the severe weather event. The situation and characteristics of

the drivers, especially the deviation from the normal is presented in Table-1

Table-1: Status of severe weather drivers during 18 to 31 October 2012

Driver Normal 18th

to 24th

October 2012 25th

to 31st Oct 2012

ITCZ Location

around 5.0°N

Located around 10.0N

because of amplified trough

in the equatorial easterly

wave moved westwards over

Indian region, which also

resulted in formation of

Cyclonic storm MURJAN

over Arabian Sea

Located around 10.0N because of

amplified trough in the equatorial

easterly wave moved westwards over

Indian region, which also resulted in

formation of Cyclonic storm MURJAN

over Arabian Sea

STWJ‟s Core wind

speed at 200hpa

is normally

above 60 knots

Core oscillated between

22.0N and 30.0N with the

wind speed between 84-104

knots at or near 200hpa.

STWJ exhibited a dual core,

one at Lat 22.oN and other at

30.0N on 21st October 2012.

85-100knots is observed during the 25

to 28 October 2012. Also it got shifted

southwards 23.0N during first week

and 29.0N during second week because

of Anticyclone shifts

Sub

Tropical

Ridge

significant high

pressure belt

situated around

latitudes of

30.0N and

30.0S

Located over Indian region

between latitude 12N and

15N at 200 hpa.

During the 25 Oct 2012, it was located

around 15N and during 26th

& 28th

, it was

located between Lat 5-6N. It again shifted

northwards and located between Lat 12-

17N at 200hpa. This wide variation

observed was also in tune with the

northward shift in the ITCZ associated with

active cyclogenesis during the period. Source: Indian Meteorological Department

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During October 23rd

to 31st Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) with its enhanced activity in

Indian Ocean region also aggravated severe weather conditions.

2. Impact of weather drivers on synoptic features

Under the influence of weather drivers described above, two lows were seen 20 October 2012 18 UTC

and 27 October 2012 18 UTC (Figure -1), which caused the heavy rainfall episodes during 21 to 31

October 2012. Low seen on 20 October 2012 18 UTC near southern Maldives caused heavy rainfall

during 22 October 2012 in southern and central part of Maldives. This low intensified and moved

west of Maldives and manifested as cyclone „MURJAN‟ and made a land fall on Somalia Coast on 25

October. Further, another Low developed near northern Maldives during 27 October 2012 18 UTC

brought heavy rainfall episodes in Northern part of Maldives.

Source: Thai Meteorological Department. Figure 1: TMD Weather Chart on a) Top panel - 20 October 2012 18 UTC b) Bottom panel – 27

October 2012 18 UTC

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“Depression formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal at 06:00 UTC of

28 October 2012 near latitude 9.5°N and longitude 86.0°E moved westwards and intensified

into a deep depression in the morning of 29th October over southwest Bay of Bengal near

latitude 9.0°N and longitude 83.0°E, and continued to move westwards and intensified into a

Cyclonic Storm, ‘NILAM’ in the morning of 30th October over southwest Bay of Bengal off

Sri Lanka coast. The Cyclonic Storm, NILAM then moved northwestwards, crossed north

Tamilnadu coast near Mahabalipuram, south of Chennai between 1600 and 1700 hrs IST of

31st October 2012. After the landfall the cyclonic storm, NILAM moved west-northwestwards

and weakened gradually into a deep depression and then into a depression over south

Interior Karnataka in the morning of 01st November 2012” (Source: IMD)

3. Manifestation of Weather features on Maldives

Under the influence of synoptic scale weather systems described above the Maldives

experienced 82 mm of rain to GAN - ADDU CITY on 22nd October and since then the

severe weather system remained active over the country. It became more enhanced on 24th

October by causing heavy rain over southern and central atolls. KADHDHOO – LAAMU

ATOLL received 119 mm of rain on that day. The trough further oscillated south to central to

north and rain showers were distributed through many atolls during next few days.

Figure 2 a): 27 Oct 2012.9:00UTC – CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURE Figure 2 b): 29 Oct 2012.9:00UTC –CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURE

Source: Indian Meteorological Department

Rainfall at KADHDHOO – LAAMU ATOLL and HANIMAADHOO – HAADHAALU

were 62 – 65 mm (Figure-2a) on 27th

followed by 115 and 145 mm recorded at

HANIMAADHOO on 29 October and 30 October, respectively (Figure2b). The October

monthly mean rainfall at Hanimaadhoo is 199 mm. Even a much higher intensity/ amount of

rainfall is expected in its neighbourhood. HOARAFUSHI and NOLHIVARANFARU

reported most destruction due to floods on the same day. Considering the impact level and

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recorded rainfall nearby (Hanimaadhoo & Kelaa 128mm), Maldives Meteorological Service

estimate 200mm of rainfall for Hoarafushi‟s flooding (Figure2b). In the south,

KAADEHDHOO – HUVADHU ATOLL recorded 120 mm on 31 October 2012 (Figure3).

The October monthly mean rainfall at Kaadehdhoo is 253 mm.

As the trough gets intensified the low level winds begin to pick-up from 28th

October

onwards. Strong winds were prevalent to central atolls and approximately 7 hours of steady

20knot wind were reported at the National Meteorological Centre for 28th

October. The

strong wind duration was prolonged further until end of October and part of southern atolls

also reported strong wind on 31st October. The first tornado hit HULHUMEEDHOO –

ADDU CITY on the afternoon hours of 29th

October and the second one around 6 pm in

FEYDHOO – ADDU CITY. Both funnel clouds brought successive damages and huge

losses.

Source: Indian Meteorological Department

Figure 3. 31 Oct 2012 9:00 UTC – Cloud Top Temperature

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4. Forecasting

Global Numerical Weather Production products

Products of various numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and dynamical-statistical

models received through internet, presented in Figure 4 were utilized.

UMETSAT : 30-10-2012 at 18:30hrs LT TC “NILAM” track by IMD

NCEP NWP model : forecast 30-10-2012 at 17:00hrs LT Quantitative Precipitation Estimate by Kalpana1 : 30-10-2012 at 17:00hrs

LT

FY2E from PMD : 30-10-2012 at 00:00hrs LT NOGAPS NWP forecast : 31-12-2012 at 23:00hrs LT

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Figure 4: Global / Regional Forecast Products

RIMES Experimental Forecast

RIMES shared its experimental forecast on 29th

October 2012 for NILAM Cyclone about the

characteristics of the cyclone, The landfall of Cyclone NILAM on 31October 2012 was well

predicted by RIMES WRF experimental forecast, the model parameters are as follows NCEP

28th

October 2012 initial condition, Model Run on 27KM Grid Resolution, 27 Vertical

Pressure Levels, 80 Grid points in X-direction, 160 points Y-direction, USGS 5min Terrain

Data, Run for Single Cycle. The six hourly forecast simulations for wind speed and rainfall

parameters were shared to MMS and the forecasted information is presented in Figure 5 and

Figure 6.

Figure 5: Wind speed (m3/s) forecast for 30/11/2012 based on initial condition 28th October 2012

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Figure 6: 24 hours accumulated rainfall (mm) forecast based on initial condition 28th October 2012. a) Left 29/102012

accumulated rainfall b) Right – 30/10/2012 accumulated rainfall

Figure 6C: 31/10/2012 accumulated rainfall. (24 hours accumulated rainfall (mm) forecast based on initial condition 28th

October 2012)

5. Damages

The observed impacts during the period reported by Atoll/ Island Councils, National Defense

Force (MNDF), Police, NDMC and media were huge and fairly widespread. The cost of the

damage caused by flooding and tornado are expected to rise to millions.

Some of the observed crucial impacts are presented in Table-2

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Table 2: Observed Impacts in Maldives

Place Characteristics Impacts

Hoarafushi

Island

Nolhivaranfaru

Heavy rains started in the late

afternoon on 29/10/2012 rain

continuous till 30th

Heavy rain on 30th

Flooding of up to five feet

Flood waters damaged furniture and

electrical wiring in 95 households.

Forced several residents of Hoarafushi to

evacuate their homes

47 houses and sewerage system affected

Ihavandhoo,

Dhidhdhoo,

Kela and Baarah

Nonstop heavy rain from 5:00

in the afternoon till 1:00 in the

night in Ihavandhoo on

31/10/2012

Islands have been devastated and farms have

been flooded

Laamu Atoll -

Gan Thundi,

Isdhoo

Heavy down pour from 5:00

am till 3.00pm at a rate of

22mm/hr on 30/10/2012

Many materials has been damaged

Maldivian flight had to divert

Addu City

Hulhumeedhoo

Feydhoo

Tornado hit on 29/10/2012 at

12:30 PM

Tornado hit on 29/10/2012 at

18:15 PM

Couple of roofs and some structural damages

7 Households in danger, 2 houses severely

hit, uprooted trees damaged plantations

Dhanbindhoo

Island

Laamu Atoll

Tornado hit on 31/10/2012 at

09:15 AM Roof of a storage house was blown

Source: NDMC,MNDF,Police,Councils and local media.

The flood event in Fuvahmulah – 6 November 2012

The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted southwards close to equator on 5th

November and very intense convective clouds formed over southern Maldives. Torrential rain

and severe flooding were reported in Fuvahmulah measuring 132 millimeters on 6th

November 2012.

Source: MMS Automatic Weather Station in Fuvahmulah Island

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CMACast Maldives (FY2D): 06-11-2012 at 11:30hrs LT CMACast Maldives (FY2D): 06-11-2012 at 11:30hrs LT

NCEP model products NCEP model products

The impact of this flooding was widespread affecting many households, crops, and water

sewerage systems.

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5. 1 Meteorological Component

Upper Air Observation

Radio-Sonde observations at the Meteorological Office, Gan (WMO # 43599) were done

until March 2012 and thereafter due to shortage of consumables Radio Sonde observations

were terminated. No observations were done at Male‟ (WMO # 43555) during 2012 due to

unavailability of equipment and consumables.

CSU Sounding launch Male’- Maldives by Dynamo Experiment

As the location of Maldives in the Indian Ocean happens to be a data sparse area in which

shifting of ITCZ and phases of MJO take place. Therefore, upper air observations from both

Male‟ and Gan are very important to entire meteorological community in the region and

globe. Maldives urge assistance from donors and Panel Members to consider rebuilding our

upper air observation network.

Observations

Maldives has 5 meteorological stations all are manned 24 hours, both synoptic and aviation

reports are made on all five stations. Only one of them is categorized additionally as upper-air

station.

- Hanimaadhoo (43533) Synoptic and Aviation Reports

- Male‟ (43555) Synoptic and Aviation Reports

- Kadhdhoo (43577) Synoptic and Aviation Reports

- Kaadehdhoo (43588) Synoptic and Aviation Reports

- Gan (43599) Synoptic and Aviation Reports + Radio Sonde

Total of 23 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) has been installed and are in operation.

However sustaining of these AWS have become difficult due to financial limitations year

after year. As a result, only 9 stations are sending out data to the National Meteorological

Centre at present.

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Rainfall Stations

Across the country, Maldives has 7 rainfall stations which measure only accumulated rainfall

for 24 hours and reading are collected at 0300UTC for national use only.

- HA. Kela

- Sh. Funadhoo

- B. Dharavandhoo

- M. Muli

- Dh. Kudahuvadhoo

- Th. Veymandoo

- Gn. Fuvanmulah

Meteorological Satellites.

Digital Meteorological Data Dissemination (DMDD) system donated by India

Meteorological Department (IMD) receives WMO coded GTS data, half hourly cloud

imagery from KALPANA and Fax charts in LRIT/HRIT format transmitted by IMD and

display on a high resolution color monitor. Images can be further enhanced using different

image processing functions and can be focused more on the area of interest. This system has

the capability to plot the received met data by values or contours on a specific image. With all

these features it helps forecasters to do more precise predictions. However, this system is

facing signal loss therefore nothing has been received during 2012.

The High Resolution Satellite Image Receiving System GEOSAT 500 has stopped functioning

since 2010. It is required to pay a considerably high amount to the manufacturer to renew its service

agreement.

An integrated satellite receiving system generously donated by China Meteorological Agency was

installed on 25 October 2012. This CMACast system receives Satellite imageries from FY2E and

FY2D series of Chinese geostationary satellites at an interval of 30 minutes. Surface synoptic data,

Upper air sounding data, NWPs of ECMWF, T213: NWPs of CMA global model, NWP accumulation

preci from Germany model and Japan model. Another component of this system is the application

software MICAPS (meteorological data analyzing system) which enables to display satellite

pictures, surface & upper air data and NWP products and overlay different products and analysis of

various weather phenomena.

Doppler Weather Radar

Doppler Weather Radar received as part of Multi-hazard Early Warning System has been

repaired in 2011. However, it needs further calibration of equipment by a professional and local

technicians are unable to do the job. MMS have begun the process of hiring an expert to bring this

system to normal.

Numerical Weather Prediction

The system which runs WRF model gives problems time to time as the hardware become old

and it is impossible to upgrade them due to financial crisis. Maldives Meteorological Service

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continues to use NWP output provided by RIMES, ECMWF, IMD and other web based NWP

products.

Telecommunications

The 10mbps internet service and the computer based telecommunication system between the

local Meteorological Offices and the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), functioned

very well.

NMC’s Global Telecommunications System (GTS) and Message Switching System (MSS)

MESSIR-COMM message switching system developed by COROBOR is a TCP/IP based

multi-channel communication link that is capable of handling vast amount of data. Although

this GTS is in operation throughout 2012, Maldives received many complains from other

countries and GCOS of not receiving our SYNOPs, RS observation (TEMP) messages

through GTS. Likewise, the monthly CLIMAT report sent via GTS is also reported not

received by users. Efforts have been made in late 2011 – 2012 in consultation with RTH New

Delhi in this regard and still this matter needed to be taken care of and work closely to arrive

at a sustainable solution.

Meteorological information through internet

The official website of the Maldives Meteorological Service www.meteorology.gov.mv has

served its users with current weather updates, forecasts, warnings, met reports and aviation

weather charts.

*****************************

5. 2 Hydrological Component There are no much hydrological issues in the Maldives; only a few lakes or swamps exist

here.

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5. 3 Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Component

Maldives Meteorological Service is the authoritative organization in the country for issuing

advisories and warnings related to meteorological, hydrological, tectonic and oceanographic

disasters. To accomplish these tasks, MMS has prepared the Standard Operating Procedures

(SOP) to act upon any likely event of meteorological, hydrological, tectonic and

oceanographic disasters. MMS acquired a High Resolution Satellite Image Receiving System,

Doppler Weather Radar, number of Automatic Weather Stations, broadband and short-period

seismometers within the framework of establishing a National Multi-Hazard Early Warning

System. Maldives‟ sea level network comprises of three tide gauges in Hanimaadhoo, Male’

and Gan to monitor low frequency changes in sea level associated with global sea level rise

or decadal climate variations like other gauges in GLOSS network. They have been upgraded

with more sensors such as radar/ pressure/ float based water level sensors, and the reference

level float switch sensors and with these improvements, it shall even detect any slight

variations in sea level due to a tsunami wave.

Warnings and Advisories

Alert Level Description Action

1

WH

ITE

- Mean wind speed is expected or prevailed between 23 – 30 mph.

- Rainfall of more than 50 mm is expected to occur within 24 hours.

- High tidal waves are expected.

Significant weather changes expected or occurred. Look-out

for update information.

2

YELLO

W

- Mean wind speed is expected or prevailed between 30 – 40 mph.

- Torrential rain is expected and or heavy rain occurred for more than 2 hours.

- A severe thunderstorm is occurring or expected.

- Tropical Cyclone is formed or passing through effective area of Maldives.

- Significant tidal or swell waves occurring or approaching.

Concerned authorities and

people are advised to be on watch or alert.

Be ready to take preventive measures.

3

RED

- Flash flood is expected. - Tropical Cyclone is tracked towards or to cross Maldives. - Destructive tidal, swell waves or storm surge is expected.

People at risk to be evacuated from danger zones.

4 G

REEN

Condition improved (Cancelation Message) Cancel Watch or Warning.

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During 2012 Cyclone Season, the severe weather was monitored locally through the 5 Met.

Stations, 9 Automatic Weather Stations and SATELLITE image receiving system. Products of

various numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and dynamical-statistical models received

through internet were utilized to predict the variations in local atmosphere. Experimental

forecast from RIMES and Bulletins from RSMC – New Delhi were used to predict the intensity

and track of the Bay of Bengal System.

Maldives Meteorological Service followed the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) and issued

42 WHITE Alerts, 7 YELLOW Alerts and 1 RED Alert during 2012 Cyclone Season. Apart

from these, interviews/ personal briefing to sea travelers, fisherman, national defense, police,

disaster management and various media were conducted.

Apart from severe weather or tropical cyclone warnings, earthquake or tsunami warning

bulletin dispatched by Regional Tsunami Service Providers – India, Indonesia, Australia and

other centres like RIMES, JMA and PTWC were received well at MMS. All the advisories

and warnings were disseminated to public satisfactorily in time.

MMS in collaboration with RIMES convened a Monsoon Forum during 2012. This forum

serves as a national platform for its dialogue process between forecast providers and users,

with the following objectives:

1. Ensure that forecasts/ warning information products, including their uncertainties and

limitations, are communicated to and understood by users.

2. Encourage the use of forecasts to mitigate risks in climate-sensitive sectors, including,

but not limited to agriculture, water resources, disaster management, and health.

3. Receive user feedback for improving usability of forecast products.

4. Provide a platform for inter-agency coordination of policies, and sectoral plans and

programs for dealing with potential impacts of hydro-meteorological hazards.

5. Provide a platform for long-term process of understanding risks posed/opportunities

brought about by past, current, and future climate.

The first forum convened in Fuvahmulah proved as a success when the November 2012 flood

event occurred there.

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5. 4 Training

Ongoing Graduate level and Post-Graduate level programs and Advance level courses funded by MMS’s regular budget.

Name of Training Program Country Duration Participants

Bachelor in Information

Technology Sri Lanka 2010-2012 1

Master‟s in Meteorology India 2010-2012 1

To build the capacity of MMS further and in accordance with the mandate and action plan,

we urgently need to train our personnel. Coordination is required in Meteorology, Aviation, and Satellite Met, WRF/WAM, climate, tsunami propagation and storm-surge modeling.

Funds are not available in 2013 regular budget for training programs.

COURSE NAME LEVEL

Overa

ll P

rio

rity

YEAR

Fu

nds C

onfirm

ed

Estim

ate

d C

osts

per

Tra

inee (

US

$)

Sectio

n / U

nit

Training

No. Required

Trained

Local

Overs

eas

and in

2013 2014 2015

Service

Advanced Meteorology Advanced Certificate

1 2 2 2 6 0 6,500.00 MET

Climatology B.SC 2 1 - 1 1 0 CLIMATE

Software Engineering B.SC 3 - 1 1 0 0 TSU

Climatology Advanced Certificate 4 1 - - 0 0 CLIMATE

Climatology Intermediate Certificate 5 1 - - 1 0 CLIMATE

Seismology Diploma 6 2 2 2 0 0 SEISMO

MultiMedia/ Graphics Design B.SC 7 1 - 1 0 0 13,700.00 TSU

Electric & Electronic Engineering Diploma 8 - 1 1 0 0 TSU

Meteorology B.SC 9 1 1 1 1 0 48,700.00 MET

Electronic Engineering B.SC 10 - 1 1 0 0 TSU

Intermediate Meteorology Certificate 11 1 1 1 7 0 3,700.00 MET

Accounting Certificate 12 1 - - 0 0 550.00 FINANCE

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5. 5 Research

Maldives hosted a Collaborative Climate Research – A scientific Project in the Indian Ocean

to better understand Global Climate & Weather Systems – Endorsed by World Climate

Research Programme.

1 October 2011 – 31 March 2012

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a 30 to 90 day tropical weather cycle that

alternates between large, strong rain storms and relatively quiet periods, moving from the

Indian Ocean eastward to the Pacific Ocean. The MJO not only plays an important role in

local weather in the tropics, affecting regional monsoon rains, but also impacts weather

and climate in other parts of the world. Improved understanding of this important event

will help short- and long-term weather forecasting and climate predictions across the globe.

The DYNAMO study is being conducted from October-March, which is the most frequent

time for the onset of the MJO.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN

The Indian Ocean is one of the Earth's most sensitive regions where the ocean and

atmosphere interact, thereby affecting global climate. The Maldives-Chagos Archipelago

provides a unique setting for this type of observational research because it is situated in a

k e y f o r m a t i o n region of t h e M J O , a n d provides an excellent location for land- and

aircraft-based measurements in the Indian Ocean.

SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES

DYNAMO will provide researchers with vital observations of the MJO, a poorly

understood phenomenon, particularly during the initiation phase. The results will help

researchers to more accurately forecast the weather and climate of the equa to r i a l

In d ian Ocean and a round the world. Large-scale weather events, such as the MJO,

create pulses that have direct effects on regional w e a t h e r patterns around the w o r l d .

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RESEARCH INSTRUMENTATION

LAND-BASED OPERATIONS

Radars and sounding systems will be located on several islands in the Maldives and on

Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory, observing cloud population and evolution.

AMF-2 Site, Gan. NCAR S-Polka Radar ( S/Ka Band) Hitahdhoo - Maldives

OCEAN-BASED OPERATIONS

Several research ships will be exploring the equatorial regions of the Indian Ocean while

collecting data. On-board instruments, such as radars, weather balloons and water samplers

will make both atmospheric and oceanic measurements of the surrounding environment.

Instrumented mooring and buoy systems will also be deployed for data collection.

JAMSTEC NOAA

AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS

Two aircraft will be based on different islands, while conducting research flights over the

Indian Ocean. The aircraft are fitted with instruments that measure numerous physical

properties of the air­ sea interface, clouds and the surrounding atmosphere.

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SAFIRE

DYNAMO is being conducted in collaboration with other agencies and field projects

including:

CINDY2011: Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year

2011.

AMIE: Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment.

U.S. FUNDING AGENCIES

NSF: National Science Foundation.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

DOE/ARM: US Department of Energy/ Atmospheric Radiation Measurement.

ONR : Office of Naval Research.

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

INTERNATIONAL COUNTRIES

o Australia

o France

o India

o Indonesia

o Japan

o Kenya

o Korea

o Maldives

o Seychelles

o Sri Lanka

o Taiwan

o United Kingdom

Learn more about DYNAMO:

http://www.eol.ucar.edu/field_projects/field-projects/dynamo

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5. 6 Publications

Panel News

Maldives contributed information on significant weather and new developments in

the meteorological service to Panel’s News Letters.

Annual Climate Report Maldives Meteorological Service publishes Annual Climate Report every year.

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