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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
World LNG Report-2018
-industry trends-
Satoshi Yoshida
General Manager, International Section,
Policy and Planning Department
Japan Gas Association
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
International Gas Union (IGU)
✓ Founded in 1931, Represents More Than 160 Member Organizations and
Corporations of the Global Natural Gas Industry from 90 countries
✓ Represents over 97% of Global Natural Gas Market
✓ Objectives: To Serve“As the Global Voice of Gas” and
“Seeks to Improve the Quality of Life by Advancing Gas as a Key
Contributor to a Sustainable Energy Future.”
Who we are…
2
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
IGU Publications2018✓ 2018 World LNG Report
✓ Whole Gas Price Survey, 2018 Edition
✓ Case study in Improving Urban Air Quality – Third Edition, March 2018
✓ Best Practices in Governance and Regulation
✓ The Importance of Methane Emissions Mitigation
✓ Social License to Operate: Case Studies
✓ Natural Gas – Fuel of choice towards clean mobility
✓ Gas People Index 2018. Workforce Development Taskforce Report
✓ Natural Gas: the essential fuel for industry in a sustainable future
and more…………………..
2017✓ The Natural Gas Industry Methane Emissions Challenge
✓ Understanding Methane’s Impact on Climate Change
✓ IGU Wholesale Gas Price Report 2017
✓ Natural Gas Global Insights – 2017 Edition
✓ IGU World LNG Report
✓ Enabling Clear Marine transportation, March 2017
and more…………………..
2016✓ Global Gas Markets Supporting Growth and Sustainability
✓ Case Studies Improving Air Quality, Second edition (European cities), November 2016
✓ IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey, May 2016
✓ Case studies Enabling Clean Energies, April 2016
✓ IGU World LNG Report, April 2016
and more………………….
3
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
2018 World LNG Report
Contents;
✓ LNG Trade
✓ Liquefaction Plants
✓ LNG Carriers (Shipping)
✓ LNG Receiving Terminals
✓ FLNG
✓ Looking Ahead
✓ Appendix
To download the full report visit; www. igu.org.
4
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
LNG Supply in 2017
3.7
0.3 0.0
-0.4
11.9
1.50.7 0.3
-0.4
2.9 2.80.8 0.3 0.20.2 0.10.3
-0.2
10.2
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Au
stra
lia,
56.2
US,
13.1
Qa
tar,
81
An
go
la, 3.7
Nig
eria
, 21
.3
Ma
laysi
a,
26.4
Alg
eria
, 12
.4
Bru
ne
i, 7
PN
G,
7.7
Ru
ssia
, 1
1.1
Om
an
, 8
.4
Eg
yp
t, 0
.8
Trin
ida
d,
10.8
Eq
. G
uin
ea
, 3.6
Pe
ru, 4
.1
Ye
me
n,
0
No
rwa
y, 4.1
Ind
on
esi
a, 16
.2
UA
E,
5.2
MTP
A
North America Europe FSU Latin America
• LNG supply grew 35.2 MT in 2017 and reached 293.1 MT.
• This increase was driven by higher production in Australia and US
Source: IHS, IGU
Wheatstne LNG – Courtesy Chevron
5
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
LNG Demand in 2017• LNG demand reached 293.1 MT.
• China accounted for over one-third of net demand growth, rising by 12.7 MTby a strong enforcement of environmental policy
-1.1
12.7
2.41.5
4.9
1.81.1 1.0 0.3
2.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.50.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
-2.5
0.3 0.2
-0.3-0.4
1.1 0.4
-0.7
0.8 0.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Chin
a,
39
.5
S.
Ko
rea,
38
.6
Pa
kis
tan
, 5
.1
Sp
ain
, 1
2.2
Turk
ey, 7.8
Fra
nce, 7
.6
Taiw
an
, 1
6.8
India
, 20
.7
Po
rtug
al, 2
.8
Ita
ly, 6
Ja
pa
n, 8
4.5
Ku
wait,
4.3
Tha
iland
, 3
.9
Mexic
o,
4.9
Gre
ece,
1.1
Po
lan
d,
1.3
Jo
rdan
, 3
.4
Neth
erlan
ds,
0.8
Bra
zil,
1.5
Mala
ysia
, 1
.4
Oth
er
, 10
.2
Malta
, 0
.3
Dom
. R
ep.,
1
Pu
ert
o R
ico, 1
Arg
en
tina
, 3.2
UA
E,
2.2
Eg
ypt,
6.2
UK
, 4.9
MT
PA
Africa Asia Asia-Pacific Europe
Source: IHS, IGU
6
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
LNG Exports by Region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
MT
PA
North America
Europe
FSU
Latin America
Africa
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Note: FSU = Former Soviet Union
Source: IHS, IGU
• Asia Pacific region is still leading LNG export adding another 14MT totalling 113.5MT in 2017.
• The Middle East remained the clear second-place.
7
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
Price and “non-long term” trade
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
% S
hare
MTP
A
Non Long-Term Trade
% of Total LNG Trade(right axis)
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$/m
mB
tu
US (Henry Hub) UK (NBP)
German Border Price Japan (based on LNG)
NE Asia Spot Price
Source: IHS, Cedigaz, US DOE
Source: IHS, IGU
• Seasonal tightness in the global LNG market is very possible..
• Non long-term trade accounted for 30% of total gross LNG trade.
Monthly Average Regional Gas Prices, 2010-Jan.2018 Non Long-Term Volumes, 1995-2017
8
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
0
100
200
300
400
500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MT
PA
Other Qatar Australia United States
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MT
PA
Global Liquefaction Capacity% of Capacity Utilised (right axis)
Fo
recast
Liquefaction
Source: IHS, Public AnnouncementsSource: IHS, Company Announcements
• Global capacity utilisation was 84%, up 2% from 2016
• From 2017 to 2023, it is forecast to increase by 28% to 460 MTPA largely thanks to the contribution of US capacity increase
84% 360
460
Global Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out / Capacity Utilization Post-FID Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out 2017-2023
9
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
New Markets
Source: IHS, IGU, Public Announcements FSRU CHALLENGER – Courtesy MOL
• 45 MTPA was constructed in 2017 and reached 851MTPA.
• FSRUs have played a larger role in allowing new markets to access LNG supply.
Global Receiving Terminal Capacity, 2000-2023
10
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
Shipping
Source: HIS Markit
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
# o
f vessels
Vessels delivered (right) Steam DFDE/TFDE
$'0
00/d
ay
• Global fleet added 24 vessels to reach 434
• Order book grew by 14, 4 of which were FSRUs.
• Charter rates averaged near-term low of $27k/day for ST and $44k/day for TFDE & DFDE.
Average LNG Spot Charter Rates versus Vessel Deliveries, 2012-2017
11
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
Shipping Routes
LNG Venus – Osaka Gas
Major LNG Shipping Routes, 2017
12
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
Looking Ahead
The LNG Industry in Years Ahead
✓How Will LNG Markets Balance in 2018?
✓Will LNG Contracting and Liquefaction FIDs Take Shape This Year?
✓Could Demand in Mature Asian Markets Surprise to the Upside Again?
✓What Strategies Will Be Used to Address Emerging Markets?
✓What New Markets Will Begin Imports in 2018?
✓Will the Global LNG Market Move More Toward Commoditization or Consolidation?
✓・・・・・・
✓・・・・
✓・・
13
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
Members of World LNG Report Task Force 2018
• Chevron, USA
• American Gas Association , USA
• Anadarko, USA
• Bureau Veritas, France
• Enagás, Spain
• ENH, Cameroon
• Gas Natural Fenosa, Spain
• GIIGNL, France
• KOGAS, South Korea
• Osaka Gas, Japan
• Toho Gas, Japan
Consultant – IHS Market
to download visit; www. igu.org14
2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union
The Japan Gas Association
Thank you
Satoshi YoshidaGeneral Manager,
International Relations, Policy and Planning Department
Japan Gas Association (Charter member of IGU)