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Prepared for METI
By
Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht
World Fuel EthanolAnalysis and Outlook
資料４
2
World Fuel EthanolSome basic concepts
•By production route:Fermentation vs. Synthetic
• By composition:Anhydrous vs. Hydrous
• By end-use:Beverage, Industrial, Fuel
3
World Fuel EthanolThe production route
•Synthetic ethanol:Ethylene, coal; non-renewable
• Fermentation ethanol:Grains, sugar crops, tapioca, wood etc;renewable
4
World Fuel EthanolThe largest synthetic producers
SasolSADAF
BPEquistar
SodesMossgas
Japan EthanolJilin Chemicals
NeftochimChempetrol
Aprechim
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Capacity (1000 tonnes/y)
5
World Fuel EthanolShare of synthetic ethanol
Fermentation 95%Synthetic 5%
6
World Fuel EthanolComposition
•Anhydrous:99° pure, may be used in fuel blends.
• Hydrous:96° pure, may be used as 100% fuelsubstitute.
7
World Fuel EthanolFuel alcohol in Brazil
1970 1980 1990 2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Hydrous Anhydrous
mln
litr
es
8
World Fuel EthanolEnd use
•Beverage alcohol:Alcoholic spirits: vodka, shochu etc.
•Industrial alcohol:Cosmetics, paints, inks.
•Fuel alcohol:Blends or pure form.
9
World Fuel EthanolEthanol production by type
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Industrial Beverage Fuel
in m
ln li
tres
10
World Fuel Ethanol 1993
Grains
Sugar
World Fuel Ethanol 1993
Grains
Sugar
11
World Fuel Ethanol 2003
Grains
Sugar
12
World Fuel Ethanol 2013
Sugar
Grains
13
World Fuel EthanolThe drivers of growth I
• Ethanol is good for the environment(Kyoto)
• good for rural areas
• reduces dependence on oil imports
• enhances technological knowledge base
14
World Fuel EthanolThe drivers of growth II
• Demand is virtually unlimited.
• Cost reduction potential is huge.
• A tried and tested technology.
15
World Fuel EthanolSuccess factors for biofuels
• Feedstocks• Technology
• Policy
16
World Fuel EthanolWorld fuel ethanol production by feedstock
Sugar crops 61%
Grains 39%
17
World Fuel EthanolEthanol yields per ha
France (beet)
Brazil (cane)
USA (corn)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Production (litres/ha)
18
World Fuel EthanolEthanol yields per tonne of feedstock
France (beet)
Brazil (cane)
USA (corn)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Production (litres/tonne)
19
World Fuel EthanolGross feedstock costs per litre of fuel ethanol
France (beet)
Brazil (cane)
USA (corn)
0 5 10 15 20 25
Costs (US Cents/litre)
20
World Fuel EthanolEnergy balance by feedstock
Sugar cane
Biomass
Sugar beet
US corn
Wheat
RME (Biodiesel)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Energy output/Energy input
21
World Fuel EthanolThe case for political support
• Ethanol may serve sociallydesirable goals but it...
• is more expensive than gasoline
• faces an unfavourable opportunity coststructure
22
World Fuel EthanolProduction cost reducing subsidies
• Feedstock price support.
• Capital cost support.
• Income tax concessions.
23
World Fuel EthanolIncome enhancing subsidies
• Excise tax concessions.
• Guaranteed (captive) markets.
• Price guarantees.
• Direct price support
24
World Fuel EthanolEthanol in Brazil
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ethanol Gasoline
in p
er c
ent
25
World Fuel EthanolBrazil – ethanol vs. gasoline economics
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200320
30
40
50
60
70
Price advantage of alcohol over gasoline
in %
26
World Fuel EthanolBrazil‘s ethanol/methanol trade
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Imports Exports
mln
litre
s
27
World Fuel EthanolDeterminants of volatility in Brazil
• The weather: El Nino, La Nina.
• Sugar cane serves as raw material in two(four) markets:
Ø Sugar (domestic and international)
Ø Ethanol (domestic and international)
28
World Fuel EthanolBrazil – ethanol vs. sugar economics
1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
Sugar domestic Anhydrous alcohol
BR
L/k
g of
tota
l rec
over
able
sug
ars
29
World Fuel EthanolBrazil – ethanol vs. sugar economics
%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Profitability domestic sugar/ethanol
30
World Fuel EthanolBrazil – ethanol vs. sugar economics
1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Sugar exports (VHP) Anhydrous alcohol (AAC)
BR
L/k
g of
tota
l rec
over
able
sug
ars
31
World Fuel EthanolBrazil – ethanol vs. sugar economics
%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-40-30-20-10
01020304050607080
Profitability sugar exports/ethanol
32
World Fuel EthanolRemedies
• Spread cane growing over thecountry.
• Decouple ethanol from sugarproduction (dedicated ethanol-for-export plants).
33
World Fuel EthanolUS ethanol
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tax incentive (Y2) Output (Y1)
Clean Air Act
California
RFS (?)
mln
litr
es
34
World Fuel EthanolWill high stocks boost US ethanol exports?
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
Imports Exports Net trade
1000
hl
35
World Fuel EthanolThe European Union
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Sweden Spain France
1000
hl
36
World Fuel EthanolThe European Union
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
EU total
1000
hl
37
World Fuel EthanolEU to become net ethanol importer
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
-8000000
-6000000
-4000000
-2000000
0
2000000
Imports Exports
hl
38
World Fuel EthanolFuel ethanol in Asia/Pacific
• India: mandate, blending started 2003,country-wide blending seen in 2004.
• Thailand: tax reductions, investmentssubsidies.
• China: mandate in some regions.
• Australia: tax exemption, direct support.
39
World Fuel EthanolThe 2002 supply/demand balance in Asia/Pacific
JapanS Korea
SingaporePhilippines
Taiwan BrazilChina
ThailandS Arabia
S AfricaUSA
AustraliaIndia
Argentina
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Importers
Exporters
1000
hl
40
World Fuel EthanolCurrent suppliers in Asia/Pacific
• Current suppliers with potential
Ø Brazil
Ø Thailand
Ø India
Ø South Africa
41
World Fuel EthanolFuture suppliers in Asia/Pacific
• Future suppliers with potential
Ø Peru
Ø Central America
Ø Colombia
42
World Fuel EthanolThe Mega-Project in Peru
• Domestic and international effects
Ø Introduce E-10
Ø Replace MTBE/lead
Ø Fight coca (cocaine)
Ø Export to the US under Andean Pact
Ø Export to Japan
43
World Fuel EthanolExport potential under the Mega-Project
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
Exports
1000
litr
es
44
World Fuel EthanolCentral America
• Domestic and international effects
Ø Introduce E-10
Ø Replace MTBE/lead
Ø Provide alternative outlet for sugar cane
Ø Export to the US under CBI
Ø Export to Japan (?)
45
World Fuel EthanolColombia
• Domestic and international effects
Ø Introduce E-10
Ø Replace MTBE/lead
Ø Exports ?
46
World Trade in Fuel Ethanol 1990s
47
World Trade in Fuel Ethanol in the Future
48
World Fuel Ethanol ImportsBy country (very optimistic scenario)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Other Japan USA Europe
in m
ln li
tres
49
World Fuel Ethanol ImportsBy country (optimistic scenario)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Other Japan USA Europe
in m
ln li
tres
50
World Fuel Ethanol Importsvs. beverage and industrial ethanol trade
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fuel ethanol Other
in m
ln li
tres
51
World Fuel Ethanol ProductionBy country
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
EU Australia India
Thailand China ColombiaPeru Central America Canada
USA (fuel) Brazil (fuel)
in m
ln li
tres
52
World Fuel EthanolConclusions
• World production will continue to grow strongly
• Trade will grow as well but pace will depend on
• The sugar-alcohol economics
• New investments in origins
• Establishment of a viable trading system (futures)
• Solution of the subsidy issue
• Overall outlook is very bright
