World Energy Prospects to 2050

Mr. Bo Diczfalusy

Director Sustainable Energy Policy and TechnologyDirector, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology

International Energy Agency

Clean Coal Day in Japan

2012 I i l S i

© OECD/IEA 2012

2012 International Symposium

Tokyo, 4 September 2012

World energy prospects to 2050

Content of presentation:

Introduction to ETP2012 Introduction to ETP2012

Coal technologies g

Carbon capture and storage

© OECD/IEA 2012

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

6DS4DS2DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost

a vision of a sustainableenergy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario The 6 C ScenarioThe 4 C ScenarioThe 2 C Scenario

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Sustainable future still in reach

Are we on track to Can we get on Is a clean energy reach a clean

energy future?track? transition urgent?

NO ✗ YES ✓ YES ✓

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Recommendations to Governments

1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy ffi i “th hidd ” f l f th f tefficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3 A l t i ti d bli h3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

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A smart, sustainable energy system

Renewable energy resourcesCo generation

Centralised fuel productionCentralised fuel production

Renewable energy resourcesCo-generation

Centralised fuel production,power and storage

Centralised fuel production,power and storage

Smart energysystem control

Distributedenergy resources

H vehicle2

EVSurplus heat

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system.

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

Cleaner coal power Cleaner coal power

Nuclear power

Renewable power

CCS in power

Progress is too slow in

CCS in power

CCS in industry

almost all technology areas

Significant action is required

Industry

Significant action is required to get back on track Buildings

Fuel economy

Electric vehicles

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Biofuels for transport

Low-carbon electricity: a clean core

2DS

35 000

40 000

45 000 Other

Wind

Solar

2DS

25 000

30 000

35 000Hydro

Nuclear

Biomass and wasteTWh

10 000

15 000

20 000Biomass and waste

Oil

Gas with CCS

Gas

T

0

5 000

10 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gas

Coal with CCS

Coal

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Natural gas: a transitional fuel

7 5002DS

7 500

tura

l Gas

5 000

n fro

m N

atW

h

2 500

Gen

erat

ion TW

02009 2020 2030 2040 2050P

ower

G

OECD China India Other non-OECD

© OECD/IEA 2012

Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’.

The CCS infant must grow quickly

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

t CO

2

Mt CO2 M

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year

A projected 123 GtCO capt red bet een 2015 and 2050 the

© OECD/IEA 2012

A projected 123 GtCO2 captured between 2015 and 2050, the majority from power generation; in some regions, however, CO2 captured from industrial applications dominates.

Industry must become more efficient

10

12 6DS

Other industries

6

8 Chemicals and petrochemicalsAluminiumO

2

4

6 Aluminium

Pulp and paperGtC

O

0

2

2010 2020 2030 2040 20 0

Iron and steel

Cement2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

© OECD/IEA 2012

Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.

Clean energy investment pays off

With price effect

Additionalinvestment

ngs

Power

Industry

Additional investment

With price effect

Additionalinvestment

ings

Power

Industry

Additional investment

With price effect

Additionalinvestment

ngs

Power

Additional investment

Undiscounted

Without price effect

price effect

Fuel

sav

i

Transport

Residential

CommercialUndiscounted

Without price effect

price effect

Fuel

sav

i

Transport

Residential

CommercialUndiscounted

Without price effect

price effect

Fuel

sav

i

Industry

Transport

3%

Undiscounted

Tota

l sav

ings

Biomass

Coal

Fuel savings3%

Undiscounted

Tota

l sav

ings

Biomass

Coal

Fuel savings3%

Undiscounted

Tota

l sav

ings

Residential

Commercial

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

10%

T Coal

Oil

Gas- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

10%

T Coal

Oil

Gas- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

10%

T Commercial

USD trillion

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

World energy prospects to 2050

Content of presentation:p

Introduction to ETP2012

Coal technologies

C b t d t Carbon capture and storage

© OECD/IEA 2012

Fossil fuels dominate energy demand …

(EJ)

y de

man

d ar

y en

ergy

Prim

a

© OECD/IEA 2012

Efficiency improvement reduces specific fuel consumption and also reduces specific pollutant emissions.

Non-fossil power generation

TWh)

(%)

nera

tion

(

lect

ricity

Non-hydro renewables

ricity

gen

hare

of e

l

Hydro

Ele

ctr

Sh

Nuclear

Despite an increasing contrib tion across t o decades the

© OECD/IEA 2012

Despite an increasing contribution across two decades, the share of non-fossil generation has failed to keep pace with the growth in generation from fossil fuels

The size of the challenge is clear

e)co

al (M

tce

6 DS

man

d fo

r c Medium-termcoal market report

ener

gy d

em

4 DS

Prim

ary

e

2 DS

© OECD/IEA 2012

Near-term projections are not consistent with a low-carbon scenario

Reducing emissions from coal is critical

(2) R d GHG (3) R d(1) Effi i (2) Reduce non-GHG emissions

(3) ReduceCO2 emissions

(1) Efficiency improvement

© OECD/IEA 2012

Efficiency improvement reduces specific fuel consumption and also reduces specific pollutant emissions.

Advanced technology is essential re

(°C

) Advanced-USC 700oCDemonstrations are being planned from

mpe

ratu

r g p2020 - 2025

stea

m te

m

Ultra-supercritical

axim

um s

Supercritical

Subcritical

Ma Subcritical

© OECD/IEA 2012

Ultra-supercritical plants are currently operated in various countries, particularly China.

The challenge of advanced USC

Boiler Steam turbine 700-760°C 700-760°C

tube/pipe rotor/shaft700°C/ 30 - 35MPa

~GeneratorBoiler Steam turbine

Nickel-based super-alloys Ferrite/Austenitic alloys

© OECD/IEA 2012

Nickel-based super-alloys will enable plant components to withstand the temperatures to 700ºC and beyond.

World energy prospects to 2050

Content of presentation:p

Introduction to ETP2012

Coal technologies

C b t d t Carbon capture and storage

© OECD/IEA 2012

CCS is deployed globally

2DS

In the near term the largest amount of CO2 is captured in OECD

© OECD/IEA 2012

In the near term, the largest amount of CO2 is captured in OECD countries; by 2050, CO2 capture in non-OECD countries dominates.

CCS is applied in power and industry

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2/year

The majority of CO2 is captured from power generation globally but in

© OECD/IEA 2012

The majority of CO2 is captured from power generation globally, but in some regions CO2 captured from industrial applications dominates.

Where is CO2 storage needed?

Between 2015 and 2050, 123 gigatonnes of CO2 are captured that need

Note: Mass captured in GtCO2

© OECD/IEA 2012

Between 2015 and 2050, 123 gigatonnes of CO2 are captured that need to be transported to suitable sites and stored safely and effectively. Storage sites will need to be developed all around the world.

i / t

For much more, please visit

www.iea.org/etp

© OECD/IEA 2012